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USD INPUTS DE VALOR cocinas 650 780 936 1,123 1,179 1,238 1,300 1,365 1,434 1,505

cocinas por capacidad instalada 650 780 936 1,123 1,179 1,238 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300
Compra del activo 400,000 precio 500 525 551 579 608 638 670 704 739 776
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ventas iniciales esperadas 650 cocinas 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
crecimiento en cocinas 20.0% 3 años Ingresos 325,000 409,500 515,970 650,122 716,760 790,228 871,062 914,615 960,346 1,008,363
crecimiento en cocinas 5.00% siguientes Costo de MD -169,000 -212,940 -268,304 -338,064 -372,715 -410,918 -452,952 -475,600 -499,380 -524,349
precio promedio 500 Costo de MOD -56,875 -71,663 -90,295 -113,771 -125,433 -138,290 -152,436 -160,058 -168,061 -176,464
incremento 5.00% Margen bruto 99,125 124,898 157,371 198,287 218,612 241,019 265,674 278,958 292,906 307,551
Comisión de ventas -9,750 -12,285 -15,479 -19,504 -21,503 -23,707 -26,132 -27,438 -28,810 -30,251
Costo de Materiales Directos 52.0% ventas Gastos Administrativos -40,000 -42,000 -44,100 -46,305 -48,620 -51,051 -53,604 -56,284 -59,098 -62,053
Costo de MOD 17.5% ventas servicios -12,000 -12,600 -13,230 -13,892 -14,586 -15,315 -16,081 -16,885 -17,729 -18,616
EBITDA 37,375 58,013 84,562 118,587 133,903 150,946 169,857 178,350 187,267 196,631
Comisión de Ventas 3.0% ventas Depreciación -26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667
Gastos Admin. iniciales 40,000 EBIT 10,708 31,346 57,895 91,920 107,236 124,279 143,190 151,683 160,601 169,964
Incrementos de Gastos Adm. 5.0% Impuestos -2,998 -8,777 -16,211 -25,738 -30,026 -34,798 -40,093 -42,471 -44,968 -47,590
servicios 12,000 Depreciacion 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667
NOPAT 34,377 49,236 68,351 92,849 103,877 116,148 129,764 135,879 142,299 149,041
Depreciación lineal 15 años CAPEX -400,000
Tasa Impositiva 28.0% Inv k de w -81,250 -21,125 -26,618 -33,538 -16,659 -18,367 -20,209 -10,888 -11,433 -12,004
Valor de rescate 109,333
Recupero de Inversión Recuperacion k w 201,673
Capital de trabajo 80.0% FCF -400,000 -46,873 28,111 41,734 59,311 87,217 97,781 109,555 124,990 130,867 448,043
Valor venta de activo 100,000 VP flujos
recupero desc
Tasas
Costo de la deuda (ant. impuesto) 12.0%
Costo de la deuda (desp. impuestos) 8.64% VAN 43,987
Retorno del accionista 15.0% IR 1.11 PI = profit index
CCPP (WACC) 11.82% TIR 13.34%

Pasivo 50% Histograma Cuentas por cobrar 81,250 102,375 128,993 162,531 179,190 197,557 217,766 228,654 240,087 252,091
Patrimonio 50% Inventarios 28,167 35,490 44,717 56,344 62,119 68,486 75,492 79,267 83,230 87,391
Cuentas por pagar 28,167 35,490 44,717 56,344 62,119 68,486 75,492 79,267 83,230 87,391
Fondo de maniobra = capital de trabaj 81,250 102,375 128,993 162,531 179,190 197,557 217,766 228,654 240,087 252,091
Fondo de Maniobra Inversiones (81,250) (21,125) (26,618) (33,538) (16,659) (18,367) (20,209) (10,888) (11,433) (12,004)
Inversión en clientes PPC 90 días de las ventas
Inventarios PPI 60 días de Costo de MP Activo bruto 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000
Proveedores PPP 60 días de Costo de MP Depreciacion 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667
base de calculo Año 360 días Activos fijos neto 400,000 373,333 346,667 320,000 293,333 266,667 240,000 213,333 186,667 160,000 133,333
USD INPUTS DE VALOR cocinas
cocinas por capacidad instalada
Compra del activo 400,000 precio

Ventas iniciales esperadas 650 cocinas


crecimiento en cocinas 20.0% 3 años Ingresos
crecimiento en cocinas 5.00% siguientes Costo de MD
precio promedio 500 Costo de MOD
desviacion estandar del precio 30 Margen bruto
incremento 5.00% Comisión de ventas
Gastos Administrativos
Costo de Materiales Directos 52.0% ventas servicios
desviacion costo materiales directos 2.0% EBITDA
Costo de MOD 17.5% ventas Depreciación
EBIT
Comisión de Ventas 3.0% ventas Impuestos
Gastos Admin. iniciales 40,000 Depreciacion
Incrementos de Gastos Adm. 5.0% NOPAT
servicios 12,000 CAPEX
Inv k de w
Depreciación lineal 15 años Valor de rescate
Tasa Impositiva 28.0% Recuperacion k w
FCF
Recupero de Inversión
Capital de trabajo 80.0%
Valor venta de activo 100,000

Tasas VAN
Costo de la deuda (ant. impuesto) 12.0% IR
Costo de la deuda (desp. impuestos) 8.64% TIR
Retorno del accionista 15.0%
CCPP (WACC) 11.82% Cuentas por cobrar
Inventarios
Pasivo 50% Histograma Cuentas por pagar
Patrimonio 50% Fondo de maniobra = capital de traba
Inversiones

Fondo de Maniobra Activo bruto


Inversión en clientes PPC 90 días de las ventas Depreciacion
Inventarios PPI 60 días de Costo de MP Activos fijos neto
Proveedores PPP 60 días de Costo de MP
base de calculo Año 360 días

1 33,335
2 33,335
3 33,335
4 33,335
5 33,335
6 33,335
7 33,335
8 33,335
9 33,335
10 33,335
11 33,335
12 33,335
13 33,335
14 33,335
15 33,335
16 33,335
17 33,335
18 33,335
19 33,335
20 33,335
21 33,335
22 33,335
23 33,335
24 33,335
25 33,335
26 33,335
27 33,335
28 33,335
29 33,335
30 33,335
31 33,335
32 33,335
33 33,335
34 33,335
35 33,335
36 33,335
37 33,335
38 33,335
39 33,335
40 33,335
41 33,335
42 33,335
43 33,335
44 33,335
45 33,335
46 33,335
47 33,335
48 33,335
49 33,335
50 33,335
51 33,335
52 33,335
53 33,335
54 33,335
55 33,335
56 33,335
57 33,335
58 33,335
59 33,335
60 33,335
61 33,335
62 33,335
63 33,335
64 33,335
65 33,335
66 33,335
67 33,335
68 33,335
69 33,335
70 33,335
71 33,335
72 33,335
73 33,335
74 33,335
75 33,335
76 33,335
77 33,335
78 33,335
79 33,335
80 33,335
81 33,335
82 33,335
83 33,335
84 33,335
85 33,335
86 33,335
87 33,335
88 33,335
89 33,335
90 33,335
91 33,335
92 33,335
93 33,335
94 33,335
95 33,335
96 33,335
97 33,335
98 33,335
99 33,335
100 33,335
101 33,335
102 33,335
103 33,335
104 33,335
105 33,335
106 33,335
107 33,335
108 33,335
109 33,335
110 33,335
111 33,335
112 33,335
113 33,335
114 33,335
115 33,335
116 33,335
117 33,335
118 33,335
119 33,335
120 33,335
121 33,335
122 33,335
123 33,335
124 33,335
125 33,335
126 33,335
127 33,335
128 33,335
129 33,335
130 33,335
131 33,335
132 33,335
133 33,335
134 33,335
135 33,335
136 33,335
137 33,335
138 33,335
139 33,335
140 33,335
141 33,335
142 33,335
143 33,335
144 33,335
145 33,335
146 33,335
147 33,335
148 33,335
149 33,335
150 33,335
151 33,335
152 33,335
153 33,335
154 33,335
155 33,335
156 33,335
157 33,335
158 33,335
159 33,335
160 33,335
161 33,335
162 33,335
163 33,335
164 33,335
165 33,335
166 33,335
167 33,335
168 33,335
169 33,335
170 33,335
171 33,335
172 33,335
173 33,335
174 33,335
175 33,335
176 33,335
177 33,335
178 33,335
179 33,335
180 33,335
181 33,335
182 33,335
183 33,335
184 33,335
185 33,335
186 33,335
187 33,335
188 33,335
189 33,335
190 33,335
191 33,335
192 33,335
193 33,335
194 33,335
195 33,335
196 33,335
197 33,335
198 33,335
199 33,335
200 33,335
201 33,335
202 33,335
203 33,335
204 33,335
205 33,335
206 33,335
207 33,335
208 33,335
209 33,335
210 33,335
211 33,335
212 33,335
213 33,335
214 33,335
215 33,335
216 33,335
217 33,335
218 33,335
219 33,335
220 33,335
221 33,335
222 33,335
223 33,335
224 33,335
225 33,335
226 33,335
227 33,335
228 33,335
229 33,335
230 33,335
231 33,335
232 33,335
233 33,335
234 33,335
235 33,335
236 33,335
237 33,335
238 33,335
239 33,335
240 33,335
241 33,335
242 33,335
243 33,335
244 33,335
245 33,335
246 33,335
247 33,335
248 33,335
249 33,335
250 33,335
251 33,335
252 33,335
253 33,335
254 33,335
255 33,335
256 33,335
257 33,335
258 33,335
259 33,335
260 33,335
261 33,335
262 33,335
263 33,335
264 33,335
265 33,335
266 33,335
267 33,335
268 33,335
269 33,335
270 33,335
271 33,335
272 33,335
273 33,335
274 33,335
275 33,335
276 33,335
277 33,335
278 33,335
279 33,335
280 33,335
281 33,335
282 33,335
283 33,335
284 33,335
285 33,335
286 33,335
287 33,335
288 33,335
289 33,335
290 33,335
291 33,335
292 33,335
293 33,335
294 33,335
295 33,335
296 33,335
297 33,335
298 33,335
299 33,335
300 33,335
301 33,335
302 33,335
303 33,335
304 33,335
305 33,335
306 33,335
307 33,335
308 33,335
309 33,335
310 33,335
311 33,335
312 33,335
313 33,335
314 33,335
315 33,335
316 33,335
317 33,335
318 33,335
319 33,335
320 33,335
321 33,335
322 33,335
323 33,335
324 33,335
325 33,335
326 33,335
327 33,335
328 33,335
329 33,335
330 33,335
331 33,335
332 33,335
333 33,335
334 33,335
335 33,335
336 33,335
337 33,335
338 33,335
339 33,335
340 33,335
341 33,335
342 33,335
343 33,335
344 33,335
345 33,335
346 33,335
347 33,335
348 33,335
349 33,335
350 33,335
351 33,335
352 33,335
353 33,335
354 33,335
355 33,335
356 33,335
357 33,335
358 33,335
359 33,335
360 33,335
361 33,335
362 33,335
363 33,335
364 33,335
365 33,335
366 33,335
367 33,335
368 33,335
369 33,335
370 33,335
371 33,335
372 33,335
373 33,335
374 33,335
375 33,335
376 33,335
377 33,335
378 33,335
379 33,335
380 33,335
381 33,335
382 33,335
383 33,335
384 33,335
385 33,335
386 33,335
387 33,335
388 33,335
389 33,335
390 33,335
391 33,335
392 33,335
393 33,335
394 33,335
395 33,335
396 33,335
397 33,335
398 33,335
399 33,335
400 33,335
401 33,335
402 33,335
403 33,335
404 33,335
405 33,335
406 33,335
407 33,335
408 33,335
409 33,335
410 33,335
411 33,335
412 33,335
413 33,335
414 33,335
415 33,335
416 33,335
417 33,335
418 33,335
419 33,335
420 33,335
421 33,335
422 33,335
423 33,335
424 33,335
425 33,335
426 33,335
427 33,335
428 33,335
429 33,335
430 33,335
431 33,335
432 33,335
433 33,335
434 33,335
435 33,335
436 33,335
437 33,335
438 33,335
439 33,335
440 33,335
441 33,335
442 33,335
443 33,335
444 33,335
445 33,335
446 33,335
447 33,335
448 33,335
449 33,335
450 33,335
451 33,335
452 33,335
453 33,335
454 33,335
455 33,335
456 33,335
457 33,335
458 33,335
459 33,335
460 33,335
461 33,335
462 33,335
463 33,335
464 33,335
465 33,335
466 33,335
467 33,335
468 33,335
469 33,335
470 33,335
471 33,335
472 33,335
473 33,335
474 33,335
475 33,335
476 33,335
477 33,335
478 33,335
479 33,335
480 33,335
481 33,335
482 33,335
483 33,335
484 33,335
485 33,335
486 33,335
487 33,335
488 33,335
489 33,335
490 33,335
491 33,335
492 33,335
493 33,335
494 33,335
495 33,335
496 33,335
497 33,335
498 33,335
499 33,335
500 33,335
650 780 936 1,123 1,179 1,238
capacidad instalada 650 780 936 1,123 1,179 1,238
519 544 572 600 630 662
1 2 3 4 5 6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
337,065 424,702 535,124 674,256 743,368 819,563
-180,870 -214,254 -288,849 -372,634 -380,732 -441,999
-58,986 -74,323 -93,647 -117,995 -130,089 -143,423
97,209 136,124 152,628 183,627 232,546 234,141
-10,112 -12,741 -16,054 -20,228 -22,301 -24,587
-40,000 -42,000 -44,100 -46,305 -48,620 -51,051
-12,000 -12,600 -13,230 -13,892 -14,586 -15,315
35,097 68,783 79,245 103,203 147,039 143,187
-26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667
8,430 42,117 52,578 76,536 120,372 116,520
-2,360 -11,793 -14,722 -21,430 -33,704 -32,626
26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667
32,736 56,991 64,523 81,773 113,335 110,561
-400,000
-84,266 -21,909 -27,606 -34,783 -17,278 -19,049

-400,000 -51,530 35,081 36,917 46,990 96,057 91,513


VP flujos
recupero desc

33,335
1.08 PI = profit index
12.96%

84,266 106,175 133,781 168,564 185,842 204,891


30,145 35,709 48,141 62,106 63,455 73,666
30,145 35,709 48,141 62,106 63,455 73,666
maniobra = capital de traba 84,266 106,175 133,781 168,564 185,842 204,891
(84,266) (21,909) (27,606) (34,783) (17,278) (19,049)

400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000


26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667
400,000 373,333 346,667 320,000 293,333 266,667 240,000

resultado zeta probabilidad


Columna1
0- 1.07 14.16%
Media 44,098 100000 1.3605 91.32%
Error típico 1,838 50000 0.1436 55.71%
Mediana 43,491 70000 0.6304 73.58%
Moda #N/A
Desviación est 41,090
Varianza de la ###
Curtosis 0
Coeficiente de (0)
Rango 259,125
Mínimo (95,186)
Máximo 163,938
Suma 22,048,952
Cuenta 500
1,300 1,365 1,434 1,505
1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300
695 730 766 804
7 8 9 10
2021 2022 2023 2024
903,398 948,568 995,996 1,045,796
-493,193 -504,580 -535,798 -540,212
-158,095 -165,999 -174,299 -183,014
252,110 277,988 285,899 322,570
-27,102 -28,457 -29,880 -31,374
-53,604 -56,284 -59,098 -62,053
-16,081 -16,885 -17,729 -18,616
155,323 176,362 179,191 210,527
-26,667 -26,667 -26,667 -26,667
128,657 149,695 152,525 183,860
-36,024 -41,915 -42,707 -51,481
26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667
119,299 134,447 136,484 159,046

-20,959 -11,292 -11,857 -12,450


109,333
209,159
98,341 123,155 124,627 465,088

225,850 237,142 248,999 261,449


82,199 84,097 89,300 90,035
82,199 84,097 89,300 90,035
225,850 237,142 248,999 261,449
(20,959) (11,292) (11,857) (12,450)

400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000


26,667 26,667 26,667 26,667
213,333 186,667 160,000 133,333

8.68%
17.87%