Italian Election: What You Need To Know

• Election Details: Italians head to the polls on March 4 to choose their next government and leader.
• State Of Play: A coalition of centre-left parties currently governs in Italy, led by Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni and
the Democratic Party (PD). Additional party members include More Europe, Together, and Popular Civic List. In the
most recent polling, however, the Democratic Party has been outpaced by the Five Star Movement, and the
broader centre-left coalition is trailing the centre-right, which is comprised of Forza Italia, Lega Nord, Brothers of
Italy, and Us with Italy parties.
• Electoral Process: Italy currently has a "Rosatellum" electoral system, which includes three components for
selecting parliamentary representation.
̶ Proportional Representation: Sixty-one percent of seats (386 in the lower house, 193 in the upper house)
are chosen by this method, with seats allocated depending on percentage of national vote share
̶ First-Past-The-Post: Around 37 percent of seats (232 in the lower house, 116 in the upper house) are
elected through single-member constituencies
̶ Italians Abroad: Two percent (12 seats in the lower house, six in the upper house) of the incoming
parliament seats are chosen by Italians living abroad
Parties must meet a three percent threshold to be eligible for a share of the seats allocated by proportional
representation. If a party receives between one and three percent, but is allied with a larger party within a
coalition, that vote share is transferred to the larger coalition partner.

Sources: The Financial Times

Italy Has Relatively Short Political Terms And Frequent
Leadership Changes In Government
Number Of Leaders And Term Length By Country
10
10 Germany
9 Italy
9
8 Spain
8 UK
7
7 Greece
6 Portugal
6
5
5
4
4 4
3
3 3
2 2
2

0
No. of Leaders Since 2000 Avg. Term Length (Years)
Italy's Major Political Parties
Party Ideology/Platform Leaders Coalition

Forza Italia Pro-EU, Catholic Social Teaching, • Silvio Berlusconi Centre-Right

Social Market Economy

Democratic Party Social-Democracy, Pro-EU, Pro- • Paolo Gentiloni Centre-Left

Migration, Environmentalist • Matteo Renzi

Five Star Movement Online Direct-Democracy, • Luigi Di Maio None

Eurosceptic, Out of The Left-Right • Beppe Grillo
Spectrum

Lega Nord Fiscal Federalism, EU Critical, Anti- • Matteo Salvini Centre-Right

Immigration

Source: The Local It

Polling Has Remained Relatively Stable, With The Centre-Left
And M5S Trading Leads
Polling By Party And Coalition (Rolling Avg.)

Centre-Left M5S (Coalition Poll) +E CP LN NcI

Centre-Right PD I FI FdI M5S (Party Poll)
40

35

30

25
Percent (%)

20

15

10

0
16-Feb 8-Feb 2-Feb 25-Jan 19-Jan 11-Jan
Italy’s Economic Recovery Has Been Sluggish Compared To Its
European Counterparts
GDP High Public Debt

110 135
108 130
125
106
120
Index, 2010=100

104

Percent Of GDP
Below Pre-Crisis Level 115
102 110
100 105

98 100
95
96
90
94 85
92 80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Eurozone 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Italy
Real Labor Productivity Youth Unemployment
104 42
40
103

Percent of Total Active Population

38
102 36
Index, 2010=100

34
101
32
100 30
28
99
26
98 24

97 22
20
96 18
2015-Q3

2015-Q4

2016-Q1

2016-Q2

2016-Q3

2016-Q4

2017-Q1

2017-Q2

2017-Q3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Eurostat
What’s Next?
Election
• Voting takes place between
7am local time (1am ET),
and 11pm local time (5pm
ET).
• Five Star Movement are
projected to fall short of the
40 percent threshold, and
trail the centre-right
coalition by four points.
Results
• The results of the election will
be announced by 2pm local
time (8am ET) at the latest.
• 630 seats in the Chamber will
be attributed:
— 232 by plurality.
— 386 plus 12 abroad, by
proportional representation.
• 315 seats in the Senate will be
attributed:
— 102 by plurality
— 207 by proportional
representation
Aftermath
• Unless one of the parties
gathers at least 40 percent of
the vote, coalitions will have to
be molded in order to form a
government.
• Paolo Gentiloni has claimed PD
will not consider a coalition
with Berlusconi’s party.
• Luigi Di Maio said he may be
open to forming a ‘grand
coalition’.