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Business Description Axon Enterprise (formerly TASER International) is the market leader in the development,
manufacture, and sale of conducted electric weapons (‘CEW’s) designed for use by law enforcement, corrections, military
forces, private security personnel, and private individuals. Axon is also the market leader in body camera hardware and
data storage and management for law enforcement through a multidevice-connected platform. Axon Enterprise offers
and continues to develop a suite of seamlessly integrative products designed to automate record- keeping and other time-
consuming and inefficient workflows. Axon’s current business may be thought of as an established legacy business (tasers),
housing a rapidly scaling SaaS company.
Investment Thesis Axon Enterprises’ attractive value proposition lay in the unique and seamlessly integrative suite of
data collection and management products offered to law enforcement, recurring and predictable revenue streams,
competent and proven management, and competitive advantages including high switching costs, networking effects, and
big data. Axon’s valuation has been unduly suppressed by reaction to margin depression (resulting from significant
reinvestment at an attractive ROIC of 12%) as well as a lack of faith on Axon’s Q117 pivot. Key imminent catalysts, including
continued success and margin depression in new areas of business expansion and within international operations, will
unlock value which will be reflected in an appropriate tech-multiple rerating.
Variant Opinion
Axon has continued to demonstrate promising signs of success in their burgeoning body camera and data storage and
management products. Unlike TASER production, this business promises deeper competitive advantages.
Fundamental transformation of police workflow: Axon’s technology has the potential to dramatically alter modern
police-work and policing; the Axon network is the largest repository of law enforcement footage in existence, representing
a potentially incredible powerful AI solution tailored to the unique requirements of public safety. Two recent (late 2016,
early 2017) AI acquisitions enable newly created Axon AI to use computer vision and natural language processing along
with machine learning techniques to automate redaction, transcription, video look through, and reporting. Such features
are to be released in FY2018.
Axon’s Future Lay in Data Collection and Analysis: Axon is poised to be the dominant player in public safety data collection
and analytics.
Significance of competitive advantages: Axon maintains significant competitive advantages as a monopolistic player in a
rapidly developing niche market. Among these are high switching costs, superior and unique products, patent protections
with a successful litigation history, and network effects.
Associated Risks
Uptake of other neutralizing products impacting TASER business: Axon competes with less-lethal alternatives such as
pepper spray, batons, and impact weapons. There have been several suits in past years alleging homicide by CEW.
Uptake of other RMS and automotive solutions for police workflows: Notable offerings from Nuance Communications
(NASQ: NUAN) for speech-assisted police documentation and reporting.
Limited officer budgeting: Demand for Axon products is a function of office funds provided by the government.
However, offices receive some discretionary income from asset forfeiture, though current levels are office funding appear
sufficient for continued growth.
Trade secrets exposed in court: Evidence collection is often a contested point in cases. Axon’s trade secrets may be
exposed if a court seeks and publicizes such information.
Limited uptake after trial periods: In April of 2017 Axon offered free year trials of a suite of products, if offices don’t
pursue renewed contracts then Axon will be adversely impacted.
Regulation: Governments may impose regulations restricting private companies from storing government data.
Patent Infringement: Law enforcement-specialized camera producer Digital Ally is currently pursuing infringement claims
against Axon Enterprises over Patent ‘452, which covers automatically activating cameras. This is an integral component
to Axon’s integrative suite of products and an injunction would have significant adverse effect on Axon’s financial health.
Material Weaknesses in Reporting: In Q316 Axon altered revenue recognition; revenue is recognized upon initiation of a
multi-year contract, rather than as income is discretely received. This form of accounting may not reflect the true financial
state of the company.
SEC Investigation: Axon is currently under investigation from the SEC after failing to respond to several requests for
additional information.
($) in millions FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022
EBIT 32,505 35,335 31,851 7,217 15,500 54,196 72,159 116,696 161,103
Aftertax EBIT 20,038 19,918 17,491 6,046 10,850 37,937 50,511 81,687 112,772
D/A 4,317 3,291 3,658 6,600 7,750 9,033 10,690 12,616 14,986
Capex 2,505 6,003 4,957 12,096 11,625 13,549 16,035 18,924 22,479
Chg WC -8,039 -1,673 15,537 4,336 5,014 6,667 7,571 9,191
FCF 25,245 17,865 -14,987 2,639 28,407 38,499 67,808 96,088
Balance Sheet
Historical
($) In Thousands 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q317
Cash/CE 36,127 42,271 48,367 59,526 40,651 43,471
ST Invest 1,681 9,101 32,774 50,254 48,415 18,372
A/R 18,101 22,488 30,735 27,701 39,466 51,204
Inventory 10,993 11,109 18,323 15,763 34,841 52,692
Prepaid Expenses 2,755 5,397 4,443 8,165 13,858 23,002
Other current (D/IT) 9,396 7,101
Total Current 79,053 97,467 134,642 161,409 177,231 188,741
PP&E 21,952 19,043 17,523 21,848 24,004 31,263
D/IT 11,606 13,679 16,063 13,719 19,515 22,845
Intangibles 3,317 3,317 3,115 7,588 15,218 20,758
Goodwill 2,235 2,206 9,596 10,442 14,923
LT Invests 12,023 9,296 8,525 234
LT A/R 1,227 17,602 32,543
Other 308 618 2,523 5,969 13,917 16,534
Total Assets 116,236 148,382 185,368 229,881 278,163 327,607
Founded in 1998 by Rick Smith, the current CEO, Taser International rose to a dominant position in the international taser
market by the early 2000’s. Axon operates in two segments, TASER and Software and Services, selling products on
recurring payment plans to law enforcement offices.
The Software and Services segment includes the GM 64% 65% 67% 70% 69% 69%
development and sale of data storage and OM 28% 31% 35% 38% 35% 33%
management software as well as hardware, including
on-body and in-car cameras. The Software and S&S Historical
Services segment was created to segment In millions 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Revenue 6 10 19 36 66 98
evidence.com revenue in 2009. In 2015, then-TASER
Gross
International created the new Axon division for a host -2 2 4 15 18 36
Profit
of data collection and management products. Axon, SG&A 4 6 11 22 44 58
recognizing the significance of this suite of product R&D 4 6 11 19 25 45
offerings in their future success, rebranded after this EBIT -10 -10 -19 -26 -52 -67
division, in 2017. This segment is still pre-profitable,
GM -33% 20% 21% 42% 27% 37%
though has made tremendous strides through scale.
OM -167% -100% -100% -72% -79% -68%
R&D expenses are particularly notable.
In Q117 TASER International renamed to Axon Enterprise, reflecting a refocus of the company. Axon now aims to provide
an integrative suite of products to supplement all aspects of officer work-life; smart weapons offer less-lethal use of force,
response automatic-activation cameras collect video evidence, mobile applications enable evidence collection, and digital
management solutions allow officers to manage, review, share, and process digital evidence.
Axon formed Axon AI through acquisitions [Dextro (acq. 8 Feb 2017, 7.5m) and Fossil Group (acq. 30 Dec 2016, 6.8m)].
Axon AI uses computer vision and natural language processing along with machine learning techniques to transform key
customer workflows. There is massive potential in this arena; such programs could automate all collection and analysis of
information as the future of hands-free reporting and real-time intel in the field. Records may be seamlessly recorded and
transcribed rather than arduously written by police officers, optimizing workflow for the office. Such offers are reportedly
expected by FY2017 end. Axon AI currently consists of 20 AI researchers from acquired companies. In early August 2017,
former Uber Senior Tech Lead Mojtaba Solgi joined the Axon AI team as the Senior Research Scientist and Team Lead.
It is insightful to describe this suite of products through process:
All Axon cameras within 30ft are automatically activated upon certain triggers (disabling TASER safety, activating sirens,
opening patrol car door), notifying and live-streaming the encounter to the police station and other nearby officers
(enabling greater strategic optimization in difficult encounters). Axon’s Capture and Detect, mobile phone applications,
allow officers to collect evidence from the field and automatically analyze for tampering. Upon return to the station, the
Axon Dock doubles as a charging station and sync-station for all collected data. Data is automatically uploaded to
evidence.com, whereupon officers may access a host of analytical tools. When officers search for an incident,
evidence.com will summon all cameras present at the event and allow simultaneous viewing. Beginning Q118, algorithms
can detect objects and scenes in videos and automatically flag as important, blur faces so that footage can quickly be
disclosed to public and prosecutors, and transcribe audio. Footage can be shared across jurisdictions and agencies, as well
as with prosecutors. Alterations are recorded in the chain of custody documentation.
US officer count consistently grew post-1992, before peaking in 2009 then modestly declining. US officer growth has
outpaced population growth over the last twenty years, growing at a 1.7% CAGR 1. This serves as the base growth
assumption for the US TAM in the model.
US Officers (1992-2012)
Law enforcement personnel are heavily concentrated: 70% of officers are stationed within just 7% of all agencies.
Furthermore, 21% of all sworn officers are stationed within the largest 0.4% of departments.
As Axon’s primary business entails competition for contracts from public entities, primarily law enforcement offices,
available and incremental market opportunity fluctuates with funding of such public entities. However, the taser and body
camera markets are bolstered by public opinion and government initiatives.
Police body cameras became a high- profile issue following the death of Michael Brown and the Ferguson, MI protests in
2014; In December of the White House announced a 3 year $263m program for local law enforcement to adopt body
cameras2. Further, 2015 and 2016 saw 23 and 20 million in DOJ matching grants for body-worn camera programs,
respectively3,4. The effort enjoys support across both aisle; 88% of Americans support body cameras5, with 55% supporting
tax increases to fund rollouts, and 2/3rds of all law enforcement officers favored use.
Tasers are often viewed as an attractive non-lethal alternative in policing, particularly as the world trends toward greater
firearm regulation. Owing to patent protections and aggressive litigative efforts to ensure the enforcement of those
patents, Axon faces no significant domestic competitors in the taser market. Per Axon, 2/3rds of domestic patrol officers
carry a TASER CEW.
Software and Sensors Axon supplies ~6,000 US agencies with Axon body cameras. Axon faces competition from Unisys in
storage and management software tailored to law enforcement professionals as well as competition from Digital Ally
(NASQ: DGLY) and Vievu in specialized law enforcement camera equipment. Motorola (NYSE: MIS) has announced an
entrance into the space with both cloud storage and on-body camera products.
Some bears have claimed Axon’s reported penetration and domination is overstated. In examining news reports following
the 77 largest departments in the US, composing 21% of all US officers, we find 59 contracting with a body camera supplier.
Axon contracts with 43 of the 59 cities contracting with body camera providers. As Axon’s representation does not notably
correlate with larger data points in the set, we assume this distribution to be relatively representative of the population.
Consequently, it is clear Axon is the major player in the body camera market.
Despite dominant market position, Axon still enjoys a massive growth runway as many subscribing departments are either
employing pilot programs or have begun the first stages of an incremental roll-out.
Axon estimates 2,000,000 law enforcement officers eligible for their products worldwide. Axon enjoys presence primarily
in Canada, UK, and Australia and aims to soon expand into France and Ireland.
Uniqueness and High Switching Costs The products and software don’t only make workflow exponentially more efficient
but also fundamentally alter the work required of back-office workers. Uptake of the software entails a change in actual
day-to-day work and transition requires massive costs, retraining of employees on new software platforms, and the fear
of potentially losing evidence. In fact, associated switching costs are so severe that competitors Watchguard and Vievu
derided Axon’s Q117 promotion to provide all US officers with a year of free on-body cameras and evidence.com
subscriptions as “unethical” and akin to “getting a tattoo on your face”10 as departments would face losing evidence if
they did not renew their contracts.
TASER
($) In
Thousands
Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317
Sales 38,341 37,825 39,520 46,689 45,834 45,536 52,938 58,337 57,671 53,016 59,400
COGS 11,081 11,278 12,445 14,016 14,077 14,489 14,973 17,932 18,026 16,078 19,008
Gross 27,260 26,547 27,075 32,673 31,757 31,047 37,965 40,405 39,645 36,938 40,392
SG&A 10,705 10,823 11,941 14,171 15,272 15,049 16,439 17,222 17,216 17,492 20,575
R&D 1,190 1,077 1,151 1,052 1,120 1,245 1,408 2,114 2,212 1,863 1,856
EBIT 15,365 14,647 13,983 17,450 15,365 14,753 20,118 21,069 20,217 17,583 17,961
GM 71% 70% 69% 70% 69% 68% 72% 69% 69% 70% 68%
OM 40% 39% 35% 37% 34% 32% 38% 36% 35% 33% 30%
GM1 30% 37% 25% 25% 30% 33% 15% 0% 8% -2% -5%
GM2 65% 66% 67% 67% 76% 71% 81% 83% 70% 70% 64%
Total GM 41% 47% 37% 46% 53% 47% 45% 39% 42% 33% 31%
OM -72% -59% -67% -96% -106% -67% -48% -49% -69% -63% -60%
Total
GM 67% 66% 62% 66% 66% 63% 65% 61% 61% 57% 55%
OM 24% 20% 13% 15% 9% 11% 15% 11% 7% 1% -1%
Key takeaways from data: 1) Gross margins are suppressed by Axon products 2) Operating margins are suppressed by
Taser and Axon SG&A as well as Axon R&D.
We proceed by exploring the underlying causes and assessing the
Headcount in SG&A
likelihood of reversal.
($) In Millions 2014 2015 2016
Axon dismal body camera gross margin (GM1) is owed to aggressive TASER 12 18 26
discounting efforts for new and existing products as well as in Axon Sales Reps 16 27 44
International sales 5 13 11
international beachhead accounts. More concretely, FY17 S&S product
Sales support 8 20 31
margins have been significantly impacted by Axon’s Q117 free 1-year Telesales 17 27 42
body-cameras and evidence.com subscriptions promotion, the Other 20 33 59
introduction of Axon Fleet, an in-car camera system, and data Total 78 138 213
migration costs as Axon migrated from Amazon Cloud to Microsoft SG&A/head 0.51 0.51
Azure (the largest data transfer in history). Rev/head 1.4 1.3
Axon Body cameras unit revenue has declined from 339/unit in 2014 to 195/unit in 2017. These gross margins may be
understandably sacrificed in the short-term; Axon aims to create contracted recurring revenue streams by minimizing
department acquisition costs. Further, this effort is time-sensitive as Axon briefly enjoys a competitive landscape devoid
of massive hegemons and cultivation of their unique data management solutions requires massive amounts of data. Our
LT model assumes an average revenue/unit through the decline.
These efforts aid in explaining the growth of SG&A expenses –Axon has dramatically expanded SG&A headcount over the
last three years. SG&A expense per head has remained stagnate over the period while executive compensation has
increased. Revenue per SG&A headcount has slightly declined, which is expected with scale. These metrics indicate
acceptable marginal headcount addition economics.
Axon R&D expense has experienced monumental growth as well. These expenses result from efforts to produce unique
and comprehensive suite of products. Management is keenly aware that on-body cameras and data storage is not in itself
a sufficiently differentiable product in a rapidly congealing market. As such, Evidence.com and other ancillary products
have been a significant recipient of these funds.
Additionally, executive bonuses effectively incentivize conferral of costs into the S&S segment. Executive bonuses are tied
to benchmarks in revenue (25%), Axon bookings (25%), international bookings (20%), TASER operating income (15%),
active booked seats (5%), achievement of % of US agencies on paid plans (5%), and achieving deployment targets within
high value agencies (5%). Management has an incentive toward heavy discounting to achieve goals in revenue and
bookings as well as the displacement of costs into the S&S segment to achieve sufficient TASER operating income.
Rather than rising costs or falling demand coupled with high fixed costs, Axon margin compression is clearly the result of
highly aggressive expansion efforts, coupled with successful sales. These growing expenses, coupled with a scaling
business that composes an increasing share of the total business, inevitably causes overall margin compression. The body
camera and data management segment has grown significantly, but has yet to reach attractive scale.
Tax restructuring Management foresees a Reduction of effective tax rate by 10%. The new tax structure would no longer
require Axon to keep two sets of inventory for international operations.
ARPU upsell of new service products Axon continues to develop new service products to upsell pre-existing customers –
such revenue comes at near development cost.
New GAAP regulations 606 regulations will allow Axon to recognize discounts upfront, rather than throughout the lifetime
of the contract. This will accelerate margin decompression as discounts are phased out. We may expect an initial decline
in profitability followed by expanded margins.
New incentive structure “Our key metrics including all the compensation metrics were focused primarily on growth and
that’s exactly what the organization has delivered. As part of our pivotal profitability in body camera segment, we are
adding profitability metrics to our compensation and long-term performance equity plans for 2018 and beyond.” – CEO
Rick Smith, Q317 earnings call transcript
20,000,000 40%
18,000,000 35%
16,000,000
30%
14,000,000
12,000,000 25%
10,000,000 20%
8,000,000 15%
6,000,000
10%
4,000,000
2,000,000 5%
0 0%
01/14/2011 11/15/2011 09/14/2012 07/15/2013 05/15/2014 03/13/2015 01/15/2016 11/15/2016 09/15/2017
Fall 2014
Through 2014 on-body cameras for officers became a significant political issue. However, uptake on body cameras was
slower than expected and the realized order volume of body camera orders fell far short. While there were many highly
publicized announcements of pilot programs (notably the London Met Police) and small interest “testing” orders, these
relationships did not translate into immediate financial gains. There are significant bureaucratic hurdles precipitating order
placement as many departments must receive federal grant funding to finance their orders. Short interest declined
through 2016 as Axon more than halved in valuation.
Spring 2017
This gain in short interest differs significantly from the 2014 SI gain as it did not coincide with a meteoritic rise in AAXN
valuation (see below figure): the sole catalyst appears to be the redirection of the company and/or concerns over declining
margins. The SEC investigation caused a minimal rise in short interest. Additionally, the re-announcement coincided with
an offer to equip every officer with an on-body camera and evidence.com seat. I believe it is fair to conclude it reflects a
lack of faith in Axon achieving success in a relatively new marketplace. I believe the free offer is a highly strategic move
provided the high switching costs of the offered software; furthermore, there has been an appreciable amount of uptake
thus far. If one concludes that Axon will enjoy success in their new endeavors, then it appears the equity valuation has
been depressed by significant short-selling, presenting an opportunity.
Short Interest and Share Price (2011 - 2017)
20,000,000 40
18,000,000 35
16,000,000
30
14,000,000
12,000,000 25
10,000,000 20
8,000,000 15
6,000,000
10
4,000,000
2,000,000 5
0 0
01/14/2011 11/15/2011 09/14/2012 07/15/2013 05/15/2014 03/13/2015 01/15/2016 11/15/2016 09/15/2017
Axon’s aggressive contract procurement tactics have led to inflamed tensions with competitors. Digitally Ally has entered
a supply agreement with VieVu, Axon’s most significant competitor. VieVu is signaling acceptance of the patent through
this licensing agreement.
Material Weaknesses in Reporting In Q316, Axon began to recognize revenue upon initiation of a contract, rather than
throughout the lifetime of that contract. This overstates revenue and can be observed as the spread between revenue
and CFFO widens. In the event of a cancelled contract, though rare, such practice exposes the company to redacting
already recognized revenue.
SEC Investigation The SEC began sending Axon requests for information concerning the 2016 10-k and q117 10-q. After
three letters went unanswered the SEC was triggered into an automatic investigation. The SEC Aug 10 letter asked
questions related to company’s revenue recognition practice as well as about calculating backlog through 2016.
As of 7 November 2017, the SEC has concluded their investigation. Axon stated that they are not aware of any outstanding
or unresolved comments from the SEC.
Appendix V. Catalysts
Digital Ally Sale Microcap competitor and key patent holder Digital Ally is suffering from a rapidly deteriorating financial
situation. As of Q317 the company has 3.72m in debt with .32m in cash on -72% 2017E net margin.
On 7 November 2017 Digital Ally (NASD: DGLY) announced exploration of “strategic alternatives”, including whole or
partial sale of the company as well as monetization of their patent portfolio. Digital Ally’s patent on automatic activation
of recording devices is an integral component of Axon’s continued success. Desirable outcomes include: Axon acquiring
the 15m company, acquiring relevant portions of the patent portfolio, or accepting licensing terms from Digital Ally or the
acquiring company of the business or relevant patent. It is relevant to note that Axon currently holds >62m in liquid cash-
like assets and, recognizing the importance of this deal would do whatever necessary to achieve a beneficial outcome.
However, if Digital Ally or Digital Ally’s patents are acquired by a company unwilling to engage in licensing with Axon then
there will be significant material effects on Axon’s future success. This ongoing transaction, as well as the ongoing litigation
concerning the patents, must be watched carefully.
Margin De-Compression Axon will re-expand margins through the continued adoption of their products and tempered
operating cost expansion relative to sale growth. The operating costs associated with developing new products and scaling
the business are declining, relative to sales growth. Margin de-compression will quell a primary source of bear sentiment
on Axon; the severely tempered expectations of success in their pivot toward data storage and management.
Continued Growth and Rise in International Markets Axon continues to expand in Tier 1 markets (UK, Australia, Canada).
Axon acquired Australian distributor Breon for 4.7m in Q217 to further expansion efforts in the 200,000-officer market.
Hadi Partovi Director 277,442 0.53% 5,973,326 Insider Flows (2015 – 2017)
Matthew -100,000
Director 10,713 0.02% 230,651
Mcbrady
Julie Anne
Director 6,302 0.01% 135,682
Cullivan
Q414
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Q117
Q217
Q317
State Street Corp 2,302 4% Northern Trust Corp 703 1%
-5,000,000
Dimensional Fund Portolan Capital
1,752 3% 663 1%
Advisors Management
-10,000,000
Citadel Advisors 1,707 3% James Rice Hall 643 1%
Janus Henderson -15,000,000
1,652 3% BNY Mellon Corp 563 1%
Group
Total 52,830
TASER Weapons
X26P Smallest and most compact. Ability to regulate charge output, perform health checks, update
firmware over internet, and provide analytics displaying how and a device is used.
X2 Backup shot, dual lasers to ensure accuracy, and warning arc to de-escalate.
C2 Consumer CEW model. Incapacitating effects that last in 30 second cycles
Pulse and Bolt Sub-compact model
Replacement Cartridges Standard, smart, and training cartridges.
Hardware
Axon Body 2 HD video, wifi-enabled, no wires, mounted at mid-chest level
Axon Flex records from visual perspective of officer, flexibility in how they choose to wear
Axon Flex 2 More rugged industrial design, new mounts, 120-degree field of view, extended battery life
TASER CAM HD Recording device that captures both video and audio of potential and actual TASER use
incidents.
Axon Fleet, 2017 In-car video system; automatic activation, HD video, flexible design. Upgrades continuously
with new software features.
Axon Interview Video and audio recording system designed for interview rooms
Axon Dock Charging station also automatic data sync, automatically uploading to evidence.com
Axon Signal, 2017 Cameras start recording automatically upon triggering events such as opening of patrol car
door, activation of car lightbar, or upholstering of smart weapon.
Software
Evidence.com Event logs and pulse logs
End-to-end solution allows agencies to store data while enabling new workflows for managing
and sharing that data. Upload data, manage simply with search and retrieval features, and then
collaborate effortlessly with prosecutors. Instant and cost-effective scaling. Several licensing
options that tailor to needs of agencies of all sizes.
Evidence.com (Prosecutors) Files shared during discovery, complete chain of custody is maintained, and all evidence
encrypted. Standard prosecutor licenses provided at no cost.
Evidence Sync Allows evidence in any format, from any source to be uploaded to Evidence.com.
Axon Capture Mobile application to allow offices capture digital evidence right from the field. Eliminates
need for separate devices for photo, video, and audio recording.
Axon View Mobile application that wirelessly connects with Axon camera to provide instant playback
unfolding events in field.
Axon Five Enhances and analyzes images and videos. Automates time-consuming tasks like removing
duplicated or mismatched frames
Axon Convert Converts unplayable file formats with ease while also preserving the original file and creates a
report detailing exact conversion/translation changes
Axon Detect Photo analysis program for tamper detection. Reduces need for external consultants, shortens
turnaround time, and allows for use of evidence captured by the public.
Unit Sales
Historical Projected Drivers
2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
X26P 51,283 62,383 79,218 67,411 74,826 83,057 92,194 102,335 113,592 11%
X2 26,901 38,050 47,700 77,099 84,809 93,290 102,619 112,881 124,169 10%
X26 17,770 4,928 4,655 824
Pulse and Bolt 7,249 8,121 9,549 12,556 14,188 16,033 18,117 20,472 23,133 13%
Cartridges 1,618,117 1,694,450 1,979,051 2,424,460 2,426,460 2,680,479 2,961,152 3,271,280 3,613,963 15.2*
Axon Body 10,034 17,522 66,154 101,152 123,405 150,555 183,677 224,086 273,384 22%
Axon Flex 13,219 18,823 14,173 27,696 34,343 42,585 52,806 65,479 81,194 24%
Axon Fleet 2,131 2,450 2,818 3,240 3,727 4,286 15%
Axon Dock 4,219 6,979 16,983 26,112 31,334 37,601 45,122 54,146 64,975 20%
TASER CAM 9,303 11,634 9,566 5,583 5,136 4,725 4,347 3,999 3,679 -8%
Evidence.com seats 59,000 132,000 207,400 274,805 364,117 482,455 639,252 847,009 33%
*Cartridges assigned multiple as function of gun sales
Revenue/Unit
X26P 848 897 915 960 905 905 905 905 905
X2 1,070 1,123 1,104 1,061 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090
X26 1,053 1,489 1,369 2,176
Pulse and Bolt 287 264 375 326 313 313 313 313 313
Cartridges 24 25 26 27 25 25 25 25 25
Axon Body 339 230 195 285 262 262 262 262 262
Axon Flex 301 366 376 142 296 296 296 296 296
Axon Fleet 696 696 696 696 696 696
Axon Dock 407 576 437 378 450 450 450 450 450
TASER CAM 502 494 511 575 521 521 521 521 521
Evidence.com Rev/seat 199 222 260 260 260 260 260 260
Revenue
Historical Projected
($) in thousands 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
X26P 43,512 55,969 72,490 64,739 67,738 75,189 83,460 92,641 102,831
X2 28,774 42,746 52,665 81,820 92,407 101,648 111,813 122,994 135,293
X26 18,712 7,337 6,372 1,793
Pulse and Bolt 2,084 2,146 3,580 4,097 4,444 5,022 5,675 6,413 7,246
Cartridges 38,539 41,674 52,305 65,340 61,748 68,212 75,355 83,247 91,967
Axon Body 3,404 4,029 12,911 28,826 32,373 39,496 48,185 58,785 71,718
Axon Flex 3,981 6,880 5,323 3,937 10,169 12,610 15,636 19,388 24,042
Axon Fleet 1,484 1,707 1,963 2,257 2,596 2,985
Axon Dock 1,719 4,022 7,422 9,879 14,093 16,912 20,294 24,353 29,224
TASER CAM 4,674 5,746 4,888 3,209 2,674 2,460 2,263 2,082 1,915
Evidence.com 11,765 29,260 54,000 71,449 94,670 125,438 166,206 220,222
Total 145,399 182,314 247,216 319,125 358,803 418,181 490,375 578,704 687,444
Warranties 18,731 15,578 21,029 25,530 28,704 33,454 44,134 52,083 61,870
Total 164,130 197,892 268,245 344,655 387,507 451,636 534,509 630,787 749,314
Warranties 11% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9%
Income Statement
Historical Projected
($) In Thousands 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net Sales 164,525 197,892 268,245 332,247 387,507 451,636 534,509 630,787 749,314
COGS 62,977 69,245 97,709 140,100 155,003 171,622 200,441 227,083 254,767
Gross Profit 101,548 128,647 170,536 192,147 232,504 280,014 334,068 403,704 494,547
SG&A 54,158 69,698 108,076 132,105 155,003 158,072 187,078 205,006 243,527
R&D 14,885 23,614 30,609 52,824 62,001 67,745 74,831 82,002 89,918
EBIT 32,505 35,335 31,851 7,217 15,500 54,196 72,159 116,696 161,103
Interest -194 26 -354 4,427 2 2 2 2 2
Pretax Income 32,311 35,361 31,497 11,644 15,502 54,198 72,161 116,698 161,105
Taxes 12,393 15,428 14,200 1,889 4,651 16,259 21,648 35,009 48,331
Net Income 19,918 19,933 17,297 9,755 10,852 37,939 50,513 81,688 112,773
Shares 54,500 54,638 53,536 53,500 53500 53500 53500 53500 53500
EPS 0.37 0.36 0.32 0.18 0.20 0.71 0.94 1.53 2.11
Gross Margin 62% 65% 64% 58% 60% 62% 63% 64% 66%
Op.Margin 20% 18% 12% 2% 4% 12% 14% 19% 22%
Net Margin 12% 10% 6% 3% 3% 8% 9% 13% 15%
Taxes 38% 44% 45% 16% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Capex 2,505 6,003 4,957 12,096 11,625 13,549 16,035 18,924 22,479
D/A 4,317 3,291 3,658 6,600 7,750 9,033 10,690 12,616 14,986
Drivers
% of Revenue
COGS 38% 35% 36% 42% 40% 38% 38% 36% 34%
SG&A 33% 35% 40% 40% 40% 35% 35% 33% 33%
R&D 9% 12% 11% 16% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12%
Taxes 38% 44% 45% 16% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Capex 2% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
D/A 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Working Capital
Historical Projected
($) in thousands 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2020
Accounts and
30,735 27,701 39,466 52,486 61,215 71,346 84,438 99,647 118,371
notes receivable
Inventory 18,323 15,763 34,841 40,870 45,218 50,066 58,473 66,245 74,321
Prepaid
expenses and 4,443 8,165 13,858 13,282 15,491 18,054 21,367 25,216 29,954
other
Total non-cash
53,501 51,629 88,165 106,638 121,924 139,466 164,278 191,109 222,647
current assets
Accounts
7,682 7,333 10,736 15,773 17,451 19,322 22,567 25,566 28,683
payable
Accrued
9,245 8,643 18,248 21,406 23,683 26,222 30,626 34,697 38,926
liabilities
Deferred
14,020 20,851 45,137 39,742 46,352 54,023 63,936 75,452 89,630
revenue
Customer
988 1,226 2,148 2,238 2,610 3,042 3,600 4,249 5,047
deposits
Other 38 87 80 125 138 153 179 203 227
Total non-debt
31,973 38,140 76,349 79,285 90,235 102,763 120,908 140,167 162,514
current liabilities
Net WC 21,528 13,489 11,816 27,353 31,689 36,703 43,370 50,942 60,132
Working Capital Drivers
Sales 164,525 197,892 268,245 332,247 387,507 451,636 534,509 630,787 749,314
COGS 62,977 69,245 97,709 140,100 155,003 171,622 200,441 227,083 254,767
Accounts
19% 14% 15% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%
receivable / sales
Inventory /
29% 23% 36% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29%
COGS
Prepaids / sales 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Accounts
12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
payable / COGS
Accrued
15% 12% 19% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
liabiliites / COGS
Deferred
9% 11% 17% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
revenue / sales
Customer
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
deposits / sales
Other / COGS 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%