DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY STUDY

JULY 2018

Prepared for:
Hanabusa for Governor
 BACKGROUND & METHODOLOGY
Anthology’s Qmark Research Group conducted a quantitative study in the form of mixed mode online
and telephone survey. The field work began on June 21 and ended on July 6, 2018. A total of 518
interviews were completed.

The Internet sample was provided by two online sampling companies, Research Now and SSI. The
telephone sample was provided by the research team using a combination of voter contact lists and
random digit dialing (calling both mobile and landline numbers). Each respondent was screened to
ensure they were at least 18 years of age, a fulltime resident of Hawaii and were likely to vote using a
Democratic Party ballot in the upcoming primary election in August 2018.

This study design called for proportional to population sampling so that the overall distribution of
interviews basically mirrors the percentage of voters on each island.

The resulting data was statistically weighted for island and respondent ethnicity based on population
estimates of voting adults. The margin of error for a total sample of this size (n=518) is +/- 4.39
percentage points with a 95% confidence level.

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 SECTION – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY – GOVERNOR’S RACE
Registered voters who indicated they would likely select the Democratic ballot in the upcoming Primary
Election were asked who they would support for Governor if their two choices were David Ige and
Colleen Hanabusa. The table below shows the overall results as well as a projection based on a low-
voter turnout scenario.

SELECT DEMOCRATIC BALLOT LOW TURNOUT

Colleen Hanabusa 57% 60%
David Ige 31% 31%
Swing Vote 12% 9%

The results show Colleen Hanabusa leading the incumbent David Ige by 26-points in the current study.
Even if Ige were to somehow acquire all the undecided/ swing vote he would still come up considerably
short in this race.

• Hanabusa holds a staggering 45-point advantage (66% vs 21%) over Ige on the Neighbor
Islands while her lead on Oahu is also impressive at 19-points (54% vs 35%).

• Hanabusa dominates Ige among each of the four major ethnic voting blocs in the State.

In a low-voter turnout scenario, Hanabusa increases her advantage over Ige by three additional points.

The table below tracks the results over the course of the study. Please note at the time of the
benchmark Clayton Hee was a potential candidate and was included in the horserace question thus
impacting the proportions in the May study.
60% 57%

52%

50%

40%

31%
Hanabusa
30%
Ige
23%
Undecided
20%
19%

10%
12%

0%
MAY JULY

When the results are tracked we see Hanabusa increasing her share of the vote by five-points while Ige
rises eight-points. The Undecided vote has fallen seven-points as more voters appear to be making
their decision as far as this race is concerned.

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 DEGREE OF SUPPORT
In this next section of the study those who selected a candidate in the prior section were asked to rate
their level of support at this present time.

41%
58%

Strong
Soft
40% Weak
27%

15% 19%

HANABUSA IGE
The results show that Hanabusa is further along in solidifying her base than is Ige. Currently, 58% of
those who indicate they will likely vote for Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic Primary say their
support for her is strong at this time. Twenty-seven percent indicate they are soft supporters at this
point while we would classify the remaining 15% as weak.

The numbers for Ige are not as solid. Currently, two in five (40%) Ige voters are soft in their support for
the candidate. Another 19% of this segment would be classified as being weak at this point for Ige.
Forty-one percent are solidly behind David Ige in the race for Governor.

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 TARGET SEGMENT
Usually at this point the targeted segment would be undecided voters. But in this particular race based
on the survey results over the last two reporting periods Hanabusa can win by solidifying her base. In
the table below we provide a profile of her soft/ weak supporters.

Soft/ Weak - Hanabusa COMMENTS

ISLAND
Oahu 68%
Big Island 14%
Maui County 14%
Kauai 4%
OAHU
Metro HNL 32%
East HNL 13%
Windward/ North Shore 16%
Central 24%
West 16%
IDEOLOGY
Liberal 75% Majority of those in this segment are liberals
Conservative 25%
OWN RESIDENCE 62% Majority own their primary residence
EMPLOYED FULL-TIME 65% Most are active in the workforce
UNION HOUSEHOLD 34% Most reside in a household without a union member
BORN IN HAWAII 61% Most are locals, born and raised in Hawaii.
COLLEGE GRADUTATE 65% Majority are college graduates.
AGE 45.34 Average age is in their mid 40s.
ETHNICITY
Caucasian 33%
Japanese 26%
Hawaiian 17%
Filipino 9%
HSE INCOME
< $50K 23%
$50K-$100K 33%
$100K+ 37%
Refused 7%
GENDER
Male 35% Majority of targeted segment are females.
Female 65%

SECTION – FAVORABILITY SCORE

In this section of the study we examine the favorability score for each of the potential candidates for
Governor on the Democratic side of the ballot. The table below highlights the percent that had a
favorable or unfavorable view of each as well as those who had heard of them but have no real opinion
one way or the other. In addition to these percent results a favorability ratio was also computed which
shows the number of favorable responses for every one unfavorable response. At the far-right column
a mean or average score was also computed based on a three-point scale (favorable=3, no opinion=2,
unfavorable=1). The higher the mean score the more favorable the overall perception.

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 Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Ratio MEAN
Fav:Unfav
Hanabusa 68% 17% 13% 4.00:1 2.53
Ige 52% 33% 15% 1.57:1 2.19

The research shows that likely voters in the Democratic Primary have already for the most part made
up their minds regarding how they perceive the two candidates seeking the party’s nomination for
Governor. This is evidenced by the relatively small number of respondents who have heard of David
Ige (15%) and Colleen Hanabusa (13%) but have yet to form an opinion.

As far as Colleen Hanabusa is concerned, 68% have a favorable opinion of her while 17% hold a
negative view of the candidate. This results in a favorability ratio of 4.00 favorable responses for every
one unfavorable response. Her mean or average score in this exercise is a 2.53 out of a possible 3.00,
the highest among the candidates tested.

• Among undecided voters, 42% have a favorable view of Hanabusa while 19% have a negative
perception of her. A third (31%) of the swing vote have heard of her but have yet to form a solid
opinion.

• Hanabusa is looked upon more favorably on the Neighbor Islands (74% favorable) than she is
on Oahu (65% favorable) though her Oahu numbers are still solid.

• Hanabusa’s appeal is stronger among less educated voters. For example, 21% of those with a
college degree currently hold a negative opinion of Collen Hanabusa. As a point of comparison,
this proportion falls to 10% among those who do not have a college degree.

Half (52%) of the voters polled currently have a favorable opinion of David Ige while a third (33%) of
likely Democratic Primary voters think negatively of him. This results in a favorability ratio of 1.57
favorable responses for every one unfavorable response. His mean or average score is a 2.19 out of a
possible 3.00.

• Among undecided voters, 20% have an unfavorable opinion of David Ige while 45% of this
segment thinks favorably of him.

• When the results for this section are segmented to show the target segment (soft/ weak
Hanabusa supporters), we find among this group a third (32%) has a positive opinion of David
Ige while half (46%) thinks negatively of him. Twenty-three percent of soft/ weak Hanabusa
supporters have yet to form a solid opinion of Ige. The table below tracks the favorability ratio
over the last two reporting periods.

MAY JULY
Hanabusa 3.36:1 4.00:1
Ige 1.00:1 1.57:1

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 When the favorability ratios are compared we find both candidates for Governor making gains in voter
perception as they roll out their media campaigns.

SECTION – PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS

OVERALL COMMENTS
ISLAND
Oahu 70% Weighted to estimates of adults 18+
Big Island 13%
Maui County 11%
Kauai 5%
OAHU
Metro HNL 33%
East HNL 13%
Windward/ North Shore 13%
Central 18%
West 23%
VOTE HISTORY
All/Most 80%
Some/Few 16%
1st Time voter 3%
POLITICAL PARTY
Democrat 85%
Independent 9%
Republican 3%
IDEOLOGY
Liberal 66% Most consider themselves to be leaning liberals.
Conservative 24%
EMPLOYED FULL-TIME 62% Most are currently employed.
COLLEGE GRADUATE 63% Majority are college graduates.
UNION HOUSEHOLD 39%
BORN IN HAWAII 66% Two-thirds were born and raised in Hawaii.
RESIDENCE
Own 64%
Rent 33%
AGE 46.44
ETHNICITY
Caucasian 29% Weighted to estimates of adults 18+ by island.
Japanese 28%
Hawaiian 19%
Filipino 12%
HSE INCOME
< $50K 25%
$50K-$100K 38%
$100K+ 29%
Refused 8%
GENDER
Male 45% Targeted 50/50 split.
Female 55%

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