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TO: Interested Parties

FR: DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján


RE: 20 Weeks Out From Election Day
DT: June 19, 2018

With twenty weeks until Election Day, Democrats are in the strongest position to date to win
back the House of Representatives. More than half of the primary elections have taken place,
and in districts across the country, grassroots Democrats have nominated highly qualified
candidates with impressive records of service, compelling biographies and deep ties to their
districts. These nominees provide exceptional matchups for the general election, where they’ll
face vulnerable House Republicans struggling to escape the dark cloud of a historically
unpopular agenda.

The primaries have also revealed a massive surge in Democratic voter participation. In key
districts in New Jersey, North Carolina, Texas, Kentucky and California, Democrats have turned
out in significantly higher numbers than in 2014 primaries – the last midterm. In some places,
like Iowa, turnout has exceeded 2016 presidential primary and caucus levels. Voters are excited
to vote for small business owners, veterans, CIA officers, non-profit executives, and a diverse
new brand of Democratic candidates. Robust primaries have energized the Democratic base,
built a powerful volunteer infrastructure and introduced first-time candidates. Voters know that
the midterms are the most critical opportunity to fight back against the Washington Republican
agenda that threatens so many Americans, and the turnout reflects that.

Republican incumbents have nothing positive to run on and nowhere to hide. House
Republicans stand beside Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Corey Stewart and others as lead
actors in a Republican-controlled Washington that has failed and betrayed the American
people and future generations. This has led to a historic number of retirements, including the
sitting Speaker of the House. For those Republicans running for re-election, these influences
mean that independents and moderate Republican voters needed to win in swing districts are
moving further out of reach by the day.

PLAYING TO WIN

House Democrats are taking that momentum and energy and playing to win. Just this month in
California, the DCCC and our grassroots allies successfully nominated Democrats in every
Republican-held district in California that Secretary Clinton won. The threat of shutouts in
multiple districts loomed, but the DCCC made long-term, strategic investments and took
decisive action while national Republicans sat on their hands.

Democratic primary voters are unified around the goal of winning back the House, and they’ve
demonstrated that fact by repeatedly nominating candidates with deep records of service who

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are extremely well-positioned to win the general election. Nearly all of the DCCC’s Red to Blue
candidates have moved on to the general election.

The DCCC has invested in ensuring candidates have the resources to tell their stories. In the
first quarter of 2018, 38 challengers outraised incumbents. The DCCC itself continues to raise
at historic levels, and has outraised the NRCC almost every month this cycle.

Finally, the polling in districts across the country shows that Democratic challengers are already
tied, within the margin of error, or ahead of the Republican incumbent. The DCCC is releasing
several polls today, including many districts that are deep into the map that Trump won.

New Mexico CD 2 New Jersey CD 3

Xochitl Torres Small 43% Andy Kim* 50%

Yvette Herrell 45% Tom MacArthur* 44%

*Informed vote

California CD 39 Kentucky CD 6

Gil Cisneros 43% Amy McGrath 52%

Young Kim 45% Andy Barr 37%

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North Carolina CD 9 Pennsylvania CD 1

Dan McCready 44% Scott Wallace 46%

Mark Harris 43% Brian Fitzpatrick 48%

New York CD 22 Pennsylvania CD 16

Anthony Brindisi 50% Ron DiNicola* 47%

Claudia Tenney 44% Mike Kelly* 47%

*Informed vote

Texas CD 7 Virginia CD 10

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher 45% Jennifer Wexton 46%

John Culbertson 47% Barbara Comstock 43%

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Pennsylvania CD 10

George Scott 41%

Scott Perry 45%

POLLING DETAILS
 NM-02 (DCCC Analytics Survey, 6/7/18)
o Yvette Herrell (45%) – Xochitl Torres Small (43%)
 NJ-03 (GQR Survey, 6/3/18)
o Tom MacArthur (48%) – Andy Kim (44%)
o Informed Vote: Tom MacArthur (44%) – Andy Kim (50%)
 CA-39 (DCCC Analytics Survey, 6/10/18)
o Young Kim (45%) – Gil Cisneros (43%)
 KY-06 (DCCC Analytics Survey, 5/2/18)
o Andy Barr (37%) – Amy McGrath (52%)
 NC-09 (ALG Survey, 3/13/18)
o Mark Harris (43%) – Dan McCready (44%)
 PA-01 (DCCC Analytics Survey, 5/12/18)
o Brian Fitzpatrick (48%) – Scott Wallace (46%)
 PA-16 (Normington Petts, 6/1/18)
o Mike Kelly (50%) – Ron DiNicola (44%)
o Informed Vote: Mike Kelly (47%) – Ron DiNicola (47%)
 TX-07 (DCCC Analytics Survey, 5/29/18)
o John Culberson (47%) – Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (45%)
 VA-10 (DCCC Analytics Survey, 3/21/18)
o Barbara Comstock (43%) – Jennifer Wexton (46%)
 NY-22 (GQR Survey, 3/12/18)
o Claudia Tenney (44%) – Anthony Brindisi (50%)
 PA-10 (PPP Survey, 6/10/18)
o Scott Perry (45%) – George Scott (41%)

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FIGHT TO TAKE IT BACK

We never said this would be easy: we will have to fight for every inch and leave no stone
unturned. We are all going to have to do our part to take back the House. The DCCC and its
allies must define the Republicans’ agenda on healthcare, taxes and immigration, continue
to fundraise to compete with outside Republican dark money, and meet aggressive voter
registration and turnout goals in order to win on November 6th.

Republicans in Congress have failed their constituents when it comes to protecting their
communities, fighting for affordable healthcare, raising wages and lowering everyday costs.
Democrats must spend the next 20 weeks ensuring that voters know that we will fight for
them, while Republicans put their corporate special interests first. This effort must be vigilant
and focused on personal economic issues like the Republican assault on healthcare, which is
particularly critical as states across the country announce increased health insurance premiums
caused by the Republican tax scam.

Republicans will outspend Democrats, thanks to their well-funded outside groups who have
indicated plans to spend upwards of hundreds of millions of dollars in the midterm elections.
The DCCC continues to outraise the NRCC and Democratic candidates are working hard each
day to outraise incumbents, but the deep pockets of groups like the Republican National
Committee, the Koch Brothers and Speaker Ryan’s SuperPAC loom over the House battlefield.

Democrats are fighting on Republican turf due to the expansive gerrymandering that
Republicans have deployed in districts across the country. Therefore, voter registration and
field investments are crucial to expanding the pool of Democratic voters and turning them out
in swing districts that will be decided on the margins. The DCCC has an aggressive goal of
registering 200,000 new voters by November 6th.

Beyond voter registration, we must make sure that our base of support – including millennials,
African American voters, Hispanic voters, Asian American voters and women – turn out in the
midterms. Based on battlefield analytics, the DCCC has a goal of turning out roughly 3.8
million base Democratic voters by November 6th. But we can’t stop there. The Republican
agenda and the direction of President Trump’s party is turning off Independents and even
moderate Republicans every day. The DCCC has a battlefield analytics goal of persuading and
turning out nearly 6 million of those voters who are open to voting for the Democrat for
Congress.

The state of play is exciting. House Democrats have the energy, we have the momentum, we
have the strategy to invest in the battlefield and turn out voters, and we have inspiring
candidates telling their stories and ready to finish the job. It’s why - if we all do our part for the
next 20 weeks - Democrats are on the path to the majority in 2018.

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