Case: Military Aid to Ukraine

Hansen
Spring 2015

Synopsis: Ad I is Ukrainian. A ceasefire was just agreed upon, but it will fail. Plan solves by
providing needed support to the Ukrainian military legitimacy. Ad 2 is heg, so copy it from that
file.

Plan: The United States Federal Government should provide Theater Missile Defense to
the Ukraine.

Ad I: Ukraine
Uniqueness
1 Rebels are mobilizing now
-Reuters reported on Feb 4 that pro-Russian rebels have captured Vuhlehirsk which is a
setback for Kiev, which has been trying to defend it and the larger neighboring town of
Debaltseve, an important rail hub, from encirclement by advancing rebels.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/04/us-ukraine-crisis-hospital-idUSKBN0L80Y320150204

-Alexander Zakharchenko, the head of the self proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said on
Thursday that he would push the front line so far to the west of Donetsk that Ukrainian shells
would no longer be able to fall on the city.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11363929/Pro-Russia-separatists-
vow-further-advances-into-Ukraine-after-taking-Donetsk-airport.html

2 Talks will fail

-On our side, we won’t make an effort to talk about a cease-fire,” Mr. Zakharchenko said. “Now
we’re going to watch how Kiev reacts. Kiev doesn’t understand that we can attack in three
directions at once.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/24/world/europe/ukraine-violence.html

-A Ukrainian military spokesman said around 50 tanks, 40 missile systems and 40 armoured
vehicles had crossed overnight [right after the agreement was reached] into eastern Ukraine
from Russia. It was not immediately possible to verify the figures, which were higher than in
previous such statements. Moscow dismisses them as groundless.

-NATO has said there is overwhelming evidence of Russian armour entering Ukraine but
declined to comment on the latest report.

-"The intensity of fighting is evidenced by a sharp increase in the number of people trying to
leave front-line towns," spokesman Andriy Lysenko said on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/12/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0LG0FX20150212

-"They violated just about every agreement they made in the Minsk agreement," Obama said of
the Russians and the rebels just months after it was signed

3 Breaking of the new Minsk agreement will worsen the conflict

-Jonathan Eyal, the international director of the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in
London said on Tuesday, Feb 10 that, "We will end up in a sort of proxy war.”

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/10/world/ukraine-peace-deal-whats-next/

-Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said he will blame Kiev if the cease-fire
collapses and then there "will be no meetings and no new agreements."

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/02/ukraine_peace_deal_cease-fire.html

Impacts
1 Civil War
-Rebels continue to get more and more sophisticated arms, which indicates they are being
armed by Russian groups.

-Kiev is currently planning to escalate the conflict and engage in more ruthless tactics. At the
end of December government officials hired on special urban combat groups from Blackwater, a
PMC that opened fire on civilians in Baghdad.

http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20141231/1013405271.html

-Civil war has the potential to kill thousands and displace millions. The current civil war has
displaced 1.2 million and killed over 5,000.

2 Dirty bomb
-A major fear is that officials will sell radioactive material to terrorist groups for a dirty bomb.
Ukraine has relatively low standards for storing its nuclear waste and has lots of fissile material
left over from the Soviet era for its nuclear reactors. In 2004, 2009, 2014 during political unrest
there were instances of police stopping the sell of radioactive material to potential terrorist
groups.

-it could be estimated that the contraction of the U.S. economy following an RDD event would
exceed the cumulative economic fallout following 9/11 by an order-of-magnitude greater than
12, or over $1trillion according to “DIRTY BOMB” ATTACK: ASSESSING NEW YORK CITY’S
LEVEL OF PREPAREDNESS FROM A FIRST RESPONDER’S PERSPECTIVE by John
Sudnik, his thesis for the Naval Postgraduate School
-The report also suggests that a RDD could immediately kill tens of thousands and cause long
term health implications for the area.

http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/sudnik.pdf

Solvency
1 What TMD is
-TMD is a mixture of missile defense systems designed to protect a country from short and
medium ranged rocket attacks.

-Which systems would be deployed and how would be a decision left to the Pentagon after
assessing which current systems would be most effective in stopping Russian style SCUD’s.

-TMD is incredible effective. When deployed to Israel, the Iron Dome system has effectively
stopped over 90% of missiles launched from Gaza. During the Gulf War Patriot Missile Systems
shot down 45 of 47 SCUDS, which are Russian rockets.

2 Plan discourages escalation

-Deploying TMD now shows the US is serious about enforcing the cease-fire. TMD would be
capable of stopping artillery strikes from pro-Russian rebels. This prevents the rebels from
launching attacks on fringe cities with artillery preemptively as they have before.

-TMD shows Russia the US is interested in protecting the area. While Russia may be quick to
match offensive capabilities, defensive missile systems align US action with international talks
about Ukraine.

3 Plan sets a precedent for US action as needed

-US military aid reifies territorial integrity for Ukraine. When the US offers aid to another country,
it typically continues to offer aid as needed from then on. For example, US aid to Israel is
changing based on its security needs.