Statistics: Grade 3, Semester 1

Statistics: Grade 3, Semester 2

Printed on October 15, 2015

Statistics: Grade 3, Semester 1
Communication, Sensing, Information, Informatics
Big Idea: Population parameters describe the underlying real-world processes that generate data we can
observe. We use statistics to estimate these underlying population parameters.

ST.3.01 - Explain and apply the principals of survey design and data collection to estimate population
parameters. (Week 01 - Week 07)

Essential Questions: ‣ How can modeling predict the future?

‣ What is randomness?
Skills:
‣ A. Distinguish between a parameter and a statistic.
‣ B. Understand the definition of a sampling distibution.
‣ C. Distinguish between population distribution, sampling distribution, and the distribution of sample
data.
‣ D. Find the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of a sample proportion for an
SRS of size n from a population having proportion p of successes.
‣ E. Use Normal approximation to calculate probabilities involving p-hat
‣ F. Use the sampling distribution of p-hat to evaluate a claim about a population proportion.
‣ G. Find the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of a sample mean x-bar from
an SRS of size n.
‣ H. Calculate probabilities involving a sample mean x-bar when the population distribution is
Normal.
‣ I. Explain how the shape of the sampling distribution of x-bar is related to the shape of the
population distribution.
‣ J. Use the central limit theorem to help find probabilities involving a sample mean x-bar.
Concepts:
‣ A. Parameter
‣ B. Sampling distribution
‣ C. Population distribution
‣ D. SRS
‣ E. p-hat
‣ F. Normal
‣ G. Central Limit Theorem
Evidence:
section (7-1) page 436-439
section (7-2) page 447-449
section (7-3) page 461- 464
Texts & References: Practical of statistics

Introduction of statistics

Basics of statistics

Printed on October 15, 2015

Capstone Connection: Communication
Grand Challenge Connections: Address the exponential population growth and prepare for the impact,
Improve the use of alternative energies to reduce our reliance on extracted fuel sources, Reduce urban
congestion and its impact, Increase opportunities for Egyptians to stay and work in Egypt, Increase industrial
base for Egypt
Topic: data collection, surveys, sampling

ST.3.02 - Differentiate between association and causation (Week 08 - Week 14)

Essential Questions: ‣ How can graphical displays be manipulated to present misleading

information?
‣ How do patterns affect your life?
‣ How are corelation and causation connected?
Skills:
‣ A. Make a scatterplot to display the relationship between two quantitative variables and recognize
outliers.
‣ B. Describe the direction, form, and strength of the overall pattern of a scatterplot.
‣ C. Calculate and interpret correlation, knowing the basic properties of correlation.
‣ D. Explain how the correlation is influenced by extreme observations.
‣ E. Use technology to find the least squares regression line.
‣ F. Calculate and interpret residuals.
‣ G. Construct and interpret residual plots to assess if a linear model is appropriate.
‣ H. Use r squared to assess how well the line fits the data.
‣ I. Identify the equation of a least squares regression line from calculator output.
‣ J. Explain why association does not imply causation.
‣ K. Recognize how the slope, y-intercept, standard deviation of the residuals, and r squared are
influenced by extreme observations.
Concepts:
‣ A. Scatterplot
‣ B. Correlation
‣ C. Least squares regression line
‣ D. Residuals
‣ E. r
Evidence:
section (3-1) page 159-164
section (3-2) page 193-200
test page 203-205
Texts & References: Practical of statistics

Introduction of statistics

Basics of statistics
Capstone Connection: differentiate between association and causation in your communication schema
Grand Challenge Connections: Address the exponential population growth and prepare for the impact,

Printed on October 15, 2015

Improve the use of alternative energies to reduce our reliance on extracted fuel sources, Reduce urban
congestion and its impact, Increase opportunities for Egyptians to stay and work in Egypt, Increase industrial
base for Egypt
Topic: association, causation, correlation, causation, graphing

Printed on October 15, 2015

Statistics: Grade 3, Semester 2
Theories, Models and Data
Big Idea: We can often use statistics to determine a level of confidence that something is true, for example,
that someone is sick, that a drug has a positive effect on disease survival, or that a population paramer falls in
a certain range (e.g. 95% confident that between 55% and 62% of voters currently support a certain
candidate). However, because correlation does not imply causation, we often need to conduct randomized
experiments to develop valid statistical statements about causes.

ST.3.03 - Explain and apply the principals of experiment design (Week 01 - Week 06)

Essential Questions: When is it significant?

Skills:
‣ A. Distinguish between an observational study and an experiment.
‣ B. Explain how a lurking variable in an observational study can lead to confounding.
‣ C. Describe a completely randomized design for an experiment.
‣ D. Explain the meaning and the purpose of blinding in an experiment.
‣ E. Distinguish between a completely randomized design and a randomized block design.
‣ F. Explain why random assignment is an important experimental design principal.
‣ G. Explain in context what "statistically significant" means.
‣ H. Know when a matched pairs experiment design is appropriate and how to implement such a
design.
‣ I. Design an experiment that could help answer a research question.
Concepts:
‣ A. Observational study
‣ B. Experiment
‣ C. Blinding
‣ D. Randomized block design
‣ E. Statistically significant
‣ F. Matched pairs experiment design
Evidence:
section (4-2) page 259-265
Texts & References: Practical of statistics

Introduction of statistics

Basics of statistics
Grand Challenge Connections: Address the exponential population growth and prepare for the impact,
Improve the use of alternative energies to reduce our reliance on extracted fuel sources, Reduce urban
congestion and its impact, Increase opportunities for Egyptians to stay and work in Egypt, Increase industrial
base for Egypt
Topic: experimental design, variables, randomization, statistical significance

Printed on October 15, 2015

ST.3.04 - Draw inferences about population parameters with appropriate levels of confidence by using
statistics (hypothesis tests, p-values, and confidence intervals).

TIME: 5 sessions (Week 07 - Week 10)

Essential Questions: What is reasonable?

Skills:
‣ A. In context, interpret tests of null hypothesis at given levels of confidence (p-values).
‣ B. Use data to conduct a test of a null hypothesis.
‣ C. Interpret a confidence level in context
‣ D. Understand that a confidence interval gives a range of plausible values for the parameter.
‣ E. Understand the importance of each of the three inference conditions - Random, Normal and
Independence
‣ F. Explain how practical issues like nonresponse, under coverage and response bias can affect the
interpretation of a confidence interval.
‣ G. Determine critical values for calculating a confidence interval using a table or calculator.
‣ H. Understand how margin of error of a confidence interval changes with the sample size and the
level of confidence.
Concepts:
‣ A. Null hypotheses
‣ B. P-values
‣ C. Confidence interval
‣ D. Inference
‣ E. Nonresponse
‣ F. Undercoverage
‣ G. Response bias
‣ H. Margin of error
Evidence:
section (8-1) page 489-492
section (9-1) 551-554
page 225,266 and 271
Texts & References: Practical of statistics

Introduction of statistics

Basics of statistics
Grand Challenge Connections: Address the exponential population growth and prepare for the
impact,Improve the use of alternative energies to reduce our reliance on extracted fuel sources,Reduce
urban congestion and its impact,Increase opportunities for Egyptians to stay and work in Egypt,Increase
industrial base for Egypt
Topic: p-values, confidence intervals, hypothesis tests

Printed on October 15, 2015

ST.3.05 - Apply Bayes' Theorem to solve problems in medical diagnosis and mathematics. (Week 11 - Week
14)

Essential Questions: What is sufficient? What is not sufficient?

Skills:
‣ A. Base rate problem: Explain why a positive or negative test result is insufficient information for
determining the probability that a particular condition (e.g. a disease) is present.
‣ B. Use Bayes' theorem to compute probability of an event (e.g. disease presence) given a test
result and a base rate.
‣ C. Use Bayes' theorem to compute conditional probabilities in non-medical as well as medical
contexts.
‣ D. Use the concepts of specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive
value to evaluate testing instruments.
Concepts:
‣ A. Base rate problem
‣ B. Baye's Theorem
‣ C. Probability
‣ D. conditional probability
Evidence:
section (5-2) page 314-317
section (5-3) page 333-337
Texts & References: Practical of statistics

Introduction of statistics

Basics of statistics
Grand Challenge Connections: Address the exponential population growth and prepare for the impact,
Improve the use of alternative energies to reduce our reliance on extracted fuel sources, Reduce urban
congestion and its impact, Increase opportunities for Egyptians to stay and work in Egypt, Increase industrial
base for Egypt
Topic: Baye's Theorem, probability, diagnosis

Printed on October 15, 2015