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– pension reform
– public investment
– intergenerational accounting
CtY + St = Wt
O
Ct+1 = (1 + rt+1 )St
– St is saving
– Wt is wage income (exogenous labour supply)
– rt+1 is real interest rate
• consolidated (lifetime) budget constraint:
O
Ct+1
Wt = CtY +
1 + rt+1
Firms
• perfect competition, CRTS technology Yt = F (Kt , Lt ), Inada conditions
• hire Lt from young (at wage Wt ) and Kt from old (at rental rate rt + δ ):
Wt = FL (Kt , Lt )
rt + δ = FK (Kt , Lt )
Lt CtY = Wt Lt − St Lt
• Population growth:
Lt = L0 (1 + n)t , n > −1
• Intensive-form expression:
kt+1=kt
kt+1
B
kt+1=g(kt)
A !
! E0
! !
45N
k0 k* kt
Efficiency
• Ignoring transitional dynamics, what would an optimal steady-state look like?
• Optimal steady-state is such that the lifetime utility of a “representative” young agent
is maximized subject to the resource constraint:
µ ¶
Y Y 1
max Λ ≡ U (C ) + U (C O )
{C Y ,C O ,k} 1+ρ
O
C
subject to: f (k) − (n + δ)k = C Y +
1+n
U 0 (C O ) 1+ρ
0 Y
=
U (C ) 1+n
– FONC #2, production golden-rule:
f 0 (k) = n + δ
Old-age pensions
• to study a pension system we must add government taxes and transfers to the model
• budget identities:
CtY + St = Wt − Tt
O
Ct+1 = (1 + rt+1 )St + Zt+1
– PAYG system:
Lt−1 Zt = Lt Tt ⇔ Zt = (1 + n)Tt
Contribution Tt earns the right to receive (1 + n)Tt+1 when old, where n is the
biological interest rate
Fully-funded pensions
• striking neutrality property
• recall that lifetime budget constraint is:
O
Zt+1 Ct+1
W t − Tt + = CtY +
1 + rt+1 1 + rt+1
• recall that under fully-funded system we have:
• Intuition: household only worries about its total saving St + Tt = S (Wt , rt+1 ).
Part of this is carried out by the government but it carries the same rate of return.
• Proviso: system should not be “too severe” (Tt < S (Wt , rt+1 )). Otherwise
households are forced to save too much by the pension system.
PAYG pensions
• features transfer from young to old in each period
• We look at defined-contribution system: Tt = T for all t so that Zt+1 = (1 + n)T
• household lifetime budget constraint becomes:
µ ¶ O
rt+1 − n Ct+1
Ŵt ≡ Wt − T = CtY +
1 + rt+1 1 + rt+1
• ceteris paribus factor prices, the PAYG system expands (contracts) the household’s
resources if the market interest rate, rt+1 , falls short of (exceeds) the biological
interest rate (n)
Wt ≡ W (kt ) = ²L kt1−²L
−²L
rt+1 ≡ r(kt+1 ) = (1 − ²L )kt+1 −δ
– introduction of PAYG system is windfall gain to the then old but leads to crowding
out of capital (see path A to C to E0 ). In the long run, wages fall and the interest
rate rises.
kt+1=kt
kt+1
B kt+1=g(kt,0)
!
A
! kt+1=g(kt,T)
!
E0
C!
D
!
! !
kMIN k0 k*(T) k* kt
Wt = φ(rt )
ΛY,i
t ≡ ΛY
(Ct
Y,i
, C O,i
t+1 , 1 − N i
t)
• budget identities:
Tti = tL Wt Nti
– Term (a): pension contributions of the future young generation (to be disbursed to
the then old)
– agent has perfect foresight regarding labour supply of the future young
– it is not tL but tE
L,t which exerts a potentially distorting effect on labour supply
• Symmetric solution as all agents are identical: Nti = Nt . With constant population
growth Lt+1 = (1 + n)Lt and tE L,t simplifies to:
· µ ¶µ ¶µ ¶¸
E Wt+1 Nt+1 1+n
tL,t ≡ tL 1 −
Wt Nt 1 + rt+1
• tE
L,t is negative if the Aaron condition holds, i.e. if the combined effect of growth in
wage income and in the population exceeds the interest rate:
µ ¶
∆Wt+1 Nt+1
tE
L,t <0 ⇔ 1+ (1 + n) > 1 + rt+1
W t Nt
– growth in wage income widens the revenue obtained per young household
– population growth increases the number of young households and thus widens
the total revenue
The macroeconomy
• Relation between household saving and the capital-labour ratio:
St = (1 + n)Nt+1 kt+1
where kt ≡ Kt / (Lt Nt ).
• Labour supply and the savings function:
¡ E
¢
Nt = N Wt (1 − tL,t ), rt+1
O
¡ E
¢
C Wt (1 − tL,t ), rt+1 − (1 + n)tL Wt+1 Nt+1
S [·] ≡
1 + rt+1
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics – Chapter 17 Version 1.0 – March 2004
Ben J. Heijdra
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics: Chapter 17 38
– (worse) tE L,t+1 depends on N t+2 which itself depends on k t+2 , k t+3 , and t E
L,t+2
(infinite regress)
– (but) if the utility function is Cobb-Douglas, then labour supply is constant and the
perfect foresight equilibrium is unique (case discussed below)
Cobb-Douglas preferences
• Assume that the utility function is now:
µ ¶
1
ΛYt ≡ log CtY + λC log[1 − Nt ] + log CtO
1+ρ
where λC ≥ 0 regulates the strength of the labour supply effect.
• Optimal household decision rules:
µ ¶
1+ρ
CtY = WtN
2 + ρ + λC (1 + ρ)
µ ¶
O 1 + rt+1
Ct+1 = WtN
2 + ρ + λC (1 + ρ)
2+ρ
Nt =
2 + ρ + λC (1 + ρ)
with:
· µ µ ¶µ ¶¶¸
Wt+1 1+n
WtN ≡ Wt (1 − tE
L,t ) ≡ Wt 1 − tL 1 −
Wt 1 + rt+1
– labour supply is constant (IE and SE offset each other)
– consumption during youth depends on the future interest rate via the effective tax
rate
– an increase in tL leads to crowding out of the steady-state capital stock (just as when
lump-sum taxes are used)
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics – Chapter 17 Version 1.0 – March 2004
Ben J. Heijdra
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics: Chapter 17 42
• Unlike the lump-sum case, the increase in tL causes a distortion in the labour supply
decision (provided r 6= n)
– recall that the deadweight loss of the distorting tax hinges on the elasticity of the
compensated labour supply curve (which is positive) not of the uncompensated
labour supply curve (which is zero for CD preferences).
• In the context of our model, the DWL of the pension tax tL can be illustrated with
Figure 17.3
X
TE
EE
IC
E0
! ! E0
E2
!
E1
! ! E1
!B
A
!
!
-N 0 CO
• By substituting the solutions for C Y and C O into the utility function we find:
µ ¶
Y 2+ρ
Λ ≡ log X + λC log[1 − Nt ] + constant
1+ρ
2+ρ
N =
2 + ρ + λC (1 + ρ)
(2 + ρ) W (1 − tE
L)
X =
2 + ρ + λC (1 + ρ)
The maximization problem is shown in the left-hand panel of Figure 17.3: IC is the
indifference curve and TE is the constraint. Both are downward sloping because
−N is measured on the horizontal axis!
• If lump-sum tax were used then the slope of TE would not change and the DWL
would be zero (hypothetical transfer equal to tax revenue).
– decrease in mortality
• We can study the first effect with D-S model: focus on interaction with pension
system
Revised model
• Population:
Lt = (1 + nt ) Lt−1
with nt variable
• Saving-capital link:
– LHS: a reduction in nt+1 allows for a higher capital-labour ratio for a given level of
saving
• A permanent decrease in the fertility rate increases the long-run capital stock. The
transition path is shown in Figure 17.4. Economy-wide asset ownership rises
because the proportion of old increases.
• Qualitatively the same conclusion as Auerbach & Kotlikoff reach on basis of detailed
CGE model!
kt+1=kt
kt+1
E1
! kt+1=g(kt,n1)
B kt+1=g(kt,n0)
!
!
E0
A
!
k0 k(n0) k(n1) kt
Extensions
• Human capital accumulation
– automatic knowledge transfer and endogenous growth
• Public investment
– macroeconomic effects
• Intergenerational accounting
Households
• work full time during second period of life
• divide time between training and working during first period
• lifetime utility:
ΛY,i
t ≡ ΛY
(Ct
Y,i
, C O,i
t+1 )
– no direct utility attached to leisure and to training (knowledge not value per se)
• budget identities:
Eti = 1 − Nti ≥ 0
• Training technology:
i
Ht+1 = G(Eti )Hti
– positive but non-increasing returns to training (G0 > 0 ≥ G00 )
– no knowledge depreciation (G(0) = 1)
• Household optimization in two steps:
– choose training level to maximize lifetime income
0 Wt (1 + rt+1 )
G (0) < ⇒ Eti = 0
Wt+1
Corner solution because training technology not productive enough!
– training solution:
µ ¶
Wt+1
Eti >0 ⇒ 1 + rt+1 = G0 (Eti )
Wt
Invest in human capital until its yield equals the yield on financial assets.
Nt = (2 − Et )Ht (d)
µ ¶
Wt+1
1 + rt+1 = G0 (Et ) (e)
Wt
Ht+1 = G(Et )Ht (f)
• Model displays endogenous growth in the steady state. This is illustrated in Figure
1−²
17.5 for the unit-elastic case with technology yt = kt L and utility
ΛYt = log CtY + (1/(1 + ρ)) log Ct+1 O
.
– PB is portfolio balance line: (k, E) combinations for which yields on physical and human
capital equalize
– equilibrium at E0
PB
E0
!
SI
E
(
(=G(E)-1
!
E0
∂ΛY /∂CtY
Y O
= 1 + rt+1
∂Λ /∂Ct+1
∂ΛY 0 ∂ΛY
G (Et )Htβ − < 0 =⇒ Et = 0
∂Ot ∂Zt
∂ΛY 0 ∂ΛY
G (Et )Htβ − = 0 ⇐= Et > 0 (A)
∂Ot ∂Zt
– corner solution if the net marginal benefit of training is negative
– for interior solution training provided until net marginal benefit of training is zero
(all gains exhausted)
• Assume that interior solution (A) obtains. Note that (A) only contains costs and
benefits of the parent! First hint at underinvestment problem. Not all benefits are
taken into account.
• resource constraint:
O
C
CtY + t + (1 + n)kt+1 = F (kt , Ht ) + (1 − δ)kt
1+n
where kt ≡ Kt /Lt
• social planner chooses sequences for consumption ({CtY }∞ t=0 and {C O
}∞
t+1 t=0 ), the
stocks of human and physical capital ({Kt+1 }∞ t=0 and {H t+1 } ∞
t=0 ), and the
educational effort ({Et }∞
t=0 ) in order to maximize SW 0 subject to (a) the training
technology, (b) the time constraint, and (c) the resource constraint.
– marginal social costs (LHS) must be equated to marginal social benefits (RHS)
• Second and third effects are ignored by parents which leads to under-investment in
human capital. Policy options:
– compulsory education
Public investment
• Empirical work by Aschauer prompts a number of questions:
– What are the macroeconomic effects of public investment?
– public capital affects factor productivity (e.g. bridges, roads, airports, etc.)
• Accumulation identity:
Gt+1 − Gt = ItG − δ G Gt
– Gt+1 is public capital stock
– ItG is public investment
– δ G is depreciation rate on public capital
• Technology:
Yt = F (Kt , Lt , gt )
where gt ≡ Gt /Lt
– CRTS in (Kt , Lt )
– positive but diminishing marginal product of public capital, Fg > 0, Fgg < 0
rt = r(kt , gt ) ≡ fk (kt , gt ) − δ,
Wt = W (kt , gt ) ≡ f (kt , gt ) − kt fk (kt , gt ),
where f (kt , gt )
≡ F (Kt /Lt , 1, gt ) is the intensive-form production function. By
1−² ² η
assumption, gt affects rt and Wt positively (Example: Yt = Kt L Lt L gt with
0 < η < ²L )
• Household utility: µ ¶
1
ΛYt = log CtY + O
log Ct+1
1+ρ
• Household lifetime budget constraint:
O O
T t+1 Ct+1
Ŵt ≡ Wt − TtY − = CtY +
1 + rt+1 1 + rt+1
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics – Chapter 17 Version 1.0 – March 2004
Ben J. Heijdra
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics: Chapter 17 75
• Savings function:
µ ¶
¡ Y
¢ O
Tt+1
St = (1 − c) Wt − Tt +c
1 + rt+1
1+ρ
where c ≡ 2+ρ
Model summary
• Model is:
(1 + n)gt+1 = iG
t + (1 − δ G )gt (a)
TtO
iG
t = TtY
+ (b)
1+n
£ ¤ O
cTt+1
Y
(1 + n)kt+1 = (1 − c) W (kt , gt ) − Tt + (c)
1 + r(kt+1 , gt+1 )
• Immediately obvious that financing method critically affects the model: who pays for
iG
t affects (c) and thus the private capital stock and the rest of the economy
• In Figure 17.6 we consider the case in which the old are untaxed (TtO = 0 for all t)
– GE line: (g, k) combinations for which gt+1 = gt .
∗ horizontal
∗ gt rises (falls) for points above (below) the GE line–see the vertical arrows.
– KE line: (g, k) combinations for which kt+1 = kt .
∗ slope is negative (positive) for low (high) private capital stock [Intuition: slope
determined by 1 + n − (1 − c) Wk ; Wk high (low) if k is low (high)]
∗ kt increases (decreases) for points above (below) the KE line–see the
horizontal arrows.
gt
KE: kt+1=kt
A E0
g ! ! GE: gt+1=gt
SP
A
!
0
kA k* k kt
– ρG is the planner’s discount rate (ρG > n). May or may not equal ρ.
– special treatment of current old generation to avoid dynamic inconsistency of the
social optimum (see Intermezzo)
• Resource constraint:
CtO
CtY + + (1 + n) [kt+1 + gt+1 ] = f (kt , gt ) + (1 − δ)kt + (1 − δ G )gt
1+n
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics – Chapter 17 Version 1.0 – March 2004
Ben J. Heijdra
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics: Chapter 17 81
– (b): yields on private and public capital should be equalized (efficient investment)
U 0 (ĈtY )1 + ρG
=
0 O
U (Ĉt ) 1+ρ
∗ if ρG > ρ then planner ensures that U 0 (ĈtY ) > U 0 (ĈtO ) i.e. that ĈtY < ĈtO
(favour the old).
∗ if ρG = ρ then planner ensures that U 0 (ĈtY ) = U 0 (ĈtO ) i.e. that ĈtY = ĈtO
(egalitarian solution)
∗ if ρG < ρ then planner ensures that U 0 (ĈtY ) < U 0 (ĈtO ) i.e. that ĈtY > ĈtO
(favour the young).
Hence, modified golden rules for private and public capital accumulation feature the
social planner’s discount rate
• First-best social optimum can be decentralized if and only if the right policy
instruments are available:
– iG (and thus g ) is set correctly
– age-specific lump-sum taxes are available (even stronger requirement than in the
representative-agent model)
• If one or more of the policy variables is not available, the problem becomes a
second-best optimization problem (Ramsey taxation, modified Samuelson rule)
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics – Chapter 17 Version 1.0 – March 2004
Ben J. Heijdra
Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics: Chapter 17 84
Intergenerational accounting
• How should we measure the government’s fiscal stance?
• Government budget deficit is fundamentally ambiguous
– how do we treat public investment
Government
• Flow budget identity
Bt+1 = (1 + rt )Bt + GO
t + GY
t − T t
O
− T t
Y
– Bt is government debt
– GO
t is pure public good provided to old (free of charge)
Households
• Standard assumptions
• Key expressions:
CtY + St = Wt − TtY
Y O
Ct+1 = (1 + rt+1 )St − Tt+1
St = Bt+1 + Kt+1
Generational accounts
• The GBC can be rewritten in terms of tax bills paid by present and future generations
(see book for details):
µ ¶ µ ¶· O ¸
1 1 Tt+1
Bt = TtO + TtY +
1 + rt 1 + rt 1 + rt+1
| {z } | {z }
(a) (b)
µ ¶µ ¶· O ¸
1 1 Y Tt+2
+ Tt+1 +
1 + rt 1 + rt+1 1 + rt+2
| {z }
(c)
µ ¶µ ¶µ ¶· O ¸
1 1 1 Y Tt+3
+ Tt+2 + + ....
1 + rt 1 + rt+1 1 + rt+2 1 + rt+3
∞
X £ O Y
¤
− Rt−1,τ Gt+τ + Gt+τ
τ =0
– NOTE: all expressed in present value terms (discounted back to the end of period
t − 1)
• A more compact statement of the generational accounts is:
∞
X ∞
X
£ ¤
Bt + Rt−1,τ GO
t+τ + GY
t+τ = Tt−1,k ,
τ =0 k=t−1
µ ¶
1
Tt−1,t−1 ≡ TtO (existing old)
1 + rt
µ ¶
1
Tt−1,t ≡ Tt,t (existing young)
1 + rt
µ ¶" O
#
1 Y Tt+1
= Tt +
1 + rt 1 + rt+1
Tt−1,k ≡ Rt−1,k−1 Tk,k (future generations)
" #
O
Tk+1
= Rt−1,k−t TkY +
1 + rk+1
– Row “Future”: the typical future newborn male must pay US $166,500 (compared
to US $79,000 for a newborn male in 1991)
Discussion
• Restate some of the key points suggested by Buiter
• True, deficit is meaningless indicator
• Method of Generational Accounting also has its own problems:
– lives or dies with validity of the life-cycle model (Ricardian equivalence invalid)
• In principle one could build a CGE model to take all these effects into account.
Practice, however, will prove recalcitrant.
Punchlines
• Studied workhorse model of macroeconomics and public finance
– life-cycle saving
• Pensions
– fully funded: neutral (saving by the government)
– transitional problems
• Human capital
– osmotic transfer and growth
– mandatory education
• Public capital
– macroeconomic effects