CEE 6490 – WAS-DB Lab Dr. David Rosenberg p.

In-Class Water Allocation System Model Lab Exercise and Practice

Introduction

This lab exercise will provide you the opportunity to gain experience using the stochastic
database version of the Water Allocation System Model (WAS-SDB). In the first part of the lab,
you will analyze results from several of the existing model scenarios for Israel, Palestine, and
Jordan that were included with the setup program. Later, you will be asked to modify scenario
data, optimize, and analyze the results. In ILO-5, you will be asked to develop a new scenario to
(i) identify the economic impacts on Jordan from absorbing 600,000 documented Syrian
refugees since 2011 and, (ii) recommend economical ways for Jordan to develop and allocate
water to meet these increased demands. Keep in mind that a Scenario represents a specific
regional setup of countries, districts, water use sectors, etc. and all the data that supports those
model elements. Thus, scenarios can be used to build a model for a specific country (or other
political unit) or multiple countries that have inter-tied water systems (you can import data
previously-entered in another scenario for a specific country into the current model scenario).
Scenarios can also represent the existence (or non-existence) of a policy or particular piece of
infrastructure in a particular country or district. Ultimately, we will compare the WAS-SDB
model’s objective function and performance indicator—net social welfare (sometimes called net
benefits) and other intermediary results—for different scenarios.

Remember, online help is available if any topic or item requires further explanation. To access
help, select the Help menu and choose the desired topic. Alternatively, press the F1 key from
any editor or window to open the help topic for that editor. Below, instructions that are in Bold or
Italic refer to WAS program items. Questions you should answer are underlined and italicized.

Get Started

1. If your computer does not already have the WAS-SDB program installed, follow the
installation directions below (these differ from the outdated directions in Getting
Started\Installation in the Help File).

a. Download and install the current version of GAMS (version 24.2.2, December
2013) available at http://www.gams.com/download/. Select the version
appropriate to your machine.
b. Save the GAMS optimization program license file “gamslice.txt” that Dr.
Rosenberg provided in the directory/folder where you installed.
c. Run the WAS-SDB installation file WAS-SDB-Setup.exe which Dr. Rosenberg
provided by Big File Transfer.
d. Follow the instructions in the installer making sure to select a path/folder in which
to install the program that does not have spaces or other strange characters, i.e.,
“C:\David\WAS-SDB” is ok, but “C:\David Rosenberg\ST WAS” is not.

2. Open the Stochastic Database version of WAS. (From the Windows Start button, select
Programs=>WAS-SDB=>WAS-SDB. You can also find the executable WAS-SDB.exe in
CEE 6490 – WAS-DB Lab Dr. David Rosenberg p. 2

the folder where you installed the WAS program). Also, should you get an error message
about the DWG True View 2007 or something similar, click ok.

3. Select Tutorial from the Help menu and read an overview of how to use the program. In
the rest of this section and the next one, we’ll focus on scenario and results analysis and
use existing scenarios for Jordan, Israel, and Palestine.

4. From the Scenario menu, select Open. The Scenario Manager will open and show 10
modeling scenarios that were included with the installation. Each scenario has already
been optimized. The optimization results files were included in the installation and can
be viewed. In the first section of the lab, we will use the Scenario Manager and Results
menu to view the data entered for several scenarios and analyze the results.

5. Select the Model Scenario labeled Jordan2020_sy (i.e., highlight the row). This model
scenario is for 12 districts (governorates, i.e., states) in Jordan, specifies water demands
forecast for year 2020 with infrastructure existing in 2004, and represents a base case.
Click the button Set as Default. The scenario name should appear next to the label
Comparison to Default Scenario. When you select another (different) scenario (such
as in the date column for the 2nd scenario), the textbox below will populate with a table
that shows only input data when that data differs between the selected and default
scenarios.

6. Select the scenario Jordan2020_syNatCons. Based on the Summary Description

provided and output in the Comparison textbox, what does the Jordan2020_syNatCons
scenario represent? (hint: this is the same scenario shown in blue (top row) in slide 28 of
the WAS lecture slides. If you have difficulty viewing all the text in the comparison box,
copy all the text to a text editor).

Analyze Scenario Results

7. Return to the scenario Jordan2020_sy, select it, and then click the button Open to Edit.
The Scenario Manager will close and you will return to the WAS main program. The
Regional Setup, Input Data, and Results menus will now be active.

8. Use the Results menu to view or analyze results in a variety of formats. (Open and read
the Help file for further descriptions of each result format. Select the Contents tab, in
the tree open the Dialogs option, and read further under topics listed under Results.
What is the shadow value for freshwater before leakage in the districts of Balqa and
Amman?

a. Hint: there are two ways to find out. Method 1: from the Results menu, select
Tabular. Click the button labeled Next >> twice to scroll through the to the
Prices table. Method 2: from the Results menu, select Schematic. Read the
directions to use the schematic. Then in the Display Controls rectangle, check
CEE 6490 – WAS-DB Lab Dr. David Rosenberg p. 3

the box for Jordan. (Click the button Toggle Map to show an underlying map
layer for Jordan with the district (governorate) boundaries).

b. With what optimization model constraint are these shadow values associated?
c. What is the economic interpretation of these shadow values?
d. What is striking about the shadow value results for Balqa and Amman?
e. How much does it cost to convey water from Balqa to Amman? (hint: open either
the (i) Input Data menu, and select Infrastructure and then Inter-district
conveyance (hint, click any table header to sort rows by value in that column).
Or (ii) open the Results menu, select Tabular, and scroll through to the
Transport of Water page)
f. How much water can currently be conveyed?
g. How much water does WAS recommend to convey from Balqa to Amman?
h. Why isn’t more water conveyed?
i. How much would Net Benefits improve if one more m3 of water was conveyed
from Balqa to Amman?

9. What other existing conveyance links could beneficially be expanded to accommodate

larger water transfers?

10. Does the base case scenario for Jordan include desalination plants? If yes, what is the
current capacity of these plants?

Edit and Modify Scenarios, Optimize, and Analyze Results

11. How big a desalination plant should Jordan build in Aqaba to economically
accommodate the base case water demands forecast for 2020? (hint: create a new,
duplicate scenario that has a very large desalination plant in Aqaba, optimize the new
scenario, then observe how much of the plant’s capacity is used. Assume the operating
cost of a desalination plant in Aqaba is $0.37/m3).

a. In which editor did you enter the desalination plant data for Aqaba?
b. How do overall net benefits for Jordan change with an Aqaba desalination plant?

12. How does your answer to Question #11b change if water conservation programs for
urban users are already implemented in Aqaba and throughout the country? (hint: find
the scenario Jordan2020_syNatCons that already includes national water conservation
programs, duplicate it, and repeat Step 11 to create the Aqaba desalination plant).

Impacts of Syrian Refugees in Northern Jordan? (ILO-5)

What are the economic impacts on the Jordan water system from Jordan’s absorbing 600,000
documented Syrian refugees since the Syrian civil water started in 2011? How should the
Jordanian government develop and allocate water to economically meet these increased
demands?
CEE 6490 – WAS-DB Lab Dr. David Rosenberg p. 4

Background. Since the 2011 civil war started in Syria, Jordan has absorbed some 600,000
documented Syrian refugees. Further data regarding the distribution of refugees within Jordan is
scarce, but the few reports that do exist indicate refugees have settled in the northern
governorates of Irbid, Mafraq, Zarqa, Amman, and Jerash. For the purposes of this analysis, you
may assume the refugees have settled as shown in Table 1 and have similar per capita urban
water demands as Jordanians (most Syrian
refugees have settled among the general
Table 1. Estimated distribution of Syrian
population rather than in camps). There is very
Refugees by Governorate (Feb. 2014)
little data on undocumented Syrian refugees
Syrian Refugees and Jordanian officials speculate that the
Governorate number of undocumented refugees may equal
Percent Persons
Amman 20.0% 120,000 or exceed the number of documented refugees.
Zarqa 20.0% 120,000
Mafraq 28.3% 170,000 Between 2004 and 2010, Jordan also
Irbid 25.0% 150,000 undertook an extensive program of water
Jerash 6.7% 40,000 system improvements described in steps #13 –
Total 100.0% 600,000 #17 that are now part of the current water
system.

Proceeding with the Analysis. The steps from here on should help you create a base case scenario
from which you can represent the 2011 Jordanian water system, generate results, add data to
represent Syrian refugees, make recommendations, and complete ILO-5.

13. Make a new scenario for Jordan. To do this, duplicate the Jordan2020_sy scenario you
used in the Lab exercise.

14. Increase the Existing and Maximum Capacities of the Zai freshwater conveyance link
from Balqa to Amman to 90 MCM/year. This project expansion has now been completed
since the data was compiled.

15. Increase the Existing and Maximum Withdrawal Capacities for the Zara Maeen and
Yarmouk River local resource supply steps to 47.5 and 146 MCM/year, respectively.
These projects have also been completed and their data inputs can be found on the
Supplies=>Local Sources menu under Step 2 for Amman and Step 1 for Irbid.

16. Increase the Existing and Maximum Capacities for wastewater treatment to the recycled
water quality in Amman to 97.5 MCM/year to represent the recent expansion of the Al-
Samra wastewater treatment plant outside Amman. These inputs can be found on the
Infrastructure=>Wastewater Treatment menu.
CEE 6490 – WAS-DB Lab Dr. David Rosenberg p. 5

17. Add a freshwater conveyance link from Amman to Zarqa with very large Existing and
Maximum Capacities (999) and an Operating Cost of $0.05/m3. The Amman and Zarqa
urban areas are sprawling together so that they are essentially one urban water system.
These inputs can be found on the Infrastructure=>Inter-district Conveyance menu.

18. Let Steps 13-17 comprise your “base case”—a model that represents Jordan’s current
system as of 2011 before the Syrian refugee crisis.

19. Optimize the base case scenario and check that the model results make sense and match
results shown in Figure 1. How are water demands in Zarqa met? By how much do the
shadow values for water in Amman and Zarqa differ? Why?

Figure 1. Shadow value before leakage results for a base case scenario with
infrastructure built up through 2011 (blue) and for infrastructure existing in 2004 (red).

20. Now consider the Syrian refugee alternative that includes 600,000 new documented
urban users in the northern governorates. Make a duplicate scenario, then enter two
changes in the base case model input data that (i) adjust the demand curves for urban
CEE 6490 – WAS-DB Lab Dr. David Rosenberg p. 6

users in these governorates to reflect increased desire for water (base year use), and (ii)
update the population figures that the model uses to calculate per capita water use rates
from the water actually delivered to the users in a sector. Optimize this new scenario.

a. How do the net benefits and shadow values for water change in each district?
Why?

b. Examine the demand results. How should the Jordanian government allocate
water among governorates and sectors to most effectively respond to the influx of
Syrian refuges?

c. Are any shadow values sufficiently high to justify conservation programs or new
infrastructure such as those specified in the Jordan2020_syNatCons or
Jordan2020_exp scenarios?

21. Repeat Step 20 but include one new conservation program or infrastructure expansion
examined in Step 20c.

22. (Bonus +10). How do your answers in #20 change if there are 1.2 million Syrian refugees
rather than 600,000 (assume the additional 600,000 undocumented refugees are
distributed among governorates in the same way as the documented refugees).

Moving Your Work to another Computer

a) Copy the database file dbWASDataStoc.mdb from the folder where you installed WAS-
SDB and paste it on your jump drive or other location to save it. This database file
contains all input data for each model scenario.

b) On the new computer, install GAMS and WAS-SDB as per Step 1. Copy your saved
database file over top of the default database file.

c) Re-optimize each model scenario. You can optimize the scenarios individually or all in
one go using the button to the right on the main page.