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EDUCATION GAP BETWEEN PARTIES WIDENS

CONSERVATIVES RETAIN SMALL BUT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LEAD

[Ottawa – September 30, 2010] – Over the last

two weeks, the Conservatives and the Liberals
HIGHLIGHTS
have seen a slight rise in their fortunes and both • National federal vote intention:
front runners have now opened a wider gap on ¤ 33.1% CPC
the other parties. The Conservatives now stand ¤ 29.9% LPC
at 33.1 points (up from 32.4) and the Liberals ¤ 13.5% NDP
are at 29.9 (up from 28.9). These gains appear ¤ 10.9% Green
¤ 10.1% BQ
to have come at the expense of the NDP, who
¤ 2.5% other
appear to be in danger of being squeezed out of
an increasingly tight two-way race. • Direction of country:
¤ 52.2% right direction
The gap between university and college ¤ 34.8% wrong direction
graduates (and, to a lesser extent, high school ¤ 13.1% DK/NR
educated) is very large and growing. The Liberals
now have a 14-point lead among the university • Direction of government:
educated, a dramatic (net 20 point) reversal of ¤ 41.1% right direction
the 6-point disadvantage seen at the outset of ¤ 47.3% wrong direction
the summer. The opposite is true among college ¤ 11.6% DK/NR
graduates, however, where the Conservatives
lead the Liberals by 17 points. Please note that the methodology is provided at the
end of this document.
Also interesting to note is the lack of connection that youth have shown with any of the federalist
parties. Outside of Quebec, where those under 25 are overwhelmingly behind the Bloc, youth are
evenly split among the other four parties. Indeed, if voting were limited to those under 25, no
party could be ruled out as a serious contender for power.

Regionally, the brief surge in Conservative support in Quebec appears to have subsided, while
Ontario is once again deadlocked in a chronic see-saw battle, which will likely determine the
outcome of the next election. The Liberals have a significant lead in the Atlantic provinces and the
Conservatives are effectively bullet-proof in the West, save BC, which is a tight three-way race.

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Top Line Results:

Federal vote intention: September 22-28

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40
33.1
29.9
30

20
13.5
10.9 10.1
10
2.5
0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided Voters; September 22-28, 2010 (n=1,976)

Weekly tracking of federal vote intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
50

40

30

20

10
Other
Line
6
0
Sep-082008
Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10
Election
Results
Note: The data on federal vote intention are based on decided voters only.
Our survey also finds that 12.8% of Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided voters; most recent data point September 22-28, 2010 (n=1,976)

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Direction of country
Q. All things considered, would you say the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Wrong direction Right direction

60

50

40

30
May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; most recent data point September 22-28, 2010 (n=half sample)

Direction of government
Q. All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong
direction?

Wrong direction Right direction

60

50

40

30
May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; most recent data point September 22-28, 2010 (n=half sample)

Page 3
Methodology:

EKOS’ weekly tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology,
which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone,
rather than telling them to an operator.

In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell
phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with both a
landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households. This
dual frame yields a near perfect unweighted distribution on age group and gender, something
almost never seen with traditional landline RDD sample or interviewer-administered surveys.

The field dates for this survey are September 22 – September 28, 2010. In total, a random
sample of 2,267 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of
1,976 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.1 percentage
points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error
margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically
weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada
according to Census data.

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Annex:

Federal vote intention: September 15-21

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40
31.7
29.3
30

20
14.6
11.8
9.7
10
3.0
0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided Voters; September 15-21, 2010 (n=1,510)

Federal vote intention: September 15-28 (2-week roll-up)

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40
32.8
29.3
30

20
14.2
11.2 9.9
10
2.6
0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided Voters; September 15-28, 2010 (n=3,486)

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