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Introduction
Year 2016 ended with a stress for the industry. A stress, for long term good, where each and every
handset player is more than willing to bear it for nation building. However, the initial months (3 to 4) of
2017, keeps them busy in rejuvenating the market to re-rail the things. The other challenge for them,
which again they are willingly ready welcoming, is the implementation of GST. As per the inputs
available so far, GST is going to push the prices of handsets in the range of 15 – 25% which will squeeze
the demand to some extent. However, the timing of the implementation of GST will be crucial with
Finance Minister first keeping the window of April to September open, while the recent indications are
of around July.
For the mobile industry September and October are generally the best months in terms of shipment as
well as sales. So it would be in the interest of the industry if GST is implemented before July so that
price restructuring, if any, is ironed and absorbed by the peak season.
We had said that year 2016 was the year of ‘Transformation’ for the Indian mobile handset industry.
Transformation of business models, transformation of products, channels as well as outreach. This is
where we saw the industry busy in for the whole year. However, this transformation did not happen to
the extent as expected in case of Featurephone to Smartphone uptake.
In 2017, we expect this transformation to continue with emphasis on ‘Expansion’. Based on our analysis
and interactions with the CXO’s of leading brands in India across Feature as well as Smartphones,
representing Tier I Global, Indian as well as Chinese handset makers, all their energies are going to be
around expansion. Hence, 2017 would be the year of ‘Expansion’ for the Indian mobile handset
industry.
However, the critical one would be to better the existing things by widening the scope of whatever has
been initiated in past couple of years, especially in 2016.
Outlook
CMR estimated the volume size of the India Mobile Handsets to be close to 265 million for the calendar
year 2016. As per the preliminary findings for the year, the shipments clocked 262 million units of which
Smartphones accounted for 113 million (43%) and the remaining 149 million were Featurephones.
Despite ‘turbulence’ in sentiments towards the end of year, the shipments did not see a proportionate
hit as there was very little window for handset makers to realign the shipments through the value chain.
However, the demonetization did result in inventory build-up in the range of 25 – 35% for various
brands in different categories of mobile handsets.
As a result of this, CMR expects contraction in the shipments for 1Q CY 2017. At the same time the
handset makers will try to catalyse the sales by offering discounts and schemes immediately after the
Union Budget 2017 is announced, which in all probabilities is going to be favouring the handset industry
to aid rejuvenation.
CMR reads the situation arisen out of demonetisation as a temporary situation and the market is poised
to bounce back due to the inherent strengths that India mobile handset market enjoys. To couple with
it, as the telecom services scape realigns only to strengthen, CMR expects compelling 4G services being
offered only to further entice the subscribers spurring the growth. Further, the Digitisation as well as
Digitalisation is only going to propel the Smartphone adoption.
The market is estimated to ship 270 million mobile phones in 2017, out of which 130 million (48%) will
be Smartphones. Though the crossover may still not happen in 2017, in terms of Smartphone shipment
proportion exceeding Featurephones, they will finish very close to each other during the year.
Among the Chinese brands – Lenovo, Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi (LOVE brands) have carved out a strong
position in the Indian market. Collectively they shipped 75% of the Smartphones from Chinese brands.
Other brands like Honor (Huawei) started off late in full swing, while OnePlus is a niche brand, limiting
their addressable market, hence the market shares.
These LOVE brands have really connected very well with the youth of the country, Be it from the
perspective of what youth expect out of their Smartphones, or how best to connect with them through
Digital as well as Traditional media and promotional activities, Chinese brands have weaved the whole
piece were very that reaped the benefits for them in a short span of less than 2 years.
However 2017 will be difficult for them from two fronts. One is about them being able to keep the
momentum of magnitude of spend going to remain visible and impact worthy as before. The second
and even important one is to strengthen in the Affordable (< ₹ 10,000) Smartphone segment. Chinese,
In 2016, Smartphones were driven by replacement / upgrade and in 2017, the thrust would be about
widening the base and bringing in more and more mobile users to a Smartphone. The entire ecosystem
starting off from Government to various players will be aggressive about having more new users on
Smartphones resulting in a lot of activity in sub ₹ 10,000 segment of Smartphones. Among the LOVE
brands, Lenovo and Xiaomi are the two having decent presence in Affordable Smartphone segment.
This situation will open up a new set of challenge to these LOVE brands in general and Oppo and Vivo in
particular where the focus has been more on above ₹ 10,000 Smartphones of ‘Value for Money’,
‘Premium’, and ‘Supremium’ segments.
2017, sees a turn of tide for these MILK brands, for first they having realised the wrongs of a couple of
years as well as market dynamics again favouring new Smartphone market development rather than the
replacement and upgrade phenomena. It is not that the opportunity will not be there for upgrade /
replacement at all. However, the greater opportunity definitely lies in the new Smartphone market
development in 2017.
We expect some shake-up with these MILK brands in 2017. First, there will be a definite No 2 for the
Indian mobile handset industry in 2017 ending the ‘floating’ challenger phenomena of 2016. One
among these MILK brands will definitely grow exponentially while at least one more brand would see
Collectively, the biggest challenge for Indian brands in general and MILK brands in particular will be to
connect with youth while building strong position among the new Smartphone users.
Pankaj Mohindroo, Chairman – FTTF and National President – Indian Cellular Association (ICA)
Peter Chang, Region Head – South Asia & Country Manager, ASUS India
If 2016 was the year that the ‘Digital India’ vision gained
major momentum, 2017 will build upon that start and drive
large-scale migration onto the digital platform to set the
foundation of a truly empowered, digitally-driven India.”
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“2017, we believe will be a year of growth for the
mobile handset industry with newer technologies
being available at affordable price points. The
technologies such as 4G are expected to lead to
deeper penetration of mobile handsets across the
country. The focus will be on enhancing
consumer experience with quality products which
cater to the needs of consumers across
demographic be it camera, speakers, fingerprint
sensors, or battery life.”
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“As Technology is bringing the future closer and
simplifying what is complicated, the innovations in
the handset space will be directly proportional to
what convenience the customers demand. The focus
in 2017 should to be on providing solutions to the
consumers using their phones as a life hack.”
Ankush Chatterjee, Vice President, Marketing & Alliances, Obi World Phones
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“OnePlus is a global technology brand with a focus on
premium Smartphones. Our focus this year is to set new
benchmarks with our latest flagship and strengthen our
local business through local production and superior
customer experience.”
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“The Overall expectation from 2017 is to
innovate and engage our users. The idea is to
build a differentiator for our brand for
consumers and bring them the best of
software and hardware amalgamation in our
phones.”
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3. Contributing Companies
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4. CMR Telecoms Research Group
CMR’s Telecoms Research Practice has been offering market intelligence and consulting support to its clientele across the
ecosystem – be it vendors, operators, VAS providers, Chipset companies and the government.
With its flagship intelligence report on the India Mobile Handsets market, CMR offers insightful research services for devices
across India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Pioneering the monthly reporting of market trends, CMR has been ably assisting our clientele with the fast changing trends,
expectations and emerging needs.
Some of the off-the-shelf offerings of CMR Telecoms Research Practice include:
Mobilytiks
India Monthly Mobile Handsets Market Review
India Quarterly Tablet PC Market Review
India Monthly DataCard Market Review
India Quarterly LTE/4G Device Market Review
Sri Lanka Quarterly Mobile Handsets Market Review
Bangladesh Quarterly Mobile Handsets Market Review
Indonesia Quarterly Mobile Handsets Market Review
Vietnam Quarterly Mobile Handsets Market Review
Besides, the team conducts consulting and ad-hoc research projects and some of the flagship engagements include:
India Mobile Data Services Consumption Study for Top 3 Telecoms infrastructure providers
India Telecom Equipments and Services Annual Study for 2013 and 2014 for Voice and Data
Consulting Services for India Mobile Handsets market entry for an IT trading brand
Team
Faisal Narinder
Krishna Anand Priya Hemang
Kawoosa Kumar Tanvi Amit Menka
Mukherjee Shipra Sinha Singh Mudgil
Principal Lead Sharma Sharma Kumari
Analyst Analyst Research Research
Analyst Analyst Analyst Analyst Analyst
Associate Associate
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5. About CMR
CMR offers industry intelligence, consulting and marketing services, including but not limited to market tracking, market sizing,
stakeholder satisfaction, analytics and opportunity assessment studies. Its bouquet of consulting services includes incubation
advisory, go-to-market services, market mapping and scenario assessment services.
The services offered by CMR encompass industry verticals of Information Technology, Telecommunications, Electronics,
Semiconductors, Life Sciences, and other emerging and overlapping technologies shaping our lives in offices as well as at
homes. CMR is servicing domestic as well as international clientele in India and few global destinations. The clientele serviced
represents SMBs, Large Enterprises, Associations and Government.
CMR’s core value proposition encompasses a rich portfolio of syndicated reports and custom research capabilities across
multiple industries, markets and geographies. CMR’s forthcoming studies include stakeholder satisfaction surveys, mega
spender assessments and market mapping studies for these domains.
A part of CyberMedia, South Asia’s largest specialty media and media services group, CyberMedia Research (CMR) has been a
front runner in market research, consulting and advisory services since 1986. CMR is an institutional member of Market
Research Society of India (MRSI).
For more details, please visit http://www.cybermediaresearch.co.in or http://www.cmrindia.com.
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