April 16, 2018

TO: The Rachel Payne for CA48 Campaign

FR: Cornell Belcher and Roshni Nedungadi

RE: Opportunity for Payne Campaign in a Fluid Electorate

Dana Rohrabacher is a vulnerable Republican incumbent. Investment in Rachel Payne’s

campaign in these critical stages could flip this seat for Democrats sending her to Congress.
Our internal polling shows Rohrabacher’s job approval at just 38 percent approve, and he
currently only garners roughly a third of the vote (34 percent).1 However as the race begins,
none of his challengers are well-defined and the race for second place to make the run-off
is a toss-up, with a large segment of the electorate undecided (21 percent) and fluid, as
none of the other candidate have yet
built up any significant base of support.
Horserace Over Time
Voters are currently broadly unfamiliar 40% 34%
29% 28%
with the slate of candidates. However, 30%
voters in this district are looking for 20% 9% 6%4% 5%3% 4%3%
someone like Rachel to be their next 10%
Congressperson they just don’t know 0%
Dana Rachel Harley Hans Scott Baugh
her yet. Rachel’s profile resonates well Rohrabacher Payne Rouda Keirstead

with Democratic and Indpendent

Initial horserace Informed horserace
voters in the district – the daughter of a
single working mom who worked her
way through school, breaking the glass ceiling in the tech industry, creating jobs and
opportunities for others along the way. Indeed, after learning more about Rachel voters
move readily towards her as she pulls ahead of the crowded field into striking distance of
the incumbent and well-positioned – with her profile resonating with Independent voters
– to take on the incumbent in the run-off.

Rachel is a strong candidate with an opportunity to flip this seat for Democrats. She has
the ability to consolidate Democrats behind her (48 percent of Registered Democrats
choose Rachel in the informed horserace) and compete for critical Independent votes that
will be much-needed if Democrats are to win in this Republican leaning district. With the
proper resources to tell her story, Rachel has the ability to break away from the pack and
secure a spot in the general election.
1
Survey conducted April 2 – April 8, 2018 of 600 likely primary voters in California’s 48th Congressional
District. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.0%