TE2100 P132 EP02 Wave Conditions

Thames Estuary 2100
Wave Studies
HR Wallingford Report EX 5243
EA Study Lead: Bill Donovan
Consultants: HR Wallingford Ltd
Status:
EP2 Final Report
Date:
23/12/2005

TE2100 Key Products – Data Quality Insert
Product Name and Number: TE2100_P132_EP02_Wave Conditions in the Thames Estuary report
Study Name: Waves (HR Wallingford)
TE2100 Phase: 2 Study Ref: EP02
Product Type: Report Date of Product: 23/12/2005
Concluding Quality Statement:
Important report on wave conditions in the Thames estuary

Significance: 7‐High Technical reliability: High
Best available or superseded: Best available

Contribution to TE2100 and notes on use by others:
Baseline wave data.

Sarah Lavery, TE2100 Project Manager
20 March 2013

DOCUMENT INFORMATION
Project Thames Estuary 2100
Report title Thames Estuary 2100: Wave Studies
Client Environment Agency
Client Representative Bill Donovan
Project No. TE2100 EP2 – DTR3746
Report No. EX5243
Doc. ref. EX5243-TE2100-EP2-WAVE STUDIES
Project Manager Graham Siggers
Project Director Jane Smallman
DOCUMENT HISTORY
Date Release Prepared Approved Authorised Notes
23/12/05 1.0 npb mpd jvs
Prepared
Approved
Authorised
©
This report is a contribution to research generally and it would be imprudent for third parties to rely on it in
specific applications without first checking its suitability. Various sections of this report rely on data supplied by or
drawn from third party sources. HR Wallingford accepts no liability for loss or damage suffered by the client or
third parties as a result of errors or inaccuracies in such third party data. HR Wallingford will only accept
responsibility for the use of its material in specific projects where it has been engaged to advise upon a specific
commission and given the opportunity to express a view on the reliability of the material for the particular
applications.
Environment Agency
Thames Estuary 2100

HR Wallingford Report EX 5243
Wave Studies
December 2005
TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2 – WAVE STUDIES
vi
SUMMARY
This report provides an executive summary of wave studies undertaken as part of the
Estuary Processes theme for Thames Estuary 2100. Wave climates and extremes have
been developed, the influence of tidal currents, water levels, and changing
morphologies has been considered, and a brief review of vessel generated waves has
been undertaken. The wave studies (EP2) comprise the following elements, reported in
detail within the technical notes appended to this report:-
EP2.1 Collation, purchase and analysis of wind and wave data

EP2.2 Wave climates and extremes in the Inner Thames Estuary
EP2.3a Wave climates and extremes in the Outer Thames Estuary
EP2.3b Sensitivity of wave conditions to water level and tidal currents
EP2.4 Sensitivity of wave conditions to changes in the Outer Bank system of
channels and banks
EP2.5 Review of vessel generated waves in the Thames Estuary

vii
viii
CONTENTS
SUMMARY iii
1. Introduction 1
1.1 The EP2 wave studies 1
1.2 Structure of this report 1
2. Collation, purchase and analysis of wind and wave data (EP2.1,

reported in Technical Note EP2.2) 1
2.1 Available wind data 1
2.2 Extreme winds 2
2.3 Available measured wave data 2
3. Wave climates and extremes in the Inner Thames Estuary

(Technical Note EP2.2) 2
3.1 Annual wave climates 3
3.2 Extreme wave conditions 3
4. Wave climates and extremes in the Outer Thames Estuary

(EP2.3a reported in Technical Note EP2.3) 3
4.1 Annual wave climates in the Outer Estuary 4
4.2 Extreme wave conditions in the Outer Estuary 4
5. Sensitivity of wave conditions to water levels and tidal currents

(EP2.3b, reported in Technical Note EP2.3) 4
6. Sensitivity of wave conditions to changes in the Outer Estuary

system of channels and banks (Technical Note EP2.4) 5
7. Review of vessel generated waves (Technical Note EP2.5) 5
Figures
Figure 1 Location of wave prediction points 6
Appendices
Technical Note EP2.2 Wave climates and extremes in the Inner Estuary
Technical Note EP2.3 Wave climates and extremes in the Outer Estuary
Technical Note EP2.4 Sensitivity of Thames wave conditions to the changes in Outer
Bank system of channels and banks
Technical Note EP2.5 Vessel generated wave conditions

ix
x
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 The EP2 wave studies
This report compiles technical notes issued during the course of TE2100 wave studies
undertaken as part of the Estuary Processes theme for the Thames Estuary. The EP2
wave studies comprised the following six elements:-
EP2.1 Collation, purchase and analysis of wind and wave data

EP2.2 Wave climates and extremes in the Inner Thames Estuary
EP2.3a Wave climates and extremes in the Outer Thames Estuary
EP2.3b Sensitivity of wave conditions to water level and tidal currents
EP2.4 Sensitivity of wave conditions to changes in the Outer Thames Estuary
system of channels and banks
EP2.5 Review of vessel generated waves in the Thames Estuary
1.2 Structure of this report
Technical notes 2.2-2.5 are appended to this report, and describe in detail the approach
taken to generation of wave climates and extremes, the data and models used, and the
findings of these studies. An executive summary is provided in the sections below.
2. COLLATION, PURCHASE AND ANALYSIS OF WIND AND

WAVE DATA (EP2.1, REPORTED IN TECHNICAL NOTE EP2.2)
2.1 Available wind data
As part of EP2.1, wind data were collated from the following sources:
• measured winds at Dartford

• measured winds at Gravesend
• measured winds at Shoeburyness
• UKMO model winds.
The datasets were compared and Shoeburyness winds were selected for use by the wave
models in this study, with appropriate mark-up factors for changes in exposure,
because:
• They are measured locally and so considered representative of the wind climate
along the estuary
• The anemometer is well exposed to winds from the east – required for wave
prediction in the outer estuary
• There is long term coverage – required for extrapolation to rare events.

1
2.2 Extreme winds
For the prediction of extreme wave conditions, extreme wind conditions are required.
To reliably predict the worst case waves for each wind direction the funnelling of winds
along the estuary needs to be taken into account. Ideally, this would be provided by the
availability of long-term wind records in the Thames Estuary itself. In the absence of
any information on actual wind speeds within the tideway, it was considered appropriate
to derive a worst case extreme wind condition that could occur in any given 90 degree
sector. The assumption that this wind could occur for any direction within the sector
was then used in the derivation of the corresponding wave conditions.
The extreme wind conditions corresponding to the 0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return
periods were derived as part of the TE2100 EP7 studies (Joint probability and
interaction) and are presented in the following table.
One hour duration Shoeburyness extreme windspeeds (m/s)
Return NE Sector SE Sector SW Sector NW Sector All sectors

period (006-095°N) (096-185°N) (186-275°N) (276-005°N) (001-360°N)
(years) 1 hour duration wind speed (m/s, including mark-up for exposure)
0.1 13.2 13.6 16.4 13.9 16.7
1 15.5 16.7 19.4 16.9 19.5
10 17.5 19.5 22.0 19.4 22.0
100 19.2 22.0 24.4 21.7 24.4
2.3 Available measured wave data
Wave data records from the CEFAS WARPBUOY waverider, covering the period
19/3/02 to 13/7/02, were available and used to calibrate / validate the SWAN model.
No data were available at other locations. During the course of these studies, the
Environment Agency commissioned 3 bed-mounted acoustic recorders in the nearshore
zone at Clacton, Dengie and Foulness, and a waverider buoy situated approximately
50km offshore at Kentish Knock. These, however, have not yet yielded data for the
purpose of model validation.
3. WAVE CLIMATES AND EXTREMES IN THE INNER THAMES

ESTUARY (TECHNICAL NOTE EP2.2)
The HINDWAVE wind wave prediction model was run using processed Shoeburyness
wind data to derive wave conditions at 21 locations in the section of the Thames Estuary
between Erith and East Tilbury (Lower Hope Reach). Ten locations were on the
northern bank of the estuary (N1-N10) and eleven locations were on the southern bank
(S1-S11), as shown in Figure 1. At each location, the following were produced:
• Annually averaged wave climates

• Extreme wave conditions for the 0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return periods

2
3.1 Annual wave climates
Annual wave climates are described in detail in Technical Note EP2.2. From the wave
climate tables presented, it is seen that Location N10 has the largest waves and Location
N8 has the lowest waves along the north bank, and Location S11 has the largest waves
and Location S6 has the lowest waves along the south bank.
At all locations mean wave periods are less than 2.5 seconds.
3.2 Extreme wave conditions
Tables 22 to 31 (Technical Note EP2.2) present the extreme wave conditions along the
northern bank, Tables 32 to 42 the extreme wave conditions along the southern bank.
From these tables it is observed that along the northern bank the largest 1, 10 and 100
year return period conditions occur at location N10 with significant wave heights (Hs)
of 0.53m, 0.61m and 0.67m respectively. These conditions have associated wave
directions of between 210°N and 240°N. Along the southern bank the largest 1, 10 and
100 year return period conditions occur at location S11 with significant wave heights
(Hs) of 0.55m, 0.64m and 0.71m respectively. These conditions have associated wave
directions of between 330°N and 360°N.
4. WAVE CLIMATES AND EXTREMES IN THE OUTER THAMES

ESTUARY (EP2.3A REPORTED IN TECHNICAL NOTE EP2.3)
Extending from Lower Hope Reach seawards to Southend, natural waves are a
combination of wind waves generated locally and waves that propagate from offshore
over the sandbanks in the Outer Thames. These waves depend on a number of forcing
parameters including:
• Offshore waves in the southern North Sea

• Local winds in the reach
• Winds in the Outer Thames
• State of the tide.
The SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) 3rd generation wave transformation model
was used to represent both wave generation due to winds and transformation over the
sandbanks in the Outer Thames (see Section 3). As part of EP7 several wind data
sources were analysed. For the SWAN model the most applicable source of wind data
was UKMO model winds from the Thames Approaches (see Section 2).
The HR Wallingford HINDWAVE wind wave prediction model set up as part of EP2.2
was used in combination with Shoeburyness wind records to account for local wind
waves (see Section 3).
Wave conditions at 7 locations, (N11-N13 and S12-S15 Figure 1) were derived. At

each location the following were produced:

• Extreme wave conditions for the 0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return periods.
3
4.1 Annual wave climates in the Outer Estuary
From Tables 1 to 3 in Technical Note EP2.3, representing the wave climate along the
northern bank of the Outer Estuary, it is predicted that annually for approximately 99%
of the time significant wave heights are 0.6m or less at location N11, 0.7m or less at
N12 and 0.8m or less at N13. On an annual basis the highest significant wave heights at
N11, N12 and N13 are 0.9m, 0.9m and 1.2m respectively.
Similar comments can be made for the southern bank locations. From Tables 4 to 7 in
Technical Note EP2.3 it is seen that for 99% of the time significant wave heights are
less than 0.6m at S12 and S13, 0.7m at S14 and 0.9m at S15. The highest significant
wave height occurring on an annual basis is at S12, S13, S14 and S15 are 0.8m, 0.9m,
1.0m and 1.3m respectively.
4.2 Extreme wave conditions in the Outer Estuary
It is observed that waves generated in the Outer Estuary, from the east, result in the
largest waves at all locations. Along the northern bank the largest 1, 10 and 100 year
return period conditions occur at location N13 with significant wave heights (Hs) of
1.08m, 1.19m and 1.23m respectively. Along the southern bank the largest 1, 10 and
100 year return period conditions occur at location S15 with significant wave heights
(Hs) of 1.14m, 1.31m and 1.41m respectively.
5. SENSITIVITY OF WAVE CONDITIONS TO WATER LEVELS

AND TIDAL CURRENTS (EP2.3B, REPORTED IN TECHNICAL
NOTE EP2.3)
Wave climates and extremes were generated assuming a still water level of Mean High
Water Springs. The sensitivity of the predicted wave climates and extremes (at the
prediction points) to assumed water levels and tidal currents was investigated.
The sensitivity tests to currents showed, at almost all the points of interest, that the
highest waves occur at MHWS (the one exception is S12, where waves are 2cm higher
during the ebb tide). It has also been shown that waves in the centre of the estuary are
higher during an ebb tide, compared with MHWS and a flood tide.
The sensitivity tests to water level showed that for the inner points in the Outer Estuary,
for the 100 year joint probability conditions (water level / windspeed), significant wave
heights were highest for the (MHWS / 100 year return period wind speed) combination.
For the most exposed locations N13, S14 and S15, the (10 year return period wind
speed/ 10 year return period water level) resulted in the highest waves. The largest
difference between extremes presented (for MHWS) and those investigated during these
sensitivity tests was approximately +0.2m.
The assumptions behind the predicted wave climates and extremes are thus valid. It
should be recognised, however, that wave conditions further inshore may well be

4
dependent on water level (e.g. at the toe of defence structures fronting onto intertidal
areas), and that wave conditions in the channels are affected by currents.
6. SENSITIVITY OF WAVE CONDITIONS TO CHANGES IN THE

OUTER ESTUARY SYSTEM OF CHANNELS AND BANKS
(TECHNICAL NOTE EP2.4)
Extreme wave conditions corresponding to the 0.1 and 100 year return periods were
derived at 7 locations (situated between Lower Hope Reach (East Tilbury) and
Southend) for two different Outer Estuary morphologies:
• The bathymetry in 1909

• Present day bathymetry with the banks and channels in the approaches to the
Thames increased in depth by 1m.
Generally the results show that there is little sensitivity of wave conditions at the
prediction points (less than four centimetres Hs) to the changes in the Outer Estuary
system of channels and banks modelled. For each morphology considered, the largest
significant wave heights predicted were for location S15, with a 100 year return period
significant wave height of 1.41m.
There are, however, significant local changes in wave conditions as a result of changing
morphologies (e.g. changing exposure of nearby shorelines to waves from a certain
direction).
7. REVIEW OF VESSEL GENERATED WAVES (TECHNICAL

NOTE EP2.5)
A review of vessel generated waves in the Thames is described in Technical Note
EP2.5. Three days of data from the PLA vessel traffic system were recorded, giving
numbers of vessels of different types, loads and speeds crossing several transects in the
Thames Estuary up to the Thames Barrier.
Average vessel generated waves at the shoreline in these parts of the Thames Estuary
are predicted to be small (H = 0.04 to 0.15m). In the outer estuary, they are much
smaller than naturally occurring waves with the same probability of occurrence, while
in the inner estuary (upstream of Gravesend) they become increasingly important.
Due to the variability in vessel behaviour, substantially larger than average waves may
sometimes be generated. Worst-case wave heights of up to H =1.17m have been
predicted during this analysis. Based on fairly conservative assumptions it is shown
that the maximum vessel-generated wave conditions could exceed naturally occurring
wave heights with the same probability of occurence, though it should be remembered
that the duration of any given vessel-generated wave event would be brief.

5
Point 541
UKMO
S15
N13
S14
N12
S13
S12
S11
N11
S10
N10
N9
S9
S8
N8
S7
N7
S5 S6
N6
S4
N5
N4
S3
N3
S2
S1
N2
N1
Figure 1 Location of wave prediction points

6
APPENDICES

7
8
Thames Estuary 2100
Wave conditions in the Thames
Estuary
Technical Note EP2.2
Wave climates and extremes in the Inner

Estuary
Status:
Date:
15/06/2005
Environment Agency
Thames Estuary 2100

Wave climates and extremes in the Inner Estuary
June 2005
TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2.2 – WAVE CLIMATES AND EXTREMES IN THE INNER
ESTUARY ii
SUMMARY
Wave action is a key factor contributing to the flood risk due to wave overtopping and
defence loading. This technical note describes the assessment of wind waves in the
Upper Thames Estuary for reaches T2 and T3 between Erith Reach and Lower Hope
Reach.
Wave climates and extremes were derived for 21 locations (Figure 1). The wind data
collected in EP2.1 and analysed in EP7 fed into EP2.2.
ESTUARY iii
ESTUARY iv
CONTENTS
SUMMARY iii
1. Introduction 1
2. Winds 1
3. Waves 2
3.1 HINDWAVE wind wave prediction model 2
3.2 Discussion of results 3
4. Conclusions and Recommendations 5
Tables
Table 1a Annual nearshore wave climate – position N1 7

Table 1b Annual nearshore wave climate – position N1 7
Table 11a Annual nearshore wave climate – position S1 17
Table 11b Annual nearshore wave climate – position S1 17
ESTUARY v
Table 22 Extreme significant wave heights (m) at Position N1 28
Table 32 Extreme significant wave heights (m) at Position S1 33
ESTUARY vi
Figures
ESTUARY vii
ESTUARY viii
1. INTRODUCTION
Natural waves in the tideway reaches T2 and T3 between Erith Reach and Lower Hope
Reach are wind generated. In order to assess these wave conditions a reliable wind
climate is required. Several wind data sources were analysed as part of EP7 from which
the Shoeburyness dataset was selected as preferred source of winds (see Section 2).
Wave conditions at 21 locations, (N1-N10 and S1-S11 Figure 1) were derived using the
HR HINDWAVE wind wave prediction model and the Shoeburyness wind data. At

• Extreme wave conditions for the 0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return periods
A description of the methodology used and the predicted wave conditions is presented
in Section 3.
2. WINDS
Wind data
As part of EP2.1, wind data were collated from the following sources:
• measured winds at Dartford

• measured winds at Gravesend
• measured winds at Shoeburyness
• UKMO model winds.
A comparison of these data was undertaken in EP7 and Shoeburyness was selected for
use in this study because:
• It is measured locally and so representative of the wind climate along the estuary
• The anemometer is well exposed to winds from the east – required for wave
prediction in the outer estuary
• There is long term coverage – required for extrapolation to rare events.
The data set covered the following periods:
• Early Shoeburyness 1970-1983

• Late Shoeburyness 1997-2005
Mark-up factors
The comparison showed that the Shoeburyness records were approximately 10% lower
for the sectors 200°N to 10°N. In addition to this, to allow for the fact that wind speeds
measured over land are lower than those measured over water, the winds were marked
up by a further 10% for all direction sectors.
Therefore the mark-up factors used were:
• 10% increase for wind direction bands 20°N to 190°N
ESTUARY 1
• 20% increase for wind direction bands 200°N to 10°N
Extremes
To reliably predict the worst case waves for each wind direction the funnelling of winds
along the estuary needs to be taken into account. In the absence of any information on
actual wind speeds within the tideway, it was considered appropriate to derive a worst
case extreme wind condition that could occur in any given 90 degree sector. The
assumption that this wind could occur for any direction within the sector was then used
in the derivation of the corresponding wave conditions.
periods were derived as part of EP7 and are presented in the following table. They
include the mark-up factors listed above.
One hour duration Shoeburyness extreme windspeeds (m/s)
Return NE Sector SE Sector SW Sector NW Sector All sectors

period (006-095°N) (096-185°N) (186-275°N) (276-005°N) (001-360°N)
(years) 1 hour duration wind speed (m/s, with mark-up for exposure)
0.1 13.2 13.6 16.4 13.9 16.7
1 15.5 16.7 19.4 16.9 19.5
10 17.5 19.5 22.0 19.4 22.0
100 19.2 22.0 24.4 21.7 24.4
1000 20.7 24.3 26.6 23.8 26.4
Please note that due to the fact that the Shoeburyness wind data covered a period of 21
years, the 1000 year return period wind conditions can only be considered as a best
estimate of that event.
3. WAVES
The HINDWAVE model and Shoeburyness wind data were used to derive wave
conditions at 21 locations in reaches T2 and T3, shown on Figure 1. Ten locations were
on the northern bank of the estuary (N1-N10) and eleven locations were on the southern
bank (S1-S11).
3.1 HINDWAVE wind wave prediction model
The HINDWAVE model was developed at HR Wallingford to hindcast wave conditions

based on wind records for the area.
The model uses the wave growth theory derived during the Joint North Sea Wave
Project (JONSWAP). When considering fully developed seas, the more appropriate
Pierson and Moskowitz formula is applied. It has been observed that wind generated
waves show some directional spreading about their mean direction of propagation.
Wind travelling over a water surface transmits energy to the water in directions either
side of its own direction. The model accounts for this using Seymour's method, which
allows for directional spreading by incorporating a standard spreading function. The
amount of spreading about the mean depends on the shape of the wave generation area.
ESTUARY 2
The model requires, as input, information on the size and shape of the wave generation
area and hourly sequential wind data from a local source.
Fetches were measured radially at 10 degree intervals from each of the 21 locations, to
the surrounding river banks. Admiralty Charts 1186 and 2151 were used for this
purpose.
The hourly marked-up Shoeburyness wind data (Section 2) was used in combination
with these fetches to derive annually averaged wave climates at each location. In
addition to this, the extreme Shoeburyess wind speeds (Section 2) were used to derive
extreme wave conditions corresponding to the 0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return
periods.
3.2 Discussion of results
3.2.1 Annual wave climates
The annual wave climates presented in this technical note are representative of the
general wave climate at each location and can be used to assess the average frequency
of occurrence of particular wave heights and directions on an annual basis.
The annual wave climates for locations N1-N10 and S1-S11 are presented in Tables 1 to
21 as tables of significant wave height against mean wave direction and tables of
significant wave height against mean wave period. These data are presented in parts per
hundred thousand in the main body of each table and parts per thousand for the total
counts for each table column and can be interpreted as shown in the following example.
Table 1a (reproduced below) presents the annually averaged wave climate for location
N1 in terms of significant wave height and mean wave direction. From this table it is
observed that waves with a significant wave height of between 0.0m and 0.1m and with
a wave direction from between 150°N and 180°N have an occurrence of 10429 parts per
hundred thousand each year. That is to say waves of less than 0.1m with a wave
direction from between 150°N and 180°N will occur for 10.4% of the time each year.
Also from Table 1a it is observed that waves with a wave direction from between 150°N
and 180°N occur 107 parts per thousand each year. This is equivalent to 10.7% of the
time per year.
In addition to the above, column 3 (P(H>H1) of each table gives the proportion of time
that a particular wave height is exceeded in each year. For example Table 1a shows that
a wave height of 0.1m is exceed for 39.0% of the year.
ESTUARY 3
Annual nearshore wave climate – position NI
Data in parts per hundred thousand
Hs is the significant wave height in metres
P(H>H1) is the probability of Hs exceeding H1
Based on HINDWAVE predictions for January 1970 - December 2004
H1 To H2 P(H>H1) Wave direction in degrees North
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.92188 100 0 0 0 0 10429 9766 5671 2061 3212 8704 13223
0.10 0.20 0.39022 0 0 0 0 0 276 9779 9954 3217 2986 8127 1202
0.20 0.30 0.03481 0 0 0 0 0 1 1234 673 148 218 947 48
0.30 0.40 0.00211 0 0 0 0 0 0 115 8 3 11 72 1
0.40 0.50 0.00002 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
Parts per thousand 1 0 0 0 0 107 209 163 54 64 179 145
for each direction
From Tables 1 to 10 generally it is observed that along the northern bank of the estuary
the highest significant wave height occuring on an annual basis is 0.6m. Location N10
has the largest waves (up to 0.7m) and Location N8 has the lowest waves (up to 0.4m).
Similar comments can be made for the southern bank locations. From Tables 11 to 21 it
is seen that generally the highest significant wave height occuring on an annual basis is
0.6m. Location S11 has the largest waves (up to 0.7m) and Location S6 has the lowest
waves (up to 0.4m).
3.2.2 Extreme wave conditions
The extreme wave conditions presented in this technical note can be used for design
purposes during assessment of flood risk due to wave overtopping from natural wind
waves and defence loading.
The extreme wave conditions corresponding to the 0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return
period wind conditions (Section 2) are presented in Tables 22 to 42. Results are
presented for 30 degree wave direction sectors as a significant wave height and mean
wave period (in brackets). For each wave condition presented the wave direction can be
assumed to take on any value within that sector.
Tables 22 to 31 present the wave conditions along the northern bank, Tables 32 to 42
the wave conditions along the southern bank. From these tables it is observed that along
the northern bank the largest 1, 10 and 100 year return period conditions occur at
location N10 with significant wave heights (Hs) of 0.53m, 0.61m and 0.67m
respectively. These conditions have associated wave directions of between 210°N and
240°N. Along the southern bank the largest 1, 10 and 100 year return period conditions
occur at location S11 with significant wave heights (Hs) of 0.55m, 0.64m and 0.71m
respectively. These conditions have associated wave directions of between 330°N and
360°N
The 1000 year return period wave conditions should only be considered as a good
estimate based on the available length of wind records.
ESTUARY 4
4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Annually averaged wave climates and extreme wave conditions corresponding to the
0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return periods were derived at 21 locations in the Tideway
reaches T2 and T3.
The annual wave climates (Tables 1 to 21) are representative of the general natural
wave climate at each location. The extreme wave conditions (Tables 22 to 42) can be
used for design purposes during assessment of flood risk due to natural wave
overtopping and defence loading.
For the annually averaged wave climates significant wave heights were generally less
than 0.6m at these locations. The largest significant wave heights predicted were for
location S11, with a 100 year return period significant wave height of 0.71m.
No account was taken of vessel generated waves being reviewed under EP2.5.
It is recommended that 1000 year return period wave conditions presented (Tables 22 to
42) should be treated with caution due to the length of the source data being used.
ESTUARY 5
ESTUARY
UKMO
N13
Point 541
N12
N11
N1
N2
S13 S14
S12
N3 N6 S15
S1 S2
N5
N4
N10
S5 S6 N7
N9
S3 N8
S11
S4
S7 S10
S8
S9
6
Table 1a Annual nearshore wave climate – position N1
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.92188 100 0 0 0 0 10429 9766 5671 2061 3212 8704 13223
0.10 0.20 0.39022 0 0 0 0 0 276 9779 9954 3217 2986 8127 1202
0.20 0.30 0.03481 0 0 0 0 0 1 1234 673 148 218 947 48
0.30 0.40 0.00211 0 0 0 0 0 0 115 8 3 11 72 1
0.40 0.50 0.00002 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
for each direction
7
Table 1b Annual nearshore wave climate – position N1
H1 To H2 P(H>H1) Zero-crossing wave period in seconds (Tz)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.92188 0 26096 27070 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.39022 0 0 35527 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.03481 0 0 2713 557 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00211 0 0 8 202 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00002 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Parts per thousand 0 261 653 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
for each wave period
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.93538 0 5 9384 6609 3424 1357 2243 10843 19505 65 0 0
0.10 0.20 0.40105 0 0 356 8972 1335 1252 4068 14906 5397 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.03819 0 0 5 1302 163 153 711 1112 130 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00243 0 0 0 60 12 1 31 134 4 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
for each direction
8
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.93538 0 21311 32122 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.40105 0 0 36271 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.03819 0 0 2878 697 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00243 0 0 0 242 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00001 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94191 0 0 0 26 17982 2980 4760 4206 5127 9913 10725 0
0.10 0.20 0.38471 0 0 0 0 5198 2477 4732 3693 3941 13289 951 0
0.20 0.30 0.04191 0 0 0 0 327 359 472 167 146 2399 18 0
0.30 0.40 0.00303 0 0 0 0 30 7 4 0 1 246 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00015 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 13 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
for each direction
9
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94191 0 12575 42341 804 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.38471 0 0 32141 2139 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.04191 0 0 1681 2206 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00303 0 0 3 285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00015 0 0 0 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00001 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94952 0 0 0 12256 8090 2921 2970 2150 4482 13271 2257 0
0.10 0.20 0.46554 0 0 0 1623 3124 2174 6341 5948 6154 14658 10 0
0.20 0.30 0.06520 0 0 0 21 405 486 1082 533 587 2914 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00492 0 0 0 1 23 15 38 7 19 352 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00038 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 36 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
for each direction
10
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94952 0 12201 36152 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.46554 0 0 37810 2224 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.06520 0 0 3614 2415 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00492 0 0 0 453 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00038 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00001 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.90040 615 10434 4579 2954 1831 3565 31362 2840 0 0 0 0
0.10 0.20 0.31861 0 1121 7894 2306 994 1539 12378 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.05629 0 31 2444 285 174 673 1651 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00371 0 0 272 23 6 14 55 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
for each direction
11
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.90040 0 21687 36492 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.31861 0 0 26152 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.05629 0 0 3837 1420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00371 0 0 0 370 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00001 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.90003 0 0 1144 13055 5743 678 596 9604 12484 450 0 0
0.10 0.20 0.46247 0 0 0 1382 6014 1879 2538 19587 1063 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.13786 0 0 0 43 1197 571 1438 8675 19 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.01841 0 0 0 0 83 99 183 1301 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00175 0 0 0 0 8 0 16 148 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00003 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
for each direction
12
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.90003 0 19722 24034 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.46247 0 0 32462 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.13786 0 0 4519 7425 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.01841 0 0 0 1666 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00175 0 0 0 172 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00003 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.95067 38 24 5 3479 10914 6763 4156 5249 4764 48261 5889 865
0.10 0.20 0.38096 0 0 0 0 1039 3206 6210 4659 6406 3419 9712 0
0.20 0.30 0.03444 0 0 0 0 15 277 619 177 220 525 1473 0
0.30 0.40 0.00138 0 0 0 0 0 3 21 0 3 45 65 0
0.40 0.50 0.00002 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
for each direction
13
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.95067 0 27776 29145 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.38096 0 0 34503 148 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.03444 0 0 2479 827 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00138 0 0 17 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00002 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94869 0 0 0 17518 3126 2703 2621 7826 7792 20858 0 0
0.10 0.20 0.32425 0 0 0 6649 1155 1147 2186 6003 8121 5047 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.02117 0 0 0 654 44 46 108 227 394 559 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00086 0 0 0 47 1 0 1 1 12 25 0 0
for each direction
14
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94869 0 23320 37601 1523 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.32425 0 0 29010 1296 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.02117 0 0 1300 732 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00086 0 0 3 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94309 0 0 9610 3714 2707 1523 1519 3862 19691 90 0 0
0.10 0.20 0.51591 0 0 4856 6747 1596 1745 2884 9803 15886 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.08075 0 0 694 1282 343 221 549 2677 1377 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00932 0 0 118 347 11 6 108 156 127 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00061 0 0 13 41 0 0 1 2 4 0 0 0
for each direction
15
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94309 0 6399 34780 1539 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.51591 0 0 39178 4333 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.08075 0 0 3781 3345 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00932 0 0 0 846 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00061 0 0 0 55 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.95485 608 10712 920 1277 2085 1159 1374 15715 814 34 48 40
0.10 0.20 0.60700 0 6107 3012 4015 1476 945 3911 21220 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.20015 0 4152 829 384 199 294 1809 7882 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.04466 0 868 108 28 20 35 333 2671 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00404 0 49 0 0 1 0 24 319 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
16
for each direction

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.95485 0 4851 25847 4081 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.60700 0 0 30988 9644 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.20015 0 0 2991 12372 186 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.04466 0 0 0 3955 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00404 0 0 0 256 137 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00011 0 0 0 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.00001 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Table 11a Annual nearshore wave climate – position S1
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.87747 6027 11807 0 0 0 0 0 0 24702 11572 4035 3173

0.10 0.20 0.26429 2710 320 0 0 0 0 0 0 372 15325 2725 1993
0.20 0.30 0.02984 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2289 424 88
0.30 0.40 0.00146 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 118 20 0
0.40 0.50 0.00007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
for each direction
17
Table 11b Annual nearshore wave climate – position S1
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.87747 0 21717 39495 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.26429 0 0 22942 502 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.02984 0 0 1604 1234 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00146 0 0 0 139 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00007 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.75905 1957 820 2447 15411 4695 0 0 0 0 0 5781 24050
0.10 0.20 0.20744 1938 1929 2795 8088 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3987
0.20 0.30 0.02007 49 107 240 1406 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 92
0.30 0.40 0.00113 1 0 0 111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00001 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
for each direction
18
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.75905 0 18300 34158 2678 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.20744 0 0 17111 1615 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.02007 0 0 688 1202 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00113 0 0 0 102 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00001 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.86987 766 944 3601 14735 0 0 0 0 0 5309 28260 2479
0.10 0.20 0.30891 1035 1500 6301 4512 0 0 0 0 0 0 10853 1686
0.20 0.30 0.05005 28 55 1833 483 0 0 0 0 0 0 2062 130
0.30 0.40 0.00414 1 0 174 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 168 4
0.40 0.50 0.00007 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
for each direction
19
Total number of hours = 192840
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.86987 0 13686 42090 319 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.30891 0 0 24010 1877 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.05005 0 0 1480 3111 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00414 0 0 1 406 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00007 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.87316 917 9763 5043 0 0 0 0 0 476 32570 5869 651
0.10 0.20 0.32028 2556 7975 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3473 10181 1385
0.20 0.30 0.06456 610 2029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 309 2705 166
0.30 0.40 0.00638 22 159 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 387 6
0.40 0.50 0.00039 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 0
0.50 0.60 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
for each direction
20
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.87316 0 15436 39845 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.32028 0 0 24829 742 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.06456 0 0 1395 4423 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00638 0 0 0 598 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00039 0 0 0 38 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00001 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.93083 7223 11880 0 0 0 0 0 14078 5466 4032 3878 1919
0.10 0.20 0.44606 3269 326 0 0 0 0 0 10601 14100 2531 2608 1697
0.20 0.30 0.09475 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 3207 4775 362 205 89
0.30 0.40 0.00782 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 310 404 28 1 0
0.40 0.50 0.00038 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 37 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
for each direction
21
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.93083 0 20446 28029 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.44606 0 0 34363 768 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.09475 0 0 5510 3183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00782 0 0 0 744 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00038 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00001 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.92699 1147 1947 2996 4948 18678 0 0 0 0 6165 30445 3288
0.10 0.20 0.23084 1316 2650 3093 5163 1942 0 0 0 0 0 4881 2426
0.20 0.30 0.01613 39 121 341 548 148 0 0 0 0 0 250 117
0.30 0.40 0.00048 1 0 0 41 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
for each direction
22
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.92699 0 22543 45837 1235 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.23084 0 0 20958 514 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.01613 0 0 1081 483 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00048 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.83317 577 722 6325 10321 0 0 0 0 0 5721 27345 2824
0.10 0.20 0.29482 315 431 10034 684 0 0 0 0 0 0 8828 3857
0.20 0.30 0.05333 4 5 2178 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1910 644
0.30 0.40 0.00586 0 0 303 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 222 49
0.40 0.50 0.00012 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4
for each direction
23
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.83317 0 15756 37767 313 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.29482 0 0 20430 3714 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.05333 0 0 501 4243 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00586 0 0 0 550 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00012 0 0 0 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.89530 1115 1372 13419 1891 0 0 0 0 910 28449 9608 1623
0.10 0.20 0.31142 398 1232 9567 0 0 0 0 0 0 1669 11605 483
0.20 0.30 0.06189 3 63 3225 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 1895 11
0.30 0.40 0.00957 0 0 750 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 151 0
0.40 0.50 0.00056 0 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
for each direction
24
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.89530 0 17433 39822 1131 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.31142 0 0 21910 3013 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.06189 0 0 374 4822 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.00957 0 0 0 753 148 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00056 0 0 0 3 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.88127 1548 1561 13823 709 0 0 0 0 0 33085 9456 1407
0.10 0.20 0.26538 1359 2520 6018 0 0 0 0 0 0 3202 4715 1302
0.20 0.30 0.07421 59 1261 3944 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 835 97
0.30 0.40 0.01115 8 112 726 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 5
0.40 0.50 0.00250 0 0 248 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00002 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
for each direction
25
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.88127 0 15691 45645 255 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.26538 0 0 16998 2119 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.07421 0 0 1095 5211 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.01115 0 0 0 862 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00250 0 0 0 177 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00002 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.93020 2125 3651 8888 0 0 0 0 0 23090 6364 1373 716
0.10 0.20 0.46815 4971 5530 263 0 0 0 0 0 6987 13591 1742 1795
0.20 0.30 0.11935 2171 2669 0 0 0 0 0 0 463 2986 479 343
0.30 0.40 0.02825 823 898 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 817 17 32
0.40 0.50 0.00216 52 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 94 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00022 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
for each direction
26
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.93020 0 6630 36193 3382 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.46815 0 0 25230 9641 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.11935 0 0 1262 7830 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.02825 0 0 0 2573 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00216 0 0 0 77 116 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00022 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.95420 4479 2610 5233 3998 2502 365 278 3593 13914 1336 552 1772
0.10 0.20 0.54786 5366 1761 728 106 11 0 0 13 19649 2933 1705 3002
0.20 0.30 0.19513 3348 188 2 0 0 0 0 0 9243 1117 612 1902
0.30 0.40 0.03100 895 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1247 157 68 330
0.40 0.50 0.00400 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 249 10 1 26
0.50 0.60 0.00045 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 1 0 4
0.60 0.70 0.00005 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
27
for each direction

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.95420 0 15452 25181 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.54786 0 0 30369 4905 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.19513 0 0 1817 14596 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.03100 0 0 0 2683 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.00400 0 0 0 229 126 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.00045 0 0 0 1 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.00005 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Table 22 Extreme significant wave heights (m) at Position N1
Wave sector (degrees North)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - - - - - 0.18 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.27
(1.40s) (1.47s) (1.39s) (1.34s) (1.34s) (1.53s) (1.46s)
1 - - - - - 0.22 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.37 0.33
(1.52s) (1.57s) (1.58s) (1.44s) (1.44s) (1.64s) (1.60s)
10 - - - - - 0.26 0.41 0.40 0.37 0.37 0.43 0.34
(1.61s) (1.62s) (1.56s) (1.50s) (1.51s) (1.71s) (1.65s)
100 - - - - - 0.29 0.45 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.48 0.38
(1.68s) (1.71s) (1.63s) (1.56s) (1.61s) (1.80s) (1.73s)
1000 - - - - - 0.32 0.50 0.48 0.45 0.45 0.53 0.41
(1.75s) (1.75s) (1.68s) (1.61s) (1.66s) (1.88s) (1.79s)
Key: (s) Corresponding mean wave period for extreme wave height
28
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - - 0.20 0.31 0.28 0.25 0.30 0.31 0.29 - - -
(1.39s) (1.56s) (1.45s) (1.31s) (1.41s) (1.49s) (1.51s)
1 - - 0.24 0.39 0.35 0.31 0.35 0.37 0.34 - - -
(1.90s) (1.68s) (1.57s) (1.43s) (1.50s) (1.57s) (1.61s)
10 - - 0.25 0.45 0.41 0.36 0.41 0.42 0.39 - - -
(1.52s) (1.79s) (1.66s) 1.51(s) (1.59s) (1.64s) (1.69s)
100 - - 0.28 0.51 0.46 0.41 0.46 0.47 0.43 - - -
(1.59s) (1.86s) (1.74s) (1.58s) (1.65s) (1.71s) (1.76s)
1000 - - 0.30 0.56 0.52 0.45 0.50 0.51 0.47 - - -
(1.64s) (1.94s) (1.80s) (1.64s) (1.71s) (1.77s) (1.82s)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - - - - 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.22 -
(1.61s) (1.45s) (1.32s) (1.26s) (1.42s) (1.59s) (1.56s)
1 - - - - 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.29 0.35 0.41 0.28 -
(1.75s) (1.57s) (1.41s) (1.35s) (1.53s) (1.80s) (1.75s)
10 - - - - 0.43 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.41 0.47 0.33 -
(1.85s) (1.66s) (1.48s) (1.42s) (1.62s) (1.90s) (1.87s)
100 - - - - 0.48 0.45 0.40 0.37 0.42 0.53 0.38 -
(1.94s) (1.74s) (1.54s) (1.47s) (1.58s) (1.99s) (1.98s)
1000 - - - - 0.53 0.50 0.44 0.40 0.46 0.58 0.42 -
(2.02s) (1.82s) (1.60s) (1.52s) (1.65s) (2.06s) (2.07s)
29
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - - - 0.21 0.29 0.28 0.30 0.29 0.35 0.39 0.14 -
(1.44s) (1.48s) (1.40s) (1.42s) (1.39s) (1.58s) (1.68s) (1.22s)
1 - - - 0.27 0.36 0.34 0.36 0.34 0.42 0.46 0.18 -
(1.58s) (1.60s) (1.52s) (1.51s) (1.48s) (1.69s) (1.80s) (1.36s)
10 - - - 0.31 0.42 0.40 0.41 0.39 0.48 0.52 0.16 -
(1.67s) (1.70s) (1.61s) (1.58s) (1.55s) (1.78s) (1.89s) (1.43s)
100 - - - 0.35 0.48 0.45 0.46 0.44 0.54 0.58 0.18 -
(1.75s) (1.76s) (1.68s) (1.66s) (1.62s) (1.85s) (1.96s) (1.50s)
1000 - - - 0.39 0.53 0.50 0.50 0.48 0.59 0.63 0.20 -
(1.82s) (1.82s) (1.75s) (1.72s) (1.68s) (1.92s) (2.03s) (1.55s)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - 0.23 0.32 0.30 0.27 0.27 0.32 - - - - -
1.42(s) (1.56s) (1.48s) (1.38s) (1.40s) (1.52s)
1 - 0.27 0.38 0.37 0.33 0.33 0.38 - - - - -
(1.51s) (1.66s) (1.61s) (1.49s) (1.51s) (1.62s)
10 - 0.31 0.43 0.44 0.39 0.39 0.43 - - - - -
(1.59s) (1.73s) (1.70s) (1.58s) 1.60(s) (1.70s)
100 - 0.34 0.47 0.50 0.44 0.44 0.47 - - - - -
(1.65s) (1.79s) (1.79s) (1.65s) (1.68s) (1.77s)
1000 - 0.37 0.50 0.55 0.48 0.48 0.52 - - - - -
(1.51s) (1.86s) (1.87s) (1.72s) (1.75s) (1.83s)
30
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - - - 0.23 0.35 0.32 0.38 0.42 0.28 - - -
(1.39s) (1.64s) (1.56s) (1.65s) (1.76s) (1.54s)
1 - - - 0.28 0.43 0.39 0.45 0.50 0.34 - - -
(1.51s) (1.78s) (1.69s) (1.76s) (1.88s) (1.64s)
10 - - - 0.33 0.50 0.46 0.52 0.57 0.38 - - -
(1.60s) (1.88s) (1.79s) (1.84s) (1.98s) (1.72s)
100 - - - 0.38 0.56 0.51 0.58 0.63 0.43 - - -
(1.68s) (1.97s) (1.87s) (1.93s) (2.06s) (1.80s)
1000 - - - 0.42 0.62 0.57 0.64 0.69 0.47 - - -
(1.75s) (2.05s) (1.94s) (2.01s) (2.13s) (1.86s)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - - - 0.07 0.22 0.24 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.32 -
(0.86s) (1.28s) (1.30s) (1.34s) (1.32s) (1.38s) (1.42s) (1.59s)
1 - - - 0.08 0.27 0.29 0.33 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 -
(0.92s) (1.39s) (1.41s) (1.44s) (1.41s) (1.46s) (1.57s) (1.71s)
10 - - - 0.1 0.31 0.34 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.41 0.44 -
(0.97s) (1.47s) (1.49s) (1.51s) (1.48s) (1.54s) (1.66s) (1.80s)
100 - - - 0.11 0.35 0.39 0.41 0.40 0.43 0.47 0.50 -
(1.00s) (1.53s) (1.56s) (1.56s) (1.53s) (1.60s) (1.75s) (1.88s)
1000 - - - 0.11 0.39 0.43 0.45 0.44 0.47 0.52 0.55 -
(1.03s) (1.59s) (1.62s) (1.62s) (1.58s) (1.66s) (1.82s) (1.96s)
31
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - - - 0.29 0.26 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.31 0.31 - -
(1.62s) (1.42s) (1.18s) (1.21s) (1.29s) (1.46s) (1.52s)
1 - - - 0.36 0.32 0.26 0.27 0.30 0.36 0.37 - -
(1.76s) (1.54s) (1.28s) (1.29s) (1.38s) (1.56s) (1.62s)
10 - - - 0.42 0.38 0.30 0.31 0.35 0.41 0.42 - -
(1.86s) (1.63s) (1.36s) (1.36s) (1.45s) (1.64s) (1.70s)
100 - - - 0.47 0.43 0.34 0.35 0.39 0.46 0.47 - -
(1.95s) (1.70s) (1.43s) (1.42s) (1.51s) (1.71s) (1.77s)
1000 - - - 0.52 0.47 0.37 0.38 0.42 0.50 0.51 - -
(2.02s) (1.77s) (1.48s) (1.46s) (1.56s) (1.76s) (1.83s)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - - 0.32 0.38 0.31 0.26 0.31 0.35 0.37 - - -
(1.83s) (1.76s) (1.51s) (1.36s) (1.44s) (1.58s) (1.70s)
1 - - 0.38 0.47 0.38 0.32 0.37 0.42 0.43 - - -
(1.95s) (1.92s) (1.64s) (1.47s) (1.53s) (1.69s) (1.81s)
10 - - 0.45 0.55 0.45 0.38 0.42 0.48 0.49 - - -
(2.08s) (2.03s) (1.74s) (1.55s) (1.61s) (1.78s) (1.90s)
100 - - 0.49 0.61 0.51 0.42 0.47 0.54 0.55 - - -
(2.15s) (2.13s) (1.83s) (1.62s) (1.68s) (1.86s) (1.98s)
1000 - - 0.53 0.68 0.57 0.47 0.51 0.59 0.61 - - -
(2.21s) (2.21s) (1.90s) (1.69s) (1.74s) (1.93s) (1.99s)
32
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 - 0.39 0.34 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.44 - - - -
(1.92s) (1.60s) (1.51s) (1.46s) (1.45s) (1.70s) (1.86s)
1 - 0.46 0.40 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.48 0.53 - - - -
(2.05s) (1.72s) (1.63s) (1.57s) (1.57s) (1.81s) (2.01s)
10 - 0.52 0.46 0.45 0.43 0.42 0.54 0.61 - - - -
(2.15s) (1.81s) (1.73s) (1.67s) (1.66s) (1.91s) (2.22s)
100 - 0.57 0.50 0.51 0.48 0.48 0.61 0.67 - - - -
(2.22s) (1.88s) (1.81s) (1.75s) (1.74s) (1.98s) (2.32s)
1000 - 0.62 0.55 0.56 0.53 0.53 0.66 0.74 - - - -
(2.28s) (1.95s) (1.88s) (1.82s) (1.81s) (2.05s) (2.39s)
Table 32 Extreme significant wave heights (m) at Position S1
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.22 0.15 - - - - - - 0.19 0.35 0.29 0.25
(1.25s) (1.25s) (1.61s) (1.70s) (1.45s) (1.30s)
1 0.26 0.17 - - - - - - 0.22 0.42 0.35 0.30
(1.34s) (1.34s) (1.70s) (1.81s) (1.56s) (1.40s)
10 0.30 0.19 - - - - - - 0.26 0.49 0.41 0.35
(1.41s) (1.40s) (1.81s) (1.92s) (1.65s) (1.48s)
100 0.33 0.25 - - - - - - 0.28 0.54 0.46 0.39
(1.46s) (1.46s) (1.88s) (2.00s) (1.73s) (1.54s)
1000 0.35 0.23 - - - - - - 0.31 0.59 0.51 0.43
(1.50s) (1.50s) (1.95s) (2.07s) (1.80s) (1.60s)
33
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.23 0.22 0.26 0.31 - - - - - - - 0.24
(1.25s) (1.24s) (1.38s) (1.70s) (1.33s)
1 0.28 0.26 0.30 0.39 - - - - - - - 0.29
(1.38s) (1.33s) (1.47s) (1.84s) (1.43s)
10 0.33 0.30 0.34 0.47 - - - - - - - 0.34
(1.47s) (1.40s) (1.54s) (1.98s) (1.48s)
100 0.33 0.33 0.38 0.53 - - - - - - - 0.38
(1.46s) (1.45s) (1.60s) (2.08s) (1.55s)
1000 0.36 0.36 0.41 0.58 - - - - - - - 0.42
(1.50s) (1.49s) (1.64s) (2.16s) (1.61s)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.22 0.25 0.33 0.32 - - - - - - 0.33 0.29
(1.24s) (1.34s) (1.65s) (1.69s) (1.64s) (1.48s)
1 0.26 0.29 0.39 0.40 - - - - - - 0.40 0.36
(1.31s) (1.42s) (1.76s) (1.83s) (1.78s) (1.59s)
10 0.30 0.33 0.44 0.47 - - - - - - 0.46 0.41
(1.39s) (1.49s) (1.84s) (1.94s) (1.88s) (1.68s)
100 0.33 0.36 0.48 0.53 - - - - - - 0.52 0.46
(1.44s) (1.55s) (1.91s) (2.03s) (1.96s) (1.76s)
1000 0.35 0.39 0.52 0.58 - - - - - - 0.57 0.50
(1.48s) (1.58s) (1.96s) (2.11s) (2.04s) (1.82s)
34
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.33 0.34 0.14 - - - - - - 0.28 0.37 0.31
(1.57s) (1.63s) (1.13s) (1.68s) (1.74s) (1.50s)
1 0.38 0.40 0.13 - - - - - - 0.35 0.45 0.37
(1.67s) (1.74s) (1.18s) (1.66s) (1.86s) (1.61s)
10 0.43 0.45 0.15 - - - - - - 0.40 0.52 0.43
(1.75s) (1.82s) (1.26s) (1.91s) (1.96s) (1.70s)
100 0.48 0.50 0.17 - - - - - - 0.44 0.58 0.48
(1.76s) (1.89s) (1.32s) (2.00s) (2.05s) (1.77s)
1000 0.53 0.54 0.19 - - - - - - 0.49 0.64 0.52
(1.83s) (1.94s) (1.37s) (2.07s) (2.12s) (1.84s)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.22 0.15 - - - - - 0.38 0.41 0.29 0.25 0.24
(1.25s) (1.27.s) (1.74s) (1.75s) (1.46s) (1.32s) (1.27s)
1 0.26 0.18 - - - - - 0.45 0.49 0.36 0.31 0.29
(1.34s) (1.26s) (1.85s) (1.85s) (1.57s) (1.42s) (1.38s)
10 0.30 0.20 - - - - - 0.51 0.56 0.42 0.35 0.34
(1.41s) (1.42s) (1.95s) (1.95s) (1.66s) (1.48s) (1.45s)
100 0.33 0.22 - - - - - 0.58 0.62 0.47 0.40 0.38
(1.46s) (1.47s) (2.03s) (2.01s) (1.74s) (1.56s) (1.51s)
1000 0.35 0.24 - - - - - 0.64 0.68 0.52 0.44 0.41
(1.50s) (1.52s) (2.11s) (2.12s) (1.81s) (1.63s) (1.57s)
35
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.29 0.27 - - - - - 0.25 0.25
(1.25s) (1.28s) (1.36s) (1.58s) (1.63s) (1.33s) (1.31s)
1 0.27 0.28 0.31 0.36 0.33 - - - - - 0.30 0.30
(1.34s) (1.37s) (1.45s) (1.71s) (1.76s) (1.45s) (1.41s)
10 0.31 0.31 0.34 0.42 0.39 - - - - - 0.35 0.35
(1.41s) (1.43s) (1.51s) (1.75s) (1.87s) (1.51s) (1.48s)
100 0.34 0.35 0.38 0.47 0.44 - - - - - 0.39 0.39
(1.46s) (1.48s) (1.57s) (1.90s) (1.96s) (1.57s) (1.57s)
1000 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.53 0.48 - - - - - 0.42 0.43
(1.50s) (1.53s) (1.61s) (1.89s) (2.04s) (1.65s) (1.63s)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.22 0.22 0.34 0.20 - - - - - - 0.36 0.34
(1.24s) (1.24s) (1.82s) (1.81s) (1.68s (1.63s)
1 0.24 0.26 0.40 0.25 - - - - - - 0.43 0.41
(1.26s) (1.33s) (1.94s) (1.96s) (1.81s) (1.75s)
10 0.27 .0.30 0.46 0.29 - - - - - - 0.50 0.48
(1.32s) (1.41s) (2.15s) (2.08s) (1.91s) (1.85s)
100 0.30 0.30 0.52 0.34 - - - - - - 0.56 0.53
(1.37s) (1.40s) (2.25s) (2.21s) (1.99s) (1.93s)
1000 0.32 0.33 0.58 0.37 - - - - - - 0.61 0.58
(1.41s) (1.42s) (2.34s) (2.30s) (2.06s) (2.00s)
36
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.20 0.26 0.37 - - - - - - 0.26 0.33 0.23
(1.18s) (1.36s) (1.91s) (1.44s) (1.62s) (1.26s)
1 0.24 0.31 0.44 - - - - - - 0.33 0.40 0.28
(1.25s) (1.47s) (2.03s) (1.59s) (1.75s) (1.37s)
10 0.27 0.35 0.50 - - - - - - 0.39 0.46 0.33
(1.31s) (1.56s) (2.13s) (1.71s) (1.85s) (1.46s)
100 0.30 0.39 0.55 - - - - - - 0.39 0.52 0.37
(1.36s) (1.63s) (2.20s) (1.81s) (1.93s) (1.54s)
1000 0.32 0.43 0.59 - - - - - - 0.43 0.56 0.41
(1.41s) (1.68s) (2.21s) (1.87s) (2.01s) (1.60s)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.27 0.37 0.39 - - - - - - 0.21 0.28 0.26
(1.39s) (1.75s) (1.87s) (1.47s) (1.45s) (1.35s)
1 .0.31 0.44 0.47 - - - - - - 0.26 0.34 0.32
(1.49s) (1.86s) (1.95s) (1.58s) (1.57s) (1.45s)
10 0.36 0.50 0.53 - - - - - - 0.30 0.39 0.36
(1.52s) (1.95s) (2.08s) (1.69s) (1.66s) (1.51s)
100 0.41 0.56 0.59 - - - - - - 0.34 0.44 0.41
(1.58s) (2.04s) (2.18s) (1.76s) (1.74s) (1.59s)
1000 0.45 0.61 0.64 - - - - - - 0.37 0.48 0.45
(1.65s) (2.11s) (2.26s) (1.82s) (1.80s) (1.65s)
37
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.44 0.43 0.16 - - - - - 0.34 0.44 0.32 0.32
(1.93s) (1.90s) (1.54s) (2.00s) (1.97s) (1.54s) (1.55s)
1 0.52 0.51 0.19 - - - - - 0.41 0.53 0.39 0.40
(2.06s) (2.03s) (1.64s) (2.14s) (2.10s) (1.66s) (1.69s)
10 0.59 0.57 0.22 - - - - - 0.47 0.61 0.45 0.43
(2.12s) (2.12s) (1.73s) (2.27s) (2.24s) (1.75s) (1.67s)
100 0.65 0.62 0.24 - - - - - 0.52 0.68 0.50 0.48
(2.23s) (2.20s) (1.79s) (2.37s) (2.34s) (1.82s) (1.76s)
1000 0.70 0.67 0.26 - - - - - 0.57 0.75 0.55 0.53
(2.30s) (2.26s) (1.84s) (2.45s) (2.42s) (1.89s) (1.83s)
360 030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330
ESTUARY
Return
period
(years)
030 060 090 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.1 0.46 0.26 0.20 0.15 0.12 - - 0.14 0.50 0.39 0.34 0.44
(1.94s) (1.44s) (1.17s) (1.01s) (0.88s) (1.37s) (2.01s) (1.77s) (1.58s) (1.87s)
1 0.57 0.31 0.23 0.19 0.14 - - 0.18 0.59 0.48 0.41 0.55
(2.08s) (1.54s) (1.23s) (1.09s) (0.96s) (1.50s) (2.14s) (1.90s) (1.70s) (2.03s)
10 0.67 0.36 0.26 0.22 0.17 - - 0.21 0.67 0.55 0.47 0.64
(2.23s) (1.62s) (1.31s) (1.15s) (1.01s) (1.60s) (2.25s) (2.01s) (1.80s) (2.16s)
100 0.75 0.40 0.29 0.25 0.19 - - 0.24 0.75 0.62 0.53 0.71
(2.34s) (1.69s) (1.35s) (1.21s) (1.05s) (1.68s) (2.34s) (2.09s) (1.88s) (2.26s)
1000 0.83 0.43 0.31 0.27 0.21 - - 0.26 0.83 0.69 0.58 0.78
(2.42s) (1.73s) (1.39s) (1.25s) (1.09s) (1.76s) (2.43s) (2.18s) (1.94s) (2.34s)
38
Thames Estuary 2100
Estuary
Wave climates and extremes in the Outer

Estuary
Significant wave
height (m)
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Status:
Date:
25/08/2005
Environment Agency
Thames Estuary 2100

Wave climates and extremes in the Outer Estuary
August 2005
TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2.3 – WAVE CLIMATES AND EXTREMES IN THE OUTER
ESTUARY ii
SUMMARY
defence loading. This technical note describes the assessment of waves in the Upper
Thames Estuary for reach T3 between Sea Reach and Southend.
Wave climates and extremes were derived for 7 locations (N11-N13 and S12-S15 in
Figure 1). The wind data collected in EP2.1 and analysed in EP7 fed into EP2.3. The
HINDWAVE computational models of local wave generation set up in EP2.2 were used
in EP2.3. In addition a SWAN computational model was used to model the generation
and transformation of waves in the Outer Thames Estuary accounting for the complex
series of offshore sandbanks and channels in the approaches to the Thames.
ESTUARY iii
ESTUARY iv
CONTENTS
SUMMARY iii
1. Introduction 1
2. Winds 1
3. Waves 2
3.1 Waves generated in the Outer Thames 2
3.2 Waves generated locally within reach T3 4
5. References 7
Tables
Table 1a Nearshore wave climate (at high water) for point N11 17
Table 1b Nearshore wave climate (at high water) for point N11 18
Table 4a Nearshore wave climate (at high water) for point S12 23
Table 4b Nearshore wave climate (at high water) for point S12 24
Table 8 Extreme wave conditions at Position N11 31
Table 11 Extreme wave conditions at Position S12 32
ESTUARY v
Figures
Figure 2 The bathymetry of the SWAN model 10
Figure 3 Results for 0.1 year wind and 0.1 year offshore waves from 90 °N 11
Figure 4 Results for 0.1 year wind and 0.1 year offshore waves from 90 °N
(zoomed in) 12
Figure 5 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N, no waves on offshore boundary 13
Figure 6 1 year waves due to wind from 30 °N 14
Appendices
Appendix 1 Validation of SWAN 37
Appendix 2 Sensitivity of wave conditions to currents and water levels 77
ESTUARY vi
1. INTRODUCTION
Natural waves in the Tideway Reach T3 between Sea Reach and Southend are a
combination of wind waves generated locally across the reach and waves that propagate
from offshore over the sandbanks in the Outer Thames. These waves depend on a
number of forcing parameters including:

The SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) 3rd generation wave transformation model
was used to represent both wave generation due to winds and transformation over the
sandbanks in the Outer Thames (see Section 3). As part of EP7 several wind data
sources were analysed. For the SWAN model the most applicable source of wind data
was UKMO model winds from the Thames Approaches (see Section 2).
The HR HINDWAVE wind wave prediction model set up as part of EP2.2 was used in
combination with Shoeburyness wind records to account for local wind waves (see
Section 3).
Wave conditions at 7 locations, (N11-N13 and S12-S15 Figure 1) were derived. At


• Extreme wave conditions for the 0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return periods.
2. WINDS
Wind data
A comparison of several wind data sources was undertaken in EP7. The measured
Shoeburyness wind data was selected for use with the HINDWAVE model. EP2.2
(Reference 1) presents a description of this data.
The SWAN model (Section 3) also requires wind as input. For the purposes of this
modelling the UKMO model wind data from the point 51.50°N, 01.14°E was selected.
It was considered that this source gave the most representative wind climate over the
open expanse of water of the Outer Thames and offshore. The data covered the period
1987-2004.
Extremes
periods were derived as part of EP7. Extremes from both Shoeburyness and UKMO
model winds were produced. The Shoeburyness data are presented in EP2.2.
The SWAN model was used to represent wave generation over the sand banks in the
Outer Thames and for this purpose winds from the directions between north and east
ESTUARY 1
were considered. The extreme wind speeds for the relevant directions are presented in
the following table.
Three hour duration UKMO model extreme wind speeds (m/s)
Return 006-035°N 036-65°N 66-95°N 96-125°N

period
(years) 3 hour duration wind speeds
0.1 11.3 11.3 10.6 8.9
1 15.5 14.2 13.9 12.8
10 19.0 16.5 16.4 16.1
100 22.2 18.4 18.5 19.0
1000 25.1 20.0 20.3 21.7
Please note that due to the fact that the UKMO model wind data covered a period of 18
years, the 1000 year return period wind conditions can only be considered as a best
estimate of that event.
3. WAVES
Wave conditions were derived at 7 locations in reach T3, shown on Figure 1. Three
locations were on the northern bank of the estuary (N11-N13) and four locations were
on the southern bank (S12-S15).
The SWAN model and UKMO winds were used to derive extreme wave conditions for
wind directions between north and east (see Section 3.1). In addition to this SWAN was
used to calibrate the HINDWAVE model to represent the effects of the shallow banks in
the outer estuary.
The calibrated HINDWAVE was used to derive annually averaged wave climates at
each location. The HINDWAVE model and Shoeburyness wind data was also used to
derive extreme wave conditions for the more local wind directions between east through
south to north (see Section 3.2). .
3.1 Waves generated in the Outer Thames
3.1.1 SWAN model
SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) was developed by the Technical University of

Delft in the Netherlands. SWAN is a 3rd generation wave model and is a state-of-the-art
spectral wave transformation model for coastal wave studies.
SWAN includes the effects of refraction and shoaling, friction, wave breaking and
wave-wave interactions. The model is ideally suited to the transformation of wave
energy spectra in relatively large coastal areas. This is particularly true where the
features of the seabed, such as offshore banks, result in depth-induced wave breaking
and wave–wave interactions.
The model also includes wave generation by wind within the model area. SWAN
therefore is especially useful in regions such as lochs, fjords, partially enclosed bays or
ESTUARY 2
estuaries where wave conditions may be equally comprised of refracted offshore waves
and those generated locally by winds (not necessarily correlated with the predominant
offshore wave direction).
3.1.2 SWAN validation
As part of the ESTPROC research project a SWAN model for the Outer Thames was set
up and validated against wave measurements at the site of the CEFAS buoy at the Warp
and against measurements at the site of the proposed Kentish Flats windfarm. This
model was used for the present study. Further details of the validation are included in
Appendix 1.
Experience from the ESTPROC project suggested that only a small fraction of longer
period offshore waves penetrate further up the estuary. Further sensitivity tests were
carried out to determine if this were the case. These sensitivity tests included running a
range of 0.1 year and 100 year return period conditions for winds only and a
combination of winds plus waves applied along the offshore boundary.
As an example of the sensitivity tests, Figure 3 shows results for the complete SWAN
model area for 0.1 year return period waves from 90 °N with a 0.1 year return period
wind blowing over the model also from 90°N. Figure 4 shows a close up of this model
run in reach T3. Figure 5 for comparison shows the results from another model run
where only the 0.1 year return period wind was applied over the model with no waves
input on the offshore boundary. As can be seen, the results in the area of interest are
almost identical, leading to the conclusion that the model area is large enough to include
the relevant wave generation and transformation area and that waves from outside the
model area do not penetrate to the area of interest. The same conclusions were reached
from the 100 year wave runs.
From these tests it was concluded that wave conditions in the estuary were as a result of
winds blowing locally over the approaches to the Thames and the longer period offshore
wave energy was dissipated by banks in the Outer Estuary. Hence for this study the
boundary conditions for the SWAN model were only the wind blowing over the model
area.
It was anticipated that further validation would be carried out against new
measurements. However at the time of writing this report no such measurements were
available. Hence it is recommended that this process be carried out when the
measurements become available.
3.1.3 Application of SWAN to the Outer Thames
The model extends offshore beyond Margate, in Kent, and Clacton-on-Sea, in Essex,
and up the Thames slightly beyond East Tilbury. It consists of a system of 8 nested
rectangular grids aligned with North. Figure 2 shows the extent of the model area. The
following table summarises the SWAN model grid system.
ESTUARY 3
The SWAN model grid system
Grid origin
Grid Number of grid cells
(m)
spacing
X- Y-
(m) X0 Y0
direction direction
25 176 192 5000 11350
25 208 158 6500 16150
25 200 164 11700 16000
25 132 240 16700 15200
50 108 172 20000 15200
50 112 232 25400 12200
100 95 222 31000 8000
200 231 200 40500 4400
Depths in the SWAN model were based on UK Admiralty Charts, supplemented with recent
PLA survey (the same bathymetry that was used in the tidal flow model). Figure 2 shows the
model depths below OD(m). The SWAN wave transformation model was used in this
study to derive and wave conditions due to the UKMO extreme wind speeds described
in Section 2. Wind directions between 20 °N and 100 °N were considered.
All model runs were carried out for a MHWS water level at Southend (2.9mOD).
Hence the wave climates are ‘high water’ wave climates applicable to the consideration
of sea defences on the upper inter-tidal area. The location of the analysis points were
chosen in deep enough water such that the predicted extreme waves were not limited by
local wave breaking (although of course the model considered the effect of wave
breaking over the banks in the Outer Estuary). It is envisaged that sensitivity studies in
the next phase of modelling will include assessment of the sensitivity to water level on
the extreme waves (e.g. the effect of surge water levels and the effect of tidal currents).
3.2 Waves generated locally within reach T3
A description of the HINDWAVE model and it’s application to the Thames Estuary is
presented in EP2.2.
For the points in the Outer Thames the HINDWAVE fetches to the east should be
limited to account for the sheltering effects of the shallow banks of Barrow and Long
Sand. In order to produce the full annual wave climates from the HINDWAVE model,
the fetches to the east were calibrated by comparison of results against the SWAN
model which explicitly represents all the wave transformation processes across the
banks. Although each run of the SWAN model represents only a single wave condition,
this approach of calibrating the HINDWAVE model allows the complete wave climates
at each point to be derived allowing for waves from all direction sectors.
3.3.1 Annual wave climates
The annual wave climates presented in this technical note are representative of the
general wave climate at each location at high water and can be used to assess the
average frequency of occurrence of particular wave heights and directions on an annual
basis.
ESTUARY 4
The annual wave climates for locations N11-N13 and S12-S15 are presented in Tables 1
to 7 as tables of significant wave height against mean wave direction and tables of
significant wave height against mean wave period. These data are presented in parts per
hundred thousand in the main body of each table and parts per thousand for the total
counts for each table column and can be interpreted as shown in the following example.
Table 1a (reproduced below) presents the annually averaged wave climate for location
N11 in terms of significant wave height and mean wave direction. From this table it is
observed that waves with a significant wave height of between 0.0m and 0.1m and with
a wave direction from between 210°N and 240°N have an occurrence of 5287 parts per
hundred thousand each year. That is to say waves of less than 0.1m with a wave
direction from between 210°N and 240°N will occur for 5.3% of the time each year.
Also from Table 1a it is observed that waves with a wave direction from between 210°N
and 240°N occur 139 parts per thousand each year. This is equivalent to 13.9% of the
time per year.
In addition to the above, column 3 (P(H>H1) of each table gives the proportion of time
that a particular wave height is exceeded in each year. For example Table 1a shows that
a wave height of 0.1m is exceed for 63.9% of the year.
Table Annual nearshore wave climate – position N11

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94760 1799 709 506 1671 732 856 3996 5287 3467 3828 4076 3905
0.10 0.20 0.63928 298 89 523 8370 723 80911039 7264 795 766 376 405
0.20 0.30 0.32470 7 0 89 7315 382 678 8279 1274 21 10 6 6
0.30 0.40 0.14405 0 0 7 4093 60 204 4520 41 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.05480 0 0 0 2172 7 27 1062 1 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.02212 0 0 0 1028 1 4 354 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.00825 0 0 0 492 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.00296 0 0 0 194 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
0.80 0.90 0.00100 0 0 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
for each direction
From Tables 1 to 3, representing the wave climate along the northern bank of the Outer
Estuary, it can be observed that annually for approximately 99% of the time significant
wave heights are 0.6m or less at location N11, 0.7m or less at N12 and 0.8m or less at
N13. On an annual basis the highest significant wave heights at N11, N12 and N13 are
0.9m, 0.9m and 1.2m respectively.
Similar comments can be made for the southern bank locations. From Tables 4 to 7 it is
seen that for 99% of the time significant wave heights are less than 0.6m at S12 and
S13, 0.7m at S14 and 0.9m at S15. The highest significant wave height occurring on an
annual basis is at S12, S13, S14 and S15 are 0.8m, 0.9m, 1.0m and 1.3m respectively.
ESTUARY 5
3.3.2 Extreme wave conditions
The extreme wave conditions presented in this technical note can be used for
assessment of flood risk due to wave overtopping from natural wind waves and defence
loading.
Results of some of the SWAN model runs are presented in Figures 6 to 8 as colour
contour plots of significant wave height. Figure 6 shows 1 year return period waves due
to winds from 30 °N which in many cases is the worst direction for points along the
southern bank of reach T3. Figure 7 shows 1 year return period waves due to winds
from 90 °N which affect the northern bank of reach T3 more severely. Finally Figure 8
shows waves due to 100 year winds from 30 °N.
Results from all the SWAN model runs for the full range of return periods and for wind
directions between 20 °N and 100 °N were examined to determine which wind
directions gave the worst waves at each of the analysis points. The extreme wave
conditions corresponding to the 0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return are presented in
Tables 8 to 14. Each table contains 3 columns of wave conditions. The results in
columns 1 and 2 were derived from the calibrated HINDWAVE model. Column 3 wave
conditions were derived from the SWAN model runs. For each return period, the first
column presents the largest waves generated over the Inner Estuary from winds from
the west/south-west. The second column represents the largest waves generated over
the estuary between the north and south banks by winds from either the north or south.
Column 3 presents the largest waves generated in the Outer Estuary from winds from
the east. For columns 1 and 2 for each wave condition presented the wave direction can
be assumed to take on any value within the range given. For column 3 the dominant
wave direction is shown.
It should be noted that waves from other directions will occur at the site, as shown in the
wave climate at each point (Section 3.3.1), however they will have smaller associated
significant wave heights compared to those presented in Tables 8 to 14.
Tables 8 to 10 present the wave conditions along the northern bank, Tables 11 to 14 the
wave conditions along the southern bank. From these tables it is observed that waves
generated in the Outer Estuary, from the east, result in the largest waves at all locations.
Along the northern bank the largest 1, 10 and 100 year return period conditions occur at
location N13 with significant wave heights (Hs) of 1.08m, 1.19m and 1.23m
respectively. Along the southern bank the largest 1, 10 and 100 year return period
conditions occur at location S15 with significant wave heights (Hs) of 1.14m, 1.31m and
1.41m respectively.
The 1000 year return period wave conditions should only be considered as a good
estimate based on the available length of wind records.

Annually averaged wave climates and extreme wave conditions corresponding to the
0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000 year return periods were derived at 7 locations in the Tideway
reach T3.
ESTUARY 6
The annual wave climates (Tables 1 to 7) are representative of the general natural wave
climate at high water at each location. The extreme wave conditions (Tables 8 to 14)
can be used for assessment of flood risk due to natural wave overtopping and defence
loading.
For the annually averaged wave climates significant wave heights were generally less
than 0.9m at these locations. The largest significant wave heights predicted were for
location S15, with a 100 year return period significant wave height of 1.41m.
No account was taken of vessel generated waves being reviewed under EP2.5.
It is recommended that 1000 year return period wave conditions presented in Tables 8 to
14 should be treated with caution due to the length of the source data being used.
5. REFERENCES
Reference 1 Thames Estuary 2100, Technical Note EP2.2, Wave climate in inner
estuary, HR Wallingford, June 2005
ESTUARY 7
ESTUARY 8
Point 541
UKMO
S15
N13
S14
N12
S13
S12
S11
N11
S10
N10
N9
S9
S8
N8
S7
N7
S5 S6
N6
S4
N5
N4
S3
N3
S2
S1
N2
N1
ESTUARY 9
Depth (mOD)
-10.0
50.0
30.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Figure 2 The bathymetry of the SWAN model
ESTUARY 10
Significant wave
height (m)
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
ESTUARY 11
Significant wave
height (m)
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
(zoomed in)
ESTUARY 12
Significant wave
height (m)
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Figure 5 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N, no waves on offshore
boundary
ESTUARY 13
Significant wave
height (m)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Figure 6 1 year waves due to wind from 30 °N
ESTUARY 14
Significant wave
height (m)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
ESTUARY 15
Significant wave
height (m)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
ESTUARY 16
Table 1a Nearshore wave climate (at high water) for point N11
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94760 1799 709 506 1671 732 856 3996 5287 3467 3828 4076 3905
0.10 0.20 0.63928 298 89 523 8370 723 80911039 7264 795 766 376 405
0.20 0.30 0.32470 7 0 89 7315 382 678 8279 1274 21 10 6 6
0.30 0.40 0.14405 0 0 7 4093 60 204 4520 41 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.05480 0 0 0 2172 7 27 1062 1 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.02212 0 0 0 1028 1 4 354 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.00825 0 0 0 492 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.00296 0 0 0 194 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
0.80 0.90 0.00100 0 0 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17
for each direction
Table 1b Nearshore wave climate (at high water) for point N11
ESTUARY
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94760 0 17076 13020 736 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.63928 0 0 25277 6180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.32470 0 0 1799 13537 2730 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.14405 0 0 0 5261 3664 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.05480 0 0 0 773 2211 284 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.02212 0 0 0 0 659 728 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.00825 0 0 0 0 44 485 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.00296 0 0 0 0 3 194 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18
0.80 0.90 0.00100 0 0 0 0 0 6 94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94760 904 230 354 1122 688 645 665 762 2806 1085 1087 3573
0.10 0.20 0.80839 758 139 597 7485 1834 675 1143 725411824 450 359 2705
0.20 0.30 0.45616 22 10 127 5796 625 1003 2315 6115 6079 4 11 111
0.30 0.40 0.23396 1 0 7 4545 166 271 657 4252 2887 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.10611 0 0 0 3174 55 132 344 1758 895 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.04253 0 0 0 1747 17 8 91 391 233 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.01767 0 0 0 803 2 0 9 56 59 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.00838 0 0 0 495 0 0 1 4 3 0 0 0
19
0.80 0.90 0.00337 0 0 0 336 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
for each direction
ESTUARY
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94760 0 4181 9741 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.80839 0 0 21101 14122 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.45616 0 0 1700 19549 970 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.23396 0 0 0 8691 4095 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.10611 0 0 0 1622 4736 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.04253 0 0 0 0 1241 1245 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.01767 0 0 0 0 133 796 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.00838 0 0 0 0 5 497 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20
0.80 0.90 0.00337 0 0 0 0 0 16 321 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94760 709 346 203 206 424 212 234 192 1338 1842 1226 842
0.10 0.20 0.86984 2034 755 1715 2417 1726 1454 1355 5966 3297 3960 2560 866
0.20 0.30 0.58880 368 224 1615 2521 2624 1554 333312559 1976 1031 657 177
0.30 0.40 0.30243 26 41 614 3151 2138 952 1022 5326 509 159 69 11
0.40 0.50 0.16223 4 3 201 2915 1645 554 621 2109 70 22 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.08079 0 1 45 1496 928 367 339 738 18 1 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.04146 0 0 7 1109 551 115 192 228 2 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.01944 0 0 0 444 327 29 66 68 0 0 0 0
21
0.80 0.90 0.01009 0 0 0 341 200 4 13 13 0 0 0 0
0.90 1.00 0.00438 0 0 0 183 100 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1.00 1.10 0.00155 0 0 0 13 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.10 1.20 0.00116 0 0 0 86 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
for each direction
ESTUARY
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94760 0 1869 5907 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.86984 0 0 21841 6262 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.58880 0 0 1452 27185 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.30243 0 0 0 9815 4205 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.16223 0 0 0 108 8036 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.08079 0 0 0 0 3010 922 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.04146 0 0 0 0 606 1597 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.01944 0 0 0 0 128 806 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22
0.80 0.90 0.01009 0 0 0 0 0 571 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.90 1.00 0.00438 0 0 0 0 0 8 275 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.00 1.10 0.00155 0 0 0 0 0 1 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.10 1.20 0.00116 0 0 0 0 0 0 96 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Table 4a Nearshore wave climate (at high water) for point S12
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94760 1021 415 4098 223 63 81 64 9972 2591 950 1656 1306
0.10 0.20 0.72320 1462 6099 2326 0 0 0 016977 7555 2003 3962 2623
0.20 0.30 0.29313 596 5966 560 0 0 0 0 6003 2297 776 1294 1139
0.30 0.40 0.10682 119 4086 181 0 0 0 0 1610 486 139 183 133
0.40 0.50 0.03745 15 2295 26 0 0 0 0 149 63 14 11 21
0.50 0.60 0.01151 3 611 10 0 0 0 0 3 5 1 1 0
0.60 0.70 0.00518 0 375 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.00142 0 141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23
for each direction
Table 4b Nearshore wave climate (at high water) for point S12
ESTUARY
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94760 0 965 17545 3527 400 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.72320 0 0 28056 13842 1095 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.29313 0 0 2578 12424 3583 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.10682 0 0 0 2713 4084 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.03745 0 0 0 205 1185 1205 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.01151 0 0 0 2 74 548 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.00518 0 0 0 0 0 371 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.00142 0 0 0 0 0 84 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94656 926 570 5313 662 0 4 13 517292 4617 1649 554
0.10 0.20 0.63051 1477 5040 3709 0 0 0 0 015075 5709 3490 1251
0.20 0.30 0.27300 822 5537 1796 0 0 0 0 0 2520 4608 1191 600
0.30 0.40 0.10225 91 3714 932 0 0 0 0 0 420 858 432 61
0.40 0.50 0.03717 10 1018 308 0 0 0 0 0 29 74 33 4
0.50 0.60 0.02241 3 1274 135 0 0 0 0 0 3 32 1 0
0.60 0.70 0.00793 0 468 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.00272 0 199 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25
0.80 0.90 0.00058 0 58 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
for each direction
ESTUARY
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94656 0 1235 23934 6112 325 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.63051 0 0 21436 12522 1745 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.27300 0 0 3406 10542 2999 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.10225 0 0 0 2121 4168 219 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.03717 0 0 0 124 951 399 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.02241 0 0 0 0 590 845 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.00793 0 0 0 0 5 480 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.00272 0 0 0 0 0 197 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26
0.80 0.90 0.00058 0 0 0 0 0 19 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.93098 508 191 6028 1044 0 0 0 0 128624976 664 654
0.10 0.20 0.57747 1457 4967 3119 0 0 0 0 0 013387 5017 787
0.20 0.30 0.29012 722 2066 1753 0 0 0 0 0 0 4272 1931 956
0.30 0.40 0.17311 368 3549 2341 0 0 0 0 0 0 1448 1160 165
0.40 0.50 0.08280 79 2252 880 0 0 0 0 0 0 473 255 50
0.50 0.60 0.04291 8 818 774 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 60 4
0.60 0.70 0.02563 3 911 595 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 5 0
0.70 0.80 0.01042 0 354 329 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
27
0.80 0.90 0.00358 0 88 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.90 1.00 0.00201 0 90 112 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
for each direction
ESTUARY
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.93098 0 2461 24057 6992 1468 361 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.57747 0 0 12032 15340 654 677 30 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.29012 0 0 244 9532 1088 677 148 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.17311 0 0 0 3094 4918 885 129 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.08280 0 0 0 450 2391 954 190 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.04291 0 0 0 0 526 1122 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.02563 0 0 0 0 16 1242 247 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.01042 0 0 0 0 1 206 472 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
28
0.80 0.90 0.00358 0 0 0 0 0 25 99 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.90 1.00 0.00201 0 0 0 0 0 0 160 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ESTUARY
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
0.00 0.10 0.94760 142 133 220 144 7950 186 345 54 25214787 244 184
0.10 0.20 0.70119 794 1814 791 1303 3112 0 0 0 011710 3058 791
0.20 0.30 0.46747 1070 1356 2271 881 1667 0 0 0 0 6656 2838 1107
0.30 0.40 0.28901 644 2362 1166 1331 633 0 0 0 0 2700 1709 688
0.40 0.50 0.17669 313 2177 1996 456 84 0 0 0 0 1008 993 482
0.50 0.60 0.10159 94 2467 836 360 106 0 0 0 0 468 381 166
0.60 0.70 0.05281 27 697 598 319 27 0 0 0 0 83 169 48
0.70 0.80 0.03311 3 1047 665 79 7 0 0 0 0 41 29 19
29
0.80 0.90 0.01420 7 322 39 104 2 0 0 0 0 6 5 2
0.90 1.00 0.00934 0 280 254 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1.00 1.10 0.00398 0 152 48 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.10 1.20 0.00180 0 38 60 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.20 1.30 0.00079 0 42 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
for each direction
ESTUARY
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.00 0.10 0.94760 0 934 5931 12418 5235 123 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.10 0.20 0.70119 0 0 6231 13608 3419 114 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.20 0.30 0.46747 0 0 58 13158 4290 340 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.30 0.40 0.28901 0 0 0 3559 7360 314 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.40 0.50 0.17669 0 0 0 0 7245 263 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.50 0.60 0.10159 0 0 0 0 1752 3123 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.60 0.70 0.05281 0 0 0 0 253 1714 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.70 0.80 0.03311 0 0 0 0 33 1846 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30
0.80 0.90 0.01420 0 0 0 0 0 339 147 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.90 1.00 0.00934 0 0 0 0 0 1 535 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.00 1.10 0.00398 0 0 0 0 0 0 218 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.10 1.20 0.00180 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.20 1.30 0.00079 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Table 8 Extreme wave conditions at Position N11
Waves from the Inner Estuary Waves from across the estuary Waves from the Outer Estuary
ESTUARY
Return
Period
(years)
Hs (m) Tm(s) Dir (°N) Hs (m) Tm(s) Dir (°N) Hs (m) Tm(s) Dir (°N)
0.1 0.55 2.07 180-210 0.42 1.82 150-180 0.63 2.11 93
1 0.66 2.20 180-210 0.53 1.98 150-180 0.81 2.28 95
10 0.77 2.34 180-210 0.63 2.13 150-180 0.94 2.25 97
100 0.86 2.45 180-210 0.71 2.23 150-180 1.05 2.35 100
1000 0.93 2.53 180-210 0.79 2.32 150-180 1.16 2.44 102

Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.63 2.24 240-270 0.52 1.95 180-210 0.62 2.16 106
31
1 0.75 2.40 240-270 0.62 2.09 180-210 0.79 2.35 108
10 0.85 2.52 240-270 0.71 2.20 180-210 0.91 2.31 109
100 0.94 2.61 240-270 0.78 2.29 180-210 1.02 2.45 112
1000 1.04 2.70 240-270 0.85 2.37 180-210 1.11 2.53 112

Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.66 2.29 210-240 0.74 2.53 150-180 0.81 2.49 112
1 0.78 2.45 210-240 0.91 2.76 150-180 1.08 2.90 117
10 0.89 2.57 210-240 0.95 2.73 150-180 1.19 2.87 122
100 1.01 2.67 210-240 1.07 2.87 150-180 1.23 2.95 124
1000 1.11 2.78 210-240 1.18 2.98 150-180 1.25 2.98 125
Table 11 Extreme wave conditions at Position S12
ESTUARY
Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.46 1.89 210-240 0.38 1.67 330-360 0.51 1.85 39
1 0.54 2.03 210-240 0.46 1.80 330-360 0.67 2.01 29
10 0.62 2.13 210-240 0.54 1.91 330-360 0.81 2.02 28
100 0.69 2.22 210-240 0.61 2.00 330-360 0.96 2.17 26
1000 0.75 2.29 210-240 0.66 2.07 330-360 1.08 2.32 25

Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.49 1.96 270-300 0.38 1.67 360-30 0.61 1.97 56
32
1 0.58 2.09 270-300 0.46 1.81 360-30 0.77 2.17 53
10 0.66 2.20 270-300 0.53 1.92 360-30 0.87 2.12 53
100 0.73 2.29 270-300 0.60 2.00 360-30 1.01 2.20 39
1000 0.80 2.36 270-300 0.65 2.08 360-30 1.12 2.33 38

Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.50 2.04 270-300 0.45 1.89 360-30 0.72 2.25 50
1 0.61 2.00 270-300 0.55 2.03 360-30 0.93 2.53 48
10 0.70 2.32 270-300 0.63 2.15 360-30 1.03 2.98 48
100 0.78 2.42 270-300 0.72 2.23 360-30 1.16 2.77 36
1000 0.86 2.51 270-300 0.79 2.32 360-30 1.21 2.81 47
ESTUARY
Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.68 2.41 300-330 0.64 2.30 360-30 0.90 2.58 63
1 0.83 2.60 300-330 0.78 2.48 360-30 1.14 2.74 46
10 0.95 2.75 300-330 0.90 2.63 360-30 1.32 2.88 46
100 1.07 2.95 300-330 1.01 2.75 360-30 1.41 3.15 41
1000 1.17 3.06 300-330 1.11 2.85 360-30 1.44 3.24 33
33
ESTUARY 34
APPENDICIES
ESTUARY 35
ESTUARY 36
Appendix 1
Validation of SWAN
1 Introduction
As part of the ESTPROC project for Defra/Environment Agency Flood and Coastal
Defence R&D program (Reference 1) HR Wallingford Ltd carried out validation of
SWAN against measured wave data at The Warp, Outer Thames.
The following sections present a description of this validation.
2 Available measured data

Wave data records from the CEFAS WARPBUOY waverider, covering the period
19/3/02 to 13/7/02, were available at the time of the ESTPROC study. This waverider
was located in a relatively deep channel to the east of The Warp in approximately 18m
of water (see Figure 2). This wave data is available to the public via CEFAS on the
following website: http:// www.cefas.co.uk/wavenet. Figures 3a, 3b and 3c,
respectively, show the time series of significant wave height, mean and peak wave
periods and wave direction from this buoy for the full period of measurements available.
The location of The Warp wave rider (TH1) is:

51°31.51’N 1°1.82’E or 610186 185101 British Grid.
3 SWAN model boundary conditions
3.1 Introduction
The Outer Thames Estuary is characterised by a series of intertidal sandbanks and

channels. Figure 1 shows an image of the UK Admiralty Chart for the area of interest.
Although moderate compared with some other estuaries in the UK, the tidal range is
quite large. The tidal range at Shivering Sand is 4.7m. The sandbanks of the Outer
Thames can become very shallow and may dry at the lowest states of the tide. This
results in large changes to the generation area and causes depth induced breaking of
waves propagating from the North Sea, thus providing shelter to those waves. The
pattern of the seabed topography in the Outer Thames also leads to complex tidal
current patterns which may have an important effect on the wave conditions, through
the processes of wave-current refraction, shoaling and blocking. These complex
hydrodynamic processes make the Outer Thames Estuary a challenging area for wave
modelling techniques.
This section describes the sources of data available for the Outer Thames Estuary tests.
A summary of notable assumptions and simplifications in the application of these
boundary conditions is given in Section 4.
ESTUARY 37
3.2 Offshore wave – Met Office European wave model
Rather than try to represent the generation and propagation of waves over the entire
North Sea the application of the wave model in this study only included the Outer
Thames Estuary. Thus waves, generated in the North Sea, were required as input to the
models at the offshore boundaries. For this study integrated wave parameters were
extracted from the archive of UK Meteorological Office (Met Office) European Wave
Model data held by HR Wallingford for a single representative wave prediction point
located at 51.5N 1.53E close to the offshore boundary of the models (see Figure 2).
This archive covers the period October 1986 to March 2002 inclusive.
3.3 Wind – Met Office European wave model wind data
Wind data is required as input to the model. Since the area of interest is relatively
small, winds over the models were assumed to be uniform. Here computational
atmospheric model wind data for the period of measurements at The Warp was
available.
Wind data was extracted from the Met Office European Model for a model point east of
North Foreland at 51.5N 1.53E. The wind record covers the period of the period of
wave measurements and is provided with 3 hourly intervals. Although it is model data
it has been calibrated extensively against a wide range of measurements.
The Met Office model point is out of the estuary and has a slightly different aspect to
the locations of the wave recorders. To verify that these winds were appropriate, the in-
situ measurements of winds were also used to check the validity of the Met Office data
for the area under consideration. Met Office wind data from October 2002 was
compared to wind measurements from a meteorological mast located on Kentish Flats,
close to the location of the pressure sensor. Figure 4 shows that the time series of wind
data are in close agreement. Therefore, the Met Office wind data can be assumed to be
representative of winds experienced over the Outer Thames Estuary. Met Office model
winds were used in the test periods for comparison with the CEFAS waverider.
3.4 Tidal currents
Part of this study was to investigate the importance of tidal currents on wave
transformation in the Outer Thames. Therefore, accurate predictions over the complete
area of interest were required. To provide this information a computational flow model
was used to generate tidal current predictions. To verify these predictions three sources
of data were used:
1. Admiralty tidal diamonds

2. Vessel mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (VMADCP)
3. Autonomous ADCP
The locations of the various sources of current data for model calibration are shown in
Figure 5a. Those locations marked by a letter represent Admiralty tidal diamonds from
UK Admiralty Chart 1607. The numbered locations represent VMADCP (vessel
ESTUARY 38
mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler) survey points, where currents were
measured during a spring tide in January 2003. The Fisherman’s Gat, Mouse Channel
and West Oaze points are taken from autonomous ADCPs.
A description of the computational flow model, its application to the Outer Thames
Estuary and comparison with the available tidal and flow data is given in the following
section.
3.5 Computational Flow modelling in the Outer Thames Estuary
An existing HR Wallingford TELEMAC-2d model of the Thames estuary, Southern

North Sea and English Channel was used to provide predictions of current velocities for
the study area. The model included a recent survey of bathymetry in parts of the
estuary. The model was calibrated against Admiralty tidal diamonds and other
measured data.
The model mesh and bathymetry over the whole domain is shown in Figures 5b and 5c.
The locations of various sources of data for model calibration, described in Section 3.4
above, are shown in Figure 5a.
Figures 5d and 5e present the calibration plots for spring tides against the tidal
diamonds and other data sources. The model set up achieved an appropriate
representation of the tidal flows under the existing conditions.
Figures 5f and 5g present the peak flood and ebb flow vectors under a mean spring tide
condition, respectively. Note, these vectors are plotted at a significantly coarser spacing
than the model resolution.
3.6 Water levels
For the period of the CEFAS waverider wave measurements, water levels were not
reported. Therefore, water levels based on standard tides were used in the wave
prediction runs.
3.7 Bathymetry
There were a number of different sources of bathymetry data available for this study
with the appropriate UK Admiralty Charts providing the depths over the majority of the
study area. The UK Admiralty Chart data was supplemented with a variety of
bathymetry surveys provided by the Port of London Authority as part of a series of
unrelated studies. In addition, recent survey data covering Kentish Flats, were also
made available from another unrelated study. These different sources of bathymetric
information were incorporated into the various wave and flow models considered in this
study to provide the most accurate and up to date models in the area of interest as
possible.
ESTUARY 39
4 Assumptions and simplifications in the modelling work
A number of assumptions and simplifications have been made in the application of the
wave models in this study. The following list summarises a few of the more notable of
them.
1. Offshore wave conditions were assumed to be uniform along the offshore boundary
of the models. This simplification could be improved by interpolating from a
number of offshore model points. Further improvement may be achieved by using
offshore wave conditions derived from the Met Office UK Waters model which has
a higher spatial resolution than the European wave model used in this study.
2. The spectral shape of the offshore wave conditions was assumed from the integrated
parameters in the absence of offshore spectra. This simplification could be
improved by calibration of the assumed spectra with measured spectra, or direct use
of the spectra from the offshore wave model.
3. Winds were assumed to be (spatially) uniform over the model area. This
assumption may be reasonable for applications over relatively small areas, but less
so for large areas. However, ideally, wind data should be interpolated from a high
resolution atmospheric model and measured winds.
4. The model wind data was obtained from the Met Office European Wave Model
archives held at HR Wallingford and had a relatively coarse temporal resolution (3-
hourly). This could be improved by using higher temporal resolution (1-hourly).
5. The wind data ignored gusts. Gusts may have a noticeable effect on wave
generation and therefore consideration of these winds may lead to improved
predictions.
6. Tidal currents were selected from the nearest tidal state from either spring or neap
tides. Improved agreement of wave conditions may be achieved by improving the
representation of the flow patterns. This could be achieved by running the tidal state
concurrent with the period of the measurements.
7. Water levels were predicted for periods when measured water levels were not
available. These predictions do not include surges due to low atmospheric pressure
or wind setup. Improved predictions of water levels over the area of interest, e.g. as
provided by a tidal flow model may lead to an improvement in the predicted wave
conditions.
5 Application of SWAN to the Outer Thames Estuary

A SWAN model was set up to cover the Outer Thames Estuary (see Figure 7). The
model extends offshore beyond Margate, in Kent, and Clacton-on-Sea, in Essex, and up
the Thames slightly beyond East Tilbury. It consists of a single rectangular grid aligned
with North. Figure 7 shows the extent of the model area. Figure 2 shows the Met
Office model point used and the location of the analysis point TW1 (see section 2) at
ESTUARY 40
The Warp measurement location. A grid spacing of 400m was used and the number of
grid cells is 143 by 120 and the origin of the model is at (602400, 166900) British Grid.
Depths in the SWAN model were based on UK Admiralty Charts, supplemented with
recent survey data in the area of interest provided by a number of sources. Figure 7
shows the model depths below OD(m), where OD was taken to be approximately 2.72m
above CD for the ESTPROC study.
Typically, waves approaching the coast will have components of wave energy with a range
of frequencies and directions. In order to represent this as realistically as possible, wave
energy spectra were fitted to each of the extreme offshore wave conditions. In the absence
of further information the offshore wave conditions were modelled using a JONSWAP
spectrum and a symmetric spreading function of cos2. These distributions are
representative of wind generated waves in the North Sea. The number of spectral
components used in SWAN were 36 directions by 25 frequencies.
For the non-stationary applications of SWAN the standard (Stelling and Leendertse)
propagation scheme had to be changed to the BSBT (backward-space, backward-time)
optional scheme to achieve stability.
6 Test programme and summary of sensitivity tests
6.1 Selection of tests periods
Three test periods were selected on the basis that they represent relatively stormy
periods when measured wave data was available. The test periods were also selected so
that different wind and wave conditions in the Outer Thames were represented. The test
periods include winds from a range of directional sectors, thus including a variety of
typical conditions.
The test periods cover between 1 to 3 days during which time the peak of the storms
occurred.
Summary of test periods

Dominant
Date Hsmax Measurements Measurement
Date/Time wind
Label (m) Location Device
direction(s)
26/03/2002 00:00
Directional wave
26/03/02 to N-NE-E 0.85 The Warp
rider
28/03/2002 00:00
26/04/2002 00:00
Directional wave
26/04/02 to NE-E 1.21 The Warp
rider
29/04/2002 00:00
05/04/2002 00:00
1.66 Directional wave
05/04/02 to SW-W The Warp
rider
08/04/2002 00:00
ESTUARY 41
Where Hsmax is the maximum significant wave height recorded during the period.
6.2 Sensitivity tests of SWAN
Numerical experimentation using the spectral wave model SWAN was also carried out
in this study. SWAN is frequently used by HR Wallingford and many other
organisations in consultancy studies to provide design and operation wave conditions
over an area and wave induced currents and bed orbital velocities for sedimentation
studies. Several questions of interest arise from these consultancy studies in the
application of SWAN to sites such as the Outer Thames Estuary:
• How critical is the model grid resolution?

• How significant a difference in prediction will be given for non-stationary runs of
SWAN versus a series of stationary model runs covering the same period?
• How important is the influence of currents on waves?
• How important are the non-linear triad interactions?
The following sections describe the series of sensitivity tests carried out to try to help
answer some of these questions.
6.2.1 Spatial model resolution
Preliminary model runs of SWAN were carried out using a system of nested grids with
a series of successively higher resolution grids centred on the area of interest. Grids
with spacing from 400m down to 50m were nested. The SWAN model runs over each
nested grid were carried out taking boundary conditions from the adjacent courser grid
to provide wave conditions at the same locations. Although there were differences in
the predicted wave conditions in the area of interest they were small. Therefore, for
efficiency reasons nested grids were not used in subsequent tests.
The selection of nested grids in SWAN for sites like the Outer Thames Estuary requires
careful consideration if used to represent non-stationary conditions. This is because the
order in which grids are run may have to be different depending on the prevailing
environmental conditions. This is a clear limitation for estuary cases with complex
boundaries where it will be more computationally efficient to use a series of nested
grids to define the model area.
6.2.2 Stationary vs. Non stationary
Spectral wave models such as SWAN can be run to predict both stationary and non-
stationary conditions. Stationary conditions can be assumed if the time it takes for
waves to travel over the model area is short compared with the variation of the
prevailing environmental conditions.
For the Outer Thames Estuary, waves from offshore will take between approximately 1
to 2 hours to travel from the offshore boundary to the sites of interest. During this
period both the tidal conditions and generation area can vary significantly. Therefore, it
ESTUARY 42
is uncertain if conditions can be considered as stationary. Therefore, both stationary
and non-stationary model runs were carried out for each test period.
Stationary model runs of SWAN solve the stationary version of the action balance
equation with the partial derivative of the action with respect to time ignored. This
provides a fetch limited solution. Non stationary model runs of SWAN solve the full
time dependent action balance equation. With time-varying boundary conditions this
provides duration or fetch limited waves. In practice non-stationary model runs of
SWAN require a warm up time. The warm up time can be reduced by starting the
model with a stationary model run to provide initial “hotstart” conditions.
6.2.3 With/without current action
Currents can affect wave conditions in a variety of ways. Firstly currents can lead to
waves refracting which will result in a change in wave height and direction. Currents
can also lead to the blocking of waves, whereby the incoming waves are held back by
the strength of the currents. This process often results in wave attenuation due to wave
breaking. These effects on the waves will depend on the strength and direction of the
current and the height, period and direction of the incident waves.
Tidal currents can be expected to be strong in most estuaries and if so will noticeably
influence wave conditions. For many estuaries the currents are also likely to be highly
spatially variable. The accurate prediction of waves under the influence of currents
requires accurate prediction of temporal and spatial variability of these currents. There
are ways to monitor currents over an area (eg HF Radar), but to provide flows over the
entire area of interest a practicable and accurate approach is to carry out computational
flow modelling.
In this study, tidal current fields from previous studies of the area of interest were re-
used to provide approximate current fields for the wave model test periods. Due to the
time taken to assemble appropriate flow fields for each time step in the test periods, not
all test periods include model runs with currents.
6.2.4 With/without triad interactions
As waves travel in shallow water non-linear interactions between groups of frequencies

in threes (triad interactions) become important (Eldeberky, 1996). In particular, these
interactions give rise to energy at higher frequencies. Taking into account this nonlinear
interaction accurately requires an excessive amount of computational resources
therefore, at present spectral wave models such as SWAN include a source term that
takes into account this process approximately. Since this term has the effect of
increasing energy at higher frequencies it could be construed that this term is the reason
why SWAN and similar spectral wave models quite often under-predict the mean wave
period. Thus SWAN model runs were carried out with and without the triad interaction
term. It should be noted that since SWAN has been calibrated with all the source terms
active the change in results due to disabling one source term may also be a function of
effectively altering the calibration.
ESTUARY 43
6.3 Guide to model runs.
The set of model runs presented in this report are summarised in Table 1. This gives the
complete list of test codes used in the presentation of results. Additional, preliminary
model runs were also carried out, but are not considered to be of importance and are not
presented in this report.
7 Presentation of results
The results from the model runs are presented as time series graphs. Each graph
includes the corresponding parameters from the in-situ measurements and the tidal
profile in the area of interest (plotted against the secondary y-axis). For each period
considered wind conditions and offshore wave conditions from the Met Office
European wave model are also presented on the same time scale. A selection of 2d
contour plots of significant wave height and mean wave period are also presented for a
selection of conditions. These figures enable a comparison of model results over the
area of interest.
Tables of simple statistical measures of the error in the predictions with respect to the
measured data are given in Tables 2 to 12. Each table summaries the root mean square
error (rmse), the standard deviation of the error (sd(err)), the minimum (min(err)) and
maximum error (max(err)) and the average deviation of the error (avedev(err)). These
relatively simple parameters are quite severe measures of model performance, since
small errors in the timing or phasing of events can lead to relatively large errors.
However, they provide a quantitative measure of the skill of the predictions over the test
period that can be compared for each model run.
7.1 Test period 26/03/02 (Site: The Warp)
For this test period wind directions veered from west, through north, to east with speeds
between 2 and 8ms-1 (see Figure 9a). Offshore waves (see Figure 9b) at the Met Office
model point (see Figure 2) started approximately southerly, but were predominately
north easterly to easterly. Corresponding offshore significant wave heights vary
between 0.2m and 1m.
Figure 9c shows the predicted significant wave heights plotted with the measured
significant wave heights. There is an apparent tidal dependence in the observations and
predicted conditions. The period of the maximum measured significant wave heights
(covering a period of approximately 5 hours) occurs during a flood tide. During this
period the measured significant wave heights are above 0.6m
The stationary run of SWAN (H260302) is in reasonably good agreement for the full
length of the test period. Although the non-stationary runs of SWAN are initialised
with a stationary model run there is an apparent warm up period with an unaccountable
initial period of 6 hours. During this period the model results are approximately
constant and very low before rising up for a period of 9 hours to approximately the same
predictions as the stationary run of SWAN. After about 24 hours the non-stationary
model predictions appear to be in much better agreement with the measured and
ESTUARY 44
stationary model predictions. In this situation it should be remembered that the model
was started at a time when the wind was shifting direction so it is difficult to specify
steady state conditions. Table 2 shows that rms errors in significant wave height are
less than 0.2m for all the SWAN runs presented. This includes the start up period,
where relevant, so is possibly conservative. Table 2 shows that the model consistently
under-predicted the significant wave height.
The influence of the tidal currents is most evident in the graphs of mean wave period
(see Figure 9d). SWAN appears to have a tendency to under-predict the wave period.
Without current effects (H260302 and U260302-1) the wave periods show a degree of
variability over the tide, but not as distinct as shown for the measured mean wave
period. With currents (although only approximate) the effect is clear with the variation
over the tidal cycle reproduced well, although consistently approximately 1 second low.
Table 3 shows that the corresponding improvement in the rms error in mean wave
period is quite small (only about 0.2s) compared with the run without flows.
Figure 9d also shows that for the run without triad interactions the under-prediction
increases, with an rms error given in Table 3 of approximately 1.5 seconds.
Regarding the predicted wave directions, Figure 9e, shows that the models predict the
trend in wave directions measured. However, it is only in the later period that the model
accurately reproduces the wave direction. In the earlier part of the period some of the
more obvious fluctuations evident in the measured wave directions are not well
represented by the model and there is also a long section when the model predictions are
between approximately 20° to 30° in error. This is possibly because the offshore waves
and winds are producing waves from opposing directions, complicating the
measurement and prediction of wave direction. It is also interesting to note the
difference in the predicted mean direction for the run with and without triad interactions
(F260302-2 and F260302-3, respectively). Table 4 gives rms errors of between 30° and
60°, with the lowest errors for those runs of SWAN with currents included.
In summary the main observations were:
4. Runs with flows gave more noticeable improvement to the wave period and wave
direction prediction
5. Shorter time steps than the boundary conditions did not give any noticeable
improvement
6. Without triad interactions resulted in noticeably worse errors
7. Stationary runs gave the lowest errors on significant wave height; but note no
stationary runs were carried out with flows.
For this test period the wind speeds are significantly higher with speeds in excess of
13ms-1 (see Figure 10a). Wind directions are also consistently north easterly. Similarly
offshore waves (see Figure 10b) at the Met Office model point are higher and increase
to as much as approximately 2.5m with corresponding mean periods of approximately
6s.
ESTUARY 45
Figure 10c shows again the apparent tidal dependence in the observations and predicted
conditions. In general the model predictions compare well with the measured
conditions, although the maximum wave heights during this period are slightly under-
predicted. This is confirmed in the statistics given in Table 5. This table shows that
rms errors in significant wave height are below 0.2m for all runs. Little difference in
error is given between the cases with and without flows, but there is greater error
without triad interactions.
As previously noted, mean wave periods (see Figure 10d) are generally under-predicted,
by approximately 1s, but the variation is much better represented by the inclusion of
tidal currents in the wave model. This is confirmed in Table 6 which gives rms errors
below 1s for all three tests.
Values of Tp (see Figure 10e) for the measured data appear to be better predicted than
the mean period, with rms errors (Table 7) for the run with currents (HF050402) down
to approximately 0.7s. Again a worsening in predicted wave periods can be observed
for the runs without triad interactions. Table 7 gives rms errors of predicted peak period
below 0.7s for runs presented with the triad interactions, but only below 0.9s for those
without triads.
Predictions of the mean wave directions are in reasonably good agreement and, as given
in Table 8, are generally within 10° of the measured directions.
For this period the winds are between 10 and 17ms-1 and are generally westerly (see
Figure 11a). The generation area to the west is relatively short and also varies in shape
with the tide. As shown in Figure 11b offshore the significant wave heights are between
0.5 and approximately 2m with mean periods of between 3.5s and 5.5s. Figure 11b also
shows the direction of these waves is also westerly, so that the waves reaching the
measurement point are predominately locally generated within the area of interest.
For this period measured significant wave heights are as high as 1.2m and occur at high
water when winds are strongest and are from the south-west. Figure 11c shows that the
model predictions are, in general, in good agreement with the measured significant
wave heights, but appear to slightly over predict. Both model runs for this period were
carried out without flows, but the runs show the difference between using predictions of
the tide level and a constant tide level. Little difference is shown between these two
runs, which suggests that it is the flows rather than the water level that have greater
influence on the wave conditions. Rms errors in significant wave height, as shown in
Table 9, are less than 0.2m, and maximum errors less than 0.4m
Figure 11d clearly shows that the measured mean wave periods vary with the tidal
cycle. This is not reproduced in the predictions because the runs were carried out
without flows. This figure shows a general under-prediction of wave periods with mean
periods in error by as much as approximately 2 seconds. Table 10 gives rms errors of
below 1s (see Table 10). Predictions of peak period have slightly lower rms errors,
below 0.9s.
ESTUARY 46
For the majority of the test period the mean wave direction is accurately predicted and
consistently within 10° of the measured directions. Rms errors of the direction
predictions, given in Table 12, are less than 11°.
8 Conclusions
Wave modelling in the Outer Thames Estuary provides a demanding challenge of the
wave models since it features a series of shallow offshore banks and intertidal areas
which influence the wave generation area, provide shelter from offshore waves and lead
to complex tidal current patterns. Independent measurements taken within the Estuary
were available for comparison when concurrent boundary conditions necessary for the
model runs were also available.
It has been shown that more complex area-wide third generation spectral wave models
such as SWAN can provide reasonably accurate predictions of wave conditions. This is
achieved without modification to their normal use. Note for non-stationary model runs
of SWAN the non-default BSBT propagation scheme was required to avoid model
instability. Third generation models such as SWAN are expected to provide more
accurate predictions than their first and second generation counterparts since waves at
the sites of interest are expected to be bi-modal, something that the first and second
generation models cannot represent. This can only be verified by comparison with 2d-
spectra from measured data.
The application of SWAN to the Outer Thames Estuary was more straightforward; the
main problem is that the wave periods are consistently underestimated. Sensitivity tests
of SWAN showed that:
• non-stationary model runs gave no notable improvement in accuracy compared

with a series of stationary model runs
• for non-stationary model runs no significant improvement in the results is obtained
with time steps shorter than the time steps of the boundary conditions.
• including triad interactions provides more accurate results than without triad
interactions.
• including refraction due to tidal flows made more notable difference to the wave
periods and wave directions rather than the wave height.
• tidal flows had a greater influence on the wave conditions compared with the water
levels.
ESTUARY 47
Table 1 Guide to model runs and code numbers (site: The Warp)
Test Test
Model Description
Period Code
26/3/02 SWAN H260302 Individual stationary runs – no currents
Nonstationary 48hr run. 1hr timesteps.
26/3/02 SWAN U260302-1 3hr winds & offshore waves. 1hr water
levels from tidecalc (Shivering Sand).
Nonstationary 48hr run. 1hr timesteps.
3hr winds & offshore waves. 1hr water
26/3/02 SWAN F260302-1
levels from tidecalc and Telemac currents
(spring)
26/3/02 SWAN F260302-2 As F260302-1 but with 20 min timesteps
As F260302-2 but with triads switched
26/3/02 SWAN F260302-3
OFF
05/4/02 SWAN H050402 Stationary. No flow
05/4/02 SWAN HF050402 Stationary. Flow.
05/4/02 SWAN HFT050402 Stationary. Flow. No Triads.
26/4/02 SWAN H260402-1 Stationary. No flow.
Stationary. No flow.
26/4/02 SWAN H260402-1
Constant water level (=0.0mOD)
Codes:
H: Stationary – without currents
U: Non-stationary – without currents
F: Non-stationary – with currents
Table 2 Significant wave height (Hs(m)) error statistics (26/03/02) (The Warp)
SWAN non- SWAN with SWAN SWAN with SWAN with

stationary flow stationary flow flow
U260302-1 F260302-1 H260302 F260302-2 F260302-3
Hs Hs Hs* Hs Hs
rmse 0.15 0.17 0.08 0.14 0.20
sd(err) 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.13 0.13
min(err) -0.35 -0.39 -0.21 -0.36 -0.52
max(err) 0.17 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.05
mean(err) -0.05 -0.08 -0.01 -0.06 -0.16
avedev(err) 0.12 0.13 0.06 0.11 0.10
* Indicates statistics based on comparison of 3 hourly data
ESTUARY 48
Table 3 Mean wave period (Tm02(s)) error statistics (26/03/02) (The Warp)

U260302-1 F260302-1 H260302 F260302-2 F260302-3
Tz Tz Tz* Tz Tz
rmse 1.21 1.02 1.09 1.05 1.46
sd(err) 0.39 0.35 0.46 0.35 0.45
min(err) -1.95 -1.57 -1.79 -1.52 -2.12
max(err) -0.59 0.24 -0.28 0.19 0.12
mean(err) -1.14 -0.96 -0.99 -0.99 -1.39
avedev(err) 0.33 0.24 0.39 0.24 0.30
Table 4 Mean wave direction (Dir(°)) error statistics (26/03/02) (The Warp)

U260302-1 F260302-1 H260302 F260302-2 F260302-3
Dir Dir Dir* Dir Dir
rmse 58 30 43 32 34
sd(err) 58 30 45 32 33
min(err) -153.8 -84 -143 -83 -83
max(err) 146.2 35 38 40 48
mean(err) 7.8 -4 -4 -5 9
avedev(err) 36.1 23 27 24 25
ESTUARY 49
SWAN with
SWAN SWAN with
flow/no
stationary flow
triads
H050402 HF050402
HFT050402
Hs Hs Hs
rmse 0.12 0.13 0.17
sd(err) 0.12 0.13 0.13
min(err) -0.34 -0.37 -0.45
max(err) 0.18 0.20 0.12
mean(err) -0.02 -0.04 -0.11
avedev(err) 0.10 0.10 0.11
SWAN with
SWAN SWAN with
flow/no
stationary flow
triads
H050402 HF050402
HFT050402
Tm02 Tm02 Tm02
rmse 0.92 0.86 0.96
sd(err) 0.39 0.21 0.21
min(err) -1.61 -1.29 -1.42
max(err) -0.28 -0.45 -0.56
mean(err) -0.84 -0.84 -0.94
avedev(err) 0.33 0.17 0.17
ESTUARY 50
Table 7 Peak wave period (Tp(s)) error statistics (05/04/02) (The Warp)
SWAN with
SWAN SWAN with
flow/no
stationary flow
triads
H050402 HF050402
HFT050402
Tp Tp Tp
rmse 0.66 0.66 0.84
sd(err) 0.67 0.63 0.65
min(err) -1.18 -1.51 -1.65
max(err) 2.47 2.11 2.02
mean(err) -0.08 -0.22 -0.54
avedev(err) 0.46 0.43 0.43
SWAN with
SWAN SWAN with
flow/no
stationary flow
triads
H050402 HF050402
HFT050402
Dir Dir Dir
rmse 8.84 8.71 9.31
sd(err) 8.54 8.30 8.86
min(err) -25.75 -24.75 -26.25
max(err) 17.45 16.88 17.21
mean(err) 2.68 3.00 3.23
avedev(err) 6.45 6.27 6.86
ESTUARY 51
SWAN stationary SWAN stationary

H260402-1 H260402-2
Hs Hs
rmse 0.17 0.18
sd(err) 0.11 0.13
min(err) -0.03 -0.06
max(err) 0.36 0.39
mean(err) 0.11 0.11
avedev(err) 0.09 0.10
SWAN SWAN
stationary stationary
H260402-1 H260402-2
Tm02 Tm02
rmse 0.94 0.95
sd(err) 0.53 0.55
min(err) -1.84 -1.85
max(err) -0.14 -0.08
mean(err) -0.80 -0.80
Table 11 Peak wave period (Tp(s)) error statistics (26/04/02) (The Warp)
SWAN SWAN
stationary stationary
H260402-1 H260402-2
Tp Tp
rmse 0.79 0.80
sd(err) 0.79 0.80
min(err) -1.61 -1.67
max(err) 1.34 1.15
mean(err) -0.21 -0.25
ESTUARY 52
SWAN stationary SWAN stationary

H260402-1 H260402-2
Dir Dir
rmse 10.93 10.60
sd(err) 11.06 10.75
min(err) -23.93 -19.98
max(err) 20.29 21.12
mean(err) 1.28 1.13
ESTUARY 53
Figure 1 Site Location
(Reproduced from Admiralty Chart 1183 by permission of the Controller of HMSO and
the Hydrographic Office)
ESTUARY 54
225000
ESTUARY
Clacton
215000
205000
CEFAS
Warpbuoy
195000 directional Met Office
waverider EU model
point used
55
Northing (m)
185000
Met Office EU
Grep wave recorder model grid
175000
points
Isle
of Sheppey Margate
165000
155000
560000 570000 580000 590000 600000 610000 620000 630000 640000 650000 660000 670000 680000 690000
Easting (m)
Figure 2 Wave measurement devices and model point locations
1.8
ESTUARY
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Hs (m)
0.8
56
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
19/03/2002 29/03/2002 08/04/2002 18/04/2002 28/04/2002 08/05/2002 18/05/2002 28/05/2002 07/06/2002 17/06/2002 27/06/2002 07/07/2002
Date
Hm0
Figure 3a Significant wave height from the measured data at The Warp
10.0
9.0
ESTUARY
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
Period (s)
57
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
19/03/2002 29/03/2002 08/04/2002 18/04/2002 28/04/2002 08/05/2002 18/05/2002 28/05/2002 07/06/2002 17/06/2002 27/06/2002 07/07/2002
Date
Tp Tz
Figure 3b Wave periods from the measured data at The Warp
400
ESTUARY
350
300
250
200
Dir (oN)
58
150
100
50
0
19/03/2002 29/03/2002 08/04/2002 18/04/2002 28/04/2002 08/05/2002 18/05/2002 28/05/2002 07/06/2002 17/06/2002 27/06/2002 07/07/2002
Date
W_DIR
Figure 3c Mean wave direction from the measured data at The Warp
24.00
ESTUARY
21.00
18.00
15.00
12.00
59
Wind speed (m/s)
9.00
6.00
3.00
0.00
01/11/2002 07/11/2002 13/11/2002 19/11/2002 25/11/2002 01/12/2002 07/12/2002 13/12/2002 19/12/2002 25/12/2002 31/12/2002 06/01/2003
Date
Met mast Met Office EU model
Figure 4 Comparison of measured and model wind data
200000
ESTUARY
Figure 5a
195000
Fisherman’s
Gat
190000 J
Mouse G
Channel Q
185000
C
X
4 L
West
180000 R 1 F
60
Oaze 2
W
175000
170000
TELEMAC-2d flow model – calibration points

165000
160000
590000 600000 610000 620000 630000 640000 650000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
600000 650000 700000 750000 800000 850000
Figure 5b TELEMAC-2d flow model – model mesh
ESTUARY 61
400000
Bathymetry
(mOD)
5.0
0.0
350000 -5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
300000
-25.0
-30.0
-35.0
-40.0
250000
-45.0
-50.0
-55.0
200000
150000
100000
50000
600000 650000 700000 750000 800000 850000
Figure 5c TELEMAC-2d flow model – model bathymetry
ESTUARY 62
flow
C F G
2 360
ESTUARY
Figure 5d
1.5 270
1 180
0.5 90
speed (m/s)
0 0
sdirection (degrees)
-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 -7
7-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 -7
7-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7
J L Q
2 360
1.5 270
63
1 180
0.5 90
speed (m/s)
0 0
-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 -7
7-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 -7
7-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7
Hours after HW Hours after HW Hours after HW
model speed model direction

observed speed observed direction
TELEMAC-2d flow model – comparison of modelled and measured
R W X
flow
2 360
ESTUARY
Figure 5e
1.5 270
1 180
0.5 90
speed (m/s)
0 0
-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 -7
7-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7-7
7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7
1 2 4
2 360
1.5 270
1 180
0.5 90
speed (m/s)
64
0 0
-4.5 -2.5 -0.5 1.5 3.5 5.5 7.5 9.5

-4.5 -2.5 -0.5 1.5 3.5 5.5 7.5 9.5
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Fisherman’s Gat Mouse Channel West Oaze

2 360
1.5 270
1 180
0.5 90
speed (m/s)
0 0
-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7-7
7 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 -7
7-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7
Hours after HW Hours after HW Hours after HW
model speed model direction
observed speed observed direction
TELEMAC-2d flow model - comparison of modelled and measured

Velocity
1 m/s
650000
640000
630000
620000
610000
600000
590000
200000
195000
190000
185000
180000
175000
170000
165000
160000
Figure 5f TELEMAC-2d flow model – peak flood vectors (mean spring tide)
ESTUARY 65
Velocity
1 m/s
650000
640000
630000
620000
610000
600000
590000
200000
195000
190000
185000
180000
175000
170000
165000
160000
Figure 5g TELEMAC-2d flow model – peak ebb vectors (mean spring tide)
ESTUARY 66
Depth below
datum (m)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
80000
70000
60000
Easting (m)
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
40000
30000
20000
10000
Northing (m)
Figure 7 SWAN model grid and bathymetry
ESTUARY 67
9.00
350
8.00
300
7.00
250
6.00
Wind speed (m/s)
Direction (deg N)
5.00 200
4.00
150
3.00
100
2.00
50
1.00
0.00 0
26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 28/03/02
00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00
Model wind speed Wind Direction
Figure 9a Met Office Model wind data (26/03/02 – 28/03/02)
1.20
350
1.00 300
250
0.80
Direction (deg N)
200
Hs (m)
0.60
150
0.40
100
0.20
50
0.00 0
26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 28/03/02
00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00
Model Offshore Hs Offshore Dir
Figure 9b Met Office offshore wave data (26/03/02 – 28/03/02)

0.9 3
0.8
2
0.7
0.6 1
Tide level (m)
0.5
Hs (m)
0
0.4
0.3 -1
0.2
-2
0.1
0.0 -3
26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 28/03/02
00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00
Date/Time
Measured U260302-1 F260302-1 F260302-2 F260302-3 H260302 TOMAWAC water level
Figure 9c Measured and modelled significant wave height (26/03/02 – 28/03/02)
ESTUARY 68
4.0 3
3.5
2
3.0
1
2.5
Tide level (m)

Tm02 (s)
2.0 0
1.5
-1
1.0
-2
0.5
0.0 -3
26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 28/03/02
00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00
Date/Time
Measured H260302 U260302-1 F260302-2 F260302-3 F260302-1 TOMAWAC water level
Figure 9d Measured and modelled mean wave period (26/03/02 – 28/03/02)
3
350.0
300.0 2
250.0
1
Tide level (m)

Dir (degN)
200.0
0
150.0
-1
100.0
-2
50.0
0.0 -3
26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 26/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 27/03/02 28/03/02
00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00
Date/Time
Measured U260302-1 F260302-1 F260302-2 F260302-3 H260302 TOMAWAC water level
Figure 9e Measured and modelled mean wave direction (26/03/02 – 28/03/02)
ESTUARY 69
SWAN Hs(m)
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
40000
30000
20000
10000
Figure 9f Predicted significant wave heights over SWAN model (Test code:
H260302)
ESTUARY 70
20 360
18
315
16
270
14
225
12
Dirn (degN)
U (m/s)
10 180
8
135
6
90
4
45
2
0 0
05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 08/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
Date/Time
wind speed wind direction
7 360
315
6
270
5
225
4
Hs(m) Tm(s)
Dirn (degN)
180
3
135
2
90
1
45
0 0
05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 08/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
Date/Time
Hs Tm Direction
ESTUARY 71
1.8 2.4
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
Tide level (m)

1
Hs (m)
0.8
0
0.6
0.4
-0.8
0.2
0 -1.6
05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 08/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
Measured H050402 HF050402 HFT050402 Tide level
8 2
7 1.5
6 1
5 0.5
Tide level (m)

Tm02 (s)
4 0
3 -0.5
2 -1
1 -1.5
0 -2
05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 08/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
ESTUARY 72
8 2
7 1.5
6 1
5 0.5
Tp (s)
4 0
3 -0.5
2 -1
1 -1.5
0 -2
05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 08/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
Figure 10e Measured and modelled peak wave period (05/04/02 – 08/04/02)
350 1.7
300 1.2
250 0.7
Tide level (m)

200 0.2
Dir (degN)
150 -0.3
100 -0.8
50 -1.3
0 -1.8
05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 05/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 06/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 07/04/02 08/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
Figure 10f Measured and modelled mean wave direction (05/04/02 – 08/04/02)
ESTUARY 73
20 360
18
315
16
270
14
225
12
Dirn (degN)
U (m/s)
10 180
8
135
6
90
4
45
2
0 0
26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 29/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
Date/Time
model wind speed wind direction
6 360
315
5
270
4
225
Hs(m) Tm(s)
Dirn (degN)
3 180
135
2
90
1
45
0 0
26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 29/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
Date/Time
Hs Tm Direction
ESTUARY 74
1.8 4
1.6
3
1.4
2
1.2
1
Tide level (m)

1
Hs(m)
0.8
-1
0.6
-2
0.4
-3
0.2
0 -4
26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 29/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
Measured H260402 H260402-2 Tide level
8 4
7 3
6 2
5 1
Tide level (m)

Tm02 (s)
4 0
3 -1
2 -2
1 -3
0 -4
26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 29/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
ESTUARY 75
8 4
7 3
6 2
5 1
Tide level (m)

Tp (s)
4 0
3 -1
2 -2
1 -3
0 -4
26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 29/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
Date/Time
Figure 11e Measured and modelled peak wave period (26/04/02 – 29/04/02)
360 4
310 3
260 2
210 1
Direction (degN)
Tide level (m)

160 0
110 -1
60 -2
10 -3
26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 26/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 27/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 28/04/02 29/04/02
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
-40 -4
Date/Time
Figure 11f Measured and modelled mean wave direction (26/04/02 – 29/04/02)
ESTUARY 76
Appendix 2
Sensitivity of wave conditions to currents and water levels
1 Introduction
Wave conditions in the Outer Thames will be affected by tidal currents and water levels.
Sensitivity tests to these parameters were carried out using the SWAN model.
The following sections present the results of these tests.
2 Currents
2.1 SWAN modelling of tidal currents
Flow fields and water levels for the SWAN model were obtained from the TELEMAC
model of the Outer Thames (EP 1.4).
Two tidal flows were tested:
• ebb tide – 10/08/02 16:00

• flood tide – 12/08/02 00:00
The tides on these dates correspond to mean spring tide conditions. These tide times
were selected because flows were strong in the centre of the centre of the estuary and
over the shallow banks in the Outer Thames. Figure 1 and Figure 2 present the
TELEMAC flow fields for the Outer Thames.
The SWAN model was run for each tide for the wind conditions corresponding to the
0.1 year and 100 year return periods (Section 2 main body of report). In addition to the
wind conditions for these sensitivity tests offshore waves were also applied along the
model boundary. This was included to allow for the possibility that the flows may
transform longer period offshore wave energy to the points of interest.
The extreme wave conditions at points N11 to N13 and S12 to S15 corresponding to the
0.1 and 100 year return period are presented in Tables 1 to 7. Each table contains 3
columns of wave conditions. Column 1 presents the SWAN model results for the 0.1
and 100 year return period conditions at MHWS (Section 3 main body report). Column
2 presents the SWAN model results for the ebb tide and Column 3 presents the SWAN
model results for the flood tide.
Also the SWAN model runs for the 0.1 year return period waves due to winds and
waves from 90°N are presented in Figures 3 and 4 as colour contour plots of significant
wave height. Figure 3 presents the ebb tide results and Figure 4 flood tide results.
These figures can be compared with Figure 5 of the main body of the report.
ESTUARY 77
Tables 1 to 7 show that at the points of interest the worst waves occur at Mean High
Water Springs.
The general effect of an ebb tide flowing in the opposite direction to the direction of
wave propagation is to decrease the wave length of the wave, hence increase its
steepness which results in a higher wave height. The general effect of a flood tide
flowing in the direction of wave propagation is to increase wave length, decrease
steepness and hence results in lower wave height. In addition to this both ebb and flood
tide will cause waves to refract, the degree of which will be depend on the speed of flow
and difference between wave and flow directions.
For the Outer Thames, Figures 3 and 4 (in comparison with Figure 5 main body of the
report) best show these effects. Figure 3, the ebb tide, shows higher waves in the centre
of the estuary compared with MHWS and Figure 4, the flood tide shows lower waves
compared with MHWS.
3 Water levels
3.1 SWAN modelling of water levels
For the sensitivity to water level tests it was considered useful to select conditions that
could be assigned an approximate return period. Extreme water levels at Southend were
derived in EP7. This analysis gave the 1 year and 100 year return period water levels of
3.5mOD and 4.5mOD respectively. All previous SWAN model runs have been carried
out at MHWS (2.9m OD).
As part of EP7 a joint probability analysis of wind speeds and water levels was also
carried out. Return periods from the 2 to 2000 year conditions were considered. From
these conditions the 100 year joint probability return period was selected as the event
for the sensitivity to water level tests.
The 100 year joint probability of winds from the direction sector 5°-95°N and water
levels is presented in the following Table.
Table Joint probability of wind speeds from the direction sector 5°-95°N and
water levels
Return period Water level Wind speed

(years) (mOD) (ms-1)
100 2.50 22.77
100 3.00 22.75
100 3.30 22.45
100 3.60 21.44
100 3.90 19.77
100 4.00 19.00
100 4.13 18.00
100 4.20 17.12
100 4.20 17.00
ESTUARY 78
Return period Water level Wind speed
(years) (mOD) (ms-1)
100 4.26 16.00
100 4.32 14.50
100 4.36 13.00
100 4.39 11.00
The wind speeds in the table above are for the 90° direction sector 5°-95°N. The
extreme wind speeds from this 90° sector were very similar to those for the 30° sector
5°-35°N. Hence it was possible to use the above table to select water level/wind speed
combinations for testing. Three conditions were selected, a frequently occurring water
level, an extreme return period water level and a water level corresponding to a return
period event between the two. These conditions are presented in the following table.
Water level Wind condition Description

Approximate Level Approximate Wind
Return period (mOD) Return period speed
(years) (years) (ms-1)
50 4.3 1 15.00 This wind speed is similar to
the 1 year return period wind
speed for the sector 5°-35°N
10 4.0 10 19.00 This wind speed is similar to
the 10 year return period wind
speed for the sector 5°-35°N
~MHWS 3.0 100 22.75 This condition corresponds to
the Swan runs at MHWS for the
100 year return period wind
conditions
As with the tests of sensitivity to currents, offshore waves were applied along the
offshore boundary of the model for the 10 year and 50 year return period water level
runs. A range of wind directions were considered, in each case the appropriate 30°
sector return period wind speed was used, not those presented in the above table.
The extreme wave conditions at points N11 to N13 and S12 to S15 corresponding to the
100 year joint probability return period conditions are presented in Tables 8 to 14.
Figure 5 presents a colour contour plot of significant wave height for the 10 year return
period wind speed, 10 year return period water level results due to wind and waves from
30°N. This figure can be compared with Figure 8 of the main body of the report.
From Tables 8 to 14 it can be seen that for all but the most exposed locations (N13, S14
and S15), the 100 year return period wind speed at MHWS results in the highest waves
compared with the higher water levels/lower wind speed combinations.
At location N13, S14 and S15 the highest waves occurred for the 10 year return period
wind speed/10 year return period water level, with significant wave heights of 1.39m,
ESTUARY 79
1.21m and 1.50m respectively. These compare to the MHWS results of 1.23m for N13,
1.16m for S14 and 1.41m for S15.
4 Conclusions
The sensitivity tests to currents showed, at almost all the points of interest, that the
highest waves occur at MHWS (the one exception is S12, where waves are 2cm higher
during the ebb tide). It has also been shown that waves in the centre of the estuary are
higher during an ebb tide, compared with MHWS and a flood tide.
The sensitivity tests to water level showed that for the inner points in the Outer Estuary,
for the 100 year joint probability conditions (water level / windspeed), significant wave
heights were highest for the (MHWS / 100 year return period wind speed) combination.
For the most exposed locations N13, S14 and S15, the (10 year return period wind
speed/ 10 year return period water level) resulted in the highest waves. The largest
difference between extremes presented (for MHWS) and those investigated during these
sensitivity tests is approximately +0.2m.
ESTUARY 80
Table 1 Extreme wave conditions at Position N11 – sensitivity to tidal currents
Waves from the Outer Estuary Waves from the Outer Estuary Waves from the Outer Estuary
(no current) (ebb current) (flood current)
ESTUARY
Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.63 2.11 93 0.51 2.30 101 0.37 1.33 108
100 1.05 2.35 100 0.87 2.92 108 0.67 1.80 116

Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.62 2.16 106 0.53 2.45 103 0.38 1.34 125
100 1.02 2.45 112 0.96 2.84 109 0.81 2.00 125
81
Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.81 2.49 112 0.50* 2.60 127 0.42* 1.58 132
100 1.23 2.95 124 0.53* 2.50 130 0.44* 1.54 134
* Note for ebb and flood flows waves are breaking at N13
Table 4 Extreme wave conditions at Position S12 – sensitivity to tidal currents

Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.51 1.85 39 0.52 2.77 37 0.43 1.24 23
100 0.96 2.17 26 0.98 3.02 27 0.87 1.77 13
ESTUARY
Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.61 1.97 56 0.56 2.42 48 0.47 1.36 33
100 1.01 2.20 39 0.90 2.82 32 0.76 2.04 19

Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.72 2.25 50 0.53 2.42 48 0.42* 1.82 31
100 1.16 2.77 36 0.67 2.37 33 0.48* 1.77 24
* Note for flood flow waves are breaking at S14
82
Return
Period
(years)
0.1 0.90 2.58 63 0.60 2.49 53 0.64 1.96 31
100 1.41 3.15 41 0.80 2.63 31 0.83 2.49 26
Table 8 Position N11 - 100 year joint probability wave conditions
Extreme water level Waves from the Outer Estuary
of wind
(years)
Return
period Approximate Level (mOD) Hs (m) Tm(s) Dir (°N)
speed
return period
(years)
1 50 4.3 0.92 2.45 92
10 10 4.0 1.04 2.39 94
100 MHWS 2.9 1.05 2.35 100

of wind
(years)
Return
Approximate Level (mOD) Hs (m) Tm(s) Dir (°N)

period
speed
return period
(years)
1 50 4.3 0.88 2.50 106
10 10 4.0 0.98 2.43 108
100 MHWS 2.9 1.02 2.45 112

of wind
(years)
Return

period
speed
return period
(years)
1 50 4.3 1.24 3.04 112
10 10 4.0 1.39 3.29 115
100 MHWS 2.9 1.23 2.95 124
Table 11 Position S12 - 100 year joint probability wave conditions

of wind
(years)
Return

period
speed
return period
(years)
1 50 4.3 0.70 2.08 32
10 10 4.0 0.85 2.12 30
100 MHWS 2.9 0.96 2.17 26

of wind
(years)
Return

period
speed
return period
(years)
1 50 4.3 0.87 2.33 56
10 10 4.0 0.97 2.34 56
100 MHWS 2.9 1.01 2.20 39
ESTUARY 83
of wind
(years)
Return
period Approximate Level (mOD) Hs (m) Tm(s) Dir (°N)
speed
return period
(years)
1 50 4.3 1.08 2.76 51
10 10 4.0 1.21 2.73 50
100 MHWS 2.9 1.16 2.77 36

of wind
(years)
Return

period
speed
return period
(years)
1 50 4.3 1.32 3.11 65
10 10 4.0 1.50 3.04 50
100 MHWS 2.9 1.41 3.15 41
ESTUARY 84
Water surface Scale:
m OD(N) 1 m/s
240000 1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
230000 0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
220000 -0.60
-0.80
-1.00
210000
200000
190000
180000
170000
160000
590000 600000 610000 620000 630000 640000 650000
Figure 1 TELEMAC model results – Ebb tide 10/08/02 16:00
ESTUARY 85
Water surface Scale:
m OD(N) 1 m/s
240000 2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
230000 1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
220000 0.40
0.20
0.00
210000
200000
190000
180000
170000
160000
590000 600000 610000 620000 630000 640000 650000
Figure 2 TELEMAC model results – Flood tide 12/08/02 00:00
ESTUARY 86
Significant wave
height (m)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Figure 3 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N – Ebb tide
ESTUARY 87
Significant wave
height (m)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Figure 4 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N – Flood tide
ESTUARY 88
Significant wave
height (m)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Figure 5 100 year joint probability year waves due to wind from 30 °N – 10
year wind speed/10 year water level
ESTUARY 89
ESTUARY 90
Thames Estuary 2100
Estuary
Sensitivity of Thames wave conditions to

changes in the Outer Bank system of
channels and banks
Significant wave
height (m)
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Status:
Date:
31/08/2005
Environment Agency
Thames Estuary 2100

Sensitivity of Thames wave conditions to the changes in Outer
Bank system of channels and banks
August 2005
TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2.4 – SENSITIVITY OF THAMES WAVE CONDITIONS TO
CHANGES IN THE OUTER BANK SYSTEM OF CHANNELS AND BANKS
ii
SUMMARY
defence loading. This technical note describes the assessment of the sensitivity of
waves in the Upper Thames Estuary for reach T3 between Sea Reach and Southend due
to the changing morphology of the sandbanks in the approaches to the Thames.
Extreme wave conditions were derived for 7 locations (N11-N13 and S12-S15 in Figure
1) for two morphologies; the bathymetry in 1909 and present day bathymetry with the
banks and channels in the approaches to the Thames increased in depth by 1m. The
SWAN computational model setup in EP2.3 was used together with UKMO model
wind data, also presented in EP2.3.

iii
iv
CONTENTS
SUMMARY iii
1. Introduction 1
2. Winds 1
3. Waves 2
3.1 Application of SWAN to the Outer Thames for different Outer Bank
morpholgies 2
5. References 4
Tables
Figures
Figure 2 Present day bathymetry of the SWAN model 6
Figure 3 1909 bathymetry of the SWAN model 7
Figure 4 Present day + 1m bathymetry of the SWAN model 8
Figure 5 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N – present day bathymetry 9
Figure 6 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N – 1909 bathymetry 10
Figure 7 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N – present day + 1m bathymetry 11

v
vi
1. INTRODUCTION
Natural waves in the Tideway Reach T3 between Sea Reach and Southend are a
combination of wind waves generated locally across the reach and waves that propagate
from offshore over the sandbanks in the Outer Thames. These waves depend on a
number of forcing parameters including:

The SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) 3rd generation spectral wave transformation
model was setup and used to represent both wave generation due to winds and
transformation over the sandbanks in the Outer Thames (see Section 3) in EP2.3. As
part of EP7 several wind data sources were analysed. For the SWAN model the most
applicable source of wind data was UKMO model winds from the Thames Approaches
(see Section 2).
To assess the effect on wave conditions in the Tideway Reach T3 due to the changing
morphology of the sandbanks in the approaches to the Thames two morphologies were
considered:

Extreme wave conditions corresponding to the 0.1 year and 100 year return periods
were derived at 7 locations, (N11-N13 and S12-S15 in Figure 1) using the SWAN
model.
2. WINDS
A comparison of several wind data sources was undertaken in EP7. For the purposes of
the SWAN modelling the UKMO model wind data from the point 51.50°N, 01.14°E
was selected. Extreme wind conditions corresponding to the 0.1, 1, 10, 100 and 1000
year return periods were derived as part of EP7 from which the 0.1 and 100 year return
period conditions were selected for use for the morphology sensitivity tests. These are
presented in the following table.
Three hour duration UKMO model extreme wind speeds (m/s)
Return 006-035°N 036-65°N 66-95°N 96-125°N

period
(years) 3 hour duration wind speeds
0.1 11.3 11.3 10.6 8.9
100 22.2 18.4 18.5 19.0

1
3. WAVES
As part of EP2.3 the SWAN model and UKMO winds were used to derive extreme
wave conditions for wind directions between north and east (Reference 1). This model
was modified to represent the 1909 bathymetry and the present day bathymetry with
outer bank channels and banks increased in depth by 1m.
Wave conditions were derived at 7 locations in reach T3, (Figure 1), for each
morphology. Three locations were on the northern bank of the estuary (N11-N13) and
four locations were on the southern bank (S12-S15).
3.1 Application of SWAN to the Outer Thames for different Outer Bank
morphologies
The SWAN model extends offshore beyond Margate, in Kent, and Clacton-on-Sea, in
Essex, and up the Thames slightly beyond East Tilbury. It consists of a system of 8
nested rectangular grids aligned with North. Figure 2 shows the extent of the model
area for the existing bathymetry used during EP2.3. The following table summarises
the SWAN model grid system.
The SWAN model grid system

Grid origin
Grid Number of grid cells
(m)
spacing
X- Y-
(m) X0 Y0
direction direction
25 176 192 5000 11350
25 208 158 6500 16150
25 200 164 11700 16000
25 132 240 16700 15200
50 108 172 20000 15200
50 112 232 25400 12200
100 95 222 31000 8000
200 231 200 40500 4400
The SWAN model was modified to represent the 1909 bathymetry. The purpose of this
was to test a change in location of the channel alignments across Long Sand. Depths
were based on UK Admiralty Charts for this year (the same bathymetry was used in the
tidal flow model). Figure 3 shows the model depths below OD (m) for this bathymetry.
The SWAN model was also modified to represent the present day bathymetry with the
outer banks and channels increased in depth by 1m (the same modified region was used
in the tidal flow model). The purpose of this was to account for the biasing towards
shallower depths present in the Admiralty Charts as well as the observed fluctuations in
bank heights. Figure 4 shows the model depths below OD(m).
Model runs were carried out for the 0.1 year and 100 year return period wind
conditions. Wind directions between 20 °N and 100 °N were considered.
All model runs were carried out for a MHWS water level at Southend (2.9mOD).

2
The extreme wave conditions presented in this technical note can be used for
assessment of flood risk due to wave overtopping from natural wind waves and defence
loading.
Results from all the SWAN model runs for wind directions between 20 °N and 100 °N
were examined to determine which wind directions gave the worst waves at each of the
analysis points for each return period. The extreme wave conditions corresponding to
the 0.1 and 100 year return are presented in Tables 1 to 7. Each table contains 3
columns of wave conditions. The results in column 1 were derived for the existing
bathymetry during EP2.3 and are presented here for comparative purposes. Column 2
present the equivalent results for the 1909 bathymetry and Column 3 the results for the
present day bathymetry with outer banks and channels increased in depth by 1m.
In addition, the SWAN model runs for the 0.1 year return period wind condition from
the 90°N are presented in Figures 5 to 7 as colour contour plots of significant wave
height.
Generally the results show that there is some sensitivity to wave conditions in the Tidal
Reach T3 due to the outer bank morphology. For example, from a comparison of
Figure 5 and 7, it can be observed that the 1m deepening of the outer banks and
channels has resulted in higher significant wave heights in the middle of the Reach.
From Tables 1 to 7 changes in maximum predicted significant wave heights of up to 4%

have been shown for the 1909 bathymetry compared with the present day bathymetry at
each location. For the present day plus 1m deepening of the outer banks bathymetry
changes in maximum predicted significant wave heights of up to 2% have been
observed compared with the present day bathymetry. For each morphology considered,
the maximum significant wave height for the 100 year return period was 1.23m along
the northern bank (N13) and 1.41m along the southern bank (S15).
It should be noted that waves from other directions will occur at the site, as shown in the
wave climate at each point (EP2.3 Section 3.3.1) and that observed changes to these
wave conditions due the change in bathymetry may be greater. However they will have
smaller associated significant wave heights compared to those presented in Tables 1 to
7.

Extreme wave conditions corresponding to the 0.1 and 100 year return periods were
derived at 7 locations in the Tideway reach T3 for two morphologies:

These extreme wave conditions (Tables 1 to 7) can be used for assessment of flood risk
due to natural wave overtopping and defence loading.

3
Generally the results show that there is some sensitivity to wave conditions in the Tidal
Reach T3 due to the outer bank morphology. For each morphology considered, the
largest significant wave heights predicted were for location S15, with a 100 year return
period significant wave height of 1.41m.
No account was taken of vessel generated waves currently being reviewed under EP2.5.
5. REFERENCES
Reference 1 Thames Estuary 2100, Technical Note EP2.3, Wave climate in outer
estuary, HR Wallingford, July 2005

4
Point 541
UKMO
S15
N13
S14
N12
S13
S12
S11
N11
S10
N10
N9
S9
S8
N8
S7
N7
S5 S6
N6
S4
N5
N4
S3
N3
S2
S1
N2
N1

5
Depth (mOD)
-10.0
50.0
30.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Figure 2 Present day bathymetry of the SWAN model

6
Depth (mOD)
-10.0
50.0
30.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Figure 3 1909 bathymetry of the SWAN model

7
Depth (mOD)
-10.0
50.0
30.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Figure 4 Present day + 1m bathymetry of the SWAN model

8
Significant wave
height (m)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Figure 5 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N – present day bathymetry

9
Significant wave
height (m)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Figure 6 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N – 1909 bathymetry

10
Significant wave
height (m)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Figure 7 Results for 0.1 year wind from 90 °N – present day + 1m bathymetry

11
(years)
Return
Period
(present day) (1909) (present day + 1m)
0.1 0.63 2.11 93 0.64 2.12 92 0.64 2.11 93
100 1.05 2.35 100 1.09 2.41 99 1.05 2.35 100

(years)
Return
Period
0.1 0.62 2.16 106 0.62 2.12 105 0.63 2.16 106
100 1.02 2.45 112 1.04 2.44 110 1.02 2.45 112

(years)
Return
Period
0.1 0.81 2.49 112 0.81 2.50 113 0.82 2.51 113
100 1.23 2.95 124 1.23 2.97 125 1.23 2.97 124

(years)
Return
Period
0.1 0.51 1.85 39 0.52 1.89 40 0.51 1.86 39
100 0.96 2.17 26 0.99 2.21 27 0.96 2.17 26

(years)
Return
Period
0.1 0.61 1.97 56 0.63 2.00 57 0.61 1.98 56
100 1.01 2.20 39 1.04 2.23 41 1.00 2.20 39
(years)
Return
Period
0.1 0.72 2.25 50 0.71 2.22 50 0.72 2.26 50
100 1.16 2.77 36 1.13 2.78 35 1.16 2.80 36

12
(years)
Return
Period
0.1 0.90 2.58 63 0.89 2.56 63 0.92 2.62 62
100 1.41 3.15 41 1.41 3.04 41 1.41 3.19 40

13
14
Thames Estuary 2100
Estuary
Vessel generated wave conditions
Status:
Date:
07/10/2005
DOCUMENT INFORMATION
Project Thames Estuary 2100
Wave conditions in the Thames Estuary – Vessel genearated
Report title wave conditions
Client Environment Agency
Client Representative Bill Donovan
Project No. TE2100 EP2 – DTR3746
Report No. Technical Note EP2.5
Doc. ref. TE2100-EP2.5-vessel generated wave conditions.doc
Project Manager Graham Siggers
Project Director Jane Smallman
DOCUMENT HISTORY
Date Release Prepared Approved Authorised Notes
10/10/05 0.0 rma gbs jvs
Prepared
Approved
Authorised
©
This report is a contribution to research generally and it would be imprudent for third parties to rely on it in
specific applications without first checking its suitability. Various sections of this report rely on data supplied by or
drawn from third party sources. HR Wallingford accepts no liability for loss or damage suffered by the client or
third parties as a result of errors or inaccuracies in such third party data. HR Wallingford will only accept
responsibility for the use of its material in specific projects where it has been engaged to advise upon a specific
commission and given the opportunity to express a view on the reliability of the material for the particular
applications.
Environment Agency
Thames Estuary 2100

Wave conditions in the Thames Estuary
Vessel generated wave conditions
October 2005
TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2.5 – VESSEL GENERATED WAVE CONDITIONS
- ii -
SUMMARY
defence loading. This technical note describes the assessment of the vessel generated
wave conditions in the Thames Estuary between The Thames Barrier and Southend.
A survey of vessel motions in the estuary was carried out between Wednesday 22 June
and Friday 24 June 2005. Predictions of vessel generated wave conditions have been
made based on the results of that survey. A comparison of the results against earlier
predictions of the naturally occurring wave climate is also presented.
Average and upper bound vessel generated wave climates at the shoreline have been
predicted at 5 locations between Crayford Ness and Southend using Seelig and
Kriebel’s (2001) method. These have been compared against the naturally occurring
wave climate. Generally, the average vessel-generated waves are below the the natural
levels of wave disturbance; though it should be recognised that there is potential for
large vessel-generated waves to occur occasionally which can be well in excess of
natural wave heights.

- iii -
- iv -
CONTENTS
SUMMARY iii
1. Introduction 1
2. Vessel traffic survey 1

2.1 Methodology 1
2.2 Anecdotal information 2
2.3 Results 2
3. Assessment of vessel generated waves 3

3.1 Vessel generated waves 3
3.2 Comparison to natural wave climate 4
5. References 6
Figures
Figure 1 Location of vessel traffic survey transects 7
Figure 3 Vessel generated waves in the estuary for different vessel classes 9
Figure 4 Natural and vessel-generated waves at Crayford Ness 10
Figure 5 Natural and vessel-generated waves at Dartford Bridge 11
Figure 6 Natural and vessel-generated waves at Gravesend 12
Figure 7 Natural and vessel-generated waves at Lower Hope Point 13
Figure 8 Natural and vessel-generated waves at Southend 14
Tables
Table 1 Vessel numbers on 22 June 2005 15
Table 4 Annualised average vessel numbers 18

-v-
- vi -
1. INTRODUCTION
Vessels travelling along the Thames Estuary will generate wake or wash. The height of
the waves at the shore will depend on a number of factors including the vessel’s, speed,
hull-shape and distance from the shore.
To assess the effect of vessel movements on wave conditions at the shoreline, survey of
vessel movements has been out over three days at the Port of London Authority (PLA)
Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) Centre.
Based on the results of the Vessel Traffic Survey, representative wave heights at the
shoreline have been predicted for various classes of vessels at a number of locations.
This report presents the results of the traffic survey and wave predictions and compares
the vessel-generated wave conditions with the naturally occurring wave climate.
2. VESSEL TRAFFIC SURVEY

2.1 Methodology
A vessel traffic survey was carried out over three days between Wednesday 22 June and
Friday 24 June 2005. Mr Matthew Wood of HR Wallingford monitored vessels passing
a number of estuary transects, via the PLA radars at the Lower Thames VTS Centre.
Seven transects were monitored (except on the 22, when Crayford Ness and Dartford
Bridge were not included). The transect locations are shown in Figure 1. The Surveys
were carried out from approx. 3hrs before High Water to approx 3hrs after High Water
each day. The exact timings of the survey are shown in the table below.
Survey times and tidal conditions at Tilbury/Gravesend:

Survey times High water tidal range (m)
22/06/2005 11:11 – 17:24 (6hrs 13mins) 13:58 5.4
23/06/2005 11:45 – 17:45 (6hrs) 14:46 5.65
24/06/2005 10:05 – 17:10 (7hrs 5mins) 15:34 5.75
Data was collected using a combination of the PLA radars, Polaris vessel database,
anecdotal information provided by the First Class Pilots on duty in the PLA control
room, and information obtained from the Fairplay Vessel Database.
Vessels with overall length (LOA) less than 20m are not required to submit their details
to PLA for inclusion in the Polaris system. Therefore, for unlisted vessels, assumptions
have been made regarding the vessel type, based on information provided by PLA staff
in the VTS control room and using web searches on the vessel names. After all
available sources of information were exhausted, vessels with no data were assumed to
be yachts (or motor yachts) with average dimensions:
• LOA: 10m
• Beam: 3m

-1-
• Draft: 0.75m
All vessel speeds quoted are the speeds over ground (i.e. the tidal stream is not taken
into account). For reference, the TELEMAC flow model predicts the following
maximum current speeds at the transect locations on a mean spring tide:
Transect Max current speed (m/s)

Thames Barrier 1.48
Cross Ness 0.72
Crayford Ness 1.26
Dartford 1.70
Gravesend 1.41
Lower Hope Point 0.93
Southend 1.59
2.2 Anecdotal information
During the course of the vessel traffic survey, discussions were held with PLA Pilots on
duty in the control room who reported the following general trends in vessel traffic on
the estuary:
• Approximately 40 commercial vessels dealt with in/out per day (i.e. not
including pleasure boats/tugs etc).
• Approximately 28,000 vessels per year into the Thames, plus another 5-6,000
going into the Medway.
• Highest Traffic Volumes occur March to November; around Christmas and New
Year it is less busy.
• Traffic volume on 22/06/05 and 23/06/05 was considered typical for this time of
year.
• No day/night variation in traffic volume, which depends on the tide
• In the upper reaches, traffic tends to be lighter around LW, with only smaller
vessels moving.
• The outer estuary can become busy around LW as the larger vessels prepare to
come in.
• The larger Container vessels typically allow about 4.5 - 5hrs to travel from
Ramsgate and arrive at the container terminals west of Gravesend at HW.
• Fridays tend to have heavier yacht traffic as people go out for recreational
sailing at weekends.
2.3 Results
A total of 462 vessels were observed passing the transect lines over the three days of the
survey. The number of vessels passing each transect on each day are presented in
Tables 1 – 3. The coding used to represent the different classes of vessel is described in
the table below.

-2-
Code Description
BA Barges
BU Bulk Carriers
CC Container Ships (fully cellular)
DR Dredgers
GC General Cargo
PC Pallet Carriers
PF Passenger Ships and Ferries
RE Research vessels
RO Ro/Ro
SC Specialised Cargo, incl. Cement, Vehicle Carriers, Live stock and Barge carriers
TA Tankers
TG Tugs
YT Yachts
The heaviest traffic occurred on Thursday 23 June 2005 (Table 2) when a total of 185
vessels were observed. Most of the vessels on this day were General Cargo ships,
which was true of all the survey days. Overall this class of vessel accounts for 22% of
the vessels surveyed.
The lowest speed recorded was an unclassified vessel, probably a yacht, travelling at
just 1.7 knots. The fastest recorded vessel speed was 29.7 knots for also an unclassified
vessel, possibly a recreational speedboat. More normal speeds for goods carriers, etc
was around 10 knots.
Between the Thames Barrier and Dartford, all vessels travelled between 100 and 500m
from the shore. From Gravesend to Southend, as the estuary widens, the spread of
distances from the shore becomes wider with the larger vessel moving further from the
shore and a few vessel coming to less than 100m from shore.
Between Dartford Bridge and Gravesend, there is a certain amount of small vessel
activity, with vessels appearing on radar for very short intervals as they move across the
river from one bank to the other. This occurred typically 5-6 times per hour. The
average speed for these vessels was between 5 and 11 kts. As these vessels did not pass
any of the defined survey transects they have not been included in the vessel counts
presented in this report.
Due to radar shadow, it can be difficult to pick up vessels passing the Thames Barrier.
It is possible that there may be some underestimate of certain classes of vessel (e.g.
pleasure cruisers) passing this point.
3. ASSESSMENT OF VESSEL GENERATED WAVES
3.1 Vessel generated waves

Ships in motion generate transverse and diverging wave components. The interference
between these two waves creates a cusp locus or wake, as shown below.

-3-
Vessel-generated wave pattern
The vessel-generated wave heights at the shoreline at each transect were predicted using
the method developed by Seelig & Kreibel (2001) in Reference 3 which provides
empirical relationships for vessel-generated wave conditions based on both model and
prototype measurements for various different types of vessel. This gives the height of
the largest waves in the incident wave train at the shoreline.
Input parameters for Seelig and Kriebel’s model, representing the average and worst-
case for each class of vessel, were obtained from the survey results. The resulting
average and maximum wave heights at the shoreline are presented in Figure 3. Average
waves for all vessel classes are small, in the range H = 0.04 – 0.15m. The largest
average wave height predicted is for yachts. This is counter–intuitive, but is probably
the combined result of including all unknown vessels in this class and a tendency for
these vessels to travel close to the shoreline. There is much greater variability in the
maximum wave height. This is to be expected, since a vessel passing at unusually high
speed or unusually close to the shore can be expected to produce a substantially larger
wave than the average. The largest maximum wave height predicted is Hs = 1.17m,
caused by tugs.
3.2 Comparison to natural wave climate
In order to put the results into context, a comparison has been made to the naturally
occurring wave conditions. Natural wave climates have been predicted at various

-4-
locations along the estuary, shown in Figure 2. The derivation of these naturally
occurring wave climates is discussed in detail in References 1 and 2.
Comparing Figures 1 and 2, it can be seen that suitable prediction points exist for
comparisons to the results of the survey transects at Crayford Ness, Dartford Bridge,
Gravesend, Lower Hope Point and Southend.
Vessel-generated waves incident on the shoreline will take the form of a number of
small waves followed by a large peak wave (the wave height predicted by Seelig and
Kriebel’s method) followed by a series of waves diminishing in height. For the
purposes of this study it has been conservatively assumed that the predicted average
vessel waves last for 5 minutes on every vessel passage. To assess the sensitivity to the
occurrence of maximum wave height, the probability of occurrence of these events has
been calculated based another conservative assumption that the maximum wave height
is produced by 1 in every 10 vessels.
Figures 4 – 8 present comparisons of the vessel-generated waves against the locally

generated waves at the closest prediction points on the North and South banks of the
estuary. The figures show the wave height plotted against probability of exceedence.
The average wave heights due to vessel generated waves are generally lower than the
naturally occurring wave heights with the same probability of occurrence. However, at
Gravesend they are higher than the natural waves occurring on the South bank. At
Crayford Ness, the larger vessel waves become more important than the less frequently
occurring natural waves. This is likely to be increasingly true in the upper reaches of
the river as the naturally occurring waves become smaller.
The maximum waves can be thought of as an upper bound to the likely vessel-generated
wave disturbance. At Southend, where the naturally occurring waves are largest the
maximum predicted vessel-generated waves are of similar order to the naturally
occurring waves with the same probability of occurrence. However, moving up the
estuary, the natural wave heights diminish and the maximum predicted vessel-generated
waves rapidly become more important.

Average vessel generated waves at the shoreline in the Thames Estuary are predicted to
be small (H = 0.04 - 0.15m). In the outer estuary, they are much smaller than the
naturally occurring wave with the same probability of occurrence, while in the inner
estuary (upstream of Gravesend) they become increasingly important.
Due to the variability in vessel behaviour, substantially larger than average waves can
sometimes be generated. Worst-case wave heights of up to H =1.17m have been
predicted. Based on fairly conservative assumptions it is shown that the maximum
vessel-generated wave conditions could exceed naturally occurring wave heights with
the same proability of occurence, though it should be remembered that the duration of
any given event would be brief.

-5-
5. REFERENCES
Reference 1 Thames Estuary 2100, Technical Note EP2.2, Wave climate in inner
Reference 2 Thames Estuary 2100, Technical Note EP2.3, Wave climate in outer
Reference 3 Seelig W and Kriebel D, December 2001, Ship generated waves, Naval
Facilities Engineering Service Center, Technical Report TR-6022-OCN.

-6-
185000
Figure 1
2
182500
1 6
180000 3
177500 4
5 7
175000
540000 550000 560000 570000 580000
1. Thames Barrier
2. Cross Ness
-7-
3. Crayford Ness
4. Dartford Bridge
5. Gravesend/Tilbury
6. Lower Hope Point
7. Southend-on-Sea
Location of vessel traffic survey transects

Point 541
UKMO
S15
N13
S14
N12
S13
S12
S11
N11
S10
N10
N9
S9
S8
N8
S7
N7
S5 S6
N6
S4
N5
N4
S3
N3
S2
S1
N2
N1

-8-
Maximum
Average
Maximum
Average
YT
TG
Vessel generated wave heights at shoreline
TA
SC
RO
PF RE
Vessel Type
GC PC
CC DR
BU
BA
0
0.2
0.4
Hs (m) 0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Figure 3 Vessel generated waves in the estuary for different vessel classes
-9-
Comparison of natural and vessel-generated waves at Crayford Ness
Figure 4
1.4
1.2
0.8
- 10 -
Hs (m)
0.6
0.4
0.2
Natural and vessel-generated waves at Crayford Ness

0

0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Probability of exceedence
N2 S1 Average vessel wave Maximum vessel wave

Comparison of natural and vessel-generated waves at Dartford Bridge
Figure 5
1.4
1.2
0.8
- 11 -
Hs (m)
0.6
0.4
0.2
Natural and vessel-generated waves at Dartford Bridge

0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1

Comparison of natural and vessel-generated waves at Gravesend
Figure 6
1.4
1.2
0.8
- 12 -
Hs (m)
0.6
0.4
0.2
Natural and vessel-generated waves at Gravesend

0

0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1

Comparison of natural and vessel-generated waves at Lower Hope Point
Figure 7
1.4
1.2
0.8
- 13 -
Hs (m)
0.6
0.4
0.2

0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Natural and vessel-generated waves at Lower Hope Point


Comparison of natural and vessel-generated waves at Southend
Figure 8
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
- 14 -
Hs (m)
0.6
0.4
0.2
Natural and vessel-generated waves at Southend

0

0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
S15 Average vessel wave Maximum vessel wave

Table 1 Vessel numbers on 22 June 2005
Vessel Number of vessels crossing each transect
type Thames Barrier Cross Ness Crayford Ness Dartford Bridge Gravesend Lower Hope Southend
Point
BA - - - - - 1 2
BU - - - - 1 - -
CC - - - - 5 4 3
DR 1 1 - - 6 2 1
GC 6 5 - - 11 7 6
PC - - - - - - -
PF 4 - - - - - -
RE - - - - 1 1 1
RO - - - - 3 3 6
SC - - - - - - -
- 15 -
TA - - - - 3 3 3
TG 3 2 - - 2 1 1
YT 1 1 - - 10 3 -
total 15 9 - - 42 25 23

type Lower Hope
Thames Barrier Cross Ness Crayford Ness Dartford Bridge Gravesend Point Southend
BA 2 - - - - - -
BU - - - - - - -
CC - - - - 3 2 2
DR - - - - 4 1 1
GC 5 6 6 5 7 6 5
PC - 1 1 1 1 1 1
PF 9 - - - 1 1 1
RE - - - - - - -
RO - - 4 4 5 4 3
SC - 2 - - - - -
- 16 -
TA 1 - 1 - 1 1 4
TG 5 3 2 2 7 1 1
YT 1 1 14 11 13 19 2
total 23 13 28 23 42 36 20

type Lower Hope
Thames Barrier Cross Ness Crayford Ness Dartford Bridge Gravesend Point Southend
BA - - - 1 - - -
BU - - - - - - -
CC - - - - - - 1
DR - - 2 2 3 3 5
GC 2 2 1 3 8 6 5
PC 1 1 1 1 - - -
PF 1 - - - - - -
RE - - - - - - -
RO - - 1 3 8 8 8
SC - - - - - - -
- 17 -
TA - - 2 4 1 1 2
TG 1 1 3 4 2 1 -
YT - - 10 11 24 18 1
total 5 4 20 29 46 37 22

Table 4 Annualised average vessel numbers
type
Thames Barrier Cross Ness Crayford Ness Dartford Bridge Gravesend Lower Hope Point Southend
BA 973 - - 618 - 470 939
BU - - - - 470 - -
CC - - - - 3809 2852 2795
DR 470 470 1237 1237 6002 2663 3018
GC 6076 6093 4998 5505 11871 8681 7313
PC 412 899 1348 1348 487 487 487
PF 6671 - - - 487 487 487
RE - - - - 470 470 470
RO - - 3538 4775 7140 6654 7576
SC - 973 - - - - -
- 18 -
TA 487 - 1967 2473 2308 2308 4180
TG 4255 2812 3315 3933 5171 1369 956
YT 956 956 16404 14832 20917 18076 1386
total 20300 12203 32807 34722 59130 44515 29606

TE2100 P132 EP02 Wave Conditions

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Thames Estuary 2100

EA Study Lead: Bill Donovan

Consultants: HR Wallingford Ltd

Thames Estuary 2100

EP2.1 Collation, purchase and analysis of wind and wave data

TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2 – WAVE STUDIES

2. Collation, purchase and analysis of wind and wave data (EP2.1,

3. Wave climates and extremes in the Inner Thames Estuary

4. Wave climates and extremes in the Outer Thames Estuary

5. Sensitivity of wave conditions to water levels and tidal currents

6. Sensitivity of wave conditions to changes in the Outer Estuary

7. Review of vessel generated waves (Technical Note EP2.5) 5

TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2 – WAVE STUDIES

1.1 The EP2 wave studies

EP2.1 Collation, purchase and analysis of wind and wave data

1.2 Structure of this report

2. COLLATION, PURCHASE AND ANALYSIS OF WIND AND

2.1 Available wind data

• measured winds at Dartford

TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2 – WAVE STUDIES

One hour duration Shoeburyness extreme windspeeds (m/s)

Return NE Sector SE Sector SW Sector NW Sector All sectors

2.3 Available measured wave data

3. WAVE CLIMATES AND EXTREMES IN THE INNER THAMES

• Annually averaged wave climates

TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2 – WAVE STUDIES

3.2 Extreme wave conditions

4. WAVE CLIMATES AND EXTREMES IN THE OUTER THAMES

• Offshore waves in the southern North Sea

Wave conditions at 7 locations, (N11-N13 and S12-S15 Figure 1) were derived. At

• Annually averaged wave climates

4.2 Extreme wave conditions in the Outer Estuary

5. SENSITIVITY OF WAVE CONDITIONS TO WATER LEVELS

TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2 – WAVE STUDIES

6. SENSITIVITY OF WAVE CONDITIONS TO CHANGES IN THE

• The bathymetry in 1909

7. REVIEW OF VESSEL GENERATED WAVES (TECHNICAL

TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2 – WAVE STUDIES

Figure 1 Location of wave prediction points

TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2 – WAVE STUDIES

TE2100 – TECHNICAL NOTE EP2 – WAVE STUDIES

Wave climates and extremes in the Inner

EA Study Lead: Bill Donovan

Consultants: HR Wallingford Ltd

Thames Estuary 2100

4. Conclusions and Recommendations 5

Table 1a Annual nearshore wave climate – position N1 7

• Annually averaged wave climates

• measured winds at Dartford

The data set covered the following periods:

• Early Shoeburyness 1970-1983

Therefore the mark-up factors used were:

• 10% increase for wind direction bands 20°N to 190°N

One hour duration Shoeburyness extreme windspeeds (m/s)

Return NE Sector SE Sector SW Sector NW Sector All sectors

3.1 HINDWAVE wind wave prediction model

The HINDWAVE model was developed at HR Wallingford to hindcast wave conditions

3.2 Discussion of results

3.2.1 Annual wave climates

H1 To H2 P(H>H1) Wave direction in degrees North

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330

3.2.2 Extreme wave conditions

H1 To H2 P(H>H1) Wave direction in degrees North

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330