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30 July 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The United Conservative Party holds a substantial
lead over the governing NDP, nearly returning to the same levels of support
that the UCP had in January.
“The UCP have rebounded from their numbers in April and have again crossed
the 50% mark among decided and leaning voters,” said Quito Maggi, President
and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “That said, the NDP have over 30% support
and are best poised to mount a challenge to the UCP next year.”
“As it stands now, next year’s election will be a battle between the UCP and the
NDP.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP led by Jason Kenney currently
enjoy just over 52% support while the NDP led by Rachel Notley have 32.5%
support. The Alberta Party with Stephen Mandel at the helm have 5.4%. The
Liberals led by David Khan are at 4.8%, and the Greens have 3.1% support.
The poll also found that Albertans have a positive view of Kenney compared to
Notley. While respondents have +9.8% net rating of Kenney, Notley has a -12.7%
rating.
Khan, Mendel, and interim Green party leader Coral Bliss Taylor also have a net
negative favourability rating. However these numbers must be viewed in light
of the fact that over 50% of respondents either were not sure or not familiar
with these three leaders.
-30-
7.8%
2.0%
2.9%
5.0%
4.4%
47.5%
All Voters
All Voters
30.4%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters 52.1%
32.5%
46.9%
2.8%
9.4%
16.7%
33.9%
19.1%
40.7%
8.5%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
19.1%
41.7%
David Khan
Rachel Notley
Stephen Mandel Coral Bliss
30.6% Taylor
2.8%
5.6%
Favourable
16.7%
15.4% Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
27.3% 14.8%
33.9%
Rachel Notley
49.6%
Stephen Mandel Coral Bliss Taylor
22.8%
30.0%
46.6%
34.5%
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of three regions in Alberta: Calgary,
Edmonton, and the rest of Alberta. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases,
respondents were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.26% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.2%, Females: +/- 4.95%,
18-34 age group: +/- 7.97%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.53%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.04%, 65+
age group: +/- 5.69%, Calgary +/- 6.42%, Edmonton, 5.64%, Rest of Alberta: +/- 4.89%.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.