A closer look into Crimes against Women in India

Debarshi Dey (deydebarshi@gmail.com)

Ph.D. in Statistics, University of California, Riverside.

1. Introduction
With the recent “Nirbhaya” incidence of gang-rape in the capital city of the Nation, the sleeping conscience of the nation as it were was awakened and there
was an intense demand for justice for women and a strong sentiment against crimes committed against women. In this back-drop, questions like “ Is our
country now more unsafe for women than before?” , “How many folds have the crimes against women increased in our country”, or perhaps, “The
sensationalism on crimes against women are mostly a product of media hype”, clouds our mind. Where do we get these answers?

The place to start this investigation is the official statistics that is published by the National Crime Records Bureau of India. There is no doubt that the actual
number of crimes committed is much more than the reported number of crimes. This is even truer for crimes committed against women, which often goes
unreported because of social and other reasons. But then the reported numbers are the only credible statistics which can give us an indication of what is the
trend of the over-all crime situation in the country, as well as crimes against women.

The first thing that stands out when we look at records of crimes against women over the years is the sheer increase in numbers. But just as we cannot
compare the absolute number of crimes committed in Goa with that of U.P. without accounting for the difference in population, similarly it would be
statistically naïve to compare the crime situation in India of 1998 with that of 2011, without accounting for the increase in population. Hence, to really
understand how the rate of crimes has changed over the years, the numbers has to be adjusted for population.

Crimes against women can be divided into different categories. Rape, Molestation, Sexual harassment, Domestic Violence, Dowry Deaths, Immoral
trafficking. What is the comparative rate of increase of these different categories of crimes over the years? Are there specific kinds of crimes that are getting
reported more than the others?

And lastly, Statistical analysis is a powerful tool to discover if there is any anomaly in the data. Is a particular kind of crime showing a markedly different
trend compared to all other kinds of crimes? If it is so, then there is reason to suspect that data and it calls for a closer look and a special investigation. Do we
see any such thing in the crime statistics provided by the Crime Bureau?

1
 2. Crime Rates adjusted by Population
While considering crimes against women, it is pertinent we also consider the total number of crimes and the total population of the country.

Crime against women is divided into different categories: rape, Molestation, Dowry Deaths, Cruelty by husband and in-laws (498a), Sexual harassment, etc.

We collect this information for every year from 1998 to 2011.

Matrimonial cases include cases of Dowry Deaths, cases related to dowry prohibition Act and 498A cases.

Miscellaneous crimes are cases of Sati, Importation of girls and indecent representation.

A. Total number of crimes

Year 1998 2001 2004 2008 2011
Population 984003683 1029991000 1065071000 1147996000 1189173000
Total Crimes 1778815 1769308 1832015 2093379 2325575
Crimes against Women 131475 143795 154333 195856 228650
498a 41376 49170 58121 81344 99135
Molestation 30959 34124 34567 40413 42968
Kidnapping 16351 14645 15578 22939 35565
Rape 15151 16075 18233 21467 24206
Sexual Harassment 8054 9746 10001 12214 8570
Dowry Deaths 6975 6851 7026 8172 8618
Dowry Prohibition 3578 3222 3592 5555 6619
Immoral Trafficking 8695 8796 5748 2659 2435
Miscellaneous 336 1166 1467 1093 534
Table 1. Total number of crimes
In the period 1998 to 2011, the population of India increased from 98.4 crores to almost 119 crores. That’s about a 21% increase.

Total number of ALL crimes increased from about 1.8 crores to 2.33 crores in the same period (1998-2011). That’s a 30 % increase. Thus we see that the rate
of growth in crimes is a little ahead of the rate of growth in population.

2
We see that in 1998 the total number of crimes recorded against women is 1.31 lakhs. That is, a proportion of about 7% of all crimes committed are crimes
committed especially against women. In 2011 this number is 2.29 lakhs. That is, a proportion of almost 10% of all crimes committed are crimes committed
especially against women.

Thus we see that the proportion of crimes against women with respect to all crimes has gone up from 7% to 10%.

Is there a general increase in crimes against women or are their specific crimes against women that are on the rise?

Of all crimes committed against women, the biggest share is that of 498A cases, followed by molestation, kidnapping and rape, in that order.

To really see if the number of crimes in our country is on the rise, we need to adjust the number of crimes with that of increase in population.

Thus, the change in number of crimes PER 1 lakh people over the years (1998-2011) will give us a true indication of the rate of increase of crimes.

B. Number of Crimes per Lakh of people

Year 1998 2001 2004 2008 2011
Total Crimes 180.77 171.77 172.01 182.35 195.56
Crimes against Women 13.36 13.96 14.49 17.06 19.23
CAW without 498a 9.16 9.19 9.03 9.98 10.89
Matrimonial Crimes 5.28 5.75 6.45 8.28 9.62
Molestation 3.15 3.31 3.25 3.52 3.61
Rape 1.54 1.56 1.71 1.87 2.03
Kidnapping 1.66 1.42 1.46 2.00 2.99
Sexual Harassment 0.82 0.95 0.94 1.06 0.72
Immoral Trafficking 0.88 0.85 0.54 0.23 0.21
TABLE 2. Number of crimes per Lakh people

We see that the total number of crimes per lakh people was about 181 in 1998, and is about 196 in 2011. That is, there has been an ACTUAL increase in total
number of crimes of about 8.3% from 1998 to 2011. But we also notice that the total number of crimes per lakh actually went down during the period 2001-
2004.

In 1998 about 13.4 crimes were committed against women per lakh people. This number stands at 19.2 in 2011. Thus we see that about 6 more crimes
against women per lakh people are being committed in 2011 compared to 1998.

3
We also notice that of all crimes against women consisting of Rape, Molestation, Sexual harassment, kidnapping, immoral trafficking, matrimonial cases, etc.,
all except matrimonial crimes (498a, dowry deaths, other dowry related crimes) show only little change in their adjusted numbers during this period.

In 1998 there were 1.54 rapes recorded per lakh people. In 2011 this was about 2 rapes per lakh people.

In 1998 there were 0.82 cases of sexual harassment per lakh people. In 2011 this was 0.72. This went up slightly to about 1 during the 2001-2004 period.

Similarly number of molestations per lakh people remains more or less stationary in the period 1998-2011 at little over 3.

The number of cases of immoral trafficking actually went down from 0.88 per lakh people in 1998 to 0.21 per lakh in 2011.

The only EXCEPTION is matrimonial cases, which almost doubles from about 5 per lakh in 1998 to almost 10 per lakh in 2011.

The case of matrimonial crimes against women stands out among all other kinds of crimes against women and calls for a closer look.

Matrimonial crimes are cases of dowry deaths, other dowry related crimes and cases of 498a (domestic violence committed by husband and in-laws)

Year 1998 2001 2004 2008 2011

498a 4.2 4.77 5.46 7.09 8.34
Dowry Deaths 0.71 0.67 0.66 0.71 0.72
Dowry Prohibition 0.36 0.31 0.34 0.58 0.56
TABLE 3. Number of matrimonial crimes against women per Lakh people
We see that the number of deaths related to dowry has remained almost the same at 0.72 per lakh of people.

Other crimes related to dowry have also only marginally increased from 0.36 per lakh to 0.56 per lakh.

But crimes related to 498a had a dramatic increase from 4.2 to per lakh to about 8.34 per lakh. This is a significant increase which is quite out of line from all
other kind of crimes committed against women.

If we DISREGARD the 498a crimes against women we see that, the other crimes against women have slightly increased from around 9.2 per lakh people to
10.9 crimes per lakh people.

4
 Figure 1. Number of different kind crimes against women per lakh people
Here we see that the number of 498a cases shows a dramatic increase over the years, while the number of molestation, rape and sexual harassment remains
more or less unchanged from 1998 to 2011. Kidnapping remains unchanged in the period 1998-2005, while it increases after 2005.

We also see here that the number of 498a cases is considerably more than the other crimes committed against women.

5
 Figure 2. Number of Crimes against women per lakh people with and without 498A cases.
Here we see that if we disregard the 498a cases, then there is little increase in number of crimes against women per lakh people in the period 1998-2011.

We also see that the 498a cases inflates the number of crimes against women considerably.

6
 Figure 3. Number of Matrimonial Crimes against women per lakh people
Here we see that of all matrimonial cases, the number of cases of dowry deaths and cases related to dowry prohibition remains unchanged over the years. The
number of such cases is also quite small.

But the number of 498a cases shows a significant increase over the years from 4 such cases per lakh to more than 8 such cases per lakh from 1998 to 2011.

Almost all the matrimonial cases are contributed by 498a cases.

7
 3. Trend Analysis of Different Categories of Crimes (Unadjusted for population increase)
To have a better understanding how the rate of crimes have increased over the years- we consider the base year as 1998 and see if there were 100 crimes of
a particular kind committed in 1998, how has that number changed over the years, and where does it stand in 2011?

C. Rate of Crimes with Base year 1998:

Year 1998 2001 2004 2008 2011
Population 100 104.67 108.24 116.67 120.85
Total Crimes 100 99.47 102.99 117.68 130.74
Crimes against 100 109.37 117.39 148.97 173.91
Women
Crime against women 100 105.02 106.79 127.10 143.74
without 498A
498a 100 118.84 140.47 196.60 239.60
Dowry Prohibition 100 90.05 100.39 155.25 184.99
Dowry Deaths 100 98.22 100.73 117.16 123.56
Molestation 100 110.22 111.65 130.54 138.79
Rape 100 106.1 120.34 141.69 159.77
Kidnapping 100 89.57 95.27 140.29 217.51
Sexual Harassment 100 121.01 124.17 151.65 106.41
Immoral Trafficking 100 101.16 66.11 30.58 28
TABLE 4. Rate of crimes with base year 1998
We see that if there have been a 21% increase in the population from 1998 to 2011, and the rate of increase has almost remained the same over the years at
about 1.6%

The total crimes have increased by 31% from 1998 and 2011. But we also see that during the period 1998 – 2004, the total number of crimes did not show
much increase, while after 2004, there has been quite a rise in the total number of crimes.The number of crimes against women has also shown a
considerable increase of about 74% between 1998 and 2011. But if we do not consider the 498a cases, the number of crimes against women shows an
increase of 44% from 1998 to 2011. The number of rape shows a 60% increase from 1998 to 2011, but we see only a 6 % increase in sexual harassment.
Molestation sees about a 40% increase in the given period.But as we have seen the biggest increase has been that of 498A cases- a whopping increase of
about 140% from 1998 to 2011! Kidnapping also shows a increase of 117% in the given period.

8
 Figure 4. Trend of rate of increase in crimes
Here we see that the rate of increase of all crimes is less than the rate of increase of population during 1998-2008. Only after 2008, is there a jump in the rate of
increase in crimes.

The rate of increase in crime against women is significantly higher than the rate of increase in all crimes.

However, if we disregard the 498a cases, then the trend of rate of increase in all crimes and rate of increase in crime against women are quite similar.

9
 Figure 5. Trend of rate of change in different crimes against women
Here we see that the rate of increase in 498a cases is much more than the rate of increase in other crimes against women in 1998 to 2011.

10
 Figure 6. Trend of rate of change in matrimonial crimes against women
Of all matrimonial cases, the rate of increase in 498a cases is much more than the rate of increase in dowry deaths or cases related to dowry prohibition.

11
 4. Share of Different categories of crimes against women
To understand what kind of crimes are committed against women and if the nature of crimes against women is changing over the years, it would be
interesting to see what is the share of the different kind of crimes compared to all the crimes committed against women over the years.

Here we see what is the share of the different crimes committed against women as a proportion (%) to the total number of crimes committed against
women.

C. NUMBER OF PARTICULAR CRIMES AS A PROPORTION (%) TO TOTAL NUMBER OF CRIMES

Year 1998 2001 2004 2008 2011
498a 31.47 34.19 37.66 41.53 43.36
Dowry Deaths 5.31 4.76 4.55 4.17 3.77
Dowry Prohibition 2.72 2.24 2.33 2.84 2.90
Rape 11.52 11.17 11.81 10.96 10.59
Molestations 23.55 23.73 22.40 20.63 18.79
Sexual Harassment 6.13 6.77 6.48 6.24 3.75
Immoral Traffic 6.61 6.11 3.72 1.35 1.06
Kidnapping 12.44 10.19 10.09 11.71 15.55
TABLE 5. Share of different kind of crimes against women over the years.

We see that from 1998 to 2011, the nature of crimes committed against women has been surely but steadily changing.

While the share of rapes, molestations, sexual harassment, immoral traffic and dowry deaths in the total number of crimes against women has gone down
from 1998 to 2011 in varying proportions, the number of kidnapping and dowry related crimes have slightly increased their respective shares between 1998
to 2011.

But the most dramatic change has been that of 498a cases. While in 1998, 498a cases had a 31% share of all crimes committed against women, this number
has steadily increased over the years and in 2011 it has a share of more than 43% of all crimes committed against women.

That is a little less than HALF of ALL crimes committed against women are by their husband and in-laws in 2011. This was less than one-third in 1998.

12
 Figure 7. Share of different kind of crimes against women in 1998
In 1998, less than one-third of all crimes against women are 498a cases. Almost a quarter of such crimes, are those of molestation. Share of rapes in all crimes
against women is 11.5% .

13
Figure 8. Share of different kind of crimes against women in 2001
14
Figure 9. Share of different kind of crimes against women in 2004

15
Figure 10. Share of different kind of crimes against women in 2008

16
 Figure 11. Share of different kind of crimes against women in 2011
More than 43 % of all crimes committed against women in 2011 are those of 498a. Share of Molestation and rape crimes have gone down from 24% in 1998 to
18.8 % in 2011, and from 11.5% in 1998 to 10.6% 2011, respectively. Share of Dowry deaths has also gone down from 5.3% in 1998 to 3.7% in 2011.

17
 5. CONCLUSIONS

1. The rate of increase in crimes (31%) is little more than the rate of increase in population (21%) in the period 1998-2011.

2. The number of crimes against women as a proportion to all crimes committed has increased from 7% in 1998 to more than 10% in 2011.

3. The majority of crimes against women are matrimonial crimes.

4. Of all matrimonial crimes, cases related to 498a (cruelty by husband and in-laws) has shown an overwhelming rise in the period 1998 to 2011. There has
been little or no change in dowry deaths or other cases related to dowry prohibition during 1998-2011 adjusted by increase in population.

5. The number of crimes against women concerning rape, molestation, sexual harassment has increased over the years from 1998 to 2011. But these
numbers when adjusted to the corresponding increase in population do not show a significant increase.

6. The crimes related to immoral trafficking has actually gone down considerably in the period 1998-2011.

7. The trend of rate of increase in crimes against women when 498a cases are disregarded is very similar to the trend of rate of increase in total number of
crimes. But when 498a cases are included, the rate of increase in crimes against women is significantly more than the trend of rate of increase in total
number of crimes.

8. The nature of crimes against women has also changed considerably in 1998 to 2011. While the share of rapes, molestations, sexual harassment, immoral
traffic and dowry deaths in the total number of crimes against women has gone down from 1998 to 2011 in varying proportions, the share of 498a cases have
significantly gone up from 31% to more than 43%.

9. In 2011, of all crimes committed against women a little less than half of them are committed by their husbands and in-laws. This was less than one-thirds
in 1998.

18
References:
1. http://ncrb.nic.in/ciiprevious/data/cd-CII2002/cii-2002/C-CHAP5.htm

2. http://ncrb.nic.in/ciiprevious/data/cd-CII2003/cii-2003/CHAP5.pdf

3. http://ncrb.nic.in/ciiprevious/data/cd-CII2004/cii-2004/CHAP5.pdf

4. http://ncrb.nic.in/ciiprevious/data/cd-CII2005/cii-2005/CHAP5.pdf

5. http://ncrb.nic.in/ciiprevious/data/cd-CII2006/cii-2006/CHAP5.pdf

6. http://ncrb.nic.in/cii2007/cii-2007/CHAP5.pdf

7. http://ncrb.nic.in/cii2008/cii-2008/Chapter%205.pdf

8. http://ncrb.nic.in/CII%202009/cii-2009/Chapter%205.pdf

9. http://ncrb.nic.in/cii2010/cii-2010/Chapter%205.pdf

10. http://ncrb.nic.in/CD-CII2011/cii-2011/Chapter%205.pdf

11. http://www.populstat.info/Asia/indiac.htm

12. http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=21&c=in&l=en

19