(a)

Tr = (N+1) / m ORDEN MAYOR - MENOR ORDEN MENOR -

m (ORDEN) WEIBULL
Xi = Q (m3/s) MAYOR Xi = Q (m3/s)
P = m/(n+1)
21.00 210.25 1 95.05 0.0476
10.50 205.30 2 98.13 0.0952
7.00 200.80 3 100.18 0.1429
5.25 185.50 4 102.40 0.1905
4.20 182.40 5 105.50 0.2381
3.50 180.10 6 110.20 0.2857
3.00 178.90 7 125.60 0.3333
2.63 175.50 8 135.40 0.3810
2.33 170.10 9 144.60 0.4286
2.10 167.30 10 165.50 0.4762
1.91 165.50 11 167.30 0.5238
1.75 144.60 12 170.10 0.5714
1.62 135.40 13 175.50 0.6190
1.50 125.60 14 178.90 0.6667
1.40 110.20 15 180.10 0.7143
1.31 105.50 16 182.40 0.7619
1.24 102.40 17 185.50 0.8095
1.17 100.18 18 200.80 0.8571
1.11 98.13 19 205.30 0.9048
1.05 95.05 20 210.25 0.9524

X prom (m3/s) = 151.94

S (m3/s) = 39.54
nóN= 20.00
X prom + S = 191.47
X prom - S = 112.40

Tr (años) F(Z) = P = (Tr -1)/Tr Z (Tabla A.2)

2 0.500 0.000
5 0.800 0.845
10 0.900 1.285
25 0.960 1.755
50 0.980 2.055
100 0.990 2.330
200 0.995 2.575
500 0.998 2.875

CAUDALES MÁXIMOS POR LOS DIFERENTES MÉTODOS ESTA

1000.00
 CAUDALES MÁXIMOS POR LOS DIFERENTES MÉTODOS ESTA
1000.00

CAUDALES (Q) EN m3/s

100.00

10.00

1.00
1 10 100

PERÍODO DE RETORNO (Tr) EN AÑOS

DISTRIBUC.NORMAL REGISTR.HISTOR. WEIBULL

 (a) (b) (b) (a)
WEIBULL EN % CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA EN % Z F(Z) WEIBULL
P = (m/(n+1))*100 P = m/n P = (m/n)*100 ∆ = /F(Z) - P(X)/
4.7619 0.050 5.000 -1.44 0.0749 0.027
9.5238 0.100 10.000 -1.36 0.0869 0.008
14.2857 0.150 15.000 -1.31 0.0951 0.048
19.0476 0.200 20.000 -1.25 0.1057 0.085
23.8095 0.250 25.000 -1.17 0.1210 0.117
28.5714 0.300 30.000 -1.06 0.1446 0.141
33.3333 0.350 35.000 -0.67 0.2514 0.082
38.0952 0.400 40.000 -0.42 0.3372 0.044
42.8571 0.450 45.000 -0.19 0.4247 0.004
47.6190 0.500 50.000 0.34 0.6337 0.158
52.3810 0.550 55.000 0.39 0.6517 0.128
57.1429 0.600 60.000 0.46 0.6772 0.106
61.9048 0.650 65.000 0.60 0.7258 0.107
66.6667 0.700 70.000 0.68 0.7518 0.085
71.4286 0.750 75.000 0.71 0.7612 0.047
76.1905 0.800 80.000 0.77 0.7794 0.017
80.9524 0.850 85.000 0.85 0.8023 0.007
85.7143 0.900 90.000 1.24 0.8925 0.035
90.4762 0.950 95.000 1.35 0.9115 0.007
95.2381 1.000 100.000 1.47 0.9292 0.023

(a) WEIBULL = ∆ max = ∆ tabular = 0.158 y ∆ teórico = 0.294

(b) CALIFORNIA = ∆ max = ∆ tabular = 0.155 y ∆ teórico = 0.294

Xi (m3/s) F(Z) = P
191.47 84.00
151.94 50.00
112.40 16.00

S (m3/s) X prom (m3/s) Q max (m3/s)

39.54 151.94 151.94

39.54 151.94 185.34
39.54 151.94 202.74
39.54 151.94 221.32
39.54 151.94 233.18
39.54 151.94 244.05
39.54 151.94 253.74
39.54 151.94 265.60

LOS DIFERENTES MÉTODOS ESTADÍSTICOS

LOS DIFERENTES MÉTODOS ESTADÍSTICOS

0 100 1000

ODO DE RETORNO (Tr) EN AÑOS

RMAL REGISTR.HISTOR. WEIBULL

 (b)
CALIFORNIA
∆ = /F(Z) - P(X)/ PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV A UNA DISTRIBUCIÓN NOR
0.025
250.00
0.013
0.055
0.094
200.00
0.129
0.155
0.099

CAUDALES Qi = Xi (m3/s)
150.00
0.063
0.025
0.134
0.102 100.00

0.077
0.076
0.052 50.00
0.011
0.021
0.048 0.00
0.007 1.00 10.00

0.039 PROBABILIDADES (%)

0.071
R.H. - WEIBULL F (Z)
SE AJUSTA
SE AJUSTA
UNA DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL PARA WEIBULL

100.00

(%)

F (Z)