Applied Reliability: Techniques For Reliability Analysis

Applied Reliability Page 1
APPLIED
RELIABILITY
Techniques for Reliability
Analysis
with
Applied Reliability Tools (ART)
(an EXCEL Add-In)
and
JMP® Software
AM216 Class 1 Notes

Santa Clara University
Copyright David C. Trindade, Ph.D.
STAT-TECH ®
Spring 2010
Required Text
This material is based on the text:
APPLIED RELIABILITY
by Dr. P. A. Tobias & Dr. D. C. Trindade
2nd Edition Published in 1995
CHAPMAN & HALL/CRC
Software Requirements
ART Excel Add-In
Available at http://www.trindade.com/am216.htm
Access to Microsoft EXCEL (2003 or 2007)
Alternative (Open Software): OpenOffice at
http://www.openoffice.org/
JMP Recommended
Free 30 day trial at www.jmp.com
Download at http://www.onthehub.com/jmp/
6 month license: $29.95
12 month license: $49.95
Applied Reliability Class 1
Descriptive Statistics
– Variation
– Sample and Population
– Random Sampling
– Types of Data
– Readout and Exact Data
– Histograms
Reliability Terminology and Concepts

– Life Distributions
– PDF
– CDF
– Reliability Function
– Hazard Rates (AFR and IFR)
– Estimation
– Bathtub Curve
– Failure Categories
– Failure Units (%/KHr and FITS)
– Parameters of Distributions
– Censored Data
Key Concept : Variation
• The objective in running experiments is to
extract useful information from data.
• Variation exists in all processes.
• Statistics is concerned with variation.
• How do we visualize variation?

Variation Examples
Coin Toss
Signature
Product Performance
Terminology
Population :
The entire set or collection of measurements

of interest
Sample :
A subset of data from the population
Population
Statistical
Inference
Probability
Sample
Probability Versus Inference
Probability
(Deduction from available information)
Example: I roll two dice.
What’s the probability that the sum of the two dice

will be “7” ?
Statistical Inference
(Induction from observations)
Example: I randomly sample a hundred lines of

code out of a program containing ten thousand
lines and find six errors.
What’s the estimated number of errors in the total

program? How sure am I about the estimate?
What possible factors can influence the results?
Random Sampling
What does “randomly sample” mean ?
Each measurement or data point in the population

has an equal chance of being selected for the
sample.
Samples not randomly drawn may be “biased” and

correct inference about the population may not be
possible.
Class Exercise
Pick a Random Number
1 2 3 4
Class Project
Random Sampling Via EXCEL or
OpenOffice Spreadsheet
1. Assume we have n = 100 objects and we want to

randomly choose 10.
2. Set up in Column A cells A1:A100 with numbers 1
through 100.
3. In Cell B1, type: =rand()
4. Use spreadsheet autofill to extend rand() function
from cells B1 to B100. Recalculate several times
using F9 key or hitting delete key in empty cell.
5. Highlight B1:B100. Do copy (Ctrl+C) and then
Edit (Alt+E), paste special, numbers only, over cells
B1:B100.
6. Highlight cells A1:B100. Do Data, Sort using
column B, ascending.
7. Use first 10 numbers in cells A1:A10 for random
selection among n objects.
Population, Sample,
Confidence
Population
• Large
• Contains unknown, fixed parameters (such

as the average time to failure)
• Determining the exact values of the

interesting parameters may not be practical
Sample
• Typically limited, randomly sampled, finite
members of the population
• Sample measurements are easier to obtain
• Sample parameters estimate the respective

population parameters and change with
different samples drawn
• The larger the sample size, the more

“confidence” in the estimates
Class Exercise
Population / Sample
Write down an example of a population in

your work :
What information would you like to know

about this population ?
How would a sample be typically taken

from this population? Is it random?
What form does the data take: count,

proportion, or measurement? Why?
Types of Data: Categorical
Observations which are categorized by the

presence or absence of certain characteristics or
qualities. Also, called qualitative data.
For example,
pass - fail,
go - no go,
in spec - out of spec,
mode of chip failure.
Ordinal categorical data has a meaningful ranking

or logical order, for example, ratings in a
questionnaire or classification by small-medium-
large.
Nominal categorical data has no meaningful order,

for example, failure mode causes (corrosion,
electromigration, oxide breakdown, etc.
Attribute Data
Quantitative Categorical Data
Counting the occurrences in specific categories

creates discrete quantitative categorical data,
since only specific numbers are possible.
For example, the number of defects on a surface or

the fraction of good dies on a wafer.
Such data is referred to as attributes data.

Types of Data: Continuous
For a continuous quantity, such as time, voltage,

pressure, humidity, temperature, and so on, any
value in an interval is possible.
In reliability work, we commonly refer to

continuous quantitative data as variables data.
Class Project
What Type of Data Is?
Select appropriate boxes:
Time to failure of a component ?
variables attributes
ordinal nominal
Number of failures in an interval of time ?
ordinal nominal
Brand of sputtering equipment ?
ordinal nominal
Serial number on capital equipment ?
ordinal nominal
Size of an order of McDonald’s French fries?
ordinal nominal
Proportion of defective die on a wafer ?
ordinal nominal
Vendor source ?
ordinal nominal
Threshold voltage shift ?
ordinal nominal
Job classifications ?
ordinal nominal
Exact Times to Failure vs.

Readout or Interval Data
Two ways to obtain failure data:
1) Record the exact times of failure.

• Continuous monitoring system on
stressed components.
• Highly useful information but cost to
obtain can be high.
Readout or Interval Data
2) Record the number of failures or the

changes in variables data between periodic
readouts.
• Readout or interval data is very
common for components on stress.
• Remove the components from stress
for testing. Return unfailed units to
stress.
• There is additional handling of units for
testing and potential disturbance of
failure mechanisms (e.g., self-recovery)
by removal of stress.
• Good idea to use controls (unstressed
units) that are tested along with
stressed units at each readout.
Reliability Stress Test Example
We will use a large number (the population) of

microprocessors for a new product.
We obtain a sample (random?) of 100

microprocessors that we stress dynamically
(operational voltages) at an elevated temperature
(HTOL).
The stress is run until all components fail. The

failure mode observed is an open circuit. The
failure mechanism is electromigration resulting
from high current flow in a line in the circuit
metallurgy.
The exact time at which each microprocessor fails

is recorded, thereby producing 100 times to failure.
Reporting the Sample Results
How do we analyze and report the results from the

HTOL experiment on processors?
Frequently, an average or mean time to failure is

used, possibly with a measure of spread such as a
range (high – low) or standard deviation.
Averages and Ranges

Don’t Tell the Whole Story
All these distributions have the same mean and range !!!
10
8
6
4
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
8
6
4
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10
8
6
4
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Numerical Measures Need a

Distribution
All these distributions have the same mean and
standard deviation !!!
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Table 1.1
Measurement Data on a
Sample of 100 Fuses
Fuse Opening Value of Current in Amps

4.64 4.95 5.25 5.21 4.90 4.67 4.97 4.92 4.87 5.11
4.98 4.93 4.72 5.07 4.80 4.98 4.66 4.43 4.78 4.53
4.73 5.37 4.81 5.19 4.77 4.79 5.08 5.07 4.65 5.39
5.21 5.11 5.15 5.28 5.20 4.73 5.32 4.79 5.10 4.94
5.06 4.69 5.14 4.83 4.78 4.72 5.21 5.02 4.89 5.19
5.04 5.04 4.78 4.96 4.94 5.24 5.22 5.00 4.60 4.88
5.03 5.05 4.94 5.02 4.43 4.91 4.84 4.75 4.88 4.79
5.46 5.12 5.12 4.85 5.05 5.26 5.01 4.64 4.86 4.73
5.01 4.94 5.02 5.16 4.88 5.10 4.80 5.10 5.20 5.11
4.77 4.58 5.18 5.03 5.10 4.67 5.21 4.73 4.88 4.80
What does this table tell you?

EXCEL Data Analysis Tools (DAT)
Data is entered as a single column.
In Data ribbon, click Data Analysis Add-In.
Select Descriptive Statistics.
Enter selections.
Results are displayed.
We need a way to visualize the results.

Visualizing Data
Histograms
A histogram is a bar chart of a frequency table or

frequency distribution of a sample.
Raw Sample (Fuse) Data

4.64, 4.98, 4.73, 5.21, ... , 5.11, 4.80
Frequency Table
Cell Number
Boundaries in Cell
4.395 to 4.495 2
... ...
5.395 to 5.495 1
Total Count 100
Histogram of Measurements
16
14
Number in Cell
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4.40 4.50 4.60 4.70 4.80 4.90 5.00 5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40
Cell Boundaries
Table 1.2
Frequency Table of Fuse Data
Cell Number
Boundaries In Cell
4.395 to 4.495 2
4.495 to 4.595 2
4.595 to 4.695 8
4.695 to 4.795 15
4.795 to 4.895 14
4.895 to 4.995 13
4.995 to 5.095 16
5.095 to 5.195 15
5.195 to 5.295 11
5.295 to 5.395 3
5.395 to 5.495 1
Total Count 100

Histogram of Measured
Values
16
14
Number of Percentage
12
10
4.45 4.55 4.65 4.75 4.85 4.95 5.05 5.15 5.25 5.35 5.45
Cell Midpoint
Histogram Using Data Analysis

Tools in EXCEL
Enter data into a column. Set up convenient
bins to span data. Select DAT. Click Histogram.
Enter information and click boxes as shown.
Results
Adjusting Bars on Histogram

Adjust bar spacing by clicking on chart bars, right-
clicking, selecting Format Data Series, Series
Options, and adjusting Gap Width.
Distribution Analysis in JMP

Enter data into a column of a data table. Then
select Analyze, Distribution. Cast Fuse Data
column into “Y, Columns” role.
JMP output includes descriptive statistics.

Histograms and Models
• This a histogram of variables data (the

current in amperes at which the fuse opens),
which are continuous measurements.
• With enough data points, the histogram

begins to look like a smooth curve
• The sample frequency distribution shown

by the histogram is estimating a theoretical
model or equation for the distribution of
the population values
Probability Density Function

Population Model
The population model estimated by the sample

frequency distribution is called the probability
density function or PDF and is denoted by f(t)
The PDF equation is model the which describes the

continuous distribution of the times to failure. The
area under the curve is normalized to 1.
The histogram estimates the population PDF curve.
20
Possible Model
18
16
14
Number in Cell
12
10
0
4.40 4.50 4.60 4.70 4.80 4.90 5.00 5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40 5.50
Cell Boundaries
JMP Fits PDF to Histogram

Click red triangle at Fuse Data.
Output includes fit and estimates.

Cumulative Data
An Alternative Way to Visualize
The cumulative frequency table accumulates the
number of observations less than or equal to a
given value.
Cumulative Frequency Table
Upper Cell Boundary Number of Observations
(UCB) Less Than or Equal To
UCB
4.495 2
4.595 4
... ...
... ...
5.495 100
The graphical rendering is called a cumulative frequency plot.
120.0%
100.0%
Cumulative Percent
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
4.40 4.50 4.60 4.70 4.80 4.90 5.00 5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40
Measured Value
Cumulative Distribution
Function
Population Model
The population model corresponding to the sample
cumulative frequency distribution is called the
cumulative distribution function or CDF and is
denoted by F(t).
The CDF is related to the PDF via the equation :

t
F (t )   f ( y )dy
Thus, F(t) represents the area under the PDF curve
f(t) to the left of t.
f(t)
Area = F(t1)
Area = F(t2)
t1 t2 Time(t)
Cumulative Frequency
Function Estimates CDF
Just as the histogram estimates the population PDF
curve, so does the sample cumulative frequency
plot estimate the population CDF curve

CDF From PDF
• In percent, CDF goes from 0 to 100%
• In proportion, CDF goes from 0 to 1
• For variables data restricted to only
positive times, a CDF model is a possible
life distribution
• PDF can be obtained from CDF and vice
versa - informationally equivalent

Cumulative Distribution
Function
A Life Distribution
Interpretation 1
F(t) is the probability a unit randomly drawn

from the population fails by time t
For example, if F(500) = 10%, then the probability

of a single (randomly drawn) unit failing by 500
hours is 10%.
Interpretation 2
F(t) is the fraction of all units in the population

which fail by time t
For example, if F(500) = 10%, then the 10% of the

units in the population fail by 500 hours.
Interpretation of the CDF
f(t)
Area = F(t)
t Time(t)
F(t) = Probability of failure by time t

= Proportion of population that fails
by time t
Class Project
CDF Interpretation
At 1500 hours the population CDF equals 0.16 or 16%.
1. How many failures do I expect at 1500 hours in a

random sample 100 units from this population, ?
2. What’s the probability that a single unit randomly

sampled from the population will fail by 1500 hours?
3. If the population consists of one million units, how

many units in the population fail by 1500 hours ?
4. What fraction of the population fails by 1500 hours ?
5. What’s the probability that no unit fails by 1500 hours if

I randomly sample 10 units from the population?
The Reliability Function

• R(t) is called the reliability or survival
function. (Note: Some authors use S(t).)
• R(t) is the probability of surviving to time t.
• R(t) is also the fraction of survivors in the
population to time t
Since the probability of either surviving or failing
must equal one (a certainty), then,
R(t) + F(t) = 1
or
F(t) = 1 - R(t)
Reliability or Survival Plot

Example
Empirical Distribution
Function (EDF)
If we have k measured values in a random sample of
n units, instead of grouping data into intervals, we can
construct an EDF by ordering the values from
smallest to largest and graphing using 1/n, 2/n, 3/n,
..., k/n for the plotting positions. EDF estimates the
population CDF using all measured values.
Class Exercise
Constructing EDF in EXCEL
or OpenOffice Spreadsheet
Fuse Data (n = 100)
1. Enter label “Fuse Data” in cell A1, “Sorted Fuse Data” in

cell B1, and “EDF” in cell C1.
2. Enter fuse data in Column A.
3. Highlight fuse data in A2:A101 and copy and paste to

B2:B101. NOTE: Copy and Paste may be done with
arrow cursor on highlighted boundary and Ctrl key.
4. With B2:B101 highlighted, select Data in menu, and

choose Sort to sort data in ascending order.
5. In C2:C3, enter values 0.01, 0.02, 0.03. Highlight these

three numbers. Place cursor arrow at right lower corner
of highlighted region to change to a cross and autofill to
C101.
6. Highlight B1:C101.
EXCEL: Select chart wizard and form a scatter plot with
line.
SO: Select Insert Object, drag rectangle in sheet, Auto
Format Chart, and form a scatter plot with line.
Modify chart as desired.
CDF in JMP
Click red triangle next to Fuse Data. Select CDF plot.
CDF plot is displayed.

The Hazard Rate Concept

of a Life Distribution
The following American experience mortality table gives

the proportion living as a function of age, starting from
age 10 in increments of 10 years:
AGE 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
LIVING 1.000 .926 .854 .781 .698 .579 .386 .145 .008 .000
The survival curve shows, at the end of each ten year

period, the percent of those still alive.
100
80
Percent
60
Alive
40
20
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10
100
Time in Years
Creating a Histogram
American experience mortality table
AGE 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
LIVING 1.000 .926 .854 .781 .698 .579 .386 .145 .008 .000
To find the proportion of individuals who die during any

ten year period, subtract applicable proportions. For
example, during the interval 50 to 60 years,
0.698 - 0.579 = 0.119
or approximately 12% of those alive at age 10 die.
Let’s make a histogram of the percent of individuals alive

at age 10 years who die in each subsequent ten year
interval.
Life Distribution
Here is a histogram of the percent of
individuals alive at age 10 years who die in
each subsequent ten year interval
25
20
Percent 15
Dying
10
0
10 to 20
20 to 30
30 to 40
40 to 50
50 to 60
60 to 70
70 to 80
80 to 90
90 to 100
Ten Year Interval
Why is the rate of dying dropping in later intervals?

The Average Hazard Rate

During an Interval
The percent dying is dropping during later intervals

because there are very few people from age 10
alive at the beginning of those intervals.
To take into account the decreasing sample size,

we use the concept of a hazard rate:
The ratio of the percent of people who die

during an interval
to the percent of people alive at the
beginning of the interval
divided by the
length of the interval
is the
average hazard (or failure) rate
during that interval
Illustration of Hazard Rate

Calculation
American experience mortality table
AGE 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
LIVING 1.00 .926 .854 .781 .698 .579 .386 .145 .008 .000
Consider the interval 50 to 60 years
Roughly 70% survive to age 50 and 12% of those

who started at age 10 die during the interval 50 to
60 years
So 12%/70% = 17% of those alive at age 50, the

beginning of the interval, die during the interval
Divide 17% by 10 years to get the average hazard

rate of 1.7% / yr during the ten year interval
running from age 50 to 60 years
The Hazard Rate Plot

Plot the average failure rate during an interval (y)
at the center of the interval (x) to obtain the
(average) hazard rate plot.
12
10
Percent 8
per Year 6
4
2
0
15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95
Interval Midpoint in Years
So as one gets older, the rate of dying does increase.

From Average to
Instantaneous Hazard Rate
The average failure rate measures the rate of failure
over a time interval for those units alive at the
beginning of the interval.
By going to smaller and smaller time intervals, we
approach the hazard rate at a point, that is, the
conditional rate of failure in the next instance of
time following t, given survival to t.
We often use the equivalent term instantaneous
failure rate (IFR).

The Hazard Function

The Instantaneous Failure Rate (IFR)
We can show the IFR or hazard rate is :
f (t ) f (t )
h(t )  
1  F (t ) R (t )
F(t), f(t) or h(t) are informationally equivalent,

that is, having any one allows us to calculate the
other two.
The Average Failure Rate
The average failure rate (AFR) between time t1 and

time t2 is given by
ln R( t1 )  ln R( t 2 )
AFR( t1 , t 2 ) 
t 2  t1
The average failure rate (AFR) over the interval 0 to t

is
 ln R( t )
AFR( t ) 
t
For F(t) < 10% approximately, we can simplify the
expression for the AFR in terms of the CDF
 ln[1  F (t )] F (t )
AFR(t )  
t t
One can also specify an AFR over a time

period, for example, between two times t1 and
time t2.
Some OEMs described their requirements in

terms of AFRs over different intervals of time.
Example Supplier AFR

Requirements
Time Interval AFR
0 - 4,000 hrs 350 FITS
4,000 - 30,000 hrs 150 FITS
30,000 - 100,000 hrs 25 FITS
400
350
300
AFR (FITS)
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
TIme (Khrs)

and CDF
To estimate the cumulative percent failures by time
t using the average failure rate, the formula is
F ( t )  1  e  t  AFR ( t )
For F(t) < 10% approximately, we can simplify the

expression for the AFR in terms of the CDF
 ln[1  F ( t )] F ( t )
AFR( t )  
t t
For small F(t) in the interval 0 to t
F ( t )  t  AFR( t )
For small F(t) between time t1 and time t2
F(t2 )  F(t1 )  (t2  t1 )  AFR(t1 , t2 )

Translating Supplier AFR

Requirements Into CDF
Class Project
Percent Fallout from AFR
1. The average hazard rate (AFR) is specified as

0.1%/Khrs over the first 4,000 hours. What is the
expected % fallout after 4,000 hours?
Approximate Calculation
Estimated fallout =
Exact Calculation (ART)
Estimated fallout =

10%/Khrs over the first 4,000 hours. What is the
Estimated fallout =
Estimated fallout =
Error in CDF Estimate from

AFR Approximation Formula
Note error using approximate calculation

increases to sizable amount as CDF
estimate becomes greater than 10%.
Error in CDF Estimate Using Approximate Formula
8%
7%
6%
Error (Overestimation)
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Exact CDF
AFR Calculations in EXCEL

Set up spreadsheet using formula as shown below.
Enter values for evaluation.

Simple Estimates for CDF

and Reliability
A simple estimate of F(t) at the end of an interval is
the total number of failures r by time t divide by the
number of starting units
ˆ r
F (t ) 
n
A simple estimate of R(t) at the end of an interval is

the total number of survivors n - r by time t divide by
the number of starting units
ˆ nr
R (t ) 
n
Class Exercise
Ten units start test. Readouts occur at 24, 48, 168,
and 500 hours. Number of failures at readouts are:
Failures 1 2 1 3
Readouts -- 24 -- 48 ---------- 168 -------------------------- 500
Estimate the CDF F(t) and the Reliability Function

R(t) at each readout
Time F(t) R(t)

24
48
168
500
Simple Estimates for PDF

and Hazard Rate
An estimate of the average f(t) during an interval is
the number of failures during an interval divided by
the number of units that started at time t = 0 divided
by the time length of the interval
r
fˆ (t )  n
t
An estimate of the average h(t) during an interval is

the number of failures during an interval divided by
the number of surviving units starting the interval
divided by the time length of the interval
r
ˆ
h (t ) 
n  r 
t
Class Exercise
(Continued)
Failures 1 2 1 3
Readouts -- 24 -- 48 ---------- 168 -------------------------- 500
Estimate the PDF f(t) and the average failure rate

AFR h(t) during each interval
Time f(t) h(t)
0 to 24
24 to 48
48 to 168
168 to 500
IFR for Integrated Circuits

“Bathtub Curve”
250
200
150
IFR
100
50
0
Early Fails Inherent Life Wearout
Time
Failure Definition
An event or inoperable state in which

any equipment, or part of the equipment,
does not, or would not, perform as intended.
“Does not perform as intended” has subjectivity.
For example, if the performance is marginal, is

it a failure?
Is a device that is just outside of specification a
failure?
What if the device operates “as intended”
following a recoverable event?
We must be careful and precise with our

definition of failure!
Failure Categories
Catastrophic : Fails suddenly, unexpectedly,

and non-reversible; i.e., breaking, short, open,
etc.
Degradation : Output degrades below the

expected level, non-reversible; i.e., fatigue,
corrosion, wear-out
Intermittent : Flip-flopping performance

below and within the expected level randomly
at an unknown time and for an unknown
reason
Failure Rate Units
Failure rates for components are often so

small that units of failures per hour are not
practical. For example, 1 failure in 100
units on test for 1,000 hours is roughly an
AFR of 0.00001 f/h.
Instead, by using suitable multiplication

factors, we can scale the failure rates.
- 105 for Percent per thousand hours

(%/Khrs)
- 109 for FITS (nano-failures per hour or

ppm per thousand hours)
The word “FITS” is short for Failure Units

or Failures In Time.
Hazard Rates in FITS

There are two common views of the term
FITS.
1. For a constant hazard rate, for the

equivalent of a billion (109) hours, e.g.,
1,000,000 units for 1,000 hours or 100,000
units for 10,000 hours, FITs is a prediction
for the number of failures.
Hazard Rates in FITS
2. For nonconstant hazard rates, we can

use FITs as a convenient measure for the
instantaneous rate of failure at time t or the
average rate of failure over an interval of
time (AFR).
For example, consider a speedometer

reading of speed at time t or the average
reading of speed over a ten minute interval.
Note: Distinguish between point or interval rate

estimates which can produce very different FITS
values for nonconstant rates.
We’ll use FITS primarily as a rate measured

in units of PPM / K hrs or nano-failures per
hour.
Table of Equivalent Failure

Rates
In Different Units
Failures
Per Hour %/K FITS
.00001 1.0 10,000
.000001 .1 1,000
.0000001 .01 100
.00000001 .001 10
.000000001 .0001 1
Failures per hour x 105 = % / K

Failures per hour x 109 = FITS
% / K x 104 = FITS
Class Project
Equivalent Failure Rates
Fill out the table below by converting two empty

cells in each row into failure rate units equivalent to
the units specified in that row :
UNITS
Failures / hr % / Khr FITS
200
0.00005
0.7
Converting Units in ART

Under Add-Ins, click ART. Select Unit Conversion.
Choose units for conversion and input value. Click

Calculate.
Parameters of Distributions
Numerical Measures
Distributions may be characterized by

descriptive numerical constants called
parameters.
Central Tendency (Location)
– Mean or Average
– Median
– Mode
Spread (Dispersion)
– Range
– Standard Deviation
– Variance
– Interquartile Range
Parameters of Distributions
Numerical Descriptive Measures
The PDF and CDF equations

• describe the population distribution
• contain one or more parameters in a form that is not
unique
These parameters typically have a convenient

interpretation as descriptive measures of the population.
For example the PDF for the normal distribution has the
equation :
1  ( x   ) 2 / 2 2
f ( x)  e
 2
The parameters  and  can be shown to be
equal to the population mean and standard
deviation, respectively.
Sample Estimates of
Parameters
Statistics
A statistic estimates a population parameter. For

example, the statistic for the sample average is:
n
X 1  X 2  X n X
i 1
i
X  
n n
In contrast to a population parameter which is fixed,

a statistic is an expression whose value:
•depends on the sample measurements
•changes with each sample drawn
•has its own sampling distribution
Sampling Distribution of Means

X k 1
Sample
Xk
Sample
n
n
Sample
Population n X4
, 2
n
n n Sample
X3
Sample Sample
X1 X2
Sampling Distribution of Means

The Central Limit Theorem
The most important theorem in statistics.
For any population, the distribution of sample
averages Xi will be approximately normal for large
enough n.
The variance of the averages  X2 is equal to the
population variance of individual readings  2X

divided by the sample size for averages, that is,
 2X
 2X  .
n
Sampling Distribution
Example
Class Exercise
Generate 500 random numbers in a spreadsheet.
Choose a fixed set of 500 points. Make a histogram of
the data. What distribution best describes the results?
Using this data, calculate 100 averages based on a
sample of size n = 5. Make a histogram of the
distribution of the averages. Compare to the original
distribution of the data.

Censored Reliability Data
If we end the test at a time or failure count before

all units have failed, then there is no information
on the times to failure of censored units
Time Censored (Type I)
Failure Censored (Type II)
We call such censoring, single censoring. In fact,

reliability data may be multicensored.
Reliability data is usually ordered data.
Because of right censoring, reliability data comes

from the early tail of the distribution.
Different from uncensored, randomly drawn data.

Comparing Censored
Reliability Data
to Randomly Sampled Data
• Threshold data from ten randomly sampled units:
5.5, 8.2, 9.5, 1.4, 3.6, 4.7, 7.3, 6.2, 2.9, 4.1 mvolts
»Mean: 5.34 mV
»Range : (9.5-1.4) = 8.1 mV
• Failure data from ten randomly sampled units:

(Total test time of 10 hrs)
1.9, 2.8, 3.3, 4.6, 5.7, 8.2 hrs

Four units still surviving (no failures) by10 hrs.
–What’s the mean time to failure of the ten units ?

–What’s the range of failure times of the ten units ?
–What’s the population model (PDF) for the data?
• To get the answers, we need to assume or specify

the distribution.
• Reliability distributions will be covered in next class.
Appendix
Class Project
What Type of Data Is?
Select appropriate boxes:
Time to failure of a component ?
ordinal nominal
Number of failures in an interval of time ?
ordinal nominal
Brand of sputtering equipment ?
ordinal nominal
Serial number on capital equipment ?
ordinal nominal
Size of an order of McDonald’s French fries?
ordinal nominal
Proportion of defective die on a wafer ?
ordinal nominal
Vendor source ?
ordinal nominal
Threshold voltage shift ?
ordinal nominal
Job classifications ?
ordinal nominal
Class Project
CDF Interpretation
At 1500 hours the population CDF equals 0.16 or 16%.
1. How many failures do I expect at 1500 hours in a

random sample 100 units from this population, ?
100x0.16 = 16
2. What’s the probability that a single unit randomly

sampled from the population will fail by 1500 hours?
0.16 or 16 %
3. If the population consists of one million units, how

many units in the population fail by 1500 hours ?
1,000,000x0.16 = 160,000
4. What fraction of the population fails by 1500 hours ?

0.16 or 16 %
5. What’s the probability that no unit fails by 1500 hours

if I randomly sample 10 units from the population?
Probability one unit survives is (1-0.16) = 0.84
Probability all ten survive is 0.8410 = 0.175 or 17.5 %
Class Project
Percent Fallout from AFR
0.1%/Khrs over the first 4,000 hours. What is the
Estimated fallout = 4x0.001 = 0.004 = 0.4%
Estimated fallout = 1-exp(-4x0.001) = 1-0.996 =
0.004 = 0.4%

10%/Khrs over the first 4,000 hours. What is the
Estimated fallout = (10/105)x4000 = 0.40 or 40%
Estimated fallout =1 - exp{-(10/105)x4000}
= 1 - exp(-0.4)
= 1 - 0.670 = 0.330 or 33.0%
Class Exercise
(Solution)
Failures 1 2 1 3
Readouts -- 24 -- 48 ---------- 168 -------------------------- 500
Estimate the CDF F(t) and the Reliability Function

R(t) at each readout
Time F(t) R(t)

24 1/10=0.1 1 - 0.1 = 0.9
48 3/10=0.3 1 - 0.3 = 0.7
168 4/10=0.4 1 - 0.4 = 0.6
500 7/10=0.7 1 - 0.7 = 0.3

Class Exercise
Step-Plot of CDF and Reliability
Estimates
1.2
0.8
F(t)
0.6
R(t)
0.4
0.2
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Time
Class Exercise
(Solution)
Failures 1 2 1 3
Readouts -- 24 -- 48 ---------- 168 -------------------------- 500
Estimate the PDF f(t) and the average failure rate

AFR h(t) during each interval
Time f(t) h(t)
0 to 24 (1/10)/24=0.0042 (1/10)/24=0.0042
24 to 48 (2/10)/24=0.0084 (2/9)/24=0.0093
48 to 168 (1/10)/120=0.00083 (1/7)/120=0.0012
168 to 500 (3/10)/332=0.00090 (3/6)/332=0.0015

Class Exercise
Step-Plot of PDF and Hazard
Rate Estimates
0.01
0.008
0.006
f(t)
h(t)
0.004
0.002
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Time
Equivalent Failure Rates
Fill out the table below by converting two empty

cells in each row into failure rate units equivalent to
the units specified in that row :
UNITS
Failures / hr % / Khr FITS
0.0000002 0.02 200
0.00005 5.0 50,000
0.000007 0.7 7,000

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Applied Reliability Page 1

AM216 Class 1 Notes

Copyright David C. Trindade, Ph.D.

Applied Reliability Class 1

Reliability Terminology and Concepts

Key Concept : Variation

• The objective in running experiments is to

extract useful information from data.

• Variation exists in all processes.

• Statistics is concerned with variation.

• How do we visualize variation?

The entire set or collection of measurements

A subset of data from the population

Probability Versus Inference

Example: I roll two dice.

What’s the probability that the sum of the two dice

Example: I randomly sample a hundred lines of

What’s the estimated number of errors in the total

What does “randomly sample” mean ?

Each measurement or data point in the population

Samples not randomly drawn may be “biased” and

Pick a Random Number

1. Assume we have n = 100 objects and we want to

• Contains unknown, fixed parameters (such

• Determining the exact values of the

• Sample measurements are easier to obtain

• Sample parameters estimate the respective

• The larger the sample size, the more

Write down an example of a population in

What information would you like to know

How would a sample be typically taken

What form does the data take: count,

Types of Data: Categorical

Observations which are categorized by the

Ordinal categorical data has a meaningful ranking

Nominal categorical data has no meaningful order,

Counting the occurrences in specific categories

For example, the number of defects on a surface or

Such data is referred to as attributes data.

Types of Data: Continuous

For a continuous quantity, such as time, voltage,

In reliability work, we commonly refer to

Exact Times to Failure vs.

Two ways to obtain failure data:

1) Record the exact times of failure.

Readout or Interval Data

2) Record the number of failures or the

Reliability Stress Test Example

We will use a large number (the population) of

We obtain a sample (random?) of 100

The stress is run until all components fail. The

The exact time at which each microprocessor fails

Reporting the Sample Results

How do we analyze and report the results from the

Frequently, an average or mean time to failure is

Averages and Ranges

Numerical Measures Need a

Fuse Opening Value of Current in Amps

What does this table tell you?

Results are displayed.

We need a way to visualize the results.

A histogram is a bar chart of a frequency table or

Raw Sample (Fuse) Data