Afghanistan’s stability, Pakistan’s interest
Samran Ali
The Nation | 26 February 2018
https://nation.com.pk/26-Feb-2018/afghanistan-s-stability-pakistan-s-interest
The US Government has again blamed Pakistan for
providing safe havens to the Afghan Taliban and Haq-
qani Network and suspended financial assistance to
Pakistan till Pakistan takes what the US considers
decisive action against the militant groups. The Afghan
authorities also voiced their suspicions that Haqqanis
are hiding in Pakistan.
After the recent bombings in Kabul by the Afghan
Taliban which killed 130 people, the NDS Chief
Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai visited Pakistan. In a
statement he said that he had handed over evidence of
these attacks having been planned on Pakistani soil
along with list of questions to Pakistani authorities.
More credible information emanating from authentic
sources however, contradict US and Afghan authorities’
statements blaming bombings in Afghanistan on the
Taliban hiding on the Pakistan side of the border. The
report presented to the US Congress by US Special
Inspector General Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
General John Sopko warned that the Afghan govern-
ment is gradually losing control over its territory. The
report said that the number of districts controlled or
influenced by the Afghan government is on decline, and
the control and influence by militants is rising. Similarly,
BBC in a recent study claimed that Taliban are control-
ling over 70 percent areas in Afghanistan or 457,004
km² out of total of 652,864 km², four percent or 18,280
km² of these areas are entirely held by Taliban whereas
in 66 percent areas they have partial influence and con-
trol. This area has increased from where foreign com-
bat troops left in 2014. It is noteworthy that out of
fourteen districts entirely controlled by Taliban only
two share border with Pakistan. The other twelve
districts are deep inside Afghanistan.
These findings show that Taliban have safe havens
within Afghanistan. Holding significantly large territory
in Afghanistan, Taliban don’t need Pakistan to provide
them safe havens. To carry out bombings in Kabul and
other areas in north and west of Afghanistan they
would need to travel long distance through areas with
substantive Afghan and NATO security forces pres-
ence. If they operated from outside Afghanistan Taliban
would be exposing themselves to interdiction by
Afghan and US forces equipped with state of the art
surveillance equipment and lethal arms which can kill
Taliban on the move. The ability of Taliban to carry out
bombings with increasing frequency means they have
safe areas near or inside Kabul itself which is about 230
km away from the Pak-Afghan border. This state of
affairs is indicative of glaring failure of Afghan and
NATO forces. NATO and US had taken the responsi-
bility to train and equip Afghan forces enabling them to
effectively improve security situation in Afghanistan.
They have failed in achieving this objective.
Pakistan has genuine security concerns regarding
instability in Afghanistan. Stability in Afghanistan is in
Pakistan’s interest for a number of reasons. Firstly, Pak-
istan has hostile relations with its eastern neighbor
India since its creation. Rationally, it can’t afford a hos-
tile relationship with its western neighbor. Pakistan
therefore would naturally desire stability in Afghanistan.
The spillover of the Afghan War to Pakistani western
region has created serious security challenges for Pakis-
tan. According to Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Com-
mittee (CJCSC) General Zubair Hayat more than two
hundred thousand Pakistani soldiers are engaged in
War on Terror in the western region. This makes it
vulnerable on the eastern border. The resources which
are being used to fight against terrorists can be diverted
to other defense needs of Pakistan to maintain strategic
stability in the region.
Secondly, Pakistan maintains that TTP and Indian
Intelligence agency, RAW are using Afghanistan as a
base for terrorist activities in Pakistan. India uses
Afghanistan for providing training and military support
to Pakistani TTP and Baloch insurgents to carry out
subversive activities. Pakistan also accuses India of
harming the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
comprising a number of energy and infrastructure
projects. These subversive activities have resulted in
123 billion US Dollars loss to Pakistani economy beside
loss of 50,000 civilians and 6,000 military personals
according to Pakistani government figures. A stable and
friendly Afghanistan can help eliminate support to TTP
and Baloch insurgents from Afghanistan resulting in
improving security in Balochistan province.
Thirdly, Pakistan wants to reach out to Central
Asian Republics (CARs) for trade. Pakistan does not
share direct borders with CARs and is separated by
Afghanistan. For Pakistan, a stable Afghanistan is most
feasible route to Central Asia.
Lastly, Pakistan is currently host to about 1.4 mil-
lion registered and 1.1 million unregistered Afghan
refugees. It does not have enough resources to host
them indefinitely. Pakistan plans to repatriate these
refugees butthe US does not favor this move. US
Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of Population,
Refugees, and Migration Situation, Nancy Izzo Jackson
has termed Afghan situation not conducive for their
return right now. But It is clearly the US and Afghan
Government’s combined responsibility to make
conducive environment for refugees to return to their
homes.
With all these concerns Pakistan prefers diplomatic
approach to peace and stability in Afghanistan. The di-
rect bilateral and trilateral talks between Quadrilateral
Coordination Group (QCG) would be positive step.
Afghan Taliban can be persuaded to join the discussion
by accepting some of their demands initially. Working
together would be the key to peace and stability in the
region which will be to mutual benefit of all parties.
The writer is a Research Assistant at the Center for International
Strategic Studies (CISS).