Thailand Sector Update

9 May 2018 Consumer Cyclical | Retailing And Leisure & Entertainment

Overweight (Maintained)
Consumer And Hospitality
Stocks Covered: 10
Splashy Spending Ratings (Buy/Neutral/Sell): 8/0/2
Last 12m Earnings Revision Trend: Positive
We are OVERWEIGHT on consumer and hospitality. Our Top Picks are Berli Top Picks Target Price
Jucker and Central Pattana (retail), and Erawan and Minor (hospitality). Our Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – BUY THB73.00
channel checks during Songkran saw better spending vs 2017, which may Central Pattana (CPN TB) – BUY THB95.00
help support 2Q consumption. Apart from robust tourism sentiment in Minor International (MINT TB) – BUY THB50.00
Bangkok and the major cities, we expect solid exports and possible farm Erawan (ERW TB) – BUY THB10.00
income recovery ahead – this may spur upcountry consumption and
eventually result in stronger 2H18 earnings momentum for the corporates. The Songkran water festival – Thailand’s traditional
New Year holiday
During Songkran (12-15 Apr), we ground checked various places in Bangkok
and its vicinity. The livelier atmosphere vs 2017 allowed hotels and airports to
post strong performances, but we believe convenience stores, retail malls and
restaurants (downtown, as well as in Greater Bangkok’s mid- to high-end
residential areas and major upcountry cities) – also benefited. Based on this, we
believe Songkran in 2018 is likely to generate up to THB132bn (+3.5% YoY) and
THB20bn (+20% YoY) in consumer spending and tourism income respectively.
Post Songkran, while we believe April’s latter half spending may be sluggish,
improved sentiment in 2Q18’s remaining months is likely. This is on rising
consumer confidence and a recovery in farm product prices that spur the Source: The Nation
upcountry economy. The 2018 World Cup (June-July) should also benefit staple
and sports retailers, and quick-service restaurants (QSRs). These factors may
Consumer spending and tourism receipts during the
partially offset a cooler-than-expected hot season and more frequent showers vs
Songkran period
2017, which can affect beverage, electrical appliances and home improvement
product sales, in our view. Despite 2Q being a historical low season for retailers 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
Total consumer spending (THBbn) 116.81 119.17 124.54 127.69 132.16
and hotels, we expect earnings to grow YoY. This is on retailers’ strong SSSG
% growth 2.4% 2.0% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5%
from 2017’s low base, hotelier’s revenue/available room (RevPar) growth post a
Total tourism income (THBbn) 11.52 14.52 15.16 16.59 19.82
room rate hike, and improving operating leverages.
% growth 3.6% 26.0% 4.4% 9.4% 19.5%
We expect the retailers we cover to deliver more impressive earnings in 2H18
Thai domestic visitors (mn trips) 2.00 2.16 2.26 2.69 3.01
vs 1H18, with aggregated FY18F SSSG turning towards a positive +2.8% YoY % growth -1.7% 8.0% 4.7% 18.8% 12.1%
(FY17: -1.9%) for the first time since being in the red in 2014. We believe Domestic tourism income (THBbn) 6.62 7.02 6.98 8.54 10.00
improving momentum in farm income is likely, while exports should remain % growth n.m. 6.0% -0.5% 22.3% 17.1%
strong. This is mainly for electronic components and autos, which are likely to International visitors (m) 0.34 0.47 0.50 0.47 0.53
see strong shipment in 3Q. These factors may help support consumption and % growth -50.1% 39.0% 5.3% -5.1% 12.8%
retailer earnings in 3Q18’s low season, before we enter the peak period, ie 4Q. Foreign tourism income (THBbn) 4.93 7.50 8.18 8.05 9.38
% growth -26.1% 52.0% 9.1% -1.6% 16.5%
We are confident that the tourism industry would remain an outstanding
contributor to Thailand’s economy in 2018 and 2019. This is as the sector Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand, University of the Thai
benefits from the ongoing influx of Chinese and Russian visitors, and local buzz Chamber of Commerce, RHB
on travel to Tier-2 cities post the Government’s tourism campaigns, which
included a tax break scheme. In 2018, we expect 38m foreign visitors (+7%) to
generate THB2trn in receipts (+10%), while local tourists are likely to undertake
163m trips (+7%) and post THB1trn (+9%) in total income. The hoteliers we
cover may enjoy RevPar growth by 4-9% this year. We also see extensions in
airport capacity, as a major growth support for Airports of Thailand (AoT) and the
country’s hospitality sector in the longer term.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We believe both sectors are to remain in good shape.
They are major growth drivers of economy (contributing an aggregated one-third
of GDP) and we expect them to book solid core profit growth of 21% (consumer)
and 18% (hospitality) this year. Based on the earnings prospects and TP upside,
our Top Picks are Berli Jucker and Central Pattana (consumer), and Erawan and
Minor International (Minor) (hospitality). We believe these stocks ought to
generate more favourable results in 2H18.
% Upside P/E (x) P/B (x) Yield (%)
Com pany Nam e Rating Price Target (Dow nside) Dec-18F Dec-18F Dec-18F
Berli Jucker BUY THB61.00 THB73.00 19.7 35.3 2.2 1.4
Central Pattana BUY THB77.25 THB95.00 23.0 28.0 5.0 1.4
Central Plaza Hotel BUY THB48.75 THB56.50 15.9 27.6 5.1 1.4
CP ALL BUY THB88.25 THB98.00 11.0 33.5 11.1 1.3
Minor International BUY THB39.75 THB50.00 25.8 28.7 3.3 1.2
Robinson Department Store BUY THB66.00 THB81.00 22.7 22.8 4.0 2.2 Analyst
The Eraw an BUY THB8.10 THB10.00 23.5 33.7 3.5 1.3 Vatcharut Vacharawongsith
The Platinum BUY THB8.15 THB10.30 26.4 26.0 2.5 2.4
Airports of Thailand TAKE PROFIT THB71.00 THB52.50 (26.1) 38.2 6.9 1.6
+66 2088 9736
Home Product Center TAKE PROFIT THB14.60 THB12.50 (14.4) 34.0 9.7 2.8 vatcharut.va@rhbgroup.com
Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

Splashy Spending
Ground checking on Songkran holidays
We made channel checks to key destinations for tourists and locals in greater Bangkok
during Songkran or Thai New Year holiday on 12-15 Apr. During these checks, we spoke
to staff at retail outlets, street vendors, and tenants in shopping malls.
The key feedback we received was that foreign visitor arrivals were clearly strong, while
local consumption seemed better than the same period last year. For the latter, this was
mainly in the capital and rather than the upcountry areas where tourism and industrial
provinces are gradually improving. However agricultural-related provinces remain weak in
tandem with farm product price momentum. We believe the Songkran holiday this year
was more lively than the previous year, which would be positive for Thai retailers and
QSRs’ SSSG during the period. Meanwhile, this would signal growth in hotel companies’
RevPar, based on the room rate hikes.

Convenience stores as the best stop on the way home

Thursday 12 Apr – road, rail, air transport. We started with ground checks at major
transport hubs in Bangkok to see the flow of upcountry Thais, who work in the capital,
heading back to their respective hometowns; and the Bangkok revellers, going upcountry
for long-weekend trips. Note that there are c.15m people living in Greater Bangkok
(including the five outskirt provinces: Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Samut
Sakhon, and Nakhon Pathom), of which c.28% (or 4.1m) are non-registered inhabitants in
the area.
Our first visit to the Bangkok railway station or Hua Lamphong, which was lively, with a big
crowd of people waiting for their departures in the late afternoon. The Bangkok bus
terminal, or Mo Chit, was also bustling, and heavily packed with travellers going to the
northern and north-eastern provinces. CP ALL’s 7-Eleven (CPALL TB, BUY, TP: THB98)
is the only private convenience store chain in the area, of around seven outlets. All of the
stores had set up temporary booths in front of them, preparing high-margin ready-to-eat
(RTE) food items, eg sausages, dim sum, pastries, and chilled mealboxes; while inside the
stores, travellers were busy looking for drinking water, snacks, and personal items.
Energy drinks were also popular among bus drivers and overnight motorists. On shelves,
we found the market leader, M-150, selling quite well. M-150 is carrying out aggressive
marketing campaigns to maintain its share leadership. The brand’s owner, Osotspa Co
Ltd, a century-old Thai consumer product conglomerate, has submitted a filing to go public
via an IPO, which we think would mean a stronger push for earnings performance in its bid
to attract investors. As such, we believe it may be a challenge for Carabao Group (CBG
TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB74.50) to maintain its local market share.
We believe 7-Eleven’s strength in RTE food and its expansive store network in Thailand
easily captures a large segment of society, especially with its stores and kiosks at
roadside outlets, gas stations, and public transport hubs.

Figure 1: Bangkok railway station remained crowded Figure 2: Upcountry passengers rushed to the Bangkok bus
terminal to return to their hometowns for Songkran

Source: RHB Source: RHB

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Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

Figure 3: Bangkok bus terminal platforms Figure 4: All seven 7-Eleven outlets at the Bangkok bus
terminal set up temporary kiosks to sell RTE meals

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Figure 5: 7-Eleven outlets at Bangkok bus terminal were Figure 6: A variety of Thai energy drinks – favourites of
packed with customers long-haul bus and car drivers

Source: RHB Source: RHB

We visited Airports Of Thailand’s (AOT TB, TAKE PROFIT, TP: THB52.50) Don Mueang
Airport (DMK) to observe passenger traffic flow in the evening, as it is the low-cost aviation
hub – which has become the main channel for domestic and air transport.
There was a handful of passengers at budget airlines’ check-in counters in the Terminal 2
(domestic), while we observed Chinese visitors pushing their luggage trolleys at the arrival
hall of Terminal 1 (International). QSRs upstairs were packed with passengers having
meals before their flight departures. A restaurant staff we spoke to said the outlets are
busy almost throughout the entire day, with Thai and Chinese-speaking passengers as
major patrons.

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Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

Figure 7: The international terminal at DMK is always busy Figure 8: Moderate passenger flow at DMK’s domestic
terminal

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Figure 9: QSRs and the food courts at DMK are doing well Figure 10: DMK’s domestic terminal was less crowded than
expected during the hours of 6-7pm

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Livelier “water splashing” celebrations than the past year

13 Apr marked the day of Songkran with festivities splashed all over the kingdom. It was
definitely livelier than 2017, when the country was under a mourning period, due to the
passing of the late King Bhumibhol Adulyadej. We began our ground checks at the world-
renowned tourist street of Khao San Road, and the shopping district of Ratchaprasong
and Siam Square, before moving to Silom Road – the capital’s central business district
(CBD) – in the evening.
Events along Khao San Road were extended to three days, from two days last year. The
area was packed with both Thais and foreigners, mainly from Chinese-speaking countries.
The police imposed stricter measures this year, including the prohibition of alcoholic
beverages at the three sites to avoid any untoward incidences. Meanwhile, street food
vendors were designated to set up stalls in small alleys next to the main street, which
limited customer visibility.
Convenience stores were therefore the one-stop location for revellers to take a break
before continuing the festivities. The best-selling items were drinking water, bread and
buns, as well as some RTE meals. QSRs located next to the site also benefitted from the
event. Our last stop at the nightlife venue of Rama IX Road and Royal City Avenue (RCA)
proved to be more fulfilling, with more than five electronic dance music (EDM) concerts
held in a single venue. These included the very popular S2O Songkran Music Festival,
which is an annual sold-out event, with tickets normally purchased by Thais and most
Asian nationals.

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Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

Figure 11: Throngs of revellers make their way through the Figure 12: In the thick of the action at Khao San Road
entrance of the festivities at Khao San Road

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Figure 13: Day and night activities along Silom Road, Figure 14: Central Pattana’s flagship CentralWorld mall also
Bangkok’s CBD hosted events

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Figure 15: People enjoying the festivities in a fun and safe Figure 16: RCA housed many music events in the same
manner around the Siam Square shopping area area, with both Thai and foreign guests

Source: RHB Source: RHB

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Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

Figure 17: Drinking water was a huge seller during Figure 18: Nearby QSRs also got the tailwind of the
Songkran festivities

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Downtown retailers were busy

14 Apr found us not being able to go anywhere except to the malls. It is typical for private
businesses, including small and medium enterprises (SMEs), small vendors, food stalls,
and traditional trade groceries, to shut down during Songkran for 5-7 days. As a result, it is
difficult for people to find meals or to buy necessities during that time.
Hence, modern retail outlets would be the best destination for anyone in Bangkok and the
upcountry looking to dine, shop, and/or socialise. In the city centre, Central Pattana’s
(CPN TB; BUY; TP: THB98.00) developments including CentralWorld and Central Plaza
Rama III were crowded with people, mainly families, queuing to dine at restaurants.
Shopping at supermarkets/hypermarkets and watching movies, which are popular
pastimes during the weekends among the Thais, still continued during the Songkran
holiday.

Figure 19: Many of street food vendors and traditional Figure 20: RTE meals at convenience stores were mostly
groceries were closed for Songkran out of stock during the Songkran holiday weekend

Source: RHB Source: RHB

During lunch time, we noticed that several traditional hotpot restaurants had expanded
their businesses by opening restaurant outlets in shopping malls. We believe this has
affected MK Restaurants’ (MK) (M TB, NR) outlets in some locations. One of them is Earw
Thai Suki, which has operated its standalone restaurants for more than 50 years and is
much older than MK. Its offers authentic Chinese hotpot and has a wider variety of ala
carte items on its menu compared to MK.
There used to be a long queue in front of MK hotpot outlets in Bangkok during peak hours
in the past. However, our channel checks at one of its outlets, found there was no queue.
Instead, the crowd was seen at the newly open Earw Thai Suki outlet, located on the
same floor as the MK restaurant.

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Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

The expansion of traditional hotpot restaurants into the shopping malls has compelled MK
to continuously introduce new menu items and promotional campaigns to attract
customers and boost its SSSG. Nonetheless, we believe MK would continue to remain as
the biggest hotpot brand, particularly in the upcountry, where dining alternatives are
limited.
Our channel checks at the Platinum Fashion Mall in Pratunam a key property of The
Platinum Group (PLAT TB, BUY, TP: THB10.30) revealed that it still busy with foreign
shoppers. This was despite around 20% of shops were closed for the holidays. The hotel
located above the mall – Novotel Bangkok Platinum Pratunam – was also fully-booked
during that period.
Apart from shopping malls, we also found convenience stores were doing well in terms of
RTE meals and beverages, as many items were off the shelves.

Figure 21: Cinemas were sill busy during Songkran Figure 22: CentralWorld shopping mall remained lively

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Figure 23: Foot traffic at Central Plaza Rama III shopping Figure 24: There was no queue at the MK Restaurant during
mall lunch time. Instead, crowds thronged at the newly-opened
traditional hotpot outlet

Source: RHB Source: RHB

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Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

Figure 25: Local and foreign shoppers still visited the Figure 26: Almost all seats were taken at the Platinum
Platinum Fashion Mall in Pratunam although c.20% of shops Fashion Mall’s food court
were closed for the holidays

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Mixed feelings at suburban malls

Sunday, 15 Apr – Some suburban retail malls experienced lower-than-expected traffic,
particularly in north Bangkok, where apart from residential areas, it mainly consists of
industrial estates and universities. Most of the upcountry workers and students would
normally return to their respective hometowns during Songkran.
A visit to Future Park Rangsit – the biggest mall in the north Bangkok, which belongs to
Future Park Leasehold Property Fund (FUTUREPF TB, NR), – saw low footfall, despite
having key tenants including Central Department Store and Berli Jucker’s (BJC TB, BUY,
TP: THB73.00) Big C Supercenter. The restaurants, however, were filled with Thais. Store
staff revealed that there was less activity due to the Songkran festivities.
Nonetheless, we also spent some time at several shopping malls in the west and east of
Bangkok, where mid- to high-end residential projects are located and expanding rapidly.
Central Pattana’s Central Plaza Salaya, Central Plaza WestGate, as well as Siam Future
Development’s (SF TB, NR) Mega Bang Na, saw strong foot traffic with packed parking
lots.
We expect foot traffic at upcountry retail stores to improve during this time, as families are
able to spend time together there. This may benefit Robinson’s (ROBINS TB, BUY, TP:
THB81.00) Robinson Lifestyle Center shopping malls, Big C hypermarkets, and Central
Pattana malls.

Figure 27: Future Park Rangsit, the biggest retail mall in Figure 28: Foot traffic at the supermarket and dining level of
north Bangkok, was less crowded than usual the mall

Source: RHB Source: RHB

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Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

Figure 29: Robinson’s department store at Future Park Figure 30: Big C hypermarket at Future Park Rangsit was
Rangsit quiet during Songkran

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Figure 31: Parking lots at Central Plaza Salaya in west Figure 32: View of the backstage of a Songkran event at
Bangkok were fully occupied Central Plaza Salaya. Water splashing activities were also
organised at key suburban retail malls

Source: RHB Source: RHB

Improving exports and farm to recover consumption and retail sales

We see Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index continuing to rally while retail sales also
improved since Nov 2017. Apart from the strengthening of the tourism industry, we believe
a possible recovery in major farm product price momentum (including crops) may help
improve Thailand’s upcountry economy.
Growing exports would remain strong, with the major shipment of electronic components
and automobile accounting for c.30% of the total USD-based export value, may achieve
record highs during 3Q18F. These factors would eventually benefit private consumption
this year. We believe that the spending atmosphere in Bangkok has returned, it is only a
matter of time before the upcountry follows suit.
In the short run, total consumer spending for the Songkran festivities in 2018 is expected
to expand 3.5% to THB132bn, according to academics. This may help support growth of
private consumption in the second quarter. We expect retailers’ average SSSG in 2Q18F
to return to a positive growth of c.3% YoY, from a very low base of -6.3% YoY, during the
same period last year. Meanwhile, 2H18F earnings momentum, in general, would be
stronger than 1H18, based on a high season effect.

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Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

2018 World Cup – a definite plus to the sectors

Without exception, Thais, like the global population, would have all eyes on the upcoming
live broadcasts of 2018 World Cup in Russia on 14 Jun-15 Jul. It would create demand for
consumption, which supports topline sales of food and beverage manufacturers, staple
retailers, sports retailers, and QSRs at the end of 2Q18 and early 3Q18.
We prefer Berli Jucker and CP All for retailers, Central Plaza Hotel – which owns the KFC
franchise (c.30% of total revenue), Minor International, as the country’s market leader for
pizza delivery and premium burgers (c.15% of total revenue), as well as Robinson for its
40% stake in Thailand’s biggest sports retailer, Supersports. Thai Beverage (THBEV SP,
BUY, TP: SGD1.12) may also perform well with its alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks
during that time.

Figure 33: Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index and Farm Figure 14: Thailand’s key consumption, retail, and export
Price Index have improved indices
Consumer confidence index Farm price index - RHS Consumer spending Private consumption index Retail sales index Exports
90 170 15%

160 12%
85
9%
150
80 6%
140
3%
75
130 0%
70
120 -3%

65 -6%
110
-9%
60 100
-12%
May-12
Sep-12

May-13
Sep-13

May-14
Sep-14

May-15
Sep-15

May-16
Sep-16

May-17
Sep-17
Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

2018F
1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18
Source: University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Thailand’s Office of Source: Bank of Thailand, Office of the National Economic and Social Development
Agricultural Economics, RHB Board (NESDB), RHB

Tourism is always the star

For hospitality sector, most of hotel rooms in Bangkok were fully booked by tourists during
Songkran, while major holiday destinations, including Chiang Mai, Pattaya, and Hua Hin,
were also crowded with Thais. The Government expects 0.53m international tourist
arrivals (+13% YoY) and c.3m trips made by Thais (+12% YoY), whilst generating more
than THB20bn cash (+14% YoY) during this period.
This is typically a low season for Thai tourism, which may slow down 2Q18F’s earnings
momentum of hotel operators from the previous quarter. However, we expect them to
enjoy stronger average room rate hike from the same period last year, which, in turn, may
eventually boost their RevPar, operating leverage, and eventually net profit YoY.

Figure 35: Total international tourist arrivals and receipts Figure 36: Domestic tourist numbers and income
Tourist arrivals (m) Foreign tourist income (THBbn) - RHS Domestic tourists (m trips) Domestic tourist income (THBbn) - RHS
180 1,116 1,200
45 2,500
41.0 1,043
40 38.0
957 1,000
35.4
2,000 160
35 32.5 870
29.9 803
30 800
26.7 701
24.8 1,500 140 661
25 22.4
589
19.2 600
20
15.9 1,000 483 171
13.814.514.614.1 120 163
15 403
11.711.5 153
10.110.810.0 145 400
10 500 134 139
132
5 100 118
109 200
0 0 101
2011

2018F
2019F
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

80 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F

Source: Thailand’s Tourism and Sports Ministry, RHB Source: Thailand’s Tourism and Sports Ministry, RHB

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 Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
9 May 2018

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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 Consumer And Hospitality Thailand Sector Update
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6. Affiliation between the Company and the main Shareholders.

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