California Housing Market

Update

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics

July 2018
 Sales Declined for the 3rd Consecutive Month
California, July 2018 Sales: 406,920 Units, -1.4% YTD, -3.4% YTY
700,000

600,000
Jul-17: Jul-18:
421,920 406,920
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 California Home Sales Continued to Decline
for the 3rd Month
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Bay Area Sales Up in Five of the Last Six
Months
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Southern California Home Sales Bounced
Back in July
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
YoY % chg.
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Central Valley Sales Virtually Unchanged from
Last Year
YoY % chg. Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Sales Declined in Every Segment under $500k
July 2018 (Year-to-Year)
25%
19.0%
20%
15% 13.7%

10% 5.3% 5.7%

5%
0%
-5% -1.2%
-3.5%
-10%
-8.7%
-15%
-20%
-25% -21.3%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 CA Median Price Dipped Slightly after Setting
a New Record High
California, July 2018: $591,460, -1.9% MTM, +7.6% YTY
Jul-18:
P:May-07
$700,000 $591,460
$594,530 Jul-17:
$549,470
$600,000

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile
Year-over-Year Price Growth
10% 9.3%
9%
8% 7.8%
7.1% 7.1% 7.2%
7% 6.7%
6.4% 6.4%
6%
5%
4% 3.4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Growth Remained Strong for both
Homes and Condos
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Condo/Townhome Market Set Another New
Record High Median Price
$600,000 Condo

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

Jul-18:
Jul-17:
$486,330
$300,000 $443,160

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07

Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12

Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Dec-17
May-08
Oct-08

May-13
Oct-13

May-18
SERIES: Median Prices of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Per Square Foot Remained Near Record
High
July 2018: $289, Down 0.3% MTM, Up 7.0% YTY
$400
Jul-18:
$350
Jul-17: $289
$270
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales Price -to-List Price Had 1st Decline in
40 Months
July 2018: 99.6%, -0.4% MTM, -0.4% YTY Jul-18:
Jul-17:
100.0% 99.6%

100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Slow Growth in List Price Suggests Sales
Price Tapering Off in the Near Term
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
1/1/2009
5/1/2009
9/1/2009
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012
9/1/2012
1/1/2013
5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
100.8%
100.6%
100.6% 100.5%
100.4%
100.2%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
99.8%
99.6%
99.4%
99.2%
99.0%
98.8%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile

Jun-17 Jun-18

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Time on Market Near Record-Low Level
California, July 2018: 18.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30

20

10

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Median Time on Market by Percentile
Median Time on Market
30
25
25
22
20 18 18 18 18 18
16 16 1717 1615 1617 16
14 15 1515
15

10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile

Jul-17 Jul-18

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Reduced-Price Listings
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.0%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.2%
Reduced-Price Listings
50% 10%
45% 9%
40% 8%
35% 7%
30% 6%
25% 5%
20% 4%
15% 3%
10% 2%
5% 1%
0% 0%
1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Up from 2017 but Remained
Tight
July 2017: 3.2 Months; July 2018: 3.3 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Had the Highest Growth Rate
since at Least Jan 2015

Year-over-Year % Chg
15% 11.9%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions
12
10.5
10 9.1

6
4.7 4.6
4.0 4.0 3.9
4 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.3
3.0 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.7
2

Jul-17 Jul-18

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Housing Supply Improved across the Board,
Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment
July 2018
Active Listing
30%
20.0%
20% 17.5%
14.6% 14.3%
11.9%
10%
4.2% 3.4%
0%

-10%

-20% -17.4%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to
Soften
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0
3.6
3.0 3.1

2.0 2.2

1.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings by Month
Active Listings by Month
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2017 2018
 Active Listings Surged in All Regions
July 2018

Sales Active Listings

30%
26%

20%
Year-to-Year % Chg

14%

10% 8%

2%
0%
0%
-1%

-10%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®