Fairy tales about the “Indian” F-16

Posted on January 21, 2018

(Block 70, F-16)

A pink paper carried a startling bit of news suggesting that Lockheed Martin had readied a variant
of its frontline F-35, in service with the US military and allied air forces, for offer to the Indian Air
Force. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/lockheed-proposes-making-custom-
built-fighter-jets-in-india/articleshow/62580903.cms

But scroll down the story a bit and one sees the catch. Vivek Lall, head of Lockheed, India, is
talking about the Northrop Grumman APG-83 AESA radar with supposed 95% commonality with
the radar on the F-35, being on the F-16 Block 70 pitched to India. This feature has led Lall to
purposely obfuscate issues and try and sell the F-16 as another version of the F-35. To tweak that
old saw some, sticking small tusks on a pig doesn’t turn it into a dangerous warthog.

As I long ago warned in my posts, Trump very early talked about retaining at least 25% of the F-16
production in the US itself — mainly to fulfill his promise to keep manufacturing jobs in America.
The last F-16 inducted in the US Air Force was in 1997. And , it is in the interest of Lockheed to
replace as fast as possible all F-16s in the US — whether in USAF or in the various state Air
National Guard (of which George W Bush was a member — his rich and influential Pappy and
former President, George HW Bush, having arranged this safe posting in the Texas unit than see
his son risk his neck in the Vietnam War) with F-35s. This essentially means that the supposed
2,000-odd F-16s in the US are not going to be there to be serviced by the aircraft spares and
assemblies produced in India.

That should at a stroke eliminate a big chunk of the incentive for India to manufacture this late-
Sixties vintage — 50 year old — combat aircraft that will be ready to move right off the Indian
assembly line and into museums or the junk yard. (This last was the denouement faced,
incidentally, by the underpowered Marut HF-24, which were flown out of HAL premises straight to
IAF aircraft graveyards!) That’s the reason why Lockheed is canvassing furiously with the Trump
White House to relent on this issue of keeping part of the F-16 production in its plant in Forth
Worth.

In any case, with the F-16 phasing out of the USAF, America’s traditional allies and partners too
will hanker for the successor F-35, which Lockheed will happily undertake to replace as well. This
will motivate Lockheed to open more assembly lines for the F-35 to meet the rush demand from
foreign customers. So, where exactly is the “international market” that Lockheed is promising for
the Indian-made F-16 and for its spares, etc.??

It surely is not merely enough to “make in India”. There has to be a market for whatever is
produced here by foreign companies beyond what the Indian market can offtake. In this context,
what to make of the song and dance that Lockheed, the Pentagon, Ashley Tellis, the US thinktanks
— Carnegie, Brookings, based in Delhi and in Washington, and the army of F-16 pluggers in the
Indian media make about India becoming part of a “global supply chain”??

Sure, the period to replace the F-16 in the fleets of numerous air forces with the F-35 will stretch
over the next 10-15 years at most. But the Blk 70 entering IAF will stay on for 40-50 years from the
year of its entry into the fleet — should this happen — by, say, 2022. Is it anyone’s argument that
this old crone of an aircraft can realistically serve until 2060-2070, when advances in air defence
technologies, evident since the late 1980s, are already making manned combat flying a frightfully
dangerous undertaking, and by 2030 will make it extinct? Like the Dodo bird. Or, the dinosaur.

It provides further proof, if it was needed, that the Indian military, like the Indian government and
its agencies, including DRDO, are not perspicacious spotters of technological trends. Or, India
wouldn’t be in the mess it is now.

Meanwhile, the wily Fiza’ya (Pakistan Air Force), which has operated the F-16 for the last 30 years,
will be desperately hoping the GOI-IAF combine afford it the opportunity to make a meal of the
prospective Indian F-16 contingent. Meanwhile, the contempt PLAAF, that is bidding fair to
achieve parity with the USAF with its unending series of new aircraft, especially the J-20, that it
seemingly effortlessly rolls out of it aircraft design bureaus and factories, feels for its Indian
counterpart will be reinforced.

So, what’s new?

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 About Bharat Karnad
Senior Fellow in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi,
he was Member of the (1st) National Security Advisory Board and the Nuclear Doctrine-
drafting Group, and author, among other books of, 'Nuclear Weapons and Indian
Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy', 'India's Nuclear Policy' and most recently,
'Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)'. Educated at the University of California
(undergrad and grad), he was Visiting Scholar at Princeton University, University of
Pennsylvania, the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and Henry L. Stimson
Center, Washington, DC.
View all posts by Bharat Karnad →

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2 Responses to Fairy tales about the “Indian” F-16

devraj says:
January 21, 2018 at 11:50 pm

Siis it possible in near future russia will get its ussr era economic and military strength i.e
on par to usa.I heartly wish it happen, it really hurts after end of ussr russia declined while
china is on economic par to usa,I cannt understand the economic strength china achived
through capitalism, russia is back ward while russian are more tallented and
Reply

devraj says:
January 22, 2018 at 12:01 am

I will heartly wish in my life time russia will regain its strength par to usa and these
selfish chinese again gets afraid of mighty bear,which is true friend of india,all
misdeeds going in strategic arena of world because of abscence of strong russia,
even india compromise to usa due to lack of strong russia,personaly i think no
indian wish to be usa stooge and leave russian side,most of us have deep
sentiments for russia.I LOVE RUSSIA
Reply

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