C A N A D I A N A S S O C I AT I O N F O R T H E C L U B O F R O M E
PROCEEDINGS
ANALYSIS OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT
Series 3 / Number 11
In This Issue
The Approaching Collapse
of Industrial Civilization
by Andy Clarke .................... 1
From Dissent to Discourse
by Gail Stewart .................... 7
Facing the Future
by Buzz Nixon ..................... 15
The Big Melt
by David Spratt .................... 18
Some Reflections on
Rationality (or the Lack
of It) and the Way Ahead
by J. Anthony Cassils .......... 19
Peak Oil and the Social
Consequences of its Decline
by Robert Bériault ............... 28
The Impact of Peak Oil on
Developing Countries
by Jon Legg ......................... 34
The Introduction of Plug-In
Hybrid Electric Vehicles
and the Evolution of the
Electrical Network Towards
the Hydrogen Economy
by John Walsh ...................... 40
Twelve Steps to
True Democracy
by Henry Beissel .................. 48
Significant Quotes ............... 56
November 2007
The Approaching Collapse of
Industrial Civilization
“During the last two centuries we have known nothing but
exponential growth and in parallel we have evolved what
amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily
dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its
stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of no
growth.”
— M. King Hubbert
In a Commentary contained in The Limits to Growth, published in 1972,
Aurelio Peccei and Alexander King, together with other members of
the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome, declared: “We are
unanimously convinced that rapid, radical redressment of the present
unbalanced and dangerously deteriorating world situation is the
primary task facing humanity. Entirely new approaches are required
to redirect society toward goals of equilibrium rather than growth. Such
a reorganization will involve a supreme effort of understanding,
imagination, and political and moral resolve. We believe that the effort
is feasible. This supreme effort is a challenge for our generation. It
cannot be passed on to the next. The effort must be resolutely undertaken
without delay, and significant redirection must be achieved during this
decade.”
Thirty five years have now elapsed since the founders of The Club of
Rome submitted their appeal in Limits to Growth, a book translated
into 30 languages and read by many millions. During the intervening
years the population of the world has increased by about 3 billion (80%)
to 6.7 billion. In 1972 the world was still functioning within its resource
limits but today it is over 30% into overshoot mode1. Thirty five years
1
ago the energy production per capita had just approached the
end of a 200 year period of exponential growth. Today, based
upon recent authoritative reports, peak oil production is PROCEEDINGS
imminent and energy availability to support the continued is published by the Canadian Association for the
growth of industrial civilization will enter a period of steeply Club of Rome. CACOR is a member organiza-
tion of the Club of Rome, founded in 1968 by
negative decline. Aurelio Peccei and Alexander King. CACOR’s
We also face a long list of unprecedented threats to life on this purpose is to conduct study and research into
planet. A fresh water crisis is looming in many countries,3 and problems of human well being and survival, and
to better understand our planet as a complex and
the food supply is becoming increasingly uncertain. About 40% finite global system. Views and opinions ex-
of the world’s population now subsists on less than US$2.00 pressed in Proceedings are those of individual
per day and the gap between rich and poor has never been contributors. Publication in this journal does not
greater and continues to increase. Species extinction is occurring imply endorsement by CACOR’s Board of Di-
at a rate of about 1,000 times greater than it did in the years rectors or its members.
before the Industrial Revolution.4 A May 2007 report from
climatologist James Hansen and five other scientists warns that EDITOR
“Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth perilously Andrew A. D. (Andy) Clarke
Tel: (613) 359-6243 (April to October)
close to dramatic climate change that could run out of control, (613) 828-8072 (November to March)
with great dangers for humans and other creatures.”5 e-mail: Aadc27@aol.com
A solution to the above threats to the planet would now require
the resources of two additional planets. Even simply EDITORIAL ADVISOR
J. Rennie Whitehead
maintaining the present level of affluence of the industrial world Tel & Fax: (613) 731-6536
would require that the world’s poor majority continue to remain e-mail: drrennie@sympatico.ca
impoverished, clearly an unacceptable solution. The
“significant redirection” within a decade which the founders CACOR OFFICERS
of The Club of Rome called for in 1972 is now history. Today,
three and a half decades later, humankind and life on Planet PRESIDENT
Earth are in unprecedented peril and a descent into a period of R.B. (Rob) Hoffman
economic turmoil and civilization collapse is rapidly Tel: (613) 722-5774
approaching. As Richard Heinberg said in May of this year:
“Verbal and mathematical logic, joined with empirical TREASURER
evidence, make an airtight case: we’re headed toward a cliff.”6 Catherine Starrs
(613) 745-2535
There can be little doubt that Aurelio Peccei and Alexander
King, were they alive today, would not dispute the probability DIRECTORS
that humankind is now beyond the point where the solutions Madeleine Aubrey, Fred Boyd,
they proposed in 1972 are still applicable. In one of King’s last Nancy Doubleday, Rob Hoffman, Elaine Isabelle,
Jon Legg, Sheila Murray, Ed Napke,
letters before he died earlier this year he expressed great concern
Ruben Nelson, Bill Pugsley, Catherine Starrs,
about what he described as “the continuation of human society Roseann Runte, Fred Thompson
as we know it, and even perhaps the very existence of life on
this planet.”7 ADDRESS: 34 Hereford Place
Ottawa, ON. K1Y 3S5
How did humankind — presumably the most intelligent and
innovative species to evolve during the Earth’s four billion year
WEB SITE: HTTP://www.cacor.ca
history – reach this fast approaching moment of great peril in
WEBMASTER: Fred G. Thompson
its biologically short journey? The unmistakable answer, while
ISSN Number: 1499-2094
obvious to some, is strenuously avoided by not only our political

2
and industrial leaders, the mainstream media but
humankind generally. Exponential growth in all its
several manifestations, resource depletion growth,
industrial production growth, toxic waste growth,
greenhouse gasses growth, and, most important of
all, population growth, is leading an intelligent but
flawed species to civilization collapse. All other
threats to a civilized world, including the war on
terror, are mere distractions compared to the irrational
and never ending growth on a finite planet of one
species, humanity. Even more serious, our present
trajectory is leading not only to civilization and
ecological collapse but is taking with it untold other
species that have, like us, also achieved existence on
our beautiful planetary home.
Why has exponential growth in its several forms
become a virtual instinctive and unquestioned
behavioral pattern in human society? A probable
answer is almost certainly related to the requirements
of species survival during our early biological
evolution. In our distant past it was the more
aggressive early humans (not unlike other animal
species) who were the more successful in meeting
their nutritional, security, and other survival needs
that tended to predominate. The human survival
imperative was driven by an insatiable appetite, a
predisposition to acquire needed resources, and a
desire to exercise domination over all competitors,
all precursors to the exponential growth behavior of
our species in today’s industrial civilization. The
premium placed on these characteristics at an earlier
period in our development led to them becoming
biologically embedded and dominant. Particularly
disappointing, the in-depth knowledge and presumed
sophistication of today’s global civilization is making
no effort to modify the continuation of growth beyond
the Earth’s sustainable limits.
It is perhaps an irony of all ironies that the very
qualities that facilitated our survival in an earlier
period of our biological history when Earth had no
observable limits, and became an instinctive aspect
of our behavior as a species, should not only threaten
our continued existence in the present era of resource
limits but also place in question the future of other
forms of planetary life.
While rooted in our biological past, in recent years
the emphasis on growth has also acquired a cultural,
economic and political dimension that allows no
opposition. The very suggestion that humanity must
now opt for a non growth, steady-state society is met
with disbelief and ridicule. Economic growth has
achieved a level of unquestioned acceptance to all
peoples, to all political parties, and to all nations, to
the point where advocacy by a political leader of an
alternative economic and political system ensures
almost certain political defeat at the next election.
Some political leaders even adopt the absurd view
that a solution to problems related to growth, in its
several manifestations, is more growth. 8 The
momentum of the exponential growth mindset not
only tolerates no opposition but is blindly leading us
to civilization collapse.
Notwithstanding the deeply ingrained bias toward the
growth imperative, 35 years ago Aurelio Peccei and
Alexander King did speak of the need for new
approaches to “redirect society toward goals of
equilibrium rather than growth.” In today’s world,
however, even in limited forums, little or no serious
debate is occurring on the need to change the growth
orientation of economies to self sustaining
equilibrium or steady-state economies. Rather the
emphasis is on research and development to achieve
a scientific and technological breakthrough — a
“techno fix”— to allow economies throughout the
world to continue to enjoy the benefits of cheap
energy when low cost fossil fuels are no longer
available in sufficient quantities to meet world
demand. What is not generally appreciated by the
misplaced hubris of the techno fix advocates is that
an alternative source of low cost energy, whether it
be a breakthrough in fusion or another source, would
at best only delay, and probably make worse, the
inevitable collapse of industrial civilization.
Although not widely understood, low cost oil, more
than any other resource, is today both an “essential”
resource of industrial civilization and the key which
unlocks all other resources, be they the mining of
minerals, the production and distribution of food, the
pumping of water, all forms of transportation,
industrial production, and the building and
3
maintenance of a nation’s infrastructure. Plentiful and
cheap energy from a new source would not solve
humankind’s encounter with today’s limits but would
only delay by a few short years an encounter with
new sustainable limits, be they the availability of
essential minerals, metals, food, fiber, water, or human
congestion. The additional population growth that
would almost certainly occur during the delay interval
would lead to a still greater human and planetary
tragedy.
Delaying tactics in confronting the disease of
exponential growth will therefore be to no avail. Time
is no longer our friend. It is now late in the day for us
to apply to ourselves the same level of intellectual
honesty, and reasoned thought, that we have long
understood and accepted when other life forms
increase rapidly in number, whether they be an animal
in an environment with plentiful food and without
enemies, or bacteria in a petri dish with plentiful
nutrients. Our biological and cultural acceptance of
runaway, out of control, exponential growth, aided
and abetted by our homo colossus ego, is already
exacting an enormous increase in human pain and
suffering. Our failure to act several decades earlier
when it was still possible to prevent the collapse of
today’s industrial civilization, means that our future
is now dark and uncertain. Planet Earth’s sixth great
extinction, the first extinction initiated by an evolved
life form, may be unavoidable.
We cannot escape the fact that all earlier civilizations
in human history collapsed. There are no exceptions.
Perhaps it was too much to expect the world’s first
global civilization to get it right first time, particularly
when its exceedingly rapid rise and unprecedented
growth was achieved largely by stumbling upon a one
time only high density energy source representing
millions of years of stored sunshine. Had the
emergence of the world’s first global civilization
occurred based on a renewable but less dense energy
source, requiring several centuries rather than little
more than 100 years to reach its present level of
science and technology, the slower pace of
advancement and additional time may have facilitated
the development and implementation of a required
minimum level of political and social sophistication,
4
including essential global population control
measures. We were not so fortunate. An energy source
of unprecedented density, once discovered, set the
stage for our biologically driven nature to consume it
with explosive speed. We, a species bent on growth
above all else, were allowed insufficient time for the
development of the social and political skills
necessary for civilization survival. Consumption and
numbers trumped reason.
Human society also had the opportunity during the
20th century to effect a smooth transition to several
forms of renewable energy, but that time has now
passed. In retrospect, had humanity the insight, the
societal discipline, and the political will to limit the
growth in human numbers during the 20th century to
about half the quadrupling that in fact occurred, and
exercised greater prudence in the more efficient use
of a critical finite resource, oil, the onset of the present
crisis in civilization could have been postponed a
century or more, and thus greatly increase the
possibility of a smooth transition to a new energy
paradigm, and a new self sustaining world
community. It did not happen.
Unavoidably, the human journey now includes a
painful passage through civilization collapse, Edward
9
O. Wilson’s “bottleneck”. When viewed from the
perspective of history, a century from now it will be
said that Nature set a trap for the human species, fossil
fuels (particularly oil) were the bait, humanity took
the bait with neither forethought nor hesitation, and
in the 21 st century human industrial civilization
imploded.
As frightening as the journey forward is in the year
2007, the human experiment is not over. Assuming
the positive feed back loops of climate change do not
lead to an uninhabitable planet, civilized humanity
does have a chance if we begin a change in direction
soon. This is not the time to abandon planet Earth
and all hope for our species. Although unquestionably
a close call, all may not be lost if we begin to acquire
the needed wisdom and societal discipline and apply
it to a post industrial civilization.
A first and essential step is to abandon all further
efforts to salvage a failed civilization, based on
exponential growth and a false and unsustainable
homocentrism. We humans are not and can never be
stewards of planet Earth. We possess neither the
ability to understand the complexities of our planetary
home nor the wisdom to make appropriate value
judgments on the needs of planetary ecosystems. We
also possess an exaggerated sense of our own
importance and are dangerously ignorant of our own
limitations. As stated by Ted Mosquin in May of 2006:
“What is required is an outward shift in focus from
homocentrism to ecocentrism, providing an
external ethical regulator for the human
enterprise. Without an ecocentric perspective that
anchors values and purposes in a greater reality
than our species, the resolution of political,
economic, and religious conflicts will be
10
impossible.”
Humanity has now passed a point of no return for its
first global and technologically advanced civilization.
It is now imperative that we begin the process of
giving serious thought to the alternatives to a
civilization in peril and approaching its final days. A
successful transition of “civilized humanity” through
the agonizing period of a civilization in its death
throes, and the creation of a viable and ecologically
sound successor human destiny on this planet,
requires in-depth preliminary planning now. It would
be a disservice to human and planetary posterity to
allow further delay in confronting the grim realities
of the almost certain demise of our present industrial
civilization. And it would be equally irresponsible to
postpone at least the conceptualization of a successor
society of sentient beings in this corner of the
universe, as well as to determine how we might best
traverse the difficult journey to a steady-state
successor civilization.
A series of reports during recent months, by
government national and international agencies as
well as by authoritative individuals, leaves no doubt
2
that peak oil is imminent. Like the growth of
population, particularly its paralleling the increase in
the consumption of oil and other fossil fuels,
population contraction can be expected to follow
what will be the irreversible decline of energy
availability. The process of population reduction,
through famine, disease and violence, can be expected
to occur conjointly with increasing world anarchy,
leading to a global economic and political
implosion. Complete collapse of the world’s first
global civilization, James Lovelock’s The Revenge
11
of Gaia, with world population reduced to possibly
one or two billion, will then be only a matter of time,
and the grim process may be largely completed in
this century.
While the precise timing of the above events, and the
many particulars of the civilization collapse process
(will weapons of mass destruction be used in the final
days?), are unknowable, it is probable that not all the
many diverse communities of civilized humankind
will be swallowed up by the unprecedented
conflagration. Geographic pockets of civilized
humanity may well survive, including as one example,
Sweden, perhaps the only advanced largely self
sufficient economy which has begun serious advanced
planning and action to prepare for a post carbon world.
Other communities, which may be favored by one or
more special advantages (e.g. the island communities
of New Zealand and Iceland), may also succeed in
crossing the chasm ahead.
To increase the number of surviving communities,
and lessen human pain, it is important to begin
preparations now for a post industrial age world. The
success rate of self sustaining communities will be
greatly improved if we begin now the planning and
development of practical solutions with respect to
energy descent, agriculture relocalization, local
community self sufficiency, and determining answers
to many practical questions related to the structures
and operating features of self sustaining communities
functioning in equilibrium with the natural world.
Hopefully, functioning survival communities can
begin operating well before the collapse. As
experience is gained by self sufficient communities,
each operating at low energy levels and with radically
altered economic and political cultures, additional
communities may be encouraged to follow.
Following the collapse of today’s industrial age
civilization, and with sufficient pre collapse
preparation, geographically limited self sufficient
5
communities may begin first steps leading to the
building of a sustainable steady-state global society.
It may even be possible that ten or more self sufficient
survival communities of civilized humanity will be
able to establish and maintain secure civil societies,
each geographically independent of the other, and
each retaining much of the acquired knowledge base
of the failed industrial age. Each would also possess
12
the capacity to support “machine civilization”, but
at a much reduced energy level. Critical elements in
determining the success of each self sufficient survival
community may include the extent of early
preparation, the social cohesion and political
sophistication of the community, the availability of
essential resources locally, and geographic location
with special emphasis on favorable climate and
security. Electronic communications between the
more advanced survival communities may well be
possible but frequent travel between them, because
of their probably wide dispersal throughout the world,
may be prohibitive.
In perhaps a century or two after the collapse one or
more of the survival communities may acquire the
capability of regular travel to other survival
communities, perhaps an important first step in the
gradual re emergence of a functioning world
community. The self sustaining survival communities
could each serve as a repository of the knowledge of
a failed civilization, not unlike the service provided
by Christian monasteries in providing a bridge
between the collapsed Roman Empire and the
emerging renaissance in Europe. Undoubtedly,
additional to the survival communities, other humans,
functioning at a level similar to primitive aboriginal
tribes prior to the 20th century, would also survive the
industrial age collapse.
The above word picture of humanity in a post
industrial civilization world is only one possible
scenario of the future. The way forward is
unknowable, and the above brief sketch represents
only one among many views on how post industrial
13
civilization may unfold. John Michael Greer in a
recent series of articles describes a future for our
species less hopeful than the above outline. He states
among other thoughts that “the end of the industrial
6
age will bring down the internet ... and play taps for
the mechanisms of mass communication.” Richard
14
Duncan states that “modern industrial society will
turn out to be a one-time only wave form — centred
on the interval between 1930 and 2030.” As Harrison
Brown also stated as early as 1954, “We are now living
in a phase of history which is destined never to be
15
repeated.” The end of “machine civilization” may
indeed be the end.
I prefer to be more hopeful, if for no other reason, to
abandon all hope will in itself contribute to the demise
of the human experiment. While I believe it is now
too late to prevent the collapse of our present industrial
civilization, there is still time to build a sustainable
and ecologically friendly home for civilized humanity
on planet Earth.
Andy Clarke
References
(1) A major report published in October 2007 by the UN
Environmental Programme states that the human
ecological footprint is on average 21.9 hectares per person,
while the Earth’s biological capacity is just 15.7 hectares
per person. These figures represent a 39.5% overshoot.
(2) In July, 2007 the International Energy Agency in Paris,
France stated that “World oil demand is likely to keep rising
at a rapid tempo and the development of new oil fields is
not expected to keep pace. Significant shortfalls are likely
to emerge within the next five years.” On October 22,
2007 The Energy Watch Group based in Germany stated
that “global oil production peaked in 2006 and will fall
by half as early as 2030.” It is widely accepted by Chris
Skrebowski and other authorities that there has been “no
significant gains” in world oil production since May 2005.
(3) A UN Environment Programme report published in
October 2007 states that 1.6 billion people live in countries
with absolute water scarcity. Aquifers are being depleted
in much of the world and several major rivers no longer
reach the ocean for part of the year.
(4) In an article titled “IS HUMANITY FATALLY
SUCCESSFUL?” by William E. Rees it is stated that “The
estimated current rate of species extinction varies from
. . . .continued on page 55
 From Dissent to Discourse
by Gail Stewart

Gail Stewart is an economist who trained at Queen’s University and the London School of Economics.
She served as a member of staff of the Economic Council and later worked as a policy consultant on a
wide range of public policy issues. During recent years she has taken a special interest in developing
fresh perspectives on seemingly intractable policy issues. Gail is a resident of Ottawa and a member of
CACOR.

Part I. Preface to a proposal for a multiplicity of autonomous initiatives

Background
Initially intended to be strictly a dissent to the editor’s approach to this issue of Proceedings, this article
became (and continues to be) a work in progress.

Learning of the editor’s plans for this issue of Proceedings, I asked if I might contribute a dissenting article.
My proposal was accepted. I was concerned that such a theme as “The Approaching Collapse of Industrial
Civilization” might dishearten rather than support us for the difficult passage ahead. (There are other ways of
describing the situation). I thought too it might speed a collapse. (Expectations always play into our decisions.)
Speaking of the future in factual rather than speculative or probabilistic terms also seemed unfortunate. More
generally, I have been concerned that a more robust human response to the challenges facing humankind
would come from addressing the problematique in terms of a future of possibilities1 rather than merely of
problems.

At the same time I recognized that humankind was
not responding to the messages the editor and other
messengers are putting before us as they try to focus
our attention on our looming difficulties. Focusing
on our failure to respond appropriately to the
messages led to a line of thought and a proposal I
hope might be constructive. Still developing in my
mind as I write, I will try to put it before you. (If
“dissent” were to be defined as “think differently,”
which it is, then I suppose this article might still
qualify.)
The line of thought begins with the proposition that
we need to perceive and feel our way toward a very
different way of thinking about our condition than
that to which we have become accustomed — the
receipt of prophecies of die-off from messengers of
doom, warnings which we then ignore or seek to deny.
This is simply not satisfactory. We need to invent (or
find) an explanation for our seeming incapacity to
take the messengers’ messages, to consider them fairly
and concert effective action in our human interest.
With a satisfactory and practical explanation, we may
then proceed toward taking such action. There is a
catch, however, but we will come to that.

7
My immediate objectives in this paper will be to
provide an appreciation of our current condition;
address the need for an acceptable explanation of it;
set out the conditions for an acceptable explanation;
propose what I hope will be seen as such an
explanation; elaborate on this explanation; make a
proposal in remedy of this situation based on this
explanation and indicate how the proposal might
immediately begin to be implemented.
Our response to the current situation
Our current situation doesn’t make sense. We know
that if something should threaten even our way of
life, let alone our survival, we would respond to
protect our interests. We would, and historically have,
mobilized our energies, focused our minds, drawn up
our resources, and done something about the situation.
Some would, and do, volunteer to protect us even
with their lives.
How is it then, in the face of the largest threat to our
lives and our future that has ever emerged, we seem
incapable of organized action? For fifty years or more
the warnings have been coming and we should be
grateful to the messengers. Yet most of us still seem
incapable of concerting even a personal response to
the news they bring us. We carry on as usual,
preoccupied with our day-to-day lives.
This is enough to drive to distraction any messenger
of doom, any ringer of the tocsin. Indeed some of
these have begun delivering their message at greater
volume, others with greater vehemence, while some
have resorted to using fear and speaking of a
catastrophic future as already fact, “the approaching
collapse.”
It is thus not for lack of warning that we are not
responding with action at anything like the scope and
scale of what seems needed. We face an increasingly
certain challenge from climate change, peak oil,
potential pandemics, environmental pollution,
invasive species, extinctions, over-fishing, food
shortages, social breakdown, possibly the end of
“civilization” as we have known it. (The list is long
and growing every day.)
8
A number of theories with respect to our lack of
effective response have been proposed. Some have
speculated specifically about how our brain functions
or about how our need for status drives us to seek
positional goods which in turn drive growth. Some
point to the historical collapse of civilizations before
us. Others have wondered about consciousness and
of course there are the frequently-identified villains
of institutional structure, faith-based dictates about
lifestyles, and the lack of political leadership. A catch-
22 theory suggests the messenger is ignored if he
warns of terrible disaster and also ignored, (even
laughed at with incredulity) if he proposes actions of
the scope he believes to be necessary.
The editor has written about what he called “this most
important question,”
“Why have we humans failed to address this
problem long before now (35 years ago Peccei
and King [co-founders of the Club of Rome]
indicated we had a decade to change course)
is a most important question. Some believe our
failure may be related largely to certain
cultural failings ..., but others... suspect that
our failure to adopt a prudent response in time
is in large measure related to our deeply
embedded biological and evolutionary
makeup.” 2
Meanwhile, Rome burns — or rather the climate
changes, oil production peaks and begins to dwindle
(there is a slight margin for error here with respect to
the exact date), and still we fiddle. Tomorrow we’ll
take the bus or walk rather than drive our car,
tomorrow we’ll turn down the thermostat, tomorrow
we’ll eat nothing not produced within 100 miles of
home and begin to grow our own food on our rooftops
and balconies. Tomorrow we’ll stop talking about
carbon emissions intensity and start talking about
carbon emissions limits. And tomorrow never, or only
very slowly, comes. Day after day passes and we go
on as usual. And still the Union of Concerned
Scientists, Al Gore, George Monbiot, Tim Flannery
and, closer to home, Buzz Nixon, Andy Clarke, David
Delaney and others issue their warnings as did others
before them (Jack Vallentyne comes to mind.)
Accompanying their dire predictions of change there
is now a note of despair that humankind will ever
change its ways, dampen its lifestyle demands on the
environment, contain its own numbers, and take the
path of prudence and precaution toward sustainability.
This note of despair seems now itself to be
engendering feedback, feedback exacerbated by the
very tone of the prophets’ pronouncements. The tone,
of profound pessimism and a growing conviction that
humankind will not act in time to save itself — or at
least many of its members — is now making it all the
more likely that humankind will not respond
effectively to the challenge facing it. Rather than
mobilizing energies such a tone becomes
overwhelming, disempowering. Those who are able
may engage in “every man for himself” (sauve qui
peut) behaviour, but many, including many young
people, may simply feel helpless.
“More and more people are engaged in writing
about the impending decline and fall of
civilization, due to a number of causes
including Climate Change. ...There is a real
danger that if you convince many people that
doomsday is approaching some will react in
extreme ways that could hasten its
arrival. There is also a risk of despair among
the impressionable young.... ...This is a topic
for urgent discussion”. Dr. Rennie Whitehead
Others too have been concerned: “And we who can
see it have the moral obligation to warn everyone we
meet. Warn them that they are headed for die-off.
Frighten them. But frighten them gently.” (John
Siman, in the May 2007 issue of Proceedings,
speaking of “the abyss of our own creation”)
Need for a constructive hypothesis
It seems true that there is much in our genetic makeup,
much in our brain functioning, much in our habits
and social practices, much even in our technology
that carries us forward with our current momentum
and on our current trajectory. Nonetheless there is
also much to indicate that we can change and change
profoundly in response to changing circumstances.
Humans are not without intelligence. Indeed
humankind’s adaptability and sheer intransigence are
among the great assets in the current situation.
Suggesting then that we have an “inability” to change
our ways would be to give up the game on the basis
of a feeble excuse.
What we seem to be waiting for is a reason to declare
ourselves “stuck” and so be able to move on, on a
different trajectory — a trajectory framed, preferably,
on hope and fellow-feeling, not on fear and ill-will.
So we need a persuasive hypothesis to explain the
failure of the Club of Rome to persuade the world,
thirty-five years ago, to limit growth, followed by the
continuing failure of humankind to move effectively
to do so in the face of dire and increasingly plausible
predictions about what is going to happen to millions
if not billions of us in the not-so-distant future when
the effects of “living on our (planetary) capital”
become apparent.
We need this hypothesis and we need it to be
persuasive so that it can be used as the reason for
humankind not having responded effectively to the
messages we have been receiving and begun seriously
to change our ways — in effect we need it in order to
break the inertia in our response to the messages we
are hearing. The Gordian knot, so often spoken of in
connection with the intertwined problems comprising
the problematique, is not so much in those problems
as in our intertwined human relationships. And these
do not need to be cut — they need to be civilly re-
crocheted.
In short, it is less important that the hypothesis prove
to be “true” or that we wait for its proof than that it
have mobilizing plausibility, “truthiness.” Even if
true, some hypotheses would have no mobilizing
capacity.
This still-unidentified impediment to our responding
effectively to the challenges before us — to
overcoming the current dissonance between the
messages we are receiving and the way we are
responding — must also, of course, be actionable.
The impediment must be something we can change.
This then is the catch. We may need to construct the
9
hypothesis in such a way as to produce the results we
need. If such a hypothesis can’t be “discovered” then
it might perhaps be invented so it can be discovered.
A fine dilemma indeed!
Some of the current speculations about impediments
have been noted above. I hope here to add to their
number an additional hypothesized “impediment,”
one that (as it happens?) can be congenially removed.
Where to begin? Perhaps a little ground-clearing
might be useful.
What are the characteristics of the needed
hypothesis?
Without some satisfactorily plausible hypothesis of
why we are delaying our response to the bad news
we are receiving almost daily, it is highly likely that
we will continue to delay, and without setting out
some criteria of necessary conditions for such a
hypothesis, we might not adequately critique its
potential usefulness to us. (The form and narration
of what is happening and why we are lagging in
response needs to be carefully constructed if it is to
stimulate action on the impediment and lead to action
on the problematique.)
We need a theory, rich in implications, to explain what
is clearly a complex phenomenon having many
aspects. Also I think proceeding by elimination may
in the end save time. (I don’t want to try the reader’s
patience so have confined to an endnote some of the
characteristics that seem to me to be non-starters, and
invite additions to them.)3
In addition, the hypothesis must clearly conjure with
the problematique, i.e., have clear application to the
problematique and to the lag in humankind’s initiation
of an effective response to this complex set of
problems. And for this purpose the problematique
must be seen and addressed in its context.
The problematique in context
Peccei, writing in the 1960’s spoke of the
problematique:
10
“Mankind and his environment constitute an
integrated macrosystem, the extremely
complex world system, which results from the
aggregation of a very great number and variety
of interacting systems and subsystems. The
different societies, problems and problem
families are systems embedded in larg er
systems in turn encompassed by the world
system. All these systems continuously interact
with one another, in highly dynamic, multi-
influence relationships. Adequate study of
large problems having paramount importance
for man’s future can be made only in the
context of this planetary framework.”
The inference must be that the large problems we face
today are in multi-influence relationships and need
to be addressed in planetary context.
So it is with the problematique and the world. The
problematique needs to be kept in context (e.g., “a
planetary framework) so that it does not occupy
conceptual space in our minds such that it stretches
to the horizons of our vision. The planet and the
problematique are quite different matters. (A current
description of the problematique is on the website of
the Club of Rome.)4 The planet is not a part of the
problematique nor, being products of it are we. (It is
our behaviour that is at issue.) The planet is much
larger than the problematique and subsumes it. We
can study the planet without reference to the
problematique, although needing to keep in mind that
it is we, ourselves products of the planet and having
limited capacities, who are doing the studying.
Indeed, it is through keeping in mind that the
problematique is a humanly invented concept and that
it consists only of “large [and connected] problems
having paramount importance for man’s future” we
may be better enabled to understand the emergence
of the concept and its uses and possible abuses and
thus to address it more effectively. To lose the context
of the problematique or to allow it to fall away is to
risk losing an appreciation of our remarkable situation
on Planet Earth, the astonishing emergence, evolution
and resilience of life on Earth and the complexity of
its processes and, therefore, inadvertently to
discourage hope and thus effective action. It is also
to lose the leverage of the planet’s own resilience.5
A hypothesis concerning our delay in
Responding to the problematique
Having now set out some conditions delimiting the
possibilities for the hypothesis (and in doing so set
the hurdles high for any proposed explanation) and
having now set out the need for the problematique
itself to be seen and kept in context, I would like to
offer a candidate hypothesis. (I leave it to the reader
to decide whether it was bespoke!)
A bit like Canada, it may work better in practice than
in theory, leaving theory “running to catch up.”
Should it survive critical examination, perhaps we
might elaborate and develop it, experimenting with
it and discussing it further in various forums. To the
extent that it might be original, I can only say I haven’t
seen it before as an explanation of our seeming
incapacity to respond appropriately to the news of
our condition on the planet but, if it is different, it
nonetheless is rooted in and builds on the work of
many people.6
My hypothesis, with respect to our failure to be
preparing with due speed to protect and advance the
human possibility against the anticipated major
changes in the human situation on the planet is not
that we are incapable, as determined by our genetic
inheritance, our human history, or our social practices.
It is that we are not talking together in the way that is
needed.
If we can’t talk together in a satisfactory way, we
can’t concert actions of the kinds needed to address
the problematique.
Having developed and become dependent on
discourse to organize much of our human activity,
we need to look to our practices of discourse for the
impediment to action.
My hypothesis is that it is our practices of discourse
that are forming the impediment to addressing the
global problematique.
The problem is, for good reason, particularly acute
in the developed countries.
In sum, the Gordian knot, so often spoken of in
connection with the intertwined problems comprising
the problematique, may not much in those problems
as in our intertwined human relationships. And these
do not need to be cut — they need to be re-crocheted,
in goodwill, and in discourse — conversation —
toward a new and broader sharing of our experience,
hopes and concerns as humans on the planet.
Conversations with each other that help us integrate
our experience, share our reflections on it, learn from
these and, enriched by knowledge, develop our
potentials and our responses to the immense challenge
we are facing. This experiential discourse forms the
fulcrum from which the problematique can be brought
to awareness and early action leveraged.
Part II. Proposal: Conversations around
and about and beyond the Problematique
— toward a future of possibility
Background
It seems that societies are influenced in many ways
by their major preoccupations. These preoccupations
give shape to their activities, to the status they give
to those who pursue various occupations, indeed to
the shaping of their cultures and even to their forums
and what is talked about and how it is talked about.
For example, if the influence of religion is the most
significant element in some societies, the role of the
clergy likely carries status and faith enters deeply into
the structure of the forums and the discourses of the
society. In other societies survival may be a main
preoccupation, the role of hunter have status, and the
needs and results of the hunt give shape to survival-
oriented discourse.
In today’s “Westernized” (developed) societies and
those emulating them, it seems that the influence of
reason and science on public affairs is conspicuous
and growing. Problem-solving and analysis are
societal preoccupations and certified “specialists”
have status relative to generalists. “Higher” education
is pursued in increasingly specific fields. It might even
11
be suggested that the highly productive adversary
proceedings of scientific endeavour, suited to the
pursuit of truth more than the fostering of human
development and community, have become the
predominant methodology in parliament, the courts,
the education system and the marketplace (including
the labour market). Institutions and projects,
government departments and agencies, echoing the
“other things being equal assumptions” (ceterus
paribus) underpinning pursuit of science, have terms
of reference which are often deliberately narrow in
focus. This is not deemed extraordinary even though
subsequent coordination between different
disciplines, different institutions and different
activities may become increasingly difficult.
Members of these societies report that their lives, and
public affairs, are lived or pursued in “fragments.”
They also report that chances to talk seriously together
and in a comprehensive way about what is happening
(“the big picture”) are rare and at the margins of public
affairs.
At the same time these societies are deep with
specialized “knowledge.” This knowledge, gained
though scientific endeavour and technologies which
have vastly extended the human senses and capacities,
have contributed greatly to human well-being. Also,
it is due to the sciences that an immense and looming
pattern of danger (an “end of the frontier”
phenomenon) which is facing not only these societies
but all humankind is now being revealed.
Implications
The influence of reason and science on the discursive
practices of developed societies may thus provide a
clue as to why it is so difficult to have public attention
focus on the complex of emerging problems, let alone
concert a response.
In the developed societies, our current mode of talking
about the problematique seems to consist of
addressing particular elements or aspects of it without
consistently acknowledging their interconnectedness
with other issues, or doing so only pro forma. This
mode of communication underweights the
connections among the issues and among us as
persons, societies and cultures. Beyond this, it
12
discourages action by exacerbating the free rider
problem. (Unless the issues have been addressed in
an integrated manner, anyone initiating their own
action on a particular issue cannot be sure it will not
be taken advantage, to the initiator’s disadvantage,
by others concerned with others issues.) Narrow
frameworks in an interconnected situation do not
facilitate effective action on broad issues without
constantly refreshed common purpose.
Further, we address each other about the issues but
typically don’t converse. We are thus not doing very
well in talking with each other, whether in our families
and schools, our workplaces and places of worship
and entertainment, within and among our corporations
and governments, among professions and disciplines
and among peoples and civilizations globally and
through our various media. We have few channels
and forums for sharing the wisdom of our experience
with each other. We thus can’t concert actions at the
various levels and scales and of the various kinds
which are now needed. (While the internet does seem
to be helping it also fragments.)
Thus, in societies which have become deeply engaged
in the practice of reason and science there appears to
be
• increasing specialization in their realms of
discourse and institutional structures
• a loss of flexibility and openness to other ways
of thinking in their institutional vocabulary and
habits of communication,
• a gradual decline in and paucity of forums and
channels for the broader, integrative, more
personally resonant and historically rooted
speech and discourse of human experience and
• a role of reason and science that, rather than
constituting “advice” to more broadly-based
policy considerations, is becoming increasingly
dictatorial of procedure and practices, in many
cases going well beyond what prudence,
common sense, or human values and dignity
would suggest.
None of this is to devalue or in any way discourage
the application of reason and science and their
remarkable capacities of discovery and invention.
However, where they
• have salient image in a society and
• have affected its styles and channels of discourse
to the point where these are deeply specialized,
where the people have objectified themselves,
and where little substantive broad-based public
discourse remains,
it appears difficult if not impossible for such societies
to concert integrated strategies and respond in a timely
and adequately diversified fashion to broad-based
challenges involving interconnected issues.
The Proposal
This impoverishment of discourse in societies highly
influenced by science and reason has serious effects
on the global response to this complex of emerging
problems on the planet (called the “problematique”).
These are the dominant societies in the world at the
present time and without their active participation
little can be done.
Fortunately, when the nature of institutional
discourse is revealed as the problem, a responsible
global citizenry, supported by a few institutions
having unusually broad-based mandates, may come
to the fore and foster a broader-based and more
resilient discourse in which
• human memory, ethics, imagination, intuition,
common sense and reason could all play their
roles
• the human situation on the planet be appreciated
for the extraordinary phenomenon it is,
• the problematique be considered in that context
• the ramifications for the short and longer term
human future be addressed in an integrated way,
• the resources of relevant knowledge be sought
out
• effective strategies for humankind to adapt to,
mitigate and learn from its situation be
developed
• our vast common interest in each others’ well-
being become more readily apparent
An essential element in this initiative would be the
rapid enfranchisement and inclusion of participants
from societies which have not been so heavily
influenced by science and rationality in order to gain,
among other things, the benefit of their habits and
practices of discourse.
Thus the worst effects of unbalanced discourse might
be averted, although not before many may be
negatively affected from our failure to identify at an
early stage this inadvertent side-effects on societies of
the intense practice of science and reason, or indeed
the side-effects from the intense practice of any
singular activity.
Part 3. Conclusion
It thus appears that there may be an interesting reason
that could be proposed for the lack of integrating
experiential communication among us and — best
news of all — a congenial and potentially effective
and relatively immediately available remedy.
That remedy emerging, then I think we might do much
better in addressing the massive changes required to
negotiate successfully the challenging passage in
human affairs which faces us.
Endnotes
1
Beaubien, Doubleday, Roberts-Pichette,
Wojciechowski, Report to CACOR: A Future of
Possibility
2
Personal correspondence, October 26, 2007
3
This needed (or re-discovered) emergent theory cannot
be expressed in merely any one of the following forms
although they may each help to illuminate it:
• an individual discipline (disciplines are by
definition too narrowly framed:— it must be
supra-disciplinary)
• faith-based terms (it must include but subsume
the differences among existing faiths)
• government policy (government alone is neither
the problem nor the answer)
• private sector activity, whether corporate (for
profit) or not-for-profit (like government, no
sector along is either the problem or the answer)
• an “ecocentric” vision (which risks dismissing
some of humankind’s most interesting capacities
and locates us simply among the animal
species.(it is these interesting and often
ephemeral capacities, of imagination,
ratiocination, trust, etc., that may just be the ones
to help us address the problematique)
13

Nor can the hypothesis
• be race-based, or gender-based, or ethnicity-
based, or age-based, or based on mental and
physical capacities, i.e., it must be inclusive of all
persons, including persons who are differently-
abled. (We do not deny differently-abled persons
the franchise — why should they be excluded
when we think about the future?)
• Vilify of any group, e.g. for consumption habits,
reproductive practices, etc.
• be disrespectful of individual dignity, and hence
of human rights and responsibilities
• be disruptive of economic and political
commitments (the trust relationships that are the
foundation of the marketplace must be
maintained, even through volatility)
Also, clearly, explanations having sufficient scope,
substance and subtlety must not merely be
• correlations to which are ascribed causal
properties
• closed systems,
• static equilibrium models,
• scenarios of divine intervention through the “deus
ex machina” of new but currently non-feasible
technology or other wishful thinking
• market-based prescriptions which ignore the
reality that any market economy has its essential
foundations in non-monetized and voluntary
activity,
• approaches which treat humans as impersonal
units rather than as each indefinable, “ineffable,”
• approaches which treat the human species as
merely one among a number of species through
failure to recognize its distinctive qualities of
brain development, cultures, etc.
• simple psychological theories about individuals
without reference to their environment
• Simple geo-physio-bio assumptions about the
environment without reference to its human
participants
• simple theories about evolution suggesting that
because previous human civilizations have
crashed we too will crash.
14
4
“World Problematique’ is a concept created by the
Club of Rome to describe the set of the crucial problems
– political, social, economic, technological,
environmental, psychological and cultural - facing
humanity.
The complexity of the world problematique lies in the
high level of mutual interdependence of all these
problems on the one hand, and in the long time it often
takes until the impact of action and reaction in this
complex system becomes visible.”
http://www.clubofrome.org/about/
world_problematique.php Accessed 071029
It is notable too that in the description of the
problematique offered on the Club of Rome website, the
context has fallen away, unlike in the clear delineation
of Peccei, who spoke carefully of “large” problems
having “paramount importance” for “man’s future” and
the need for their study to be made only “in the “context
of this [sic] planetary framework.”
5
This was another reason for my concern with the
proposal for this issue of Proceedings. Our situation was
not presented in its wider, non-problematic, context of
the planet but was presented in such a way as to confine
our attention to “Industrial Civilization.” This of course
is typical of our Western culture, which has been
accused of being addicted to proceeding by problem-
solving rather than maintaining a broader non-problem-
centred approach. (The point is illustrated by the
difference in looking at and talking with “the poor” and
looking at and talking with people who are poor (or ill,
or old — any of the categories that sometimes intercede
and blinker our perceptions in our dealings with each
other.) “Industrial Civilization” does not constitute even
our human world but a phase of it, a phase of it now
moving toward a likely abrupt phase transformation.
6
Far too many, unfortunately, to thank in this context
but I am nonetheless grateful to them.
 Facing The Future
by C.R. (Buzz) Nixon

At the 5 November, 2007 luncheon of the Canadian Association For The Club of Rome, Andy Clarke discussed
some startling developments that raise serious concern about the immediate future facing our civilization. I
then added to those concerns the perceptions that have gradually become a part of my own appreciation of
“Facing The Future”.

Andy had prepared notes covering the most recent
information on the state of the Peak Oil issue, along
with frightening news about the exceedingly rapid
disappearance of Arctic ice cover (see page 18). Andy
discussed the implications of this information with
respect to both impending oil shortages as well as
more rapid and more severe global heating than had
been forecast prior to the summer of 2007.
My own perception of “Facing The Future” began
with my appreciation of the current predicament
facing our civilization as stated in my paper “Values,
Myths, Beliefs, Attitudes and Behaviour Contributing
to the Planet’s Overshoot Predicament” published in
the Proceedings, Series 3 Number 8 in May 2006.
• We humans are laying waste to the planet;
in so doing we are destroying the
sustainability of the ecosphere and possibly
the survival of Homo sapiens.
• We are consuming renewable resources
(water, forests and fisheries) faster than
they can be renewed.
at a prodigious rate to the point where, due
to field exhaustion, the growing demand
will exceed production.
• Indirectly we are destroying species at
rates far in excess of natural causes.
• And, we are creating wastes faster than
they can be either absorbed or recycled by
the ecosphere.
My perception of our planet’s predicament may seem
to be gloomy and foreboding. But, it is based on what
I believe has happened over the past 40 years to the
following conditions of:
• deforestation,
• depletion of fisheries,
• reduction in food production per capita,
• exacerbated by the diversion of food growing
capability to the production of biofuels,
• desertification,
• water scarcity,
• pollution of air, water, and land, and,
• continuing growth in world population.

• We are destroying the agricultural
capability of the planet by converting farm
land to non productive use.
• We are consuming non-renewable
resources, particularly oil and natural gas,
While I have seen some short term or limited
improvements, in the aggregate, trends over the last
40 years to support the sustainability of life on this
planet have been negative.
The fact that these deteriorating conditions could

15
persist, although well known and chronicled, suggest
to me that there is an innate human characteristic that
has led to irrational human behaviour, including a
readiness to ignore the obvious and act against the
long term human interest. This perception prompted
my reading about the evolution of the human brain. I
have concluded that, while we are now attempting to
apply our brains to cope with a complex and fast
moving life, the human brain did not evolve under
such circumstances, and therefore does not adequately
address the problem solving, foresight and planning
required to redress the problems of our industrialized,
energy intensive, growth oriented civilization. My
paper on this subject was published in 2002,
Proceedings Series 3 Number 4.
My appreciation of the evolution of our brain has also
reinforced an impression I have had for several years;
many of the problems confronting mankind have
arisen from our values, attitudes, myths and behaviour
(our traits) as discussed in my paper noted above.
My gloomy and foreboding perception of the physical
dimension of our predicament that I mentioned earlier,
is reinforced by my conclusion that our brain has not
evolved with the ability to easily and effectively
address the planet’s predicament. Moreover, our traits
constitute huge barriers or obstacles that must be
overcome or set aside if we expect to devise policies
or programs that have any hope in effectively
redressing our predicament. One simply cannot
correct a problem while retaining the same set of traits
that were the cause of the problem.
On this last point concerning our traits, the Executive
Committee (including Aurelio Peccei and Alexander
King) of the Club of Rome agreed that:
“We are convinced that realization of the
quantitative restraints of the world
environment and of the tragic consequences
of an overshoot is essential to the initiation of
new forms of thinking that will lead to a
fundamental revision of human behaviour
and, by implication, of the entire fabric of
present day society.”
16
I have added the emphasis because a full appreciation
of those words is an absolute must. If one is not
convinced of the restraints and the tragic
consequences then one will not accept the imperative
of setting aside conventional wisdom, ignoring or
overriding our traits, and thinking “outside the box”
to devise programs and policies that would be
effective in “Facing The Future”.
Before presenting my perspective of “Facing The
Future”, I will quote how others have assessed our
predicament and future.
In his 1953 book “The Challenge of Man’s Future”,
Harrison Brown said:
“If machine civilization, which thus far has created
more problems than it has solved, disintegrates,
humanity as a whole will revert to a way of life
not unlike that which existed in Europe in the
seventeenth century or that which exists in China
today (1953) . ...Whether or not it survives
depends on whether or not man is able to recognize
the problems that have been created, anticipate
the problems that will confront him in the future,
and devise solutions that can be embraced by
society as a whole. The problems that can be
recognized at present are enormous, and great
intelligence, vision, and courage are required for
their solution. In the light of what we know of the
nature of man, it would appear that the
possibilities of solution are remote.”
The first conclusion of the authors of “The Limits To
Growth” in 1972 was:
“If the present growth trends in world population,
industrialization, pollution, food production, and
resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits
to growth on this planet will be reached sometime
within the next one hundred years. The probable
result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable
decline in both population and industrial
capacity.”
Aurelio Peccei, one of the cofounders of The Club of
Rome, said in 1973:
 “If man cannot check the direction of his hectic
march forward and bludgeoning of nature,
everything human will be plunged dramatically
into a state of crisis. World resources will shrink,
creating further problems in the procurement of
raw materials and energy and pitting peoples and
nations one against the other in a life-and-death
struggle to obtain them.”
The cover of “Beyond the Limits”, the 1992 twenty
year sequel to “The Limits To Growth” contains the
comment:
“The authors show that the world has already
overshot some of its limits, and if present trends
remain unchanged, we face virtually certain
prospect of a global economic collapse in the next
century.”
The authors of these four quotes, which span more
than 50 years, all foresaw a collapse of civilization
unless there were fundamental, profound changes in
the way humans address their problems. My own
perception of impending collapse is similar to these
four. But, with an additional strong conviction,
because of the type of brain that evolution has given
us, coupled with the collection of traits that we have
developed, we seem unable as collective societies to
make the type of changes that could be effective in
averting the collapse of our civilization.
Whereas Harrison Brown said: “it would appear that
the possibilities of solution are remote.” I have
concluded that there are essentially no possibilities
of solution except for radical changes that are
completely outside the conventional wisdom; changes
that would be contrary to some of our traits. Most
importantly, to be effective in averting collapse, the
changes would have to be focused on ending our
culture of unrelenting growth which I believe is the
root cause of the predicament of our civilization.
We face in the immediate future, particularly persons
living in industrialized nations, two monsters in the
form of Peak Oil and severe climate change
approaching more rapidly than forecast. Of the two,
more rapid and severe climate change is the more
foreboding because we may well face runaway global
heating (that could occur regardless of our efforts to
reduce the emission of greenhouse gases) due to the
positive feedback or forcing factors initiated by
temperature increase. These include a huge methane
release from the melting of permafrost, massive CO2
release from the decaying of the boreal and equatorial
forests should die-off occur during initial global
heating, and other forcing factors. While there are
negative feedback or stabilizing factors for global
heating, the ones I am aware of are insignificant
compared to the potential positive feedback forcing
factors.
I will leave for others or another occasion the
discussion of how a collapse of our civilization might
unfold, and what may be credible conditions
following the final collapse, including the number, if
any, of human survivors.
I can assure you that neither Andy nor I have enjoyed
making this presentation, but we both felt a moral
obligation to make our CACOR friends aware of our
perception of “Facing The Future”.
Note
With respect to the Peak Oil issue, John Walsh added
to Andy’s comments, noting that 42% of CO 2
emissions come from burning oil, 90% of oil
consumption is used for transportation, and 70% in a
developed country is consumed for transportation
purposes. He also stated that in the USA 78% of
commuters drive 64.5 kms or less to work. Therefore
one way to face up to shrinking oil supply would be
to rapidly change to hybrid cars because adequate
batteries are now available and hybrids could be
plugged in when not in use.
For additional information on Plug-In Electric
Vehicles and their electric energy requirements refer
to the article by John Walsh on page 40 of this issue
of Proceedings.
17
 The big melt:
lessons from the Arctic summer of 2007
The Arctic sea ice is disintegrating “100 years ahead of schedule”, having dropped 22% this year
below the previous minimum low, and it may completely disappear as early as the northern summer
of 2013. This is far beyond the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and is
an example of global warming impacts happening at lower temperature increases and more quickly
than projected. What are the lessons from the Arctic summer of 2007?

Executive summary
• Climate change impacts are happening at lower temperature increases and more quickly than
projected.
• The Arctic’s floating sea ice is headed towards rapid summer disintegration as early as 2013, a
century ahead of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections.
• The rapid loss of Arctic sea ice will speed up the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet, and
a rise in sea levels by even as much as 5 metres by the turn of this century is possible.
• The Antarctic ice shelf reacts far more sensitively to warming temperatures than previously
believed.
• Long-term climate sensitivity (including “slow” feedbacks such as carbon cycle feedbacks
which are starting to operate) may be double the IPCC standard.
• A doubling of climate sensitivity would mean we passed the widely accepted 2°C threshold of
“dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate four decades ago, and would require
us to find the means to engineer a rapid drawdown of current atmospheric greenhouse gas.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are now growing more rapidly than “business-as-usual”, the
most pessimistic of the IPCC scenarios.
• Temperatures are now within !1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years.
• We must choose targets and take actions that can actually solve the problem in a timely manner.
• The object of policy-relevant advice must be to avoid unacceptable outcomes and seemingly
extreme or alarming possibilities, not to determine just the apparently most likely outcome.
• The 2°C warming cap is a political compromise; with the speed of change now in the climate
system and the positive feedbacks that 2°C will trigger, it looms for perhaps billions of people
and millions of species as a death sentence.
• To allow the reestablishment and long-term security of the Arctic summer sea ice it is likely to
be necessary to bring global warming back to a level at or below 0.5°C (a long-term precautionary
warming cap) and for the level of atmospheric greenhouse gases at equilibrium to be brought
down to or below a long-term precautionary cap of 320 ppm CO2e.
• The IPCC suffers from a scientific reticence and in many key areas the IPCC process has been
so deficient as to be an unreliable and dangerously misleading basis for policy-making.

—by David Spratt, CarbonEquity

18
 Some Reflections on Human Rationality
(or the Lack of It) and the Way Ahead

by J. Anthony Cassils

J. Anthony (Tony) Cassils has a background in law and economics. He served in senior positions
with the Ontario government, including Program Executive in Cabinet Office where he attended
Cabinet meetings for seven years, and in the head office, corporate planning of The Royal Bank
of Canada where he undertook the global outlook identifying early signs of change. A consistent
concern throughout his career has been the destruction by humans of the living Earth, and he
has written many articles pertaining to sustainability and population.

Introduction
In recent decades, an increasing number of scientists and scholars have assembled the best information about
the state of the environment and identified serious trends which need to be altered to avoid crises. They have
presented this information to governments, international agencies and to the general public with arguments
well-supported by facts. In short, they have done their best to be rational. Despite their efforts, the human
burden on the living Earth has grown exponentially in the past fifty years. For example, global population
has more than doubled and industrial production has increased four to five times. Many of the problems
have become worse. If human beings were rational, they would have adjusted their behaviour by now and
environmental issues would be waning rather than waxing. Some other forces could be at work. Perhaps the
warnings of the consequences of continued environmental decline have not been convincing or it may be that
human beings are not led much by reason but primarily by instincts, drives and emotions.

This paper will touch on the changing perception of human rationality, the possible role of science as saviour,
and some implications for government, leading to some conclusions and suggestions for the way ahead.

The Changing Perception of Human

Rationality
There are many pitfalls in a discussion of rationality
and reason, because over time the words have been
subject to many different interpretations. The words
are closely linked to how humans see themselves (as
homo sapiens) relative to other life forms. A few
centuries ago, some maintained that since human
beings were created in the image of God, they were
therefore capable of perfect rationality. Science has
whittled away at human grandiosity in recent
centuries. Neurology and cognitive psychology have
advanced to the point where John Gray can state the
following in Straw Dogs:
“If we do not act in the way we think we do,
the reason is partly to do with the bandwidth
of consciousness — its ability to transmit
information measured in terms of bits per
second. This is much too narrow to be able to
register the information we routinely receive
and act on. As organisms active in the world,
we process perhaps 14 million bits of
information per second. The bandwidth of
consciousness is around eighteen bits. This
means that we have conscious access to about
a millionth of the information we daily use to
survive.” 1

19
John Gray is Professor of European thought at the
London School of Economics and this rather startling
statement requires some exploration. In a footnote,
Gray attributes this insight to Vincent Deary who is a
cognitive behavioural therapist based in London,
England. In the second half of the twentieth century,
cognitive psychologists calculated the amount of
information per second relayed to the human brain
by the sensory preceptors of the human body and
contrasted that with the bandwidth of consciousness.
In 1965, Dietrich Trincker, a German physiologist,
provided a useful rule of thumb that a million times
more bits of information enters the human brain than
it perceives consciously.2
To a casual reader this information suggests that
human behaviour is much more programmed than
previously thought. This raises a shocking question
for environmental activists as to whether the
accelerating trend of environmental destruction
caused by the sum of human actions can be stopped
by studies put forward by well-intentioned people
who set out information and reach conclusions in a
reasoned, logical manner? The record over the past
fifty years has not been encouraging as the growth of
environmental activism has been more than matched
by economic expansion and environmental
deterioration.
This narrow bandwidth of consciousness counters the
intuitive perception of consciousness as something
vast and all-inclusive. Instead, it can be described as
similar to the beam of a flashlight in a cave with the
attention focussed wherever the beam of light is
pointed. Much information remains in the shadow
which is the source of surprises, often severe. For
example, the rapid economic expansion of China has
become the subject of much attention and admiration.
Many investors flock to the Chinese stock markets to
participate in this miracle. However, the growth
comes at considerable environmental costs such as.
the loss of agricultural land, desertification, dropping
water tables under major cities, and extreme air and
water pollution. 3 The economic growth is short-term.
It is very unlikely that it can be sustained. Yet in the
heat of current excitement, insufficient consideration
is given to risks.
20
Consciousness assembles the bits of information
slowly but the map it creates is never a fully-accurate
reflection of the world.4 However, we humans have
a propensity to believe in our mental frameworks and
disciplines since they give us confidence and actively
repress fears of mortality and the vulnerability of
human existence. Incorrect mental maps can be
dangerous. For example, economic theory gives the
illusion that imbalances will be corrected by the
market forces, but the calculation of gross domestic
product does not price correctly the goods and
services provided by the environment leading to
excessive use and abuses.
In philosophy, reason is defined as the ability to form
and operate upon concepts in abstraction in
accordance with rationality and logic—terms with
which reason shares heritage. Reason, like
consciousness with which it is also intimately
connected, has traditionally been claimed as distinctly
human, and not to be found elsewhere in the animal
world. However, recent studies in this area show that,
in lower levels, animals are capable of some types of
thinking similar to that of humans.5 Moreover, some
of the most basic features of brains can be found in
bacteria because even the simplest motile organisms
must solve the problem of locating resources and
avoiding toxins in a variable environment.6
The relatively narrow bandwidth of consciousness
brings into question the extent to which human
behaviour is guided by rationality since rationality
and consciousness are intimately connected. The
nature of consciousness has become the subject of
intense exchanges primarily among cognitive
scientists on one side and “philosophers of
consciousness” on the other. Much of the discussion
has related to the “hard problem” of consciousness –
to fully explain phenomenal consciousness, the
subjective, qualitative dimension of our mental lives
— in physicalistically respectable terms.7
Some philosophers observe that cognitive
psychologists describe certain human functions in
terms of the physiology of human behaviour but do
not explain human conduct. They question the value
of explaining human action as a series of hyper-
complex and continuous series of branching neuronal
events as the “cause” of an act such as the raising of
an arm. In between the neuronal stimuli and the
movement is an act of will.8 They maintain that
human consciousness is more than the sum of discrete
phenomena, such as: the ability to discriminate,
categorize, and react to environmental stimuli; the
integration of information by a cognitive system; and,
the reportability of mental states. The really hard
problem of consciousness is the problem of the
subjective aspect of experience, what it is like to be a
conscious organism. They counter the implications
of the narrow bandwidth of consciousness by
explaining it positively as the ability of the brain to
focus on what is important at the time and discard
information that is not immediately relevant. They
suggest that although there may be limits to what
consciousness can assimilate at any one moment, the
flow of what proceeds into consciousness is limited
only by the scope of imagination.
Some scientists consider that the amount of discussion
about consciousness has reached absurd proportions
compared to the amount of relevant experimentation.9
In time, some cognitive scientists hope to be able to
explain consciousness objectively based on
experiments, while recognizing that understanding
subjective experience may be beyond the realm of
science and more the subject of philosophy and ethics.
However, many scientists and philosophers agree that
it is worthwhile to explore subjective consciousness
for the following reasons:
“Consciousness is at the very core of what we
are, both individually and as a species. The
fact that it seems to be so hard to understand
consciousness as a part of the natural order
of things, especially when we do not appear
to have any such difficulty when it comes to
most other phenomena, seems deeply
troubling, not just intellectually, but also
morally. It has often been observed that the
appearance of a chasm between us and nature
— e.g., a sense that we are somehow ‘special’
and in some way not bound by the principles
that govern the behaviour of the world around
us — can lead to all sorts of destructive (or
otherwise undesirable) consequences in how
we deal with our environments, non-human
creatures, and even our own bodies and those
of other humans. Perhaps a solution to the
philosophical hard problem would bring with
is a foundation for making progress in better
handling these issues.”10
The preceding paragraphs give a sense of the debate
about the nature of consciousness that will take many
years to resolve or may not be resolved at all. Time
is short. For this paper, a more urgent question is:
How can human will and consciousness be focused
on the diminution and possible resolution of severe
environmental threats?
Past behaviour does not augur well for a positive
resolution. The mere fact that human population has
grown from an estimated 5 – 10 million ten thousand
years ago to about 6.7 billion in late 2007 implies
that something other than reason is at work.
We may be better at rationalizing our behaviour after
the fact than in using reason beforehand. It is in the
nature of life forms on Earth to expand into any short-
term opportunity. Since humans have been formed
by the life process on Earth and are made up of the
cells and bacteria that are the building blocks of all
life, is it reasonable to expect that humans would
behave differently from other life forms of which they
are comprised and on which they depend? The history
of the use of petroleum is a case in point. For the
past one hundred and fifty years, the emphasis has
been on using up this valuable but limited resource
as quickly as possible in the belief that continuous
economic growth is good even though this is
impossible over the long-term on a finite planet. A
study of economic history reveals that humans have
a propensity to live on the edge at the limits of supplies
of resources and administrative capacity making us
vulnerable to environmental variation because we do
not leave a margin of safety.
The expectations for benefits resulting from the
application of human reason have greatly diminished
since the high hopes of the seventeenth and eighteenth
centuries. The major goal of the thinkers of the
Enlightenment was to give a foundation to philosophy
that was independent of any particular tradition,
21
culture, or religion: one that any rational person would be arguing that the future will be like the past,
accept. The philosophers of the Enlightenment because in the past the future was like the past.
believed that the application of critical reason to This amounts to using induction to prove the
received traditions and structures would bring human principle of induction, and it is no justification.
advancement. By stripping human beings of all those Instead of reason, Hume argues, custom or habit
attributes that they took to be the results of social leads us to expect like causes to produce like
conventions, they hoped to uncover certain effects. At bottom, nothing but human nature
characteristics of human nature that were universal underpins our thinking in this connection.”13
and unchanging. If this could be done, then they could
determine the most effective and legitimate form of Hume did not doubt either the fact or the usefulness
government.11 This was a worthwhile quest which is of causal reasoning, but the validity of that way of
far from completion. reasoning, validity as judged by the very criterion of
reason itself. 14 Hume concluded that the whole
The eminent philosopher, David Hume (1711 – 1776), operation of the mind may be attributed to a wonderful
was an anomaly in the eighteenth century. He made “instinct” bred in humans by nature and enabling them
the case that humans were driven by their instincts, to act and live.
natural dispositions and propensities of the mind, and
that reason, which the rationalists among philosophers The tendency to believe that the future will be like
have commonly supposed all powerful, is, in fact, the past makes it likely that societies will be shocked
powerless beyond the very narrow range of by unexpected events. It explains, in part, the
mathematics.12 This was an unusual position to take inadequate public response to the warnings of
at the time, involved great courage and environmental degradation and the growing scarcity
showed remarkable foresight that was confirmed by of some natural resources. Changes that threaten
subsequent developments in science. Hume’s human comforts are denied for as long as possible
position on the principle of induction has not been even though such denial greatly increases the long-
improved upon: term costs.

“Causal thinking is, Hume argues, the only way
we can move beyond the narrow band of present
sensory experience, from the observed to the
unobserved, from the present to the past and the
future. Having had lots of experiences in the past
of particular causes (political events) issuing in
particular effects (newspaper reports) I expect that
this cause-effect conjunction will continue to hold,
and that the effect I see now is caused in the same
reliable way as the past effects I have seen. What
underpins our inference is the Principle of
Induction: the future will be like the past. But
Hume asks, what justifies our belief in this
principle?”
“The principle cannot be a er lation of ideas, as
its negation — the future will not be like the past
— is perfectly conceivable, not self-contradictory.
Nor can the principle be justified in terms of
matters of fact, the truths discovered by
experience, as this would be circular. We would
Science as Saviour
Science has become idealized in Western societies as
symbolizing the application of reason and objectivity
to obtaining and refining knowledge. Perhaps the
human need for confidence and certainty has been
largely transferred from the symbol of a benevolent
God to the concept of the scientific model which
seems to promise a brighter future for all humanity, a
lodestone of hope. The inventions made possible by
science have delivered wealth and ingenious
consumer products that have created an almost
worshipful public respect for this sort of knowledge.
The concepts of the human being created in the image
of God and the scientific model have something in
common. Both suggest the potential for human beings
to become more perfect in terms of their thought
processes, their rationality. Both are illusions.
Science is a tool to be used by humankind for good
or ill. It can be used to gain greater understanding or
for exploitation. It is no better or worse that the
humans who apply it. The scientific method, like

22
any institution no matter idealistic its conception, can
be undermined by those so motivated. Jean-Jacques
Rousseau argued in his First Discourse that the arts
and the sciences are born from our vices, concluding
that science becomes simply a means of making our
lives easier and more pleasurable but not morally
better. The risks we humans pose to ourselves and to
the living Earth have increased substantially given
the power of the tools science has placed in our hands
and since human morality has probably changed
imperceptibly in recent centuries.
Scientific specialization can bring dangers. Like all
humans, scientists seek social recognition for their
work and they operate with partial knowledge which
can result in potential catastrophes. For example,
CFCs were widely used as refrigerants beginning in
the mid twentieth century before the consequences
of their use were well understood. It took decades
before it was recognized that CFCs were causing a
severe thinning of the ozone layer in the Earth’s
atmosphere.
Science-led successes such as, space travel, medical
advances, tall buildings, and communications
technologies, have contributed to human arrogance,
supporting the prejudice that humans are somehow
an exception, a life form apart and superior to what
has come before, with a mind so complex and talented
that there are few limits to what it can achieve. This
hubris has contributed to the excesses that have so
damaged life on Earth.
Nevertheless, it is unfair to blame science for human
shortcomings. Science is a method to gain
knowledge. One of its major contributions has been
to help humans to understand themselves and their
interdependence with the rest of life. The integration
of scientific specialities has given us ecology, which
has made painfully clear the extent of human violence
inflicted on the Earth. As the ecologist Aldo Leopold
said:
“One of the penalties of an ecological education
is that one lives alone in a world of wounds. An
ecologist must either harden his shell and make
believe that the consequences of science are none
of his business, or he must be the doctor who sees
the marks of death in a community that believes
itself well and does not want to be told otherwise.”
Psychology has helped to peel away illusions.
Sigmund Freud is best known for his theories of the
unconscious mind, especially involving the
mechanism of repression and his redefinition of
sexual desire as the primary motivational energy of
human life directed toward a wide variety of objects.
In the repressed late-Victorian era where the concept
of the human created in the image of God still held
sway, Freud revealed the repressed, the feared, the
sexual and other animal drives. He had the courage
to challenge taboos. He and the major talented
scientists that followed his lead have given a
challenging description of the human predicament.
For example, Ernest Becker describes man’s tragic
destiny as follows:
“He must desperately justify himself as an object
of primary value in the universe, he must stand
out, be a hero, make the biggest possible
contribution to world life, show that he counts
more than anything or anyone else…..he earns this
feeling by carving a place out of nature, by
building an edifice that reflects human value: a
temple, a cathedral, a totem pole, a skyscraper, a
family that spans three generations. The hope and
belief is that the things that man creates in society
are of lasting worth and meaning, that they outlive
or outshine death and decay, that man and his
products count.”15
Far from the Platonic potential philosopher king and
the Christian image of God, we find that the human
is an animal that gets his feeling of self worth
symbolically and has to minutely compare himself
to those around him to make sure that he does not
come off second best.16
Conflicting emotions take a heavy toll and are
amplified by the high intelligence and sensitivity of
the human animal who often feels overwhelmed by
vulnerability in the midst of the forces of the Universe.
At the core of each human are the competing feelings
of the love of life, the fear of life and the fear of death.
Bombarded by new information accelerated in an
electronic age, unfiltered consciousness can lead to
23
fear and inaction adding to stress. In defence, the
“healthy individual” engages in active repression,
follows cultural programming and expansive genetic
striving, and focuses down on social role playing, the
source of social esteem. Other stressors in the human
psyche finds the individual aspiring to be a hero
courageously trying to contribute to causes beyond
the immediate needs of self, while at the same time,
worrying about personal vulnerabilities and self-
preservation. Each person wants to stand out from
the crowd, to achieve a form of cosmic specialness,
but also desires to be part of something bigger, to
merge with the cosmic process and be one with
everything. While human imagination, creativity and
consciousness give the perception of possibilities
almost god-like, people are animals tied to their bodily
requirements and unconscious necessities.
Into this turmoil of instincts, drives, and emotions,
human ingenuity and science have placed into the
hands of a talented but erratic species, powerful tools
such as nuclear weapons and bio-engineering. The
power of knowledge and new technologies add to the
risks associated with the instability of the human
animal. Clearly, science will not be the saviour of
human beings, but the self-knowledge that science
has made possible offers some hope.
Some Implications for Government
The structures of modern government were conceived
in the Enlightenment of the seventeenth and
eighteenth centuries and based on the myths that
human beings are primarily rational, that the truth
will set us free, and that if people are given the facts,
then, as rational beings, we will all reach the correct
and similar conclusions. Thinkers of the
Enlightenment maintained that it is irrational for a
person to go against his or her self-interest and that a
normal person acts on the basis of self-interest.
Cognitive psychology has revealed that people do not
think this way. To be accepted, truth must fit the major
concepts or frames that are well-established in their
brains, otherwise the facts bounce off. Cognitive
scientist, George Lakoff, provides the following
explanation for this behaviour:
24
“Neuroscience tells us that each of the concepts
we have – the long-term concepts that structure
how we think – is instantiated in the synapses of
our brains. Concepts are not things that can be
changed just by someone telling us a fact. We
may be presented with facts, but for us to make
sense of them, they have to fit what is already in
the synapses of the brain. Otherwise facts go in
and they go right back out. They are not heard, or
they are not accepted as facts, or they mystify
us.”17
It is the practice of well–intentioned people in
government to counter incorrect information with
accurate facts. However, recent psychological studies
show that denials and clarifications, for all their
intuitive appeal, can paradoxically contribute to the
resiliency of popular myths. A report in 2006 by the
Pew Global Attitudes Project found that the number
of Muslims worldwide who do not believe that Arabs
carried out the September 11th attacks is soaring – to
59 percent of Turks and Egyptians, 65 percent of
Indonesians, 53 percent of Jordanians, 41 percent of
Pakistanis and even 56 percent of British Muslims.18
The insights of cognitive psychology and linguistics
have been applied in politics increasingly during the
last three decades, most effectively by the neo-
conservatives in the United States of America. For
example, the neo conservative use of the term “tax
relief” implants in the brain the idea that taxes are
bad and that those who promise to remove them are
heroes saving the public from an overly-burdensome
administration. The purposes of taxes are forgotten
— such as the need to maintain infrastructure,
education, health care, and other public institutions
essential for a civilized society.
The application of psychological techniques in
politics has detrimental repercussions. Serious
problems, instead of being treated responsibly by the
majority of public officials, are all too often tossed
into political bedlam more like a street fight than
informed public debate as opponents struggle to
anchor frames in the minds of the electorate. For
example, in 1993, when fifty-eight of the world’s
scientific academies issued a warning to humanity
regarding the potential impact of environmental
degradation, they came under attack by both sides of
the political spectrum. The scientists were portrayed
by the right-wing as radicals, leftists, socialists or
communists; and by the left-wing as capitalists,
racists, or fascists. Powerful interests have sought to
undermine the environmental movement by
establishing hundreds of institutions or think-tanks
that sound like environment organizations but are
really proponents of unbridled capitalism.19 This is
an example of where science is being used, not for
the public good, but to preserve the short-term
advantages of some special interest groups.
Public inertia is a major barrier to addressing long-
term environmental threats. In times of crisis when
major adjustments may be required to diminish severe
and unusual risks, the public is often unwilling to alter
their comfortable ways. If the need for change is
advocated as essential to resolve environmental
problems that most the public barely understand, then
it is easy for a contrary view to prevail by those who
assure the public that all is well with the world.
Democracy is in danger from this aberrant
manipulation and from the emphasis in politics on
gaining power at any cost rather than focussing on
essential and responsible public discourse leading to
timely solutions. Furthermore, democracy has
flourished best in societies that are prosperous and
expanding. When it took root in Attica in ancient
Greece, the land was like a garden, forested, with
fertile land, and well-watered. The citizens of the
United States had a continent to grow into. Now,
environmental crises and looming shortages of natural
resources are undermining economies. Economic
decline will bring unrest.
The Enlightenment provided the underlying
framework of contemporary governments for human
beings deemed to be primarily guided by reason.
These governments are not functioning well enough
as indicated by a growing list of environmental
problems. What system of government is emerging
to rule a species governed by drives, emotions, and
instincts that are easily manipulated by psychological
techniques amplified by the global media? What
system of government can prevent such a species from
following its instincts in suicidal patterns of behaviour
that threaten the living Earth? These issues require
immediate public debate but are rarely discussed.
Some Conclusions
While we humans have some power to reason, often
after the fact, we are primarily controlled by instinct,
drives and emotions. The human species is in the
habit of chattering about what it should do while
proceeding along quite a different path. For all our
ingenuity, human beings are not in control. We did
not emerge from the soup of life by our own design
and our decline and eventual demise will come as a
surprise to us.
Since we humans are the product of the cells and
bacteria that are the building blocks of life, we should
not be surprised that our predisposition for growth
does not differ much from that of the organisms of
which we are comprised — that is to expand as much
as possible in the short-term until stopped by
shortages and other natural checks and disasters.
The environmental degradation resulting from human
actions threatens the future of the species and of much
of life on Earth. The problems we face are long-
term, while the human attention span favours the
short-term. By the time we apply our collective focus
to these issues, it may be too late to resolve them.
Scientific developments have led to inventions that
have placed ever more power into human hands,
allowing our species to dominate the planet, but
domination does not mean control. The damage
inflicted on the living Earth has set in motions trends
that are probably beyond human control and beyond
our understanding.
It is unlikely that prescient individuals can protect
human societies from the harsh consequences meted
out by the four horsemen? Cassandra remains as a
symbol of the ineffectuality of the well-informed
individual when opposed by the short-term desire of
the many. Was it rational for the Trojans to bring the
wooden horse through the gates of Troy? Yes, in a
colloquial sense of the term, if the end desired was to
25
possess the horse. No, if they wanted to live beyond
the morrow. What counts is the collective impact of
the human species, not the record of a few dissenters
who tried to prevent disaster.
Marketers of consumer products and services, using
cognitive psychology and linguistics, have been more
effective at connecting to fundamental human drives
and emotions than advocates of environmental
responsibility. Books such as Silent Spring and Limits
to Growth, and many other initiatives produced by
commissions, conferences and governmental
departments warned of environmental dangers,
gathered good information, and presented it logically
as if human beings were rational in the sense of the
term understood in the Age of Reason. If humans
were basically rational, they would have heeded these
warnings and changed their behaviour by now.
People and their governments are lacking in the ability
to address the critical problems of the environment.
The structures of many governments were conceived
in the Enlightenment on the assumption that human
beings were primarily rational; now we know this is
not the case. At a time when good government has
never been more necessary, politics is deteriorating
into shallow debates and spin-doctoring to manipulate
the public when very real environmental threats
require an immediate and collaborative response that
transcends divisions among political parties and
special interest groups. We are in a quandary. Never
was reason needed more but it seems beyond our
reach.
There is great danger in the psychological need for
we humans to see ourselves as heroes hacking
victories from nature and returning with wealth that
affirms our cosmic specialness and evokes social
approval. This perspective is too human-centred at a
time when we need to learn how to live respectfully
within the biosphere and its ecosystems. If humans
are capable of a collective act of will, then we must
override many of our instincts and reorient our
behaviour from the anthropocentric to the eco-centric.
This will involve a profound shift of attitudes.
26
The Way Ahead
“We abuse land because we regard it as a
commodity belonging to us. When we see land
as a community to which we belong, we may
begin to use it with love and respect.”
— Aldo Leopold
We humans need to admit our limitations and deep
flaws and live on the Earth with a sense of humility
that does not come naturally to us as individuals or
social animals. We have to leave the hubris and
dreams of glory behind. We must treasure the
understanding delivered by science but use with care
the technologies that such knowledge makes possible.
It is vital that we acknowledge the wisdom and
creativity of the biosphere and learn to live modestly
within it leaving a substantial buffer, a margin of
safety, to protect us from ourselves, from our
emotional instability, drives, and instincts that have
outgrown their usefulness to our species and to the
planet that gave birth to us.
We have to become comfortable with the concept of
the shrinkage of human numbers and of consumption,
for shrinkage, either voluntary of involuntary, is most
certainly part the way ahead. The idea of growth is
so ingrained in our instincts and institutions that the
mere mention of the idea of shrinkage can shock the
unaware. To challenge economic growth is taboo. It
must be challenged.
Perhaps the human population can be brought to an
ecocentric perspective by education making creative
use of the media and of new information about human
behaviour. We need to forge a new relationship
between humanity and the rest of life, a relationship
to be deeply rooted in our intellects and emotions.
To succeed in this venture, a new purpose must be
engraved on the human conscience, one that
encourages the individual to:
• understand the living Earth and its processes
if all life is one, and humans are the most
conscious of life forms, then knowing life is
part of knowing oneself;
 • contribute to, enhance, further, assist, and References
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nurture all life, recognizing that a healthy Gray, John. Straw Dogs: Thoughts on Humans and Other
biosphere is essential for human survival; Animals. London. Granta Publications. 2002. at p. 66.
2
• honour and revere life, to hold it in high Norretranders, Tor. The User Illusion: Cutting Consciousness
Down to Size. New York. Viking. 1998. p. 126.
respect and regard it with awe; 3
Economy, Elizabeth C.. The Great Leap Backward.
• love life — the human relationship with the Foreign Affairs. September/October 2007.
living Earth should be loving, joyful, and 4
Norretranders, Tor. The User Illusion: Cutting
benevolent, growing from an ever-deepening Consciousness Down to Size. New York. Viking. 1998. Ch 6.
5
knowledge and respect; Wikipedia
6
• serve life — this is service in the sense of Allman, John Morgan. Evolving Brains. New York.
public service, a dedication to something Scientific American Library. 1999. p. 3
7
Abidi, H. 2003. Factor Rotations. In M. Lewis-Beck, A.
beyond the self and beyond the immediate Bryman, T. Futing (eds.) Encyclopedia for research methods
demands of the human species. This involves for the social sciences. Thousand Oaks. (CA): Sage.
a dedication to live by the laws that govern 8
Sutherland, Keith. Journal of Consciousness Studies, 10,
the healthy ecosystems of the Earth and to No. 2, 2003, pp. 86-94.
9
respect, sustain, and nurture their creativity Crick, F. & C. Koch. 1998/2003. Consciousness and
and complexity.20 Neuroscience.” In B. Baars. W. Banks. & J. Newman
(eds.) Essential Sources in the Scientific Study of
consciousness. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Can we rise to the occasion? Do we have the 10 Wright, Wayne. Explanation and the hard problem.
collective will? Probably not, but it is possible. Published in Philosophical Studies. (2007) 132: 301-330.
Therein lurks the fascination of the tale. 11
The Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Jean-Jacques
Rousseau. p. 5 - 6
It is more likely that we will continue to struggle to 12 Mossner, Ernest Campbell. The Life of David Hume.
understand the consequences of our actions but will Second Edition. Oxford. The Clarendon Press. 1980.
13
not be able to act in time. We are limited by our Stangroom, Jeremy. Garvey, James. The Great
Philosophers. p. 70.
consciousness and by the constraints of the principle 14 Hume, David. An Inquiry Concerning Human
of induction. Recognizing our inability to predict the Understanding. Edited with an Introduction by Charles W.
future, we could counsel caution and sage Hendel. Indianapolis, Indiana. Bobbs-Merrill Company
preparations to meet the potential outcomes of various Inc. 1955.
scenarios. While this sounds sensible, it can be very 15 Becker, Ernest. The Denial of Death. New York. Free
expensive and hard to justify in times of increasing Press Paperbacks. 1997. pp. 4-5
16
global physical constraints. This leaves us with the 17 Ibid, p. 4.
Lakoff, George. Don’t Think of an Elephant: Know Your
four horsemen which alone may have the detached
Values and Frame the Debate. White River Junction,
ruthlessness necessary to save us from ourselves. Vermont, Chelsea Green Publishing. 2004.
18
Vedantam, Shankar. Persistence of Myths Could Alter
With dire prospects, there will be a need for acting Public Policy Approach. Washington Post, Tuesday,
with caring and kindness within the human family. September 4, 2007; A03.
19
Although collectively, humanity may be on a Ehrlich, Paul R.; Anne H. Betrayal of Science and
trajectory that will lead to the collapse of civilization Reason: How Anti-Environmental Rhetoric Threatens Our
Future. Washington, DC/Covelo, California. Island Press/
as we know it, the process of adjustment will be
Shearwater Books. 1996.
helped by actions that reflect an understanding of the 20 For a superb exposition of what is needed see A
transformative effects of love, affection, and kindness. Manifesto for Earth, by Ted Mosquin and J. Stan, Rowe,
As members of our species, we can do no less. available at: http://www.ecospherics.net/pages/
However, the love for fellow humans must be EarthManifesto.html
extended to encompass all life, and, at times, it will
be necessary to say no to human demands so that all
life on Earth may flourish.

27
 Peak Oil and the Social
Consequences of its Decline
by Robert Bériault

Robert Beriault, a graduate of Carleton University, was for many years employed in the field of
agriculture research, and later in animal biotechnology at both the University of Montreal and
the University of Guelph. He was also the owner and operator of several business enterprises.
A former member of the Kiwanis and Humanists, during more recent years he has been an
active member of environmental organizations and the Population Institute of Canada. Robert
Beriault is the author of the PowerPoint eBook “Peak Oil and the Fate of Humanity”

Introduction
As the price of oil inches toward $100 a barrel, Peak
Oil is being mentioned increasingly in the media.
However, for most people the expression “Peak Oil”,
if they have heard of it at all, does little but impart a
vague image of higher gas prices. Peak Oil can be
defined as the point in time near the halfway point in
the extraction of recoverable oil when production
must begin an irreversible decline. It hasn’t reached
the public realm yet that the inexorable decline in oil
production following the peak will have repercussions
of imponderable dimensions for our civilization. To
help determine the consequences of the post peak
decline, it might be useful to review what oil has
brought us.
How Oil Has Changed Us
Richard Heinberg and other authors describe how
innumerable things are made of oil and how it
provides us with an impressive variety of services,
such as ground, water and air transportation,
mechanized manufacturing, year-round construction,
monoculture farming, clear cutting forestry, factory
fishing and tourism. Access to nature’s endowment
of energy has enabled us to develop technologies that
would have been in the realm of science fiction a
century ago, such as the personal computer, nuclear
power, air travel and television to name only a few.
In fact the discovery of oil has revolutionized the way
humans live. At the dawn of the Oil Age, inexpensive
kerosene extended day into night, thus enabling
people to benefit from the hours of darkness, either
for work or play. In the years soon after oil’s
discovery, several patents for gasoline fuelled internal
combustion engines were awarded.
This paved the way for an invention that led to a most
profound impact on the way humans would organize
their living arrangements, the horseless carriage.
Technical advances made the automobile ever more
affordable. Through liberal allocation of fossil fuel
energy, Henry Ford’s engineers were able to design
mechanized assembly lines. This propelled
automobile construction to new heights and lowered
the cost of a vehicle to within the grasp of the middle
class. After the Second World War, the price of a car
came within reach of every level of society, including
blue-collar workers.
Car ownership would become so ubiquitous that city
planning would be totally rethought to accommodate
the automobile. Private transportation would thus
largely replace public transportation. Eventually, as
depicted in the film The End of Suburbia, the
extensive array of streets, driveways, highways,
freeways, expressways, feeder lanes, collector lanes,

28
access ramps, causeways, viaducts, overpasses,
bridges and roundabouts would render the car king
and the pedestrian pauper. Eventually, a family could
afford to park one, two, or even three cars in its
driveway. The advent of inexpensive motoring
encouraged city planners to compartmentalize our
living arrangements into home spaces, office spaces,
industrial spaces, commercial spaces, leisure spaces
and church spaces. Single use zoning bylaws have
in turn encouraged us to use the automobile as the
principal means of local travel, supplanting walking,
cycling and public transport.
Today children can no longer participate in some of
the best physical activities, including walking,
running, jumping and climbing, exercises that my
generation practiced daily in gamboling to and from
school. Today’s suburban kids have to sit piously in
a school bus, sometimes for several hours a day.
Adults are now cognizant of the importance of
exercise; but rather than risking life and limb braving
car-dominated roadways, they drive to the gym,
sometimes several kilometers. Likewise, if you need
a bag of milk, the safest and quickest way to buy it is
to drive to the corner store. It is often beyond your
neighborhood’s labyrinth of convoluted streets,
connected to the gas station in the big box shopping
centre on the other side of a six-lane divided street
that cuts through the suburb, effectively isolating your
neighborhood from the others.
Our ingenious ways of putting oil to work has
produced unprecedented affluence. In pre-industrial
times, all the energy required to do work, such as
agriculture or construction, had to be provided by
animal or human muscle. To provide perspective on
the magnitude of the energy concentrated in a given
unit of oil, consider that the entire workforce required
to build the King Cheops’ pyramid of Ghisa would
have been insufficient to power one tugboat towing a
barge in the Strait of Georgia!
Oil has enabled one farmer with his machinery and
petroleum-derived inputs to feed 100 people, and for
humankind to store food to avert famines. Oil has
allowed us to operate hundreds of labor saving
machines used in construction, provide most
Canadian families with climate-controlled living
space, hot and cold running water, and appliances of
every description. Oil has also provided us with a
varied diet, including fresh food coming from distant
countries. Pre-industrial kings would have envied
the way a Gatineau street sweeper can eat today.
Cheap energy has allowed us to manufacture goods
at less and less cost. My father bought our family’s
first refrigerator and paid $350, 25% of his annual
salary. I bought my first refrigerator, a much better
one, for only 10% of my salary. Today the average
Canadian can buy the same thing for only 1 to 2% of
his salary.
The unprecedented affluence that we enjoy, thanks
to oil, is at the root of fundamental changes in our
society. Perhaps the most profound change is the
relationship between men and women. In my
grandmother’s time, it was commonplace for a French
Canadian woman to produce 10 to 20 children and to
be restricted by her reproductive and housekeeping
responsibilities. However, in the early part of the 20th
century, work-saving appliances and prepared foods
allowed women more time to participate in politics
and to demand universal suffrage. The oil-fuelled
economy during World War II gave women the
opportunity to carry out jobs that traditionally
belonged to men. The accessibility of a second
automobile has allowed the majority of women to
shed their role of housekeeper, participate in the
workforce, and even dominate sectors that were
previously the domain of men only. In my view, the
near parity of women’s salaries with men’s, more
than anything else, made equality possible.
Pharmaceutical birth control freed women from the
continual burden of pregnancy and lactation, and has
contributed to their full participation in the workforce.
The enormous strides achieved in obstetrics,
parturition and neonatal care has enabled mothers to
return to work after childbirth. The availability of safe
abortions has allowed many girls to carry on with
their studies and careers instead of being forced to
remain at home to raise an unwanted child.
Afghanistan cannot provide employment
opportunities to its women because it is poor. That is
why Afghan women are not treated as equals to men.
Afghanistan does not use large amounts of oil, as most
29
of the work comes from human muscle. Therefore
the poverty in this country must continue and women
will remain subservient no matter how many soldiers
we provide.
It is only a very wealthy nation — a nation whose
poor citizens are effectively rich — that can raise
freedom of the individual to the level of a cult and to
proclaim a charter of rights and freedoms as we do in
Canada. When food must be grown through the use
of a large force of manual laborers, often requiring
coercion to keep the workforce under control, freedom
of speech and of association are problematic.
In earlier centuries, successful “civilized” societies
depended upon slavery for their energy needs. In
recent history developed countries have abolished
slavery, in large part because hydrocarbons provided
the required energy more efficiently. Today’s third
world countries still practice slavery. Their slaves
are not of course held down with ball and chain, they
are held down by economic imperatives.
Lacking the money to control crime and to administer
their governments effectively, many poor countries
practice torture and capital punishment to keep
dissidents in check. Conversely, nations that have
become rich through the use of oil can afford
alternatives to such extreme measures, such as a
better-trained police force and an elaborate legal
system.
Developed countries cherish a form of democracy
based on universal suffrage. This ideal form of
democracy is a luxury found mainly in rich countries,
which enjoy a high level of organization and stability,
and whose citizens enjoy equality through
replacement of human labor with fossil fuels.
Large numbers of people from developing countries
who seek economic advantage hope to emigrate to
rich countries. In Canada immigration is generally
considered necessary for economic growth, but others
view it as an unnecessary contribution to pollution,
urban sprawl, loss of biodiversity and resource
depletion.
30
Perhaps one of the most far-reaching benefits of oil-
generated affluence is the advancement of public
health care. A modern health care system requires
massive amounts of oil. Think of the panoply of
disposable items involved in diagnosis and treatment.
Think of the energy required to run a hospital’s
heating, air conditioning, ventilation, medical
machines, incinerator, kitchen and office equipment.
Think of research labs that require 100% replacement
ventilation, animal colonies, large amounts of
reagents, compressed gasses and cryogenic
equipment. The Canadian health care system provides
hope and a chance to live many years of productive
and enjoyable life to an HIV positive person, a cancer
victim, a hemophiliac, a heart transplant recipient,
and a nephrectomy patient. At the other end of the
demographic scale we have developed vaccines for
the most dreadful of childhood diseases and we can
prevent unnecessary death in children by
administering inexpensive vitamins and sanitary care.
Developed countries have exported these cheap
methods of death control to third world countries, thus
greatly contributing to their overpopulation problem.
In the presence of death control, and in the absence
of universal birth control, humans now greatly exceed
the Earth’s carrying capacity, putting their population
in overshoot and in the process sending thousands of
other species to extinction.
An interesting benefit of cheap oil is its influence on
the price of paper. This has transformed us into a
society of readers and paper pushers. A huge
advertising industry has emerged, resulting in each
of us receiving vast quantities of printed advertising
material. With the advent of the computer and cheap
printers, we are consuming greater quantities of paper
than ever before. Just think, before the age of oil a
good personal library might contain a hundred books;
today it is not uncommon for a bookworm or an
intellectual to own a collection of thousands.
Perhaps the greatest contribution of oil-enabled
wealth to humanity is providing the conditions for
developing, recording and disseminating an
unprecedented body of knowledge. In the ancient
past, only a civilization that controlled a large mass
of human muscle, such as the Greeks, the Romans
and the Incas could afford the luxury of education,
and then only for their elite. Education for all classes
was not possible before the availability of widespread
fossil fuel-run mechanization. If today we have a
better understanding of our world than the Ancients,
it is because we have been taught the germ theory,
the heliocentric theory, the laws of gravity, the law of
conservation of mass, the laws of thermodynamics,
the electromagnetic theory, atomic theory, the theory
of evolution and others. The understanding of the
scientific method has allowed humans to cast off the
shackles of superstition and irrational belief. As a
result, organized religions – at least those that
originate in developed countries – have lost a large
proportion of their flocks. Today agnostics and
atheists are no longer afraid to come out of the closet,
unless of course they are running for political office.
The Oil Age is often spoken of as the information
age. Indeed, oil-enabled wealth has led to the
development of the telephone, television, the
computer, cable, air transportation and the propulsion
of satellites into orbit. With the advent of the Internet,
information about world events or about your ingrown
toenail can be broadcast around the world in a flash.
The ability of converting oil into movement has
allowed homo sapiens to invent numerous sports.
Think of RVing, water skiing, deep-sea fishing,
downhill skiing, hang gliding, hot air ballooning,
motocross and snowmobiling.
Transportation has always existed in some form or
other before the exploitation of oil. But since the
invention of the internal combustion engine and the
jet engine, oil, which comprises 95% of all the energy
used in transportation, has allowed goods and persons
to shuffle around the planet like never before. Access
to low cost air travel has spawned a huge tourism
business, an industry previously limited to a wealthy
few now provides a livelihood for millions of people.
The Caribbean islands, and probably those of the
Pacific, are grossly overpopulated and survive almost
exclusively on tourist money.
A bizarre offshoot of cheap diesel fuel is “just-in-
time-delivery”. The principle is that essential parts
used in manufacturing are shipped to factories
overnight in tractor-trailers to be assembled the next
day. This obviates the need for warehousing and
financing expensive inventory.
Inexpensive transportation has allowed the
outsourcing of manufacturing to developing countries
halfway around the world and was the catalyst that
propelled world trade. A perverse effect of this
practice for Canada is that it has evolved from
exporting manual factory jobs, supposedly jobs
Canadians don’t want, to exporting of jobs in the
professional fields of medicine and engineering, jobs
that Canadians definitely do want. We are also
devolving to countries in East Asia our capability of
making our own shoes and clothes.
The most insidious effect of cheap oil has been to
influence Canadians to increase their exports of
natural resources. We’ve been hewers of wood and
drawers of water for a long time but now we’ve
become pumpers of oil and diggers of tar sand, nickel,
copper and other below ground resources.
War has always been a fundamental part of human
societies, hunter-gatherer and agrarian alike. Fighting
is an evolutionary trait that has allowed the strongest
to survive and pass on their genes. Ironically, when a
civilization reaches the Oil Age this trait could be
prejudicial to its survival. Ever since the Stone Age,
weapons have become increasingly deadly and
destructive. Creativity didn’t stop with the discovery
of the first oil well. To the contrary, the availability
of this concentrated form of energy has fuelled the
building of stunningly complex, lethal and destructive
armaments. We can blame heat seeking missiles,
surface-to-air missiles, antiballistic missiles, stinger
missiles, anti-aircraft artillery, armor piercing
depleted uranium warheads, cluster bombs,
defoliants, anti-personnel mines, napalm, monster jet
fighters, navy ships, grenade launchers, tracer
ammunition, machine guns and atomic bombs on
petroleum. The wars of the Oil Age have wreaked
environmental devastation on a scale never before
possible.
Where Will This Lead Us To
Now that we’ve reviewed how oil has transformed
society, let’s try to visualize what will happen once
31
this essential resource starts running out. Here is a
possible if pessimistic scenario: From the time the
post peak decline begins, world oil production is
expected to fall by 2 to 3% per year while global
demand is expected to increase by 2 to 3% per year.
Every year thereafter there will be approximately 5%
less oil on the market than is needed for a growing
economy. No alternative source will be able to supply
enough energy fast enough to compensate for a 5%
decline. The first result of this gap between supply
and demand will be a marked increase in the price of
oil. Since economic activity cannot be separated from
a reliable oil supply, we can expect economic growth
to come to a halt. This will propel the world into a
period of mounting inflation. Cost of materials will
increase and the cost of maintaining industrial and
municipal infrastructures will skyrocket.
Bankruptcies, unemployment and foreclosures will
follow. There will be a major decline and great
volatility in the stock market, followed by investor
uncertainty and confusion. The realization that it is
no longer possible to achieve a return on investment
will discourage stock market investment. Since there
will no longer be an expectation of a return, borrowing
for investment will cease, and the money supply will
collapse. The unemployed will become discouraged,
hungry and cold. They will steal food from where
they can and will dismantle anything that is built of
wood to provide them with heat. Chaos will reign.
What we don’t know is the timeline and the order of
events. Will the decline be protracted or precipitous?
Since there is a lot of elasticity in our ability to use
energy, and since we are quite ingenious when it
comes to coping with crises (politicians do this every
day), Peak Oil might be followed by a long, bumpy
plateau, thus condemning us ultimately to a steeper
drop on the downside of the curve. Somewhere along
the downslope we will run into the natural gas peak,
the coal peak and the uranium peak. Wind and solar
energy might mitigate somewhat the severity of the
decline, but eventually there will be no fossil fuels
with which to build replacement wind turbines and
solar panels when they reach the end of their useful
lives.
It is difficult to predict what will happen to the hard
earned gains women have made in the past century
towards attaining equality with men.
32
In “Overshoot”, William Catton tells us that when an
organism unexpectedly encounters a large amount of
food, its population will increase until it has consumed
the resource, followed by population collapse to its
carrying capacity or lower. Tragically the Oil Age has
had the effect of providing the human race with an
enormous and unexpected source of oil for growing
food. Catton defines this artificial carrying capacity
as phantom acreage. As any other species would have
done in a similar situation, the human population grew
to consume the available “food”, namely oil. Once
oil starts to decline, so will the temporary carrying
capacity that oil provided. A population crash is
inevitable. What is not known is the Earth’s carrying
capacity. If it is a billion, then the population will
have to fall to that level within the next century. If
the crash starts in 2050 with a population of nine
billion this means that the excess death rate will
produce a population decline of eight billion in about
one hundred years. This implies that there will be a
ferocious premature death rate.
Last week when shopping at Loblaws I saw a DVD
player for sale at the regular price of $27.95. To me
this spells disaster for the human race. When a
civilization attributes so little value to the extracted
resources that it depends on for its existence, then it
is doomed to collapse. The relentless oil decline will
of course bring an end to cheap consumer goods.
Perhaps, if we’re lucky, we will revert to the
conditions of the early 20th century, when people
spent frugally and repaired breakages when they
occurred.
As gasoline becomes more difficult to obtain people
will revert to living more locally, forgoing trips across
the city to attend a movie or a hockey game. The
automobile will gradually lose its reliance for
transportation. Public transit, like other municipal
services, will deteriorate. Walking and cycling will
increasingly be the favored means of local travel,
although not by choice.
Municipalities will have to change zoning regulations
to allow multiple building uses, and permit a
convenience store or a shoe repair shop to establish a
business in a private home.
Home schooling will become more popular as one or
both parents will be without work and the distance to
school will be too far to travel by foot. Because the
need for esoteric professionals will be less,
universities will lose much of their student population.
When petroleum-based agriculture becomes reduced,
there will be a reversal in the machine-human energy
ratio, and farms will require additional labor. Many
persons will leave the cities to seek employment in
rural areas.
At some point, cargo ships and trucks will be
abandoned and big box stores and giant supermarkets
will become empty shells. They will have neither
merchandise nor customers.
Construction will be one of the earliest industries to
be hard hit. At the beginning of the decline there
may be some demand for renovations and retrofitting
for energy conservation. But when economic
conditions worsen, few tradesmen will have work
because materials will be scarce and demand for their
skills will have become much reduced.
Eventually Canada’s armed forces will no longer have
the “luxury” of participating in the affairs of other
countries. Our military will be required to guard our
borders against the flood of illegal immigration.
With the need for maintaining law and order amidst
the chaos, we will be required to modify our charter
of rights and freedoms and grant our police greatly
enhanced powers. Prisons will be bursting at the
seams but there will be no money to build additional
ones. The politically correct term “Correctional
Services” will have to be abandoned, as triage will
allow only violent criminals and “enemies of the
state” to be incarcerated.
Our cherished public health care system will have
difficulty coping when it loses its funding and
becomes overrun with the sick. There can be no doubt
that a large contributor to the population decline will
be disease and lack of medical resources. Third world
countries will be hardest hit, especially since they
won’t be able to afford oil at market prices. Large
masses of their citizens will be trapped in ghettos with
no food and sanitary facilities.
Although the technology of the computer microchip
risks meeting its demise, it is rather unlikely that
writing, paper and books will disappear. Eventually
we may have to confer as much value to a scrap of
paper as they do in Cuba, where every square inch
gets scribbled on.
In my view the most important aspect of a civilization
is its pool of knowledge. I’m not sure that the vast
amount of information now available on the Internet
will be saved, but books will. At least some books.
In the past there were many examples of deliberate
knowledge destruction. For example, book burnings
in Nazi Germany and China and destruction of
Rongorongo hieroglyphs on Easter Island. It would
be an abomination if we lost the precious wealth of
literature that is now available in the world’s libraries.
There is a high likelihood that the post Peak Oil chaos
will result in a loss of valuable art and archeological
artifacts, as was the case with the National Museum
of Iraq when the Americans “liberated” the country.
Many of the comforts of life we take for granted, like
a drive to the mountains, a flight to the Caribbean, a
winter salad, South African grapes or a fine French
Brie will be available only to the truly rich.
Since humankind has not heeded the Club of Rome’s
warnings about reducing its population, Mother
Nature will do it for us. Disease and hunger will
accomplish the cull, augmented by our propensity for
waging war to keep or expand our advantages.
There may be silver linings in the post peak decline.
Canadians might be able to hang onto some of their
mineral resources, and perhaps, if Peak Oil comes
sooner rather than later, there might be some oil left
in the ground for our descendants to use with
parsimonious discretion. There will be fewer oil spills
and less pollution from all sources. There will be
fewer cases of asthma and cancer. There will be fewer
car and airline crashes, fewer mining, industrial and
farming accidents. When neighborhood schools
rebuild after society recovers from the crash, children
will once again be able to jump fences, splash through
puddles and climb trees while walking to school.
Robert Bériault, E-mail:michrob@videotron.ca
www.crazygasprices.com
33
 The Impact of Peak Oil
on the People of Developing Countries
by Jon Legg

After graduating from le Collège militaire royal de St-Jean, RMC and McGill, Jon served for 31
years with the Department of Foreign Affairs, with an emphasis on national and international
security. Since retirement in 1996, he has served on the boards of a national unity association, the
Population Institute of Canada, and CACOR.

Summary and Conclusions

This paper is an attempt to envisage what effect the Oil Peak will have on developing countries. If the impact
on people in developing countries can be described with clarity, the need to take the impending decrease in
oil production more seriously is greatly strengthened. It may even be possible to plan appropriate actions to
adapt to the difficulties that may arise.1

The theory to be examined is that the poor people in the large cities of the developing countries will be the
hardest hit of any group on the planet. This examination does not provide conclusive confirmation of the
theory. It is nevertheless probable that poor people in the cities of developing countries will come under
earlier and greater economic pressure than will people in developed countries. People in developed countries
will of course experience their own difficulties of adaptation to the Oil and Gas Peaks, and will not be able to
insulate themselves from some of the difficulties experienced in the developing countries.

The Theory to be Tested

For many people who follow the general
environmental degradation of our planet, the physical
signs around us, and those we learn about, are all
pointing in a negative direction. These signs are
almost always a result of excessive growth. Both the
1972 “Limits to Growth”2 and the 2002 “Limits to
Growth, The 30-Year Update”3 provide detailed and
sophisticated analysis of five areas of growth, and
why we humans must curb our growth if we are not
to suffer very serious consequences. But the physical
signs, combined with the sophisticated analysis and
extrapolation of trends, are still not sufficiently
convincing for the many who insist that there is no
problem that cannot be solved.
It is therefore tempting to choose a single example of
the results of growth, and use it to describe how
human lives will be negatively affected as the results
of growth become evident. A prime candidate for
selection is the event popularly known as the global
oil peak, which will be termed “Oil Peak” for
simplicity. Oil Peak is the point in time at which the
global production of conventional oil will not be able
to keep up with constantly increasing demand.
Specialists may debate when the Peak will arrive.
However, the arrival itself of Oil Peak is not in doubt;
what is in doubt is its timing, and the shape of the
Peak. There is general agreement that the Peak of
global production will be known after the fact, that
is, when a number of months of actual production
provide convincing evidence that production has

34
flattened and has begun to decrease. Richard
Heinberg, in “The Party’s Over”4 , provides detailed
information on the phenomenon, and his
“Powerdown”5 attempts to envisage the various
scenarios which could occur when the Peak arrives.
(See also http://www.peakoilandhumanity.com/ for a
clear and even entertaining Power Point presentation
on Oil Peak.6) At no time, however, does Heinberg
become precise about how abrupt or how gradual the
Peak will be. If there is an abrupt and sharp peak,
production will fall rapidly, but if the peak is more
gradual and rounded, the production drop will be
slower. The rounded peak is to be hoped for, of
course, because the slower decline in oil production
will provide more time to adapt to changes. Humans
must adapt to: 1) less oil in the face of rising demand;
and, 2) the inevitable rising prices of oil, as well as
the products and services derived from it.
But how will the Oil Peak play out in terms of human
lives? Because the graph of rising population appears
to closely resemble the graph of the rise in global use
of oil, can we assume that the descent in oil production
will result in an inevitable drop in the level of
population? To put it more bluntly, in the same way
that the population doubled to six billion in the second
half of the twentieth century, will three billion people
die as oil production drops to its former levels? Dale
Pfeiffer, in his paper “Eating Fossil Fuels”, compares
the increase in food production with the use of oil
and natural gas, and concludes in the direst of three
scenarios, “Should we fail to acknowledge this coming
crisis and determine to deal with it, we will be faced
with a die-off from which civilization may very
possibly never revive.”7 Michael C. Ruppert, publisher
of “From the Wilderness Publications”, describes a
paper written in 2004 by Dale Allen Pfeiffer on Peak
Oil and its effects as “…The most frightening article
FTW has ever published…”8 However, with regard
to the close correlation of the rising oil consumption
curve and the rising global population curve, it is also
true that “Correlation is not the same thing as
causation.”9 In other words, it is not inevitable that
decreasing oil supplies will result in matching deaths
of people.
Nevertheless, it does seem intuitive that people who
live in developing countries may feel the effects of
Peak Oil more than those who live in developed
countries, simply because the disposable income of
the former is much less than that of the latter. In the
large cities in the developing countries in particular,
where dependency on both transportation and
fertilizer appears greater, surely there will be problems
when oil prices start to rise seriously. Presumably, in
small villages in Africa, Asia or Latin America, where
small numbers of people live directly off their own
crops, Peak Oil will have little effect, because their
dependency on oil is relatively small. But where
millions of relatively poor people must count on
trucks to bring in crops from outlying fields, rising
oil prices may mean the difference between life and
death.
Because of the dependency on oil for transportation
of food into the larger cities of the developing
countries, their inhabitants will be hit by the Oil Peak
much harder than will people in developed countries
where disposable incomes may be shifted to where
they are needed for survival. If fertilizer costs also
rise because of the Oil Peak, there will be a “double
hit”. For convenience, let us call this supposition
“The Theory”.
Present and Future Size of Cities in
Developing Countries
It is also important to determine how many people
could be affected by the Oil Peak. A 2001 publication
by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations describes the situation in the following
terms: “According to UN projections, by 2030, 4.9
billion people (or sixty per cent of the world’s
population) are expected to live in urban areas. Most
of the population increase will be absorbed by the
urban areas of the less developed regions, thus adding
hundreds of thousands of inhabitants annually to their
already crowded cities. Concurrently, urban growth
is being accompanied by growth in the absolute
numbers of people living close to or below poverty
levels, with some cities already facing poverty rates
of fifty per cent or more.”10
In the same publication, an estimate of the additional
35
numbers of people that will be added between 2000
and 2020 to cities in the developing countries include:
28 cities that will add from 2 to 5 million, 8 cities
from 5 to 10 million, and 4 that will add more than
10 million. Note that these estimates are for additional
people, i.e. births minus deaths, and migration from
the countryside to the cities. The reason for
mentioning these estimated figures is to indicate that
the population growth in the larger urban centres in
the developing countries is difficult for inhabitants
of the developed north to imagine.
Timing of the Oil & Gas Peaks
Before we attempt to zero in on how seriously the
people in the large cites in developing countries will
be affected, let us clarify the timing of the Oil Peak.
To quote Paul Chefurka, “Recently a number of very
well informed people (T. Boone Pickens, Matthew
Simmons, Ken Deffeyes, and Samsam Bakhtiari) have
declared that the peak has arrived. My position is …
that the peak is happening as I write this (in late
2007)”. Chefurka examined the pattern of oil
production and oil prices over the last three years and
discovered in the process that “…crude oil production
peaked in May 2005, and has shown no growth since
then despite a doubling in price and a dramatic surge
in exploration activity.” 11
Now this is where the testing of “The Theory” starts
to get complicated. Natural gas (NG) is essential for
the manufacture of one of the main types of fertilizers,
urea. But the peak for natural gas (NG) will be about
15 years later than the Oil Peak.12 Therefore at first
glance it appears that people in large cites in
developing countries will not suffer the double hit of
more expensive oil and fertilizer at the same time.
The other good news is that for the production of the
other types of fertilizers, phosphate and potash, NG
is also a key element of production. The bad news is
that oil is also used for the mechanized handling of
all three types of fertilizers.
Fertilizers
Gardeners will recognize the three parts needed to
fertilize their flowers: nitrogen, phosphorous, and
potassium. An 18–51–20 fertilizer therefore contains,
36
by weight, 18% elemental nitrogen (N), 51%
elemental phosphorus (P), and 20% elemental
potassium (K). We will not get into the micronutrients
also necessary, especially when it comes to fertilizer-
intensive agriculture, but suffice it to say that N, P
and K are not sufficient to sustainably use soil for
higher volume crops. As mentioned above, phosphate
and potash production also use NG, so natural gas is
extremely important when it comes to high-scale food
production.
Interestingly however, the production of the staple
foods that are eaten in different parts of the developing
countries is usually in the hands of small farmers,
and the latter have not traditionally used fertilizers.
Fertilizers are used in developing countries mainly
for “higher-value crops”, and these are often for
export. Fertilizer companies are attempting to
persuade small farmers to use fertilizers, but it appears
that they have been only partially successful.
Therefore not only will the Gas Peak come after the
Oil Peak, the Gas Peak, when it arrives, may not be
as much of a “second hit” to the people in the large
cites in developing countries as “The Theory”
assumed. That being said, there are reports that the
interval between the Oil Peak and the Gas Peak may
not be as much as the approximately 15 years or so
as indicated above.13
What Proportion of the Cost of Local Food
Is Due to Transportation?
If Gas Peak fertilizer costs may not present an early
or major hardship, there is a need to determine how
vulnerable the poor in the large cites in developing
countries will be to increasing Peak Oil transportation
costs. More directly, what proportion of the food cost
to those billions of poor people reflects transportation
costs? It is clear that trucking is the main means of
moving food from outlying farms to people in the
cities; most of these cities are not served by efficient
train service which can serve this purpose. If
transportation is, say 20% of the total cost of food
before the Oil Peak drives up gasoline prices, and
gasoline prices double, the resulting 40% of total food
costs due to transportation could conceivably be more
than the margin of survival for a very large number
of poor people. Only limited detailed information on
these costs is available.
Very few formal publications dealing specifically
with the effect of the Oil Peak on developing countries
are available. There are many treatises on how the
USA will be affected. For example, an article on the
US Department of Agriculture’s website dealing with
food distribution in Thailand that appeared
promising, discussed only the level of penetration that
Walmart (!) had achieved in the country.
One of the few useful articles on transportation costs
was from the Washington-based “International Food
Policy Research Institute”, and began with the words
“IFPRI’s vision is a world free of hunger and
malnutrition.” The IFPRI report states:
“Much of the expected higher cost of feeding cities
is likely to be accounted for by transportation costs
as well as by post-harvest food losses from
inappropriate food handling and packaging, the
need to collect food from a large number of small
farmers, and frequent delays from road check
points and (often illegal) taxation. These food
losses can be as high as 35 percent for perishable
food products, while transportation costs can
reach as high as 90 percent of the overall food
marketing margin.”14
Although 90% is a shockingly high figure, its use is
not sufficiently reliable to determine conclusions that
have a general application. Perhaps the best
information on transportation costs consists of
qualitative reports that may be of limited value in
statistical terms, but ring true from the point of view
of grass-roots knowledge of the reality of life. An
example of these reports is comments about a
statement by the US oil guru, energy investment
banker Matthew Simmons, in which he said that
“… some third world countries may adapt better as
they don’t have so far to fall.” A reader of that
statement who had lived and worked in two Central
American countries commented:
“…Cities are densely populated and rely on fuel
to transport food into the urban areas.
I would be very worried if fuel would become
more than just expensive but also scarce.
The spectre of starvation would be very real in
Nicaragua and Guatemala should fuel
become scarce.
Let’s not even talk about what global warming
has planned for them.
In sum, Simmons is overly optimistic about the
effects of peak oil on third world countries.
Population densities would exceed the
carrying capacities of many of the places I
have seen. Extrapolating to cities like Mexico
City, etc. would not bode well for the
populations under severe peak oil
conditions.”15
In spite of the lack of hard figures on food
transportation costs before the Oil Peak has really
begun to bite, The Theory seems to have some
support, and certainly nothing to discredit it. As a
working hypothesis, it does seem safe to assume that
people in the large cites in developing countries will
indeed be hard-pressed when the Oil Peak drives up
the local costs of transporting their staples to the city
from outlying fields. Before predicting catastrophe
however, more detailed and reliable information is
necessary.
The evidence above does not provide an airtight
argument about Oil Peak-induced famines resulting
in die-offs. Nevertheless, considering the many
indications of overshoot, die-offs seem inevitable
eventually.
The Effects of the Two Peaks on Large
Cities in Developing Countries
Even if it is not certain that famine will strike
developing country cities as oil prices rise, it is
legitimate to envisage how the poor will be affected.
Recent food riots and ongoing migration pressures
give some good indications.
In January 2007, protests broke out across Mexico
because of a rapid price increase in corn flour, an
increase related to US and Mexican corn growers
converting agricultural land to biofuel production.
37
 “United States ethanol production increased from
1.6 billion gallons in 2000 to 5 billion gallons in
2006. Effective September 2007, land used for
ethanol production has resulted in the diversion
of 20 percent of the U.S. corn crop, an amount
that could increase to as high as 50 percent this
year.”16
“Facing the Mexican food riots, President
Calderon found himself caught between the corn
importers and multinationals and Mexico’s
teeming poor. In the end he compromised.
Calderon capped the price of flour at 78 cents per
kilogram but made the scheme voluntary for
businesses. So far the price has largely stabilised
but many are becoming increasingly concerned
that Mexico’s tortilla wars were simply the sign
of things to come.”16
The lesson is clear. If food prices rise, there is bound
to be social instability among the poor in the large
cites in developing countries. Whether political
leaders in other countries will be in a position to
negotiate an agreement similar to the agreement
negotiated by Mexico’s president is not at all certain.
Whether food prices go up slowly or quickly, it seems
certain that emigration pressures from developing
countries toward developed countries will increase.
It is difficult to obtain figures, but media reports
continue to be received about illegal African
immigration into the southern countries of Europe.
Detention centres are located in the Canary Islands
and Italy. Illegal Middle Eastern immigration to
Europe continues, as does Latin American migration
into the USA and Canada. These movements of
people are signs of the often tragic circumstances of
hundreds of thousands of people who simply wish to
have a better life. From the point of view of the
developed countries, any measures to relieve the
differences in standards of living between the
developed and the developing countries will decrease
migration pressures. It is doubtful, however,
considering past performance, if appropriate measures
will be adopted to lessen the effects of Peak Oil and
Peak Gas.
38
A weakness of The Theory, even before testing, is
that any generalization about life in large cities in the
developing countries is less than reliable. There are
many differences between countries in the developing
world, and economic, geographic and cultural
categories are only a beginning. For example, if
Mexican President Calderon was able to find a
compromise between the public and Mexican
producers it cannot be ignored that revenue into the
Mexican government coffers from oil royalties
provides room to manoeuvre not available to other
governments of developing countries. It is
unnecessary to record the numerous differences
among the large cities of the developing countries.
This being said, the fact that all large cities of the
developing countries have a high proportion of people
who are dependent on food supplied from adjacent
farm areas creates a common vulnerability that will
become increasingly evident with the approach of
Peak Oil.
Conclusions
Because of a lack of hard information on what portion
of food prices in large cites in developing countries
can be attributed to transportation costs, it has been
difficult to get a precise measure of the vulnerability
of the poor within these cities. Nevertheless,
elementary logic and less than complete information
lead us to conclude that the poor of the large cities, a
proportion that is now above 50% in some cities, will
be hard pressed to survive constantly rising food
prices brought on by the combination of Peak Oil and
Peak Gas.
The large population in many cities of the developing
world increases the vulnerability to all persons in these
cities. The logistics of feeding ten or more millions
of people in a city are challenging. The forecasts of
additional urban population increases the level of
concern, particularly when both transportation and
fertilizer costs continue to increase. As mentioned
above, it is fortunate that the Oil Peak is some 15
years ahead of the fertilizer-dependent Gas Peak.
It is tempting to make the intellectual leap from the
above information to predict what will happen in the
developing countries when the Oil and Gas Peaks

begin to impact overpopulation and continued
population growth. However, this broader problem
is outside of the scope of the present paper.
Nevertheless, it must be recalled that the two Peaks
are only two of the many aspects of environmental
collapse; it is through the interaction of many
environmental and resource depletion problems that
planet Earth will continue to be degraded unless
concerted attempts are made to decrease population
and consumption. To quote the UN Environmental
Program’s fourth Global Environmental Outlook that
was released in October 2007, “As a result of the
growing competition and demand for global
resources, the world’s population has reached a stage
where the amount of resources needed to sustain it
exceeds what is available.”17
References
1
The author acknowledges the generous assistance of
officials from CIDA, the Canadian International
Development Agency, notably: Maggie Patterson, Kamoji
Wachira, and David Johnston.
2
Meadows, Donella H.; Meadows, Dennis L.; Randers,
Jorgen; Behrens III, William W. Limits to Growth.
Universe Books
3
Meadows, Donella; Randers, Jorgen; Meadows, Dennis.
Limits to Growth, The 30-Year Update. Chelsea Green
Publishing Company, White River Junction, Vermont.
2004.
4
Heinberg, Richard. The Party’s Over; Oil, War and the
Fate of Industrial Societies. New Society Publishers,
Gabriola Island, BC, V0R 1X0, Canada. 2003
5
Heinberg, Richard. Powerdown; Options and Actions
for a Post-Carbon World. New Society Publishers,
Gabriola Island, BC, V0R 1X0, Canada. 2004
6
Bériault, Robert. Peak Oil and the Fate of Humanity.
Available on the Web at :
http://www.peakoilandhumanity.com/
7
Pfeiffer, Dale Allen. Eating Fossil Fuels. Available on
the Web at: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/
100303_eating_oil.html
8
Ruppert, Michael C. From the Wilderness Publications
website, at: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/
100303_eating_oil.html
9
Chefurka, Paul. From a telephone conversation of
October 21, 2007.
10
Aragrande, Maurizio; Argenti, Olivio. Food into Cities
Collection No. 3, Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations, Rome, 2001. Introduction, p. 1
11
Chefurka, Paul. World Energy to 2050, A Half Century
of Decline, “Timing”. On website at http://
www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP2/WEAP2.html
12
Ibid. “Natural Gas” in same web article.
13
The author is grateful for much valuable information on
fertilizers from Ray Dowbenko, of Agrium, a major
fertilizer company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta.
14
Argenti, Olivio. Feeding the Cities: Food Supply and
Distribution. 2020 Focus No. 03, Achieving Urban Food
and Nutrition Security in the Developing World. Edited
by James L. Garrett and Marie T. Ruel. August 2000. On
Web at http://www.ifpri.org/2020/focus/focus03.asp#dl
15
Yosemite, Sam (Web name) on September 15, 2005 -
1:31pm. The Oil Drum,
Discussions about Energy and Our Future. On web at
http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:11xsu7_AgHAJ:
www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/9/15/13751/
2071+Simmons+%22countries+may+adapt+better+
%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=ca
16
Taylor, Jerome. How the rising price of corn made
Mexicans take to streets. The Independent, 23 June 2007.
On the Web at: http://news.independent.co.uk/world/
americas/article2697788.ece
17
United Nations Environmental Program’s Global
Environment Outlook: Environment for Development
(GEO-4). Regional Perspectives: 1987–2007. Chapter
6: Sustaining a Common Future. Page 201, Box 6.1. On
the Web at http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/report/
06_Regional_Perspectives.pdf
39
 The Introduction of Plug-In
Hybrid Electric Vehicles and the
Evolution of the Electrical Network Towards
the Hydrogen Economy

by John H. Walsh

John H. Walsh was born in Montreal and educated at McGill University and Massachusetts Institute
of Technology. A Professional Engineer, he served for 30 years with Natural Resources Canada in
research and policy. He has written extensively on energy related issues, and has taken a special
interest in technologies for the control of carbon dioxide emissions.

Abstract
A successful approach to the twin problems of peak oil and the need to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide to
the atmosphere from the fossil fuels should also include a way of dealing with vehicles, particularly as their
numbers increase rapidly in large developing countries such as Brazil, China and India. The Plug-In Hybrid
Vehicle (PHEV) is an important option because over 90% of the energy needs of the transportation sector
come from oil, because something approaching 70% of the oil used in a developed country is consumed for
transportation purposes, because world oil consumption accounted for 41.3% of the world carbon dioxide
emissions from the fossil fuels in 2006, and because it has been found that some 78% of the commuters in the
U.S.A. drive 64.5 km. (40 miles) or less to work. This paper examines the impact of a major option of this
kind on the electrical network, on the means of generating the necessary extra power needed, and on the
smooth linkage to a future hydrogen economy.

The main conclusions of this paper are that the
deployment of up to one million PHEVs (or even
more) can be supported by the electrical network now
with only minor modifications needed in most parts
of Canada, and that this approach depends critically
upon the success of the current efforts to improve the
lithium-ion battery system. It is also clear that a
continuing and stable electrical network remains
essential since distributed generation (generation in
the home, etc.) will not supply the needed extra
energy, particularly at night when most of the vehicles
will be recharged. It is also likely two quite different
coal-using processes will be needed for the further
expansion of this option in the future to keep the
network in balance – one based upon combustion and
the other gasification – with both equipped for the
capture and sequestering of carbon dioxide. It is
difficult to envision the PHEV option becoming the
main path to the future for cars without the expansion
of nuclear generation, particularly in Ontario. It is
also shown that the widespread adoption of PHEVs
leads to a seamless path to the ultimate hydrogen
economy.
Introduction
The Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) is a
technological response to both the need to cope with
the approaching peak in the world production of
conventional oil within the next decade or so and the
need to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide from the

40
fossil fuels to combat global climate change. The
reasons for the present interest in this option may be
summarized as arising from the following four
statistical facts:
• Over 90% of the energy requirements of the
transportation sector are derived from oil;
• Developed economies tend to devote something
approaching 70% of their total requirement for
oil to the transportation sector;
• World oil consumption accounted for 41.3% of
the emissions of carbon dioxide from the fossil
fuels in 2006; and
• Most cars are used much of the time for short
trips, and this effect is typically quoted in terms
such as 78% of the commuters in the U.S.A.
drive 64.5 KM (40 miles) or less to work.
The successful development of a superior battery is
required to make this and its cousin option – the all-
electric vehicle – possible. At the present time, it
appears likely the lithium hydride battery systems
now under intense investigation will become available
within the next few years with sufficient storage
capacity, the ability to tolerate an acceptable number
of charging and discharging cycles, good safety, and
reasonable cost to permit the PHEV option to deploy
widely. Success is by no means certain since there
are many hurdles still to be overcome in the
manufacturing process. There are, however, other
battery systems that could find a role in cars of the
PHEV type, as might the development of superior
capacitors used either alone or in conjunction with
batteries. The first PHEVs are now appearing as third
party conversions of production models of hybrid
cars. The Toyoto Company has announced that a
production version based upon its well known Prius
model will be tested in street service in Japan in the
coming year. Equipped with the more limited Nickel/
Metal Hydride batteries, the all-electric range is
announced as 13 kilometres (8 miles). General Motors
Corporation has announced its Chevrolet ‘Volt’ model
(all-electric drive design with on board motor-
generator back-up) will become available for testing
in 2008 with serial production scheduled for late 2010.
Its all-electric range is announced as 64.5 km (40
miles) based upon a new type of lithium-ion hydride
battery. Other auto manufacturers are in various stages
of the development of plug-in vehicles.
The PHEV option is also supported by some other
factors. Cars of this class might be sold the same way
as personal computers where a certain basic minimum
memory capacity is provided that may be augmented
as required by users. For those with only a short
commute, the basic battery provided might be all that
is necessary, while those who must travel further on
their daily activities could opt for additional costly
(and heavier) storage capacity. The battery system
itself may be leased rather than sold to reduce the
first cost of the vehicle, and to provide the purchaser
with some additional protection in case of premature
failure of this the most vulnerable part of the vehicle.
There is also in effect an automatic subsidy for this
option in the early stages of its widespread
deployment since the electrical supply does not attract
road tax at present. This tax substantially increases
the price of gasoline at the pump; this discriminatory
tax situation could well continue for some years as a
matter of policy.
Other attractive features include the ability to modify
PHEVs to return power to houses and other small
loads for emergency use during failures of the
network. Such a capability would have been very
useful in the ice storm that severely affected Eastern
Canada a few years ago. (There is a trial underway at
the Google Company in California in which a PHEV
car will be controlled through a WI-FI connection to
the Web to not only drop the charging load instantly
as required but signal the vehicle to begin supplying
energy to the grid at times of peak demand.) Under
Canadian winter conditions with no garage, electrical
energy supplied to recharge the battery could also
serve to preheat the vehicle prior to service. PHEV
vehicles can also be easily and reversibly set to control
maximum speed and distance within specified limits
and so be attractive to parents of teenage drivers.
This paper examines the effect on the electrical
network of a major PHEV option. It is assumed that
only simple instantaneous load-dropping by such
means as traditional carrier signals will be adopted
41
as have already been employed to remotely disconnect
hot water heaters and other larger energy users in
houses at peak times. An important finding in the
nearer term is that such a major new demand will
overwhelm the concurrent growth of distributed
generation and so make the preservation of the
integrity of the power grid more important than ever.
Another finding for the longer term is that the
widespread adoption of this class of vehicle can be
an important step towards a wider hydrogen option.
Concurrently with the deployment of large numbers
of PHEVs, there are reasons to believe a larger share
of the energy requirements for space conditioning will
also fall on the electrical network. This is primarily
due to the expected increase of natural gas prices
which will lead in turn to much better insulated
structures. At some point, the reduction in total energy
requirement falls to the extent that individual
householders and the like become more indifferent
to the higher heating cost of electricity. The greater
convenience and ease of control in both heating and
cooling modes, including the adoption of heat
exchange-based ventilation devices, and a lower first
cost may well, in many cases, more than off-set the
greater unit cost of the electricity. A very well
insulated house, favourably situated to benefit from
passive solar gains, may still be cheaper to heat with
natural gas but this extra cost may be so small that
the consumer will pay more for the greater
convenience of electricity. From a policy point of
view, there are also savings in obviating the need for
a natural gas distribution network in new housing
developments. The emergency aspect must also be
considered in that if there is a failure in natural gas
supply for any reason, people will inevitably turn on
their small electric heaters and stoves to keep warm.
The possibility of two major new markets expanding
the demand for electricity in the near future
concurrently – to meet the needs of a growing fleet
of PHEVs and an additional fraction of space
conditioning needs – makes it all the more important
to examine the conditions required to both supply and
maintain the stability of the electrical network with
these new loads.
42
The Characteristics of the Canadian
Electrical Supply System
The development of the electrical network in itself
has been recognized by electrical engineers as one of
the great technical developments of history. The
network will be considered here as the linkage
between the main generation located at the core of
the electrical system to the many consumers located
at the periphery. The centralized generation at the core
may consist of hydroelectric and nuclear installations
working full time in base load mode, fossil fuel units
operating both in base load and shoulder load modes,
and combined-cycle natural gas-based turbines
operating to meet both shoulder and peak-loads. The
growing component of wind generation at the core
depends upon the speed of the wind and its timing.
Aside from the core generation, over time, there will
be increasing small scale output located at the
periphery of the network derived from micro wind
turbines and solar panels, from small natural gas-
driven engines (either small reciprocating engines or
micro gas turbines) and high temperature fuel cells
which supply both power and heating/cooling service
to houses and other small establishments. The
effective deployment of such distributed generation
depends upon the ability of the network to absorb
and re-distribute power provided from such sources
at certain times and load conditions. The network must
also retain the ability to supply energy back to homes
and other such local sources when this distributed
generation is insufficient. Large-scale co-generation,
usually based upon natural gas, though important, is
not considered here because its adoption depends
upon site-specific matching conditions for heat and
power needs in oil refineries, hospitals, processing
industries, large commercial establishments, and the
like. In the case of Alberta, such co-generation in the
oil sands context may reach very high levels as the
rapid expansion of this industry continues.
According to the Canadian Energy Overview
published by the National Energy Board in 2007, the
nation’s total installed capacity was 123 gigawatts
(GW) at the end of 2006, an increase of only 54 MW
from 2005. The corresponding generation in 2006 was
353 TWH, a minor decline from the 358 TWH
supplied in 2005. The capacity to generate power from
the wind more than doubled in 2006 to reach 1,460
MW at year-end. It is interesting that Alberta had
established a 900 MW limit for wind generation in
that Province, as compared to the present capacity of
384 MW, because of concerns related to reliability
problems associated with managing expanded wind
generation on its integrated power system but this
limit has now been rescinded.
There are striking differences in the way electricity
is generated in various regions of the country. Overall,
hydropower, thermal, and nuclear facilities accounted
for some 60, 24, and 16 percent respectively of total
Canadian generation in 2006. But this break down
gives a misleading indication of the regional situation
obtaining in any one province. British Columbia and
Quebec rely heavily on hydropower; Alberta,
Saskatchewan, and parts of the Atlantic Provinces rely
to varying extents on the fossil fuels; and Ontario is
supplied from a mix of hydropower, nuclear reactors
and generation from coal though this latter source is
being phased-out over time as a matter of policy.
Another distinguishing feature of the Canadian
electrical system is the tendency for close integration
with the very large electrical systems to the south in
the U.S.A. as opposed to linkages across the county
although these are being strengthened.
Other relevant developments include the deployment
of Smart Meters in some provinces to allow
consumers to shift their consumption of energy to less
costly periods of the day. These metering devices will
eventually provide the means for returning distributed
generation from small home sources — mini wind
turbines and solar panels, etc. — to the network for
credit against overall power consumption in an
effective way.
For the early stages of the deployment of PHEVs,
regardless of the generation mix in any one province,
there appears to be sufficient off-peak capacity at
present to support a large number of such vehicles –
as many as one million or even more – although the
extra energy required would have to come from
somewhere. At margin outside of B.C. and Quebec,
the new requirement would tend to come increasingly
from fossil fuel sources given that the hydro and
nuclear capacity is generally operated continuously
in base load mode.
The Supply of Electricity for PHEVs
in the Early Stages of Their Deployment
The early stage of deployment will be considered here
as the period before there are one million vehicles
capable of connection to the network. A conservative
household power recharge rate of 1 KW per vehicle
will be assumed for the network as it now stands. A
re-charging period of ten hours would seem possible
for many of these vehicles overnight. With a million
vehicles, the maximum total connected load would
then be of the order of 1 GW and the off-peak energy
consumption would then be increased by 10 GWH
each night or 3650 GWH on the year. This amounts
to about one per cent of the generation in 2006. Thus
such a new load would seem manageable given a local
distribution of PHEVs approximately proportional to
the population in the regions of Canada. It is also
possible some recharging could be done during the
more expensive shoulder period during the day for a
period of about four hours in total without impinging
on the peak itself. Cold cities such as Edmonton
already make provision for plug-in vehicles equipped
with traditional block heaters although the power
requirement for these devices is usually less than 1
KW per car.
To transfer 10 KWH to the battery overnight is to
supply the car with the energy equivalent contained
in about one litre of gasoline on a First Law basis.
This energy is in the form of electricity that may be
fed directly to the motor in contrast to gasoline which
must be converted through a heat cycle to obtain
mechanical work. Even after compensating for the
losses associated with changing voltage, AC/DC
conversion, and the charging and discharging of the
battery, it will be equivalent on a Second Law basis
to at least two litres of gasoline. Under this
assumption, the 10 KWH charged overnight should
allow the car to be driven at least twice the distance
in electrical mode as this energy equivalent in the
form of gasoline supplied to the usual heat engine
cycle. For most PHEVs under development at present,
43
this suggests a typical maximum driving distance of
between 15 and 30 kilometres under all-electric
operation. Greater distances will require more battery
capacity and faster charging procedures which in turn
will require upgrades to the electrical supply for most
houses. Nevertheless, there is an option for a major
PHEV option before this major investment becomes
necessary.
The Effect of a Major PHEV Option
on the Distributed Generation Option
Simply stated, the main problem is that the timing of
the need for recharging the batteries in the vehicles
does not match the prospects for distributed local
electrical generation in houses, etc. very well. With
micro wind turbines, the generation depends upon the
state of the wind. In the case of solar panels, without
expensive storage facilities for generation during the
day, the contribution at night will be negligible. Even
in the case of mini co-generation based on natural
gas-fired engines of one kind or another, or even high-
temperature fuel cells, the peak heating requirement
for houses is rarely at night. This fundamental
mismatch means the electrical network will be
increasingly needed to play a balancing role with
greatly expanded distributed generation. In short, the
network will be needed more than ever with many
PHEVs in service.
The Effect of a Major PHEV Option on
Core Generation Requirements
The extra load on the electrical network arising from
the first million or so of PHEVs to enter service causes
the existing installed central generation facilities to
be operated for longer periods. The higher rate of
utilization is generally attractive to utilities because
increased revenue may be obtained from essentially
the same capital investment. There is additional
operating risk because there will be less down time
to conduct basic maintenance activities. It is generally
more difficult to expand the base load components
of the total installed capacity (due mainly to the higher
unit capital cost for hydro and nuclear facilities) than
the shoulder and peak load generation facilities.
Consequently, another result of an increased off-peak
load is to bring these latter facilities into service for a
44
disproportionately longer time. This means that
outside B.C. and Quebec, more of this extra load will
be generated from the fossil fuels. The result is the
reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from the PHEV
option may not be as great as when the extra energy
can be supplied from essentially the same average
overall mix of generation. The expansion of the wind
and some other variable renewable generation options
complicates the situation greatly. It would be ideal if
the wind blew hard at night, but unfortunately, in
many cases, the wind speed tends to moderate in those
hours.
A major PHEV option with its increasing night time
load will lead to a need for generation facilities of
moderate capital cost but with low emissions of
carbon dioxide. The expansion of hydro and nuclear
generation is expected to lag the new demand once
the deployment of these vehicles has started in a
serious way. It would also be helpful, at least in the
early stage, if this new capacity could be added
quickly in manageably small yet efficient increments
until the full extent of the need was clearly understood.
The emerging oxy-coal combustion option may prove
attractive for this purpose. Coal is combusted in
oxygen with the flame temperature reduced to
manageable levels by re-cycling part of the cooled
product flue gas. The advantage of this process is that
the flue gas produced has only two major constituents
— carbon dioxide and steam — from which the
carbon dioxide may be readily separated for
subsequent sequestering. The main disadvantage of
this approach is that expensive oxygen is required
for the combustion stage. It seems possible a process
of this kind would meet the moderate capital cost
requirement for smaller-sized units that could be
added to the generation mix within a reasonable
period of time. If there were to be an application for
the captured carbon dioxide, as may be the case in
Alberta and Saskatchewan for the enhanced recovery
of oil (and possibly to facilitate the extraction of
methane gas from coal seams in the future), the
economics of this combustion option are much
improved. Unfortunately, this market is rarely
profitable enough to make the new combustion
systems self-supporting under current conditions
unless encouraged by financial measures implement-
ed to combat carbon dioxide emissions. Despite the
added complications arising from flue gas re-
circulation and carbon dioxide capture, the time to
dispatch electrical energy from such installations
should be no greater than from conventional air-blown
powdered coal installations. The oxygen plant might
be equipped with enough storage capacity to permit
most of its production at off peak times to aid load
levelling.
The Relationship Between a Major PHEV
Option and the Hydrogen Economy
At a later time, given success, the growing PHEV
option might well coincide with the early stages of
the deployment hydrogen energy economy. At
present, the conventional reforming of natural gas is
the cheapest source of hydrogen except for certain
special cases such as the limited supply available now
from some oil refineries and the hydrogen that could
be separated from the coke oven gas (about 50%
hydrogen by volume) produced in the steel industry
as it has in the past. It is ironic that one of the cheapest
potential sources of hydrogen in Ontario (though
limited in quantity) is already produced from coal but
in the longer-term, large quantities could be produced
from this fuel in dedicated processes. It is also possible
that municipal solid waste could be processed by
thermal means such as by using the plasma heating
techniques now in pilot operations in Ottawa and
Montreal to produce a fuel gas from which hydrogen
may be separated. The higher prices for natural gas
expected in the future would be an impetus to the
supply of hydrogen from these more unconventional
sources.
Only small changes are necessary to the conventional
natural gas reforming process to capture about two-
thirds of the carbon entering with the natural gas as
the dioxide. Aside from the flue gas resulting from
the underfiring, there are two gases produced in the
process — hydrogen and carbon dioxide — and these
are presently separated as a routine step in the many
industrial-scale units in operation around the world.
Only relatively minor modifications are needed to
capture this fraction of the carbon dioxide for
sequestering. A steam of hydrogen may thus be
produced from natural gas with substantially less
carbon dioxide released to the atmosphere. The
hydrogen may be used to power gas turbines that
could be operated in the usual combined-cycle
configuration. This class of process has been proposed
in Norway, Scotland, and the U.S.A. in conjunction
with the provision of carbon dioxide to enhanced oil
recovery operations. Doubts about the operation of
large gas turbines consuming hydrogen as the fuel
have evidently been largely resolved. There is no
reason why the dispatch times with turbines fired with
hydrogen should be any different from their
conventional cousins fired with natural gas.
Information filed with the National Energy Board
from agreements with pipeline companies indicates
this time is of the order of five minutes.
The hydrogen produced in this way could also be used
to power vehicles equipped with either engines or fuel
cells. Much depends upon the development of a
successful way of bringing this hydrogen to market
as well as improved means to carry the hydrogen on
vehicles such as in tanks filled with the new carbon
nano materials to serve as carriers of this gas.
The next stage in the gradual evolution to a hydrogen
energy economy would be the installation of coal-
based units for hydrogen production. The usual
approach is to gasify the coal with oxygen in such a
way that little methane or other higher compounds of
carbon and hydrogen appear in the product gas such
as by using entrained-flow partial combustion
systems. The fuel gas produced will then consist
essentially of some mixture of carbon monoxide,
carbon dioxide, hydrogen and water vapour. After
removal of sulphur and other minor impurities, the
carbon monoxide is ‘shifted’ with additional steam
in multi-stages reactors such that this gas is converted
to mainly hydrogen and carbon dioxide. After
separation, the carbon dioxide is then sequestered.
As is the case of the conventional reforming of natural
gas equipped for carbon dioxide capture, the hydrogen
may be used either directly in fuel cell or compatible
engine-equipped vehicles, or to generate electricity
in gas turbines.
45
Thus it is quite possible two quite different coal
processes will be used in conjunction with each
other — a combustion technology and a gasification
process — because one may meet shoulder electrical
loads and the other peak requirements by the diversion
of its steady hydrogen production to turbines as
needed. In the particular process routes chosen here,
both share the need for oxygen although there are
other options. Unfortunately, with the current state
of the development of these two quite different
technologies, it is not entirely clear that the same type
of coal will be an optimal feed for both. Since both
capture carbon dioxide, they may share the pipeline
facilities used for its delivery to the sequestering site.
An important role for nuclear energy seems inevitable
to supply the additional energy required for a major
plug-in vehicle option. But whatever variant of
nuclear technology is used, due to its characteristically
high capital cost and relatively inflexible operational
requirements, there will always be the issue as to how
to keep the electrical network in balance. This issue
becomes more important as the unit capacity of
individual reactors increases over the years. Before a
large reactor enters service, the other options,
especially those based upon coal, will be heavily used,
only to be followed by a period of the reverse as
additional increments of base load nuclear generation
come on line. There are promising advances in the
storage of electricity, especially in the electrochemical
field (such as the new sodium/sulphur cells) that may
ease this situation.
The Electrolysis Link to the Hydrogen
Economy
When hydrogen is produced by the electrolysis of
water, further links are possible in an electrical system
already meeting the additional electrical load arising
from increasing numbers of PHEVs entering service.
The electrolysis approach helps overcome one of the
major difficulties in supplying hydrogen to markets
because the process lends itself to small-scale
decentralized production without great loss in
efficiency. The distribution losses in the electrical
network moving energy to these local units are likely
to be comparable to those arising from other methods
46
of transporting this gas when it is produced in
centralized production facilities. Small electrolysis
units may be located close to users in local garages
or even in individual houses. Minature compressors
are now available for use in home garages if high-
pressure gas is required by the on-board vehicle
storage system employed. Unfortunately, with small
local electrolysis units, it is unlikely the oxygen co-
product can find an economic use.
Production of Hydrogen in Centralized
Electrolysis Facilities
The main advantages of large centralized electrolysis
processes is that the oxygen co-product may be
captured for other uses. The larger quantities of
hydrogen produced in such installations may be
supplied to applications in industry such as chemical
processes and the reduction of iron oxide in the steel
industry. (One hydrogen-based process for the
reduction of iron ore has operated in the past at a
small but production scale; some Canadian iron ores
lend themselves to the high degree of enrichment
required for the best use of the reduced product in
electric furnace steelmaking processes.)
The most obvious use for the oxygen co-product is
in the coal-based combustion and gasification
processes. In the gasification case, the coal-based unit
may also be producing hydrogen off peak which
would augment the total supply to justify larger
pipelines or other more efficient distribution systems.
It is possible to envisage a remarkable combination
of facilities at locations such as sites on the Great
Lakes. Nuclear facilities need water and large fenced
and patrolled areas for safety and security reasons.
Coal combustion and gasification facilities require
lake access for the efficient delivery of coal as well
as for water. Large electrolysis units could be located
close to the coal facilities to consume the oxygen co-
product and share the supply system for water.
There are good reasons to consider such complexes
in an Ontario context. The product is both power and
hydrogen that together are needed by many industries.
But another major reason is for the control of the
electrical network. In such an energy complex, at peak
times, the electrolysis unit may be shut down instantly
(re-starting is slower) as required. The hydrogen from
the coal gasification facility may be diverted to the
generating turbines at dispatch times of the order of
five minutes. The PHEVs plugged in virtually
everywhere across the electrical system at peak times
may also be ‘shed’ essentially instantaneously by
modern electronic means. The interplay among these
options makes it possible to operate the network much
closer to its maximum installed capacity.
The one major snag for application in Ontario is that
so few carbon dioxide storage sites have been
identified so far. There are, however, depleted natural
gas reservoirs in the southwestern region of the
province that might be used. The advantage of such
energy complexes for meeting the energy needs of
Ontario is that this class of solution can be approached
incrementally applying the various technologies as
they are perfected. It only requires foresight to fit them
together in the best possible way.
Conclusion
This paper was prepared during a period of
unprecedented activity across the full range of the
field of energy technology. Advances are occurring
almost daily. There can be little doubt there will be
unexpected and unpredictable developments in many
fields that will materially affect the future.
Nevertheless, it is possible to draw conclusions that
are valid in Canada now and will be for perhaps for
as long as a few more decades:
• A major Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle
(PHEV) option (up to one million vehicles)
can be supported by the existing electrical
network with the need for only minor (if any)
modifications in most parts of Canada;
• The near-term option depends critically for
its success on the development of the
lithium-ion battery system, and a better
monitoring system is required to adequately
follow advances in this field;
• Despite the growth in distributed generation
to be expected over the next decades
particularly in the home, the electrical
network will remain essential not least
because PHEV vehicles should preferably
be re-charged at night;
• The integration of the growing large-scale
centralized wind generation option will also
require the balancing action of the grid;
• Two quite different coal processes will be
needed in the medium term: combustion
techniques to meet mid-range loads and
gasification processes to produce hydrogen
much of the time for other uses including
the powering of fuel cell-equipped vehicles,
and generate power at peak times. The
importance of the latter technique is that the
generation of electricity from hydrogen in
gas turbines may serve to meet peak needs
in place of natural gas-fired turbines with
the same short characteristic dispatch times
if and when the price of gas increases. Both
classes of process should be equipped for
carbon capture and sequestration. Both may
consume oxygen derived from shared air
separation facilities;
• It is difficult to imagine the continuing
deployment of a major PHEV option without
the continued expansion of nuclear energy
in Ontario and perhaps in some other
provinces, and;
• The advent of a major PHEV option, taken
together with the evolution of the electrical
network to support, it leads naturally step-
by-step to an important hydrogen option for
the future.
John H. Walsh
19 Lambton Avenue, Ottawa, Ontario,
K1M 0Z6
Tel: 613-745-6279
E-Mail: jhwalsh@ca.inter.net
Web Site: pages.ca.inter.net/~jhwalsh/index.html
47
 Twelve Steps to True Democracy
by Henry Beissel

Henry Beissel, a former Professor at Concordia University, is a poet, playwright, and editor.
He taught English literature and creative writing at universities in Germany, the West Indies,
and Canada. At the time of his retirement in 1996 he was awarded the title of Distiguished
Emeritus Professor of Concordia University.

I was going to entitle this talk “Twelve Steps to Restore Democracy”, but I grew increasingly doubtful that
true democracy has ever existed, except perhaps in the very distant past. At a time before the Neolithic
revolution our hunter-gatherer ancestors, drifting in small groups with the seasons, were able to maintain
stable communities of equal partners. Significant elements of their democratic practices survive in the
governing style of our First Nations, and the new territory of Nunavut is currently governing by consensus
and without political parties. But for what has become Western Civilization, at the dawn of settlement and
farming, when means and ways to amass possessions and eventually fortunes became available, the selfish
gene began to turn human relationships into a battle for domination – with the predictable result of millennia
of tyranny and warfare.

But the indomitable human spirit struggled against
the dictatorship of our lowest instincts for aggression
and exploitation. Democratic practices returned and,
in our Western civilization, democracy became a
viable form of political governance 2,500 years ago
in Athens and other Greek city-states. It was flawed
and its practice lasted barely two centuriesi before it
was crushed under the boots of a Macedonian army.
But the dream of democracy lived on. Its struggle
against the reality of oppression and tyranny finally
triumphed in 18th century Enlightenment when the
American Declaration of Independence (1776)
affirmed it to be self-evident, that all Men are created
equal, that they are endowed… with inalienable
Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the
Pursuit of Happiness – that to secure these Rights,
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their
just Powers from the Consent of the Governed…
These principles, along with their succinct summation
in the rallying call of the French Revolution – Liberté,
Egalité, Fraternité! – has become the universal
standard of liberal democracy in our time. What they
demand is that a nation be ruled by, in Daniel
Webster’s phrase, the people’s government, made for
the people, made by the people, and answerable to
the people.
In the 21st century, most countries in the world
consider themselves democracies, but few, if any,
satisfy Webster’s lofty definition. Old World countries
like England and France, straddled with stultifying
legacies of colonialism and class-consciousness,
practice a democracy often difficult to distinguish
from oligarchy where the populace is largely reduced
to rubber-stamping the policies of an elite. In New
World democracies, like those of many African
nations struggling with extreme poverty and
neocolonialism, government is often a more or less
concealed form of autocracy. The Democratic
People’s Republic of North Korea is a brutal one-
party dictatorship; Russians currently enjoy a form
of government the Kremlin describes as “managed
democracy”, a one-man, one-party rule that includes
censorship of the media, persecution of dissidents,
and a war of ethnic cleansing in Chechnya; and in
the USA, the cradle of modern democracy, democracy
has become a two-party plutocracy determined to
maintain the illusion of freedom and social justice to

48
mask a very different reality in which greed and
wealth rule.
In the face of this situation, an extra-terrestrial visitor
would surely be challenged to understand what we
mean by liberty. She might be even more perplexed
to hear the loud, universal proclamations and
protestations of the equality of people and yet to find
herself on a planet where 50% of the total global
wealth is in the hands of a single nation that constitutes
less than 5% of the world’s population, and where
half the inhabitantsii live on less than $2 a day whereas
the average income of people in the Developed World
is closer to $60 or $70 a day, and for some rare species
of homo mercatorius known as CEOs it is more than
$400,000 a day or $50,000 an hour.iii
Our untutored extra-terrestrial might also have a
problem appreciating our sense of fraternity when
confronted with the fact that on this earth a billion
people go hungry every day, and that 11 million
children under the age of five die every year from
preventable diseases and starvation; that’s about
twenty every minute, or about a thousand during my
talk. She could easily misapprehend democracy and
conclude that for most of our species happiness
means the pursuit of poverty and starvation.
She might be equally puzzled by our system of
justice. In Canada, we have advanced a long way
towards making every citizen equal before the law,
but, as is demonstrated by the many cases of innocent
people who spend decades in prison before receiving
justice, we have a long way to go yet. The fact of the
matter is that money buys justice – not always or
absolutely, but often enough to give us concern. Many
a criminal has walked away from his or her crime
because they could afford a team of shyster lawyers
who twisted the letter of the law to pervert its spirit.
By the same token, innocent people are often
condemned because they cannot afford the legal
defence to protect them from shyster police officers
willing to falsify evidence to advance their careers.
So much for egalité before the law.
The problem starts at ground level. To someone
earning a minimum wage, a $100 fine for a traffic
violation constitutes ten hours of work; someone
earning $600 an hour can work off the same fine in
ten minutes, and in Canada, any one of the top 40
CEOs, who have to make do with a meagre average
of $15 million a year, can take care of his fine with
all of 5 seconds or less of hard labour. Compare this
to Finland, a country more advanced in democratic
procedures, where such fines are determined in
proportion to the offender’s income, and our $600-
an-hour individual would have to pay $6,000 for the
same offence for which the minimum-wage earner
pays $100. That is what equality before the law means.
Until we eliminate the now astronomical gap between
top earners and the majority of working people by
making income correspond more fairly to the
contribution an individual makes to society, we shall
not have equal justice for all.
In a society governed by and for the people, such
issues can be addressed, but we have no such
government either in Canada or anywhere in Western
society, except perhaps in some of the Scandinavian
countries. For a demonstration of the growing distance
separating people from their government, we need
go no further than the recent war against Iraq.
According to polls, the attack on Iraq had the support
of only 37%iv of the American people, and yet an
overwhelming majority of their elected
representatives both in Congress and in the Senate
empowered their President, in great haste and with
little real dissentv, to unleash war on Iraq on a pretext
so transparently false that it resulted in global derision
of the White House. Polls in democratic England and
democratic Spain indicated that 80% of the population
in both countries were opposed to joining the US
invasion, but their elected leaders took their countries
to war anyway.
Clearly, across the world, the mechanisms of
democratic procedure are not working. Not even the
UN was able to prevent the US/UK invasion of Iraq
which was supported by a tiny “coalition force” from
other nations. This support came not from people but
from governments coerced or bought to provide a fig
leaf to conceal the obscenity of the war. The true
reason for invading Iraq exposes the cancer that is
destroying democracy—greed, the greed of those in
49
power. War was forced on Iraq to secure diminishing
oil supplies to countries whose wealth is dependent
on cheap energy, and to sustain the illusion of a free-
market economy – an industry that thrives on products
with built-in, instant obsolescence. War is the ultimate
apotheosis of consumerism. It makes every capitalist’s
dream come true: the redistribution of money from
the pockets of the people who pay for the war
(sometimes also with their lives), into the bank
accounts of those who (at a safe distance from any
military action) manufacture and deal in products
intended to self-destruct and kill as many people as
possible in the process. War is Big Business.
Canada’s refusal to join in the war against Iraq
certainly reflects our moral sensibilities and does
suggest that our democratic structures are not yet
completely corroded. The military-industrial complex
is not (yet) as powerful here as it is in the USA, but
there are ominous signs that this is changing. Polls
indicate consistently that our military engagement in
Afghanistan is not supported by a majority of
Canadians. Yet Mr. Harper, leader of a minority
government, misses no opportunity to promote it quite
shamelessly as a heroic national effort and sends an
army general on a promotional tour to work the
crowds with “Support Our Troops” jingoism to whip
up enthusiasm for what is, to say the least, a morally
dubious enterprise. The gradual militarization of
Canadian attitudes away from peace missions to
aggressive interventions employing the gunship
diplomacy the Bush administration favours is one
more sign that our democracy is in rapid decline. But
I’ve kept the worst for the last. The most serious
disconnect between our government and the people
of Canada is occurring over the catastrophic
developments in our environment.
The population explosion, peak oil, the pollution of
the water we drink and the air we breathe, the growing
threat of a pandemic, rapidly increasing extreme
weather conditions, the depletion of fish stocks, the
disappearance of the rainforests and the spread of the
world’s deserts – these are the alarming signs of a
planet in deep trouble. The evidence that we human
beings are primarily, and probably solely, responsible
for this is now incontrovertible. If it is, as I think,
50
already too late, to prevent apocalyptic events in the
near future, we have only ourselves to blame – our
lack of democratic political leadership and our
propensity for denial in the face of danger. Rachel
Carson’s Silent Spring in 1962, and the Club of
Rome’s Limits to Growth in 1972, sent out a clear
signal that our world was in trouble, but the warnings
were ignored until the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 took
the first tentative steps to reduce greenhouse gases.
We may look good next to the USA, the world’s
biggest polluter, which has refused to this day even
to sign the Kyoto Protocol, but our government has
spent ten years procrastinating, and even now it is
waffling about in what time frame we will manage to
meet the Kyoto emission limits which were known
to be inadequate at the time they were adopted and
are now laughable in the face of the catastrophic
climate changes we are witnessing.
Only suicidal maniacs proceed cheerfully and
confidently to self-destruct. Why are we doing this?
Because our democratic government is the executor
of the will of the corporate estate for whom economic
growth and maximization of profit are the very
purpose and meaning of existence. We are all guilty
because we have allowed ourselves to be drawn into
that deadly dance of consumerism, albeit to different
degrees, and we shall all pay the price. However, there
is still a chance for us to preserve a small viable habitat
on this planet for our children’s children, but to secure
it we need to make drastic changes to our lifestyle
and to our whole attitude towards the environment,
and we need to make them now. These changes are
going to be costly and they mean an end to the new
religion of the free market and continuous economic
growth. That’s why they are not going to be supported
by Big Business or by the governments that operate
by the good graces of capitalism. If we are ever to
take the necessary steps to reverse our headlong rush
into an abyss of death and destruction that will mean
the end of civilization, we need to create a government
of, by and for the people. Perhaps because the first
victims of our disastrous pollution of the planet are
ordinary people, there are more voices of common
sense emanating from them, more willingness to
change and make sacrifices, more sensitivity to the
needs of our environment. It may not be enough, but
it is our only chance.
But, some of you might ask, is democracy the answer?
Our commitment to democracy hinges on our answer
to the question about the moral nature of human
beings. “Democracy,” said Winston Churchill, “is the
worst form of government – except all those other
forms that have been tried from time to time.” The
acid wit of the remark cannot conceal the contempt
for the commoner so characteristic of the upper
classes, a contempt that has a long history, going at
least as far back as Plato whose Republic calls for
government by an oligarchy of “Guardians”, men of
integrity and expertise, who are to lead the ignorant
masses in the ways of the common good. Similar
views were argued in more recent history by political
thinkers like Edmund Burke and Alexis de
Tocqueville. Here is what Walter Lippmann said in
1927:
“The individual man… does not know how to
direct public affairs. He does not know what is
happening, why it is happening, what ought to
happen. I cannot imagine how he could know, and
there is not the least reason for thinking, as
mystical democrats have thought, that the
compounding of individual ignorances in masses
of people can produce a continuous directing force
in public affairs. …The public must be put in its
place…so that each of us may live free of the
trampling and the roar of the bewildered herd.”vi
This attitude does not support true democracy. At best,
it calls for a government by an elite for the people,
and sooner or later that turns into government by, of
and for an elite. History provides much disturbing
evidence of crowds behaving like a “bewildered herd”
trampling our individual rights, but there is even more
evidence of human beings behaving spontaneously
with kindness, solidarity, consideration, respect, and
yes, love, which humans bestow upon each other daily
all across the globe. I am prepared to make the case
that most acts of inhumanity are the result of
misinformation, demagoguery, manipulation, and,
above all, ignorance bred by the very institutions
professing to do away with it, whereas our acts of
compassion and mutual help come more naturally to
us. We witness it in the outpouring of emotional
support and financial aid whenever an individual or
nations are visited by misfortune and disaster. Such
acts of genuine human fellowship and sacrifice go
largely unreported in the media unless they provide
the kind of sensation that attended the recent tsunami
disaster. Murder and mayhem make better copy in
the media, but it is the small acts of decency and
compassion that provide the binding material holding
human society together. Without it we would have
perished millennia ago.
That is why I put my faith in the common sense and
decency of ordinary people. If we want the world to
draw back from the edge of disaster and the inevitable
barbarism that will follow, we must place the decision-
making power in the hands of those whose future most
directly depends on the triumph of a true community
spirit over the egotistical profit-making mania that
has led us to the edge of the abyss. It’s a slim chance,
I admit. It may be that we are simply acting out the
law of nature William Catton Junior has identified in
Overshoot (1982), according to which any species
that finds itself suddenly, through whatever
circumstances of adaptation or mutation, especially
well equipped to expand, dominate and occupy a
given habitat will inevitably overshoot the carrying
capacity of that habitat and succumb in the resulting
crash and die-off.
I prefer to think that recognizing a danger is the first
step to averting it. I prefer to take my chances with
the best humanity is capable of. Only human beings
can solve the problems of living in a world that has
definite limits to the levels of comfort, happiness and
dignity it can sustain. What we need is an articulate
political platform, a manifesto even, designed to help
democracy mutate so it can survive in the new
environment of multinational corporate power and
media manipulation that threaten to render it extinct.
That’s why I’ve come to you who, as associates of
the Club of Rome, understand the gravity of our
situation and have made strenuous efforts over many
years to bring people and governments to their senses.
Mine is just another such effort. What I’m proposing
are twelve steps for people to take back their
51
governments. Brace yourselves: they are radical steps
in the original sense of the word ‘radical’ from the
Latin radix, root. Radical treatments are never
pleasant, but if they save your life they’re worth it.
You can cure an ailment only by going to the root
cause, not by patching over its symptoms as we have
been doing with our sick environment.
Democracy has come to us in two giant historical
steps: constitutional monarchy which placed
restrictions on the absolute power of rulers through a
parliamentary body, at first representing members of
the church and of the aristocracy, and then
representative democracy which enfranchised all
people, men and women, to elect a body of
representatives responsible for the affairs of the
nation. The time has come to take the next step:
participatory democracy, i.e. the establishment of
a form of government that reflects the general make-
up of the society it governs, involves all citizens as
directly as possible in the decision-making process,
and remains accountable to the electorate at all times.
It is nothing less than the final democratization of
democracy, and here are twelve steps that can take us
there.
Step 1:
Canada’s current representative democracy does not
govern by the will of the majority. For a political party
to have a majority of seats in the House of Commons,
it needs the support of only a minority of the
electorate. Since only the votes of the winning
candidate in each riding count, those voting for the
others might as well stay home. Most elected MPs
represent only a minority of eligible voters in their
riding. In 2000, to take a recent example of a
“majority” government, the Liberals elected 172
members, i.e. slightly more than 57% of the seats. In
actual fact, the Liberals received less than 41% of
the popular vote, and if you factor in that only 64%
of eligible voters cast a ballot, the Liberals represented
a mere 26% of the electorate. In the same election,
the PCs garnered 12 seats with a little over 12% of
the vote. Which means that the Liberals with less than
5 times the number of votes won 15 times the number
of seats. The same calculations apply to the other
parties. Clearly, our electoral system produces a
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parliament that does not represent the will of the
people as expressed by the ballots they cast. Step 1
towards establishing true democracy, therefore, is
Proportional Representation.
It so happens that Ontarians will have the opportunity
to take that step in a popular referendum as part of
the elections on October 10, and in the interest of our
future I hope they’ll take it. We have recently had a
presentation from the Ontario Citizens Assembly in
support of the Mixed Member Proportional
electoral system they have recommended. So I shall
not rehearse the many advantages of the system,
except to point out that it will address one of the most
serious problems afflicting democracy today – the
growing apathy, if not outright cynicism, of the
electorate towards politics, politicians and the political
process itself. Fewer and fewer people, specially
among the young, bother to exercise their right to
vote because they feel it won’t make any difference,
it won’t curb corruption in government or bring to
power people of integrity or of truly public spirit. The
proportion of the electorate voting has come
perilously close to, and sometimes has even fallen
below 50%. If that process continues oligarchy or
dictatorship will be the inevitable consequence.
Proportional representation will finally make true
what has been an empty slogan so far, namely that
every vote counts.
Step 2:
But it is not good enough for us to go to the polls
every four or five years to elect a bunch of politicians
who promise us a better future, only to renege on their
promises once they are in power. In order to hold them
to their promises I’m suggesting as Step 2 that well
in advance of elections, every political party must
publish in print the policies it proposes to pursue on
the major issues, including financial dispositions. If
elected to power, the party is obliged to follow its
program and cannot deviate from it without putting
the proposed changes to a referendum.
Step 3:
Whereas the horrendous expenses of media use make
political parties dependent on the wealthy sector of
society to raise the large amounts of money they
require to finance their promotions and campaigns,
and whereas these benefactors expect them to legislate
for their benefit, i.e. the benefit of large corporations
and wealthy individuals, and whereas their interests
are most often diametrically opposed to those of the
people at large, I suggest as Step 3 that all financial
contributions to political parties should go to an
impartially controlled fund that will distribute the
money among all the political parties represented in
the House in proportion to their actual representation.
Step 4:
In order to create level playing field for all eligible
political party to be able to place their policies before
the public, the media must provide equal time and
space free of charge to all parties and their candidates.
The amount of additional, paid-for publicity on behalf
of candidates and/or parties should be limited to
prevent money and charisma, instead of sound public
policies, from determining the outcome of elections.
Step 5:
In order to assure that MPs can honestly represent
the concerns and views of their constituents, it is
essential that they be free to vote at all times according
to what they decide is in the best interest of their
constituency. No political party shall penalize a
member for not voting with the party. It makes a
mockery of democracy to permit MPs a “free vote”
only on rare occasions when the leader permits them
to do so. This is dictatorship, not democracy.
Step 6:
Government decisions and the processes that lead to
them must be made more transparent. No government
official shall have the power to declare any
government document SECRET, except for a short
period not exceeding a month for the purpose of
showing cause before a judge why the document
should not be made accessible to the public. Except
where national security is demonstrably jeopardized,
such court approval shall be denied.
Step 7:
Just as parliament should reflect the popular vote
proportionally, so should the cabinet. So we should
establish the practice of choosing cabinet ministers
from all elected parties proportionate to the party
standings in the House.
Step 8:
To put an end to sycophancy and favouritism, cabinet
ministers are to be chosen by lot from among those
who have put their name in the hat. Those who fear
this would promote ministerial incompetence I invite
to take a close look at any crop of cabinet ministers.
One individual recently obtained her ministry by
selling her vote, hardly a demonstration of any
competence except in opportunism. The common
practice of cabinet shuffles that can move an
individual overnight from, say, Health to Justice
should be enough to cure us of the notion that
competence is a requirement for a government
ministry. The appropriate civil servants provide the
real know-how in all ministries.
Step 9:
Inasmuch as it constitutes a serious conflict of
interests for MPs to be the final arbiters of their own
income, all indemnities, salaries, pensions, and other
emoluments of MPs must be determined by an
independent body of citizens at arm’s length from
political interference. As an alternative, I would
suggest that MPs be paid the average income earned
by the people in the province whose constituency they
represent. Whatever option we choose, their income
should be brought closer to the income of the people
they are supposed to represent.
To those who would argue that modest salaries would
fail to attract the best minds for the job, I would say,
first of all, that I don’t see any evidence that
extravagant salaries have attracted the nation’s best
minds to government, and, secondly, that individuals
whose public spirit is inspired by the public purse
cannot be trusted with the nation’s business. The latest
figures I was able to obtain, show that MPs earn
$155,000; double that for the Prime Minister; cabinet
ministers earn $230,000. Considering that the House
generally sits about 100 days a year, and assuming
that every MP attends every session (and they don’t)
that constitutes about 5 months of a regular workload,
most of which consists of booing the opposition and
applauding your own team – unless you’re required
to do some extra work on a committee in which case
there is lots of extra cash. Of course, the rest of the
time our MPs work hard in their ridings, cutting
ribbons, sipping cocktails, shaking hands and
lunching with business and community leaders, all
to make sure they retain their sinecure at the next
elections. Their income for all these strenuous efforts
is at least 4 times the average income in Canada, not
53
counting an MP’s lucrative pensions.
In Athens, no one was paid to participate in the
democratic process; only the less affluent received a
small stipend to enable them to attend. Instead, we
have made of politics a lucrative profession that is
more likely to attract those who seek power, privilege
and money than individudals dedicated to public
service.
Step 10:
Politics is too serious a business to be left to
politicians. Any ordinary citizen should be able to
exercise the right to participate in government. Every
citizen is a politician for it requires nothing more than
the application of common sense to public affairs. To
ensure greater turnover of MPs, no one should be able
to be elected to parliament more than twice to
successive sessions.
One of the benefits of this would be to curb the growth
of corrupt, old-boys networks that now operate
throughout our political institutions. More
importantly, this stricture would put an end to the
notion of politics as a profession. The Greeks defined
Man as the zoon politikon, the political animal, and
for Aristotle an individual became fully human only
when he participated in the political process. An idiot
in Greek is a person ignorant of politics.
Representative democracy has made idiots of too
many citizens. To redress the problem, people need
to be more directly involved in the political process
This brings me to the last two of my suggestions,
perhaps the most important in ensuring that we
complete the third phase in the evolution of
democracy: to put governance into the hands of the
people and establish a truly participatory democracy,
Step 11:
To bring ordinary citizens into the decision-making
process I suggest that a percentage of the House of
Commons, say 10% of the total, i.e. between 30 and
40 additional seats, should be chosen from different
regions of the country in the manner in which we
choose juries from groups of citizens picked at
random from telephone directories.
The details for this radical change would have to be
worked out by a citizens’ committee, and should be
54
directed towards offsetting the highly undemocratic
preponderance of males and of certain professions:
almost 83% of our MPs are men; 40% of them come
from business, finance, and management occupations,
another 38% are drawn from the legal profession.
These are the very people interested in perpetuating
their privileges. The additional MPs drawn from the
general public should be used to add more women to
government as well as people from the ranks of
nurses, farmers, teachers, factory workers, artists, the
unemployed, and the young.vii
Step 12:
Finally, let us retire the Senate – that gravy-train for
men and women appointed to lifetime sinecures by
the party in power for toadying long and loud enough
to them and their politics, and who are expected to
continue to do so after their lucrative appointment.
This has become a legalized form of shameless
patronage. The occasional distinguished Canadian
amongst them does not change the entirely
undemocratic nature of the institution. In place of this
expensive extravaganza, I suggest an Assembly of
Citizens, perhaps half the size of the Senate,
composed of individuals appointed by or elected in
the provinces on the basis of good citizenship. Two
or three members from each province and territory
should be sufficient; and they should be rotated every
two or three years. Their function would be to
propose, scrutinize and veto government legislation.
It should be obvious that the last two steps are
interdependent. The creation of a strong Assembly
of Citizens with the appropriate legislative powers
would certainly diminish the need for appointing
ordinary citizens to parliament on the basis of a
process of random public selection, though I wouldn’t
want to dismiss the idea out of hand.
None of the 12 steps I have proposed as the path to
democracy are chiselled into stone. They are
proposals, to be examined, honed and vetted by men
and women from both inside the political process and
those outside. Nor am I naïve enough to expect to see
all these changes in my lifetime. But unless we take
serious steps in the direction in which these proposals
point, steps on the road to a government of, by, and
for the people, our future is doubtful. Time is running
out. Some disasters have already become inevitable.
If we are to avoid the worst we must make important
decisions now, decisions that run counter to the
consumerism that we are being sold as a panacea
when it is, in fact, the source of our undoing. We must
learn that Bigger is not Better, but that Smaller is
Smarter; and we must act accordingly. Our planet can
no longer sustain the pampered, selfish dolce vita
many now claim as their birthright. Sacrifices will
have to be made, and voices of reason, still too few
and far between, must grow louder and guide us. We
will be judged for our actions by the survivors of the
disasters that are descending on us. Martin Luther
King’s memorable injunction applies to our situation
today: “If we do not act, we shall surely be dragged
down the long, dark, and shameful corridor of time
reserved for those who possess power without
compassion, might without morality, and strength
without sight.”viii
Note
The above address was delivered to a luncheon meeting
of CACOR on October 1, 2007.
Endnotes
i From about 500 BCE (Cleisthenes) to the end of the
Lamian war (323/322 BCE)
ii 2.7 billion in 2001, according to UNESCO figures
iii According to Lewis Lapham the “the ten most highly
paid CEOs” earn “an average of $ 154 million a year”,
“When in Rome”, Harper’s, Jan. 2003, p. 9
iv American newspapers reported 60% support on the
front page, and only in the back pages did you discover
that this figure included 23% who wanted the USA to go
to war against Iraq only with the approval and support of
the United Nations!
v Senator Robert Byrd (D., W.Va.), one of the few to
protest loudly, called the support of the Congress “a
betrayal of the Constitution” and warned Bush against
precipitate action: within 3 days he received 50,000 letters
and e-mails plus 18,000 phone calls supporting his dissent.
(Lapham, Harper’s, Dec. 2002, pp.10-11)
vi W. Lippmann, The Phantom Public (New York:
MacMillan, 1927), pp. 39 and 155
vii The average age in the current House is 52; we would
benefit from an infusion of younger blood. Old age does
not in and of itself bestow wisdom, or elephants would
lord it over us.
viii Martin Luther King, “Beyond Vietnam – A Time to
Break Silence”, speech delivered April 4, 1967 at Riverside
Church, New York City.
© Henry Beissel 613-845-0670 hebe@rogers.com
Endnotes continued from page 7 re The Approaching
Collapse of Industrial Civilization:
100 to 10,000 times– the consensus is settling at about
1,000 times – higher than in preindustrial times.”
(5) The 29 page report by James Hansen and five other
scientists, titled “Climate change and trace gases”, was
published online 18 May 2007. For a brief summary of
the report refer to an article dated 21 June, 2007 by Steve
Connor, Science Editor of The Independent.
(6) Refer MuseLetter #181 dated May 2007 by Richard
Heinberg.
(7) Refer a letter dated 16th June, 2006 from Dr. Alexander
King, published in Proceedings, Series 3 / No. 10, pg 22
(8) An example of the absurdity that a solution to problems
related to growth is growth itself is the following statement
made by US President H. W. Bush in 1992: “Twenty years
ago some spoke of limits to growth. But today we know
that growth is the engine of change. Growth is the friend
of the environment.”
(9) E. O. Wilson, one of the greatest contemporary
biologists, refers to “the bottleneck” as a crisis beyond all
earlier experience. He described the crisis with these
words: “Within the earth’s biosphere, a single species has
come to dominate virtually all living systems. For the past
two centuries this species has been reproducing at
bacterial levels, almost as an infectious plague envelops
its host. Three hundred thousand new individuals are
added to its numbers every single day. Its population of
bodies now exceeds by a hundred times the biomass of
any large animal species that has ever existed on land
since the beginning of geological time. The species is us.”
(10) Refer Proceedings, Series 3 / Number 8, page 32.
(11) The Revenge of Gaia by James Lovelock, first
published 2006 by Penguin books.
(12) The term “machine civilization” may have originated
with Harrison Brown in “The Challenge of Man’s Future”,
published by The Viking Press in March 1954.
(13) Refer “Glimpsing the deindustrial age” by John
Michael Greer, published May 23, 2007 by The Archdruid
Report.
(14) Refer The Olduvai Theory by Richard C. Duncan,
Winter 2005-2006, The Social Contract. The Olduvai
Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial
civilization is approximately 100 years: circa 1930-2030.
(15) Refer The Challenge of Man’s Future, page xi, by
Harrison Brown, published by The Viking Press in March
1954.
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 SIGNIFICANT QUOTES
Editor’s Note: As a regular feature in each issue, Proceedings will include quotes of writers and
other persons which are considered to be of significance to the human predicament and the health
and survival of our planetary ecosystem.

End of American Empire

“Drawing parallels with the end of the Roman Empire, Mr. Walker warmed that there were striking
similarities between America’s current situation and the factors that brought down Rome, including
declining moral values and political civility at home, an over-confident and over-extended military
in foreign lands and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government.”
—David Walker, Comptroller General of the US Government August 2007

!
Technically Bankrupt
The United States is now facing a current account deficit that cannot be sustained, a falling
currency, and an energy crisis, all at once. It is now the world’s largest debtor nation, and most
people do not see how it can avoid defaulting on its debt. According to a lot of analysts, it is
technically bankrupt, and is being propped up foreign reserve banks, which hold a lot of dollar-
denominated assets, and, for the time being, want to protect the value of their reserves.
—Michael C. Ruppert April 28, 2007

!
Will We Make It?
The defining question of our times is this: will we make it? There is a real and increasing possibility
that global warming, resource depletion, the growing world population, disease pandemics,
technological anarchy, and the geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and social upheaval
they generate, will coalesce to create a nightmare future for humanity this century.”
—Richard Eckersley, Australian National University September 2007

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