The selected aspects of low doses

influence on organisms

mgr inż. Krzysztof Wojciech Fornalski

Dział Szkolenia i Doradztwa
Instytut Problemów Jądrowych, Świerk

krzysztof.fornalski@gmail.com
Influence of radiation - overview
DNA damages

Repair

Cell death

Mutation  cancer
System of DNA repair
 non-radiation damages
also repaired
Number of DNA damages
is usually linear with the dose
Adaptive response
Krzysztof W. Fornalski 2
Adaptive response
HIGH DOSE

- Chromosomal aberrations
- Mutations
GROWING
- Genetic instability
- Cells death

HIGH DOSE
LOW DOSE
No disturbances
GROWING or weaker ones
GROWING

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 3
 Low doses of ionizing radiation
Below 150-200 mSv per year
Three major hypothesies:

Linear no-threshold (LNT)

Linear no-threshold (LNT)

Threshold

Hormetic (J-shape or U-shape)
Threshold

Radiation hormesis

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 4
DOSE
Which hypothesis?
Difficulties in low dose region
Data are usually not precise
(statistically nonsignificant or no data at
all)
New important researches all over the
world
Radiation protection standards based on
LNT hypothesis

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 5
Main goal of the Thesis
Researching many different aspects of low
dose radiation influence on organisms
Testing which model (linear, threshold or
hormetic) fits best to the presented data
Methodology:

Statistical analysis of existing and recently
collected data

Simulation and modelling

Experiment on plants

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 First example
Statistical analysis of cancer cases
among nuclear workers
-Fornalski K.W., Dobrzyński L. 'The healthy worker effect and nuclear industry workers'. Dose-Response, vol. 8,
no. 2, 2010, pp. 125-147
-Fornalski K.W., Dobrzyński L. 'Ionizing radiation and the health of nuclear industry workers'. International
Journal of Low Radiation, vol. 6, no. 1, 2009, pp. 57-78
-Fornalski K.W., Dobrzyński L. 'Efekt Zdrowego Pracownika w przemyśle jądrowym'. Biuletyn PAA
Bezpieczeństwo Jądrowe i Ochrona Radiologiczna, vol. 77, no. 3, 2009, pp. 46-52
-Fornalski K.W., Dobrzyński L. 'Pracownicy przemysłu jądrowego a promieniowanie jonizujące'. Postępy
Techniki Jądrowej, vol. 52, no. 2, 2009, pp. 29-37
-Fornalski K.W. 'Narażenie pracowników przemysłu jądrowego na promieniowanie jonizujące'. Ekoatom, vol. 1,
no. 1, 2011, pp. 59-65
Statistical analysis
Bayesian methods of analysis
Nuclear workers from 15 countries
(excluding Poland)

Nuclear workers from Świerk will be
analyzed later
One observes statistically significant
decrease of deaths among irradiated
workers

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 8
Cancer deaths from 15 countries
100
24 000 workers
90
Average dose-rate: 2 mSv/year
80
70
SMR [%]

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
controls nuclear workers
allKrzysztof
causesW. Fornalski
cancers only 9
Results
SMR for cancers equals 19%
Average annual excess dose 2 mSv per
worker
However the SMR for all causes is not
equal 100%
Healthy worker effect?
Need for future studies

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 10
 Second example
Pooled analysis of 28 studies on
radon induced lung cancers
Fornalski K.W., Dobrzyński L. 'Pooled Bayesian analysis of 28 studies on radon induced lung cancers'. Health
Physics, September 2011 (in press)
Radon and lung cancers
Radon – alpha radioactive gas
Bayesian analysis of data from 28
popular radon studies
Unified data through UNSCEAR
commission recomendations
Conversion factor:

1 Bq m-3 = 0.179 mSv/year to lungs

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 12
28 studies (without uncertainties)

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 13
Pooled Bayesian analysis
7 models fitted to data and tested:

Dose-independent

Linear models (including LNT)

Quadratic models
Model selection algorithm shows that the
most likely model is the one which states that
the mortality due to lungs cancer is
independent of the dose (within observed
range of doses)

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 14
 Third example
Standard mortality ratios of cancer in
higher radiation areas in Poland

Fornalski K.W., Dobrzyński L. ‘Remarks on possible lower cancer mortality in high natural radiation areas in
Poland’. Dose-Response 2011 (in press)
High radiation areas in Poland
Radiation from natural origin:

Radon concentration

Gamma rays (mostly from the ground)

Others (cosmics, in-body elements etc.)
The lowest dose-rate
in Świnoujście: 1.06 mSv/year
The highest dose-rate
in Jelenia Góra: 4.75 mSv/year
Doses from man-made sources not included!
All data taken from National Cancer Registry
and radioecological maps and studies
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Natural gamma radiation in Poland

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 17
6 sets of data

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 18
 SMR of cancers and excess dose
1,0%

0,0%
The increase of cancer mortality [%]

-1,0%

-2,0%

-3,0%

-4,0%
P olis h s tudy
-5,0% controls
LNT as s umption
-6,0%
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4
Ex ce ss e ffe ctive do se fro m na tura l o rig in [mS v/ye a r]
Krzysztof W. Fornalski 19
Results
All six sets show the regular decrease of
cancer deaths
No confounding factors included!
Many explanations of such decrease
One of them can be hormetic effect of
ionizing radiation
congruity with many other data

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 20
 Fourth example
Author’s stochastic Markov model of
cellular response to radiation

Fornalski K.W., Dobrzyński L., Janiak M.K. 'A Stochastic Markov Model of Cellular Response to Radiation'. Dose
Response, 2011 (in press)
The new model
A group of virtual cells and its response
to some dose of radiation
The new point of view – completely
stochastic approach instead of
deterministic ones
Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques
Dozens of input parameters – physics
and biology of cells’ radiation

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Krzysztof W. Fornalski 23
 Phit = 1 – exp ( - const1 · D )

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An example of one branch

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Results of modelling
An influence of many biological mechanisms
of single cells
Results with and without adaptive response
All results are consistent with many
experiments
Threshold appears in very natural way
Model can be easy applied to any types of
cells or tissues

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Low doses

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Medium doses

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High doses

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 Fifth example
Irradiation of cress

Fornalski K.W., Adamowski Ł., Dobrzyński L., Turowski T.W., Wojnarowicz J. 'The effect of low doses of ionizing
radiation on the cress (Lepidium sativum L.)'. International Journal of Low Radiation, 2011 (in press)
Irradiation of plants
Plants are much more resistant to
radiation than humans
The main goal: find the possible
threshold (and/or hormetic period) in
the case of irradiated cress
Cress (lepidium sativum L., Pol.
rzeżucha ogrodowa) – the popular &
fast growing plant

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 31
Cress (Lepidium sativum L.)
Gamma irradiation during growth
Up to 4 Gy

Gamma irradiation of dry seeds

Up to 100 Gy
Growing in phytotron chambers (IBB PAN)

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Experiment

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 Results of dry seeds irradiation
1,20
1,15
1,10 Relative ratios – comparison
1,05
with the control group
The sprouting force

1,00
0,95
0,90
0,85
0,80
0,75
0,70
0,01 0,1 1 10 100
Cumula tive do se o n dry se e ds [Gy] 1,4

1,3
Relative number of formed plants

Statistically non 1,2

significant hormetic 1,1

effect in relative 1,0

number of formed
plants after 7 days 0,9

0,8
0,01 0,1 1 10 100
Krzysztof W. FornalskiCumula tive do se o n dry se e ds [Gy] 34
 For higher doses
1,4
Relative number o f fo rmed plants

1,2

1,0

0,8

0,6
da ta from Fig. 2

0,4
da ta from (Ma je e d e t a l., 2010)
control
0,2
0,01 0,1 1 10 100 1000
cumula tive do se o n dry se e ds [Gy]
Final conclusions
All presented data show that LNT
hipothesis cannot be generally valid
All statistical analysis shows sometimes
the threshold model and sometimes the
hormetic one
The one possible compromise: the
threshold model (?)

Krzysztof W. Fornalski 36
THANK YOU
krzysztof.fornalski@gmail.com