Mel Tappan’s Personal Survival Letter # 8

Issue No. 8

Survival Wheels
by Rick L. Fines

“I’ll bet that thing’ll go just about anywhere!” Don’t you believe it.

“I’ll bet that thing’ll go just about anywhere” is a phrase you will frequently hear after you acquire a survival
vehicle. I’ve heard that empty accolade bestowed on everything from trail bikes to tanks- with great conviction and
total inaccuracy. The fact of the matter is that anything that moves can get very firmly stuck.

If we concede that a vehicle likely not to get stuck is a main battle tank, bear in mind that the US Army maintains a
substantial inventory of armored vehicles called tank retrievers. Something like full-tracked tow rigs, these
machines are employed when tankers discover that even fifty-plus rumbling tons of M48 or M60 can bury itself up
to the hatches in goop or sand.

The mechanical bravado “go anywhere” thinking is reflected in some of the current TV commercials. Ford hoists
one of their trucks up in the air, drops it in slow motion; then cautions you in fine print not to do the same silly
thing to your own truck. One ad from the time Kaiser still owned Jeep showed a CJ5 charging up a hill so steep that
the machine was ready to flip over backward.

One car maker has just been told by a court that nonsense ads are a no-no. It seems that a fellow from Michigan
tried some of the stunts portrayed in a television ad. After he broke his shiny new four-wheeler, his dealer very
rightly denied warranty coverage on the grounds that the machine had been obviously and unreasonably abused.

The owner -and his lawyer- piously contended that he was only doing what those TV folk did when his truck bent.
The court told the manufacturer to pay for unbending the man’s truck. The end result is that the makers are toning
down their ads to reflect reality and avoid litigation.

A fair question at this point is “Who cares?” You no doubt know your way from where you are to where you need
to be. The off-road bit may hold no interest whatever for you. Off-road driving is expensive, slow, dirty, and
uncomfortable compared to motoring down the pike with your thermostatic air, power steering, speed control, and
stereo lulling you to sleep.

Freeways are engineering marvels. They are also marvelous traps. If a load of chickens happens to upset, if a
policeman decides to write a ticket, or -at least in Southern California- if it happens to sprinkle rain, traffic grinds to
a lugubrious halt. The crawl may last for hours or minutes.
Consider what would happen if something really major interfered with traffic flow. A general, panic evacuation of
any major city would qualify. Assume there are no signals operating anywhere. There are no tow trucks to clear
wrecks, or phones in operation to report obstructions.

The absence of police writing tickets on the shoulders would be a plus, but those same police would be busy trying
to direct an unending flow of traffic in a combination of conflicting directions. Besides no tow trucks, add the fact
that most of all service stations would be closed or empty.

The end result would be best described by a series of melodramatic but empty words. Pick one: chaos, mayhem,
disaster, or impossibility. If you happened to be one of the ants trying to escape on a road which had become a
parking lot, your chance of survival would be less than small.

To survive a general evacuation of a metropolitan area, you must learn some new ways to get from here to there
without using the freeways on which we have all become so dependent. You might find that a power line access
road, a park service trail, or a railway maintenance road will give you unimpeded access to a route to your retreat.

Getting out of the core city is the problem. Start by taking a very thoughtful tour of your immediate neighborhood.
If there is a railroad, check for a parallel road used by work crews.

Not all rail lines are accompanied by a service lane, but if you have access to one, it is a handy exit which is less
likely to be blocked than most city streets. In the deserts of the Southwest, it’s possible to go a good many hundred
miles on improved railway roads without seeing a public highway, save to cross it.

While the railway trails are improved, don’t expect a tree-lined boulevard. They are often rough and washed out
here and there. Obviously, there are no services of any sort available, so you must be fueled and equipped for
long-range cruising.

If you live near a National Forest or wilderness area, as do several million people in the LA basin, you’ll find a
literal maze of improved mountain fire trails, bridle trails, and hiking paths that are normally closed to the general
public. You must find out where they are, where they lead, and how to gain access to them.

This business of access can range from tricky to simply illegal. The closer you are to a metropolitan area, the more
likely these roads are to be blocked by locked gates and fences. The more miles you put between yourself and the
city, the more likely it is that the only obstacle will be a “No Trespassing” sign.

Some months back, we discussed the use of bolt-cutters as part of the onboard tool inventory of your survival
machine. The bolt-cutters are to open padlocks that block your way; their use is self-explanatory.

A vise-grip wrapped around a padlock and twisted will also open even good-quality locks. If you happen to be
dealing with a $30 padlock enclosed behind a steel shield, there is still a remedy short of a cutting torch.

Armor-piercing .30-06 or .308 military ammo, distinguished by a black painted tip, will open just about anything
with a lot less commotion than you might imagine. Obviously, this procedure is noisy and there is some minor risk
from flying fragments. This drastic fix is to be used only with great care.

For this sort of locksmithing, get back at least fifteen or so feet and aim for the center of the lock. If you do your
job, the AP ammo will perform. Do not try this with commercial soft-point ammo unless there is simply no
alternative. The hunting bullet is likely to splatter rather than cut.
As a note of interest, AP ammo, unlike tracer, is unrestricted and generally sells for a bit less than ball ammunition.
There are those who suggest that AP is very hard on rifle barrels, but evidence compiled years ago at Springfield
Armory is to the contrary. Find some AP, mark it, and keep it handy.

Remember that what we are talking about here is, at the very least, a misdemeanor. If you destroy locks or gates,
you are probably skating on the edge of a felony. This is an emergency only procedure. We do not suggest that you
take up lock smashing as a weekend pursuit.

If the choice is between an expeditious escape and no escape at all, the method is up to you. We are not talking
about organizing a Jeep club here- the topic is survival. The means to that end may be a bit more drastic than what
we employ in the course of normal recreation.

The business of survival driving bears a good deal of similarity to off-road driving for sport- but with some very
substantial differences. Just as gambling in Las Vegas is great fun, the risks of off-road driving for sport and thrills
appeal to many. High-speed off-road running and hill climbing for the fun of it is great if it happens to please you to
pursue it, but keep everything in perspective. If you happen to detonate an engine at the sand drags, you worry a bit
after your bank balance, shove the broken machine on a trailer, and try to enjoy the remainder of the afternoon.

If a large rock jumps out and breaks off a fender and bends your front axle, about the worst problem you have is to
find a sack of money to patch the damage. Neither the sport driver nor the survivalist want to break their machines,
but part of the fun of driving off-road is the sheer delight of going like hell. Breaking the vehicle from time to time
is considered part of the price of admission.

The survival driver is not in the backcountry for fun. He must avoid damage to his truck at all costs. Going fast is of
zero importance, particularly since high-speed running leads to serious breakdowns.

Let’s consider what high-speed running on secondary roads produces in terms of specific damage. I think we can
agree that freeway and major highway operation will not be the rule in any survival situation, so the first problem is
apt to be vibration. Besides making you tired and prone to accident, vibration dismantles your machine piece by
piece.

If the pounding is particularly bad, it won’t be long until your radiator develops leaks at its lower corners from
chassis flexing which, in turn, twists the radiator in its mounts. The radiator hoses will loosen at their connections
and drip your coolant into the dirt where it won’t do much cooling.

Tires which impact rocks at high speed often blow to the point of being unrepairable. Even wheels can be bent to
the point of failure. Batteries deteriorate rapidly when exposed to vibration, particularly when hold downs are
neglected. Every bolt will loosen and many welds will crack or fail.

Springs -both leaf and coil- break unexpectedly. The shock of spinning free, then grabbing -as happens in
high-speed running over uneven terrain- can cause axles and differentials, which would ordinarily last into the next
century, to fail.

Most all fuel tanks have some accumulated dirt and sediment sloshing about in them. Under normal conditions, the
corn flakes lie harmlessly on the bottom and cause no problems. When they are agitated by bouncing up and down
over a rough road, they can clog fuel pickups, fuel filters, and carburetors. The result may range from hard starting
and rough running to a dead stop.
The remedy is to isolate the stoppage and clear it; a chore which involves crawling around underneath and blowing
air back through the fuel lines until the crud is cleared. A far simpler expedient is to take it slow and easy and avoid
all the shaking and jangling.

A popular advertising hype that brings all sorts of grief centers around the Baja road races. The contention is that if
some cowboy in a Nomex leisure suit can hold on to his car and his kidneys long enough to finish the (pick one:
grueling, punishing, treacherous, killing…) Baja race, then whatever he was driving is the machine for you. The
fact is that the machines you can buy bear about as much resemblance to the race vehicles as a Rockwell electric
drill resembles a Rockwell-produced space shuttle craft.

Driving skill and experience in real-world situations far outweigh the importance of expensive, trick equipment.
Some years ago, that fact was driven home with embarrassing clarity. I managed to hopelessly mire a new Jeep in a
bottomless Sierra bog. A laughing old woman in a ‘50 Chevy pickup with bald tires drove into the mess, tossed me
a line, and pulled me out. So much for expensive equipment versus skill and experience.

Just as reading about shooting cannot make you a good shot, all the books in print about off-road driving will not
transform you into a reliable operator. You must get out and do it in order to learn to do it well.

Some months ago, you’ll remember that a Korean Boeing 707 was forced down many miles inside the Soviet
Union simply because the crew did not know where they were. The dead passengers aboard the 707 represent the
sort of trouble a survivalist can get himself into if he goes the wrong way at the wrong time.

The way to avoid getting lost is simple- carry maps and a compass. If you happen to follow the land-mobile
survival concept -which we do not endorse- the need for maps is obvious. Where you run the best chance of getting
yourself into trouble is when you have an established retreat site and know the way, including alternates, by rote.

If the site is more than a few dozen miles away, you need maps just as much as the survivalist with no set route in
mind. The problem is that if your primary route is blocked and your alternates are impassable, you had best know
where to go without puzzling about in wonder. Otherwise, someone may offer you advice of the sort the Soviet Air
Force gave the KAL captain.

The term “map” is a deceptively simple one. The first thing you should realize is that no matter how well you think
you know an area, there are roads and trails that you are unaware of. When testing the moped we discussed in a
previous column, I was surprised to find all manner of alleys and backstreets in the first hour or so of driving that I
had not discovered in some ten years of traveling the same area by car.

The Best maps are put out by the US Coast and Geodetic Survey. These maps are available from the government or
from commercial sources in most metropolitan areas. Look under “maps” in the yellow pages. The scales vary so
that you can buy absurdly detailed maps of very small areas, as well as a range of more practical scales.

As a matter of interest, buy a map of an area you think you know very well. You’ll find roads and trails called out
that you never had reason to notice. Since elevations are called out numerically, along with color differentiations,
it’s possible to plot routes through canyons and valleys where no roads exist. Secondary roads, abandoned rail
rights-of-way, powerline, and pipeline roads are all called out.

While the topo maps are the best overall, don’t overlook commercial road maps. Surprisingly, from time to time a
feature is shown on a road map that the government survey people deleted or overlooked. The maps put out by the
Automobile Club of Southern California are particularly good in the Southwest desert areas.
Another very useful reference is the aeronautical chart. You’ll find the presentation a bit different, but again there
will be points of interest and identification on these charts which justify their inclusion in your map case.

Just as important as your maps is a compass. At this point save yourself some money. Do not mount an expensive
compass in a bracket in the cab of your truck. The interference of the steel in the cab combined with electrical
interference makes the compass less than totally reliable.

Another point to consider is that you may have to abandon your vehicle. Leaving the compass behind would be
only a bit worse than lugging a grapefruit-size instrument along with you. Since you are navigating slowly, you can
stop to take accurate position checks.

Editor’s Note: The Suunto KB-14 and KB-21 hand bearing compasses are among the best and easiest to use
accurately. M.T.

After you know where you are and where you want to go, always take the route of least resistance. Remember that
few Mexicans in the Baja have shiny new American 4x4’s, but they manage to get where they need to go. The
reason is that almost all desert valleys have a combination of washes and trails running through them. In most
cases, a skilled driver with a 2-wheel-drive machine can do very well. Any good driver with a 4x4 should feel safe.

To illustrate the necessity of picking your route carefully, I’m going to cite another cliché of off-road driving:
“Always buy an electric winch because if you drive into water deep enough to stall your engine, the winch will
work.” I’ll talk about winches in detail shortly, but the point to be made here is that only a certified bullgoose
nincompoop drives into water of uncertain depth.

The same goes for soft spots, mud, drop-offs, or any terrain feature other than level, even road. Another good
reason for driving slowly is that you have a chance to see the problems coming, rather than muttering the classic
line: “What-the-hell-was-that-thing-I-hit-that-broke-the-spring?”

Since even the best of us have held temporary rank as field-grade nincompoops from time to time, there is one very
important thing to remember if you get yourself into deep water. If the water is deep enough to cover the exhaust
pipe, DO NOT turn off the engine. If the engine is running when the pipe becomes submerged, it will most likely
keep running unless the ignition system is flooded.

A common reaction when things get wet and squishy is to shut everything down and wander outside for a look. If
you shut that engine down with the exhaust pipe under water, it probably will not start again. If thing get wet
enough, the engine will shut down of its own accord.

A common piece of advice freely given by all manner of experts who have never tried it is to remove the fan belt if
you are forced to ford water deeper than good sense dictates. The logic is that water will not be sprayed about in
the engine compartment by the fan, thereby shorting out the ignition system.

The fact is that even though the block will be submerged and cooled slightly by the water, modern engines overheat
so rapidly that you are likely to lose your coolant at the very least, and possibly do more serious damage. The way
to do the job properly –though it takes a bit longer- is to remove the fan from its hub and leave the belts alone. That
way, the pump will be driven and maintain circulation.

A good rule to adopt for fording is that if you cannot see the bottom, forget it. Look for another spot. If you can
see the bottom, walk all the way across the area you want ford. Check for holes and soft spots; fill them with rock
if necessary.
If you encounter a washed-out road, walk around a bit. A passable crossing can usually be found. A last resort
might involve some pick and shovel work to clear a safe way. Most humans, particularly when in a hurry, are
inclined to bull their way though and hope for the best.

The fact that you are a survivalist removed you from the general run, so never forget it. If you spend ten minutes
hacking away with a pick, you could save hours compared to the risks of thundering into an impassible situation
and perhaps rolling the vehicle on its side or tearing the front suspension to pieces.

Always remember that there is almost no “stuck” situation that cannot be resolved with some thought and some
work. The more skillful you are and the better-equipped you have made your machine, the less time it takes to get
back in service. Unless your machine crashes and burns or goes straight off a cliff with you at the wheel, the
situation may be salvaged.

One of the most useful, yet at the same time least used and most misunderstood tools on any off-road machine is a
winch. Like the big chrome bulldog on the hood of a Mack Diesel, they look proper and lend an air of ruggedness
to whatever they happen to be screwed onto. Like the pot metal dog, most of them appear to have a lot of bark, but
in reality have little bite. The fact is that the majority of winches are simply never used. Even sadder is the fact
that many of them wouldn’t work if they were put to the test.

Most of the winches mounted on small (up to 1-ton) vehicles these days are electric. The motors used to operate
them are adaptations of automobile starter motors. There is nothing at all wrong with an automobile starter motor
when it is employed as intended. The proper application is one of intermittent service; that is, a lot of work for a
very brief interval. Winches do not work that way. A winch often imposes a moderate to heavy load on the motor
for an extended period of time. The result is an overheated or burned-out winch drive motor.

The old defense of the electric winch, as mentioned earlier, is that if your engine does not operate, the winch can. If
the generator is not carrying any of the load, that winch will not run for very long. As the winch pulls and the
voltage level of the battery drops under load, the motor will pull more current to get the same amount of work done.
As more current is drawn into the windings, the motor heats up. As it heats, it requires still more current to get the
job done and the cycle continues until the motor or the battery gives up.

The PTO, or power take-off winch is the tool of choice. Rather than an electric motor mounted on the winch casing,
the PTO uses a small gear box mounted on your transmission or transfer case to turn a drive shaft which powers the
winch with the output of your engine.

There’s a trick you can use to make the PTO winch operate when the engine will not: Simply remove the spark
plugs from the engine, engage the PTO, then turn the whole works with the starter. With the plugs removed, engine
compression will be nil, and the winch can be driven carefully for short periods.

If you use this method, or use an electric directly, make certain that you stop from time to time to allow the motor
to cool. A real no-no is “stalling” the winch.

If the pull imposed is such that an electric winch ceases to spool in cable, shut off the current AT ONCE. Applying
full current to a motor which cannot turn induces a condition measurable in seconds from stall to motor burn-out.
The business of winch ratings is a curious one. The Garwood PTO winch mounted on the front of my M35A2
multi-fuel military truck is rated at 10,000 pounds capacity. The shaft which drives the winch is bigger than the
driveshaft on most automobiles and the PTO is larger than many light truck transmissions. The winch case is
aluminum, but two large men have about all they can contend with to lift the winch waist high.

I recently looked at a commercial electric winch for Jeeps and light trucks with a claimed rating of 7,500 pounds.
The whole rig could just about be stuffed into a briefcase and a small boy could carry the thing a good way without
getting very tired. I must surmise that the winch on the

Diesel is grossly underrated or the commercial folk are a shade optimistic when rating their products. The laws of
physics, plus common sense dictate that tiny, frail pieces of hardware are not very strong, no matter what the rating
plate says. I’ve seen winches rated at 5,000 pounds which looked barely sufficient to winch a small outboard onto a
boat trailer.

The most logical reason for the popularity of electric winches is that they cost (somehow) nearly as much as the
PTO-type, but they are far simpler for the vehicle dealer to install. Fitting up a PTO to a gear case involves some
consideration for clearances, plus routing of the driveshaft and installation of controls which require cutting the
floorboards. Installations of the electric numbers require little more than some very simple wrench pulling.

Somehow, winches have come to be regarded as the ultimate solution for any get-stuck situation. Sad to say, it just
isn’t so. In the sort of country that gets you stuck the easiest, there often is nothing heavy enough to which you can
attach your winch cable. The solution if you happen to be in the midst of sand dunes or scrub country with no trees
to winch to is a tool called a “dead man”.

The best dead man is an old heavy truck axle with the splined end whittled down to a point with a cutting torch.
Ideally, you should carry two such modified axles, plus a length of chain to loop around their flanged tops after they
have been driven into place with a heavy sledge. The pull is then distributed over the two axles so that you have a
better chance of extracting yourself.

The worst situation of all involves soft sand, where even a “dead man” may not be anchored firmly enough for you
to pull against. You still have a chance. The chance involves a lot of work, but it beats taking up residence where
you have landed. Remove a spare tire and dig a hole big enough to accommodate the tire and wheel.

Depending on how soft the sand is, you may have to bury the tire as deep as five or so feet; otherwise the tire will
simply be reeled in rather than the truck pulled toward the buried tire. If digging the hole wasn’t enough work, you
must also dig a trench from the bottom of the hole angling upward, so that the cable can follow a reasonably
straight path from the bottom of the hole to the winch drum.

If all that business sounds like an inordinate amount of work, that’s only because it is.

Something more important to remember is that the winch will be little more than a neat looking hood ornament if
the driver does his job. Remember to stop and look before you wander into a situation that tries to swallow you and
your truck.

In a good many years of driving in the Mojave, I can honestly count on the fingers of one hand all the times it has
really been necessary to spool out a winch cable. If you find playing with the winch fun, have at it. Otherwise, drive
slowly and carefully. Plan every move. If in doubt, get out and look. Whatever you do, don’t break your truck.
 Keeping It Together
Carl Kirsch, M.D.

In my previous column I illustrated many of the stress-related difficulties that can occur in the retreat situation with
a hypothetical group of retreaters. I pointed out that you might find yourself in a similar situation since many of
these stresses are sure to be present for you.

In this column I am going to present a stress evaluation scale so that you can begin to assess your current stress
level and become aware of what stresses are important and troublesome. This scale will provide you with a tool to
use now. In the next column I will present some preventative measures that are useful in dealing with stress.

The major treatment and prevention necessary for dealing with stress is, of course, the recognition that you are
under stress. There are many types of stress. You will see from the scale that some events we would usually
consider positive are called stressors in addition to those events we usually consider negative.

This occurs because the stress studies have been based on the concept that change is the stress factor and that both
kinds of events introduce change. Although this position doesn’t fit out usual concept of stress, it has validity. In
using the scale you will rate both types of events, since that gives you a basis for comparison with the other life
change scores studied.

This will help you decided whether your stresses have placed you in a more risky position that might lead to the
development of symptoms or illnesses. It is clear to me, however, that the stresses that people interpret primarily as
negative are the ones that lead to the most difficulty.

Some individuals have more problems generally coping with negative stresses and studies have shown that they
will more frequently run into stress-related difficulty. If you or a member of your group tend to function in that
way, it will be necessary to be constantly aware of this and to take preventative measures whenever possible.

The most difficult part of this will be to honestly assess yourself and your group. This can be done by evaluating
issues for each person such as: are illnesses quite frequent; is life experienced as being predominantly “hassled”;
are minor physical symptoms such as aches and pains, cramps, headaches, nausea, dizziness, etc. frequently
present; is a bad turn of events treated as a challenge and a chance to learn, or a catastrophe; is there repetitive
worry about future events that doesn’t lead to problem-solving? If an individual functions in many of these ways,
then his “coping style” will cause greater vulnerability to psychological and physical stress-related disorders.

Another very important aspect of stress is whether it is a random, unknown and non-controllable occurrence or
whether it is predictable. Whenever you can plan for and/or control the stress, its effect is usually reduced. For
example, many animal studies have demonstrated the interesting finding that the high hormonal, anatomical, and
physiological measurements of stress effects and damage occur in an animal not only from injuring or shocking him
but from just restraining him.

The animal in a padded restraint cannot injure himself but is helpless in the face of this stress. Helplessness when
an event, crisis, or catastrophe occurs is clearly one of the bases for the psycho-physiological experience of these
events as stresses.

Since we are dealing with issues related to survival during catastrophic situations, we need to consider the issue of
predictability. There is one element of predictability involved since you are reading this and preparing for some
type of disaster which, I assume, you expect is quite likely to occur. However, the timing of these events is not
predictable, nor is their exact nature.
No one knows which of the multiple scenarios postulated such as depression, rioting, natural disaster, war, or
interruption of food supplies will be the one to initiate a collapse. In addition, how severe the situation will be is
not known, so you have to prepare for what you believe will be the most likely possibility. Thus, there will be a
large amount of stress involved in the preparation alone.

When and if the events occur, how close they are to the scenarios you prepared for will also determine how much
stress you experience. So, even though you recognize that the events are going to occur, you will not be able to
eliminate stress and its effects. You will be able to reduce it through your material preparations, and by utilizing the
information that will be presented in this column.

This will help reduce your feelings of helplessness in the crisis. However a very important preparation factor will
be that you recognize that you will be helpless in the face of these events. What do I mean by that; I mean that
events are going to occur over which you will have no control even though you have made some preparations.

You will not be able to alter or markedly influence these events and the unexpected may occur frequently. If you
become aware of this fact now and begin noticing how you respond to situations in which you are helpless, you will
start to learn about yourself, how well you function, and what kind of stresses your body or your mind incur in
periods of helplessness.

This knowledge is the necessary basis from which you can begin to prepare yourself for the crisis. Future columns
will deal with different aspects of this preparation. At this juncture you should begin learning about yourself and
your responses and how much stress you are currently experiencing.

The “Schedule of Recent Experience” presented below was developed by Dr. Holmes in conjunction with Dr. Rahe.
It was initially derived for the usual living conditions of an American population and has some validation in
cross-cultural studies.

It was developed from a study in which people rated subjectively their response (on a point scale) to stressful life
events with marriage being used as the index event and given a mid-range rating (50 on this scale). There has been
debate about this schedule and yet it represents one of the few ways that you can get some objective idea of how
much stress you are currently undergoing.

In using this schedule I suggest that you rate the events for the previous two years although it is most often used for
a one-year period. This will correlate best with some of the better illness studies. I also believe that it will give you
a better idea of the total amount of stress that you are experiencing in your life currently. I suggest taking the test
now and seeing what your score is.

Other animal studies confirm this concept. They have shown that when the animals can exercise some control over
the stressor (like an electric shock) they do not respond as severely to the stress and develop fewer symptoms and
illnesses. Thus, they are not unaffected by the stress, but the magnitude of the stress effect is much less.

A classic study showed that when two rats were placed in a cage and one was trained to turn off the electric shock
used as a stress, that the rat developed few stress ulcers, experienced less weight loss, and had less hormonal signs
of stress than his companion rat who could not control the shock, even though they both received the same amount
of shock.

Other animal studies have shown that stresses occurring at unpredictable intervals cause more stress-related
physical disorders than those that occur at predictable intervals.
 Schedule of Recent Experience (SRE)
(Short Form)

1. Under “Number of Occurrences” indicate how many times in the past two years each of the events has occurred.

2. Multiply the number under “Scale Value” by the number of occurrences of each event and place the answer
under “Your Score”.

3. Add the figures under “Your Score” to find your total for this time period.

Life Event Number of Occurrences Scale Value Your Score

1. Death of spouse. _____ 100 _____

2. Divorce. _____ 73 _____

3. Marital separation from mate. _____ 65 _____

4. Detention in jail or other institution._____ 63 _____

5. Death of a close family member. _____ 63 _____

6. Major personal illness or injury. _____ 53 _____

7. Marriage. _____ 50 _____

8. Being fired at work. _____ 47 _____

9. Marital reconciliation with mate. _____ 45 _____

10. Retirement from work. _____ 45 _____

11. Major change in health or

behavior of a
family member. _____ 44 _____

12. Pregnancy. _____ 40 _____

13. Sexual difficulties. _____ 39 _____

14. Gaining a new family member

(e.g. through birth, adoption,
oldster moving in, etc.). _____ 39 _____
15. Major business readjustment
(e.g., merger, reorganization,
bankruptcy, etc.). _____ 39 _____

16. Major change in financial state

(e.g., a lot worse off or a lot better
off than usual). _____ 38 _____

17. Death of a close friend. _____ 37 _____

18. Changing to a different

line of work. _____ 36 _____

19. Major change in the number of

arguments with spouse (e.g., either a
lot more or a lot less than usual
regarding child-rearing, personal
habits, etc.). _____ 35 _____

20. Taking on a mortgage greater

than $10,000 (e.g., purchasing a
home, business, etc.). _____ 31 _____

21. Foreclosure on a mortgage or loan._____ 30 _____

22. Major change in responsibilities at

work (e.g., promotion, demotion,
lateral transfer). _____ 29 _____

23. Son or daughter leaving home

(e.g.,marriage, attending college, etc.). _____ 29 _____

24. In-law troubles. _____ 29 _____

25. Outstanding personal achievement._____ 28 _____

26. Wife beginning or ceasing work

outside the home. _____ 26 _____

27. Beginning or ceasing formal

schooling. _____ 26 _____
28. Major change in living conditions
(e.g., building a new home, remodeling,
deterioration of home or neighborhood) _____ 25 _____

29. Revision of personal habits (dress,

manners, associations, etc.). _____ 24 _____

30. Troubles with the boss. _____ 23 _____

31. Major change in working hours

or conditions. _____ 20 _____

32. Change in residence. _____ 20 _____

33. Changing to a new school. _____ 20 _____

34. Major change in usual type

and/or amount of recreation. _____ 19 _____

35. Major change in church activities

(e.g., a lot more or a lot less than usual) _____ 19 _____

36. Major change in social activities

(e.g., clubs, dancing, movies,
visiting, etc.). _____ 18 _____

37. Taking on a mortgage or loan less

than $10,000 (e.g., purchasing a
car, TV, freezer, etc.). _____ 17 _____

38. Major change in sleeping habits

(a lot more or a lot less sleep, or change
in part of day when asleep). _____ 16 _____

39. Major change in number of family

get-togethers (e.g., a lot more or a lot
less than usual). _____ 15 _____

40. Major change in eating habits

(a lot more or a lot less food intake,
or very different meal hours or
surroundings). _____ 15 _____

41. Vacation. _____ 13 _____

42.Christmas. _____ 12 _____

43. Minor violations of the law

(e.g., traffic tickets, jaywalking,
disturbing the peace, etc.). _____ 11 _____

This is your total life change score for the past two years. _____

Copyright 1976 by Thomas H. Holmes, M.D. For demonstration purposes only; not considered suitable for
research.

I suggest that you take your score and divide it by two. We will use this figure to compare with Dr. Holmes’s
one-year score ranges for the development of illness. His studies indicate that for the group of people with over 300
units in a year almost 80% of them will develop an illness. He defines this as a major stress or crisis state.

Of people with 150 to 300 units within the year, 50% will get sick in the near future. This score is defined as a
moderate crisis state. Of people with less than 150 units, only 30% will get sick in the near future. Although these
findings have been questioned, these stress levels do correlate at least with the development of physical or
psychological symptoms- if not actual illness.

I will discuss this in more detail in the next column, along with practical ways to use this information. If your score
is over 150, I suggest not stressing yourself further, if possible. Also do not expect yourself to get ill now that you
know you have been under high stress. For now, relax more than usual and get as much physical exercise as
possible.

These are important aspects of the stress-combating regime I will be presenting, and they will immediately act to
reduce some of the stress on you. Also, I suggest taking an inventory of the stresses that led to your score and
seeing if any could have been prevented.

Editor’s Note: My stress score for one year approached 350 points on the scale reproduced above, and I am just
now recovering from a sudden-onset illness that put me in bed for two months. Much of the stress arose from our
move to Oregon, remodeling (rebuilding?) the house, frustrations connected with getting the ranch operating on a
viable basis, and the like. Had the crisis begun during that period of illness, I would have been helpless.

This is one of several reasons why I urge those of you who are still vacillating to move to your retreats now. Not
everyone will experience serious illness, of course, but some degree of disruption is inevitable in any relocation,
and it is well to have it behind you before the trouble begins. M.T.

Guest Commentary
Editor’s Note: Jim McKeever is a difficult man to pin a label on for purposes of an introduction such as this, so
numerous are his professional credentials He is undoubtedly best known as an investment advisor and hard money
economist, but he also writes a newsletter called ​MISL.
(McKeever’s Individual Strategy Letter​, $120 or 30 silver dollars per year),offering investment advice and
​ hristians Will
occasional survival comments, self-publishes a projected series of his own books (the first of which, C
Go Through The Tribulation . . And How to Prepare for It​, is available $11.75 postpaid), and he is the head of his
own church. Jim is a regular speaker at the various monetary conferences that have become fashionable in recent
years and his ideas have become quite influential.

We are delighted to present Jim’s point of view to our subscribers because, even though it differs markedly from
Bill’s and my own, it is certainly provocative- and we share several conclusions on preparing for the coming
troubles, such as rural small town retreating and learning to live self-sufficiently. I am sure that you will find Jim’s
contribution of considerable interest. Should you wish to engage his services for consultation, by appointment, or to
order his books or newsletter, Jim may be reached at: 503-826-7302, P.0. Box 4130, Medford, OR 97501.
M.T.

Your View of the Future

by Jim McKeever

First let me say that it is an honor to write a guest article for PS Letter. I know Mel Tappan and Bill Pier personally
and count them both as men of vast knowledge and wisdom. We live on a ranch about an hour’s drive from Mel’s
ranch and visit often with him and his lovely wife, Nancy.

Mel asked me to write about my view of the future and what I was recommending that the readers of my newsletter,
McKeever’s Individual Strategy Letter,​ do in order to prepare for the future as I see it. Actually, what I do is to
encourage the readers of my newsletter to develop their own view of the future. The reason that I think this is so
important is because if I try to impose my view of the future upon them, they will not be committed to it. Therefore,
it is essential that they develop their own views of the future, so that they will be committed to them.

All of the decisions that you make are based on your view of the future. The past has been decided for you. For
example, as part of my view of the future I might foresee that the world will need more and more computers.
Therefore, I might buy IBM stock because that stock should increase in value, based on my view of the future.

I might anticipate that such and such a neighborhood will continue to appreciate in value, or be a safe place to live,
and therefore, I might buy a home in that neighborhood, because my view of the future says that a home there will
do well for me for years to come. The problem is that most people, in looking at a longer-term view of the economy
and the future in the United States, have not clearly defined what they see coming. At best their views of the future
are fuzzy and ill-defined.

I would encourage you not to live with fuzzy picture of the future, but rather to sit down and think through what
your view of the future is. Do you see a future of hyperinflation followed by deflation and depression, with life
proceeding as it did in the 1930’s? Do you anticipate an immediate crash with rioting in the streets?

Does your view of the future include a world war with a major confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union?
Do you expect to see rioting begin, but be squelched and controlled by the military?
Many of your personal plans and actions, such as where you will live, possibly what type of work you will do, and
which investments you make, will be influenced significantly by the view of the future that you develop. So take
the time to think it through and write it down.

After you have done this, review it every few months, because in our rapidly changing world your view of the
future must, of necessity, change. My view of the future is not what it was ten years ago and, ten years from now,
my view of the future probably will not be what it is today. You must continually update your view of the future.

Probabilities Favor a Dictator

I have just discussed the most important part of this article- that is, your developing ​your personal view of the
future.​ As an input to that, I will be happy to share with you my view of the future. (However, let me again stress
that you should not blindly accept mine, but you should develop your own.)

In looking at the future, we must of necessity deal with probabilities, since nothing is certain. As of the summer of
‘78, my probabilities for the future would be something like this:

Total anarchy in the United States 5%

Nuclear War 10%
Dictator in the United States 80%
Other 5%

As you can see, I think by far the most likely scenario for the future of the United States would include a dictator.
There are a number of reasons for my projecting this, which I will discuss.

The Basic Conflict

The basic conflict which has been going on for most of man’s history, but which appears to be racing toward a
climax, is the conflict as to what role the government will have in the affairs of men. One side says that the
government should be limited to protecting men from each other and from intervention by outside nations,
otherwise leaving them free to pursue their own affairs.

The other side says that the government should be in total charge of men’s lives, governing every aspect. This
conflict is likely to be resolved before the year 2000 and the whole world could go one way or the other. The odds
appear to be heavily in favor of going toward governments -or a world government- which will control every
aspect of a man’s life.

Even here in the United States, we have gone far in that direction. A man cannot do with his own property as he
wishes any more. He must get permission from the government to dig a septic tank, to subdivide, to build a
structure, to take water from his creek, to use chemicals in his food production, to have animals on his property in
the city, and on and on.

The same thing is true if one is operating a business. He must have government permission to open his business, to
sell stock in his business and to sell his wares. The government even tells him what type of safety equipment he
must have, and who he can hire.

By some definitions, even in the US, we are moving rapidly towards slavery. In every case of slavery, the masters
left the slaves enough of what they produced, so that they could continue to reproduce and at least have a happy and
comfortable enough life so that they would not revolt. The slaves then gave everything in excess of this bare
minimum to their masters, for their masters’ use.
The US today is taking 40% of every person’s wages for taxes on all levels of government, local, state, and federal.
We are moving dangerously close to economic slavery.

There are the beginnings of a tax revolt with the passage of Proposition 13 in California, but it is too early to tell if
the total amount of taxes paid there will be reduced or if it will be shifted from property to other taxes. If this tax
revolt fails to reduce the taxes, and they continue to rise, a total loss of individual freedom is the most likely thing
to follow.

Rioting Will Likely Start

Many of the writers envision a time of rioting starting in the US. However, their scenarios do not tend to be clearly
defined, nor do the nature and the magnitude of this rioting. Therefore, their readers conjure up visions of heavily
armed bands of rioters and looters roaming back and forth across the US for many months or years. I do not think
this will occur.

Let’s first take a step backward to see what is most likely to ​cause rioting to begin. I would like to emphasize the
word ​begin.​ In 1934, when the Social Security and Welfare Act was first passed, there was one beneficiary for
every 143 workers.

Today there is 1 beneficiary for every 1.8 workers. If you include government employees, who are economically
non-productive, then there is 1 beneficiary for every 1 worker.

By about the year 2005, when the people born in the baby boom of World War II all retire en masse, you are likely
to have several beneficiaries for every worker. At some point in time the workers simply will not be able to support
the freeloaders. What is likely to occur then?

Since my view of the future includes hyperinflation, I believe that at some point in time the government will simply
freeze the payments to the welfare recipients. Thus, if their payments at that time were say $1,000 per month, their
income would be fixed at that level, but as prices continued to escalate, soon that $1,000 would only buy their food
and rent, and before long it would only pay their rent.

I believe that at that point in time these welfare recipients will simply go into the stores and start taking what they
think is rightfully theirs- the food, TV sets, clothes, and so forth. Once this starts, and stores start being emptied, it
is likely that the good, law-abiding citizens who are not on welfare will join in to be sure that they have some
supplies.

This point, when the rioting has ​started,​ is the key pivotal point. I believe that the hue and cry will be for the
military to come in and restore order. I project that they will, in fact, do this- and quite easily. The people will cheer
them.

Once a nation is under martial law, by definition whoever is head of the army is dictator, and what he says goes-
period. In this case, the President of the US is head of the army, and therefore his word would be law.

Those who do not think that the US government and US military have the capability or the will to step in and do
this, I think by far underestimate their “opponent”. It is only if the government lets the rioting go on so long that the
personnel from the military forces desert and join in the rioting that you would have the degeneration into total
anarchy. I look at this as only being a 5% probability, which would make it very unlikely, in my view of the future.
 Other Scenarios for a Dictator

I do not think that a dictator will be forced on the people in the US. I think that, in one way or the other, things will
get in such a mess that along will come “a man on a white horse” promising to straighten things up, and the people
will cheer him and gladly receive him and relinquish control to him.

There are many other scenarios that could give rise to a dictator. If there were a non-nuclear World War III, on a
wartime footing the President of the US could easily assume the power of the dictator.

The Executive Orders, now on the books as law of the land, give him this total power in any emergency. This
emergency could be severe depression, which could cause the President to exercise his dictatorial power, based on a
promise to pull us out of the depression.

The hyperinflation could bring about total wage and price controls. From the Nixon era, we know that partial wage
and price controls do not work- they simply cause shortages. Next time the controls are likely to be total. If total
wage and price controls are instituted, we would be under the Soviet Union type of economic system.

There would no longer be any free markets or any economic freedom. Under a situation of total wage and price
controls, the President again becomes in fact, a dictator.

When I follow almost any scenario of the future that I can conjecture, to its ultimate conclusion, I wind up with the
most likely thing to occur being that the US will move toward a position of loss of individual freedom and total
subservience to an all-powerful government and/or dictator.

Can this trend be stopped? The answer truthfully is that I don’t know if it can be or not, but I'm surely going to do
everything in my power to try to stop it. (However, I’m not going to trust the safety, security, and well-being of my
family to the likelihood that we will be able to stop this trend.)

The US government was created to be subservient to the people, not the people to be subservient to the government.
If the people rise up, as they have in Proposition 13, and take back the reins of the government, then it is possible
for these trends to be reversed.

The stoppage of these trends rests, unfortunately, on the shores of the Potomac. Therefore, I encourage all of my
readers to get heavily involved with their Congressmen and their Senators- to write and telephone, and them on the
major issues. Be sure that the voice of the people is reflected in the laws of the land.

Preparations for This Future Scenario

Once you decide what your view of the future is, then some minor preparation may be all that is necessary. On the
other hand, preparing for the future that you anticipate may involve major decisions and changes in your lifestyle.

For almost any scenario that I see in the future, by far the best preparation is moving to a small town and becoming
self-supporting. By self-supporting I mean raising and preserving your own food, and providing your own water
and firewood. With these, one can endure a world war, rioting in the cities (and I think it will occur ​only in the
cities) and even fare as well as possible under a dictatorship.
My contention is that anyone can move to a small town within thirty days if he really wants to. It may mean giving
up a nice engineering or teaching job to work in some more menial position, but a move is ​possible.​ It is a matter of
priorities.

If you think you can move to a more rural environment when you retire or when the kids are out of school, and if
you think that a time of crisis will wait that long, then relax and be comfortable where you are. On the other hand, if
you think that a time of crisis could come within the next three to five years, the time to make that move would be
now.​

I think that being self-supporting is far more important than storing up a year’s supply of food, although I
recommend that. The reason I say that is that none of the people in the area in which we live have stored up a
supply of food, but they all basically produce their own food and share with their neighbors the surplus out of their
gardens.

Producing your own food takes time- lots of time. What you are doing is paying with your time in order to have
security and independence. Again, each person must decide if the price is worth it.

Another thing I have encouraged my readers to do is to have a supply of gasoline and/or diesel fuel. One can buy a
500-gallon tank and have the oil company come out monthly to fill it up. That amount of fuel and a small electrical
generator to run power tools, etc. can make life much easier and much happier during a time of any crisis.

If by wind or water, one can generate one’s total electricity on a contingency basis, this is even more desirable. By
having at least a small amount of electricity, the comfort of your life can be improved by about 3000%.

As far as guns are concerned, I certainly encourage people to have them, but my emphasis is primarily on the utility
use of the gun such as for hunting, shooting varmints out of the garden, and killing domestic animals that are being
raised for meat. I place less emphasis on defense for those in a small town, although well-chosen weapons can be
used for either purpose. Under a dictatorship, guns are likely to be confiscated.

This should be factored into one’s planning. Some possibilities for retaining weapons, legally, might be to become a
part-time deputy sheriff; require a gun to slaughter beef, hogs, and sheep, as a rancher; collect “antique”, but
useable, guns; or become a gunsmith and have “parts” that can be assembled. I’m sure you can think of other ways.

Another alternative for preparation, assuming the scenario of a dictator in the USA, is to move to another country.
The question then becomes, which country? I have tried living in several other countries, with not such good
results. I have found that by far the best country, with the most freedom, is the US. In Canada there is no
Constitution.

Therefore, you cannot plead the 5th amendment in answer to questions. You either have to answer the questions or
go to jail. There a wife can be compelled to testify against her husband and they can tap your telephone and use it as
evidence against you. Canadians are much further along the trail of losing their individual freedoms than the people
in the US.

I have found that in the Latin American countries you need to speak Spanish to live there comfortably. Most of
them unfortunately are either presently or likely to become military dictatorships. Moving across the ocean to the
Dark Continent, I would certainly not recommend living in Africa for any light-skinned individual. They are likely
to become an endangered species.
Europe I would count out because of the Russian military threat. (Most military leaders of the free world
acknowledge that Russia could take Europe in 48 hours, if it wished to.) Much of the Orient would be out, because
either China or Russia could take over those countries quickly, if they desired to.

This primarily leaves the islands of the Pacific as a possibility. If one wishes to live that remotely and primitively,
this would be a possible alternative for preparation against a dictatorship in the US.

Summary and Conclusion

I have encouraged you to develop your own view of the future. Write it down and review it frequently. My view of
the future, at present, is that the most likely scenario for the USA is for it to evolve into a dictatorship.

This could come because of war, rioting, economic collapse, or many other causes. The trend in America certainly
is toward less and less personal freedom. I believe this trend ​can be stopped and would hope that everyone would
do everything possible to reverse it.

However, in case the trend is not reversed, it is wise to go ahead now and make preparations for the future as you
envision it. One of the best preparations, if one chooses to stay in the US, is moving to a small rural town and
becoming self-supporting.

One should be prepared to provide one’s own food, firewood (fuel), water, and, hopefully, electricity. This
self-supporting life-style should take care of one, physically, regardless of what the future might hold.

Up to now we have just been talking about physical preparation. To me, spiritual preparation is even more
important. One can make all of the physical preparations, but when the crisis hits, be bitter inside and sour toward
the world.

Sitting with a shotgun at the mouth of a cave in which I have stored a year’s supply of SamAndy food and a bucket
of gold coins, daring anyone to come close enough to even talk, is not my view of a desirable way to live.

However one finds it, one should have an internal peace and joy that will see one through any difficulty. In my own
search for this peace and joy, I found it when I received Jesus Christ as my personal Savior. He gives me the
strength and the power to face any future, with love, joy, and peace in my heart.

I hope that you will place spiritual preparation high on your priority list. If I can help, you can contact me at P.0.
Box 4130, Medford, OR 97501, phone: (503) 826-7302.

Editor’s Postscript: If you buy the notion that old age pensioners and welfare recipients are the likeliest groups to
start trouble in a collapsing economy, then Jim’s suggestion that the government could control them via marshal
law is certainly a credible guess.

If you believe that all of our money becoming worthless is apt to send virtually everybody into the streets, then I
think the government will have a hard time restoring anything resembling order- assuming that the bureaucrats can
figure out a way to order a volunteer army about the countryside quelling riots without being able to pay the
troops.
So far as a dictator confiscating weapons is concerned, if he doesn’t succeed in doing it before he anoints himself,
he may discover that a few -perhaps even a significant few- may prefer to fight rather than accept an America
without a vestige of personal freedom. M.T.

What is Accuracy?
by Jeff Cooper

Townsend Whelen -may he sit at the right hand of God- wrote, “Only ​accurate rifles are interesting.” And it came
to pass that the riflemen of the world heard and replied, “Yea, verily.” And they caused to be propounded a dictum,
to wit: “If it won’t put ‘em in the same hole, it ain’t worth a damn.”

Santayana defined a fanatic as one who redoubles his efforts after he has lost sight of his goals. Whelen was no
fanatic, but his words have inspired a sort of fanaticism. This is no bad thing per se, but I think it can stand a bit of
examination.

Shrinking group size is a worthy aim, but it is only part of the successful management of small arms- rifle or pistol.
Pinpoint mechanical precision, measured in seconds of the angle, or even in full minutes, is interesting but not the
primary object of the exercise.

If one hole in a piece of paper is the entire purpose of marksmanship, anyone can achieve it simply by shooting
only once. ​Intrinsic accuracy​, in rifle or pistol, is a good thing, but it must be thought of as just one element of
practical​ accuracy.

Intrinsic accuracy that is beyond the capacity of the marksman to utilize, except possibly from a bench rest, is of
little use except in a bench match. Now bench matches are fine, and they tell us much about the construction of
firearms, but they relate to marksmanship rather as drag racing relates to Grand Prix. There is certainly a
connection, but the one is only part of the other, larger, concept.

I am constantly asked about “accuracy jobs” on auto pistols. What kind, who does it best, and for how much? I try
to respond gently by asking if the inquirer is sure he needs one. Unless he is a very fine shot, he won’t be able to
tell a ten-minute pistol from a five-minute pistol, so why should he bother at all until his skill can justify the
trouble?

Intrinsic accuracy is a function of barrel, chamber, lockup, and ammunition. It has nothing to do with trigger,
sights, stock, or firing position. It is best tested in a machine rest (with certain odd exceptions).

Practical accuracy,​ on the other hand, is the measure of what the shooter can do with the weapon, and while it is
thus a subjective consideration, skilled marksmen can still provide a reasonably uniform evaluation of it as applied
to any given instrumental combination. (Obviously anyone who thinks a telescope sight will make his rifle “more
accurate” has a bad case of semantic indigestion.)

Close examination of the relationship between intrinsic and practical accuracy has indicated that, given a useful if
not excessive degree of the former, the latter is overwhelmingly more significant.
For example, I own a Sturmgewehre that really will keep its shots in ¾” at 100 yards- from a machine rest. It has
coarse iron sights and a typical five-and-ten-cent-store trigger- if rather better than some of that sort.

I also own a light hunting carbine taking the same cartridge. It ​may stay in two inches, on a good day, but I will not
bet on it. It features a crisp, sharp scope and a crisp, sharp trigger. Which is “better”? Clearly we can’t answer that,
but if I had to grab one gun and run I would not hesitate. One piece provides superb intrinsic accuracy that I cannot
use; the other affords just fair intrinsic accuracy that I can use.

Naturally I would prefer the carbine to “put ‘em in one hole” but it wouldn’t really matter, because under field
conditions -time pressure, heart beat, wind, estimated range, variable light, improvised shooting stance, nerves- I
can only shoot so well, and my personal control is measured here in full inches, not fractions thereof.
Consider this matter of group size. A two-inch, 100-yard group establishes that the combination under
consideration (weapon, sights, ammunition, marksman, firing position, and time limit) can absolutely guarantee a
hit within one inch of the exact point of aim.

Most shots will be even closer than that, since two inches is the outside limit of the group. That is with a pedestrian
two-inch gun. With a gilt-edge, one-inch gun we could cut that maximum divergence to one-half inch. At 100 yards
we cannot even see increments so small, much less hold to them.

This is by no means to say that accuracy doesn’t matter, because it certainly does. But it would seem that we have
been conditioned overlong to the belief that small improvements in intrinsic accuracy can compensate for large
deficiencies in marksmanship, and that notion is clear off the paper.

An unimpressive rifle (three minutes, off a bench) can do a good job, in the hands of a good shot. But the most
accurate rifle in the world is no better (and no worse) than a Tower Musket, in the hands of a bad shot. Can a good
shot do better with a more accurate rifle? Yes, a little. Can a bad shot do better with one? No.

It is not a matter of absolutes, of course. There are degrees of intrinsic accuracy, as there are degrees of
marksmanship. It is just that one degree of personal marksmanship is about fifty times more important than one
degree of machine rest accuracy.

The measured firing stages for rifles at my range now vary from 25 to 1000 meters. We see a lot of shooters, using
many combinations of cartridges, weapons, sights, and positions. Hardly any one ever shows up who is not a great
marksman- by his own testimony.

Apparently nobody in Arizona has a rifle that won’t print one-holers at 100 (present company excepted), but when
we put the matter to a test something always turns up to spoil the show. I think what happens is that we have a
strong tendency to speak of what happened once as what should be expected every time- just like airline schedules.

This is perfectly understandable, but it does make for confusion. Any man who has shot a lot can remember some
pretty remarkable feats, but we must bear in mind that it is what we can do “on demand”, not what we may have
done upon occasion, that matters. Unfortunately we rarely do bear this in mind, and consequently we often sound
very foolish indeed.

There is a legend that almost any Boer farm lad (back in the days when boys were men and men were better) could
hit an opponent in the head at 300 meters- four times out of five. (Never mind the conditions, which don't really
matter, but we can assume a 7x57 GI Mauser, using issue sights, fired from prone.)
Today’s hotshots nod over this and comment that that was “pretty good”, considering the primitive equipment
available at the time. One might assume that they could do better given the range, the target, and the time. The
thing is, I ​have the range, and the target, and the time. I can sing out, “Show me! Show me ​now​.” No practice. No
warm up. No sighting shots. Just do it.

You’d be surprised -or maybe you wouldn’t- at the results.

Now all this is not to deride the splendid Boer tradition of marksmanship, nor even to embarrass today's thoughtless
braggarts; but it does indeed raise serious questions about the value of accuracy that is beyond the reach of the
marksman.

When the .264 was first introduced we ran across a party of hunters in the Kaibab, all proudly bearing the new and
much admired “magnums”. One of these heroes told me seriously at a Kaibab breakfast (a large but thin slice of
ham, topped with two lightly seared slices of fresh deer liver, topped by two fried eggs) that the great new .264
would do at 400 yards what a .270 would do at 300.

I was much impressed. These guys who can ice mule deer at 3- and 4-hundred yards must be very good indeed.
Later on I saw that same hunter twice miss a buck cleanly at 120 steps, shooting over the hood of the Jeep, and
again miss at 104 paces, off hand, by four or five feet.

The .264 is indeed a fine cartridge- both accurate and powerful. Perhaps it is better than the 270. It may even be
“more accurate”-in some combinations. ​But unless you can shoot up to it, who cares?

What the man can’t do, the rifle can’t either.

Sometimes I think that we Americans are “equipment happy”, believing that gadgetry is a good and proper
substitute for skill. “Out where ranges are long, you need (here substitute your favorite brand name) performance.”
Balderdash. Out where ranges are long , you need to know how to shoot.

Led on by a fatuous belief that any man is automatically as good as any other, and that if he buys the right brand of
goo he will automatically inspire unheard of concupiscence in all nubile females, we then naturally fall into the
belief that if we don’t shoot very well we can make ourselves do better by demanding more “accuracy” from our
weapons.

Well, some can. Very few, in my opinion. If we discard the consideration of out-and-out junk, perhaps one rifleman
in fifty can shoot up to his weapon- one pistolman in a thousand. Let us by all means continue to pursue the
excellent goals of Colonel Whelen, but let us not forget that it is the man, not the gun, that places the shot where it
belongs.

Investing In Diamonds
by Mel Tappan

I’ve had a dozen or so letters recently about the advisability of buying so-called “investment grade” diamonds as a
means of preserving wealth through the period of trouble that lies ahead. It seems that another newsletter has been
pushing them rather insistently.
It happens that I know something about the subject at first hand since members of my family have been diamond
merchants for more than 100 years, my father has been in the business for more than 50 and I spent a portion of my
youth learning to grade and appraise these fascinating stones.

There is much to be said for diamonds as a conventional investment on an historical basis and I would not quarrel
with their value as jewelry even now, but I see serious problems with them as a means of preserving liquid
purchasing power for survivalists.

To be sure, they are compact and portable and they even have a sort of intrinsic value as adornments, but the
inescapable questions are: 1) how do you know what you are buying and is it an optimum value; 2) who will you
sell or trade it to, under what circumstances and how will the buyer know what he is getting; 3) how will a value be
established when you want to sell?

The various sales organizations that have recently sprung up to cater to the current fashion of buying diamonds for
investment (many of which have no one on the staff who could distinguish a diamond from a zircon or a yag)
answer these questions in a single voice: buy only first quality, top color stones, certificated by the Gemological
Institute! Unfortunately, that answer doesn’t really solve the problem for survivalists.

For one thing, in a top-quality certificated stone you are paying a premium for clarity and perfection which cannot
be seen with a 10-power jewelers’ loupe, much less the naked eye, and except from other investors, the demand for
such stones does not approach that for “eye perfect” or 10x perfect diamonds.

The relative price increase for the certificated stones, historically, has never been as great as for the somewhat less
expensive but still very high quality gems required in the best jewelry. In terms of the overall diamond market,
these “certificated” stones appear vastly overpriced, in my opinion.

Further, the certificate -for all its mystique- is by no means a perfect solution. Diamonds cannot be marked for easy
identification and there is nothing to prevent the unscrupulous from obtaining the certificate on one stone and then
using that documentation with another of lesser quality.

Some salesmen will point out to you that diamonds have never encountered a substantial price setback. What they
often fail to mention is that diamonds are a strictly controlled market, the price levels for which are set by the
DeBeers syndicate. So long as DeBeers is around we will probably continue to have orderly, uptrending markets,
but it is difficult to imagine a survival crisis during which the diamond syndicate continues to operate serenely.

The diamond investment question is not as simple as some newsletter writers would have us believe. It must be
viewed in proper perspective.

We recommend that you spend first for a suitable retreat and the supplies necessary to make you self-sufficient:
arms and ammunition, storable food, medical supplies, tools, garden seed, alternate energy sources for heating,
cooking, and lighting. If you have the means, spend a few dollars extra on creature comforts; surviving a disaster of
the magnitude we foresee could be bleak with nothing beyond basic necessities.

Then buy trade goods- manufactured items that are difficult or impossible to improvise (we will have an article on
this topic soon). Next, one or two $1000 face value bags of silver coins for each family member, then bullion gold
coins such as Krugerrands.

If, after all this, you still have substantial funds to preserve -and the foregoing could easily consume several
hundred thousand dollars, including a retreat- by all means consider diamonds along with bars of precious metals,
but be aware that neither may have any great value until a viable civilization is re-established. In no event should
you consider bullion bars or diamonds as readily liquid assets during the crisis.

If you do decide to invest, choose your source of diamonds with great care. The burgeoning investment sales
companies may not fit your needs. Prudence and a certain natural aversion to lawsuits prevent my saying more in
print.

Letter from the Editor

Assuming that I stay healthy and that my ammunition supply is forthcoming, all of our tests should be complete on
the new crop of .45 auto pistols so that the evaluations can be presented in the next issue. I can assure you at this
point that what we will have to say is very different from anything you are likely to read about these arms in the
gun magazines. If you are planning to purchase a new .45, I hope you will wait to read that article- especially if you
plan to buy a stainless steel AMT Hardballer!

A spate of recent inquiries causes me to re-emphasize a point which I made several months ago in “Survival Guns
Update” when evaluating .308 assault rifles. Neither the M1-A nor the polygon barreled version of the HK- 91
should be used with factory-loaded commercial ammunition.

These rifles are intended to be fired only with the much milder military rounds. The standard cut-rifled barrel
HK-91,however, may be used with the full range of sporting ammo -including heavy bullet loads-, as well as
military, without adjustment.

So many of you have written to ask what brands and bullet styles of factory ammo to buy for storage in various
calibers that we are beginning tests this month to provide you with some definitive answers. This will be a lengthy
and expensive research project but I think it will be of great value to most of you.

Our report will be divided into two parts, handgun ammo: .380, .38 Special, 9mm, .357, .45 ACP, .44 Mag; and
rifle ammo: .223, .243, .270, .30-30, .308, .30/06, .375 H&H. Judging from our mail, there seems to be insufficient
interest to include a survey of shotgun shells. If you want us to prepare an article on that topic as well, let us hear
from you.

None of us at PS Letter is an expert on alternate energy and we have been unable to find anyone who knows -on a
practical basis- much more than we do. We have a backlog of unanswered mail on the subject and we would like to
provide you with some authoritative articles as well, but so far all the “experts” we have found are either
self-anointed or highly theoretical. If you have any suggestions in this regard, please drop us a note.

Bill’s Food Box

by Bill Pier

Essential Fats and Oils

In my years of experience, I have become acquainted with a major deficiency in most prepackaged food storage
units that needs to be discussed. This deficiency is the lack of enough essential fats and oils to provide not only for
adequate cooking use, but health needs.

There may be two reasons for this; first, fats and oils are not very interesting to most people and second, salad oil is
very difficult to can and ship due to leakage when damaged. Whatever the reasons for the lack, for your own
personal storage you will want to be sure that your family has an adequate supply of these necessary products.

For a one-year’s storage supply for one person, the minimum fats and oils required are six No. 10 cans: two cans of
either powdered margarine or butter, two cans of liquid salad oil, and two cans of powdered shortening.

This is a minimum storage and I suggest that whenever possible you increase these numbers by at least half again to
insure a safety factor.

Powdered Margarine

Powdered margarine is somewhat of a newcomer in the food storage business. Only after powdered butter had
become well established did most food storage companies start canning margarine powder. Most margarine powder
available today comes from one source no matter who may be canning it.

Beatrice Foods provides the majority of all powdered fats. Therefore, no matter who your supplier is, you can be
fairly certain that the product in the can is Beatrice powdered margarine. This is an excellent margarine, is easy to
use in cooking, and rehydrates to a whipped butter consistency when water is added.

There are some peculiarities that occur when margarine is rehydrated with water. First, there is no oily texture;
second, it does not melt, no matter how hot your toast may be, and third, it cannot be used as a frying agent.

However, if the margarine is rehydrated using a vegetable-based salad oil, all of the above mentioned disadvantages
disappear and it can be used basically the same way margarine you buy in the grocery store can be used.

In our experience with cooking, we have not been able to find a difference in texture or flavor when powdered
margarine is substituted for real margarine. Margarine does not need to be rehydrated when used in baking. The
cost of margarine is about 5 cents per tablespoon.

Butter Powder

Everything that we have written about margarine can be basically said about butter powder. Butter powder is made
from butter fat solids, non-fat dried milk, and salt. In cooking, I find no difference in flavor using butter or
margarine. In using as a spread, there is a slight difference in flavor and it is our suggestion that if you wonder
about which to buy for your family, you try both and find the one more acceptable to the members in your home.

Butter costs approximately 8 cents per tablespoon. I have repeatedly asked my wife for a recipe for butter powder.
The answer I receive is always the same: “There is no ‘recipe’ for butter powder. Just add water to it slowly while
mixing, until it is the consistency of whipped butter. If you add too much water, just add more powder!”

Powdered Shortening
Powdered shortening is necessary to substitute in any recipe where shortening is called for. It may be added dry to
any recipe with only a small increase in liquids necessary to compensate. If rehydrated with water, shortening
cannot be used as a frying agent or greasing agent because it will cause burning. Since salad oil can be used for
these functions, I see no reason to ever rehydrate shortening in any way.

It should be used straight from the can as a dry product. Again, experience has shown that there is no texture or
flavor difference when using powdered shortening instead of regular canned shortening. When substituting
powdered shortening in your recipes, be careful not to add too much water. It will give an unsatisfactory end
product.

Salad Oil

Salad oil is the workhorse of fats and oils. It will be used to grease all pans, do all frying, and rehydrating margarine
and butter. Because of its versatility, you may want to increase your salad oil more than recommended above. My
suggestion is that you choose a good quality vegetable base salad oil packaged in heavy-duty No. 10 cans for the
longest storage. If you have a choice between types of vegetable oils, my suggestion is soybean oil. It seems to give
a little better cooking quality and stores a little longer.

Storage Life

Fats and oils have a high concentration of lipids. Although we have stored all these fats and oils for six to eight
years with no noticeable deterioration, it is my suggestion that you may want to rotate them on a five-year basis. All
the fats and oils should be purchased in a filled can with no air space to speak of to cause oxidation. Fats and oils
should be stored in the coolest possible place, to reduce danger of damage by heat.