Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Sulphur dioxide emissions Rachel Carson’s book Silent UNEP: United Nations
from an industrial plant in Spring Environmental Programme
Donora
Severe smog episodes in Earth Day: 22nd April Antarctic Treaty System
New York city and London
Whaling and over fishing Earth from space - the first Rio Earth Summit and Rio
images from NASA +20
Chernobyl Catastrophe
❖ Background information
➢ Nuclear accident in Power Plant
➢ 26th April 1986
➢ In the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR)
❖ The accident
➢ In 1990 a scale for assessing nuclear accidents was introduced to the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
➢ Referred to as The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)
➢ To help governments adhere to the necessary safety precautions in the event
of a nuclear accident
➢ 1 of the 2 nuclear accidents that has achieved the highest score of 7 on the
scale (indicative of a major incident)
■ Major release of radioactive material
● Significant health and environmental implications
➢ Caused by a power surge during testing, that set off a steam explosion and
fire
➢ Released much of the core material into atmosphere, which spread over
Western USSR and Europe
❖ Facts and figures
➢ Death toll
➢ Estimates vary between 31 and 56 for immediate death
➢ Over 4,000 caused by cancers
➢ Incidents of cancer in the immediate area are 2 to 5 times higher than global
average
➢ 2 towns abandoned - Chernobyl and Pripyat
➢ 30 km exclusion zone around the reactor, which is still in pace today
➢ Contamination impacted around 17 million people
➢ Across Europe, large areas of vegetation of all types had to be cleared and
buried and many food crops had to be checked for radioactivity
➢ Producers were banned from selling fish and livestock, as well as livestock
products such as milk and eggs
➢ Many animals were found to have reduced brain size and increased incidence
of physical abnormalities
➢ Invertebrate populations decreased
➢ Incidence of Down syndrome in West Berlin peaked nine months after
incident
❖ Reactions and impacts
➢ The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in cooperation with the EU,
the US, and Ukraine set up Shelter Implementation Plan and the Chernobyl
Shelter fund. Aimed to make the old reactor and areas around power plant
safe again
➢ The UN Development Programme initiated the Chernobyl Recovery and
Development Programme. Aimed to support the Ukraine government deal
with the long-lasting effects of the catastrophe
➢ The International Project on the Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident was
set up to establish the causes of the continuing health problems in the region
➢ Global fundamental change in the approach to industrial safety standards
➢ International organisations and national governments have increased the
regulatory procedures for nuclear power
■ IAEA and Euratom have instigated new safety procedures and better
training for workers
■ The International Commision on Radiological Protection and World
Health Organisation are investigating the health aspects of the
incident
➢ Italy and Germany started phasing out nuclear power plants
➢ Germany created a ministerial post specifically to oversea reactor safety
What is an Environmental System Value
❖ Set of paradigms that shapes the perception of
➢ Environmental threats
➢ How they may impact the environment
➢ Whether or not that matters
❖ Places value on the environment
➢ The goods and services the environment provides: its aesthetic importance,
the reactional provision it offers or resource it supplies
➢ Intrinsic value: the idea that something can be of value in and of itself and not
because it is of any use to humanity
❖ Can be applied to a range of scales
➢ May be held by an individual
➢ By a group of individuals (religions, companies), governments,
intergovernmental bodies
■ Such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
■ Or non-governmental organisations like the World Wildlife Fund
(WWF)
● Vary over time
● Will depend on individual circumstances, surrounding culture,
traditional attitudes and practices and a myriad of other
influences
How are environmental values a system?
❖ System
➢ Simplified way of visualising a complex set of parts and their interconnections
➢ Inputs Processes Outputs
Inputs
❖ Everything around us affects our opinions
➢ We grow up with an associated culture
■ Inherent attitudes and beliefs
➢ Aboriginal people
■ Holistic approach to life
■ Believe that humans are part of nature
■ Respect for natural environment
➢ Religious groups
■ Define human place in nature and how to treat non-human beings
● E.g: in Islam, Muslims should care for plants and animals
➢ Friends and family
■ Determines your religion
■ Impact on what you access on the media, education and political
learnings
■ Interests and views of parents
● Adopting their values
➢ Political parties
■ Environmental agendas
■ Definite green policies or not
■ Governments changing to renewable energy sources
➢ Education
■ Another set of information
● Formulate our own opinions
■ Scientific slant
● Understanding of environmental systems and interconnection
between humans and nature
■ Different attitudes
● Towards environment than one where technology and the
economy are seen as more important
➢ Media
■ Tv, magazines and books
■ Formulate own opinions and values
➢ Own personality
■ Inherently more caring
■ Self sufficient
● More independent
● Less in need of saving environment
Processes
❖ Taking in all the knowledge and evaluating it
➢ To make an informed decision on whether we accept or reject ideas
➢ Cost benefit analysis
■ Framework where relative costs and benefits can be balanced
● E.g: cutting carbon emissions benefits, or cost to walk or cycle
Outputs
❖ Processed information
➢ Answers available, choices and decisions made, perspectives and viewpoints
formed
❖ Intrinsic value
➢ Instrumental
■ Something valued because it is a means to an end.
● E.g: natural resources such as gold, diamonds, fossil fuels
➢ Intrinsic
■ Something valued because its there, cannot be sold in return for
anything else
● E.g: biodiversity, most of us are aware that if that goes we are
in dire straits
Environmental Value Systems
Anthropocentrism
People-centred approach. People manage
the environment themselves. Help of
independent regulatory authorities.
Population control and resource
management.
Environmental managers
Mainly anthropocentric, with some
technocentric elements. Natural resources
and human population need to be
managed.
Technocentrism Cornucopians
Will keep pace with and provide solutions. Development. Technology will solve any
Emphasis on the use of scientific analysis problems that arise.
and prediction to understand and control
natural processes. Alternative resources.
Ecocentrism
❖ Intrinsic value to natural resources and natural systems that spiritual, social and
environmental dimensions are all integrated.
❖ Minimal disturbances of natural processes
❖ biorights of species and landscapes must be respected
❖ Humans are part of nature rather that in control of it
➢ Form a global citizenship
➢ Sustainable for the earth
➢ Work with the natural environment to solve problems
➢ Everyone has the capacity and opportunity to participate in decision-making
for the good of the community and the environment
➢ Economy based on the maintenance of natural capital
■ Limited resources and growth needs to be controlled
■ Self-imposed restraint on the use of resources
● Require lifestyle changes away from non-renewable products
■ Exploitation of resources must be sustainable so large-scale
technology is avoided
❖ Deep ecologists
➢ Nature should be left alone
➢ Stop all development
■ Comes at too high a price to nature
● Biorights
● Living environment has the same right to flourish as humanity
➢ Concerned about impacts of humans on ecosphere
■ Nature has an intrinsic value linked to human morality
❖ Self-reliance soft ecologists
➢ Between ecocentrism and anthropocentrism
➢ There is room for development
■ On a local community scale
● Personal and communal involvement
❖ Case study: Resource Exploitation - The ecocentric take on fossil fuel exploitation
➢ Ecocentric approach on the use of fossil fuels
■ Support the use of small-scale technology on a local level
■ Reduce or stop all reliance on them
● Non-renewable
● Sustainability is impossible
➢ Exploitation leads to significant environmental damage and habitat
destruction
■ Such destruction has moral and spiritual implications
■ Contribute to global warming
● Add to the disruption of nature
➢ Fossil fuel exploitation is unacceptable, as it has been carried out by large-
scale corporation or governments
■ Give a false sense of security
■ Detracts from investment in alternative sources of energy
❖ Case study: The Kalahari Bushmen as ecocentrics
➢ Nomadics living in Kalahari Desert in Botswana and Namibia
■ Interdependent kinship system between small mobile foraging groups
■ Egalitarian society (all people are equal) decisions are made by
consensus with men and women as equals
■ Men are skilled at hunting and tracking, follow migrating herds and
use traditional weapons such as poisonous bow and arrow
■ Women have deep knowledge on berries and nuts, they gather for
consumption by the group
■ Make the most of all natural resources
● Ostrich eggs are eaten
● Empty shells used to gather water
● Consume up to 104 species of insects, such as beetles,
moths, termites
■ 2, 000 year old rock paintings depict their appreciation of nature
■ No concept of land ownership
■ Live in simple stick huts, wear simple clothing derived from nature,
and tools and equipment are made from natural products
Anthropocentrism
❖ “To remain unaware of the limits of human nature, the significance of biological
processes underlying human behaviour, and the deeper meaning of long-term
genetic evolution” - Edward O. Wilson
❖ Many see as a balanced and sensible option
❖ Criticisms for environmentalists: Dave Foreman and Christopher Manes suggest that
it is “underlying reasons why humanity dominates and sees the need to develop”
most of the earth
❖ Much of the discussion centres on the Judeo-Christian value system
➢ Believed that God gave humans the planet as a gift
❖ Native Indian
➢ “We do not inherit this planet from our ancestors, we borrow it from our
children”
❖ Human-centred worldview
❖ Believes nature is not there because it has any intrinsic value, but because we can
use all of its natural resources for our benefit
❖ Humans are environmental managers of sustainable global systems
❖ Economic growth and resource exploitation are acceptable as long as they are
regulated by independent authorities
❖ Legal agreements are needed to maintain environmental quality and enforce
compensation agreements
❖ Elected government representatives
➢ Appraise new projects
➢ Encourages discussion
➢ In search for consensus among interested parties
➢ Mixed of technocentric and ecocentric
➢ Make decisions based on human health and well-being
❖ Case study: Modern Western Worldview Environmental managers
➢ Human life is seen to have intrinsic value
■ Other things are there for the benefit of humankind
➢ Based on the book of Genesis
➢ Resources are freely exploited for economic development
➢ Thailand
■ Population policies to bring birth rates down
➢ Sweden
■ Try and increase birth rates
➢ Independent authorities
■ Negotiate agreements to benefit mankind
■ UN overseas any agreements concerning issues from pollution to
human right
➢ Governments
■ Pushing for sustainability in the shape of increased efficiency of
technology, reduced deforestation, reforestation, recycling campaigns,
pollution reduction, measures, national parks and conservation areas
Technocentrism
❖ “Technology is how we create wealth, how we cure disease, how we build an
environment that’s sustainable and also gives people the capacity to pull more out of
this world and still leave it better than when they found it” - Dean Kamen
❖ Technocentric value system
➢ Absolute faith in technology and industry
➢ Natural processes need to be understood
■ So they can be controlled and replaced by technology if necessary
❖ Do not see environmental issues as problems to be solved
➢ Opportunities for science to advance and industry to move forwards and
increase
➢ Provide solutions even if we push natural systems beyond normal boundaries
➢ Keep pace with environmental issues
➢ Natural resources have no intrinsic value
■ For human benefit
❖ Emphasise the importance of market and economic growth
➢ Based on technological expertise, scientific analysis and predictions
■ Foundation for policy decisions
❖ Humans are resourceful
➢ Ability to control environment and find solutions
➢ Optimistic about the state of the world
➢ Believe they can overcome all obstacles
➢ Improve life for humans
➢ Global problems (pollution, climate change and resources depletion)
■ Solved by science and technology
❖ Case study: Resource exploitation - Technocentrics view on fossil fuels
➢ All resources can be exploited for human benefit
➢ Propose continued use of fossil fuels
➢ Technology can find solutions to problems that arise from this
■ Technology cleans up oil spills
➢ Technology will find alternatives if fossil fuels were depleted
➢ Currently an abundant supply of fossil fuels
■ Technology to extract it
➢ Developing technology to access previously inaccessible oil and natural gas,
such as fracking
➢ Current lifestyles depend on fossil fuels
■ Transport, power and commodities
➢ Countries with fossil fuels have the potential to benefit economically
■ Development
➢ Oil industry is a significant global employer
➢ Necessity to continue using fossil fuels until technology improves the
efficiency of renewable energy sources
➢ Natural gas
■ Cost effective source of energy
➢ Developing technology can reduce 𝐶𝑂2 emissions
1.2 Systems & Models
The Big Picture
❖ Systems are central
➢ Systems approach
➢ May be open or closed, social or environmental or range from minute to
global
❖ Difference between the stores of energy and matter
➢ Energy flows into then out of the system
➢ Matter cycles around and around
❖ Models
➢ Understand and predict the real world
➢ Simplify real world interactions
➢ Explain complex ideas or hypotheses
❖ Systems
➢ Type of model
➢ Climate, biochemical cycles, soil profiles
What is a system?
❖ Definition
➢ A set of interrelated parts and the connection between them that unites them
to form a complex whole and produces emergent properties
❖ Approach
➢ Allows us to visualize a complex set of interactions
➢ Atmosphere broken down into its constituent parts
■ Better understanding of the system
■ Better at weather prediction in short term
❖ Consists of
➢ A number of parts that interact with each other and the surrounding
environment
➢ Interaction produces emergent properties of the system
➢ More than its constituent parts and possesses characteristics that individual
elements do not
■ Most living things are composed of nonliving chemicals (carbon,
hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus and sulphur)
● Although these chemicals are non living, when combined in a
system with the right interactions the emergent property is life
❖ Boundaries
➢ Space and time
➢ Spatially
■ Separate from wider environment which it interacts
➢ Temporally
■ Changes through time
■ May disappear entirely
● Living organisms do not live forever and the system ceases to
exist when the organism dies; component parts carry on
Components of The System
❖ May be ecological
➢ Pond in your garden, local forest or woodland or Amazon rainforest
❖ May be social
➢ Environmental value systems
■ Inputs (Systems themselves)
● Elements that go into the system
● May be physical things (water entering an ecosystem, solar
energy for photosynthesis or cultural behaviours entering EVS)
◆ Religion
◆ Culture
◆ Education
■ Processes
● Ecosystem
◆ Transform chemical energy into heat during respiration
● Social system
◆ Education
➢ Process of teaching transfers information from
teacher to student
■ Outputs
● Flows of matter and energy that leave the system
◆ E.g: Animals eat food
➢ Digestive system processes it to release energy
for life processes
➢ Output is heat and waste
◆ E.g: Social systems often have policies as their outputs
Types of Systems
❖ Open Systems
➢ Exchanges matter and energy with its surroundings
➢ Most natural systems
■ E.g: Ecosystems, ponds and living organisms
➢ Social systems
➢ EVS have matter input
■ Humans and energy input (flow of ideas)
■ Inputs and outputs of matter and energy
Inputs Outputs
Matter
Water: Water:
rainfall/rivers/overland/flow/infiltr evaporation/rivers/overland/flow/
ation percolation
Soil Sediment
Organisms Organisms
Vegetation Vegetation
Minerals Minerals
Energy
Sources of pollution
❖ Point source pollution: single identifiable source (e.g: from wastewater treatment
plant)
➢ Easier to monitor & control
❖ Non-point source pollution: from diffuse sources
➢ Difficult to monitor & control
Types of pollution
❖ Organic (is or was living) / inorganic matter (non-living)
❖ Persistent (don’t breakdown easily, insoluble in water, soluble in fat: DDT, pesticides)
/ biodegradable (substances that will breakdown/decompose from microorganisms)
❖ Acute (occurs suddenly & over short period) / chronic (persistent & long-term)
❖ Primary (released into environment directly from source in the form they are
produced: CO2 from car exhausts) / secondary (form when primary p’s react w/
environment & other pollutants, more toxic: ozone, acid deposition)
❖ Smell, visual, biological agents (invasive species), energy pollution (light, sound,
thermal)
❖ Air, water, land, light (a lot of lighting caused by street lamps can have detrimental
effects on timing of biological activities, disrupts creatures navigation, can interfere w/
sleep cycles), noise, thermal (changes temperature in area: from water or air)
DDT
❖ First synthesized in 1874
❖ Colourless, tasteless, odourless insecticide in 1939
❖ Effective in controlling malaria & typhus in WWII
❖ Once sprayed, absorbed by soil
❖ Not broken down, makes way through food chain, becomes more concentrated
❖ Eradicated malaria in US & Europe by 1950s
❖ Dropped infection rates in Indonesia from 25% to 1%
❖ Environmentalists argue DDT should be banned, humanitarians argue ban caused
death of millions
❖ Banned in 1972
❖ 2004: 170 countries ratified Stockholm Convention, restricted use of DDT in vector
control
Component Parts
❖ Ecosystem: community of interdependent organisms & physical environment they
interact with
➢ Made up of biotic (organisms) & abiotic components (physical environment)
❖ Biotic components: producers, consumers, decomposers
Species
❖ Group of organisms w/ common characteristics that interbreed to produce offspring
Populations
❖ Group of individuals of same species living in same area at same time
Abiotic components
❖ Temperature, sunlight, water, pH, salinity
Niche
❖ The role an organism plays & the position it hold in the environment
❖ Includes all the interactions the organism has w/ the abiotic & biotic environment
❖ Smallest unit of habitat
❖ How organism survives & reproduces
❖ Fundamental niche: all organisms have a tolerance range for abiotic factors in their
environment. Area an organism could live if there was no competition
❖ Realised niche: part of fundamental niche that the species occupies, defined by
competition
Interactions
❖ Organisms may interact w/ each other or w/ abiotic environment
❖ S- & J-shaped curves summarises consequences of interaction w/ abiotic
environment
❖ Interactions between species: regulate population size & impact balance of food web
➢ Mutualism: benefits both individuals
➢ Predation: benefits 1
Predation
❖ Where 1 organism (predator) hunts & kills prey to provide it w/ energy for survival &
reproduction
❖ Evolutionary: predator (sharp teeth, claws, speed, venom) / prey (speed, camouflage,
toxicity)
❖ Prey higher than predator due to laws of thermodynamics & loss of energy
Herbivory
❖ Plants evolve defense mechanisms: structural/mechanical/chemical
❖ Herbivores: develop coping mechanisms (neutralising toxins)
Parasitism
❖ When an organ (parasite) takes nutrients from host
❖ Ectoparasites: live outside host (tick & flea)
❖ Endoparasites: live inside host (tapeworms)
Mutualism
❖ Increase in one, increases population of other
❖ Bacteria in cows intestines, corals & algae
Disease
❖ Departure from normal state of functioning of living organism
❖ Result of environmental agents, infective agents, genetic defects
Competition
❖ For source in limited supply (water, food, territory, mates, habitat)
❖ Intraspecific competition: members of same species compete
❖ Interspecific competition: members of different species compete
➢ More impact on species survival & population dynamics (extinction)
Producers
❖ Convert inorganic compounds into food
❖ Known as autotrophs or self-feeders
❖ Primary: majority plants - take nutrients from soil & use solar energy to change light
energy into chemical energy
Consumers
❖ Heterotrophs (other-feeders)
❖ Herbivores, carnivores, omnivores
Ecosystem basics
❖ Photosynthesis & respiration viewed as systems w/ inputs, processes & outputs
Photosynthesis
❖ Plants absorbs water, CO2 & light energy (using protein within chlorophyll within
chloroplasts) to make chemical energy (O2 & glucose)
Respiration
❖ Process of photosynthesis reversed
Trophic levels
❖ Position of organism in food chain
Ecological pyramids
❖ Show information of organisms at trophic level
❖ Primary at bottom: flow of energy up through pyramid
➢ Length of bar proportional to what it is showing: biomass/energy
Pyramid of numbers
❖ May not be pyramid shaped
❖ Ignores biomass of organism & amount of energy it has stored in that biomass
❖ Not always pyramid shaped
❖ Temperate woodland:
❖ Advantages
➢ Non-destructive method of data collection
➢ Good for comparing ecosystems over time
❖ Disadvantages
➢ All organisms included regardless of their size
➢ Numbers so big, hard to represent
➢ Does not allow for juvenile forms of species (look differently)
Pyramid of biomass
❖ Standing crop: mass at particular time
❖ Biomass: total amount of living matter in given area (g m–2)
❖ Not always pyramid shaped
❖ Measured as dry weight (eliminates variation in water) - destructive data collection
❖ Advantages
➢ Overcomes problems of counting
❖ Disadvantages
➢ Measuring of whole organisms - even parts that don’t contribute energy to
feeding processes
➢ Inaccuracy, seasonal variation
Pyramids of productivity/energy
❖ Rate of flow of biomass or energy over period of time
❖ Shows turnover of biomass at each trophic level
❖ Bars represent amount of energy generated & available as food for next trophic level
❖ Jm-2 yr-1
❖ Always pyramid shaped
❖ Advantages
➢ Most accurate, show actual energy & rate of production over time
➢ Ecosystems can be compared
➢ Solar input can be added
❖ Disadvantages
➢ Difficult to collect data
➢ Species difficult to assign to trophic levels
Impact of energy efficiencies
❖ 10% rule limits food chain length, increases concentration of toxins & makes predator
vulnerable to extinction
Length of food chains
❖ Terrestrial: 4-5
❖ Aquatic: 7
➢ Start w/ smaller organisms, less biomass taken from skeletal formation - less
waste & longer food chains
➢ Less light go through primary producers (absorbed or reflected by water)
Mortality
❖ crude death rate (CDR)
➢ the number of deaths/1000/year – that is how many people die each year for
every thousand people in the population
➢ mean global CDR
■ approximately 7.89/1000/year
➢ most developed countries
■ do not have the lowest death rates
➢ Least developed countries
■ highest rates
■ E.g: Africa
(Limits to growth)
❖ Anti-Malthusian theories
➢ Ester Boserup
■ Economist
■ Argued that advances in agriculture had increased food production faster
than imagined
● Green revolution (Stockholm convention)
■ Globally there is enough food to feed everyone with some surplus
■ famine is still a problem locally due to poor distribution networks
➢ Plenty of evidence support this view
■ number of agricultural revolutions
● Which increase our food production
■ Medical advances
● improve life expectancy
● Improve life quality
● introduction of reliable contraception
◆ reducing population growth
■ Technological advances
● solutions to our power requirements
◆ Renewable energy
■ Industrial advances
● Allow industries to keep in pace with demand
● concave sides
● large drop between 0-5 and
6-10 year age groups
● child mortality
● high mortality rates
● stable population
● high birth rates balanced by
high death rates
● straighter sides
● low mortality
● expanding rapidly
● narrower at base
● falling birth rate
● steady decrease in fertility
between 1980 to 2000
● Bars: progressively smaller-less
children born
● large number of adults in
reproductive age (15–34 y/o)
○ growing population
● taller and wider at the top
○ higher life expectancy
○ lower death rates
❖ Demographic transition model (DTM)
➢ based on observation (empirical) of demographic changes
■ over previous 200 years
■ Developed in 1920’s
➢ 5 stages
■ Characterized by
● crude birth rates (CBR)
● crude death rates (CDR)
● natural increase rates (NIR)
➢ Stage 1: Pre industrial society
■ High CBR and CDR
● Cancel each other out
■ Very low to 0 NIR
■ high death rates
● Caused by natural events
◆ Famine
◆ Disease
■ High birth rates
● lack of awareness
● children contribute to family income
◆ helped with chores
➢ Stage 2: Urbanizing/ Industrializing
■ High CBR
■ death rates drop quickly
● Improved food production
◆ Mechanization
◆ Green revolution
● food storage improvements
● understanding of mechanisms of the spread of disease
◆ link between disease, water supply and poor sanitation
● discovery of penicillin and vaccination
◆ treat infection
◆ prevent disease
● access to basic health care and education
■ significant increase in the NIR
● rapidly expanding population
➢ Stage 3: Industrial
■ death rates continue to fall
■ birth rates start declining
● Availability of contraceptives
● understanding of family planning
● improvement in status and education of women
● ban on child labour
● investment in children’s education
● financial burden
■ highest NIR
■ large gap between CBR and CDR
➢ Stage 4: Post industrial
■ birth rates low
■ death rates low
■ NIR low
● However, population is large having gone through period of high
growth
➢ Stage 5: Post industrial
■ Death rates exceed birth rates
● due to increase in lifestyle diseases
◆ e.g. low exercise and high levels of obesity causing
cardiovascular diseases
■ aging population ensues
● high BR in stages 1 and 2 are now into old age
■ few workers to support growing aged population
● falling birth rates of stage three
➢ Criticisms of DTM
■ MEDC’s
● At the end of the model
● Being observed to develop model further
■ LEDC’s
● May not follow the same pattern
◆ MEDC based
◆ relationship between economic development and
population growth is not the same in LEDCs
◆ going through the stages much faster due to medical
advances (contraception & education)
◆ Does not take into account natural disasters or epidemics
(AIDS & wars)
◆ Does not take into account government policies to
manage population
◆ Does not take into account migration
◆ Cultural and religious factors influence high BR so they
are stuck in stage 2
Development policies
❖ Influence fertility and mortality
❖ Impacts directly or indirectly human population dynamics