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Subject:ExxonMobil testimony before the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee
Date:April 3, 2018 at 4:39 PM
To:Max Schulz max.schulz@exxonmobil.com, Suzanne M. McCarron Suzanne.M.McCarron@ExxonMobil.com, Jeffrey J. Woodbury
jeff.j.woodbury@exxonmobil.com, William (Bill) M. Colton William.M.Colton@ExxonMobil.com, Darren W. Woods
Darren.W.Woods@ExxonMobil.com
Cc: Brian Hughes (Senate ENR Ctee-R) Brian_Hughes@energy.senate.gov, Mary-Louise Wagner (Senate ENR-D)
MaryLouise_Wagner@energy.senate.gov, Suzanne Cunningham (Senate ENR-R) Suzanne_Cunningham@energy.senate.gov,
Scott McKee (Senate ENR-D) Scott_McKee@energy.senate.gov, Melissa Enriquez (Senate ENR-R)
Melissa_Enriquez@energy.senate.gov, David Poyer (Senate ENR-D) david_poyer@energy.senate.gov, Katie Thomas
katie_thomas@sanders.senate.gov, Michaeleen Crowell (Sen. Sanders) Michaeleen_Crowell@sanders.senate.gov,
U. S. Senator Bernie Sanders senator@sanders.senate.gov
In one of my earlier articles on Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), I had stated that "new" investors who
were interested in energy stocks should stay away from XOM. Exxon's declining crude oil
production during the fourth quarter of 2017 and its reduced cash flows from operations-asset
sales were two major reasons why I advised investors to prefer other energy stocks (such as
sales were two major reasons why I advised investors to prefer other energy stocks (such as
Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) and BP (NYSE:BP)) over Exxon Mobil. To this,
some of the readers criticized me (and I was expecting this to happen since Exxon Mobil is one of
the prominent energy stocks) for being too bearish and ignoring Exxon's recent discoveries in
Guyana and Permian/Delaware region. Readers and investors must note that a company's overall
performance should be measured by combining its financial and operational results, not only by
the number of new oil discoveries or by its ability to deliver a strong dividend yield to its
customers. Besides, it is also important to compare the company's fundamentals with
macroeconomic factors like energy prices. In this article, I am going to correlate XOM with one
macroeconomic factor, in line with my earlier view that it is better for new energy investors to
remain away from Exxon Mobil.
If oil prices go down in 2018, then XOM will definitely come under more pressure
XOM was trading at $74.61 at the time of writing this article, witnessing an increase of 2.47%
over its previous trading day. Although this seems to be good, investors must note that Exxon
Mobil's oil production witnessed a 3% year-on-year decline during the fourth quarter of 2017.
This was at a time when oil prices witnessed a significant increase. Even the company's fourth-
quarter operating cash flows declined when compared to its third quarter. In fact, Exxon Mobil's
stock had fallen by more than 5% on February 2, 2018, when its fourth-quarter earnings were
released. From this, it was clear that investors and analysts were expecting a far better
operational and financial performance from the energy giant. Investors must note that Exxon
Mobil's future performance is largely dependent on oil prices. The WTI and Brent were trading at
$65.24 and $69.8 respectively at the time of writing this article. Although oil prices are moving
up, things can (and will) change pretty fast! As per the latest oil report from US-based Energy
Information Administration(EIA), US oil production increased by 26,000 barrels per day for the
week ending March 23 and stood at 10.43 million barrels per day, a record high.
There is no doubt that Exxon Mobil is increasing its capital expenditures and investing heavily to
improve its operational performance and increase its cash flows, but it is also true that it has
fallen behind other energy stalwarts like Royal Dutch Shell and BP that have already improved
their cash flows by reducing their operating costs and capital investments. Besides this, Exxon
has an estimated Price to Earnings ratio of 23, which correlates the company's future growth
with oil price volatility. So, if oil prices start falling by second half of 2018, then XOM will also
start heading down. Last week, the US district court has ruled that Exxon Mobil cannot stop
state officials from investigating whether the energy giant misled its investors about its climate
change program. Although such developments are going to have little impact on the stock price,
it is pretty clear from the above analysis that XOM will come under pressure during the second
half of 2018. Investors must take note of this.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160502-exxon-mobil-another-reason-stay-away