Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Fact or Fiction
Myths or Truth
….virtually nothing left to fish from the
seas by the middle of the century….?
Global Loss of Seafood Species
% of species collapsed
Global fisheries data (1950-2003)
Quanzhou
Xiamen
Hong Kong
Collection of eggs from nests located Collection of eggs from nests located
on tall trees by a professional climber on top of tall bamboos using a cherry
picker
Analyses of POPs
POPs
HCB, Endrin, Dieldrin,
Aldrin, Heptachlor, Co-PCB &
Toxaphene
Mirex, PCBs, PCDD/Fs
Chlordane, DDTs
Gas Chromatograph
30
20
10
-10
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Log10 DDE (ng/g, wet weight)
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF DDE
50
% Reduction in Survival of Young
30
20
10
-10
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Log10 DDE (ng/g, wet weight)
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF DDE
50
% Reduction in Survival of Young
30
20
10
-10
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Log10 DDE (ng/g, wet weight)
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF DDE
50
% Reduction in Survival of Young
30
20
10
-10
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Log10 DDE (ng/g, wet weight)
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF DDE
50
% Reduction in Survival of Young
30
20
10
-10
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Log10 DDE (ng/g, wet weight)
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF DDE
50
% Reduction in Survival of Young
30
20
10
150
fledged (%)
100
50
0
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Log concentration (ng/g wet wt.)
Relationship between [DDE] in eggs of piscivorous birds and % fledging success for a
sustainable population showing the regression line and 95% confidence intervals.
Risks of DDE to Birds
DDE
200 Estimated threshold:
2,818 ng/g wet wt.
Survival of young
150
fledged (%)
100
50
(3.45)
0
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Log concentration (ng/g wet wt.)
Relationship between [DDE] in eggs of piscivorous birds and % fledging success for a
sustainable population showing the regression line and 95% confidence intervals.
Risks of DDE to South China Waterbirds
Fish-eating
birds
Quanzhou
Herons
99.9
Xiamen
99
DDE
Cumulative Probability%
Hong Kong
Hong Kong Xiamen
90 Quanzhou
Threshold (3.45)
70
50
30
10
0.1
2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8
Log concentration (ng/g wet wt.)
Risks of DDE to South China Waterbirds
鹭鸟 吃鱼的鸟类
Herons Fish-eating birds
(1000 ng/g) (2818 ng/g)
99.9
99
DDE
Cumulative Probability%
Hong Kong
Xiamen
90 Quanzhou
Threshold (3.45)
70
50
30
10
0.1
2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8
Log concentration (ng/g wet wt.)
Ability to
extrapolate
Marine cetacean
Source: AFCD
Hong Kong
Sewage
Outfall
Sea Water
Sediment
Contaminated
Contaminated MudMud
Pit Pit
Fish Samples
Anchovies
(Thryssa sp.)
Croceine croaker
(Pseudosciaena crocea)
Toxicity Reference Values (TRV) were derived for the dolphin based on NOAELs from
mammalian surrogates following Sample et al. (1996) as follows:
Where: TRVr = Toxicity reference value for receptor species (mg kg-1 ww day-1);
NOEAL = No observable adverse effect level for test species (mg kg -1 ww
day-1);
BWr = Body weight of the receptor species (kg ww);
BWt = Body weight of the test species (kg ww);
Do not procrastinate
- Extrapolate
Do not procrastinate
- Extrapolate
(if cannot be based on science,
should at least be transparent)
Ability to handle
uncertainties
Sources of uncertainties
Measurement Measurement
Understanding Understanding
Time/space Time/space
PEC or MEC
RQ =
PNEC
Measurement
Understanding
Biological variation
Risk characterization
Determination of PEC/PNEC or MEC/PNEC ratio
PNEC
RISK ASSESSMENT - CRITICISMS
• Too complex; too
slow Back to the
precautionary
• Too simplistic; too principle;
naive
Don’t wait for
• Too opaque science
• Too unrealistic
Ability to simplify
complex issues
Ability to simplify
complex issues
One example
Does RQ indicate unacceptable risk?
Frequency
Frequency
PNEC
Frequency
RQ
RISK ASSESSMENT
Feasible
Affordable
Scientifically-based
Transparent
RISK ASSESSMENT
Feasible
Affordable
Scientifically-based
Transparent
FAST
Ability to adopt a
multidisciplinary
approach
Framework for Risk Assessment and Management
Hazard identification
Risk characterization
Risk communication
Risk management
Framework for Risk Assessment and Management
Hazard identification
Exposure
Science
Dose-response assessment
(Toxicity assessment) assessment
Risk characterization
Risk communication
Risk management
Framework for Risk Assessment and Management
Hazard identification
Exposure
Science
Dose-response assessment
(Toxicity assessment) assessment
Risk characterization
Risk communication
Environmental economics
Risk management
Ability to separate
science from politics
in decision making
Nature Conservation Policy Statement
(Hong Kong)
NUMBER OF SPECIES