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M

E M O R A N D U M
To: DiNicola for Congress
From: Normington, Petts & Associates
Date: June 11, 2018
RE: PA-16 Poll Results

The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s
Sixteenth Congressional District. Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones. Interviews were conducted June
5-7, 2018. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Summary

• Incumbent Republican Congressman Mike Kelly begins the race in a weak position in this newly configured
district, with a favorable rating of 39% favorable and 30% unfavorable.
• Ron DiNicola begins the race just 6 points down, 44% to 50%. Among those voters who say they definitely
intend to vote in November, DiNicola trails by just two points (47%-49%).
• DiNicola pulls ahead on balanced positive messaging alone, based on his history as a Marine, his work in the
community, and his commitment to taking on special interests in Washington.
• This district is comparable, both demographically and in terms of Trump’s 2016 performance, to PA-18 which
was won by Conor Lamb.

In the initial trial heat matchup, DiNicola has 44% compared to 50% for Kelly. While this district is net 4 points
Republican, Democrats are more energized than Republicans here, just as they are nationally. Among those voters
who say they definitely plan to vote in November, DiNicola trails on this initial matchup by just two points 47% to 49%.

Kelly’s favorable rating is an anemic 39% positive and 30% negative. These numbers are particularly weak given that
Trump is above 50% on both his favorable rating and his job rating.

After balanced, positive paragraphs about both candidates, DiNicola moves ahead 49% to 46%. DiNicola again fares
better among definite voters, winning the informed vote among definite voters by a margin of 51% to 46%.

DiNicola Kelly Undecided
60%
50% 49%
44% 46%
40%

20%

6% 5%
0%
Initial Vote Informed Vote

Figure 1. Initial and Informed Votes for U.S. Congress

This newly configured district represents a real opportunity for Democrats. It is 5 to 6 points more Democratic than
the previous district. Furthermore, Kelly was not expecting to be placed in a more Democratic district and he was not
expecting a challenge from a candidate as strong as DiNicola. The poll clearly demonstrates this district represents a
real opportunity for a Democratic pickup.

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