COFFEY CAMPAIGN STATEMENT

FROM BRUCE GYORY, STRATEGIST

SEPTEMBER 11, 2010

"We hope that those who interpret polls will not make the same mistake with this Siena poll of
the Attorney General's race, as they did in misinterpreting the Bloomberg Thompson polls in
the 2009 mayoral race. In short, the polling data can be solid but the interpretation can be wildly
inaccurate.

"Here is what we believe the Siena poll shows: this is a three-person race, with Senator
Schneiderman the clear frontrunner. But unless and until the near third of electorate that is
undecided makes up its mind whether to vote and for whom, this race remains wide open.

"The Siena pollsters had a difficult task. They know turnout will be low. To adjust for that
probability they put in place the tightest likely voter screen possible. They may be right or they
may be wrong in that. But we do know this screen lead to regional skewing. This poll's sample
oversamples the Suburbs and under samples both Upstate and NYC.

"The breakdown in statewide Democratic primaries over the last decade has been remarkably
consistent in terms of regional share: NYC 55%, Upstate 30%, and the Suburbs 15%. The way
Siena defines the Suburbs (including Orange and Putman Counties) it would be 55% NYC, 28-
29% Upstate and 16-17% Suburbs. Yet this Siena sample has a very tight likely voter screen,
which places it at only 52% NYC, an incredibly high 22% for the Suburbs, and only 26% for
upstate. Therefore, instead of the empirically accurate 2-1 edge in weight between Upstate and
the Suburbs in raw votes, this methodology has virtual parity between Upstate and the Suburbs.

"Thus, when we adjust this Siena data, which we don't dispute, we believe that if New York
Democrats vote in this primary as they have with great consistency along regional lines, then
Schneiderman is at 25% (his strength in NYC and his weakness Upstate both underestimated);
Rice is at or just under 20% (her support from Suburbs overvalued) and Coffey is at 15-17%
(because his strength Upstate was undervalued).

"Therefore, a truer reading of the Siena data when adjusted for empirical voting patterns would
be Schneiderman at 25%, Rice at 20% and Coffey at 16%, with 29% undecided and a margin of
error of 4%. In short, until the undecided break, this is a wide-open three-way race.

"We hope the lessons of the 2009 Bloomberg Thompson polling, which left egg on many faces,
has not been forgotten. Siena is to be commended for trying their best to measure such a
volatile electorate. The fault will not be on Siena's pollsters if their data is misinterpreted.

"Strap on your seatbelts until the undecided break, this race is wide-open for any of the three-
way contenders."