2017 IEEE PES-IAS PowerAfrica
Integration of Solar Energy into the Zambia Power
Grid Considering Ramp Rate Constraints
B.Kumwenda, W.Mwaku, D.Mulongoti
Electrical Dept. School of Engineering
Copperbelt University
Kitwe, Zambia
buchizya.kumwenda@cbu.ac.zm
david.mulongoti@cbu.ac.zm
webby.mwaku@cbu.ac.zm
Abstract— Zambia’s national power grid is facing a
constraint in meeting the present and expected future
demand. Solar photovoltaic (PV) power is a promising
option for large-scale renewable energy integration in
Zambia as there is abundant insolation, averaging
5.5kWh/m2/day. However, large-scale integration of solar
will increase the variability and uncertainty in the power
supply, which can result in blackouts. This research
investigates the maximum PV capacity that can be
integrated into the existing Zambia grid while considering
the ramp rate constraints of the existing generators. An
optimal power flow using MATPOWER version 5.1 was
performed using a transmission system model of the grid.
The simulation used actual hourly load, generation and
solar irradiance for a period of 1632 hours.
Keywords - Solar-energy; grid-integration; grid-stability;
energy-storage; ramp-rate; Zambia.
I. INTRODUCTION
The Zambian economy has been rising at an average rate of
5% per annum with a 3% increase in electricity demand over
10-year period [1]. It is estimated that the demand outstrips the
supply by approximately 560MW, which has resulted in load
shedding for long periods, between six to ten hours per day [2].
The deficit was caused by low rainfall and massive spillage of
19.98 billion m3 over 87 days in 2011. The country has been
forced to import power of about 350MW and emergency rental
power of 148MW at premium costs [3]. A growing population
and expanding economy is expected to increase household
demand by 7.9% per annum and industrial and agricultural
demand by 4.7% per annum [4].
Nearly 92% of Zambia’s generation mix is supplied by
hydropower, with the balance primarily result thermal
generation [1]. As the present energy shortage shows, Zambia
must diversify its generation sources. Zambia has immense
solar photovoltaic (PV) potential with an average insolation of
5.5kWh/m2/day and approximately 3000 sunshine hours
978-1-5090-4746-8/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE
H.Louie
Seattle University,
Seattle, WA, USA
louieh@seattleu.edu
annually [5]. However, the current installed capacity of solar
PV is just 0.06MW, and is mainly installed for off-grid rural
electrification by the Rural Electrification Authority. Zambia
plans to install 600MW solar PV. Construction of a 200 MW
plant was commenced in May, 2016 [6].
The key concerns of large scale solar PV integration include
balancing the net load, system inertia, frequency and voltage
ride-through capabilities [7]. Consequently, the capability of a
specific power system to integrate solar PV depends on the
flexibility of its generation and the extent of demand side
response [8]. Accordingly, blackouts can be common in an
event of drastic drop or rise in the solar PV output. This means
that grid stability is compromised due to the risk of severe grid
over- or under-frequency [9] if conventional generation is
unable to decrease or increase its power output quickly.
Active power control methods for renewable power plants
(RPP) include maximum power limitations, operating range
limitation, delta control and ramp rate limitation as highlighted
in the grid code for RPP in South Africa [10]. Ramp rate
limitation is an effective way of minimizing sudden changes in
the output from RPPs by limitation of their power gradient
through a set point [11]. Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
(PREPA) requires a 10% limit of rated power per minute by
wind and PV generation similar to the Germany transmission
system operators [12]. Other operators such as EirGrid
(Republic of Ireland) limits positive ramps up to
30MW/minute, HECO (Hawaiian) limits its ramps at ± 2 MW
per minute during all times (except for 00:00-04:00 a.m. and
16:00-20:00 p.m.) when ramps are limited to +1MW and -1MW
per minute respectively for wind projects less than 50MW.
Comparison of ramp rates for large and small PV systems
was done in [13] in which it was discovered that the power
output from both changes much faster than the maximum
PREPA permitted rate.
This paper investigates the maximum solar PV capacity that
can be integrated into the Zambian national grid. A quasi-
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steady-state analysis is performed considering hourly intervals
over a 68-day period to determine at what PV penetration level
the ramp rates of the existing generations become a limiting
factor for stable integration. The analysis is specific to Zambia
and is based on real-world data. The focus is on exploring the
upper limit of PV integration and not the economic impact,
although this analysis is also provided.
This paper is arranged as follows. In Section II, an
overview of the Zambia power systems is provided. Section III
describes the Optimal Power Flow Algorithm. The results are
discussed in Section IV and the conclusions are given in Section
V.
II. ZAMBIA POWER SYSTEM
Zambia’s generation resource mix primarily consists of
hydro power (91.5%) The other sources are diesel (3%),
thermal (0.5%), heavy fuel oil (2%) and biomass (1.7%). In
2014, the total energy generation was 14TWh from a total
installed capacity of 2396MW. The total peak power demand
was estimated at 2437MW for 2010 and projected to be above
2400MW in 2020 [1]. The regional interconnection of the grid
is facilitated by Southern African Power Pool.
The generation voltage is 17.5kV, transmission line
voltages are 330kV, 220kV, 132kV, 88kV and 66kV, and
distribution line voltages are 33kV and 11kV. The hydro major
hydro generators are located in remote locations near the
Zambezi River, Kafue River and Lake Kariba in the Southern
Province. The major load consumers are the mines on the
Copperbelt province in north-central Zambia, and domestic
loads-countrywide accounting for 85% of the total demand.
The high-voltage transmission system has a total length of
approximately 4785 km.
I. POWER SYSTEM MODEL AND OPTIMAL POWER FLOW
(OPF)
A. Grid model
The simulation in this paper is based on actual hourly data
from the Zambian system over a 68-day period. The Zambian
grid model consisted of seven voltage levels, 90 buses, 45
transformers and 163 branches. Thermal and voltage limit
constraints were included in the model. Out of 12 hydro power
plants in Zambia, only three stations were explicitly simulated
because they account for 95% of the total hydro power
installed capacity. The generation from the other hydro power
plants was modeled as net power injections at their bus. The
value of the injection was computed based on the difference
between the load at the bus and the flow of power into and out
of the bus. The total diesel power plant capacity is 80MW and
is primarily used to provide peak and emergency power to the
mines in the event of grid failure.
B. Solar Model
The location of the hypothetical solar power plant modeled
was near Lusaka, Zambia ( 15 ° S and 28° W). Factors such as
angle of tilt of the panel, ground reflectance and clearness
index were all accounted for and aside from the varying
irradiance; it is assumed the panels are operating under
Standard Test Conditions (STC).
Hourly irradiance data was obtained from the metrological
center at the University of Zambia [14]. The irradiance was
converted to power output based on the capacity of the PV
power plant considered. The performance of the solar PV
power plant was similar for the different PV levels as it was
assumed that effects of panel shading, etc. was the same for all
PV capacities. Fig. 1. shows the mean daily solar PV output
profile expressed as a percentage of the installed PV capacity,
as well as output corresponding to the day with the maximum
and minimum energy production. Note that it is possible for a
PV array to exceed rated power production if exposed to
irradiance exceeding that of STC (1000 W/m2).
Fig. 1. Mean daily Solar PV output as percentage of installed
PV capacity
The generation from the solar power plant was modeled as
point injections primarily in the transmission network (330kV,
Lusaka West Substation), as is typical in power flow analysis,
therefore, DC/AC converters are not explicitly modeled.
C. OPF mathematical derivation for model
The Matlab Interior Point Solver (MIPS) included in
MATPOWER version 5.1 uses primal-dual interior point
method and solves the problem of the form [15]:
min f ( x , u ) (1)
x
g ( x, u ) = 0
subjected to (2)
h ( x, u ) = 0
where f is the object function to be minimized, g is the
equality constraints given by the power flow equations, h is
the inequality constraints that represent the operating limits of
the system, x is a vector of dependent (state) variables (e.g.
slack bus power, load bus voltages, generator reactive power
output, and transmission line ratings), u is a vector of
independent (control) variables (e.g. generator voltages,
generator real power outputs except the slack bus, transformer
settings and shunt VAR compensation).
For a stable power system, the supply is equal to the load
demand and losses:
Pg = Pd + Pl (3)
where Pg is the total power generated, Pd is the total system
demand and Pl are the total system losses. The total power
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generated is the sum of the power produced by all the Table 1. Generator cost functions
generators in the system: Power Plant Cost Coefficients
Pg = Ph + Pt + P PV + P im (4) α ($/W2) β ($/W) γ ($)
where Ph , Pt , PPV and Pim are the total power from the
hydro, thermal and PV plants, respectively, and Pim is the Kariba 0.00288 5.6 5400
imported power. The hydropower can be further expanded as: North Bank

Ph = PKN + PKG + PVF + PSH (5) Kafue 0.00108 3.7 4300

Gorge
where PKN represents Kariba North Bank power plant, PKG
Victoria 0.0072 1.2 2400
Kafue Gorge power plant, PVF - Victoria Falls power plant and
Falls
PSH represents small hydro power-plants.
Solar Plant 0 2.2 0
The minimum and maximum stable real power generation
constraints were included for the hydro generators based upon
generator data. In addition, ramp rates were enforced.
Where α , β and γ are coefficients and constant of a
The ramp rate limit constrains the rate at which the output polynomial cost function.
power level of a given generator can be modified from one
time step to another step [16]. The ramping limits are The total generation cost function includes the generation and
determined by the physical capabilities of the particular hydro transmission losses:
turbine and imposed by the regulators to protect the Ng
environment. It is possible that at high PV penetration levels, 2
F ( Pg ) =  (αi + β iPgi + γi ( Pgi ) ) (10)
the ramp rates will not allow the hydro generators to be able i =1
adjust their power output quickly enough to counteract the rise where N g is the number of generators.
or fall in PV power production. The simulation will fail to
converge, indicating there is no feasible solution. This can The objective function of the OPF is to minimize supply cost:
practically be interpreted as blackout condition, unless
corrective measures such as load-shedding, islanding occurs. min F ( Pg ) = f ( x , u ) (11)
These mitigating measures are not explicitly modeled in the The imports and exports are normally scheduled and
simulation. cannot be considered to be uncertain; their impact on the grid
Ramp rate, R, was computed using: can be predetermined. The variability of the local load demand
and power losses can be projected from the daily load profiles
Pt 1 − Pt 0 collected from past years. However, the certainty in the output
R= (6)
t1 − t 0 of solar power plant and its impact is unpredictable.

where Pt 1 and Pt 0 is the power output at time t1 and t 0
respectively. The limitation on Pt 1 are
P min ≤ Pt 1 ≤ Pmax
P max ≤ Pinstalled
where Pinstalled is the installed capacity of the plant.
The reactive power changes were constrained by the
generators reactive power limits
Q min ≤ Q ≤ Q max
The generator costs for the hydro generators were modeled
based on provided data and are provided in Table 1.
In an event when there is sudden rise in the solar output, to
maintain the balance between supply and demand, the hydro
generators output will suddenly drop (ramp down). This will
(7) be common during sunrise and when the cloud suddenly clears
after a complete cloud cover. In an event when the solar output
(8)
suddenly drops during sunset, around 17:00hrs, and following
the Zambian load profile where the load suddenly rises, the
output in the hydro generators will be made to rise (ramp up).
The impacts will differ with the level of solar power
penetration.
(9)
II. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
Hourly simulations were conducted from 18th February to 26th
April. The load for each hour was set equal to the actual
measured load. The PV output was based on measured hourly
irradiance values [14].
A. Load Profile Analysis
The average energy demand per day was 25.8GWh with
maximum value of 30.2GWh and minimum value of
19.4GWh. The total energy demand for the entire period of 68
days was 1755GWh with an average load factor of 0.64. The

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average daily load profile can be divided into five sections,

labelled I to IV in Fig.2.

Fig.2. Average load profile

These sections are typified by different ramp rates. The most
severe ramping occurs in the evening, during Sections IV and
V. During Section IV, the load increases, ramping at an
average of 53MW/hr. During Section V, the load decreases,
ramping down at an average of -116MW/hr. The hydro
generators must be able to ramp up and down their generation
to follow the load, in addition to the variability introduced by
the solar plant.

B. Generator Performance Analysis

The average ramp rate of the generators are shown in Fig.3
for the five daily sections, where d represents the demand, k
Kariba North Bank (KNB), g Kafue Gorge (KFG), f Victoria
Falls (VF) and s Solar PV.
Section I. During this section the load ramp rate is negative,
consequently the ramp rates for the generators is also negative.
Section II: All generators had a rise in their outputs to meet the
rising demand. When the solar PV penetration level was less
than 400MW.Conversely, the ramp rates dropped for the
generators when the solar PV penetration level was above
500MW. Kariba North Bank had the most reduction from
+28MW/hour to -52MW with 500MW and 800MW solar PV
respectively. However, with this PV level, Kafue Gorge and
Victoria Falls generators had a moderate change in their ramp
rates from +9MW/hour to 0MW/hour and +6MW/hour to
0MW/hour respectively. This is because over 50% of the load
is supplied by Kariba North Bank.
Section III. During this section, the increase in solar PV plant
as well as the decrease in the load causes the generators to
reduce in their outputs for PV levels below 500MW. However,
the ramp rate for solar PV is negative due to a severe drop in
solar irradiance between 15:00-16:00 hours of about 70% (i.e.
-70MW/hour and -560MW/hour for a 100MW PV installed
capacity) and 800MW PV capacity respectively. When solar
PV penetration increased above 500MW, the generator ramp
rates became positive to compensate for the negative ramp rate
of the solar PV plant. Section IV. The outputs of the hydro
generators increased due to increase in the load and decrease
in the solar PV plant. The percentage change in the ramp rate
of Kariba North Bank, Kafue Gorge and Victoria Falls with
solar PV to PV capacity of 800MW was +400%, -7% and +14
respectively. During this section, solar power output drops
considerably. Section V. All generators have negative ramp
rates in response to the negative ramp rate of the load. The
outputs are longer influenced by the solar PV.
Fig.3. Pg and Pd for sections I to IV.
The outputs from the hydro generators increase due to
increase in the load and decrease in the solar PV output. The
percentage increase in the ramp rate of KNB in its output with
no solar PV to PV capacity of 800MW is +400%. The
respective percentage increase for KFG and VF are -7% and
+14%. It can however be noted that KFG had -87% from no
solar PV to 100MW PV capacity and about -100% with
700MW capacity. This is because KNB had a percentage
change of +40% and +350% while VF had +9% and +14%
with 100MW capacity and 800MW capacity respectively.
All generators have negative ramp rates in response to the
negative ramp rate of the load. The outputs are no longer
influenced by the solar PV which now has an output of 0MW
regardless of capacity due to absence of solar irradiance at
night.
Fig.4a and Fig.4b indicates the average daily output profile
by each generator with no solar PV integrated and with
800MW PV capacity. The figures show that the generator most
affected by the presence of solar PV is Kariba North Bank
followed by Kafue Gorge with the least being Victoria Falls.

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 2017 IEEE PES-IAS PowerAfrica
Fig.4a. Outputs 0MW solar Fig.4b. Outputs 850MW solar
C. Ramp rate limit violation
When the PV plant is rated at 900MW, on day 21 (10th
March) 17:00hrs, the simulation did not converge. During this
time (time section V), the ramping of the load is most extreme,
as shown in Fig. 3. Fig. 5a-b. Indicates that at 17:00hrs on 10th
March, the output of Kafue Gorge and Victoria Falls Power
plants exceeded their ramp rate limits. Fig. 5c. Highlights the
ramp rates for the total system load and generators on 10th
March.
Fig.5a. Pg and Pd profiles on 10th March with 900MW PV
Fig.5b. Ramp rate violation
Fig.5c. Pg and Pd Ramp rates
The rate of increase in the output for Kariba North Bank
was +61MW/hour between 15:00 and 16:00 and
+109MW/hour between 16:00hrs to 17:00. Kafue Gorge on the
other hand increased its ramp rates from +156MW/hour to
367MW/hour while Victoria Falls generators had a constant
output of about 108MW from 15:00hrs to 16:00hrs but
increased by +5MW/hour from 16:00 to 17:00.
From 16:00 to 17:00, the PV production drops from
496MW to 65 MW due to the sun setting. During the same
time, the load increases from 1377MW to 1430MW. The total
generation therefore must increase by 431MW (and 4MW
increase in losses). However, at 16:00, the production from
Kariba North is 149MW, and is only able to increase its
production to 254MW due to its ramp constraints. Similarly,
production from Kafue is 627MW at 16:00 and can only
increase to 900MW; Victoria Falls is at installed capacity and
must maintain 108MW at hour 17:00. The result is that the
hydro generators in total are only able to increase their
generation by 378MW, which is insufficient to continue stable
operation. A blackout would occur.
Since no constraint violations occur when the PV penetration
level is 850 MW, it can be concluded that the maximum PV
capacity should not exceed this value without lowering the
reliability of the system. In practice however, the maximum
level could be lower than this as the simulation only covered a
68-day period and not all probable operating conditions were
represented. Nonetheless, the analysis provides insight into the
approximate level of PV penetration that can be integrated in
Zambia. It is also worth noting that no thermal line or bus
voltage constraints were violated during any simulation,
suggesting that ramp rates are the binding constraints.
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D. Cost analysis
For completeness, the objective function (cost) associated
with each level of PV penetration is provided in Fig. 6.
Fig.6. Cost per PV level
The comparison of total costs with no solar PV integration
and with solar PV level of 800MW suggests a saving of 9%
production cost of hydro. Large scale solar power plant has an
installation cost of $2.2-6/W slightly higher than large scale
hydro of $1.05-7.65/W, however, hydro power plants require
an operation and maintenance cost of 2-2.5%/year of the
installed cost.
III. CONCLUSION
With solar PV integrated into the existing Zambia grid
(2015 data), the impact on the output of the three hydro
generators is different with Kariba North Bank experiencing
the highest. The most variability occurred during sunrise
(05:00hrs to 10:00hrs) and sunset (16:00hrs to 21:00hrs). The
solar PV suddenly increases and decreases respectively along
with the drastic increase in load demand in both periods. Based
on the simulation results, 850MW solar PV capacity was the
maximum PV penetration level below which the ramp rate
constraints on the hydro generators were not violated. In
addition, there is a cost saving benefit of integrating solar PV
making it a promising option for renewable energy integration.
Future research should include a study on improved flexibility
of the conventional generation, advanced forecasting, reserve
management and energy storage.
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