DA: China War, US withdrawal

Hansen
Fall 2015

Synopsis: US military can contain China now, perceived or actual withdrawal risks nuclear war.

Uniqueness
1 China is building out their military to challenge the US now
-China’s current focus is on growing its capabilities to blunt America’s ability to force project in
the SCS. This is called their A2/AD program (anti-area/access denial). It focuses around things
like the DF-21D “carrier-killer” ballistic missile.

-Rapid Chinese modernization challenges the technological superiority the US has held for the
past 20 years. Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work show concerns that the US is at risk
of being overtaken.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/welcome-china-americas-nuclear-nightmare-11891

2 However, the US can counterbalance now

-The DoD recently announced “Offset Strategy” initiative which refocuses the Pentagon around
power projection and maintaining technological superiority by updating US tactics and research
methods. This will be the third off-set.
http://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech-View/Article/606641/the-third-us-offset-
strategy-and-its-implications-for-partners-and-allies
http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/the-pentagons-third-offset-strategy-what-us-allies-and-partners-
need-to-know/

-US military advantage maintains peace. Miles Maochun Yu, professor of East Asia and military
history at the United States Naval Academy, “US Foreign Policy in a Turbulent Pacific,” states
that, “

3 A strategic shift will make nuclear weapons more central to security plans
-Elbridge Colby, Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security,
“Welcome to China and America's Nuclear Nightmare,” states that “China’s military buildup—in
particular its growing capabilities to blunt America’s ability to project effective force in the
western Pacific—is threatening to change the military balance in the area. This will lead to a
cascade of strategic shifts that will make nuclear weapons more central in both American and
Chinese national-security plans, while increasing the danger that other regional states will seek
nuclear arsenals of their own.”the United States is the crucial, irreplaceable pillar that upholds
the existing geopolitical structure and guarantees continuing political stability and economic
prosperity This US role in tempering China’s ambition, thus minimizing regional tensions, has
worked well overall in the several decades since the end of World War II”

Links
1 Backing off rewards China, turns solvency
-Assistant Professor of Poli Sci and Diplomacy at Pusan University says that withdraw
a makes the US look weak and causes China to question US credibility and ability to maintian
force in a region
b Makes US allies question their security guarantees. Pullout would incentivize allies to align
with China and move under their protection
https://asiansecurityblog.wordpress.com/2009/12/18/should-the-us-pull-out-of-south-korea-2-no/

Impacts
1 Real or perceived military parity with China risks nuclear war
-Elbridge Colby, Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security,
“Welcome to China and America's Nuclear Nightmare, ”Even without anyone really wanting to
introduce nuclear weapons into the equation, then, these trends raise classic “inadvertent
escalation” risks. This line of analysis points to the dangers of escalation that can arise due to
the way even a conventional war can unfold. In particular, if one needs to fight harder against an
opponent in order to prevail, it also becomes harder to limit the war—including in ways that
might entangle nuclear weapons. For instance, U.S. efforts in the event of conflict to strike at
Chinese command-and-control nodes, missile bases and systems, surveillance and intelligence
assets, and the like, even if intended only to affect the nonnuclear balance, might well implicate
nuclear weapons. This might be because such assets or capabilities might be collocated with
nuclear forces or themselves have dual nuclear and conventional roles, because the Chinese
might fear such hard-hitting attacks are a prelude to decapitation, or because the Chinese might
misread conventional strikes as nuclear attacks. In the fog of war, any number of such dynamics
could push toward consideration of nuclear use.”