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TO: Garcia for Governor

FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: May 25, 2018
RE: David Garcia has strong lead in just-completed Democratic
primary survey
Between May 21 and 23, 2018, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed (landlines and cell phones) a
sample of 400 likely Arizona Democratic primary voters. This survey, which has a margin of
error of +5%, is fully representative of a statewide Democratic primary by region, ethnicity,
and other key demographics. The following provides the key survey findings.

David Garcia has the highest name recognition of the 3 major Democratic candidates, with
nearly two in five (38%) of primary voters recognizing him, compared to 24% for Senator Steve
Farley and 11% for Kelly Fryer. Moreover, David is extremely well-liked among the voters who
know him, garnering feelings thermometer scores of 28% positive and 1% negative.

As a result, David has a strong lead in the Democratic primary trial heat for governor, defeating
his closest opponent by a near three-to-one ratio, although the plurality (not surprisingly) of
voters surveyed are undecided.

Initial Trial Heat Results

Garcia Fryer Farley Undecided

46%

32%

11% 11%

David leads in EVERY region of the state, he leads among whites and Latinos, and he leads by
significant margins among men (31% Garcia, 14% Farley, 9% Fryer) and actually fares slightly
better among women (32% Garcia, 13% Fryer, Farley 9%).

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Also, David has an impressive 66% to 11% lead among voters who recognize his name,
suggesting that as he gets better-known through the campaign, he will increase his vote.

In fact, David surpasses the majority threshold when we provide survey respondents with
positive, balanced descriptions of the two candidates most likely to mount aggressive paid
media campaigns--David Garcia and Steve Farley.

We read survey respondents the following biographies of David Garcia and Steve Farley
(footnoted below), and then re-asked their preferences in the Democratic primary election for
governor.

Informed Trial Heat Results

Garcia Fryer Farley

51%

29%

6%

David exhibits broad electoral appeal after voters hear about his impressive background,
winning strong majorities throughout the electorate, including overwhelming support among
Latinos (65% Garcia, 22% Farley), and leading among women by two to one (54%-27%).

As Stacey Abram's pollster we saw a very similar dynamic in her race at a similar point in the
primary. David’s campaign and historic candidacy demonstrate strong similarities to the Abrams’
campaign. Absent one of the other Democratic candidates significantly out-communicating
David, we do not see David's solid lead diminishing--which has held steady for over a year--
given the power and appeal of David’s background and agenda. We are confident that David
Garcia is well-positioned to be the Democratic nominee for governor.

STEVE FARLEY is a small business owner and state senator representing the Tucson area. He has served as a
Democratic leader in both the Senate and the House, where he has fought to increase teacher pay and reduce class
sizes to ensure that every Arizonan has access to a first class education. He has focused in the legislature on bringing
good-paying jobs, spurring economic development, and world-class transportation choices to Arizona

DR. DAVID GARCIA is a husband, father, teacher, and veteran, NOT a politician. He's a working-class kid from Mesa
who enlisted in the U.S. Army. He's running for governor to end the crisis in our schools, stamp out corruption, and
make the economy work for all of Arizona. He'll invest in education to create good jobs, and he will make the
wealthiest and corporations pay their fair share.
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