NIIT LTD.

Q3 FY 2008 update HOLD

RESEARCH Sector IT Services I CMP Rs 125 I Target Rs 147

KEY HIGHLIGHTS
STOCK DATA
NIIT Ltd. (NIIT) reported a modest 6% YoY growth in net
Market Cap Rs20.1bn revenues to Rs2.4bn for Q3FY08, on account of rupee
Book Value per share Rs21 appreciation and degrowth in the schools business. However,
Eq Shares O/S (F.V. Rs.2) 165.8
strong traction from individual learning solutions resulted in
Median Vol (12 mths) 216,567 (BSE+NSE)
net profits of Rs 54 mn (before asso. net profit), compared to
52 Week High/Low Rs172/71
Bloomberg Code NIIT@IN Rs16mn last year.
Reuters Code NIIT.BO
z Sustained momentum in Individual Learning Solutions (ILS)

Though Q3 is typically the weakest quarter for NIIT, sustained demand

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
for engineering/GNIIT courses led to a 30% growth in net revenues to
Qtr. Ended Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Rs728mn. OPM of this business expanded by 130bps to 17.9%,
Promoters 30.1 30.2 30.1 underscoring the company’s ability to pass on higher prices and ramping
MFs/FIs 7.2 6.2 4.2 up utilisation.
FIIs 40.9 40.5 44.2
PCBs 5.5 5.2 4.8 z Response to New Businesses is reflected in Enrollments
Indian Public 16.3 17.9 16.7
Sustained scale up resulted in cumulative enrollments touching ~8,400
this quarter, from 909 recorded in the first admission cycle in Q3FY07.
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) This enabled the new business to report a marginal operating profit
for the second quarter in a row.
1M 3M 12M
Absolute (16.4) (15.8) 48.1 z Uncertainty in U.S. corporate business a concern
Relative (9.6) (14.0) 15.2 Though the management has stated that it is not experiencing signs of
clients delaying/reducing their training budgets, we remain cautious on
how things could pan out for this business and would await clarity to
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
emerge on the same ( hopefully by the end of Q4).

NIIT BSE (Rebased)

VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION
178
We are positive on the scalability potential and operating leverage of
141 NIIT’s individual and new businesses. Its schools business strategy of
104
focussing on private schools is also proceeding smoothly. However,
our cautious outlook for the corporate solutions business is based on
67 the uncertainty around the U.S. market and any slackening of demand
30 there could impede Element K turnaround plans thus impacting NIIT’s
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 profitability. Hence, we downgrade our recommendation to ‘HOLD’ with
a price target of Rs147 on a 12 month horizon.

KEY FINANCIALS (CONSOLIDATED) KEY RATIOS

Quarter Ended Yr Ended (March) Yr Ended (March)
Rs mn
Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 20109E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E
Net Sales 2,254 2,702 2,388 4,507 7951 10,202 11,995 13,737 Dil. EPS (Rs) 2.4 3.5 4.2 7.3 9.4

YoY Gr. (%) 104.5 33.0 6.1 13.1 76.4 28.3 17.6 14.5 ROCE (%) 8.4 5.3 9.9 17.4 20.8

Op Profits 145 359 228 603 775 1,114 1,681 2,110 RONW (%) 16.0 20.0 19.8 27.1 27.8

Op. Marg.(%) 6.4 13.3 9.5 13.4 9.7 10.9 14.0 15.4 P/E (x) 51.7 36.2 29.8 17.2 13.3

Net Profits 154 212 139 400 574 696 1,204 1,555 EV/ Sales (x) 4.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.5

Eq Capital 332 332 332 332 332 332 332 332 EV/EBDIT (x) 29.0 28.5 19.8 12.8 9.8

Analyst - Ruchir Desai I ruchird@pinc.co.in I Tel: +91-22-6618 6372 30 January 2008 1


Currency pressures led to
lower than expected
revenue growth...
Individual learning solutions
continues to bring in
operating leverage...
Q4FY06
YoY Growth (%) 138
OPM (%) 11.3
YoY OPM Expansion (BPS) 583
Source: PINC Research
PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
NIIT’s net revenues and net profits (incl. associate net profit) for the quarter were slightly
below expectations due to the currency pressure on the corporate business. However,
better than expected results at individual learning solutions enabled the company to
report net profits (excl. associate net profit).
Actual v Estimate
Rs mn PINC Estimate Actual Var (%)
Net Sales 2,466 2,388 (3.2)
Net Profit 150 139 (7.3)
Source: PINC Research
Individual Learning Solutions (ILS):
This business reported net revenues of Rs728mn, a YoY growth of 30% with operating
margins expanding by 130bps YoY to 17.9%. This has been ILS’ 8th straight quarter of
YoY margin expansion as NIIT has been able to maintain its pricing power, increase
absolute utilisation levels (on an expanding capacity) and reap benefits of operating
leverage of its business model.
Q3 is traditionally the weakest quarter for ILS as it reports a big sequential dip in revenues
and operating margins, as the academic year is well under way. This, along with the
vacation period ( Diwali/Christmas) leads to subdued enrollments and also lowers
sequential utilisation levels.
Comparisons on a YoY basis though, reflects the traction NIIT is witnessing for its
engineering courses/GNIIT due to a positive consumer sentiment. Thus, enrollments
were up 28% YoY to 66,335 with GNIIT enrollment being higher by 36% YoY.
Utilisation levels in Q3FY08 were at 46%, (49% last year) on capacity which was enhanced
by 22% YoY (higher than expected). Absolute utilisation levels rose ~15% YoY despite
aggressive capacity expansion, conveying the buoyant demand for NIIT’s course offerings.
NIIT believes that the current pricing environment is at an appropriate level. However, if
wage inflation were to spike up, there would an opportunity to increase course fees.
Higher than anticipated capacity expansion activities and a positive consumer sentiment
has led us to revise our FY08 and FY09 estimates for this business to Rs 3.3bn and 3.9bn
with OPM of ~20.9% and 22.9% respectively. For FY10, this has the potential to increase
to Rs4.7bn and 23.9%.
Operating Profit Growth (YoY in %)
Q1FY07 Q2FY07 Q3FY07 Q4FY07 Q1FY08 Q2FY08 Q3FY08
516.7 97 9400 37.8 36.4 76.5 39.8
15.7 17.7 16.6 19.8 16.5 23.9 17.9
1180 440 1690 850 80 620 130
School Learning Solutions (SLS):
This business reported a 5.8% YoY dip in net revenues to Rs213mn as the Andhra Pradesh
government contract ended. OPM improved by 220bps to 14.1% and resulted in operating
profit of Rs 30mn (+11% YoY). This improvement has been due to NIIT’s conscious
strategy to reduce its exposure to government contracts and control receivables.
However, NIIT continues to bid for select government contracts and it secured two orders
from Himachal Pradesh and Tripura governments. The former is for 263 school and the
latter for 150 schools, which is divided amongst three vendors including NIIT.
The Andhra Pradesh (A.P.) contract which ended this quarter was providing ~Rs75mn/
quarter and would now provide ~Rs35mn/quarter as NIIT would still be providing certain
services surrounding this contract. Despite a revenue dip this quarter, NIIT is confident of
scaling up revenues as it continues to expand its order book, which witnessed a fresh
order intake of Rs283mn this quarter, leading to a pending order book of Rs895mn.
2
 Its strategy of focussing aggressively on private schools continues to be reflected in the
revenue growth from this business, which increased 22% YoY and saw its share improve
to 28% of school learning solutions as compared to 21% in Q3FY07. NIIT currently covers
around 940 schools. Accordingly, our FY08 and FY09 estimates for SLS remain unchanged
at Rs905mn and Rs1.1bn with an OPM of 13.1% for both years. For FY10 we expect net
revenues of Rs1.3bn and an OPM of 13.3%.

Govt/Pvt. School Revenue Split (%)

Gov t. Pv t. School
100

75
Share of private schools
business continues to
50
increase (YoY)...
25

0
Q1FY07 Q2FY07 Q3FY07 Q4FY07 Q1FY08 Q2FY08 Q3FY08
Source: Company

Corporate Learning Solutions (CLS):

This business continues to be impacted by appreciation of the rupee which has occurred
Rupee appreciation is over the last 12 months. Thus, its net revenues (organic+ElementK) were down by 4.7%
leading to margin YoY to Rs1.4bn and operating margins dipped 270bps to 4.7%.
pressures...
With a majority of costs being in INR and >80% of revenues from the North American
market, rupee appreciation would depress margins and is a concern going forward.
However, the management believes that the integration of EK is on track and is ahead of
internal targets in terms of revenue and margins.
The organic business is going through a rough patch as the acceptance of higher prices
has not gone down well with clients which therefore is impacting operating margins.
The management is confident of achieving 25% growth rate in FY08 and has stated that
there are currently no signs of clients delaying/cutting training budgets. However, we
remain cautious and would prefer greater clarity to emerge on the same by end of Q4 as
further deterioration in the U.S. economy could impact such budgets which are
discretionary. Also adverse shifts in client spends would affect EK integration plans.
Cut/slowdown in training While our estimates for this business remain unchanged currently, they could be revised
spends would impact if U.S. market dynamics undergo a change in the coming quarter. In FY10 we expect net
turnaround plans at EK... revenues of Rs6.9bn and an OPM of 9.9%.
Developments:
During the quarter, NIIT expanded its corporate learning solutions portfolio by acquiring
‘Evolv’, which is an English language training entitity with a team of 120 trainers. This
offers English language and soft skill training to clients in the BFSI, IT/ITES and retail
industry and had revenues of Rs80mn in FY07.
This acquisition is not expected to have a significant impact in the near future due to its
size, but NIIT believes that with a growing services industry, there is expected to be an
increased demand for such skills training as corporates look to outsource these training
activities to third parties as they offer cost advantages and reduce the pressure on in
house training activities.
New Businesses (IFBI & NIIT Imperia):
Net revenues from the new businesses were at Rs76mn in Q3FY08, compared to Rs25mn
last year as the attractive response to these courses enabled NIIT to expand centres from
6 last year to 15. Plans are afoot to have 20 centers by end of FY08.
The positive response to its new offerings has resulted in cumulative enrollments for
IFBI+Imperia to touch ~8,400 this quarter from 909 in Q3FY07. While this increase led
the business to report another quarter of marginal operating profits, the same was below
our estimates. This was due to NIIT establishing franchise relationships for three of its
centers, which led to lower than expected revenues due to revenue sharing.
3
IFBI & Imperia enrollments During the quarter, IFBI launched the Post Graduate Diploma in Financial Planning in
have been extremely partnership with ICICI Securities. This is another initiative by IFBI to expand its product
strong on back of offering focussed on the BFSI space. This specific course is of six months duration which
increased capacities... includes a three months internship and commands a fee of Rs50,000.
IFBI also inked partnerships with YES Bank and HDFC Bank for recruitment of students
completing the PGDBO (Post Graduate Diploma in Banking Operations).
We continue to remain positive on the prospects of this business due to the scale and
operating leverage it can exhibit . Our FY08 and FY09 revenue estimates remain unchanged
but due to lower than expected operating profits this quarter, we now do not expect this
business to report positive operating margins in FY08. This would however change in
FY09 and the business would be able to exhibit double digit OPM. For FY10 we expect net
revenues from the new businesses to be at Rs886mn with an OPM of 15.1%.
OUTLOOK & VALUATIONS:
Increased buoyancy in individual learning solutions has led us to marginally revise upwards,
NIIT’s business model our net revenue, OPM and net profit figures for FY08 and FY09. For FY08, we expect net
offers a high degree of revenues of Rs10.2bn and net profits (including associate PAT) of Rs696mn. In FY09 we
operating leverage which expect net revenues of Rs12bn with net profits of Rs1.2bn. We expect an overall OPM of
can lead to substantial 10.9% in FY08 and 14% in FY09 as the new businesses report profitability and EK’s
earnings growth... contribution to operating profit also increases.
In this update we also introduce FY10 estimates and for that period we expect net
revenues of Rs13.7bn and net profits (including associate net profit) of Rs1.6bn. OPM is
expected to improve further to 15.4% as NIIT gains from the operating leverage its
businesses are expected to provide. This is reflected in the CAGR growth rates of net
profits from core operations (excl. associate net profit) which are expected to grow at a
CAGR of 66% (FY07-FY10E) as compared to CAGR net revenue growth of 19.8% (FY07-
FY10E).
At the CMP of Rs118, NIIT is trading at a P/E of 17.2xx and EV/EBIDT of 12.8x. We
continue to remain positive on NIIT’s various businesses as they have the potential to
We expect profits from provide significant earnings growth going forward due to the tremendous operating leverage
core operations to grow by that they offer. However, there is a huge overhang on the business prospects of EK as any
66% CAGR (FY07-10E)... slackness in U.S. economy would impact corporate training and thus affect the turnaround
plans at EK. This has the potential to affect NIIT’s profitability substantially and impact its
valuation metrics. Hence, we downgrade our recommendation to ‘HOLD’ with a price
target of with Rs147 over a 12 month horizon, and would prefer to await clarity on the
above factors in the coming quarters before revising our stand.
Revised Estimates
Rs mn Earlier Estimate Revised Estimate % Change
Net Revenues FY08 FY09 FY08 FY09 FY08 FY09
Individual Learning Solutions 3,183 3,884 3,252 3,946 2.2 1.6
Schools Learning Solutions 905 1,087 905 1,087 No Change No Change
Corporate Learning Solutions 5,724 6,334 5,724 6,334 No Change No Change
New Businesses 321 628 321 628 No Change No Change
Total Net Revenues 10,133 11,932 10,202 11,995 0.7 0.5
Operating Profit
Individual Learning Solutions 663 869 681 904 2.7 4.0
Schools Learning Solutions 119 142 119 142 No Change No Change
Corporate Learning Solutions 316 557 316 557 No Change No Change
New Businesses 10 78 (2) 78 (120.0) No Change
Total Operating Profit 1,108 1,644 1,114 1,681 0.5 2.3
Net Profit 341 783 346 791 1.5 1.0
Associate Net Profit 350 414 350 414 0.0 0.0
PAT 691 1,197 696 1,204 0.7 0.7

Company description:
NIIT Ltd, established in 1981, is a leading provider of IT related education. Over the
years it has diversified from providing IT education to individual students and now also
caters to government/private schools and corporates. It has spread its presence across
India and also operates in other regions such as China, Asia Pacific and Africa. It
recently ventured into the non IT education space by launching Imperia and IFBI.
4
 Financial Results for the quarter & nine months ended 31 December 2007 (Consolidated)
Quarter Ended Nine Months Ended Year Ended
Particulars (Rs Mn)
31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/03/07

Net Revenues 2,388 2,251 6.1 7,344 5,384 36.4 7,951

Total Expenditure (2,160) (2,073) 4.2 (6,612) (4,813) 37.4 (7,176)

Operating Expenses 2,160 2,073 4.2 6,612 4,813 37.4 7,176

Operating profit 228 178 28.1 732 571 28.2 775

Other Income (32) (46) - (129) (46) - (55)

PBDIT 196 132 48.5 603 525 14.9 720

Depreciation 127 125 - 402 344 - 473

PBT 69 7 885.7 201 181 11.0 247

Provision for current tax 15 (9) - (45) (7) - 4

PAT 54 16 237.5 246 188 30.9 243

Associates Net Profit 85 92 (7.6) 259 213 21.6 331

Net Profits 139 108 28.7 505 401 25.9 574

Equity Capital 332 332 332 332 198

Reserves (excl. rev. res.) - - - - 2,863

EPS (Incl Assc. Net Profit) (Rs) 0.8 0.7 28.7 3.0 2.4 25.9 29.0

EPS (Excl. Assc. Net Profit) (Rs) 0.3 0.1 237.5 1.5 1.1 30.9 12.3

Book Value - - - - 21

OPM (%) 9.5 7.9 10.0 10.6 9.7

NPM 2.3 0.7 3.3 3.5 3.1

Exp. (% of Net Sl.)

Cost Of Revenues 90.5 92.1 90.0 89.4 90.3

Median PE v/s Daily PE PE Band

Daily PE Median PE 300
120
60x
225
90
48x

60 150 36x

24x
30 75
12x

0 0
Apr-03 Jun-04 Aug-05 Oct-06 Jan-08 Apr-03 Jun-04 Aug-05 Oct-06 Jan-08

5
 Financial Results for the quarter & nine months ended 31 December 2007 - ILS
Quarter Ended Nine Months Ended Year Ended
Particulars (Rs Mn)
31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/03/07

System Wide Revenues 1,597 1,279 24.9 5,145 4,063 26.6 5,655
Net Revenues 728 560 30.0 2,341 1,798 30.2 2,470
Total Expenditure (598) (467) 28.1 (1,873) (1,496) 25.2 (2,037)
Operating Expenses 598 467 28.1 1,873 1,496 25.2 2,037
Operating Profit 130 93 39.8 468 302 55.0 433
OPM (%) 17.9 16.6 20.0 16.8 17.5

Financial Results for the quarter & nine months ended 31 December 2007 - SLS
Quarter Ended Nine Months Ended Year Ended
Particulars (Rs Mn)
31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/03/07

Net Revenues 213 226 (5.8) 632 618 2.3 847

Total Expenditure (183) (199) (8.0) (545) (545) 0.0 (749)
Operating Expenses 183 199 (8.0) 545 545 0.0 749
Operating Profit 30 27 11.1 87 73 19.2 98
OPM (%) 14.1 11.9 13.8 11.8 11.6

Financial Results for the quarter & nine months ended 31 December 2007 - CLS
Quarter Ended Nine Months Ended Year Ended
Particulars (Rs Mn)
31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/03/07

Net Revenues 1,371 1,439 (4.7) 4,174 - - 4,560

Total Expenditure (1,306) (1,333) (2.0) (3,968) - - (4,205)
Operating Expenses 1,306 1,333 (2.0) 3,968 - - 4,205
Operating Profit 65 106 (38.7) 206 - - 355
OPM (%) 4.7 7.4 4.9 - - 7.8

Financial Results for the quarter & nine months ended 31 December 2007 - New Businesses
Quarter Ended Nine Months Ended Year Ended
Particulars (Rs Mn)
31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/12/07 31/12/06 Gr % 31/03/07

System Wide Revenues 91 25 264.0 211 38 455.3 73

Net Revenues 76 25 204.0 196 38 415.8 73
Total Expenditure (74) (73) 1.4 (228) (124) 83.9 (164)
Operating Expenses 74 73 1.4 228 124 83.9 164
Operating Profit 2 (48) 104.2 (32) (86) 62.8 (91)
OPM (%) 2.6 (192.0) (16.3) (226.3) (124.7)

6
 Year Ended March (Figures in Rs mn)

Income Statement 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E

Revenues 3,984 4,507 7,951 10,202 11,995 13,737

YoY Gr. (%) 13.1 13.1 76.4 28.3 17.6 14.5
Total Expenditure 3,509 3,933 7,176 9,088 10,314 11,627

Operating Profit 475 574 775 1,114 1,681 2,110

YoY Gr. (%) 13.1 13.1 35.0 43.7 50.9 25.5

Interest & dividend income 87 65 (55) - - -

EBIDT 562 639 720 1,114 1,681 2,110

(-) Interest - - - 158 129 100

(-) Depreciation 345 374 473 540 599 655

PBT & extraordinary items 217 265 247 416 953 1,355

(-) Tax provision 10 29 4 70 162 230

Profit after Tax 207 236 243 346 791 1,125

YoY Gr. (%) 13.1 13.1 2.9 42.3 128.7 42.2

(+) Associate Net Profit 149 164 331 350 414 430

Net Profits 356 400 574 696 1,204 1,555

YoY Gr. (%) 13.1 13.1 43.5 21.2 73.2 29.1

Fully diluted Eq. sh. O/s (mn no) 165.8 165.8 165.8 165.8 165.8 165.8

Book Value (Rs) 17 19 21 24 30 38

EPS (excl. assc. PAT) (Rs) 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.1 4.8 6.8

EPS (incl assc. PAT) (Rs) 2.2 2.4 3.5 4.2 7.3 9.4

Balance Sheet 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E

Equity Share Capital 193 193 198 332 332 332

Preference Share Capital 56 56 56 56 56 56

Reserves & Surplus 2,156 2,476 2,863 3,627 4,595 5,914

Net worth 2,405 2,725 3,117 4,015 4,983 6,302

Total Debt 412 1,090 2,693 1,902 1,549 1,196

Deferred Tax liability - (20) (20) (20) (20) (20)

Capital Employed 2,817 3,795 5,790 5,897 6,512 7,478

Fixed Assets 1,238 1,386 3,137 3,218 3,269 3,114

Net current assets 1,155 2,009 1,973 1,649 1,799 2,490

Investments 424 400 680 1,030 1,444 1,874

Misc exp. - - - - - -

Total Assets 2,817 3,795 5,790 5,897 6,512 7,478

7
 Year Ended March (Figures in Rs mn)

Cash Flow Statement 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E

PBT & Extraord. items 217 265 246 416 953 1,355
Depreciation 345 374 473 540 599 655
Interest & dividend inc. (9) (19) 55 - - -
Interest paid 23 46 - 158 129 100
Misc Exp W/off - - - - - -
Tax paid 6 (49) (4) (70) (162) (230)
(Inc)/Dec in working capital (446) (592) 127 154 (50) (150)
Other Adjustments 85 103 - - - -
Cash from operations 222 128 897 1,198 1,469 1,730
Net capital expenditure (696) (419) (2,224) (620) (650) (500)
Net investments 374 53 51 - - -
Interest recd 57 19 (55) - - -
Cash from investing activities (265) (347) (2228) (620) (650) (500)
Issue of eq. shares - - 4 - - -
Preference Shares Repaid 22 - - - - -
Change in debt 148 678 1,603 (353) (353) (353)
Dividend paid (109) (120) (144) (237) (237) (237)
Interest paid (23) (46) (41) (158) (129) (100)
Cash from financing activities 38 512 1,422 (748) (719) (690)
Inc/Dec. in cash (5) 293 91 (170) 100 540

Key Ratios 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E

EBIDT (%) 11.9 12.7 9.7 10.9 14.0 15.4

ROACE (%) 11.1 8.4 5.3 9.9 17.4 20.8

ROANW (%) 20.4 16.0 20.0 19.8 27.1 27.8

Sales/Total Assets (x) 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8

Debt:Equity (x) 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2

Current Ratio (x) 2.2 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6

Debtors (days) 114.0 151.0 121.0 111.0 108.0 108.0

Inventory (days) 8.0 8.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Net working capital (days) 73.0 110.0 57.0 39.0 34.0 34.0

EV/Sales (x) 4.5 4.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.5

EV/EBIDT (x) 32.0 29.0 28.5 19.8 12.8 9.8

P/E (x) 58.1 51.7 36.2 29.8 17.2 13.3

P/BV (x) 7.5 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.2 3.3

8
 Team

Equity Desk Ashish Dangi - Associate - Lifestyle / Retail Products

R. Baskar Babu - Head - Equity Broking
baskarb@pinc.co.in 91-22-66186465
Gealgeo V. Alankara - Head - Institutional Sales
alankara@pinc.co.in 91-22-66186466
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9
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