Você está na página 1de 7

Joseph H. Martin, MAI, and Mark W.

Sussman, MAI

The Twelve Rs: An


Overview of Capitalization
Rate Derivation

The development and proof of the overall rate (RO) in direct capitalization is as
important today as it was 10 or 20 years ago. The difference is that today there
are 12 ways to prove or disprove an overall capitalization rate, and with which
even parts of the overall rate can be proven. One way this is accomplished is by
using available formulas to solve for components that can alternatively be used
to derive the overall rate, and then comparing those components against mar-
ket expectations to test their validity. This article explains the 12 ways an over-
all rate can be developed and tested in the real world.

I n current Appraisal Institute courses, stu-


dents are learning ways to create and prove
computers and yield analyses, an appraiser
must be able to prove his or her rate of conver-
an overall rate, a rate necessary to convert one sion, whether it is a capitalization rate or a yield
year of income into value, by a process known rate, and should know the many ways to prove
as direct capitalization. All too often apprais- or disprove a rate selection. Further, there are
ers get comfortable with only one way to cre- many commercial properties that should be
ate or prove a capitalization rate in their ap- valued by direct capitalization. DCF analysis
praisal practice without knowing, checking, may be the only way to value investment-
or proving their rate with other methods. grade real estate, but for the bulk of smaller,
Some argue that direct capitalization is a thing noninvestment-grade real estate, direct capi-
of the past, and that creating or attempting to talization simulates the process used by buy-
convert a single year’s income into value is a ers and sellers in those types of markets.
useless academic exercise in today’s world of The authors have determined that there
computers and data available for conversion are 12 different ways to derive and prove an
of income into value by sophisticated dis- overall rate for direct capitalization.1 They
counted cash flow (DCF) analyses. Even with are as follows:

1. Most of the formulas discussed here are presented in Appraisal Institute courses “Basic Income Capitalization” (310) and “Ad-
vanced Income Capitalization” (510).

Joseph H. Martin, MAI, is president of Martin Appraisal Associates, Inc., Lawrenceville, New Jersey. He
received his BS in business administration at Rider College, Lawrenceville, and is an instructor for the Ap-
praisal Institute. He is an author of several textbooks on real estate licensing.
Mark W. Sussman, MAI, is vice president of John O. Lasser Associates, Inc., Livingston, New Jersey. He
provides appraisal and consulting services on a wide variety of property types, with emphasis on ad
valorem tax litigation and condemnation. He received his BA in psychology from Lehigh University,
Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, and is an instructor for the Appraisal Institute.

149
IO by a rate, or by multiplying income by a fac-
RO = tor. In the second scenario, multiplying in-
VO (1)
come by a factor, the income can be poten-
This is the universal formula of rate de-
tial gross income (PGI) or effective gross in-
velopment. It is generally market extracted
come (EGI). This approach is generally used
when the appraiser knows the net operating
in the sales comparison approach to value
income (IO) and the value or price (VO) of a
and is not considered a capitalization ap-
property. The RO derived by this formula
proach per se. However, two simplistic parts
implicitly contains all of the assumptions
of this formula can be quickly extracted from
about investor expectations inherent in that
the market, i.e., the gross income multiplier
particular sale or value, and to be useful
(GIM) and the net income ratio (NIR), which
should be applied to only those properties
is the complement of the expense ratio. As
that have the same characteristics as the sale
an example, simple research would indicate
(i.e., same land and building ratios, use, lease
what the gross rental would be from the
terms, vacancy rates, expense ratios, value
market at the time a property is sold, and a
or income expectations, level of risk and in-
gross income multiplier could be developed
vestor motivation). It would be inappropri-
by dividing the sales price by the potential
ate to extract an overall rate from a sale of an
gross income (SP ÷ PGI = PGIM). Further
80-unit, older, urban, mid-rise apartment
analysis of the comparable sales would in-
complex and use it directly to value a newer,
dicate the typical expense ratio, and 100%
150-unit, suburban garden complex. Expense
less the expense ratio would equal the net
ratios, appreciation in value, risk, and inves-
income ratio. Once these two figures are
tor motivation between these two properties
known, a potential overall rate can be devel-
would be too great to make a direct compari-
oped by simply applying the formula ex-
son. However, once the overall rate (RO) is
pressed above.3
extracted, it can be useful for comparable
properties, and since it is market extracted,
RO = DCR × M × RM (4)
it is very persuasive.
Commonly referred to as the
RO = SR + LR + MR + RR (2) “underwriter’s method” of developing an
overall rate and used by lenders with their
This old formula of developing a built-
own requirements for debt coverage ratio
up overall rate is antiquated. Here, an over-
(DCR), mortgage or loan-to-value ratio (M),
all rate is built up through a combination of
and mortgage constant (RM), it is a good tool
a safe rate (SR), a liquidity rate (LR), a man-
when it is market derived. All appraisers
agement rate (MR), and a risk rate (RR). To
should check with their mortgage sources
assume that an appraiser would have the
on the type of property they are appraising
judgment to assign a proper factor for loss
and know these components of lender re-
of liquidity, or management, or risk in
quirements. It is based on the premise that
today’s complex and changing economic cli-
the lender establishes the control on vari-
mate, and to develop a rate in this fashion
ous properties by controlling the amount of
are incomprehensible. It can, however, be
risk they will take (loan-to-value ratio or M),
useful in making comparative judgments
the interest rate and term they require (the
once an overall rate has been created through
mortgage constant or RM), and the amount
other means.2
of net operating income they deem safe to
cover the debt (debt coverage ratio or DCR).
NIR
RO = The loan-to-value ratio and mortgage con-
GIM (3) stant are used in both the band of invest-
There are only two ways direct capitali- ment and the Ellwood formula for devel-
zation can be employed: by dividing income oping overall rates, and debt coverage ra-

2. Charles B. Akerson, “Builtup and Blended Rates,” Capitalization Theory and Techniques Study Guide (Chicago: American Institute of
Real Estate Appraisers, 1984), 21. It should be acknowledged that these builtup rates are truly yield rates and, therefore, even if an
appraiser has the judgment or expertise to develop an overall rate by this method, he or she would have to convert the yield rate
to an overall capitalization rate.
3. Ibid., 18. The problem in this approach to prove an overall rate is that it may not be possible to determine the true expenses in a sale
property, unless the appraiser is involved in the transaction or has direct knowledge of this information. Relying on third-party
information for the actual expenses at the time of sale may be insufficient to develop an accurate overall rate. However, if the
appraiser is cautious and uses typical expressed expense ratios, it still becomes a good check on other methods developed here.

150 The Appraisal Journal, April 1997


tios are easily surveyed or acquired from equity participants, not from hard market
mortgage research sources such as the data. It is a good way, however, to test a capi-
American Council of Life Insurance Com- talization rate developed from better market-
panies’ Investment Bulletin.4 oriented sources.6
If the assumptions of loan-to-value ratio
(M), mortgage constant (RM), and debt cover- RO = L × RL + B × RB (6)
age ratio (DCR) come from a specific lender Another band of investment technique
rather than comparable market data, the over- is derived using the relationship of known
all rate will reflect the lender’s value rather physical components of property, i.e., the
than market value. Appraisers who use the land and the buildings. The ratio of land
Ellwood or band of investment method to value and/or building value to the overall
develop an overall rate (RO) would do well to property value must be known, as well as
check this rate by using the formula: the capitalization rate for each physical com-
RO ponent. Used primarily in land and/or
DCR =
M × RM building residual techniques where one
value is known, the income for that value can
If the debt coverage ratio (DCR) calcu-
be extracted from the net operating income
lated using this formula is inconsistent with
by multiplying the appropriate capitalization
current bank lending criteria applicable to
rate by the known value. The residual in-
the subject property, then the overall rate de-
come is then capitalized into a value estimate
rived through the Ellwood or band of invest-
by its appropriate rate.
ment method may be flawed.5
It is a good technique in highest and best
use analysis where building values are
RO = M × RM + (1 − M)RE (5)
known or can be reasonably estimated and
Known as the band of investment the question is what is the most profitable
method of developing an overall rate, this is use of the land.7
based on the presumption that a capitaliza-
tion rate should amount to a weighted aver- RO = YO (7)
age of debt and equity funds, dependent on
When an appraiser expects that income
the risk quality of the property investment.
and value will remain unchanged during a
Also known as the mortgage equity analy-
holding period, the property is basically val-
sis, the formula simply states that the over-
ued by capitalization in perpetuity, i.e., the
all rate (RO) is the weighted average of the
overall capitalization rate and the yield rate
mortgage capitalization rate (the mortgage
are synonymous. In other words, the yield
constant or RM), and the equity capitalization
to the property investment is equal to the rate
rate (RE). The overall rate generated by this
of return.
formula must satisfy both the mortgage re-
quirement of the lender and the pre-tax cash
RO = YO − ∆O a (8)
flow requirement of the equity participant.
Since it is a composite rate, weighted in pro- When there is a change in income and/or
portion to the investment represented by value over a holding period, the above for-
debt and equity, it is believed by some to be mula can be adjusted accordingly. This is a
infallible because the greatest weight toward general purpose formula to develop an over-
the overall rate is the debt requirement which all capitalization rate where RO is the cap rate,
can be easily obtained by a survey of lend- YO is the property yield rate, ∆O is the change
ers in the type of investment property to be in property value and a is the appropriate
valued. It is a popular method used by ap- conversion factor. At present, there are three
praisers to develop an overall rate, but is of- variations of the conversion factor based on
ten misused because the data used to de- the appraiser ’s perception of anticipated
velop the rate is from surveys of lenders and changes in income and value over a projected

4. American Council of Life Insurance Companies, Investment Bulletin (Washington, D.C.: American Council of Life Insurance Com-
panies).
5. The Appraisal of Real Estate, 10th ed. (Chicago: Appraisal Institute, 1992): 472–473.
6. Ibid., 470–471.
7. Ibid., 472.

Martin/Sussman: The Twelve Rs: An Overview of Capitalization Rate Derivation 151


holding period, each of which will change defined by Charles B. Akerson, it is the alge-
the overall rate (RO).8 braic equivalent of DCF analysis.10
The Akerson format expressed algebra-
RO = YO − ∆O 1 ⁄Sn (9) ically is as follows:
If it is forecasted that income will remain
level and value will change over the projected RO = (M × RM) + (1 − M) YE − M × P 1⁄Sn − ∆O 1⁄Sn
holding period, the overall change in value The Akerson format as it is more com-
(∆O) is multiplied by the sinking fund factor monly used is shown below. When presented
or SFF (calculated based on the yield rate and in this manner, it is easier for most people to
the holding period) to derive an appropriate comprehend and to solve step by step than
capitalization rate. Typically, it would be un- the algebraic formula.
usual for net income to remain completely
level over a holding period and still have an Mortgage ratio (M) × Mortgage constant (RM) = 0.000000
expected change in value. However, this may + Equity ratio (1 − M) × Equity yield rate (YE) = 0.000000
be appropriate in those situations where a Weighted average
property is under a long-term net lease at a Adjustment for Equity Buildup:
flat rent, and property values are increasing − Mortgage ratio (M) × Part paid off (P)
or decreasing due to supply and demand fac- × Sinking fund factor (1 ⁄Sn) = 0.000000
tors or are in an inflationary market. Basic rate (r)
Adjustment for Appreciation/Depreciation:
RO = YO − ∆O 1 ⁄n (10) − (+ ∆O) × Sinking fund factor (1⁄Sn) = 0.000000
Overall rate (RO )
Where it is assumed that both income
and value change on a straight-line basis
during a holding period, the overall change The first part of Akerson’s format closely
in value (∆O) is multiplied by the inverse of resembles the simple band of investment
the number of years in the projected hold- method with one important difference: The
ing period (1⁄n). equity rate used here is the equity yield rate
(YE), not the equity capitalization rate (eq-
RO = YO − CR (11) uity dividend rate or RE) found in the band
of investment. The next line adjusts the mort-
If both income and value are expected gage/equity-weighted average for the equity
to change at a constant ratio (compound rate) buildup that accrues to the investor as the
over a holding period, then the overall rate mortgage is paid off, and this adjusted rate
(RO) is simply the expected yield rate (YO) is known as the basic rate (r). The last line
adjusted by the rate of change (CR). It stands adjusts the basic rate for total anticipated
to reason that if the investor’s expected yield appreciation or depreciation over the hold-
rate is 12%, and both income and value ing period to arrive at the overall capitaliza-
change at +2% per year, then the overall capi- tion rate (RO).
talization rate is 10%, or 12% less 2%.9 Originally the Ellwood formula was de-
veloped only for level income streams, and
YE − M(YE + P 1⁄Sn − RM) − ∆O 1⁄Sn was later refined to allow for variations when
RO =
(1 + ∆I J) or (K) (12) different income patterns were anticipated,
Most readers will recognize this as the by the use of the Ellwood J-factor or the K-
Ellwood formula which derives an overall factor. However, with the use of today’s fi-
capitalization rate that incorporates equity nancial calculators and personal computers,
yield requirements and mortgage financing a simpler method, no matter what pattern
terms. Developed by L. W. Ellwood and re- of income is expected over a holding period,
is to find the equivalent level income.11

8. Ibid., 494–495.
9. Ibid., 498. It is unrealistic in the real world to expect both income and value to change at the same rate during an anticipated
holding period. The only exception to this may be in a leased fee analysis where the lease is written to guarantee both a constant
increase in income and a resale price at the same rate of growth.
10. Some argue that the Ellwood technique is obsolete with the widespread availability of easy-to-use spreadsheet programs that
can perform complex DCF analyses quickly, accurately, and inexpensively. See Wayne Kelly, Donald R. Epley, and Phillip
Mitchell, “A Requiem for Ellwood,” The Appraisal Journal (July 1995): 284–290.
11. An excellent reference on how to calculate equivalent level income can be found in Course 510, Session 6: “Stabilizing Income
and Yield Capitalization (DCF) Using an Equity Yield Rate.”

152 The Appraisal Journal, April 1997


Knowing the 12 Rs provides the appraiser VO = $300,000 ÷ 0.11846 = $2,532,500
with a complete bag of tools with which to (rounded) $2,530,000
test, develop, reason, and prove value. As an
The value estimates obtained by deriv-
example, assume an appraiser is valuing a
ing the overall capitalization rate (R O)
property with a net operating level income of
through two different methods range from
$300,000. This income should remain stable
$2,530,000 to $2,740,000. This reflects a dif-
for the foreseeable future. This appraiser’s
ference of 8.3% or $210,000—a significant di-
standard operating procedure is to use only
vergence although both methods are based
the band of investment method to develop an
on the same set of facts. The question begs
overall capitalization rate (RO). A survey of
itself: Which is the correct way to develop
local lenders indicates that they would lend
an overall rate, and which value estimate is
money based on a loan-to-value ratio of 70%,
right? The answer lies in the type of prop-
at a fixed interest rate of 10% with monthly
erty being valued and the most likely way
payments for a term of 20 years. Further, a
an investor in the market for the subject prop-
survey of investors indicates that they expect
erty develops or creates his or her capitali-
a 12% cash-on-cash return (RE). The overall
zation rate.
capitalization rate would be derived through
As another example, assume a similar set
the band of investment method as follows:
of facts. The subject property is expected to
continue to produce a level net operating in-
RO = M × RM + (1 − M) RE
come of $300,000. A market investigation in-
= 0.70 × 0.1158 + 0.30 × 0.12 dicates that local lenders will lend money
= 0.08106 + 0.03600 based on a loan-to-value ratio of 70%, at a
= 0.11706 fixed interest rate of 10% with monthly pay-
The overall value (VO) would then be: ments for a term of 20 years, and an expected
debt coverage ratio (DCR) of 1.25. Investor’s
$300,000 ÷ 0.11706 = $2,562,788 holding periods are generally not more than
10 years, and investors’ yield expectations
(rounded) $2,560,000
are 14%. The market for this class of prop-
Further investigation would have also erty is expected to appreciate approximately
disclosed that lenders typically expect a DCR 50% over a 10-year holding period, or 4.14%
of 1.35, that investor’s holding periods are per year compounded. (This was not an un-
generally not more than 10 years, and that usual assumption during periods of rapid
the yield expectation for investors is 14%. inflation such as the mid-1980s, when some
A check on the band of investment rate markets experienced increases of 15%–20%
selection could be made by (a) the per year.) A market survey indicates that in-
underwriter’s method, and (b) the Ellwood vestors are willing to accept a cash-on-cash
formula, as follows: return (RE) of 6% probably due to the antici-
pation of significant appreciation in property
RO = DCR × M × RM (a) value.
= 1.35 × 0.70 × 0.1158 The appraiser in our example consis-
= 0.10943 tently uses the Ellwood mortgage-equity
VO = $300,000 ÷ 0.10943 analysis presented in the Akerson format.
After all, this advanced technique accounts
= $2,741,478
for every component of value in the overall
(rounded) $2,740,000
capitalization rate, including the investors’
required equity yield (YE), mortgage financ-
YE − M(YE + P 1⁄Sn − RM) − ∆o 1⁄Sn
RO = ing, the equity buildup (P) accrued by mak-
(1 + ∆I J) or (K) (b) ing mortgage payments over the holding
= 0.14 − 0.70 (0.14 + (0.26976 × 0.05171) period, thereby reducing the principal bal-
− 0.1158) − (−0.10 × 0.05171) ance, and the effects of any appreciation or
= 0.14 − 0.70 (0.03815) + 0.005171 depreciation in property value (∆O). The
= 0.14 − 0.02671 + 0.005171 overall capitalization rate (RO) is derived as
= 0.11846 follows:

Martin/Sussman: The Twelve Rs: An Overview of Capitalization Rate Derivation 153


Weighted Average: appraiser to review the assumptions on
70.0% Mortgage × 0.1158 Mortgage constant = 0.08106 which the overall rate is based.
30.0% Equity × 0.1400 Equity yield rate = 0.04200 If the appraiser uses these techniques as
Weighted average: 0.12306 a check, the inconsistencies will become
Less Equity Buildup: readily apparent. He or she reviews the as-
70.0% Mortgage × 0.26976 Part paid off sumptions and finds that the anticipated ap-
× 0.05171 Sinking fund factor = 0.00976 preciation of 50% over the 10-year holding
Basic rate: 0.11330 period is overly aggressive, and tempers the
− Appreciation/+ Depreciation: expected increase in property value to 25%.
50.0% Appr. × 0.05171 Sinking fund factor = −0.02586 The resulting Ellwood/Akerson capitaliza-
Overall capitalization rate 0.08744 tion rate derivation now appears as follows:
(rounded) 8.74%
Weighted Average:
Capitalizing the net operating income of 70% Mortgage × 0.1158 Mortgage constant = 0.08106
$300,000 at the indicated overall rate of 8.74% 30% Equity × 0.1400 Equity yield rate = 0.04200
results in a value estimate of $3,432,500. The Weighted average: 0.12306
appraiser, after checking his calculations Less Equity Buildup:
twice concludes a value of $3,432,500. 70.0% Mortgage × 0.26971 Part paid off
Once more, the formulas presented here × 0.05171 Sinking fund factor = 0.00976
can be used to check the validity of the de- Basic rate: 0.11330
rived overall capitalization rate of 8.74%, in- − Appreciation/+ Depreciation:
cluding (c) the underwriter’s method, and 25.00% Appr. × 0.05171 Sinking fund factor = −0.01293
(d) the band of investment technique: Overall capitalization rate 0.10037
(rounded) 10.04%
RO = DCR × M × RM (c)
and The appraiser again applies the same for-
mulas to check the consistency of his as-
RO sumptions and finds the following:
DCR =
M × RM
0.0874 RO = DCR × M × RM (e)
=
0.70 × 0.1158 and
= 1.08 RO
DCR =
Clearly, this analysis shows a debt cov- M × RM
erage ratio significantly lower than the 1.25 0.1004
DCR required by lenders as found in the =
0.70 × 0.1158
appraiser’s market investigation. Something
is wrong and should be a red flag to the ap- = 1.24
praiser that further investigation and a re- The indicated debt coverage ratio is now
view of the assumptions on which the over- consistent with the DCR required by local
all rate is based may be needed. lenders as found in the appraiser’s market
investigation.
RO = M × RM + (1 − M)RE (d)
and RO = M × RM + (1 − M)RE (f)

RO − (M × RM) and
RE = RO − (M × RM)
1−M
RE =
0.0874 − (0.70 × 0.1158) 1−M
= 0.1004− (0.70 × 0.1158)
1 − 0.70
=
= 0.02113 or 2.11% 1 − 0.70
= 0.06447 or 6.45%
Similarly, this analysis indicates a cash-
on-cash return (equity dividend rate, RE) of Again, using the formula as a check in-
2%, far below the 6% return required by dicates a cash-on-cash return (equity divi-
market participants. Again, there is an incon- dend rate, RE) that is consistent with the 6%
sistency and this type of check can warn an return required by market participants.

154 The Appraisal Journal, April 1997


This process of testing capitalization As has been shown in this article, it is
rates resulted in revising the overall capitali- imperative in today’s real estate investment
zation rate from 8.74% to 10.04%. Based on a world to look at all the ways an overall capi-
first-year net operating income of $300,000, talization rate can be developed and to use
the estimated value is reduced from all the data available in the market to develop
$3,432,000 to $2,988,000. This reflects a de- and test overall rates for every income valu-
crease of 13%, which is significant in any ation problem.
appraisal assignment.

Martin/Sussman: The Twelve Rs: An Overview of Capitalization Rate Derivation 155

Você também pode gostar