Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
WILLIAM J. RIPPLE, CHRISTOPHER WOLF, THOMAS M. NEWSOME, MAURO GALETTI, MOHAMMED ALAMGIR, EILEEN CRIST,
MAHMOUD I. MAHMOUD, WILLIAM F. LAURANCE, and 15,364 scientist signatories from 184 countries
12
1.2 110
10
0.9 90
8
0.6 70
0.3 6 50
4.05
60
200
4.00
40
CO2 emissions Temperature change Population
g. (Gt CO2 per year)
h. (°C)
i. (billion individuals)
1.00
7
30 0.75
6
0.50 5 Humans
20
0.25 4
3
0.00 Ruminant livestock
10
1960 1992 2016 1960 1992 2016 1960 1992 2016
Year
Figure 1. Trends over time for environmental issues identified in the 1992 scientists’ warning to humanity. The years
before and after the 1992 scientists’ warning are shown as gray and black lines, respectively. Panel (a) shows emissions
of halogen source gases, which deplete stratospheric ozone, assuming a constant natural emission rate of 0.11 Mt CFC-
11-equivalent per year. In panel (c), marine catch has been going down since the mid-1990s, but at the same time, fishing
effort has been going up (supplemental file S1). The vertebrate abundance index in panel (f) has been adjusted for
taxonomic and geographic bias but incorporates relatively little data from developing countries, where there are the fewest
studies; between 1970 and 2012, vertebrates declined by 58 percent, with freshwater, marine, and terrestrial populations
declining by 81, 36, and 35 percent, respectively (file S1). Five-year means are shown in panel (h). In panel (i), ruminant
livestock consist of domestic cattle, sheep, goats, and buffaloes. Note that y-axes do not start at zero, and it is important to
inspect the data range when interpreting each graph. Percentage change, since 1992, for the variables in each panel are as
follows: (a) –68.1%; (b) –26.1%; (c) –6.4%; (d) +75.3%; (e) –2.8%; (f) –28.9%; (g) +62.1%; (h) +167.6%; and (i) humans:
+35.5%, ruminant livestock: +20.5%. Additional descriptions of the variables and trends, as well as sources for figure 1,
are included in file S1.
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instruments, markets, and other driv- loss, humanity must practice a Peter Stoel, Karen Josephson, Robin
ers. Examples of diverse and effective more environmentally sustainable Comforto, Terralyn Vandetta, Luke
steps humanity can take to transition alternative to business as usual. This Painter, Rodolfo Dirzo, Guy Peer, Peter
to sustainability include the follow- prescription was well articulated by Haswell, and Robert Johnson.
ing (not in order of importance or the world’s leading scientists 25 years
urgency): (a) prioritizing the enact- ago, but in most respects, we have not Supplemental material
ment of connected well-funded and heeded their warning. Soon it will be Supplementary data are available at
well-managed reserves for a significant too late to shift course away from our BIOSCI online including supplemental
proportion of the world’s terrestrial, failing trajectory, and time is running file 1 and supplemental file 2 (full list
marine, freshwater, and aerial habi- out. We must recognize, in our day- of all 15,364 signatories).
tats; (b) maintaining nature’s ecosys- to-day lives and in our governing
tem services by halting the conversion institutions, that Earth with all its life References cited
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oping and adopting adequate policy file S2 for list of signatories). As far as Keenan, RJ, Reams GA, Achard F, de Freitas JV,
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Ripple WJ, Smith P, Haberl H, Montzka SA,
education and better infrastructure; trends over the last 25 years, showed McAlpine C, Boucher DH. 2014. Ruminants,
(g) promoting dietary shifts towards realistic concern, and suggested a few climate change and climate policy. Nature
mostly plant-based foods; (h) further examples of possible remedies. Now, Climate Change 4: 2–5. doi:10.1038/
reducing fertility rates by ensuring as an Alliance of World Scientists nclimate2081
that women and men have access to (scientists.forestry.oregonstate.edu) and William J. Ripple (bill.ripple@oregonstate.edu),
education and voluntary family-plan- with the public at large, it is important Christopher Wolf, and Thomas M. Newsome
ning services, especially where such to continue this work to document chal- are affiliated with the Global Trophic Cascades
resources are still lacking; (i) increas- lenges, as well as improved situations, Program in the Department of Forest Ecosystems
ing outdoor nature education for and to develop clear, trackable, and and Society at Oregon State University, in
Corvallis. TMN is also affiliated with the Centre
children, as well as the overall engage- practical solutions while communicat- for Integrative Ecology at Deakin University, in
ment of society in the appreciation ing trends and needs to world leaders. Geelong, Australia, and the School of Life and
of nature; (j) divesting of monetary Working together while respecting the Environmental Sciences at The University of
investments and purchases to encour- diversity of people and opinions and Sydney, Australia. Mauro Galetti is affiliated
age positive environmental change; the need for social justice around the with the Instituto de Biociências, Universidade
Estadual Paulista, Departamento de Ecologia,
(k) devising and promoting new green world, we can make great progress for in São Paulo, Brazil. Mohammed Alamgir
technologies and massively adopting the sake of humanity and the planet on is affiliated with the Institute of Forestry and
renewable energy sources while phas- which we depend. Environmental Sciences at the University of
ing out subsidies to energy production Spanish, Portuguese, and French Chittagong, in Bangladesh. Eileen Crist is
through fossil fuels; (l) revising our versions of this article can be found affiliated with the Department of Science and
Technology in Society at Virginia Tech, in
economy to reduce wealth inequality in file S1. Blacksburg. Mahmoud I. Mahmoud is affiliated
and ensure that prices, taxation, and with the ICT/Geographic Information Systems
incentive systems take into account Acknowledgments Unit of the National Oil Spill Detection and
the real costs which consumption pat- Peter Frumhoff and Doug Boucher Response Agency (NOSDRA), in Abuja, Nigeria.
terns impose on our environment; and of the Union of Concerned Scientists, William F. Laurance is affiliated with the Centre
for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability
(m) estimating a scientifically defen- as well as the following individuals, Science and the College of Science and
sible, sustainable human population provided thoughtful discussions, Engineering at James Cook University, in Cairns,
size for the long term while rallying comments, or data for this paper: Stuart Queensland, Australia.
nations and leaders to support that Pimm, David Johns, David Pengelley,
vital goal. Guillaume Chapron, Steve Montzka,
To prevent widespread misery Robert Diaz, Drik Zeller, Gary
and catastrophic biodiversity Gibson, Leslie Green, Nick Houtman, doi:10.1093/biosci/bix125