Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
12
10
0
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 - 2014 - 2015 - 2016 - 2017 - 2018 -
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Jobs (18 million gained from 2010)
In thousands
150,000
145,000
140,000
135,000
130,000
125,000
120,000
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 - 2014 - 2015 - 2016 - 2017 - 2018 -
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Recent Employment Growth (March 2017 to March
2018)
Oil Price – Bouncing Off Lows
100
80
60
40
20
0
Total Job Openings
6500
In thousands
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
- Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
Job Openings = Job Seekers
In thousands
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
- Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
40
45
50
55
60
65
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
2017 - Apr
2017 - Jul
2017 - Oct
2018 - Jan
2018 - Apr
Home Sales Not Breaking Higher
2010 - May
2010 - Aug
2010 - Nov
Source: NAR
(seasonally adjusted)
2011 - Feb
2011 - May
2011 - Aug
2011 - Nov
2012 - Feb
2012 - May
2012 - Aug
2012 - Nov
2013 - Feb
2013 - May
2013 - Aug
2013 - Nov
2014 - Feb
2014 - May
2014 - Aug
2014 - Nov
2015 - Feb
2015 - May
2015 - Aug
2015 - Nov
2016 - Feb
2016 - May
2016 - Aug
2016 - Nov
2017 - Feb
2017 - May
2017 - Aug
2017 - Nov
2018 - Feb
National Pending Sales Index – No Longer
Is Tax Reform Preventing a Breakout?
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
Source: NAR
Median Days On Market in March 2018
Affordability Index
(Based on Income, Mortgage Rate, Home Price)
250
200
150
100
50
Source: NAR
100
150
200
250
300
400
450
500
350
1995 - Q1
1995 - Q4
1996 - Q3
1997 - Q2
1998 - Q1
1998 - Q4
1999 - Q3
2000 - Q2
2001 - Q1
2001 - Q4
2002 - Q3
2003 - Q2
2004 - Q1
2004 - Q4
2012 - Q2
2013 - Q1
2013 - Q4
2014 - Q3
2015 - Q2
2016 - Q1
2016 - Q4
2017 - Q3
San Francisco
Minneapolis
Seattle
Phoenix
Denver
100
150
200
250
350
300
1995 - Q1
1995 - Q4
1996 - Q3
1997 - Q2
1998 - Q1
1998 - Q4
1999 - Q3
2000 - Q2
2001 - Q1
2001 - Q4
2002 - Q3
2003 - Q2
2004 - Q1
2004 - Q4
2012 - Q2
2013 - Q1
2013 - Q4
2014 - Q3
2015 - Q2
2016 - Q1
2016 - Q4
2017 - Q3
Cleveland
OKC
Boston
DC
Dallas
Income Growth and Home Price
Growth
(from lows in 2011 to 2017)
60%
50% 48%
40%
30%
20%
15%
10%
0%
Income Home Price
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
0.60
2011 - Jan1.80
2011 - Mar
2011 - May
2011 - Jul
2011 - Sep
2011 - Nov
2012 - Jan
2012 - Mar
2012 - May
from zero to …
2012 - Jul
2012 - Sep
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jan
2013 - Mar
2013 - May
2013 - Jul
2013 - Sep
2013 - Nov
2014 - Jan
2014 - Mar
2014 - May
2014 - Jul
2014 - Sep
2014 - Nov
2015 - Jan
2015 - Mar
2015 - May
2015 - Jul
2015 - Sep
2015 - Nov
2016 - Jan
2016 - Mar
2016 - May
2016 - Jul
2016 - Sep
2016 - Nov
2017 - Jan
2017 - Mar
2017 - May
2017 - Jul
2017 - Sep
2017 - Nov
2018 - Jan
2018 - Mar
Tightening Monetary Policy Fed Funds Rate …
Consumer Inflation Slowly Moving Up
(year over year % growth)
CPI
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
in $ billion
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
$18,000,000
$2,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$0
$4,000,000
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jun
2001 - Nov
2002 - Apr
2002 - Sep
2003 - Feb
National Debt
2003 - Jul
2003 - Dec
2004 - May
2004 - Oct
2005 - Mar
2005 - Aug
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jun
2006 - Nov
2007 - Apr
2007 - Sep
2008 - Feb
2008 - Jul
2008 - Dec
2009 - May
2009 - Oct
2010 - Mar
2010 - Aug
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jun
2011 - Nov
2012 - Apr
2012 - Sep
2013 - Feb
2013 - Jul
2013 - Dec
2014 - May
2014 - Oct
2015 - Mar
2015 - Aug
2016 - Jan
2016 - Jun
2016 - Nov
2017 - Apr
2017 - Sep
2018 - Feb
Real World Game of Thrones: Phillip II versus
Elizabeth I
20% 5%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
(around 170 basis points spread above 10 year Treasury)
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
Mortgage Rates to Rise Permanently
2017 - Apr
2017 - Jul
2017 - Oct
2018 - Jan
2018 - Apr
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
60
70
1965 - Q1
1966 - Q1
1967 - Q1
1968 - Q1
1969 - Q1
1970 - Q1
1971 - Q1
1972 - Q1
1973 - Q1
1974 - Q1
1975 - Q1
1976 - Q1
1977 - Q1
1978 - Q1
1979 - Q1
1980 - Q1
1981 - Q1
1982 - Q1
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q1
1985 - Q1
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q1
1988 - Q1
1989 - Q1
1990 - Q1
1991 - Q1
1992 - Q1
1993 - Q1
1994 - Q1
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1
2014 - Q1
2015 - Q1
2016 - Q1
2017 - Q1
2018 - Q1
Homeownership Rate: Trying to Make a Comeback
Renters’ Desire to Own in Future? Strong Among
Young Adults
Wealth: From 2000 to 2016
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Renters Homeowners
America’s Superpower Status Tested after Spunik
Launch
Shocking Homeownership Rate! … Much Room for
Improvement
70%
63%
60% 57%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
50
45
40
35
30
2016 - Q1 2016 - Q2 2016 - Q3 2016 - Q4 2017 - Q1 2017 - Q2 2017 - Q3 2017 - Q4 2018 - Q1
Gallup Survey of Consumers: % indicating Good Time
to Buy
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
55
60
70
75
80
50
65
to Buy
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
2017 - Apr
2017 - Jul
2017 - Oct
2018 - Jan
2018 - Apr
Fannie Mae Housing Survey: % Indicating Good Time
Home Price Expectation
Rise Fall
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Gallup Fannie NAR Consumers NAR Realtors®
Googling What?
From 2012 to 2017
Foot Traffic according to Realtors®
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Diminished Optimism Because of Lack of Supply Need to Boost Single-Family
Housing Starts
2000
In thousand units
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
How to Boost Home Construction
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Median Home Price
Rising 8% over 2 years
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Thank You !
Thank You !