22 Consciousness and computation

Fig. 1 . 1 . The Lorentz attractor-an early example of a chaotic system. By

following the lines, one moves from the left-hand lobe to the right-hand
one and back again in a seemingly random fashion, and which lobe one
finds oneself in at a given moment depends critically on the starting point.
Yet the curve is defined by a simple mathematical (differential) equation.

weather, are all perfectly well known. However, the weather patterns that may
actually emerge, after only a few days, depend so subtly on the precise initial
conditions that there is no possibility of measuring these conditions accurately
enough for reliable prediction. Of course the number of parameters that would
have to enter into such a computation would be enormous, so it is perhaps not
surprising that prediction, in this case, might prove to be virtually impossible in
practice.
On the other hand, such so-called chaotic behaviour can occur also with very
simple systems, such as those consisting of only a small number of particles.
Imagine, for example, that you are asked to pocket the fifth snooker ball E in a
crooked * and very well-spaced-out chain A, B, C, D, E, by hitting A with the cue
so that A hits B, causing B to hit C, then C to hit D, and finally D to hit E into the
pocket. The accuracy needed for this is, in general, far in excess of the abilities of
any expert snooker player. If there were 20 in the chain, then even if the balls
were perfectly elastic exact spheres, the task of potting the final ball would be far
beyond the most accurate machinery of modem technology. In effect, the
behaviour of the later balls in the chain would be random, despite the fact that
the Newtonian laws governing the behaviour of the balls is mathematically
completely deterministic and in principle effectively computable. No compu­
tation could predict the actual behaviour of the later balls in the chain, simply
because there would be no way of determining enough accuracy for the actual
*In an earlier draft of this book I had not included the word 'crooked' here. If the
balls are all precisely arranged in a straight line, then the feat turns out to be quite
easy, as I learned to my surprise when testing things myself. There is a fortuitous
stability that occurs with precise alignment, but this does not hold in the general
case.