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SPE 140556

Integration of Production Analysis and Rate-time Analysis via Parametric


Correlations — Theoretical Considerations and Practical Applications
D. Ilk, Texas A&M University/DeGolyer and MacNaughton, J.A. Rushing, Apache Corp., and T.A. Blasingame,
Texas A&M University

Copyright 2011, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference and Exhibition held in The Woodlands, Texas, USA, 24–26 January 2011.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper have not been
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Abstract
Well performance analysis in unconventional reservoirs is a challenging task because of the non-uniqueness associated with
estimating well/formation properties. In addition, estimation of reserves is often uncertain due to very long transient flow
periods. Recently, new semi-empirical rate-time relations (Ilk et al. 2008 and 2010) have been shown to properly model the
rate-time behavior for wells in unconventional reservoirs. The success of these new rate-time relations has led us to focus on
finding theoretical and empirical relationships between rate-time model parameters with well/formation properties.
This work attempts to integrate model-based production analysis (i.e., semi-analytical/analytical solutions) and rate-time
analysis by using parametric correlations. We perform production analysis and rate-time analysis for various tight gas and
shale gas wells, and then correlate the various model parameters from the rate-time equations with the well/formation
properties estimated using full (model-based) production data analysis.
We demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology by using a sample of wells producing in tight gas and shale gas
reservoirs. We can show that the integration of production analysis and rate-time analysis via parametric correlations is
highly-dependent on the size of data sample (i.e., the number of wells) and the data quality. When high-quality data and
ample production data are available, formation permeability and fracture half-length are well-correlated with the model
parameters of the rate-time relations.

Introduction
Unconventional reservoir systems such as tight gas sands, shale gas, tight/shale oil, and coalbed methane reservoirs have
recently become a significant source of hydrocarbon production and offer remarkable potential for reserves growth and future
production. Unconventional reservoir systems can be described as hydrocarbon accumulations which are difficult to be
characterized and produced by conventional exploration and production technologies. Complex geological and petrophysical
systems describe unconventional reservoirs in addition to heterogeneities at all scales similar to conventional reservoir
systems. Because of the low to ultra-low permeability of these reservoir systems, well stimulation operations (e.g., single or
multi-stage hydraulic fracturing, etc.) are required to establish production from the formations at commercial rates.
The common industry practice in unconventional reservoirs is to complete horizontal wells and perform multiple stage
(transverse) fracture treatments. Therefore analytical/semi-analytical modeling of horizontal wells with multiple transverse
fractures is important in terms of diagnosing well performance behavior of these wells. Soliman et al. (1990) present the
production forecast of horizontal wells with multiple infinite-conductivity fractures. van Kruysdijk and Dullaert (1989) provide
an analytical solution which introduces the "compound linear flow" concept. van Kruysdijk and Dullaert show that at early time
dominant flow is linear, perpendicular to the fracture face until pressure transients of the individual fractures begin to interfere
leading to a compound linear flow regime. Raghavan et al. (1994) provide a mathematical description of inflow into the late-
time compound linear flow regime, similar to the model proposed by van Kruysdijk and Dullaert. Other analytical solutions to
model the pressure transient behavior of horizontal wells include Guo and Evans (1993), Larsen and Hegre (1994) and Horne
and Temeng (1995) solutions. Medeiros et al. (2006) provide a semi-analytical solution which models the entire range of flow
regimes surrounding a horizontal well with multiple fractures. Medeiros, et al. include a dual permeability region near the
fracture faces to represent complex fractured region surrounding primary the primary planar hydraulic fractures.
2 D. Ilk, J.A. Rushing, and T.A. Blasingame SPE 140556

On the other hand, reserves estimation in unconventional reservoir systems has been primarily performed using the
conventional Arps' decline curve relations (Arps 1945). The application of Arps' relations (specifically the hyperbolic
relation) for reserve estimates yields significant overestimates of reserves as Arps' relations are only applicable during
boundary-dominated flow regime whereas unconventional reservoir systems exhibit extremely long transient flow periods.
Recently two rate-time relations have been introduced to estimate reserves in unconventional reservoirs: Valko (2009) and Ilk
et al. (2008 and 2010) provide new rate-time relations in the form of the "stretched exponential function" (Kohlrausch 1854).
These relations have been proven to be successful in modeling the rate-time behavior properly and also these relations
provide consistent and more realistic reserve estimates compared to Arps' decline relations.
Recent developments in well completion technologies have transformed the unconventional reservoir systems into
economically feasible reservoirs. However, the uncertainty associated with reserve estimates and non-uniqueness related
with well/reservoir parameter estimation, are the main issues in future development of these reservoirs. The primary goal of
this study is to link rate-time decline relations with model-based analysis results. Particularly, we try to put forward an initial
basis for a theoretical understanding for why specific rate-time decline relations (i.e., power-law exponential or stretched
exponential relations) approximate the rate-time data to a certain extent. Such understanding could offer a theoretical basis
for the rate-time relation model parameters and could question the perception about the rate-time decline relations as only
relations for curve-fitting purposes. To that end, in this paper we will present our results from three different shale gas fields
and one tight gas field. As mentioned before, this is a study, which is in a beginning phase, and more work needs to be
performed (obviously more data need to be analyzed) for improved correlations and better understanding of the behavior of
the relations.

Methodologies
In this section we describe the rate-time relation and the model-based analysis methodologies which are used in this work.
The original definitions of the "loss-ratio" and the "loss-ratio derivative", which were previously introduced by Johnson and
Bollens (1927) are given as:

1 q (t )
≡− (Definition of the loss-ratio) ........................................................................................ (1)
D dq (t ) / dt

d ⎡1⎤ d ⎡ q (t ) ⎤
b≡ ⎢ D ⎥ ≡ − dt ⎢ ⎥ (Derivative of the loss-ratio) ....................................................................................... (2)
dt ⎣ ⎦ ⎣ dq (t ) / dt ⎦

Continuous evaluation of the "loss-ratio" and the "loss-ratio derivative" indicates power-law behavior (see Ilk et al. 2008).
Therefore, the D-parameter trend can be modeled by using a power-law equation which is given as:

D(t ) = D1t −(1− n) ................................................................................................................................................................ (3)

Substituting Eq. 3 into the loss-ratio definition (Eq. 1) and solving the associated differential equation yields:

q (t ) ⎡ D ⎤
= exp ⎢− 1 t n ⎥ ........................................................................................................................................................ (4)
qˆ i ⎣ n ⎦

Eq. 4 reduces in form to the power-law loss ratio rate decline relation as:

q(t ) = qˆ i exp[− Dˆ i t n ] ....................................................................................................................................................... (5)


SPE 140556 Integration of Production Analysis and Rate-time Analysis via Parametric Correlations 3

Valko (2009) presents another form of Eq. 5, which is given as:

q(t ) = qˆ i exp[−(t / τ ) n ] ..................................................................................................................................................... (6)

Eqs. 5 and 6 are essentially same, and in the form of "stretched exponential function" which was introduced by Kohlrausch
(1854) to describe the discharge of a capacitor. Williams and Watts (1970) utilize the stretched exponential function to
characterize the dielectric relaxation rates in polymers. Kisslinger (1993) uses the stretched exponential function as an
alternative to model aftershock decay rate as opposed to power-law functions. Phillips (1996) describes the stretched
exponential nature of relaxation processes in disordered electronic and molecular systems. The general concept is that while
empirical, stretched exponential function is successful in modeling decays — particularly, decays (or relaxations) in
randomly disordered and chaotic systems. Ilk et al. (2008) propose the following modified version (i.e., power-law
exponential relation) of Eq. 5 to approximate late time behavior (i.e., boundary-dominated flow behavior) in unconventional
reservoir systems:

q(t ) = qˆ i exp[− D∞ t − Dˆ i t n ] ............................................................................................................................................. (7)

On the other hand, we utilize the following solutions for model-based analysis. For, hydraulically fractured vertical wells, we
use the solutions proposed by Pratikno et al. (2003). The model parameters of interest for this solution are:
● Permeability (k),
● Fracture half-length (xf),
● Fracture conductivity (Fc),
● Drainage area (A),
● Skin factor (s),
For horizontal wells with multiple transverse fractures, we use the models proposed by van Kruysdijk and Dullaert (1989)
and Larsen and Hegre (1994). The model parameters of interest for these solutions are:
● Permeability (k),
● Fracture half-length (xf),
● Fracture conductivity (Fc),
● Drainage area (A),
● Well length (Lw),
● Number of fractures (nf),
● Skin factor (s),
In this work we focus on correlations based on permeability and fracture half-length. Other possible combinations are
possible, but we will not discuss the other possibilities as we do not have any strong conclusions.

Correlation of Rate-time Model Parameters versus Model Based Production Analysis Results
This section attempts to correlate Eq. 5 parameters with model-based production analysis results. The ultimate objective of
such correlation is to estimate well/reservoir properties such as permeability from rate-time model parameters (e.g., n, D̂i ,
etc.). By intuition we can state that such possible correlation requires a large sample (producing wells in a particular field)
and high quality data. In fact our results indicate that this perception is correct.
In this work we have performed the following rate-time analysis and model-based analysis:
z Holly Branch Field: 13 wells.
z Shale Gas Field A: 6 wells.
z Shale Gas Field B: 9 wells.
z Shale Gas Field C: 8 wells.

The results of the rate-time and production analysis for these fields can be found in Ilk (2010). It is worth to note that
production analysis of Holly Branch Field utilizes the "finite conductivity" fracture model for a vertical well. On the other
hand, production analysis for all of the shale gas fields employs the horizontal well with multiple transverse fractures solution
(Larsen and Hegre 1994).
4 D. Ilk, J.A. Rushing, and T.A. Blasingame SPE 140556

We first attempt to obtain correlations by cross-plotting a variety of combinations of Eq. 5 parameters versus the fractured
well model variables. These cross-plots suggest that two parametric relations can be used as correlations from our results.
First, permeability (k) can be correlated with Eq. 5 parameters; the proposed correlation is given as:
) ) )
)
k = a n b Dˆ i c qˆ i d ....................................................................................................................................................... (8)

It is noted that the parameters in Eq. 8 vary for each field. We provide the correlation plots of model based permeability
values versus calculated permeability values by Eq. 8 for each field in Figs. 1-4. It is worth to mention that the best
correlation is obtained in Holly Branch Field, where the number of analyzed wells is the most and the Shale Gas Field B
exhibits the worst correlation as the data quality is relatively lower.

Fig. 1 — Comparison of permeability calculated using the permeability correlation versus the permeability obtained using
"model-based" production analysis — Holly Branch Field.
SPE 140556 Integration of Production Analysis and Rate-time Analysis via Parametric Correlations 5

Fig. 2 — Comparison of permeability calculated using the permeability correlation versus the permeability obtained using
"model-based" production analysis — Shale Gas Field A.
6 D. Ilk, J.A. Rushing, and T.A. Blasingame SPE 140556

Fig. 3 — Comparison of permeability calculated using the permeability correlation versus the permeability obtained using
"model-based" production analysis — Shale Gas Field B.
SPE 140556 Integration of Production Analysis and Rate-time Analysis via Parametric Correlations 7

Fig. 4 — Comparison of permeability calculated using the permeability correlation versus the permeability obtained using
"model-based" production analysis — Shale Gas Field C.
8 D. Ilk, J.A. Rushing, and T.A. Blasingame SPE 140556

Next, we develop the "permeability -fracture half-length" (k-xf) correlation. We correlate the permeability-fracture half-
length product versus the n-parameter in Eq. 5. This correlation is given as:

k x f = αˆ exp[ βˆ n] ..................................................................................................................................................... (9)

Again we would like to remind that the parameters in Eq. 9 vary for each field. Eq. 9 is a simple, yet promising correlation.
We present the correlation plots for each field in Figs. 5-8. Our results indicate that best correlation is once again obtained in
Holly Branch Field and correlation plot of the Shale Gas Field B shows the most scatter. These observations are in accord
with our statement in the beginning on the sample size and data quality. We strongly believe more improved correlations can
be obtained if we add more samples and have high quality data for rate-time and production analysis. While, our efforts in
this work to establish correlations to estimate well/reservoir properties from rate-time relation model parameters are
inconclusive, we believe that this effort could be promising to obtain predictive parametric models based on rate-time
analysis relations.

Fig. 5 — Comparison of k-xf calculated using the k-xf correlation versus the k-xf obtained using "model-based" production
analysis — Holly Branch Field.
SPE 140556 Integration of Production Analysis and Rate-time Analysis via Parametric Correlations 9

Fig. 6 — Comparison of k-xf calculated using the k-xf correlation versus the k-xf obtained using "model-based" production
analysis — Shale Gas Field A.
10 D. Ilk, J.A. Rushing, and T.A. Blasingame SPE 140556

Fig. 7 — Comparison of k-xf calculated using the k-xf correlation versus the k-xf obtained using "model-based" production
analysis — Shale Gas Field B.
SPE 140556 Integration of Production Analysis and Rate-time Analysis via Parametric Correlations 11

Fig. 8 — Comparison of k-xf calculated using the k-xf correlation versus the k-xf obtained using "model-based" production
analysis — Shale Gas Field C.
12 D. Ilk, J.A. Rushing, and T.A. Blasingame SPE 140556

Summary and Conclusions


Summary: In general this work attempts to relate rate-time decline relations with model-based analysis results. Specifically,
we try to establish parametric correlations between model parameters of rate-time decline relations and semi-
analytical/analytical solutions. For this purpose we have evaluated production data of a tight gas field and three different
shale gas fields. We present two relations correlating permeability and fracture half-length with stretched exponential
(power-law exponential) model parameters.
Conclusions:
We state the following conclusions based on this work:
1. We have demonstrated that it is possible to correlate the rate-time model parameters with model-based production
analysis results. To this end we present two correlations to correlate permeability and permeability-fracture half-
length versus rate-time model parameters. Based on our results we conclude that more sample size and improved
data quality will yield improved correlations.
2. Although not presented in this work, we have also attempted to establish other correlations (e.g., EUR vs k and EUR
vs xf, etc.). These correlations are possible, however the data quantity considered in this work does not let us derive
strong conclusions.
3. This work is still in progress and our future efforts will mainly concentrate on improving the correlations presented
in this work and also establishing other correlations — particularly, correlating EUR from rate-time decline relations
with model-based analysis parameters.

Acknowledgements
This work was supported by RPSEA (Contract No. 07122-23) through the Ultra-Deepwater and Unconventional Natural Gas
and Other Petroleum Resources Research and Development Program as authorized by the US Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of
2005.

Nomenclature
Variables
)
a = Model parameter (Eq. 8), (md-D2/MSCF)
A = Drainage area, ft2
b = Arps' decline exponent, dimensionless
b̂ = Rate-time equation model parameter (Eq. 5 and Eq. 7), dimensionless
)
b = Model parameter (Eq. 8), dimensionless
)
c = Model parameter (Eq. 8), dimensionless
)
d = Model parameter (Eq. 8), dimensionless
D = Reciprocal of loss ratio, D-1
D1 = Model parameter (Eq. 3), D-1
D∞ = Rate-time equations model parameter, D-1
D̂i = Rate-time equations model parameter, D-1
EUR = Estimate of ultimate recovery, BSCF
Fc = Fracture conductivity, md-ft
k = Formation permeability, md
Lw = Horizontal well length, ft
n = Time exponent for Eq. 5 and Eq. 7, dimensionless
nf = Number of transverse hydraulic fractures intersecting the horizontal wellbore
q = Production rate, MSCF/D or STB/D
q̂i = Eq. 5 and Eq. 7 model parameter, MSCF/D or MSCF/Month in Eq. 6
s = Skin factor, dimensionless
t = Production time, days
xf = Fracture half-length, ft
SPE 140556 Integration of Production Analysis and Rate-time Analysis via Parametric Correlations 13

Greek Symbols
α̂ = Model parameter (Eq. 9), dimensionless
β̂ = Model parameter (Eq. 9), dimensionless
τ = Characteristic time parameter in Eq. 6, months

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