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The Outlook, Policy Choices and Our Mandate

Charts presented by William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer


Society of American Business Editors and Writers Fall Conference
City University of New York Graduate School of Journalism
New York, NY
October 1, 2010
Home Prices and Nonprime Mortgages
Percent Index, January 2000 = 100
45 240

40 Nonprime Share
of First Mortgage 200
Originations
35
(left axis)

30 160
CoreLogic House
25 Price Index
(right axis)
120
20

15 80

10
40
5

0 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1
Source: Inside Mortgage Finance and CoreLogic
Home Prices and Owners’ Equity as Percent of Home Values
Percent Index, January 2000 = 100
90 240

Owners’ Equity as
Percent of Home
80 Values 200
(left axis)

70 160

60 120

Long-Term Average:
50 65.2 80

CoreLogic House
40 Price Index 40
(right axis)

30 0
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Note: Long-Term Average is of2 Owners’
Source: Federal Reserve Board and CoreLogic Equity as Percent of Home Values.
Personal Saving Rate and Net Worth as Percent of Disposable Income
Percent Percent
15 640

Personal Saving Net Worth as Percent


Rate 600
12 of Disposable Income
(left axis) (right axis)

560
9

520

6
480

3
440

0 400
1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
3
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis
Consumption and Residential Investment as Percent of GDP
Percent Percent
77.5 77.5

75.0 75.0

72.5 72.5

70.0 70.0

Consumption and
67.5 Residential 67.5
Investment/GDP

65.0 65.0

62.5 62.5
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Saving Rate
Percent Percent
8 8

7 7

6 6

5 5
Personal Saving Rate
(post-July 2010 revisions)
4 4

3 3

2 2

1 Personal Saving Rate 1


(pre-July 2010 revisions)
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
5
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Composite Housing Affordability Index
Index = 100 Index = 100

200 200

175 175

Composite Housing
150 Affordability Index 150

125 125

100 100

75 75

50 50
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
6 for an
Note: Index = 100 when median family income qualifies
Source: National Associate of Realtors 80% mortgage on a median priced existing single-family home.
Household Balance Sheet
Percent Percent
130 5.0

120 4.8

110 4.6

4.4
100
Household 4.2
90 Liabilities/Disposable
Personal Income 4.0
80 (left axis)
3.8
70
3.6
60
Financial 3.4
Assets/Disposable
50
Personal Income 3.2
(right axis)
40 3.0

30 2.8
1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Note: Household liabilities equal home
Source: Federal Reserve Board mortgages and consumer credit.
Household Financial Obligation Ratio
Ratio Ratio
19.0 19.0

18.5 18.5

18.0 18.0
Household Financial
Obligation Ratio
17.5 17.5

17.0 17.0

16.5 16.5

16.0 16.0

15.5 15.5

15.0 15.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
8
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Mortgage Debt by Delinquency Status
Percent of $ Amount Percent of $ Amount
5.0 5.0
120+ Days Late
4.5 4.5

4.0 4.0
Severely
3.5 Derogatory 3.5

3.0 3.0

2.5 30 Days Late 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 60 Days Late 1.5

1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5
90 Days Late
0.0 0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Note: Data cover first mortgages, second mortgages, and home equity lines of credit. 9
Source: Equifax
Transition of Mortgage Accounts from 30-60 Days Late
Percent Percent
60 60

To Current
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10
To 90+ Days Late

0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
10
Source: FRBNY Equifax Panel Dataset
Non-Mortgage Debt by Delinquency
Percent Percent
7 7

6 6

Severely
5 Derogatory 5

4 4
120+ Days Late

3 3

2 30 Days Late 2

60 Days Late
1 1

90 Days Late
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
11
Source: Equifax
Senior Loan Officers Survey
Net Percent Net Percent
100 100
Tightening
Standards for
Tightening Residential
75 Standards for Mortgages 75
Consumer Credit
Cards Banks Tightening
C&I Loans
50 Tightening 50
Standards for
Commercial Real
Estate
25 25

0 0

-25 -25
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
12
Source: Federal Reserve Board
NFIB Survey: Most Important Problem
Percent Percent
37.5 37.5

30.0 30.0

22.5 Poor Sales 22.5


Financial and
Interest Rates

15.0 15.0

7.5 7.5

0.0 0.0
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
13
Source: National Federation of Independent Business
Reference Charts

14
Total Debt by Payment Status

Total Debt by Payment Status


Billions of Dollars
2005-Q1 2008-Q3 2010-Q2
Amount of Amount of Amount of
Total Debt Total Debt Percent Total Debt Percent
by by Change by Change
Payment Percent of Payment Percent of from Payment Percent of from
Status Status Total Debt Status Total Debt 2005Q1 Status Total Debt 2008Q3

Current 8,700.0 95.9% 11,400.0 91.4% 31.0% 10,340.0 88.6% -9.3%

30 Days Late 136.0 1.5% 289.0 2.3% 112.5% 234.8 2.0% -18.8%

60 Days Late 37.4 0.4% 138.0 1.1% 269.0% 106.3 0.9% -23.0%

90+ Days Late 197.9 2.2% 641.5 5.1% 224.2% 985.6 8.4% 53.6%

Total 9,071.3 100.0% 12,468.5 100.0% 37.4% 11,666.7 100.0% -6.4%


Source: FRBNY Equifax Panel Dataset

15
Total Debt by Equifax Risk Score Quintile

Total Debt by Equifax Risk Score Quintile


Billions of Dollars
2005-Q1 2008-Q3 2010-Q2
Percent Percent
Median Equifax Change Change
Risk Score of Percent of Percent of from Percent of from
Quintile Total Debt Total Debt Total Debt Total Debt 2005Q1 Total Debt Total Debt 2008Q3

807 2,021.8 22.3% 2,286.8 18.3% 13.1% 2,120.5 18.1% -7.3%

767 2,329.4 25.6% 3,105.5 24.7% 33.3% 2,919.5 25.0% -6.0%

708 2,362.2 26.0% 3,451.7 27.6% 46.1% 3,174.0 27.1% -8.0%

631 1,444.4 15.9% 2,281.9 18.4% 58.0% 2,034.7 17.4% -10.8%

539 928.0 10.2% 1,086.5 8.8% 17.1% 1,007.6 8.6% -7.3%


Missing Equifax
0.0 0.0% 288.8 2.2% N/A 435.8 3.7% 50.9%
Risk Score
Total 9,085.9 100.0% 12,501.1 100.0% 37.6% 11,692.2 100.0% -6.5%
Source: FRBNY Equifax Panel Dataset 16