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COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM
Transforming the Physical Economy with Information
Michael Mandel
Bret Swanson
March 2017
THE COMING
PRODUCTIVITY BOOM
Transforming the Physical Economy with Information
CONTENTS
THE COMING PRODUCTIVITY BOOM: Transforming the Physical Economy with Information . . page 4
PREVAILING VIEWS ON PRODUCTIVITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 8
DEFINING THE DIGITAL VERSUS PHYSICAL ECONOMY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 9
MAKING THE PHYSICAL ECONOMY PRODUCTIVE AGAIN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 10
Personal Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 10
Energy Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 12
Education and Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 13
Retail, Wholesale, and Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 14
Manufacturing and the New IT Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 16
Healthcare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 18
OPTIMISTIC SIGNS IN THE CLOUD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 22
PROJECTING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 24
THE FUTURE OF JOB GROWTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 25
PUBLIC POLICY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .page 26
Empowered People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .page 26
Innovation Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 27
Entrepreneurial Business Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .page 28
CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 30
APPENDIX: Projecting the Potential Productivity Gains from the New IT Revolution . . . . . . . . . page 31
NOTES for “Prevailing Views on Productivity” on page 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 35
ENDNOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . page 35
About
the Authors
Driving a
Productivity Boom
that Benefits
All Americans
I
t is amazing how many of our nation’s slowed. To reignite economic growth, we need
biggest challenges can be addressed by a to accelerate either the size of our workforce or
simple formula: faster growth more broadly its productivity. And since simple demograph-
shared. From infrastructure to healthcare, edu- ics limits the growth of our workforce, the great
cation to national security, crime to creativity, American economic imperative is to accelerate
a bigger pie and a wider winner’s circle go far productivity.
towards solving them. There is good news. With the arrival of
A simple comparison of potential growth powerful new technologies, we stand on the
rates tells the story. At the current expected verge of a productivity boom. Just as network-
growth rate of 2% annually, the country will ing computers accelerated productivity and
struggle to meet its obligations and invest in growth in the 1990s, innovations in mobility,
the future. But if growth accelerates to 2.7% sensors, analytics, and artificial intelligence
annually, as this paper’s analysts project, it promise to quicken the pace of growth and
will add a cumulative $8.6 trillion in wages and create myriad new opportunities for innovators,
salaries over the next 15 years (measured in entrepreneurs, and consumers.
2016 dollars).
There is good news. With the arrival of powerful new
And while Americans will have more to
technologies, we stand on the verge of a productivity
spend on meeting their needs, the government
boom.
will have more funding to help out. Federal reve-
nues will go up by an added $3.9 trillion without The Technology CEO Council commis-
any increase in federal taxes as a share of GDP. sioned this analysis to better understand how
Some of that will go to cutting the debt, while new technologies can catalyze growth and
still leaving additional revenue for other needs, what policy makers can do to accelerate these
such as infrastructure and security. (These positive trends while making sure their benefits
figures are based on projections and analysis are realized by more Americans. We believe
developed in this paper.) smart public policies will hasten the diffusion
Unfortunately, over the past few decades of these technologies and enable innovation,
the pace of economic growth around the world entrepreneurship and growth. Policy innova-
has slowed. Whereas U.S. economic growth tions are likewise critical to maximizing the
averaged 3.3% in the 1980s and 3.4% in the number of citizens able to reap the rewards of
1990s, it fell to just 1.6% in the 2000s and only these extraordinary opportunities.
2.0% so far this decade. At the same time in For all the challenges facing our nation
more developed economies such as the United and our world, solutions exist. Many will require
States, this more-slowly-rising tide has lifted tough choices and hard work, but the oppor-
fewer boats than in the past. The result? Frus- tunities are there. We are most excited to lead
tration, pessimism, stagnation. innovative organizations creating many of these
emerging solutions, and we are quite eager
We can do better. to assist with policy makers around the world
Economic output is the product of two factors: working to bring them to fruition.
total hours worked times productivity of the COMING
workforce. Growth occurs when these factors PRODUCTIVITY
The Technology CEO Council BOOM
increase, yet over the past decades both have page 1
Executive ● This “information gap” is a key source of
Summary recent economic stagnation and the produc-
tivity paradox, where many workers seem
not to have benefited from apparent rapid
technological advances. Three-quarters of
The Information Age is not over. the private sector—the physical economy—is
It has barely begun. operating well below its potential, dragging
down growth and capping living standards.
●E
mployment growth in the digital sector has ●B
etter tax policy, for example, can encour-
modestly outpaced employment growth in age domestic investment and the allocation
the physical sector, despite the big edge in of capital into more cutting-edge projects
productivity growth for digital industries. and firms. Closing the information gap also
This suggests that we can both achieve will demand the ability of regulators in the
higher living standards and create good new physical industries—from the Food and
jobs. The notion that automation is the key Drug Administration to the Department
enemy of jobs is wrong. Over the medium of Transportation, and every agency in
and long terms, productivity is good for between—to embrace innovation and tech-
employment. nological change. Mobilizing information to
●H
ow much could these IT-related invest- dramatically improve education and training
is imperative if we want our citizens to fully
ments add to economic growth? Our
leverage and benefit from these emerging
assessment, based on an analysis of
opportunities. Encouraging investment in
recent history, suggests this transforma-
communications networks, which are the
tion could boost annual economic growth
foundation of most of these new capabili-
by 0.7 percentage points over the next
ties, is also a crucial priority. The free flow
15 years. That may not sound like much,
of capital, goods, services, and data around
but it would add $2.7 trillion to annual
the world is as essential as ever to innovation
U.S. economic output by 2031, in 2016
and productivity.
dollars. Wages and salary payments to
workers would increase by a cumulative ● L aunching this new productivity boom thus
$8.6 trillion over the next 15 years. Federal demands a new, pro-innovation focus of
revenues over the period would grow by a public policy.
cumulative $3.9 trillion, helping to pay for
Social Security and Medicare. State and
local revenues would rise by a cumulative
$1.9 trillion, all without increasing the tax
COMING
share of GDP. PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM
page 3
The Coming What’s more, top economists have put
Productivity Boom the blame for the slowdown squarely on IT.
“The slowdown,” notes productivity expert
John Fernald of the Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco, “is located in industries that
Transforming the Physical produce information technology (IT) or that use
Economy with Information IT intensively, consistent with a return to normal
productivity growth after nearly a decade of
exceptional IT-fueled gains.”2
I
n a recent book on the history and future of At the same time, job growth has stalled
innovation, a well-known economist argues in many industrialized countries. The United
that information technology is a spent States and other industrialized nations, the
force.1 Computers and networks just aren’t as story goes, appear to be stuck in the worst of
powerful as previous inventions, he argues, all possible worlds, where innovation and the
and the United States should expect at least 25 information revolution are disrupting industries
years of relative stagnation. Whereas electri- and destroying jobs, without giving workers
fication transformed most every industry and the benefits of higher productivity growth and
household, the economist argues, information rising living standards.
technology is unlikely to improve life outside
of the narrow realms of news, finance, and Accelerating Atoms With Bits
entertainment. “We don’t eat computers or We are far more optimistic. The problem is not that we
wear them or drive to work in them or let them have too much innovation and investment in IT. The
cut our hair,” he writes. problem is that we don’t have enough in the right places.
He and like-minded pessimists find Far from nearing its end, the Information Age may give us
support for their thesis in the recent slowdown its most powerful and widespread economic benefits in
of productivity growth in the United States and the years ahead.3
around the world (see Figure 1). Despite the The surprising fact is that most com-
increasingly prominent role of smartphones panies in the U.S. economy are not taking
and the Internet in our daily lives, labor produc- full advantage of the power of information
tivity growth, averaged over the past 10 years, technology. Even today, the bulk of infotech
has plummeted. investment—including software—is made in
2%
1%
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM 0%
page 4
figure 2. INVESTMENT IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND SOFTWARE
$400,000
■ digital industries
$300,000
IT investment, millions of U.S. dollars
■ physical industries
$100,000
$0
industries where the output is primarily digital: determinant of wages and living standards.
tech, content, finance and insurance, and The faster productivity grows, the larger the
professional and technical services. By our economic pie grows. Higher productivity allows
estimate, these digital industries account for us to create a safety net for the less fortunate;
70% of U.S. private-sector infotech investment invest in infrastructure and higher environmen-
(see Figure 2). The rest of the economy—the tal standards; pay for retirement and healthcare
physical industries—account for only 30% of for the elderly; and generally make life easier for
infotech investment.4 everyone.
These figures—based on official sta- Conversely, if we get stuck in a world of
tistics from the Bureau of Economic Analy- slow productivity growth, we face some tough
sis—do much to explain our current economic choices. With a fixed or slow-growing economic
conundrum. The physical industries—such as pie, the only way to make one group better off is
manufacturing, construction, mining, wholesale to make another group worse off. Politics turns
and retail trade, utilities, healthcare, hotels, mean and nasty.
restaurants, transportation—employ roughly Up to now, the digital industries—which
75% of the private-sector workforce, and form make up about 30% of private-sector economic
the core of our economy. Yet they are lagging output—have produced far more productivity
in the infotech investment—and the business gains and innovation than the physical indus-
model innovation that IT often empowers— tries. From 2000 to 2015, the digital industries
needed to generate productivity growth. This generated productivity growth of 2.7% per year,
“information gap” is a key source of recent compared to just 0.7% for physical industries
economic stagnation and the so-called produc- (see Figure 3). And according to new data from
tivity paradox. the National Science Foundation, digital indus-
COMING
Economics tells us that productivity, or tries were twice as likely to innovate compared PRODUCTIVITY
output per hour, is the single most important to physical industries—15% of companies in BOOM
page 5
figure 3. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: DIGITAL VS. PHYSICAL
1.6
1.5
■ digital industries
Real value added per full-time employee. Index: 2000 = 1
1.4
1.3
■ physical industries
1.1
1.0
0.9
digital industries introduced a new or signifi- intelligence (AI), robotics, 3D printing, and
cantly improved product or service between widespread use of machine-to-machine (M2M)
2009 and 2011, compared to 8% of companies mobile communications.
in physical industries.5 Increasingly we do wear computers—
In a surprise to many, these productivity on our wrists and soon on our skin and our
gains in the digital sector have not led to job corneas. Increasingly we do drive comput-
losses. To the contrary: The digital sector as ers—today’s cars contain more than 100 silicon
a whole has shown substantial job gains, as chips, and tomorrow’s cars will be “the most
falling costs and prices have led to increased powerful computers you will ever own.”6 We
demand for the output of the digital sector. do eat them—in the form of radically improved
From 1996 to 2016, employment in the digi- agriculture, aided by genetic engineering and
tal sector grew by 29% (see Figure 4). Even satellites, and even in the form of wireless cam-
omitting administrative and support service era pills that we ingest to scope our intestines.7
workers (which includes temporary employees), Our pessimistic economist’s descrip-
employment in the digital sector still grew by tions of information technology don’t capture
25%. By contrast, jobs in the physical sector its true value or its elastic reach. He thinks, for
rose by just 20% in that 20-year stretch. instance, that because bar codes and auto-
That means there is real potential for matic teller machines are no longer adding to
big gains in productivity without losing the productivity, most of the boost of infotech is
benefits of job growth: Three-quarters of behind us. But this ignores the vast future of
the private sector is operating well below information-based medicine, customized and
its potential. That’s going to change, as more lifelong digital education, and the transfor-
COMING and more companies in the physical indus- mation of traditionally physical industries like
PRODUCTIVITY tries adopt digital technologies such as cloud manufacturing and transportation. Untold new
BOOM
page 6 computing, Internet of Things (IoT), artificial industries will arise and benefit from machine
figure 4. U.S. JOB GROWTH 1996—2016
40%
30%
28.7%
24.7%
10%
0%
Physical industries Digital industries Digital industries
(except administration and support)
Economists have offered a variety of expla- hypothesis.d They show that even if signif-
nations for the U.S. productivity slowdown. icant mismeasurements exist, and even if
They’ve also debated whether there’s any we make aggressive assumptions about
slowdown at all. the true benefits of digital goods and better
George Mason University professor health, the underestimates are not nearly
Tyler Cowen and venture capitalist Peter large enough to account for the productivity
Thiel believe we’ve suffered a 40-year inno- slowdown. Most of the productivity slowdown
vation slump, especially outside of informa- is thus real.
tion technology. Northwestern University’s The underlying causes of any pro-
Robert Gordon thinks the Information Age ductivity slowdown are another fertile area
has come to an end and that, in any case, of research. One attractive theory is that
it wasn’t nearly as powerful as previous weaker business dynamism—the reduced
technological eras, such as electrification. We net growth of new firms over the past two
should thus expect another 25 years of slow decades—has eroded productivity growth.e
growth. If innovation most often comes from high-
Harvard’s Larry Summers thinks the growth entrepreneurial firms and start-ups
problem originates with a persistent and that experiment with new technologies and
global lack of consumer demand, perhaps the business methods, then a reduction in firm
result of deleveraging. Weak demand reduces growth would reduce the possibilities for
the need for capital investment, which leads productivity-driving innovation.f
to “secular stagnation.” Or perhaps economist William Bau-
Others believe that much of the appar- mol had this all figured out decades ago. In
ent slowdown is an artifact of mismeasure- his famous “cost disease” theory, Baumol
ment. The benefits of the digital economy, said that certain high-touch service indus-
this theory goes, are especially difficult to tries such as healthcare and education are
grasp using traditional metrics. We may thus inherently labor-intensive and unproductive.
be undercounting output and productivity As these industries grow as a portion of the
in the information economy, and the entire economy, moreover, they exert a downward
economy may be doing better than we think. pull on total productivity.
It is pretty clear, for example, that over the Why, then, has manufacturing
last 15 years the official data underestimated productivity growth also stalled? Maybe it’s
the performance improvements of micropro- as simple as “atoms versus bits.” Perhaps
cessors and overstated their prices.a over-regulation of the physical industries
Digital goods and services also gen- (including healthcare, energy, education,
erate massive consumer surpluses, perhaps transportation, and manufacturing) has
worth hundreds of billions of dollars per slowed innovation in products built with
year.b Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs argues atoms. Contrast this to the more lightly regu-
that there is a bias against new goods and lated bits of the digital industries, which have
services, which by their nature are difficult shown remarkable vibrancy.
to compare with the past.c Joel Mokyr Research by Chad Jones of Stanford
persuasively argues that advances in health reinforces this view, showing that the quality
substantially boost living standards but often of institutions is correlated with total factor
don’t show up in the data. productivity (TFP) growth.g “One of the great
More recently, Chad Syverson and insights of the growth literature in the last
the team of David Byrne, John Fernald, and 15 years,” Jones concludes, “is that misallo-
Marshall Reinsdorf have given us reason cation [of resources] at the micro level can
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY to be skeptical of the mismeasurement show up as a reduction in total factor produc-
BOOM tivity at a more aggregated level.”
page 8
Defining the professional and technical services, and
Digital versus administrative and support services, many
Physical Economy of which are IT-based.
We define physical industries as those
private-sector industries whose output
currently is provided mainly in physical form.
E
conomists have long been concerned This category includes construction, mining,
with studying the impact of information healthcare, most of manufacturing, retailing,
technology on economic growth.9 In food services, education, transportation, and
general, the approach has been to separate the hotels.
economy into IT-producing industries, IT-using
Our reason for making this split is that
industries, and non-IT-using industries.10
the IT investment of the digital and physical
This breakdown was appropriate in sectors has performed very differently since
the early years of the information revolution, the late 1990s. Since 1998, investment in
where the Internet was relatively new and some computers, communications equipment, and
industries were much faster in adopting new software in the digital sector has more than
technologies than others. But today, every doubled, from $173 billion to $352 billion.
industry is using information technology to
By contrast, IT investment in the
perform essential functions. Moreover, the
physical industries—where the main output is
set of industries which “produce” information
in physical form—has risen by only 19% over
technology and Internet-related services has
the same period, from $127 billion to $151
widened dramatically, to include telecom
billion. In some very real sense, we’ve been
providers, management consulting firms, and
running two economies—one that is taking
publishers.
advantage of the information revolution, and
In this paper, we draw a distinction another one that is not.
between digital industries and physical
The sidebar below lists the main digital and
industries based on the output of those
physical industries. Digital industries account for
industries. We define digital industries as those
roughly 25% of the private-sector workforce and
private-sector industries where the main output
30% of private-sector GDP.
of the industry can be easily provided in digital
form and can be readily delivered anywhere
in the world via the Internet. This category
includes entertainment, publishing, telecom,
search, social media, finance and insurance,
A
re the physical industries inherently of a large city, requires a level of sophisticated
resistant to information technology? technology that was not available until fairly
Are they impervious to the productivity recently. Low-cost sensors that can be widely
miracles of Moore’s law and the Internet? We distributed; high-bandwidth wireless networks
don’t think so. Remember that soon after capable of collecting the information from the
Robert Solow’s famous quip in the late 1980s sensor; computing systems capable of analyz-
that “You can see the computer age everywhere ing terabytes of data in real time; artificial vision
but in the productivity statistics,” we in fact got that can make sense of images and artificial
a computer-driven productivity boom.11 It just intelligence that can make decisions—each of
took a little time for investments in personal these are necessary parts of applying IT to the
computers and the Internet to show up as a physical industries. Continued advances and
dramatic reorganization of what we now call the price reductions in sensing, cloud computing,
digital economy. and broadband connectivity, combined with
There is reason to believe that a number new thinking and new focus about how to apply
of today’s unproductive industries are on the these technologies to physical problems, are
cusp of similarly sweeping technological tran- finally about to open up the other four-fifths of
sitions. We do not suggest that any activity can the economy to the magical laws of Moore and
be made productive merely by “throwing IT at Metcalfe.12
it.” We do observe, however, that many of these Here are some examples of the coming
industries are ripe for change and that cre- transformation of physical industries into pro-
ative entrepreneurs are increasingly applying ductivity powerhouses, propelled by informa-
infotech to physical problems in surprising and tion technology.
powerful ways.
The most obvious way the physical
Personal Transportation
Waze had a fairly simple idea: connect drivers
industries will apply infotech to the physical
via their smartphones and let them help one
world is through the Internet of Things, also
another navigate around traffic or construction,
known as the Internet of Everything or the
or warn fellow drivers to slow down. In a short
Industrial Internet. In addition to connecting
time, this simple app has made commuting
the physical world via the Internet, however,
far less grueling and navigating the roads far
they also will infuse the physical world with
more enjoyable for millions. Waze shows how
smarts, supercharging human and physical
information technology can boost our personal
capital via cognitive computing, artificial
productivity by improving a very physical act.
intelligence, robotic dexterity, and virtual and
But it offers only the smallest hint of the ;com-
augmented reality.
ing information revolution in transportation.
Why has it taken so long? It sounds like
Ridesharing services and autonomous
a tautology, but industries whose output is
vehicles have both received a lot of attention
information are inherently more amenable to
as applications of information technology to the
digitization. A daily print newspaper can be
physical business of personal transportation.
easily transformed to a relatively small data
But if we want to understand how applying IT
set and delivered electronically. Similarly, your
to the physical sector can both lower costs and
annual consumption of financial services can
boost jobs, we have to think about the creation
be reduced to a small number of electronic
of a whole new ecosystem of products and
screens. On the business-to-business side,
COMING services.
PRODUCTIVITY
professional services such as engineering and
BOOM back-end corporate operations such as payroll
page 10 lose very little when digitized.
Let’s start with a number—15.8%. That’s that. Moreover, the early data on ridesharing
the astoundingly large share of household services already show the amazing productivity
spending going to buying, maintaining, and potential of IT in transportation. Economists
operating motor vehicles in 2015. The Bureau Judd Cramer and Alan Krueger studied the
of Labor Statistics tells us that middle-income experiences of Uber and taxi drivers in eight
households devote 18.2% of their household large American cities and found that Uber is far
expenditures to motor vehicles. By comparison, more efficient.13 Compared to taxis, Uber cars
the average household spends 7.2% of its bud- often show utilization rates 40% to 60% higher
get on food at home, 2.4% on phone service, (see Figure 5). One test of ridesharing’s produc-
and 3.3% on clothing. tivity is manifest in the extraordinary growth in
It should thus be obvious that one of the total rides. Uber reports that it completed 62
best ways to raise living standards would be to million rides in July 2016, up 15% from its 54
cut the cost of personal transportation. And if million rides in June. The smaller Lyft reported
we had a way of doing that while creating more a record 14 million rides in July 2016.
jobs, wouldn’t that be great? Beyond ridesharing, connected cars will
The cost-saving implications of enable far more efficient traffic management
technology-based ridesharing services such and improve safety through lane warnings and
as Uber and Lyft are obvious: Your vehicle anti-collision technology. Google’s self-driving
sits unused in your driveway or company cars have now driven 1.8 million miles, and
parking lot most of the day. If it were possible not once has a Google car been the cause of
to use vehicles more intensively, that an accident.14 In June 2016, a Tesla driver was
would dramatically cut the cost of personal killed in a now-famous accident. Yet the fact
transportation. that the event made news demonstrates the
power of Tesla’s autopilot capabilities. It was the
Using mobile apps to seamlessly first such event in more than 100 million miles
dispatch ridesharing vehicles accomplishes of Tesla autopilot driving.15 The experimental
60% 64%
■ Taxis
■ Ubers
50%
55%
Percent of miles driven with passenger
40%
41% 39%
30%
Sources: Judd Cramer and Alan B. Krueger
20%
10%
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
0% BOOM
Los Angeles Seattle page 11
autonomous and autopilot cars of Google and Energy Production
Tesla point to a future in which autonomous Through the 1990s and most of the 2000s,
vehicles (AVs) are far safer than conventional oil and gas mining in the United States was a
human-driven cars. fading industry. Employment was falling, and
The employment effects are interesting domestic production was falling even faster.
to think about. In the short-term, ridesharing The low point for oil and gas mining jobs was
services also create lots of jobs. In just five 2003, while the low point for domestic crude oil
years, the number of rideshare drivers exploded production was 2008.
from zero to more than 500,000.16 But what But then information technology started
about the medium term, as autonomous vehi- remaking the energy business itself, generating
cles become more common? both higher productivity and more jobs. The
Here’s where we have to think about the shale boom of the last decade is the epicenter
whole ecosystem, rather than just one piece of IT and energy. Three-dimensional geologi-
of it. As drivers become less important, repair cal computer modeling is making oil and gas
technicians become more important. For one, drilling a “just-in-time” industry with lag times
as vehicles get used more intensively, they will of weeks and days, rather than months and
require more regular maintenance, just like years. The early returns on the application of
taxis do today. information technology to energy are astound-
ing. In just the last half decade, U.S. oil produc-
And crucially, vehicles that operate with-
tion nearly doubled, from 5 million to 9 million
out human control almost certainly will be held
barrels per day.18 Natural gas production, which
to a higher standard of maintenance including
had remained remarkably steady since 1970,
regular testing, replacement, and updating of
suddenly rose more than 50% (see Figure 6).
technical systems. As one insurance company
The entire increase is due to the revolution
notes, referring to AVs, “the operator may still
in shale technologies, which employ highly
be required to maintain the vehicle, and liability
sophisticated horizontal drilling and hydraulic
could attach to the operator for a loss arising
fracturing of petroleum-infused rock forma-
out of a failure to maintain it properly.”17
tions miles under the earth’s surface. Finding
Highly trained repair technicians—those the shale formations and guiding the drills to
who can figure out whether a stalling car suffers precise locations requires high-end 3D comput-
from a software glitch or a faulty fuel pump— ing resources.19 Feedback from the operations
will be in high demand. On the other hand, if AVs generates massive amounts of data, which will
are safer and there are fewer collisions, some be used to refine the next generation of explora-
portion of maintenance and repair work may tion and drilling.
fall. Today, there are roughly 1.1 million auto,
Geologists had known about the possibil-
bus, and truck repair technicians in the United
ities of shale rock for perhaps 100 years. Yet it
States, earning on average more than $40,000
was inexpensive computing, often in the cloud,
per year. We could see their numbers grow, but
that finally enabled the economical exploration
we could also expect to see entirely new job
and extraction of this abundant resource.20
categories arise as people find creative ways to
“The speed of improvement has been remark-
use autonomous vehicles for new tasks. This is
able,” notes energy analyst Mark Mills. “With
the new middle class, with a mix of digital and
virtually no increase in capital costs (in some
mechanical skills and robust employment for
cases, costs are down), the three key measures
the foreseeable future.
of drilling—time to drill, wells per rig, and total
Regardless of how the employment distance drilled—have improved by 50–150
effects balance out within the transportation percent in less than five years.”21 Moreover, the
sector, more efficient transportation will free number of jobs in oil and gas mining and related
resources for everyone to spend on other goods support industries rose by 58% between 2003
and services, and to invest in new ventures, and 2015. Use of information technology was a
creating jobs elsewhere. job creator, not a job destroyer.
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM
page 12
Shale gas has also been the chief driver Education and Training
of reduced carbon dioxide emissions in the Education and training is a very large industry
United States. As inexpensive natural gas that has not enjoyed rapid productivity growth.
replaced coal for electricity generation, CO2 Despite the introduction of MOOCs (massive
emissions from electricity in 2015 fell to a level open online courses) and distance learning,
not seen since 1988.22 This, however, was just most students are still taught in person with
the first wave of the shale revolution. Exploiting conventional methods that would have looked
the petabytes of data generated by the new familiar a century ago. What’s more, there’s
shale fields, big data analysis could enable widespread recognition that the quality of
“Shale 2.0” technologies to produce American education has not kept up with the needs of a
oil and gas at prices equal to Saudi Arabia’s rapidly changing economy.
famously low-cost fields.23 This is an informa-
Nevertheless, digital technologies are
tion revolution in the most physical of indus-
already beginning to transform primary, sec-
tries, and in the industry—energy—that makes
ondary, and higher education. The experiments
every other industry possible.
of the last few years with online courses will be
In a broader sense, each industrial revo- refined into truly powerful educational plat-
lution is an energy revolution. Agriculture was forms. New analytics will produce customized
vastly more energy-efficient than hunting and learning experiences. Education at every level
gathering. Steam engines and internal combus- may thus change more in the next decade than
tion engines made horsepower obsolete. The in the previous century.
Internet transports data across the globe with
Digital technologies also enable true
a minuscule fraction of the energy of a boat
lifelong learning and training, which is crucial
carrying a letter across the oceans. Productiv-
to making workers productive across various
ity is producing more output per unit of energy.
economic cycles. Many economists in fact
Energy is at the heart of everything we do, and
get this point wrong. A key argument by those
IT is not only improving energy efficiency, it is
predicting a continued productivity slump is
now central to energy production.
our inability to keep adding to human capital
30,000,000
20,000,000
Source: Energy Information Administration
10,000,000
■ shale gas
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
0 BOOM
page 13
via education. The idea is that making the leap systems that are more intuitive and less
to near-universal elementary and secondary abstract, however, it will be possible to bring
education over the previous 200 years and the low-skilled workers back into the economic
more recent rise of a large college-educated fold and empower them to participate in the
population was a big factor in American growth. overall growth of technological prosperity. Just
But we’ve hit a wall. It’s impossible to increase as the PC and smartphone allowed masses of
schooling forever. At some point, we all need non-technical people to participate in the com-
to go to work. Measured “years of education” puter revolution, which had previously been the
will thus by definition level off and will no longer province of scientists and engineers, new user-
provide a boost to human capital. friendly tools that don’t look like “computers”
Is formal “years of education” the right will help amplify the important human skills of
measure, though? We don’t think so. In fact, the workers supposedly left behind.
universality of knowledge made possible by the Indeed, increasing the productivity of
Internet opens up vast new opportunities for education and training may be the single most
unconstrained learning across every disci- important factor in improving the employability
pline, from the technical and vocational to the of the American workforce.
deepest reaches of science. Better information
about the skills of workers and the needs of Retail, Wholesale, and Distribution
businesses also will allow us to better forecast, The story of the retail and wholesale industries
produce, and match skills with opportuni- is a bit different than other industries in the
ties. As our overall educational environment physical sector. In the years before the financial
improves—both formally and informally—addi- crisis, wholesalers and retailers were among
tions to human capital may thus not level off the biggest spenders on information technol-
but in fact rise faster than ever. ogy, and they were paid off in rising produc-
tivity. Better inventory control and ordering
MOOCs and other online classrooms and helped boost the productivity of the backend
tutorials will in fact help revolutionize educa- of the supply chain. Thus between 1995 and
tion. They will radically improve the efficiency 2005, both wholesale and retail showed annual
of teaching routine tasks and elementary productivity gains in excess of 4% annually
courses; provide far more choice and diversity (see Figure 7). Indeed, the American wholesale
in content; free students (and teachers) from and retail industries were widely held up as the
the constraints of location; and allow people exemplars of how the United States had leapt
to learn from the very best instructors in most ahead of Europe and Japan in terms of applying
subjects. information technology for growth.
Virtual reality and augmented reality, Unfortunately, since then productivity
meanwhile, will be important tools in both basic growth has collapsed in both wholesale and
education and job training. Imagine a set of retail to the 1% to 2% annual range.
augmented reality glasses that help guide tech-
nical students or new hires through a complex What happened? It turns out that in the
procedure, whether with a mechanical device, end, goods still must be moved physically from
a construction project, or on a computer. Our the factory or the port, to the warehouse or
ability to guide workers through complicated store, to the ultimate buyer. And it’s those phys-
tasks will jump substantially. Moreover, these ical movements—in particular, the final delivery
workers will be able to interact with the aug- to the home or office—that have turned out to
mented reality system, ask it questions, and get be the productivity bottleneck. Local freight
real-time feedback. trucking is an inherently unproductive activity,
as delivery drivers navigate congested and pot-
These augmented reality systems and holed streets, search for parking spaces, ring
other human–machine interfaces may be doorbells, and wait for an answer. Indeed, there
especially important for low-skilled workers. have been meager productivity gains in local
Many believe the computer age has benefited freight trucking in recent years (see Figure 8).
COMING high-skilled work but devalued low-skilled work.
PRODUCTIVITY If a worker can’t use a computer, he or she is Under the previous model of in-person
BOOM shopping, consumers absorbed the time and
page 14 out of luck. As we develop new human–machine
figure 7. RETAIL AND WHOLESALE: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWS
6%
3%
■ retail
0%
4%
Producitivty growth, 10-year moving average
2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1%
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
0% BOOM
page 15
cost of local delivery themselves. The pro- manufacturing labor productivity for existing
ductivity statistics for retail may not take the products are going to yield diminishing gains.
reduction of consumer driving and shopping Indeed, over the past 10 years, manufacturing
time into account, but they do highlight the labor productivity growth has slumped to only
productivity bottlenecks of delivery. And in the 2.1% per year, half of its 4.6% annual growth in
end, productivity depends on the whole supply the 10 years ending in 2006.
chain, not just one piece of it. However, the sky is the limit when it
That’s why retailers such as Amazon comes to the design and manufacture of new
envision aerial drones as delivery vehicles, products with new capabilities. Indeed, that is
bypassing the congested streets.24 Drones precisely how millions of jobs were created in
have their own challenges, of course, such as the past. Henry Ford designed a new product,
safety. But these challenges are more easily called the Model T. But it was mass production
solved by information technology compared to that allowed him to make the product cheap
prospect of building new streets. At the same enough for ordinary Americans to afford. The
time, applying the Internet of Things to the result: Booming demand, rising employment,
home may allow automated delivery of food and and the creation of the modern automobile
household supplies direct from warehouses, industry.
thus removing one transportation step from the A similar trend today will require a new
process—or even enable 3D printing of some domestic manufacturing sector, including
items at home, thus removing two steps. start-ups that fully embrace the latest changes
Manufacturing and in IT and create new business models, such
the New IT Revolution as manufacturing-as-a-service (MaaS). So far
Manufacturing was originally at the vanguard of that hasn’t happened: Government data shows
automation—the application of IT to the factory that most domestic factories have not added
floor to improve productivity. The first program- much to their stock of information technology
mable logic controller was designed in 1968 equipment and software over the past 10 years.
specifically for industrial uses. As more and Between 2004 and 2014, manufacturing IT
more domestic factories adopted sophisticated capital stock increased by just $46 billion, and
computer-controlled machines, the goods more than 65% of that gain was in the com-
produced by the factories became relatively puter and electronics industry.
cheaper for consumers, leading to rising living Figures 9 and 10 show the challenge.
standards. Leaving out the computer and electronics
Now manufacturing is ready for the next industry, the capital stock of IT equipment in
stage of the IT revolution, the application of the rest of manufacturing has barely grown
cloud computing, Internet of Things, artificial since 2000. The capital stock of software in
intelligence, and related technologies to trans- manufacturing is, likewise, barely higher now
form not just production but product design than in 2000.
as well. For example, we might see “smart” It’s an article of faith for many econo-
clothing; furniture with sensors and artificial mists that manufacturing has seen enormous
intelligence built in to adjust to body shapes productivity gains. Over the last 20 years, U.S.
and create a more comfortable experience; manufacturing output grew by 40% in real
customized and just-in-time products built terms, even as millions of manufacturing jobs
locally with 3D printing; and “manufactured” were shed. This is seemingly the definition
artificial organs which have to be “built” close of productivity. But these effects are highly
to their eventual users. These new product dependent on the specific manufacturing
categories can help reinvigorate domestic industries in question. Manufacturing pro-
manufacturing and potentially create new jobs ductivity gains have been concentrated in the
at home. computer- and tech-producing industries.
Two points: Domestic labor is already And in more recent years, the economic data
COMING a relatively small share of the total costs of show that overall manufacturing productivity
PRODUCTIVITY growth has been slowing. The latest report from
BOOM manufacturing. So further attempts to increase
page 16 the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that
figure 9. MOST MANUFACTURING LAGS IT INVESTMENT
2.4
2.2
2.0
■ all manufacturing
Index: 1994 = 1, 2009 U.S. dollars
1.8
Capital stock of
information technology equipment
1.6
1
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2014
2.5
Index: 1994 = 1, 2009 U.S. dollars
1.5
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
1 BOOM
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2014 page 17
productivity growth in manufacturing was only past 20 years than employment in the physical
0.2% and 0.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, industries. Productivity growth does not equal
barely big enough to see. job losses.
Most manufacturing industries actually What about robots? According to trade
have experienced falling or stagnant multifac- association data, 31,000 robots valued at
tor productivity growth since the early 1990s. $1.8 billion were shipped to North American
(“Multifactor productivity growth (MFP), also customers in 2016. The spending on robots
known as total factor productivity (TFP), is pales next to the $300 billion in industrial
a measure of economic performance that equipment and manufacturing buildings that
compares the amount of goods and services corporations spent in the United States in 2016.
produced (output) to the amount of combined In many cases, robots help the United
inputs used to produce those goods and ser- States retain jobs. Consider a modern semicon-
vices,” according to the Bureau of Labor Statis- ductor fab, which has installed a proprietary
tics. “Inputs can include labor, capital, energy, network of wafer-handling robots. This system
materials, and purchased services.”25) There’s probably reduced the number of wafer-handling
no way that domestic factories can compete jobs by several dozen. Yet the robots allowed
against low-wage foreign rivals without big the new fab to be built in the United States,
gains in multifactor productivity, which has instead of in a low-cost overseas location, thus
been absent. The notion that manufacturing saving or creating some 1,200 high-paying
jobs are lost (or gained) either due to technol- American jobs.
ogy or trade, one or the other, is too simplistic.
More often, it is a complex interplay of the two. The upside of robots in manufacturing
Some of the least productive manufacturing spreading out into new industries is thus enor-
activities were the first to be moved offshore, to mous. That’s crucial for increasing the produc-
China for example, while activities that were rel- tivity of existing manufacturing processes and
atively more IT-intensive and more productive creating new processes altogether.
often remained. In many manufacturing sec- In many ways manufacturing is the
tors, it is thus the lack of automation that has classic case where atoms will be boosted by
been a crucial cause of falling employment.26 bits. The process is already underway—but the
Technology and trade are indispensable diffusion of the Industrial Internet across the
forces for economic growth and rising living manufacturing sectors will take place over the
standards. Manufacturing jobs have been in a next two decades. New, IT-enabled product
secular decline as a portion of U.S. employment categories, combined with design and custom-
since World War II.27 Technologies of course ization that increasingly treats manufacturing
always make some jobs obsolete. The rise as a service, will not necessarily bring back “old
of China over the last 30 years, meanwhile, jobs” but instead create new and better ones.
caused sharp employment dislocations in Healthcare
certain industries over a relatively short period Healthcare is among the largest industries,
of time. We should not conclude, however, that which makes its very weak productivity growth
either technology or trade is a villain. Quite in recent years all the more problematic.
the opposite. We cannot have job and wage Measured by Bureau of Economic Analysis data,
growth without technology and trade. The total productivity growth in healthcare over the
key is achieving economic growth that is fast last 15 years was less than a tenth of growth
enough to provide new opportunities to replace in the stagnant physical industries and a mere
the old ones, acting as a cushion in a dynamic thirtieth of the growth in digital industries (see
economy. Figure 11).
If we take a broader look, we can see This weakness in productivity growth
that highly productive industries have expe- shows up as the need for an ever-increasing
rienced big job gains. Productivity growth in number of expensive healthcare workers,
the digital industries has been far higher than
COMING including an explosion in health administra-
PRODUCTIVITY in the physical industries. Yet employment in tion. For example, in 2016 the U.S. population
BOOM the digital industries has grown faster over the
page 18 increased by 0.7%. Meanwhile, the number of
figure 11. BOOSTING HEALTHCARE PRODUCTIVITY CRUCIAL FOR GROWTH
1.6
1.5
■ digital industries
Value added per full-time employee. Index: 2000 = 1
1.4
1.3
1.1
■ healthcare
1.0
0.9
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
170
■ medical care CPI
160
150
130
Sources: First Trust Advisors, Bureau of Labor Stataistics,
120
■ cosmetic surgery
110
100
90
■ Lasik surgery
80
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
70 BOOM
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 page 21
Optimistic PCs.33 But now the cloud dominates. The
Signs clustering of computer servers and storage sys-
in the Cloud tems in large data centers created a powerful
new economic model—what some call “ware-
house-scale computing.”34 The radical price
drops in computing and storage, accessible by
W
hile IT investment by the physical anyone with a broadband Internet connection,
industries has been sluggish, gave birth to a new business model that was
spending on information technology soon dubbed “cloud computing.” And today, the
services in recent years has increased rapidly. vast amount of Internet traffic is generated in or
Starting after the Great Recession, spending on passes through the cloud.
technology services and goods, not including Cloud computing has been a chief input
investment, by the physical industries grew to the mobile app revolution, enabling entrepre-
nearly 50% in just four years, from a baseline of neurs to develop massively complex software
around $225 billion between 2000 and 2010 to and services with little capital investment.
a much higher level of more than $330 billion in It also powers the revolution in Web video,
2015 (see Figure 13). This shift likely represents exemplified by YouTube and Netflix; enables
the transition away from investment in internal consumer PC backup services; and super-
IT departments and into “the cloud”—toward charges our smartphones by remotely doing
outsourced computing, data storage, and much of the heavy lifting of the apps we enjoy.
software-as-a-service (SaaS) offerings. Most data-heavy firms have spent the last
Cloud computing is a fundamental force decade migrating their computing and storage
in our economic transformation. It’s only about needs from in-house IT systems to private data
10 years old, however, and it will continue to centers and now to the cloud. From a standing
grow for decades. Before 2008, most Internet start in 2006, cloud computing will, accord-
traffic was peer-to-peer file sharing between ing to Cisco’s Global Cloud Index, generate 4
300,000
250,000
200,000
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM 150,000
page 22
table 1. SOME PHYSICAL INDUSTRIES BOOST SPENDING ON TECH GOODS AND SERVICES
Increase in spending on tech goods and services, 2010–2015*
Percent Billions
change of dollars
zettabytes of traffic in 2016 (a zettabyte is a petroleum drilling are among the most physical
billion trillion bytes).35 By 2019, cloud traffic is of industries. But the application of inexpensive
projected to grow to 8.6 zettabytes. and abundant cloud computing power has
jolted these once-tired industries back to life in
The recent spending rise on infotech services highlights just the last several years.
the possibilities for the physical economy, and it is likely The recent spending rise on infotech ser-
just the beginning of a much larger wave. vices highlights the possibilities for the physical
economy, and it is likely just the beginning of
Gartner, the market research firm, a much larger wave. So far, the increases in
estimates that what it calls the “cloud shift”— spending have been relatively concentrated in a
the transition from spending on traditional IT few industries (see Table 1).37 Technology goods
offerings to cloud services—will be $111 billion and services still represent just 3.7% of all
in 2016, growing to more than $216 billion in spending on inputs by physical industry firms,
2020.36 meaning these firms still have lots of room to
The recent uptick in physical industry boost infotech intensity.
spending on IT cloud services is especially
notable in two sectors, transportation and
petroleum manufacturing. This likely reflects (1)
the rise of Uber and Lyft ridesharing services
and (2) the shale oil and gas boom. Taxis and
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM
page 23
Projecting in cumulative federal revenues and $1.9 trillion
the Economic in additional state and local revenues over the
Impacts 15-year period, all without increasing the tax
share of GDP.
One important insight is that the phys-
A
ical industries make up 75% of private-sector
s enterprises in the physical industries
employment, while the digital industries are
learn how to better use IT-related
only 25%. As a result, an acceleration of pro-
investments to transform their
ductivity growth in the physical sector has three
operations, as described in previous sections,
times the overall impact as the same accelera-
what kind of gain in productivity and growth
tion in the digital sector.38
can we expect? To analyze this question,
we use a new dataset from the Bureau of The industry-by-industry analysis in this paper suggests
Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor that the whole range of physical industries—from
Statistics. This new dataset, called the personal transportation and energy to education,
“integrated industry-level production accounts” retailing, manufacturing, and healthcare—is ready for an
and described in Appendix A, is specifically IT-driven transformation.
designed to help answer questions about
sources of growth in the economy. On the consumer level, digital goods
and services amount to only 15% of personal
We use the integrated industry-level
consumption spending. So it’s important to
production accounts to analyze the slowdown
realize productivity gains in the physical indus-
in productivity growth in the physical sector.
tries to improve consumer welfare. A recent
In particular, we examine the “New Economy”
analysis by one of the authors showed that
high-productivity-growth period, when physical
consumer prices in the physical sector have
industries such as retail and wholesale trade
been accelerating, while consumer prices in the
showed rapid productivity growth, driven
digital sector have been falling.39 But because
by IT-related investments (see Appendix A
the share of physical goods and services are so
for details). By comparison, over the decade
much larger, any acceleration of productivity in
from 2004 to 2014, the IT-related slowdown in
the physical sector will have a disproportionate
growth in the physical industries helped slice
benefit for consumers.
0.7 percentage points off overall productivity.
The industry-by-industry analysis in this
paper suggests that the whole range of physical
industries—from personal transportation and
energy to education, retailing, manufacturing,
and healthcare—is ready for an IT-driven trans-
formation that could reverse this negativetrend.
How big? If the physical sector merely regains
the dynamism it had in the late 1990s and early
2000s, that could add 0.7 percentage points to
annual GDP growth.
That may not seem like much. But if the
baseline growth rate is only 2%, as most econo-
mists now think, a jump to 2.7% annually makes
a big difference. By 2031, the higher growth
rate pushes up GDP by 11% compared to its
previous path, or $2.7 trillion (in 2016 dollars).
That’s enough to significantly lift incomes and
living standards, as wage and salary payments
would rise by a cumulative $8.6 trillion over the
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY next 15 years, in 2016 dollars. In addition, the
BOOM larger economy would yield around $3.9 trillion
page 24
The Future the first popular smartphone in 2007, a new
of Job software industry would emerge? Yet in just
Growth a few short years, entrepreneurs and firms
created more than 1.5 million new apps, and
the cumulative number of mobile apps down-
loaded by iOS and Android users exploded from
S
pecialization and efficiency create wealth essentially zero to nearly 400 billion.40 This
and drive demand. New products and “app economy” now supports an astounding
efficiencies in one arena may displace 1.66 million jobs in the United States.41
some current products and workers, but they The app economy is a good example of
unlock new pathways for higher-value products, why it’s so important that public policy promote
firms, and jobs. In other words, innovation innovation and plan for surprises. Heavily regu-
creates new products and services that didn’t lated and taxed economies tend to discourage
exist before. start-ups and the growth of small firms. They
New technologies boost job growth in do this in part by directly prohibiting innova-
at least three distinct ways: directly, for tion or indirectly discouraging investment and
workers who build the new tools and products; experimentation. They also make competing
indirectly, for workers who leverage the new against incumbents more difficult by imposing
tools to create unrelated businesses and ser- costs that large, established firms can more
vices; and through economic growth, as rising easily bear.
productivity unlocks scarce resources to invest
Many modern economies attempt to
in new projects and spend on other consumer
guarantee employment by subsidizing existing
goods.
firms and making job turnover difficult. This
Think back to a hundred years ago, when approach may be comforting in the short term
40% of U.S. employment was in farming and but usually isn’t effective in the long term. By
another 30% in manufacturing. If someone discouraging new hires at existing firms and
had told you then that 100 years hence these blocking new firm formation, these efforts often
two sectors would combine into just 14% of backfire, resulting in higher unemployment
the economy, the outlook would have seemed and lower incomes. This is one reason the U.S.
cataclysmic. It’s relatively easy for people to economy and labor market for the last several
see which jobs might be made obsolete by decades were generally healthier than much of
technology but far more difficult to imagine the Western Europe.42
new ones.
New calls for tariffs and other protec-
For example, the discovery of antibiotics tionist measures are another form of this static,
and invention of x-rays were not only great for zero-sum view. Closed economies may be able
public health, they also created the modern to protect some existing jobs for a short time.
healthcare industries. Hospitals, which had Protectionism, however, usually comes at the
been charitable institutions where poor people cost of higher input prices, higher consumer
went to die, became respected institutions prices, retaliatory obstacles to exports or
where people came to be healed—and not market access, and an overall reduction in
so incidentally, where many new jobs were dynamism and thus long-term job growth. In
created. today’s highly integrated world, importers are
Today, the needs and demands of exporters, and vice versa.43 In an increasingly
modern society are creating new occupations knowledge-based, data-driven world, moreover,
at a rapid clip. As of March 2017 for example, the very concept of imports and exports is
there are roughly 50,000 job postings for social losing relevance. On the other hand, an open
media managers, digital marketing specialists, economy full of enterprise and entrepreneur-
and the like. The number of job openings in 3D ship offers a tradeoff: in return for an appar-
printing and additive manufacturing is rising ently higher degree of uncertainty, an open
fast. economy almost always delivers a more pros-
COMING
perous future. This has been one of America’s PRODUCTIVITY
Who would have predicted even 15 years BOOM
chief advantages for several centuries.
ago that, beginning with the introduction of page 25
Public To fully exploit the power of informa-
Policy tion technology, however, will require public
policy changes that encourage investment and
innovation in lagging non-digital sectors, as
shown in Table 2. In today’s economy, the most
I
n this paper we have argued that productiv- important factor in any business is human capi-
ity growth can be significantly accelerated tal. Productivity-enhancing policies must there-
by the application of information technology fore focus on empowering people. Expanding
to the physical industries. This is an important information technology to the physical econ-
point in the wide-ranging policy debates now omy also will require the very best innovation
taking place in the United States, Europe, and infrastructure. Finally, the United States should
the rest of the industrialized world. If policy- embrace in all its industries the entrepreneurial
makers and voters begin to feel like slow growth climate that has produced so much wealth and
is inevitable, then economic policy inevitably opportunity in the digital industries.
tilts towards dividing up a fixed pie. That means
Empowered People
less willingness to entertain the benefits of
A new, fully digital economy will require a
international trade and immigration, and more
workforce with the skills to thrive in connected,
willingness to regulate business, including
data-driven firms and industries. If existing
technology. Why support disruptive innovation
digital industries are struggling to find enough
if it doesn’t lead to growth and rising living
technical talent, how can we expect the other
standards?
70% of the private economy to fully staff the
Conversely, if productivity growth begins
information-intensive future?44 We therefore
to accelerate, public support for “growth”
need to upgrade our education and workforce
industries will rise. There will be more tangible
development systems to dramatically expand
benefits from cross-border flows of goods, ser-
the number of Americans who can help create,
vices, people, and data, and more willingness to
and thrive in, the digitally-enabled economy.
support innovation and trade.
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM
page 29
Conclusion challenges—such as entitlements—that are
more difficult to resolve in a bifurcated, slow-
growth economy.
Many of the technological transforma-
T
he information gap—the divergence tions highlighted in this paper are underway
of infotech intensity and productivity already. Public policy, however, will either
between the digital and physical indus- retard or accelerate the diffusion of information
tries—helps to answer many of today’s big into the physical industries. Unleashing these
economic questions, such as the source of our industries and technologies could substantially
decade-long “stagnation” and the “productivity boost economic growth—delivering an econ-
paradox.” It also helps to explain why so many omy that’s $2.7 trillion larger by 2031. Better or
citizens in certain regions and industries feel worse policy will thus, in significant measure,
left out of America’s relative prosperity. determine the rate at which more people enjoy
The physical industries have invested the miraculous benefits of rapid innovation,
relatively less in information technology, and both as workers and consumers.
they generally have not exploited IT’s role as an
The pessimism about growth ignores the
enabler of breakthrough business models. The
fact that information has revolutionized only
digital industries built new platforms—the PC,
30% of the private-sector economy. Applying
the Web, the smartphone, cloud computing,
the power of information to the remaining 70%
electronic financial markets—which empowered
will replicate the gains of digital industries, but
further explosions of entrepreneurial activity.
on a much larger scale. In the process, many
The physical industries, on the other hand, have
physical industries, firms, and jobs will become
not built or leveraged information platforms to
digital industries, firms, and jobs. Even this
nearly the same degree.
optimistic view, however, understates the vast
potential. For there is no endpoint, no funda-
If 70% of the private sector has yet to fully embrace the
mental limit to innovation. The digital world
power of information technology, many of the industries
itself will continue to evolve and grow, and the
and workers that have not yet fully shared in the fruits
digital–physical distinction will become less
of the information revolution can hope for faster income
salient. As information technology propagates,
and job growth in the years ahead.
entirely new industries, firms, and jobs will
emerge in a never-ending cycle, propelling the
The information gap, however, points to economy forward and making the next chapters
a hopeful path forward. If we have not met of our technology journey even more exciting,
a fundamental technological wall, and if we widespread, and uplifting.
haven’t run out of new ideas, it means a return
to robust economic growth is still possible.
Meanwhile, if 70% of the private sector has
yet to fully embrace the power of informa-
tion technology, many of the industries and
workers that have not yet fully shared in the
fruits of the information revolution can hope
for faster income and job growth in the years
ahead. Consumers, meanwhile, who have
enjoyed unprecedented abundance in digital
content and communications services, will be
encouraged that relatively expensive products
and services in healthcare, education, energy,
transportation and other physical industries
might now follow a similarly innovative path of
more choice and value for the dollar. An econ-
COMING omy where more Americans participate and
PRODUCTIVITY benefit will lift up them and their families, and
BOOM
page 30 it will help us work through several big political
Appendix most to overall GDP growth between 2000 and
2014? The answer: The insurance industry. Or
Projecting
try this one: In which industry did employment
the Potential
of college-educated workers contribute the
Productivity Gains
most to overall GDP growth between 2000 and
from the
2014? State and local government, followed by
New IT Revolution
ambulatory healthcare services.
This new dataset allows us to drill down
and analyze the effects of information tech-
I
n this Appendix we develop our projection for nology equipment and software on growth.
future productivity gains from use of infor- Specifically, we look at two types of impact.
mation technology. Our analysis is based First, investment in information technology
on a newly developed dataset from the Bureau equipment and software increases the stock of
of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of productive capital, which makes workers more
Labor Statistics (BLS).55 This dataset, the “inte- productive at whatever task they were already
grated industry-level production accounts,” was doing. We call this the IT “capital stock effect.”
published for the first time in 2014. The latest But investment in information tech-
release came in June 2016, covering economic nology also enables companies to transform
growth from 1998 to 2014. production and create new products and
Data services which would not have been possible
Because of their newness, the integrated before. This is the “multifactor productivity
industry-level production accounts are not well effect,” which are the gains over and above the
known, so it is worth describing them. The con- direct benefits of new equipment. For example,
ventional national accounts used to calculate investment in mobile networks enables the
GDP divide the economy into functional catego- creation of smart phones, which in turn enables
ries such as consumption and investment. BEA the creation of mobile apps, which in turn can
also publishes tables that report production by be used for a very wide variety of purposes,
industry. including shopping and navigation. All these
new activities boost growth and productivity.
The integrated industry level production
accounts go a step further. They are specifically Analysis
designed to report the sources of economic We divide the economy into digital and physical
growth for all goods-producing and all ser- industries, as per our analysis in this paper. The
vice-producing industries, including the public one difference is that we estimate the effect
sector. For each of 63 industries, the dataset on growth of all of GDP, not just the private
reports the contribution to value-added growth sector. In particular, we can compare the high
for each of eight factors of production: productivity growth in the “New Economy”
1. IT capital period of 1998–2004 with the slow-productivity
growth decade of 2004–2014. The first period
2. R&D capital
includes both the IT boom of the late 1990s,
3. Software capital and the early 2000 years when use of IT helped
4. Entertainment originals capital boost productivity in a wide range of industries.
The second period includes the financial and
5. Other capital
housing bubble leading up to the Great Reces-
6. College labor sion, the Great Recession itself, and the years of
7. Non-college labor stagnant growth afterwards.
0.60 0.64
■ 1998–2004
■ 2004–2014
Percentage points of average annual contribution to GDP growth*
0.50
0.40 0.44
0.20 0.24
0.20
0.10
0.15
0.10
0.00
IT capital stock effect Multifactor productivity effect Total IT effect
* Excludes computer and electronic manufacturing
New Economy period, the IT capital stock and the digital and physical sectors, but the impact
multifactor productivity contributed an average on the physical sector is much bigger.
of 0.64 percentage points annually to GDP
growth. By comparison, in the second period, Projection
which includes the Great Recession, there was So how can we use the recent historical evi-
a sharp drop in the total contribution to GDP dence to project the future impact of infor-
growth of the total IT effect coming from the mation technology on growth? The slowdown
digital sector, to 0.24 percentage points per of IT-related growth in the digital sector may
year. simply be the result of the initial introduction
of the Internet falling back to a more sustain-
Figure 15 shows the IT capital stock able pace. Instead, we regard the slowdown
effect and the multifactor productivity effect for of IT-related growth in the physical sector as a
the physical sector across these two decades. much bigger problem for the economy, because
In the first period, the IT-related contribution it has resulted in slowing overall growth and
of the physical sector to GDP growth was rising prices.
roughly comparable to the digital sector, at 0.61
percentage points annually. This represents From that perspective, the key questions are:
large IT-related gains in physical industries such 1. Can physical sector enterprises utilize IT to
as wholesale and retail trade. But in the second transform their operations in such a way to
period, the IT-related contribution to growth boost productivity and growth?
actually turns negative, to -0.10 percentage 2. How much gain it is possible to achieve?
points per year, as multifactor productivity goes
in reverse. We believe the answer to the first ques-
tion is yes, especially as the Internet of Things
COMING Table 3 summarizes the comparison spreads more widely.
PRODUCTIVITY between the digital and physical sectors. The
BOOM
page 32 deceleration of IT-related growth affects both
figure 15. PHYSICAL INDUSTRIES: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF IT INVESTMENT
0.70
0.60
■ 1998–2004 0.61
0.40
0.30
0.34
0.20
0.27
0.10
0.12
0.0
-0.10 -0.10
-0.20 -0.22
-0.30
IT capital stock effect Multifactor productivity effect Total IT effect
* Excludes real estate and includes government sector
To answer the second question, we That may not seem like much. But if
assume that the physical sector can regain the the baseline growth rate is only 2%, as most
level of IT capital stock and multifactor produc- economists now think, boosting that to 2.7%
tivity effects seen in the New Economy period. annually makes a big difference. By 2031, the
In other words, based on recent historical evi- higher growth rate pushes up GDP by 11% com-
dence, we assume that IT investment and multi- pared to its previous path, or $2.7 trillion (in
factor productivity growth in the physical sector 2016 dollars). That’s enough to significantly lift
could accelerate enough to add 0.7 percentage incomes and living standards. In addition, the
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, author calculations
points to the economy-wide growth rate. larger economy would yield around $3.9 trillion
* IT capital stock includes computers, related peripheral equipment, communications gear, and software.
** Digital Industries omits computer and electronics manufacturing. COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
*** Physical Industries omits real estate, which is mainly household ownership BOOM
of residential housing, and includes government sector. page 33
in cumulative federal revenues and $1.9 trillion in part, on extrapolation from recent trends. So
in additional state and local revenues over the the shift to faster productivity growth may not
15-year period, all without increasing the tax appear clearly in the data until several years
share of GDP. later. For example, the 1996 increase in non-
farm business labor productivity was originally
Timing reported as 0.7%.56 Today that number has
Judging the timing of productivity shifts is been revised up to 2.7%, signaling the begin-
very difficult, except in retrospect. However, ning of the productivity boom of the 1990s.
the historical evidence suggests that the
shift from low-productivity growth regimes to Such large revisions in productivity sta-
high-productivity growth regimes can happen tistics are not uncommon. In fact, it’s possible
relatively quickly. The productivity acceleration that the productivity upshift may already be
of the 1990s happened within the space of underway. For the purposes of our projection,
two or three years, as the Internet came into we assume that the next productivity boom
prominence. starts in 2017.
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM
page 34
Notes for “Prevailing Views firms (those most likely to innovate) after the Great
on Productivity” on page 8 Recession reduced business dynamism and thus
productivity growth. Alessandro Di Nola. “Capital
a See David M. Byrne, Stephen D. Oliner, and Daniel Misallocation during the Great Recession,” Paper
E. Sichel. “How Fast Are Semiconductor Prices 68289, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, September
Falling?” Working Paper 21074, National Bureau 2015. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68289/1/
of Economic Research, April 2015. http://www. MPRA_paper_68289.pdf.
nber.org/papers/w21074. See also Bret Swan-
son. “Moore’s Law at 50: The Performance and gC
harles I. Jones. “The Facts of Economic Growth.”
Prospects of the Exponential Economy.” American Handbook of Macroeconomics 2A (December
Enterprise Institute, November 2015. http://www. 2015): 3–69. http://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/
aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Moores-law- facts.pdf.
at-50.pdf.
d Chad
Syverson. “Challenges to Mismeasurement 3
See Bret Swanson. “Moore’s Law at 50: The Perfor-
Explanations of the U.S. Productivity Slowdown.” mance and Prospects of the Exponential Economy.”
National Bureau of Economic Research, Working American Enterprise Institute, November 2015.
Paper 21974, January 2016. http://www.nber.org/ http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/
papers/w21974; and David M. Byrne, John G. Fer- Moores-law-at-50.pdf.
nald, and Marshall B. Reinsdorf. “Does the United
States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Mea- 4
Michael Mandel. “Long-Term U.S. Productivity
surement Problem?” Brookings Institute, March Growth and Mobile Broadband: The Road Ahead.”
1, 2016. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/ Progressive Policy Institute, March 2016. http://
uploads/2016/03/ByrneEtAl_ProductivityMeasure- www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/upload-
ment_ConferenceDraft.pdf. s/2016/03/2016.03-Mandel_Long-term-US-Pro-
ductivity-Growth-and-Mobile-Broadband_The-Road-
e See, for example, Robert W. Fairlie, E.J. Ready, Ahead.pdf.
Amobio Morelix and Joshua Russell. “2016: The
Kauffman Index on Startup Activity: National 5
andel’s calculations derived from Mark Boroush
M
Trends.” Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, and John Jankowski. “Update on U.S. Business
August 4, 2016. http://www.kauffman.org/~/me- Innovation: Findings from 2011 Survey.” National
dia/kauffman_org/microsites/kauffman_index/ Science Foundation, National Center for Science
startup_activity_2016/kauffman_index_startup_ac- and Engineering Statistics InfoBrief, March 2016:
tivity_national_trends_2016.pdf. 16–308. https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2016/
nsf16308/nsf16308.pdf.
f The Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
believes the housing bubble and crash exacerbated 6
Sophie Curtis. “The Car of the Future is ‘the Most
this trend. A pronounced misallocation of credit Powerful Computer You Will Ever Own.’” The Tele-
toward housing and away from other industries, graph, May 17, 2015. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
BIS argues, steered labor and investment toward technology/news/11609406/The-car-of-the-future-
less productive sectors during the boom and left is-the-most-powerful-computer-you-will-ever-own.
the non-housing economy with reduced skill levels html.
and capital after the crash. Claudio Borio, Enisse
Kharroubi, Christian Upper, and Fabrizio Zampolli. 7
his formulation was adapted from Bret Swan-
T
“Labour Reallocation and Productivity Dynamics: son. “Are the Pessimists Right About America’s
Financial Causes, Real Consequences.” Working Slow-Growth Future?” U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Paper 534, Bank of International Settlements, Foundation, February 25, 2016. https://www.us- COMING
December 2015. http://www.bis.org/publ/work534. chamberfoundation.org/blog/post/are-pessimists- PRODUCTIVITY
pdf. Alessandro Di Nola reinforces this view, arguing right-about-americas-slow-growth-future. BOOM
that a dearth of credit for small- and medium-sized page 35
8
Mandel 2016. exxonmobil_sets_record_on_ncsas_blue_wa-
ters_supercomputer. The petroleum company and
9
Erik Brynjolfsson and Shinkyu Yang. “Information supercomputing center summarized their work
Technology and Productivity: A Review of the Litera- together: “The breakthrough in parallel simula-
ture.” Advances in Computers, Academic Press tion used 716,800 processors, the equivalent
43 (1996): 179–214. http://ccs.mit.edu/papers/ of harnessing the power of 22,400 computers
CCSWP202/. with 32 processors per computer. ExxonMobil
geoscientists and engineers can now make better
10
ale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, and Jon D. Samuels.
D investment decisions by more efficiently predicting
“What Will Revive U.S. Economic Growth? Lessons reservoir performance under geological uncer-
from a Prototype Industry-Level Production tainty to assess a higher volume of alternative
Account for the United States.” Journal of Policy development plans in less time.”
Modeling, 4, no. 36 (July 2014): 654–673.
20
See Mark P. Mills. “Shale 2.0: Technology and
11
obert Solow. “We’d better watch out.” New York
R the Coming Big Data Revolution in America’s Oil
Times Book Review, July 12, 1987, page 36. http:// Fields.” Energy Policy & the Environment Report
www.standupeconomist.com/pdf/misc/solow-com- 16 (May 2015), Center for Energy Policy and the
puter-productivity.pdf. Environment, Manhattan Institute. http://www.
manhattan-institute.org/pdf/eper_16.pdf.
12
Moore’s law, named after Intel founder Gordon
Moore, refers to the tendency of silicon microchips 21
Mills 2015.
to roughly double in cost performance (because of
the industry’s remarkable ability to scale transis- 22
.S. Energy Information Administration. “Monthly
U
tors and other chip features) every 18 months to Power Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reach
two years. See Swanson 2015. Metcalfe’s law refers 27-Year Low in April.” Today in Energy, August 5,
to the observation by Ethernet inventor Robert 2015. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.
Metcalfe that the power or value of networks rises php?id=22372.
not by the number of connected nodes but by
something resembling the square of the number of 23
See Mills’ projections and also, for example, a new
nodes. This is one reason “network effects” can be claim by Pioneer Natural Resources Company that
so powerful. its wells in the Permian Basin are producing oil at
just $2 per barrel. In Terry Wade, “Pioneer Says
13
J udd Cramer and Alan B. Krueger. “Disruptive Some U.S. Fracking Costs Competitive with Sau-
Change in the Taxi Business: The Case of Uber.” dis.” Reuters, July 28, 2016. http://mobile.reuters.
Working Paper 22083, National Bureau of Econom- com/article/idUSKCN10828Q.
ic Research, March 2016. http://www.nber.org/
papers/w22083. 24
Farhad Manjoo. “Think Amazon’s Drone Deliv-
ery Idea Is a Gimmick? Think Again.” New York
14
Google. “Google Self-Driving Car Project: Monthly Times, August 10, 2016. http://www.nytimes.
Report.” July 2016. https://static.googleusercon- com/2016/08/11/technology/think-amazons-
tent.com/media/www.google.com/en//selfdriving- drone-delivery-idea-is-a-gimmick-think-again.html.
car/files/reports/report-0716.pdf.
25
ureau of Labor Statistics. “Multifactor Produc-
B
15
he Tesla Team. “Misfortune.” July 6, 2016. https://
T tivity.” https://www.bls.gov/mfp/.
www.tesla.com/blog/misfortune.
26
See, for example, Daron Acemoglu, David Autor,
16
Cramer and Krueger 2016. David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, and Brendan Price.
“Import Competition and the Great American
17
Munich Reinsurance America. “Autonomous Vehi- Employment Sag of the 2000s.” Journal of Labor
cles: Considerations for Personal and Commercial Economics, 34, no. S1 (Part 2, January 2016):
Lines Insurers.” 2016. https://www.munichre.com/ S141–S198. http://economics.mit.edu/files/9811.
site/mram-mobile/get/documents_E706434935/
mram/assetpool.mr_america/PDFs/3_Publica- 27
See, for example, Martin Neil Baily and Barry P.
tions/Autonomous_Vehicles.pdf. Bosworth. “US Manufacturing: Understanding
Its Past and Potential Future,” Journal of Eco-
18
.S. Energy Information Administration. “U.S. Nat-
U nomic Perspectives, 28, no. 1 (Winter 2014):
ural Gas Gross Withdrawals.” February 28, 2017. 3–26. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2A.htm. uploads/2016/06/us-manufacturing-past-and-po-
tential-future-baily-bosworth.pdf.
19
See, for example, “ExxonMobil Sets Record on
COMING NCSA’s Blue Waters Supercomputer.” National
PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM Center for Supercomputing Applications, February
page 36 16, 2017. http://www.ncsa.illinois.edu/news/story/
28
enters for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
C 38
Over time, many firms, industries, and jobs that
“CMS Releases 2014 National Health Expendi- we today label “physical” will in fact migrate to the
tures.” December 5, 2015. https://www.cms.gov/ “digital” side of the ledger.
Newsroom/MediaReleaseDatabase/Press-releas-
es/2016-Press-releases-items/2016-12-02.html. 39
Michael Mandel. “How the Physical Nation Is Failing
American Consumers.” Progressive Policy Insti-
29
ret Swanson. “The App-ification of Medicine: A
B tute, November 28, 2016. http://www.progressive-
Four-Faceted Information Revolution in Health.” policy.org/issues/economy/physical-nation-fail-
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, Sep- ing-american-consumers/.
tember 2015. http://entropyeconomics.com/
wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EE-The-App-ifica- 40
For an early examination of the “app economy,”
tion-of-Medicine-2.0-09.15.pdf. see Bret Swanson, “Soft Power: Zero to 60 Billion
in Four Years.” Entropy Economics, U.S. Chamber
30
ational Human Genome Research Institute. “The
N of Commerce Foundation, December 5, 2012.
Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome.” July 6, http://entropyeconomics.com/wp-content/up-
2016. https://www.genome.gov/27565109/the- loads/2012/12/Soft-Power-Zero-to-60-Billion-Bret-
cost-of-sequencing-a-human-genome/. Swanson-12.05.12.pdf.
31
See, for example, “Health Data: A Feedback Loop 41
Michael Mandel. “App Economy Jobs in the United
for Humanity.” a16z Podcast, December, 5, 2016. States (Part 1).” Progressive Policy Institute,
http://a16z.com/2016/12/05/health-data-feed- January 6, 2016. http://www.progressivepolicy.org/
back-loop-q-bio-kaditz/. slider/app-economy-jobs-part-1/.
32
The data in Figure 12 was compiled by First Trust 42
See, for example, Alberto F. Alesina, Edward L.
Advisors. “The Healthcare Dichotomy,” March 4, Glaeser, and Bruce Sacerdote. “Work and Leisure
2016. http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/ in the United States and Europe: Why So Differ-
EconomicResearch/2016/3/4/the-healthcare-di- ent?” National Bureau of Economic Research,
chotomy. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, 20. Cam-
bridge, MA: MIT Press, April 2006. http://www.
33
See, for example, the Cisco Visual Network- nber.org/chapters/c0073.pdf.
ing Index reports over the years, http://www.
cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/service-provider/ 43
J. Bradford Jensen. “Importers Are Exporters:
visual-networking-index-vni/index.html; and the Tariffs Would Hurt Our Most Competitive Firms.”
Sandvine Global Internet Phenomena reports, Peterson Institute for International Economics,
https://www.sandvine.com/trends/global-inter- December 6, 2016. https://piie.com/blogs/
net-phenomena/. trade-investment-policy-watch/importers-are-ex-
porters-tariffs-would-hurt-our-most-competitive.
34
ee, for example, Luiz André Barroso and Urs Höl-
S
zle. The Datacenter as a Computer: An Introduction 44
The U.S. government estimates that around
to the Design of Warehouse-Scale Machines. Wil- 500,000 information technology jobs remain un-
liston, VT: Morgan and Claypool Publishers, 2009. filled. See, for example, “White House Announces
http://research.google.com/pubs/pub35290.html. Doubling of TechHire Communities, and New Steps
to Give More Students and Workers Tech Skills
35
Cisco. “Cisco Global Cloud Index: Forecast and to Fuel the Next Generation of American Innova-
Methodology, 2015–2020.” http://www.cisco. tion.” The White House Fact Sheet, March 9, 2016.
com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provid- https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-
er/global-cloud-index-gci/Cloud_Index_White_Pa- office/2016/03/09/fact-sheet-white-house-an-
per.html. nounces-doubling-techhire-communities-and-new.
36
artner. “Gartner Says by 2020 ‘Cloud Shift’ Will
G 45
ichael King, Anthony Marshall, and Dave
M
Affect More Than $1 Trillion in IT Spending.” July Zaharchuk. “Pursuit of Relevance: How Higher Ed-
20, 2016. http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/ ucation Remains Viable in Today’s Dynamic World.”
id/3384720. IBM Institute for Business Value, June 2015.
https://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/gb/
37
The tech spending data is based on Bureau of en/gbe03676usen/GBE03676USEN.PDF
Economic Analysis input–output tables. Because
of the way they are constructed, individual industry 46
See, for example, Purdue University’s new “Back
data is likely to be less reliable than data on tech a Boiler” Income Share Agreement plan. https://
investment. www.purdue.edu/backaboiler/index.php.
COMING
PRODUCTIVITY
BOOM
page 37
47
ee, for example, U.S. Telecom Association,
S 55
M
ark Dumas, Thomas F. Howells III, Steve
“Broadband Investment Gains Continued in 2014,” Rosenthal, and Jon D. Samuels. “Integrated BEA/
July 24, 2015. https://www.ustelecom.org/news/ BLS Industry-Level Production Account Update.”
research-briefs/broadband-investment-gains-con- Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA Briefing,
tinued-2014; and “Historical Broadband Provider September 2015. https://bea.gov/scb/
Capex,” https://www.ustelecom.org/broadband-in- pdf/2015/09%20September/0915_integrated_in-
dustry-stats/investment/historical-broadband-pro- dustry_level_production.pdf.
vider-capex.
56
B
ureau of Labor Statistics. “Productivity and
48
See, for example, Bret Swanson. “How the Internet Costs: Fourth Quarter and Annual Averages,
Will Become the ‘Exanet.’” Forbes, February 28, 1996.” March 1997. http://www.bls.gov/news.
2017. https://www.forbes.com/sites/washington- release/history/prod2_031197.txt.
bytes/2017/02/28/how-the-internet-will-become-
the-exanet/#53ef33593f10.
49
Michael Mandel. “Obama’s Corporate Tax Blun-
der.” New York Times, June 9, 2015. http://www.
nytimes.com/2015/06/10/opinion/obamas-corpo-
rate-tax-blunder.html?_r=0.
50
See “Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code.”
Tax Foundation, June 6, 2016. http://taxfoun-
dation.org/article/options-reforming-ameri-
cas-tax-code, p. 70.
51
Ibid.
52
ee Chart 3 in James L. Gattuso and Diane Katz.
S
“Red Tape Rising 2016: Obama Regs Top $100
billion annually.” The Heritage Foundation, May
23, 2016. http://www.heritage.org/research/re-
ports/2016/05/red-tape-rising-2016-obama-regs-
top-100-billion-annually.
53
ee Bentley Coffey, Patrick McLaughlin, and
S
Pietro Peretto. “The Cumulative Cost of Reg-
ulations.” Mercatus Working Paper, Mercatus
Center at George Mason University, April 26, 2016.
https://www.mercatus.org/publication/cumula-
tive-cost-regulations. The paper estimates the U.S.
economy would be $4 trillion larger today if the
regulatory state had stopped growing in 1980. If
we assume a large portion, say half, of the GDP re-
duction is due to environmental rules, and assume
we would want to keep those rules regardless,
regulation would still be costing the U.S. economy
$2 trillion per year.
54
See, for example, Michael Mandel and Diana A.
Carew. “Regulatory Improvement Commission:
A Politically-Viable Approach to U.S. Regulato-
ry Reform.” Progressive Policy Institute, May
2013. This proposal was later introduced as
legislation in both the House and the Senate.
http://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/
uploads/2013/05/05.2013-Mandel-Carew_Regu-
latory-Improvement-Commission_A-Politically-Via-
ble-Approach-to-US-Regulatory-Reform.pdf.
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