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Valuations are undemanding at 14x FY19 PER (-1.5 SD). 3m avg turnover (USDm) 5.5
Free float (%) 76.2
Results above, boosted by construction Issued shares (m) 2,458
2QFY18 net profit of MYR211m (+27% YoY, +4% QoQ) brought 1HFY18 Market capitalisation MYR12.6B
USD3.2B
earnings to MYR414m (+26% YoY), meeting 54%/52% of ours/consensus
Major shareholders:
full-year forecasts. Earnings came in above our expectations largely on
Employees Provident Fund 11.7%
the back of stronger-than-expected contribution from the construction Permodalan Nasional Bhd. 9.8%
segment. The division reported a PBT of MYR125m in 2QFY18 (+41% YoY, RAJA AZLAN SHAH ELEENA 4.4%
+21% QoQ), in-line with the revenue growth (+35% YoY, +3% QoQ) largely
from acceleration of works at the KVMRT 2. With the first tunnel drive
Price Performance
Malaysia
which MYR1b (+150% YoY, +11% QoQ) was secured in 2QFY18. 1HFY18 4.90 98
4.80 96
presales were boosted by its overseas developments, mainly Vietnam and 4.70 94
Singapore, which made up 70% of total presales. But, blended PBT 4.60 92
4.50 90
margin remained compressed as a result of i) higher proportion of sales Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
from the overseas developments and ii) start-up costs for the new local
townships. Unbilled sales stood at MYR2.4b as of end-Jan 2018. Gamuda - (LHS, MYR) Gamuda / Kuala Lumpur Composite Index - (RHS, %)
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD PP16832/01/2013 (031128)
SEE PAGE 10 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Gamuda
EPS (sen) 8.6 6.9 25.5 8.3 4.1 16.9 13.6 24.5
DPS (sen) – net - - NM 6.0 NM 6.0 6.0 -
2QFY18 2QFY17 +/- ppt 1QFY18 +/- ppt 1HFY18 1HFY17 +/-ppt
EBIT margin (%) 20.3 16.6 3.7 26.2 (5.9) 22.9 20.9 2.0
Pretax margin (%) 26.8 25.6 1.2 33.6 (6.8) 29.7 31.2 (1.5)
Tax rate (%) 16.5 18.0 (1.5) 26.4 (9.9) 28.2 28.4 (0.3)
SEGMENTAL
Revenue: 2QFY18 2QFY17 % YoY 1QFY18 % QoQ 1HFY18 1HFY17 % YoY
Engg & construction 1,061.2 784.7 35.2 1,034.6 2.6 2,095.7 1,480.8 41.5 Acceleration of KVMRT 2 and Pan
Borneo Sarawak works.
Property development 606.2 403.9 50.1 510.1 18.8 1,116.3 675.8 65.2 Higher progress billings on MYR2.38b
sales in FY17 and MYR1.9b in 1HFY18.
Water O&M & toll exp 128.8 125.4 2.6 128.9 (0.1) 257.6 255.4 0.9
Less: JV & Asso (793.3) (460.2) 72.4 (901.7) (12.0) (1,695.0) (1,053.2) 60.9
Engg & construction (567.6) (384.1) 47.8 (732.3) (22.5) (1,299.9) (883.8) 47.1
Property devt (221.6) (71.8) 208.5 (165.3) 34.0 (386.9) (160.8) 140.7
Water O&M & toll (4.2) (4.3) (1.2) (4.0) 4.6 (8.3) (8.6) (4.1)
Total 1,002.8 853.9 17.4 771.8 29.9 1,774.6 1,358.8 30.6
Pretax profit 2QFY18 2QFY17 % YoY 1QFY18 % QoQ 1HFY18 1HFY17 % YoY
Engg & construction 68.7 56.9 20.7 74.9 (8.2) 143.6 84.2 70.6 A function of both higher works
recognition and higher margins.
Property development 21.6 29.8 (27.4) 19.0 13.8 40.7 48.7 (16.5) Higher progress billings offset by
weaker blended margins.
Water O&M & toll exp 57.0 52.4 8.7 63.4 (10.1) 120.4 113.4 6.1
Share of JV & Asso 121.0 79.5 52.2 102.1 18.5 223.0 178.0 25.3
Engg & construction 42.8 14.7 190.5 25.4 68.5 68.2 38.9 75.5
Property devt 25.9 13.4 94.3 26.1 (0.5) 52.0 35.3 47.2
Water O&M & toll 52.2 51.4 1.7 50.6 3.3 102.8 103.8 (0.9)
Total 268.3 218.6 22.7 259.3 3.5 527.6 424.3 24.4
Pretax (bf. FRS 11) 2QFY18 2QFY17 % YoY 1QFY18 % QoQ 1HFY18 1HFY17 % YoY
Engg & construction 124.9 88.7 40.8 103.5 20.7 228.4 148.0 54.3
Property development 57.5 46.6 23.4 50.9 13.0 108.4 94.3 15.0
Water O&M & toll exp 108.1 103.8 4.1 115.1 (6.1) 223.2 217.2 2.8
Total 290.5 239.1 21.5 269.5 7.8 560.0 459.5 21.9
Pretax margin (before 2QFY18 2QFY17 +/-ppt 1QFY18 +/-ppt 1HFY18 1HFY17 +/-ppt
FRS 11)
Engg & construction 11.8% 11.3% 0.5 10.0% 1.8 10.9% 10.0% 0.9 Higher margins from progress at
KVMRT 2 and Pan Borneo Sarawak.
Property development 9.5% 11.5% (2.1) 10.0% (0.5) 9.7% 14.0% (4.2) Lower blended margins due to
product mix (lower margins at
overseas ventures) and higher upfront
costs of new local townships.
Overall 16.2% 18.2% (2.0) 33.6% (17.4) 16.1% 19.1% (2.9)
Sources: Company, Maybank KE
Other updates
Construction
KVMRT 3 JV structure. Within the Gamuda-MMC-GKENT JV bidding for the
KVMRT 3 turnkey role, both Gamuda and MMC are expected to take a 45% stake
each in the JV, while the remaining 10% will be held by GKENT. The award of the
turnkey role is expected by end-Mar/early-Apr 2018 with a total project value of
e.MYR45b. We have provided more details on the project (8km elevated, 32km
underground) and its financing structure in our latest update note, “Closing in on
KVMRT 3 awards”, 15 Mar 2018.
KL-SG HSR. Gamuda believes there are three strong contenders for the PDP role
for the Malaysian civil engineering works portion, where the tender closed on 14
Feb 2018: i) Gamuda-MRCB, ii) IJM-Sunway-Jalinan Rejang-Maltiumur Resources,
iii) YTL-SIPP. Within its JV with MRCB, both will have an equal share. The award
for this PDP role is expected in the next three months, i.e. by mid-2018, with
construction to start in 1H19, towards a targeted completion in 2026. This
Malaysian PDP civil engineering works portion is worth MYR35b-MYR40b.
Total 6,900
Note: MYR6.2b refers to underground works portion only and Gamuda’s 50% share
Source: Company
Property
MYR3.5b pre-sales target for FY18 overly conservative? With MYR1.9b locked-
in for 1HFY18 (1QFY18: MYR0.9b, 2QFY18: MYR1b), this have met 54% of
Gamuda’s internal full-year target, which already represents a major +47% YoY
rise over FY17’s pre-sales of MYR2.38b. There is no change to its MYR3.5b target
for FY18 for now. However, we believe presales could very possibly hit the
MYR4b mark by end-FY18. Unbilled sales stood at MYR2.4b as of end-Jan 2018.
This would provide the platform for earnings growth going into FY19.
Weaker margins from overseas and new local townships. The strong revenue
growth of 50% YoY (+19% QoQ) was marginally offset by the weaker PBT margin (-
2.1ppts YoY, -0.5ppts QoQ) in 2QFY18. Gamuda clarified that both the overseas
developments and new local townships have average PBT margins within the
range of 9%-11% currently.
Foreign shareholding (32% as of Jan-18 vs. 30% Dec-17) Gamuda: One-year forward rolling PER
(x)
60% 20.0
50% 19.0
+ 1sd: 17.4x
18.0
40% 17.0 Mean: 16.1x
30% 16.0
- 1sd: 14.9x
15.0
20% 14.0
10% 13.0
12.0
0% 11.0
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17 10.0
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Property
Unsold areas Bal. GDV Shareholding NPV of future profits Gamuda's share
(acres) (MYR'm) (%) (MYR’m) (MYR'm)
Kota Kemuning (Klang Valley) 10 90 50.0% 13 6
Valencia (Klang Valley) 0 0 98.8% 3 3
Bandar Botanic (Klang Valley) 30 1,520 100.0% 194 194
Jade Hills (Klang Valley) 170 1,200 100.0% 112 112
Horizon Hills (Iskandar Malaysia) 400 3,490 50.0% 518 259
Madge (Klang Valley) 0 50 100.0% 11 11
Robertson (Klang Valley) 0 300 100.0% 57 57
Highpark Suites (Klang Valley) 0 490 100.0% 64 64
Gamuda Gardens (Klang Valley) 820 10,000 100.0% 463 463
Kundang Estates (Klang Valley) 20 610 100.0% 68 68
Gamuda Cove (Klang Valley) 1,530 19,300 100.0% 1,125 1,125
Twentyfive.7 (Klang Valley) 230 4,000 100.0% 284 284
Bukit Bantayan (Sabah) 10 790 100.0% 67 67
Gamuda City (Hanoi) 300 8,700 100.0% 624 624
Celadon City (HCMC) 80 3,300 100.0% 331 331
Chapel Street (Melbourne) 0 300 100.0% 33 33
GEM Residences (Singapore) 0 1,000 50.0% 186 93
----------------- ----------------- -----------------
3,600 55,140 3,793
Properties’ shareholders' fund @ 31 Jul 2016 3,953
Total properties RNAV 7,746
(-) 20% discount (1,549)
-----------------
Discounted properties 6,197
Construction
Sustainable Sustainable Target PER (x) Gamuda's share
order book p.a. net margin (RM'm)
On sustainable order book 3,000.0 8.0% 18 4,320
DuPont analysis
Net profit margin (%) 29.5 18.7 20.0 20.5 19.1
Revenue/Assets (x) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Assets/Equity (x) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9
ROAE (%) 9.5 8.4 10.8 10.7 9.6
ROAA (%) 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 4.9
Research Offices
REGIONAL MALAYSIA HONG KONG / CHINA THAILAND
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research Christopher WONG Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research
Regional Head, Research & Economics (603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com (852) 2268 0652 Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
(65) 6231 5836 • Strategy christopherwong@kimeng.com.hk Maria.L@maybank-ke.co.th
sadiq@maybank-ke.com.sg • HK & China Properties • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Ind. Estates
Desmond CH’NG, ACA • Oil & Gas • Telcos
WONG Chew Hann, CA (603) 2297 8680 Jacqueline KO, CFA
Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com (852) 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk
Regional Head of Institutional Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393
• Banking & Finance • Consumer Staples & Durables
(603) 2297 8686 Sittichai.D@maybank-ke.co.th
wchewh@maybank-ib.com Ka Leong LO, CFA • Services Sector • Transport • Property • Telcos
LIAW Thong Jung
(603) 2297 8688 tjliaw@maybank-ib.com (852) 2268 0630 kllo@kimeng.com.hk Tanawat RUENBANTERNG
ONG Seng Yeow • Consumer Discretionary & Auto
• Oil & Gas Services- Regional (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
Regional Head of Retail Research Tanawat.R@maybank-ke.co.th
(65) 6231 5839 Mitchell KIM • Banks & Diversified Financials
ONG Chee Ting, CA
ongsengyeow@maybank-ke.com.sg (852) 2268 0634 mitchellkim@kimeng.com.hk
(603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com Ornmongkol TANTITANATORN
• Internet & Telcos
• Plantations - Regional (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395
TAN Sin Mui
Ricky NG, CFA ornmongkol.t@maybank-ke.co.th
Director of Research Mohshin AZIZ • Oil & Gas
(852) 2268 0689 rickyng@kimeng.com.hk
(65) 6231 5849 (603) 2297 8692 mohshin.aziz@maybank-ib.com • Regional Renewables Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Retail Research
sinmui@kimeng.com.hk • Aviation - Regional • Petrochem • HK & China Properties (66) 2658 5000 ext 5090
Sukit.u@maybank-ke.co.th
ECONOMICS YIN Shao Yang, CPA Sonija LI, CFA, FRM
(603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com (852) 2268 0641 sonijali@kimeng.com.hk Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Deputy Head
Suhaimi ILIAS • Gaming – Regional • Media • Gaming 66) 2658 5000 ext 1530
Chief Economist Ekachai.t@maybank-ke.co.th
Malaysia | Philippines | China TAN Chi Wei, CFA Stefan CHANG, CFA Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT
(603) 2297 8682 (603) 2297 8690 chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com (852) 2268 0675 stefanchang@kimeng.com.hk (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com • Power • Telcos • Technology – Regional Surachai.p@maybank-ke.co.th
• Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
CHUA Hak Bin WONG Wei Sum, CFA Bonny WENG
Regional Thematic Macroeconomist (603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com (852) 2268 0644 bonnyweng@kimeng.com.hk Suttatip PEERASUB
(65) 6231 5830 • Technology – Regional (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430
• Property
chuahb@maybank-ke.com.sg suttatip.p@maybank-ke.co.th
LEE Yen Ling Tony REN, CFA • Media • Commerce
LEE Ju Ye (603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com (852) 2268 0640 tonyren@kimeng.com.hk Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI
Singapore • Building Materials • Glove • Ports • Shipping • Healthcare & Pharmaceutical (66) 2658 5000 ext 1400
(65) 6231 5844 sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
leejuye@maybank-ke.com.sg Ivan YAP INDIA • Energy • Petrochem
(603) 2297 8612 ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com Termporn TANTIVIVAT
Jigar SHAH Head of Research
Dr Zamros DZULKAFLI • Automotive • Semiconductor • Technology (66) 2658 5000 ext 1520
(603) 2082 6818 (91) 22 6623 2632 jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
termporn.t@maybank-ke.co.th
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com Kevin WONG • Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
• Property
(603) 2082 6824 kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com
Ramesh LANKANATHAN • REITs • Consumer Discretionary Vishal MODI Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG
(603) 2297 8685 (91) 22 6623 2607 vishal@maybank-ke.co.in (66) 2658 5000 ext 1404
ramesh@maybank-ib.com LIEW Wei Han • Banking & Financials jaroonpan.w@maybank-ke.co.th
(603) 2297 8676 weihan.l@maybank-ib.com • Transportation • Small cap
FX • Consumer Staples Neerav DALAL Sorrabhol VIRAMETEEKUL
(91) 22 6623 2606 neerav@maybank-ke.co.in Head of Digital Research
Saktiandi SUPAAT Adrian WONG (66) 2658 5000 ext 1550
Head, FX Research • Software Technology • Telcos
(603) 2297 8675 adrian.wkj@maybank-ib.com sorrabhol.V@maybank-ke.co.th
(65) 6320 1379 • Constructions • Healthcare • Food, Transportation
Vishal PERIWAL
saktiandi@maybank.com.sg
(91) 22 6623 2605 vishalperiwa@maybank- Wijit ARAYAPISIT
Jade TAM ke.co.in (66) 2658 5000 ext 1450
Christopher WONG
(65) 6320 1347 (603) 2297 8687 jade.tam@maybank-ib.com • Infrastructure wijit.a@maybank-ke.co.th
wongkl@maybank.com.sg • Media • Building Materials • Strategist
INDONESIA
Leslie TANG Mohd Hafiz Hassan VIETNAM
(603) 2082 6819 mohdhafiz.ha@maybank-ib.com Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research
(65) 6320 1378
• Small & Mid Caps (62) 21 8066 8680 LE Hong Lien, ACCA
leslietang@maybank.com.sg
isnaputra.iskandar@maybank-ke.co.id Head of Institutional Research
TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8181
Fiona LIM
(603) 2082 6858 szechiah.t@maybank-ib.com lien.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(65) 6320 1374 Rahmi MARINA • Strategy • Consumer • Diversified
fionalim@maybank.com.sg (62) 21 8066 8689
Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah, MSTA, CFTe
(603) 2297 8694 rahmi.marina@maybank-ke.co.id THAI Quang Trung, CFA,
STRATEGY nikmohdihsan.ra@maybank-ib.com • Banking & Finance Deputy Head, Institutional Research
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY Aurellia SETIABUDI (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8180
Global Strategist SINGAPORE (62) 21 8066 8691 trung.thai@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
aurellia.setiabudi@maybank-ke.co.id • Real Estate • Construction • Materials
(65) 6231 5836 Neel SINHA Head of Research
sadiq@maybank-ke.com.sg • Property
(65) 6231 5838 neelsinha@maybank-ke.com.sg LE Nguyen Nhat Chuyen
• Strategy Janni ASMAN (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8082
Willie CHAN • SMID Caps – Regional (62) 21 8066 8687 chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Hong Kong / Regional janni.asman@maybank-ke.co.id • Oil & Gas
(852) 2268 0631 CHUA Su Tye • Cigarette • Healthcare • Retail
williechan@kimeng.com.hk (65) 6231 5842 chuasutye@maybank-ke.com.sg NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen,
• REITs PHILIPPINES Head of Retail Research
FIXED INCOME (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8081
Derrick HENG, CFA Minda OLONAN Head of Research tuyen.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Winson Phoon, ACA (65) 6231 5843 derrickheng@maybank-ke.com.sg (63) 2 849 8840 • Food & Beverage • Oil&Gas • Banking
(65) 6231 5831 • Property • REITs (Office) minda_olonan@maybank-atrke.com
winsonphoon@maybank-ke.com.sg • Strategy TRUONG Quang Binh,
Luis HILADO
(65) 6231 5848 luishilado@maybank-ke.com.sg Katherine TAN Deputy Head, Retail Research
Se Tho Mun Yi
• Telcos (63) 2 849 8843 (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8087
(603) 2074 7606
kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
munyi.st@maybank-ib.com
John CHEONG, CFA • Banks • Construction • Rubber Plantation • Tyres & Tubes • Oil & Gas
(65) 6231 5845 johncheong@maybank-ke.com.sg
• Small & Mid Caps • Healthcare • Transport Luis HILADO TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep
(65) 6231 5848 luishilado@maybank-ke.com.sg (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8208
NG Li Hiang • Telcos diep.trinh@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(65) 6231 5840 nglihiang@maybank-ke.com.sg • Technology • Utilities • Construction
• Banks
NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi
LAI Gene Lih (84 28) 44 555 888 x 8084
(65) 6231 5832 laigenelih@maybank-ke.com.sg mi.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Technology • Port Operation • Pharmaceutical
• Food & Beverage
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5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Gamuda
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only
applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment
ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
Malaysia Thailand
Joann Lim Tanasak Krishnasreni
joann.lim@maybank-ib.com Tanasak.K@maybank-ke.co.th
Tel: (603) 2717 5166 Tel: (66)2 658 6820
Indonesia London
Harianto Liong Mark Howe
harianto.liong@maybank-ke.co.id mhowe@maybank-ke.co.uk
Tel: (62) 21 2557 1177 Tel: (44) 207-332-0221
Vietnam Philippines
Patrick Mitchell Keith Roy
patrick.mitchell@maybank-kimeng.com.vn keith_roy@maybank-atrke.com
Tel: (84)-8-44-555-888 x8080 Tel: (63) 2 848-5288
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