CONTROLLED UNCLASSIFIED INFORMATION March 23, 2009

Projected Increased Threat of Violence - Arizona/Sonora Border

Drug Cartel and Alien Smuggling Organization violence emanating from Mexico remains a pervasive
threat to the citizens and public safety officials of Arizona. At particular risk are Arizona’s Highway
Patrol Officers who are at an increased risk of contacting smugglers who have become more desperate to
protect their cargo be it narcotics or aliens. Reporting from Mexico indicates that smugglers are being
threatened with violence and possibly death to themselves and/or family members if they lose their loads.
Interdiction efforts such as the deployment of barriers and fencing have choked off critical smuggling
routes. A heavily strained economy, increased demand and a short supply of narcotics and aliens are
additional contributing factors. These developments have increased the potential for Mexican criminal
smuggling organization members to become even more aggressive and violent towards Arizona law
enforcement and public safety officials. Combined with the fact that Arizona DPS Highway Patrol
officers typically patrol alone in their vehicles because of manpower shortages and are deployed in
remote locations miles from any backup assistance; the likelihood for disaster increases exponentially.
The U.S. Border Patrol (Tucson, and Yuma sectors), has reported an escalation of aggressive behavior and
assaults toward its agents along the approximately 378 mile Arizona-Sonora border for 2008. Texas DPS
has also seen a significant rise in aggressive behavior towards law enforcement during traffic stops and
interdictions. Last year in California, just over the state line a Border Patrol Officer was run down and
killed by a smuggler at Imperial Dunes. Finally, there has been sporadic increased reporting by officers
from the field here in Arizona which draw a parallel to what is happening in other border states regarding
resistance, aggression and violence towards patrol officers during traffic stops and vehicle searches.

The current level of violence in Sonora has not been as severe compared to the enormous rise of violence
in the other Mexican States of Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Baja California. However, according to Mexican
open and official sources, the increase in murders and other violent incidents in Sonora during 2008
indicate that situation in Sonora is deteriorating and violence on both sides of the border will continue to
rise. This has created intense concern among Nogales’ citizens and caused the Mexican government to
deploy troops to the state to support local law enforcement. This deployment has also been seen as a
contributing factor to the rise of reported violence in Mexico. On the U.S. side of the border, increases in
the number of Border Patrol agents, National Guardsman, the new “virtual” border fence, and the Border
Patrol fixed and mobile checkpoints have all played a role in fortifying the border along the Arizona-
Mexico border. These efforts to secure the border with Sonora will likely become the catalyst for
increased aggression from Mexican criminal organizations towards law enforcement officers on this side
of the border. The larger deployment of Mexican military in Chihuahua combined with previous
deployments in Baja California, may force criminal organizations to focus on other routes. Sonora, with a
lesser military presence would be the natural choice in which to conduct increased smuggling operations.
If the Sonoran plaza becomes more militarized, criminal organizations must become more aggressive in
order to transport drugs, weapons, humans, and currency across the U.S.-Mexico border. This increased
desperation of drug traffickers poses a significant threat to Arizona law enforcement, especially to those
officers and canine units deployed in the southern counties of Arizona. Due the pervasive nature of
narcotics and alien smuggling, this risk cannot be completely disposed of but it could be mitigated by
filling the manpower gaps and deploying more officers and canines to the region. A stronger show of
force (more officers and canines) and determination (confidence and strength in numbers) by officers in
the border areas will have a positive effect towards deterring Mexican smuggling organizations from
engaging Arizona law enforcement officers in aggressive or violent actions.

This document is designated CONTROLLED UNCLASSIFIED INFORMATION and

secondary dissemination or public, media release is not authorized.
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