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Soft Comput

DOI 10.1007/s00500-017-2591-x

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Valuation of stock loan under uncertain environment


Zhiqiang Zhang1 · Weiqi Liu2,3 · Jianhua Ding1

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017

Abstract In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty the stock at any time prior to the loan maturity by repaying
theory, the valuation of stock loan is investigated. Different the bank the principal plus interest associated to the loan,
from the methods of probability theory, we solve the stock otherwise the borrower will surrender the stock. The stock
loan pricing problem by using the method of uncertain calcu- loan can afford an opportunity to hedge against a financial
lus. Based on the assumption that the underlying asset price market downturn for a stock holder. For example, in the case
follows an uncertain differential equation, we obtain the stock of the stock price goes up, the borrower can choose to repay
loan pricing formulas for uncertain stock model. the loan and take back his or her stock. On the other hand, if
the stock price goes down, the borrower can choose to lose
Keywords Uncertainty theory · Uncertain differential the collateral rather than repaying the loan.
equation · Uncertain stock model · Stock loan The valuation of stock loan has been investigated by many
scholars. The study of valuation of stock loan was pioneered
by Xia and Zhou (2007), they solved the pricing problem
1 Introduction of stock loan under the Black–Scholes model. Then, Zhang
and Zhou (2009) discussed the valuation problem of stock
Valuation of stock loan is a popular problem in financial fields loan with regime switching. Liang et al. (2010) investi-
that has been attracting the attention of both the financial gated the stock loan with automatic termination clause, cap
market participants and academic researchers. Stock loan is and margin. Wong and Wong (2012) derived an analytical
a contract between a borrower and a bank in the case of the pricing formula of stock loan with stochastic volatility and
borrower obtains a loan from the bank with his or her own optimal exercise boundary by means of asymptotic expan-
stock as collateral that gives the borrower the right to regain sion. Pascucci et al. (2013) gave a mathematical analysis and
numerical methods for a partial differential equation model
Communicated by Y. Ni. of a stock loan pricing problem. Cai and Sun (2014) studied
the valuation of stock loans with jump risk.
B Jianhua Ding Above-mentioned studies on valuation of stock loans are
sjdingjianhua@163.com
all within the framework of probability theory. But a lot
Zhiqiang Zhang of surveys showed that in financial practice human’s belief
sjzhangzhiqiang@sxdtdx.edu.cn
degrees usually influence the investors’ judgement and deci-
Weiqi Liu sion making. For example, Kahneman and Tversky (1979)
liuwq@sxu.edu.cn
found that investors often make a nonlinear transformation
1 School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Shanxi of probability as their basis which they based on to make
Datong University, Datong 037009, China decisions. In real complicated financial market, with the cog-
2 Institute of Management and Decision, Shanxi University, nitive resources limitations, many investors usually make
Taiyuan 030006, China their belief degrees of some financial events according to the
3 Faculty of Finance and Banking, Shanxi University of experts’ advise or their knowledge as their basis of decision
Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China making rather than to use the databases of extremely large

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Z. Zhang et al.

size to infer the parameter estimates or probabilities. From applied in other fields. For example, Zhu (2010) introduced
these facts we can see that belief degrees play an impor- uncertain differential equation into optimal control, differ-
tant role in real financial practice. The home bias puzzle ential games with applications to capitalism and resource
also showed that the role of belief degrees in financial prac- extraction problem by using uncertain differential equation
tice is primary. Although many scholars try to explain the were studied by Yang and Gao (2013), and Yang and Gao
home bias puzzle (see Ahearne et al. 2004; Devereux and (2016), respectively.
Saito 1997; Lewis 1999; Ueda 1999), undoubtedly, investors’ In this paper, different from classical stochastic finance
belief degrees play an important part in real financial market. theory, we investigate the valuation of stock loan within the
An axiomatic mathematics to deal with belief degrees framework of uncertainty theory. Based on the assumption
called uncertainty theory was founded by Liu (2007). For that the stock price process follows an uncertain differential
modeling the evolution of phenomena with uncertainty, Liu equation, the stock loan pricing formulas are derived for Liu’s
(2008) gave the concept of uncertain process in 2008. Liu uncertain stock model, and the valuation of stock loans is
(2009) investigated a type of process that is a stationary also discussed under uncertain stock model with periodic
independent increment process whose increments are normal dividends.
uncertain variables. Later, this type of process was named The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In next sec-
Liu process by the academic community. The Liu integral tion, we introduce some useful concepts and theorems of
was also introduced by Liu. The study of uncertain dif- uncertainty theory as needed. In Sect. 3, we investigate the
ferential equation was initiated by Liu (2008). After Liu’s valuation of stock loan for Liu’s uncertain stock model. In
pioneer work, uncertain differential equation was extended Sect. 4, we explore the valuation of stock loan for uncertain
by many researchers and has been widely applied in many stock model with periodic dividends. Finally, we make a brief
fields, including uncertain finance, uncertain control, uncer- conclusion in Sect. 5.
tain differential game and so on.
In classical stochastic finance theory, the underlying asset
price process is assumed to follow the stochastic differential 2 Preliminary
equations. This assumption was challenged by many schol-
ars. Liu (2013) gave a convincing paradox to show that using The following are some useful definitions and theorems of
any stochastic differential equations to describe the stock uncertainty theory as needed.
price process is inappropriate. Liu suggested using uncertain
differential equations to describe the stock price process. Definition 2.1 (Liu 2007) Let Γ be a nonempty set, and let
In 2009, for the first time, uncertain differential equa- L be a σ -algebra over Γ . An uncertain measure is a function
tions were introduced into finance and an uncertain stock M : L → [0, 1] such that
model was presented by Liu (2009). The pricing problem of
Axiom 1 (Normality Axiom) M{Γ } = 1 for the universal
European option, American option and geometric average
set Γ ;
Asian option for Liu’s uncertain stock model was solved
by Liu (2009), Chen (2011) and Zhang and Liu (2014), Axiom 2 (Duality Axiom) M{Λ}+M{Λc } = 1 for any event
respectively. And Zhang et al. (2016b) derived the pricing Λ;
formulas of power option for Liu’s uncertain stock model.
Many scholars also proposed other uncertain stock models, Axiom 3 (Subadditivity Axiom) For every countable seque-
for example, Peng and Yao (2011) proposed an uncertain nce of events {Λi } we have
mean-reverting stock model, Chen et al. (2013) proposed a ∞ 
 ∞

stock model with periodic dividends and derived the pricing
M Λi ≤ M{Λi }. (2.1)
formulas for this type of model. Yao (2015a) obtained the
i=1 i=1
no-arbitrage determinant theorems for this type of uncertain
stock model. In 2015, based on the uncertain stock model A set Λ ∈ L is called an event. The uncertain measure
with jump, the problem of option pricing was discussed by M{Λ} indicates the degree of belief that Λ will occur. The
Ji and Zhou (2015). Chen and Gao (2013) proposed some triplet (Γ, L, M) is called an uncertainty space. In order to
uncertain interest term structure model. Yao (2015b) applied obtain an uncertain measure of compound event, a product
uncertain contour process to the stock model with floating uncertain measure was defined by Liu (2009).
interest rate. The problem of valuing interest option was
discussed by Zhang et al. (2016a). Using the uncertain dif- Axiom 4 (Product Axiom) Let (Γk , Lk , Mk ) be uncertainty
ferential equation to establish the exchange rate model, the spaces for k = 1, 2, . . . The product uncertain measure M is
problem of currency option pricing was studied by Liu et al. an uncertain measure on the product σ -algebra L1 ×L2 ×· · ·
(2015). Besides, uncertain differential equation also has been satisfying

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Valuation of stock loan under uncertain environment
∞  ∞
  Theorem 2.3 (Liu 2010) Let ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , ξn be independent
M Λk = Mk {Λk } (2.2) uncertain variables with regular uncertainty distributions
k=1 k=1
1 , 2 , . . . , n , respectively. If the function f (x1 , x2 , . . . ,
where Λk are arbitrarily chosen events from Lk for k = xn ) is strictly increasing with respect to x1 , x2 , . . . , xm and
1, 2, . . ., respectively. strictly decreasing with respect to xm+1 , xm+2 , . . . , xn , then
the uncertain variable
Definition 2.2 (Liu 2007) An uncertain variable is a mea-
surable function from an uncertainty space (Γ, L, M) to the
ξ = f (ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , ξn ) (2.9)
set of real numbers, i.e., {ξ ∈ B} is an event for any Borel
set B.
has an inverse uncertainty distribution
Definition 2.3 (Liu 2007) The uncertainty distribution  of
an uncertain variable ξ is defined by Ψ −1 (α) = f (−1 −1
1 (α), . . . , m (α),

(x) = M{ξ ≤ x} (2.3) ×−1 −1


m+1 (1 − α), . . . , n (1 − α)). (2.10)

for any real number x. Liu and Ha (2010) proved that the uncertain variable ξ =
f (ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , ξn ) has an expected value
Definition 2.4 (Liu 2007) An uncertain variable ξ is called
normal if it has a normal uncertainty distribution
1
  E[ξ ] = f (−1 −1
1 (α), . . . , m (α),
π(e − x) −1 0
(x) = 1 + exp √ (2.4)
3σ ×−1 −1
m+1 (1 − α), . . . , n (1 − α))dα. (2.11)

denoted by N (e, σ ) where e and σ are real numbers with An uncertain process is a sequence of uncertain variables
σ > 0. indexed by a totally ordered set T . A formal definition is
Definition 2.5 (Liu 2010) An uncertainty distribution (x) given below.
is said to be regular if it is a continuous and strictly increasing
function with respect to x at which 0 < (x) < 1, and Definition 2.8 (Liu 2008) Let (Γ, L, M) be an uncertainty
space and let T be a totally ordered set (e.g., time). An uncer-
lim (x) = 0, lim (x) = 1. (2.5) tain process is a function X t (γ ) from T × (Γ, L, M) to the
x→−∞ x→+∞
set of real numbers such that {X t ∈ B} is an event for any
Definition 2.6 (Liu 2010) Let ξ be an uncertain variable with Borel set B at each time t.
regular uncertainty distribution (x). Then the inverse func-
tion −1 (α) is called the inverse uncertainty distribution of ξ . Definition 2.9 (Liu 2009) An uncertain process Ct is said to
be a Liu process if
Definition 2.7 (Liu 2007) Let ξ be an uncertain variable.
Then the expected value of ξ is defined by (i) C0 = 0 and almost all sample paths are Lipschitz con-

+∞
0 tinuous,
E[ξ ] = M{ξ ≥ r }dr − M{ξ ≤ r }dr (2.6) (ii) Ct has stationary and independent increments,
0 −∞ (iii) every increment Cs+t − Cs is a normal uncertain vari-
provided that at least one of the two integrals is finite. able with expected value 0 and variance t 2 .

Theorem 2.1 (Liu 2007) Let ξ be an uncertain variable with In order to deal with the integration and differentiation of
uncertainty distribution . If the expected value exists, then uncertain processes, Liu (2009) proposed an uncertain inte-

+∞
0 gral with respect to Liu process.
E[ξ ] = (1 − (x))dx − (x)dx. (2.7)
0 −∞ Definition 2.10 (Liu 2009) Let X t be an uncertain process
and Ct be a Liu process. For any partition of closed interval
Theorem 2.2 (Liu 2010) Let ξ be an uncertain variable with
regular uncertainty distribution . Then [a, b] with a = t1 < t2 < · · · < tk+1 = b, the mesh is
defined as

1
E[ξ ] = −1 (α)dα. (2.8)  = max |ti+1 − ti |.
0 1≤i≤k

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Z. Zhang et al.

Then the Liu integral of X t is defined as Theorem 2.5 (Yao and Chen 2013) Let X t and X tα be the
solution and α-path of the uncertain differential equation

b 
k
X t dCt = lim X ti (Cti+1 − Cti ) (2.12) dX t = f (t, X t )dt + g(t, X t )dCt , (2.22)
a →0
i=1

provided that the limit exists almost surely and is finite. In respectively. Then the solution X t has an inverse uncertainty
this case, the uncertain process X t is said to be Liu integrable. distribution

Definition 2.11 (Chen and Ralescu 2013) Let Ct be a Liu t−1 (α) = X tα . (2.23)
process and let Z t be an uncertain process. If there exist
uncertain processes μt and σt such that Theorem 2.6 (Yao 2013) Let X t and X tα be the solution and


α-path of the uncertain differential equation
t t
Zt = Z0 + μs ds + σs dCs (2.13)
0 0 dX t = f (t, X t )dt + g(t, X t )dCt , (2.24)

for any t ≥ 0, then Z t is called a Liu process with drift μt and


respectively. Then for any time s > 0 and strictly increasing
diffusion σt . Furthermore, Z t has an uncertain differential
function J (x), the supremum
dZ t = μt dt + σt dCt . (2.14)
sup J (X t ) (2.25)
0≤t≤s
Liu (2009) verified the fundamental theorem of uncertain
calculus, i.e., for a Liu process Ct and a continuous differen- has an inverse uncertainty distribution
tiable function h(t, c), the uncertain process Z t = h(t, Ct )
is differentiable and has a Liu differential s−1 (α) = sup J (X tα ); (2.26)
0≤t≤s
∂h ∂h
dZ t = (t, Ct )dt + (t, Ct )dCt . (2.15)
∂t ∂c and the infimum

Definition 2.12 (Yao and Chen 2013) Let α be a number


inf J (X t ) (2.27)
with 0 < α < 1. An uncertain differential equation 0≤t≤s

dX t = f (t, X t )dt + g(t, X t )dCt (2.16) has an inverse uncertainty distribution

is said to have an α-path X tα if it solves the corresponding s−1 (α) = inf J (X tα ). (2.28)
0≤t≤s
ordinary differential equation

dX tα = f (t, X tα )dt + |g(t, X tα )|−1 (α)dt (2.17)


3 Valuation of stock loan for Liu’s uncertain stock
model
where −1 (α) is the inverse standard normal uncertainty
distribution, i.e.,
Different from classical stochastic finance theory, Liu (2009)
√ suggested to describe the stock price process by using an
−1 3 α
 (α) = ln . (2.18) uncertain differential equation and proposed an uncertain
π 1−α stock model as follows
Theorem 2.4 (Yao and Chen 2013) Let X t and X tα be the
dX t = r X t dt
solution and α-path of the uncertain differential equation (3.1)
dSt = μSt dt + σ St dCt
dX t = f (t, X t )dt + g(t, X t )dCt , (2.19)
where X t is the bond price, St is the stock price, r is the
riskless interest rate, μ is the log-drift, σ is the log-diffusion,
respectively. Then
and Ct is a Liu process.
It follows from the Eq. (3.1) that the stock price is
M X t ≤ X tα , ∀t = α, (2.20)

M X t > X tα , ∀t = 1 − α. (2.21) St = S0 exp(μt + σ Ct ) (3.2)

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Valuation of stock loan under uncertain environment

whose inverse uncertainty distribution is sup exp(−r t)[St − K exp(θ t)]+ has an inverse uncertainty
 √  0≤t≤T
σt 3 α distribution
−1
t (α) = S0 exp μt + ln . (3.3)
π 1−α  √  +
σt 3 α
sup exp(−r t) S0 exp μt+ ln −K exp(θ t) .
0≤t≤T π 1−α
The stock loan problem can be described as follows. A
borrower obtains amount K from a bank with one share of (3.8)
his or her stock as collateral. After paying a service fee c
(0 < c < K ) to the bank, the borrower receives the amount Therefore, the value of the stock loan is
(K − c). The borrower has the right to regain the stock at any
  √ 
1 σt 3 α
time prior to the loan maturity T by repaying the bank the f = sup exp(−r t) S0 exp μt + ln
principal plus interest associated to the loan that is K exp(θ t), 0 0≤t≤T π 1−α
where θ > r is the loan interest rate. This means that the +
borrower pays S0 − (K − c) to buy an American option with −K exp(θ t) dα. (3.9)
a time-varying strike price K exp(θ t) and maturity T at time
0. The present value of the payoff of the borrower is

sup exp(−r t)[St − K exp(θ t)]+ . (3.4) Example 3.1 Suppose that the stock price follows the uncer-
0≤t≤T
tain stock model (3.1) with parameters μ = 0.07 and
Thus, the value of the stock loan should be the expected σ = 0.35. Assume the riskless interest rate r = 0.06, the
present value of the payoff. initial stock price S0 = 40, the loan amount K = 28, loan
interest rate θ = 0.08, the maturity time T = 1. By the for-
Definition 3.1 Assume a stock loan has loan amount K , loan mula of Theorem 3.1, we can calculate out that the value of
interest rate θ and loan maturity T . Let f denote the value stock loan is
of the stock loan. Then the value of the stock loan is
  f = 13.96.
 +
f = E sup exp(−r t) St − K exp(θ t) . (3.5)
0≤t≤T
4 Valuation of stock loan with periodic dividends
For rationally determining the parameters K , c and θ , the
evaluation of the value of the stock loan is needed. In this In above section, we do not consider the case of the stock with
paper, our main goal is to evaluate the stock loan value defined dividends. In most cases, the dividends are paid by enterprises
in (3.5) and (4.4). that will affect the price of their stock. Chen et al. (2013)
proposed a stock model with periodic dividends to describe
Theorem 3.1 Assume a stock loan for the stock model (3.1) the case of the equity pays a dividend of a fraction δ of the
has loan amount K , loan interest rate θ and loan maturity stock price at deterministic T1 , T2 , . . . , the stock model can
T . Then the value of the stock loan is be written as follows

  √ 
1 σt 3 α X t = X 0 exp(r t)
f = sup exp(−r t) S0 exp μt + ln (4.1)
0 0≤t≤T π 1−α St = S0 (1 − δ)n[t] exp(μt + σ Ct )
+
where X t is the bond price, St is the stock price, r is the
−K exp(θ t) dα. (3.6) riskless interest rate, μ is the expected return rate, σ is the
volatility, and Ct is a Liu process, n[t] = max{i : Ti ≤ t} is
Proof The uncertain differential equation dSt = μSt dt + the number of dividend payments made by time t. Thus, the
σ St dCt has an α-path value of dividends at time t can be described by
  It = S0 exp(μt + σ Ct ) − S0 (1 − δ) exp(μt + σ Ct )(4.2)
n[t]
Stα = S0 exp μt + σ −1 (α)t (3.7) 
= S0 1 − (1 − δ) n[t]
exp(μt + σ Ct ).
where −1 (α) is the inverse standard normal uncertainty
Assume the dividends associated to the stock are gained by
distribution.
both borrower and bank with equal half amount of the divi-
Since J (x) = exp(−r t)[x − K exp(θ t)]+ is an increasing
dends. Then the present value of the payoff of the borrower
function, it follows from Theorem2.6 that sup J (St ) =
0≤t≤T is

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Z. Zhang et al.

 +   √ 
1 1   σt 3 α
sup exp(−r t) St + It − K exp(θ t) . (4.3) S0 1 + (1 − δ)n[t]
exp μt + ln
0≤t≤T 2 2 π 1−α
+
The value of the stock loan should be the expected present
−K exp(θ t) . (4.8)
value of the payoff of the borrower. Thus, the stock loan value
is given by the definition as below.
Definition 4.1 Assume dividends associated to the stock are Therefore, the value of the stock loan is
gained by both borrower and bank with equal half amount of

1
the dividends, and the stock loan has loan amount K , loan
f = sup exp(−r t)
interest rate θ and loan maturity T . Let f denote the value 0 0≤t≤T
of the stock loan. Then the value of the stock loan is   √ 
1   σt 3 α
  +  S0 1 + (1 − δ)n[t]
exp μt + ln
1 2 π 1−α
f = E sup exp(−r t) St + It − K exp(θ t) . +
0≤t≤T 2
(4.4) −K exp(θ t) dα. (4.9)

Theorem 4.1 Assume a stock loan for the stock model (4.1)

has loan amount K , loan interest rate θ and loan maturity


T . Then the value of the stock loan is Example 4.1 Suppose that the stock price follows the uncer-

1 tain stock model (4.1), the parameters are μ = 0.07,
f = sup exp(−r t) σ = 0.35 and δ = 0.05. Assume the riskless interest rate

0 0≤t≤T
  r = 0.06, the initial stock price S0 = 40, the loan amount

1   σt 3 α K = 28, loan interest rate θ = 0.08, the maturity time T = 1,
S0 1 + (1 − δ)n[t]
exp μt + ln and the dividend are paid at deterministic times T1 = 0.5 and
2 π 1−α
+ T2 = 1. By the formula of Theorem 4.1, we can calculate out
that the value of stock loan is
−K exp(θ t) dα. (4.5)
f = 13.61.
Proof As we know, Ct has an inverse uncertainty distribution

t 3 α
−1
t (α) = ln . (4.6) 5 Conclusions
π 1−α
1 1   In this paper, we investigated the valuation of stock loan
St + It = S0 1 + (1 − δ)n[t] exp(μt + σ Ct ) is within the framework of uncertainty theory. Based on the
2 2
1 assumption that the underlying stock price follows the geo-
increasing with respect to Ct , hence St + It has an inverse metric Liu process, the formulas of price of stock loan for
2
uncertainty distribution Liu’s uncertain stock model and the stock model with peri-
1   odic dividends proposed by Chen, Liu and Ralescu were
Ψt−1 (α) =S0 1 + (1 − δ)n[t] exp(μt + σ −1
t (α)) derived with the method of uncertain calculus.
2  

1   σt 3 α Compliance with ethical standards
= S0 1 + (1 − δ)n[t]
exp μt + ln .
2 π 1−α
Conflict of interest The authors declare that there is no conflict of
(4.7) interests regarding the publication of this paper.

Since J (x) = exp(−r t)[x − K exp(θ t)]+ is an increasing



Ethical approval This article does not contain any studies with human
participants or animals performed by any of the authors.
function, it follows from Theorem 2.6 that sup J St +
0≤t≤T
1  1
It = sup exp(−r t)[St + It − K exp(θ t)]+ has an
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