Inference

An inference is a process of drawing conclusions based on the evidence.

Based on this premise… …you can infer:

Weather forecast says 80% chance of
thunderstorms
There are over 40 million volumes in the
university library
My throat is sore and my nose is running
Grapes are poisonous to all dogs
It’s a good idea to bring an umbrella
They probably have a copy of Plato’s Republic
in circulation
I have probably caught a cold
Grapes are poisonous for your dog

There are also bad inferences, or inferences that may appear persuasive that on further
inspection turn out to be misleading. For example:

Based on this premise… ….you should not infer… because:

Weather forecast says 80%
chance of thunderstorms
There are over 40 million
volumes in the university
library
My throat is sore and my nose
is running
Grapes are poisonous to all
dogs
There’s a 20% chance of no
rain at all
I will be able to check out a
copy of Plato’s Republic
I should take antibiotics
Dogs cannot eat household fruit provide your dog with vital
With an 80% chance of storms,
even if there are no storms there
will probably still be rain
The Republic is very widely
used, and there’s a decent
chance it will be checked out or
on reserve
Antibiotics should only be used
if you have a major illness, and
anyway they usually don’t work
on colds
Apples and bananas can
nutrition

The strength of your argument depends entirely on two things: the accuracy of your evidence,
and the strength of your inferences. If you have solid evidence and you draw valid inferences,
your argument will be complete.

There are two basic types of inference:

a. Deduction (or “deductive inference”) is an inference based on logical certainty. It usually

starts from a general principle and then infers something about specific cases.

“Grapes are poisonous to all dogs”

This allows you to infer that grapes are poisonous for your dog, too. If the premise is true
then the conclusion has to be true. There’s no other possibility. Notice, however, that this
doesn’t really tell you anything new: once you say “grapes are poisonous to all dogs,” you
already know that grapes are poisonous for your specific dog. Deduction has the advantage of
certainty, but it doesn’t generate new knowledge.

b. Induction (or “inductive inference”) is an inference based on probability. It usually starts

from specific information and then infers the more general principle.

“For the last two years, Amanda has woken up at 8am every day”

This allows you to infer that Amanda will probably wake up at 8am tomorrow, too. You
would probably be right, and it’s a reasonable inference but it’s not certain! Tomorrow could
be the first day that Amanda decides to sleep in. Despite this uncertainty, however, induction
does offer the possibility of predicting future events and creating new knowledge.

Questions:

Where Am I ?

1. It felt wonderful to be outside, even if only for a little while! All the swings were
already taken, and a group was playing softball on the diamond. Casey and I decided
use the monkey bars until the teacher called us.
2. The water felt so good on such a hot day. I heard the other children laughing and
yelling across the way. The concrete was wet from a group of teenagers splashing
each other in the corner. The lifeguard watched closely to keep children from running

Who Am I ?
1. I had finally gotten used to being weightless. It became a comfortable feeling. I
especially liked floating by the window to see the planet Earth below.
2. I often work in the early morning when the light is best. The canvas has had time to
dry over night. When I start, I make sure all of my brushes are clean.

Where Am I ?
1. A playground
2. A swimming pool
Who Am I ?
1. Am astronaut
2. An artist

Read each paragraph and answer the questions.

PART I
Sarah lit the candle as the room grew darker. The clock chimed eight times, so she
knew it would soon be bedtime. She hurried to find her chalkboard slate. She had
not finished her lessons yet. She knew the teacher would be disappointed in her if
she did not finish.
1. The paragraph takes place in: A. in the morning B. at night
Why do you think that?
________________________________________________________________
2. The paragraph takes place in: A. modern times B. historical times
Why do you think that?
________________________________________________________________

PART II
Claude walked slowly to the barn. He could hear the puppies as they cried for their
mother. It would be a long night if she did not come back soon.
1. Claude is:
A. male B. female
Why do you think that?
________________________________________________________________

2. Claude is:
A. a human B. an animal C. don’t know
Why do you think that?
________________________________________________________________
PART III
As I walked in the door, I knew there was trouble right away. The trash can was
turned over, and
papers were everywhere. The sofa cushions were on the floor. One of the pillows
had been ripped
open. Stuffing was all over the floor. As I looked around I saw Ringo in the corner.
He had a ball in his
mouth, ready to play.
1. What is Ringo?
_____________________________________________________________________
2. What happened to the trash can, the sofa cushions and the pillow?
_