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http://www.iabse.ethz.ch/publications/seddocuments/SED5.php

Copyright  1997 by
International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering

Second Edition 2006

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electro-
nic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval
system, without permission in writing from the publisher

ISDN 3 85748 093 6

Publisher:
IABSE-AIPC-IVBH
ETH Hönggerberg
CH-8093 Zürich, Switzerland

Phone: Int. + 41-44-633 2647

Fax: Int. + 41-44-633 1241
E-mail: secretariat@iabse.org
Web: www.iabse.org
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Preface
Working Commission I of the International Association of Bridge and Structural Engineering
(IABSE) has been looking for a short, informative, and more educational type of text on structural
safety and reliability analysis to advance the use of reliability methods in structural engineering.
The text should serve the interests of practising structural engineers who are not yet familiar with
the subject. Working Commission I finally suggested that an existing textbook should be chosen
and, if necessary, translated into English.

The book you hold in your hand is the result of this undertaking. The text and figures are based on
parts of the lecture course "Safety and Reliability of Structures" (Schneider, 1996) given (in Ger-
man) to 3rd year students in the Civil Engineering Department of the Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology, Zurich (ETHZ). This course was very much influenced by a short course given in
Zurich by A. Nowak in 1987. This is gratefully acknowledged.

The book is intended both for students and practising engineers. It aims to keep things understan-
dable and to explain concepts and procedures by simple examples rather than by digging deep into
the theory. Thus, almost no proofs are given in this book. It is hoped that this book serves its pur-
pose in furthering a topic which is gaining more and more attention and finding increasing appli-
cation in practice.

A first translation from the German was made by E.G. Prater, of ETHZ. The author wishes to
thank Dr. Prater, as well as Dr. Hillary Hart, of the University of Texas at Austin, U.S.A., who
both contributed to quite a number of improvements of the original text. A number of members of
IABSE's Working Commission I and of the JCSS have carefully read the text pointing out mista-
kes and suggested shortening and amending here and there. Among those whose help is gratefully
acknowledged are T. Vrouwenvelder and R. Rackwitz.

Zurich, Spring 1997 Jörg Schneider

Second Edition
This SED 5 was well received in 1997 and sold out in 2006. IABSE decided to print an essentially
unchanged Second Edition. The author, in re-formatting the book, took the chance to correct a few
misprints and errors and to add a few sentences and references.

This Second Edition, grace to M. Petschacher, is supplemented with a free educational type of Va-
riables Processor software, i.e., VaP 1.6, and a free one-year trial Software, VaP 2.2. Using this
software may help in understanding the subjects treated.

Zurich, Summer 2006 Jörg Schneider

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Table of Contents
1. Introduction Page
1.1 Main concepts 9
1.11 Safety 9
1.12 Reliability 10
1.13 Underlying concepts 10
a) Probability and frequency 10
b) Risk 10
c) How safe is safe enough? 11
d) Optimal design 12
1.2 Hazards in structural engineering 12
1.21 Findings from 800 failure cases 12
1.22 Hazard potential, safety, residual risks 14
1.23 Snow – an example 15
1.24 Strategies against human error 16
1.3 Dealing with hazards 17
1.31 Hazard recognition 17
1.32 Hazard scenarios 18
1.33 Categories of countermeasures 20
1.4 Basic documents 21
1.41 Hierarchical ordering 21
1.42 Service criteria agreement 21
1.43 Safety plan 22
1.44 Operational basic documents 22
2. Information Processing
2.1 Elementary probability concepts 25
2.11 Events 25
2.12 Probabilities 25
a) Classical probability 25
b) Empirical probability 26
c) Subjective probability 26
2.13 Axioms and computational rules 27
2.14 Determination of probabilities 27
a) Estimating subjective probabilities 27
b) Bayes's updating 29
c) Empirical probabilities 29
2.2 Evaluation of samples 29
2.21 Basic notions 29
2.22 Histograms 30
2.23 Stochastic processes in time 30
2.24 Parameters from random samples 31
2.3 Distributions 32
2.31 Definitions 32
2.32 Important continuous distribution functions 33
a) Symmetrical distributions 33
b) Asymmetrical distributions 34
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2.33 Probability paper 35

2.34 Discrete and mixed distribution functions 35
2.4 Parameter estimation and extrapolation 36
2.41 General 36
2.42 Parameter estimation 37
2.43 Distribution fitting using probability paper 37
2.44 Extrapolations 38
2.5 Observations in pairs and two-dimensional distributions 39
2.51 Problem description 39
2.52 Correlation 40
2.53 Regression 40
2.54 Bivariate distribution function 40
2.6 Functions of random variables 41
2.61 Computational rules 41
2.62 The central limit theorem 42
2.63 Further parameters of functions of variables 43
3. Basic Variables and Modelling
3.1 Introduction 45
3.2 State, components, basic variables 46
3.21 Basis of assessment 46
3.22 Basic variables 47
3.3 Resistance of structural elements 48
3.31 Resistance model 48
3.32 Model uncertainties 49
3.33 Material properties 50
3.34 Geometrical properties 50
3.4 Action effects in structural elements 51
3.41 Actions 51
3.42 Modelling of actions 52
3.43 Combination of action effects 52
a) Turkstra's rule 53
b) The Ferry Borges-Castanheta model 54
3.44 Model uncertainties 54
3.45 Some comments on actions 55
3.5 Other fields of engineering 58
4. Reliability Analysis Methods
4.1 Preliminary remarks 59
4.2 The Monte-Carlo method 60
4.3 The problem G = R – S 62
4.31 Introduction and example 62
4.32 The classical solution 63
4.33 Basler, in the notation of Cornell 65
4.34 Representation as a joint probability density 67
4.35 The Method of Hasofer and Lind 68
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4.4 Extensions of the Hasofer/Lind method 69

4.41 Linear limit state functions with many variables 70
4.42 Non-linear limit state functions 72
4.43 Non-normally distributed variables 74
a) Tail approximation 74
b) Transformation into the standard-normal space 75
4.44 The use of computer programs 75
4.45 Remarks on correlated variables 75
4.5 Deriving partial safety factors 76
4.51 Design formats 76
4.52 Partial factors 77
4.53 Linearisation 78
4.6 Elementary approach to the reliability of systems 78
4.61 Definitions 79
4.62 Series systems 79
4.63 Parallel systems 80
4.64 Mixed systems 81
5. Assessment, Judgement, and Quality Assurance
5.1 Target reliabilities 83
5.11 Calibration to existing practice 83
5.12 Reliability differentiation 83
5.13 The need for strategies against human error 85
5.2 Assessing existing structures 85
5.21 General considerations 85
a) Responsibilities 85
b) Basis of assessment 86
c) Updating of information 86
5.22 Assessment phases 86
a) Phase I: Preliminary assessment 86
b) Phase II: Detailed investigations 88
c) Phase III: Calling a team of experts 88
5.23 Activating reserves 89
a) Preparing the basic documents 89
b) Assessing the structure 89
c) Loads and actions 90
d) Material properties 90
e) Structural system 91
f) Methods of analysis and design 91
5.24 Reliability assessment 92
5.3 A case for Quality Assurance 93
5.31 Perceptions of the concept 93
5.32 Quantification of quality 93
5.33 The battle against errors 93
5.34 Does Quality Assurance pay dividends? 94
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6. Appendix
6.1 Frequently used distribution types 97
6.2 Standard-Normal distribution 98
6.3 Probability papers 99
6.31 Procedures 99
a) Choosing the most appropriate paper 99
b) Introducing the data 99
c) Fitting the straight line 99
d) Calculation of the distribution parameters 100
6.32 Normal probability paper 101
6.33 Log-Normal probability paper 102
6.34 Gumbel probability paper 103
6.4 Computer programs 104
6.41 STRUREL 104
6.42 VaP 104
6.43 SAPOS 105
6.5 Literature 106
6.51 References 106
6.52 Further reading 109