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Since China was originally invited and accepted (it has participated in the past two
RIMPAC exercises) it is not in a position to be critical of other participants, including
Vietnam. China has only itself to blame for having the U.S. invitation withdrawn.
Besides, if China criticized Vietnam it would also have to criticize other ASEAN
members who are participating.
Q3. Will China undertake any response to RIMPC over the next five weeks? Is it likely
China will carry out a tit-for-tat?
ANSWER: RIMPAC is being held far from the South China Sea in the waters near
Hawaii and further east in the waters off California. As a result of Secretary of
Defence James Mattis’ recent visit to China there was agreement to keep the
channels of military contacts open.
Since China participated in RIMPAC in the past, and may do so again in the future,
China will not want to “queer the pitch” (undermine or spoil RIMPAC). China will not
respond in a negative way.
RIMPAC is the largest multinational naval exercise in the world. China cannot mount
a counter-naval exercise of this magnitude at short notice. China has already carried
out a large-scale naval exercise off Hainan island earlier this year.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.