older ones and growth has reached the satellite cities of
Surabhi Arora
Senior Associate Director | Research
surabhi.arora@colliers.com
Saif Lari
Assistant Manager | Research
saif.lari@colliers.com
The National Capital Region (NCR), is
consistently the second largest office
market with 20% share of the annual
nationwide leasing volume over the past
five years. In our opinion, the NCR
should retain its dominance in office
demand over the next five years. We
expect Delhi to see a facelift with
redevelopment projects over the coming
years. The satellite city Gurugram
should remain the preferred city among
corporate occupiers against the
backdrop of a business-friendly
environment, healthy new supply and
infrastructure improvements. NOIDA is
likely to come out of its image of
affordable technology hub and rise as
an emerging commercial market. We
advise new entrants to choose well-
established micromarkets in Delhi and
Gurugram while occupiers looking for
affordability should start exploring
NOIDA for their large requirements and
backend operations. In our opinion,
investors should keep the momentum
upbeat taking cues from the
infrastructure initiatives and optimistic
business conditions in the region.
Executive Summary
The NCR's commercial real estate has witnessed a spell
of steady and fast-paced growth over the past few years.
During this period the office market has seen an
emergence of new business districts, expansion of the
2 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
Gurugram, NOIDA and beyond. According to Oxford
Economics, Delhi is one of the brightest spots in the
Indian economy with a forecasted annual average GDP
growth rate of 7.9% over 2018-22. Supported by
economic growth, we forecast that the NCR market
should continue to account for the second largest
proportion of office demand in India.
Figure 1: Pan India demand Analysis
Source: Colliers International India Research
In our opinion, the first and foremost driver ensuring
sustained growth of the region is the government's focus
on infrastructure and intercity road connectivity.
Additionally, the scheduled completion of metro rail
stations by 2020 is likely to put metro rail access within
3.0 km (1.8 miles) reach from all the major business
districts of the NCR, giving a thrust to the office market.
Catering to the requirement of the occupiers, developers
are planning a large quantity of supply in the emerging
corridors. We are also noticing a positive response from
occupiers for the new Grade A supply with increasing
pre-commitments. Under the umbrella of Corporate Real
Estate (CRE), flexible workspaces have now found a
niche for themselves in the market and are managing
about 1 million sq ft (0.9 million sq m) of office space
across the region. Another boost to the office market is
likely to come from the timely execution of the Special
Economic Zones (SEZs) with a supply pipeline of about
9 million sq ft (0.9 million sq m) before the application of
the sunset clause which entails a removal of income tax
exemption for SEZ occupiers after 31 March 2020.
We had various discussions with market participants, and
the general opinion of occupiers is that although we
cannot ignore the growing prominence of NOIDA, we
expect Gurugram to remain the preferred city among
corporate occupiers. The availability of a large talent
pool, Grade A office stock, excellent connectivity with
Delhi and the strong footprint of global companies should
help Gurugram maintain its pivotal position in the NCR
office market. NOIDA, on the other hand, is likely to
transform into an affordable option for the commercial
occupiers. In Delhi, given the scarce supply, the city
should pave the way for redevelopment of older projects.
 Contents

NCR: Market landscape ..................... 4

Future of the NCR market .................. 5

#1 Robust metro network; unparalleled to

any other city in India ................................ 5

#2 Demand to follow the Grade A supply in

coming years ............................................. 6

#3 Flexible workspaces to remain in vogue;

aggressive growth to follow ....................... 7

#4 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to be a

magnet for technology occupiers ............... 8

#5 Gurugram to remain the dominating

office market in NCR ................................. 9

#6 NOIDA to transform into an affordable

commercial hub ....................................... 10

#7 Redevelopment - a facelift for Delhi's

real estate market ................................... 11

3 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
 demand in the region, with about 58%, while NOIDA and
NCR: Market Delhi have 29% and 13% of office demand respectively.

We foresee NCR’s contribution to

landscape
The NCR is the largest urban agglomeration in India and
third largest in the world after Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan
and Jakarta, Indonesia1. In India, the NCR comfortably
accounts for 20% of nationwide office demand, placing it
second only to Bengaluru over the past five years. This
seems to be picking up as the region accounted for
about 26% of pan-Indian office leasing demand in Q1
2018.
The geographical delineation of NCR comprises many
neighbouring satellite cities from the bordering states,
but the CRE hubs are spread across three major cities
namely Delhi, Gurugram and the New Okhla Industrial
Development Authority (NOIDA). This amalgamation
comprises about 109 million sq ft (10.1 million sq m) of
Grade A office stock (See: Figure 2).
Although Delhi is the national capital of India, it accounts
for only 13% of the total stock in NCR while the satellite
cities Gurugram and NOIDA account for 58% and 29%
of NCR stock respectively. Gurugram dominates office
the country’s economic output
surging over the next five to ten
years given its rising attractiveness
as an investment hub supported by
huge Grade A commercial
development and crucial metro rail,
road and air infrastructure projects.
Oxford Economics forecasts Delhi-NCR’s annual
average GDP growth to be 7.9% over 2018-2022,
ranking fourth among the Asian cities.
In our opinion, the expansion in economic activities,
large infrastructure outlay and upcoming Grade A supply
are the factors that should support high demand for
commercial office space over the coming years. In this
report, we have identified the seven key trends that we
expect to determine the future of NCR office market.

Figure 2: Pan-India Office market analysis

Source: Colliers International India Research

1World Agglomerations 14th edition, Demographia World

Urban Areas, published on April 2018

4 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
Key trends that are likely to shape
the NCR office market in the future
#1 Robust metro network; unparalleled to any By 2020 most of the business
city in India districts in the NCR should be
The Delhi Metro Rail Corporation is undertaking the connected by the metro rail. On
biggest metro rail project in the country. W ith a network
of around 252 km (156.5 miles) sprawling across the
completion of Phase 4, Delhi metro
NCR region, it is currently the twelfth largest intercity rail should become the seventh
metro rail project in the world with about 202 stations
across nine metro rail lines spread over the city.
largest metro line network in the
world covering a distance of 310
While most of the southern and western cities are still km (192.6 miles).
struggling with haphazard urbanisation and connectivity
problems, the infrastructure in the NCR region is With the walk to work concept becoming increasingly
relatively well developed. The metro connectivity is not preferred in the Corporate Real Estate (CRE) world,
only intra-city but also inter-city which extends to the accessibility has become one of the significant decision-
neighbouring satellite cities such as NOIDA, Gurugram, making factors for occupiers. In our opinion, the robust
Faridabad and Ghaziabad. metro network should be one of the major driving factors
of office demand in the NCR. In most of the other major
We mapped all the three-primary commercial
cities, occupiers are required to provide the end-to-end
micromarkets of NCR on the Delhi metro rail network and
(home to office) transport facilities to the employees.
concluded that most of the commercial hubs in Delhi
However, in the NCR, the provision of shuttle cab
already have metro access (See: Figure 3). With the
service to the nearest metro rail station is not only cost-
completion of Phase 4 of the Delhi metro rail network, all
effective but much easier to implement. The far-reaching
the office locations of Gurugram and NOIDA should have
metro rail network in the emerging corridors should
metro access within a 3.0 km (1.8 miles) radius over the
facilitate the expansion of CRE in this region.
next three years.

Figure 3: Robust metro rail system and the placement of key micromarkets

Source: Colliers International India Research

5 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
 ft/month, while GCER is quoting rents in the range of
#2 Demand to follow the Grade A supply in INR45 to 75 (USD0.70 to 1.20)/sq ft/month, a
coming years substantial rent difference. Although the social
amenities and infrastructure are still nascent, we
Over the last couple of years, we have witnessed a clear
believe it is the right time for occupiers with leases
preference for premium Grade A buildings in the NCR.
expiring in the next one to two years to start
Despite the high vacancy rate of about 28%, select
exploring this micromarket. This should allow an
premium buildings have achieved higher occupancy and
opportunity to hedge against future rent increases.
rental premiums of 30% to 40% over the market rent.
Figure 4: Upcoming supply in Gurugram and NOIDA
Some good examples of premium Grade A buildings
setting a higher benchmark are Bharti Realty Worldmark
in Aerocity (Delhi), Red Fort Capital Parsvnath Towers
on Connaught Place (Delhi), DLF Cybercity, Hines One
Horizon Centre in Golf Course Road (GCR, Gurugram),
Max tower and the World Trade Tower in Sector 16
(NOIDA). Given the higher demand for premium
buildings, developers are building several Grade A
developments in emerging submarkets which are likely
to be completed over the next three years.

We have witnessed a trend where

large occupiers are being more
strategic with their real estate
requirements, pre-committing
space for future needs and
optimising their real estate
portfolios. Recently, large
occupiers such as Gartner, Bank of
America, Boston Consulting Group
and Google have pre-committed to
office space in upcoming Grade A
properties.
In preferred micromarkets we expect this trend to
continue with demand following the Grade A supply in Source: Colliers International India Research
the upcoming years. Some micromarkets which we > NOIDA Expressway
expect to see this trend include:
We expect the NOIDA-Greater NOIDA Expressway
> Golf Course Extension Road (GCER) micromarket to gain prominence over the coming
years due to the huge supply pipeline. About 64% of
Recently, the GCER has started witnessing the total supply is concentrated in NOIDA
increased occupier interest. The extension of Expressway. Unlike in the past, when the supply was
Gurugram's Rapid Metro to GCER, availability of chiefly catering to Information Technology and
Grade A supply and increasing rents in preferred Information Technology Enabled Services (IT/ITeS)
micromarkets such as Cybercity, MG Road and GCR occupiers, the new supply in this stretch is more
are the primary drivers of this trend. commercial in nature, serving corporate occupiers.

In our opinion, the GCER, with 30% of the total In our opinion, the new commercial buildings should
upcoming new supply, is a natural extension of the help NOIDA to shed its image as a pure IT/ITeS
GCR micromarket. The Grade A buildings in GCR destination. The upcoming international airport at
quote about INR100 to 200 (USD1.70 to 3.0)/sq Jewar and the new metro connectivity should further

6 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
 enhance the viability of this area for corporate
occupiers. Further, manufacturing companies with
operations in the Greater NOIDA area may like to
open their corporate offices in this area due to the
convenience of location.
#3 Flexible workspaces to remain in vogue;
aggressive growth to follow
The flexible workspace segment in the NCR has been
proliferating since 2015. Currently, flexible operators
manage about 1.0 million sq ft (0.09 million sq m) of
office space in the NCR. In our opinion, flexible
workspaces are no longer considered as disruptors but
rather as an integral part of modern-day CRE.
Flexible workspaces started to appear first in the Delhi
CBD around 2015-16 due to the lack of Grade A office
spaces for smaller occupiers. Since 2017, the focus of
operators has changed towards the larger markets of
Gurugram and NOIDA. Players such as Wework,
Cowrks and Goworks have recently leased large floor
plates at strategic locations.
In our opinion, given the high
vacancy in the NCR, developers
should remain aware of the
competition from these flexible
office spaces.
We are currently seeing strong demand from smaller
tenants for collaborative workspaces, and landlords can
redesign their existing space to create options meeting
Figure 5: NCR flexible workspace statistics
Source: Colliers International India Research
7 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
the needs of these tenants.
We recommend that landlords recognise the benefits of
flexible workspace and redesign their office spaces
across their portfolios. We advise landlords and
developers to maximise opportunities by putting
underused spaces to work to offer quality and more
efficient office spaces.
In 2017, we observed that a few developers such as
DLF, Vatika, Supertech and Ascendas alike are also
exploring options to offer flexible workspace facilities.
Considering the traction towards
these flexible workspaces for both
employees and employers, having
an office space in one of these
facilities should play a major role in
employee retention.
We advise new entrants to manage their operations out
of a fully managed flexible workspace in established
micromarkets such as Connaught Place in Delhi and
Cybercity and GCR in Gurugram. Large corporates can
adopt a flex and core strategy. As detailed in our
recent Asia Pacific report The Flexible Workspace
Outlook Report 2018 the concept of the flex and core
leasing model is that an occupier takes space on a long-
term deal for its core operations together with an
agreement with a flexible workspace operator to
accommodate volatility in headcount.
There are several ways in which the flex and core
concept can be adopted, and variations typically revolve
around where the core space is accommodated, that is,
either with an operator or directly with a landlord on a
traditional lease. In either case, cost savings can be
achieved by leveraging a discounted rent through the
operator taking space, in addition to the occupiers’ core
space, and economies of scale on the fit-out.
#4 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to be a
magnet for technology occupiers
The insecurity regarding the continuity of the income tax
benefits has been an area of growing concern for various
stakeholders of this asset class. As detailed in our April
2018 report, Special Economic Zones - Decoding the
prophecy of the upcoming sunset clause, around 40
million sq ft (3.8 million sq m) of new supply is scheduled
across India before the mandatory deadline of 31 March
2020 to qualify for income tax benefits in SEZs.
Notably, many top-notch SEZ
developers have their eyes set on
the NCR market. Ascendas, Tata
Realty and Ireo are coming up with
new developments in Gurugram
while developers such as
Brookfield and DLF are adding new
towers in their existing projects.
Ahead of the sunset clause on income tax rebates, we
saw increased interest among occupiers for SEZ spaces.
Prominent developers also see a great value in
introducing and expanding their SEZ assets to capture
Figure 6: Demand Analysis of SEZs from 2016-2018F
Source: Colliers International India Research
8 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
the market while the timing is right (See: Figure 6).
The NCR has approximately 9.0 million sq ft (0.9 million
sq m) of new supply planned to be developed over the
next five years. More than 70% of the upcoming supply
is concentrated in Gurugram in micromarkets such as
Golf Course Extension Road and Sohna Road. NOIDA
accounts for only 30% of the upcoming supply, which is
primarily concentrated at NOIDA Expressway. According
to our estimates, only 6.0 million sq ft (0.6 million sq m)
is likely to be completed by 2020.
To hedge against rent increases in
their existing facilities, IT/ITeS
occupiers looking to relocate,
consolidate and expand in
Gurugram should consider getting
a good deal in office space
strategically located in the state-of-
the-art SEZ campuses on GCER.
Currently, rents in the upcoming SEZs on Golf Course
Extension Road are in the range of INR55-70 (USD1.00-
1.10) per sq ft per month, while the locations such as
Cyber City and Sohna Road quote INR80-100
(USD1.25-1.50) per sq ft per month. We expect rents to
remain stable given the robust supply pipeline. However,
Cybercity may see upward pressure on rent due to its
premium location and limited supply.
SEZ rents in NOIDA are about 35% cheaper than rents
in Gurugram but the average vacancy rate in NOIDA is
around 5% and the supply pipeline is also limited. We
expect this situation to make it difficult for occupiers to
obtain large contiguous space in the future.
 large corporate office requirements and backend
#5 Gurugram to remain the dominating office operations.
market in NCR
Figure 7: Factors that we expect to help Gurugram
Gurugram, popularly known as Millennium City, has keep its dominance
been capturing about 60% of the total regional office
demand over the past five years. The demand for office
space primarily comes from the technology, financial
and manufacturing sectors which have shifted their
corporate offices from Connaught Place and other parts
of south Delhi area in pursuit of Grade A office space at
affordable rents with good connectivity to the
International Airport and other business districts of Delhi
after the global financial crisis in 2008. Since then the
city has become the favourite corporate office
destination and has been experiencing demand from
companies expanding.

Now with NOIDA gaining momentum, the big

question is whether Gurugram will lose some of its
demand to its neighbour to the east? We had
discussions with market participants and the general
opinion of occupiers is that Gurugram should remain the
preferred city among corporate occupiers. The factors
that should help Gurugram to maintain its dominance in
the NCR’s office landscape are:

Business-friendly environment: Gurugram hosts many

of the Fortune 500 companies from across the globe.
Multi-National Companies (MNCs) find it easier to locate
themselves in Gurugram due to its proximity to the IGI
airport, and the availability of both Grade A buildings and
a quality talent-pool. Haryana's state government was
recently ranked as the second-best state for the ease of
doing business by the Department of Industrial Policy
and Promotion. The government has also planned to
invest in the country's biggest incubator, Global Start-up
Village, which we expect should further accelerate the
start-up businesses in Gurugram.

Unaltered occupier preference: Gurugram is known for

its marquee Grade A buildings in the NCR. Based on our
discussions with market participants, the general opinion
of occupiers is that regardless of the affordable rents and
upcoming commercial supply in NOIDA, commercial real
estate demand in Gurugram is likely to remain robust
over the next three years. Although we cannot ignore the
growing prominence of NOIDA, the availability of a large
talent pool and the large footprint of global companies
should help Gurugram maintain its pivotal position in the
NCR office market.
In our opinion, considering Gurugram’s reputation as a
“corporate hub” of the NCR, new entrants should choose
Gurugram for their front office and corporate
requirements. However, looking at the rising rents, cost
cautious occupiers should start exploring NOIDA for their
SEZ: Office spaces developed under SEZ of India policy
IT: Office space developed under Software Technology Parks
of India (STPI) policy or state government IT/ITeS policy
Commercial: Any other building except SEZ and IT
Source: Colliers International India Research
Infrastructure improvement: The state government
plans to invest about INR100 billion (USD1.48 billion) to
improve the intercity connectivity by building bypasses
and flyovers to bridge the infrastructure development
gap in the millennium city. Looking at recent
developments, it seems that Gurugram will not be far

9 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
behind from NOIDA in terms of infrastructure in the to reach the Jewar Airport. This should further provide
coming years. improved accessibility to office occupiers in this region.

Growth in industrial investments: Investors seem to

#6 NOIDA to transform into an affordable be responding well to government policies and
infrastructure initiatives. During the Uttar Pradesh
commercial hub
Investor's Summit, various industries signed MOUs to
The NOIDA market has historically been the preference
of cost-conscious backend IT companies looking for Figure 8: Factors expected to help NOIDA rise
affordable rents and excellent connectivity with Delhi.
Out of the overall leasing volume in the NCR over the
past five years, NOIDA accounted for roughly 29% of
the total demand. Notwithstanding the traditional image,
the city is also gearing up to host a plethora of MNCs in
upcoming years.

The city witnessed 1.0 million sq ft (0.09 million sq m) of

absorption in Q1 2018 which was almost double than Q1
2017 demand. What is driving the rise in demand for
NOIDA? W e had several informal discussions with
market stakeholders and conclude that the following are
the factors that should contribute to the increase in
demand in NOIDA's CRE.

Increase in commercial supply: A healthy supply of 13

million sq ft (1.2 million sq m) is currently under various
stages of construction across NOIDA. Out of this
upcoming supply, about 62% of projects are in the form
of commercial assets. While the IT sector has been the
dominant occupier so far, with an increasing supply of
Grade A buildings we expect this market to evolve into a
more diverse commercial office hub in the future.

Affordable Rentals: NOIDA has been the affordable

option for the occupiers seeking sub-one-dollar office
space. The average rent quoted by developers in
NOIDA is about INR57 (USD0.87)/sq ft/month. This is
almost 35% cheaper than the INR88 (USD1.40)/sq
ft/month rentals quoted by the Grade A office buildings
in Gurugram.

Enhanced connectivity: In an endeavour to improve

the connectivity of NOIDA and to develop it as an
international business destination, the authorities have
been swiftly working on the ambitious International
Airport at Jewar (55 km or 35 miles from NOIDA’s
CBD)

The state government has recently signed a

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Yamuna
Expressway Industrial Development Authority (YEIDA),
NOIDA and Greater NOIDA Industrial Development
Authorities to fast-track the work on the SEZ: Office spaces inside an SEZ development
IT: Office space limited to IT/ITeS occupiers
greenfield airport. The upcoming airport will probably be Commercial: Non-IT office spaces catering to the corporates
catering to domestic and international routes by 2022-
23. In addition, metro rail service is also being extended Source: Colliers International India Research

10 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
invest in NOIDA, with a cumulative investment
estimated by domestic and MNCs to be about INR130
to INR150 billion (USD1.6 to 1.7 billion). In our opinion,
the growth in industrial activities shall also
simultaneously drive the office market in NOIDA.
#7 Redevelopment – a facelift for Delhi's real
estate market
The Delhi commercial market is one of the top three
expensive rental markets in the country. Historically, the
CBD has been the epicenter of occupiers' interest in the
city, but in recent years the Aerocity micromarket has
emerged as the potential corporate hub of the city. The
rise of Aerocity can be traced to its state-of-the-art
buildings, single-entity ownership, proximity to the IGI
Airport and good connectivity with the both South,
Central Delhi and Gurugram. Owing to these attributes
many MNCs were compelled to re-locate to this
micromarket from the CBD and SBD areas of Delhi. The
phase I of the Aerocity hospitality district includes about
2 million sq ft (0.18 million sq m) of operational office
stock which currently has low-vacancy rate, another 0.5
million sq ft (0.04 million sq m) of supply pipeline under
the phase II of Aerocity Gateway District is to be
expected over the next five years.
We do not foresee any significant supply in other
established micromarkets in Delhi. However, in 2016 the
Government approved the redevelopment of seven
General Pool Residential Accommodation (GPRA)
Colonies. National Buildings Construction Corporation
(NBCC) is the implementing agency for the
redevelopment of Sarojini Nagar, Nauroji Nagar and
Netaji Nagar, while Central Public Works Department
(CPWD) will be the implementing agency for the
redevelopment of Kasturba Nagar, Thyagraj Nagar,
Sriniwaspuri and Mohammadpur. Moreover, the Indian
railways are also looking to monetise the prime land in
the city via a Public Private Participation (PPP)
model.
NBCC's first project in Nauroji
Nagar, supplying about 3.3 million
sq ft (0.3 million sq m) of Grade A
space is already at an advanced
stage of construction. NBCC has
obtained the accreditation of “World
Trade Centre2” for this project.
Due to its prime south location in the city, the first e-
auction witnessed considerable success with bids from
public-sector units such as Power Finance Corporation,
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. and Energy
Efficiency Services. The cumulative area sold was about
0.28 million sq ft (26,000 sq m) of office space. The
average sales price was about INR38,000 (USD587) per
sq ft, which is 8 to10% higher than in Delhi’s CBD. The
second tranche of the e-auction is planned to be
conducted by the end of 2018.
We expect the redevelopment of
these projects to act as a facelift to
the overall Delhi commercial
market, despite the initial buildings
being primarily occupied by single-
tenant state-owned companies,
banks and public-sector units.
In our opinion, the scarce supply situation and trend of
occupiers clearly favouring Grade A buildings gives
developers an enticing opportunity to rebuild their
portfolios by redeveloping and redesigning their old yet
well-located buildings.

2World Trade Center Association is the body which provides

exclusive World Trade Center (WTC) branded properties
worldwide in partnership with local developers

11 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers
International | June 2018
 Primary Author:
413 offices in Surabhi Arora
Senior Associate Director | Research | India

69 countries on +91 98 7175 0808 | surabhi.arora@colliers.com

6 continents Saif Lari | Assistant Manager | Research | NCR

saif.lari@colliers.com
United States: 145
Canada: 28
Latin America: 23
For more information please contact;
Asia Pacific: 86
EMEA: 131 Ritesh Sachdev
Sr. Executive Director | Occupier Services | India
ritesh.sachdev@colliers.com
$2.7 Sanjay Chatrath
billion in
Executive Director | NCR
annual revenue
sanjay.chatrath@colliers.com

2 Vineet Anand
billion square feet Director | Office Services | NCR
under management vineet.anand@colliers.com

15,400
professionals
Colliers International | India
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