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Evolution of the world population 1950/2050 - The case of Asia (1)

In the long run, it seems that in Asia the most dynamic nucleus of global
capitalism, especially from China, will be established, with capitalism
controlled by a tentacular party-state that learned lessons from the failure of
Soviet state capitalism. This dynamic depends greatly on the incorporation of
Europe and has benefited from the evident decay of the United States which,
in turn, had surpassed Europe after World War II.

This change is being made by building China's political and business networks
and by new inequalities and strategically defensive US wars based on their
apparent military supremacy. What human costs will these changes have?

Summary

1 - Asia, once cradle of civilization, reassumes itself as the new center of the world
1.1 - The predominance of Europe through colonization and capitalism decays after 1945
1.2 - Europe, again an Asian peninsula?
2 - Demographic profile of Asian geopolitical areas
2.1 - Demographic trends in the Near and Middle East

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1 - Asia, once cradle of civilization, reassumes itself as the new center of the world

Asia hosted the cradle of human civilization, after the first men left Africa, from the Rift
Valley, which is believed to be around 170000 BCE (Before the Common Era1). This
trip corresponded to the installation in Mesopotamia, Arabia and the Iranian plateau
about 146000 BCE. Human occupation of northern India will have occurred around
125,000 years of BCE and that of China and Indochina about 30,000 years later
(95000 BCE).

Although geographically close to Mesopotamia, the human presence will only have
occurred around 38000 BCE in areas such as the Caucasus, the Balkans or Southern
Italy; at a time when the humans of Indochina or Southern China certainly arrived in
Australia, taking advantage of the level of sea water, much lower than it is today and
favouring the passages.

The expansion throughout Europe continued, with humans arriving in the Iberian
Peninsula, Southern Britain and Denmark in 29000 BCE; as well as in Siberia. As far

1
BCE is a way of presenting the chronology without connecting it with any religion, like the traditional BC
(before Christ); if convenient it can be used CE (Common Era) for the times after an instituted year zero.

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as Europe was concerned, by the time of 18000 BCE, it all incorporated Paleolithic
colonies of humans, except Scotland and Scandinavia; by this time, the humans
crossed the Strait of Bering, beginning the colonization of the American continent.

It was in Asia that the domestic species of fruit, cereals, leguminous plants and
vegetables were first domesticated which allowed Man to become less dependent on
hunting, catching fish and collecting fruit here and there, depending on the luck he had
while wandering in space. These first steps towards sedentarization and the
emergence of agriculture first appeared independently in the so-called Fertile Crescent
- then much more humid than today - and in China.

The humans who settled in these two Asian regions were no smarter than their
counterparts who in the meantime were spreading across the globe. Its advantages
were provided by the climate that offered them autumn rains and summer heat, in a
very favorable cycle for most plant species; these, in turn, attracted animals, herbivores
and their carnivorous predators. This relative regularity of the climate enabled men to
adapt easily to their spirit of observation, for example, for the selection, by size, of
cereal grains - wheat and barley and rice in China - preferring the larger ones, to
proceed to their priority reproduction.

It was in Asia that agriculture was generated and the domestication of animals,
producers of meat, milk and ability to apply their force in the work of the earth, as
assembled and in traction, from the moment the wheel was invented in Mari, in
present-day Syria around 2850 BCE. This did not happen, for example, in the isolated
American continent, before the arrival of Cortez and Pizarro, since there were no large
mammals as mounted or working animals on the Mexican plateau; or were not
adaptable to such, as the mud, among the Incas.

Agriculture has sedentarized people, created new roles, and the complexity of societies
increased; and sharpened curiosity, creativity and experimentation with a multiplier
effect. Thus, the techniques used were emerging, here and there, transmitting, through
space ... without patent registration. The Neolithic comes to India and the Balkans,
around 6400 BCE and the pottery is born in Mesopotamia, benefiting from the
abundance of water and clay.

Other knowledge or core creations in the fourth millennium BCE are: domestication of
horses in Siberia, production of linen in Syria, silk in China and shipping in Egypt. In the
third millennium, we listened to the cuneiform tablets in Elam, bronze and coin in
Sumeria, the 365-day calendar and honey in Egypt, tea in China, and also in the
passage to the second millennium BCE, etc.

We also bear in mind the codes of Ur-Nammu (2040 BCE) and Hamurabi 270 years
later, both in Mesopotamia, with the aim of establishing laws that would govern the
rights and duties of the community. In Rome, in 450 BC, the 12 Tables of Law were

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established the basis of Roman law, which in turn was the foundation for the current
legal systems in Europe.

Not everything was positive. In Asia, religions that shape or manipulate minds, which
generate hatred, conflict and war, have arisen, especially in the case of the so-called
"Book" - Judaism, Christianity and Islam; on a scale far superior to the others, also all
born there - Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism; in addition to Confucianism, which is more
like a public morality than a religion.

In Europe, the Minoan culture appears in Crete, linked to Ebla, an existing civilization
where today is Syria, about 2500 BCE and is transmitted to the Peloponnese,
constituting both the most developed areas of Europe at that time. Around 1630 BCE,
the Indo-European Achaeans, the bearers of the bronze culture, were imposed in
Greece and, a little more than 500 years later, were overtaken by the Dorians, who
knew iron and came from Macedonia.

In 1070 the Greeks settled in Illyria, Corsica and Sardinia, and in 779 recorded with
Etruria, what may be called the first European state. At that time it is the foundation of
Rome and the installation of the Greeks in the Crimea and in the south of France. The
Greco-Persian Wars (495 BCE) show the existence of a development in this part of
Europe somewhat similar to that of Western Asia.

In the meantime, Rome unleashes an unstoppable expansion in the Mediterranean


basin, which will, in its entirety, frame a Mare Nostrum; in western Asia, a long-standing
civilizational and militarily irregular front is formed between Rome and the Parthian
empire, and then the Sassanid, which will end with Arab expansion in the seventh
century.

The collapse of the Roman empire through various generals' shares was accentuated,
especially in the west, with a collapse of imperial unity following the barbarian
invasions. The Byzantine empire, the bearer of Greco-Roman culture, well established
in the eastern Mediterranean, gradually weakened by the 8th-century Muslim
expansion, the action of the Crusaders and their Venetian or Genoese allies, and the
Turks, Seldjucids and later on the Ottomans.

The Ottomans were the last threat to Europe, coming from Asia, first played at sea in
Lepanto (1571) and later with a failed second Turkish siege to Vienna (1683). At that
time, globalization began, symbolically, with the arrival of Gama in India, the circum-
navigation of Magellan, and the re-discovery of America. Europeans began to seize the
maritime trade in Asia, followed by the occupation of territories and the colonial
partition that ended in the late nineteenth century; further benefiting from the voluntary
isolation of China, the most powerful state globally, in the fourteenth century.

1.1 - The predominance of Europe through colonization and capitalism decays after
1945

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European colonization sank the Indian economy and society into poverty and was
followed in the 19th and 20th centuries by the Japanese in China and Korea after
taking the appropriate lesson from the threat of bombing by US Admiral Perry. The
sharing of territories between French, English and Dutch (in Asia, the Portuguese left
little more than the nostalgia of the sixteenth century) was accompanied by the
Americans who subtracted the Philippines to a decadent Spain at the turn of the
twentieth century.

China, too large and populous for a single formal colonizer, was the object of a 20th-
century partnership between the major European powers, the United States, and
Japan. Russia began in the seventeenth century the occupation of Siberia, the
Caucasus and states of central Asia. Persia and Afghanistan fled from a typical
settlement due to rivalry between the British and Russians, in addition to the military
defeats that Britain suffered at the hands of the Afghans.

Already in the twentieth century, after the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire,
English and French shredded the Arab world. The first received the correspondent to
Iraq, Palestine and an artificial Jordan (delivered to a family of dignitaries, the
Hashemite); later on, followed by the crime of surrendering Palestine and its people to
the genocidal instincts of the Zionists. France, on the other hand, remained with Syria
from which it decided to separate Lebanon, because then it had a Maronite Christian
majority, with "obvious" rights above the Arab Muslims; and later (1938) handed the
sandjak of Alexandretta (now Iskenderun) to Turkey so that it would be neutral in an
already foreseeable Second War.

However, with the discovery of oil in Arabia, the most profiteers are a tribe of desert
robbers - the Sauds - who overcomes the other tribes and conquers the cosmopolitan
Hedjaz, imposing Wahhabi dementia. Its link to oil companies and later to the dollar's
support as a global currency made the Saudi monarchy a centerpiece in the Middle
East, especially for the US; along with the continued existence of the Zionist entity, a
kind of Western fortress, with great superiority in armament in the region (it is the only
country to have atomic weapons, with the tacit support of the Western world).

In the Far East, Japan has developed a strong economy delivering (or forced to deliver)
to the US the suzerainty in the Chinese Sea and the respective costs that should make
the American military industry smile; on the other hand, its historical relations with
China and, above all, with Korea, have generated a flood of damages, of complaints in
which the racism of the Japanese does not help at all. The US has a constellation of
military bases in Japan (Okinawa and more dozens of other military installations);
Guam, a colony in the Marianas; and around thirty in South Korea, focused on the
threat to China and North Korea, in the shadow of the war that has developed for ... 65
years.

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1.2 - Europe, again an Asian peninsula?

The land separation between Asia and Africa takes place on a short stretch of land that
extends the Gulf of Suez with the channel of the same name; and that, in fact, has
never separated anything through time. With America, the separation of Asia is clear
and is processed through the cold strait of Bering.

Between Asia and Europe there is no clear geographical separation, but only purely
conventional, political boundaries. For example, Russia is considered a European
country but the largest part of its territory is in Asia, although in population terms the
largest range is in Europe.

As for Turkey, the same is true, but in reverse, with the territory and population
concentrated in Asia, keeping in Europe little more than the Greater Istanbul. Only
economics and politics admit that Turkey has been a candidate for entry into the EU for
some 40 years, whereas such a scenario has never been put to Russia by the
Community authorities; nor will Russia ever put such a case.

The hypothesis of European integration of Turkey will never be anything else but a
hypothesis. If this were to happen, the country would become the country with the
largest population in the EU (above Germany, where millions of Turks live); on the
other hand, the Turks are overwhelmingly Islamic, something that would find much
opposition from nationalists, racists, islamophobics, whose numbers have grown in the
shadow of the ineptitude of the European oligarchies, who have fed AfDs, LePens,
Salvinis, Wilders and rubble of the same type. The presence of a dictator like Erdogan,
cools the most enthusiastic of the enlargement who, however, accept Orbans and Kurz
at the hard core of the old Habsburg empire; and in the end there is a fear in Europe
that people from the Turkish branch, such as the Azeris and the peoples of Central
Asia, with Turkish agreements with Turkey, in addition to the Chinese ouighurs, will
enter. As for Russia, it is too large and powerful, it offers various anti-bodies to
bureaucrats who would put headaches to the Trump on service; and would never
belong to the meek platoon of a NATO led from Washington. Therefore, there will be
no EU reaching the Urals.

It was agreed to designate Europe as a continent alongside Asia, for reasons more
political and economic than geographical, we repeat; the proud and prejudiced
European political classes would not accept being integrated into an Asian peninsula,
such as India, Arabia, the Malay peninsulas or the ... Kamchatka. The Aegean islands
unite more than separate the great continuous masses on both sides of the sea ... as
perceived by the refugees arriving in Lesbos. The Bosphorus (550 to 3000 m wide) or
the Dardanelles (1500 m) are particularly narrow, with a separation between Europe
and Asia that can be overcome with a few strokes; are much tighter than the Channel
that has, in the narrowest area 33km ... a dimension that certainly did not influence
Brexit; or, narrower than the Strait of Messina (3300 m).

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In the Caucasus, the high mountains separate the current six republics of the Russian
Federation of the others in the south, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Geographically, the latter are contained in Asia, with greater topographic continuities
with Turkey and Iran than with the six Russian republics. It may be thought that since
Georgia and Armenia are of Orthodox Christian culture, they should be included in
Europe, but the same cannot be applied to Azerbaijan, Islamic, Shiite and with strong
links to Iran, where there is also a population of Azerbaijanis. If religious culture is a
determining factor, then the Muslim republics contained in the Russian Federation and
north of the mountain range should be included in Asia. In this work, we decided to
consider the Caucasus mountain range, which in fact has many characteristics that
hinder its crossing, as the separator between Europe and Asia; and that allow it to be a
kaleidoscope of ethnicities and cultures.

If in the Caucasus physical geography can be applied as an element of separation, and


if in the Caspian separation is admitted naturally, this is not the case with the typical
consideration in the Urals or the Volga as separators in Europe and Asia, being an
arbitrary demarcation, of convenience. The Urals do not reach more than 1500/1600 m
of altitude in some points; and in the Yekaterinburg region, for example, they do not
reach 400 m and have never been an obstacle to the Mongol or Tatar invasions, nor
have they contradicted the incorporation of Siberia or the Islamic states of Central Asia
into imperial Russia. When Stalin moved factories east of the Urals, it was not so much
because they were difficult to transpose by the Nazis, but because the effort and
logistics to travel the distance of 1650 km (!) between Moscow and Ekaterinburg, with
ambushes along the way, was not something that Hitler's generals considered to be of
little risk; especially when they could not even take Moscow or the formerly Leningrad.
As for the Volga, it is quite navigable, like all rivers, an element of connection rather
than separation; and when they serve as a border it maintains its porosity.

In fact, Europe is a peninsula of a Euro-Asian continent, with a broad isthmus, of


course, with a population of 745 M in 2016 (10% of Humanity, against 22.7% in 1950),
which contrasts sharply with the 4463 M of Asia (59.8% of the total, compared to
54.3% in 1950).

Bearing in mind the loss of power and protagonism of Europe in the overall framework,
following decolonization; the cultural dwarfism that dominates the majority in the
European political classes, as well as its demographic stagnation, which contrasts with
the explosive African demographics and the growing size of the Asian population, the
Chinese strategy with the creation of the infrastructure network of transport that will
cross the Eurasian continent becomes evident. Does the route taken by Marco Polo
regain importance in relation to the route of Vasco da Gama in the connection between
Asia and Europe? Peyrefitte in 1973, in the path of Napoleon, wrote "When China
Awakens, the World Will Tremble." Perhaps it will not tremble, just as China will not
return to the political insanity of the mandarins in the fourteenth century to sink their

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spectacular ships and close in the cocoon; nor the Trump in service will place carrier
substitutes in Central Asia ... as it does in the Chinese Sea.

In the Global Wealth Review-2018 report, we can see the growth of wealth in the main
countries (in %), recent and in the future, where the decline of Europe is well present;
the indicators have little to do with GDP but rather with the appreciation of capital stock.

2007/17 2016/17 2017/27


USA 20 15 20
China 198 22 180
Japan 22 15 30
Great Britain -2 3 10
Germany 0 5 10
India 160 25 200
France -11 5 10
Canada 25 11 30
Australia 83 17 70
Italy -19 4 10

In the question of the “One belt, one road project”, consider:

 It is, of course, a political project carried out by a country (China) relatively


homogenous in ethnic and cultural terms, with a huge population, in a capitalist
environment, with a centralized and despotic state power that has a long-term
strategy of the conduct of the economy and politics;

 In economic terms, it is a question of facilitating the framing of a rich Europe


with high yields and technological capacities that functions as a market for Chinese
production; in capitalism, whoever does not conquer or invents markets, dies. In
addition to Europe, it is intended to include: Central Asia and the Middle East, with
large energy resources, which are very useful for the duration of the fossil fuels
paradigm; the large populations of South Asia as a reserve of cheap labour and a
huge mass of future consumers; African raw materials and a future market with 2500
M in 2050; and to have on the same side, Russia's energy resources and military
capacity;

 The so-called Silk Road, with all its land and sea variants, is a very extensive
trade network - commodities and energy - that will function in an ongoing
infrastructural network for which China's huge financial resources and the AIIB are
available (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) established in 2017 with 57 founding
countries, most of which are Western European countries, Asia (but not Japan),
Russia and Brazil - the only in the Americas – a fact that shows the US displeasure
with the project ;

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 It is evident that in this context of integration of the three continents - Europe,
Asia and Africa - there will also be a place for a deeper connection in Latin America,
despite its eccentric character in that context; but that it could integrate the two
shores of the Pacific ( the Trans-Pacific Association Agreement (TPP) was launched ,
even with the refusal of Trump and China from abroad, but including, among others,
Japan and Australia, Chile, Mexico and Peru).

 The element implicitly and voluntarily outside this strategy are the US, heirs and
protagonists of the theory of Alfred Mahan2 according to which continental masses
must be monitored and dominated by the "islands" which surround and contain them.
Within this logic, the United States maintains, in and around Asia, a chain of dozens
of military installations, several navy squadrons and areas of permanent insecurity
and war (Middle East and Korea), having as allies the Zionist entity and Saudi Arabia
and other occasional creations like Isis / Daesh, after al-Qaeda; which then, like the
Golem, become uncontrollable, as it has been seen.

2 - Demographic profile of Asian geopolitical areas

As we have done with regard to Europe and the Africa, we measured the evolution of
the Asian population between 1950 and 2016, and a prospective assessment for 2050,
following projections released by UNCTAD, an institution of the United Nations. Thus,
Asian demographics reveal 1374 M people in 1950, 4463 M in 2016 and predicts an
additional 800 M by the middle of this century.

2
Alfred Mahan was an American navy officer who considered it necessary for the preponderance of the
imperial powers (Britain and then, the USA) to possess a powerful navy and naval bases to surround the
great continental masses, especially in Asia
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Although still growing throughout the period, the Asian population, in the global context,
shows that its relative weight regularly rises from 54.3% in 1950 to 60.7% in 2000,
decreasing somewhat by 2016 (59.8%), and the expectations to 2050 corresponds to a
portion of the total, close to that recorded a century ago; that is, 53.8% of the total. This
prediction of relative weight loss in Asia should also occur, especially in Europe and
also more modestly in America; all three continents lose representation in the world
population against Africa as we have seen before. Thus, the Asian population, which in
1950 was six times greater than that of Africa, is 3.7 times higher in 2016 and will be
around twice as high in 2050. As for Europe, the situation has evolved very rapidly,
with Asia having 2.4 times more population than Europe in 1950, and six or 7.3 times
more in 2016 and 2050, respectively. In addition to physical geography indicates
Europe as an Asian peninsula, demography also points to a lesser relevance within the
Euro-Asian mass, as it also happens in comparison with Africa.

We proceed, in order to further detail the demographic approach, to the division of Asia
into two huge areas, substantially separated by the Indus - a separation that comes
from remote antiquity: one will be the Near and Middle East, in the classical and
Eurocentric way of considering the Western Asia, much of it with Islamic culture, and
the other, much less culturally homogeneous, east of the Indus and which we called
Central and East Asia3.

In any of these areas there are different rates of wealth creation and well-being, being
able to separate from the rest, a few anchor countries, as we did for Africa; those
countries which will have a centripetal representativeness and force in relation to
peoples within a more or less extended radius. On the other hand, Asia as a whole has
a determinant planetary influence, especially in the obvious cases of China, India and
Japan, for demographic, economic and political reasons.

3
Near and Middle East - Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates,
Zionist Entity, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Syria, Turkey and
Yemen, where we underline what we considered as regional anchors.

Central Asia and Central Asia - Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Kazakhstan, China
(holding separately for analysis the People's Republic, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), North Korea,
Guam, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritius, Mongolia, Myanmar,
Nepal, Palau, Pakistan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tajikistan, Timor-Leste, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
and Vietnam. The countries we considered as regional anchors are identified with an underline.
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With reference to the year 1970, it is verified that the demographic evolution of Asia in
its total is determined by the Central and Eastern Asia that has a great consideration in
the continent's total; and this gives more emphasis, in the graph, to the set of countries
of Near and Middle East when observed alone. Looking at the graph, we notice that for
Central and Eastern Asia the population grows 2.4 times, while for the Near and Middle
East the increase is more than five times in the projection for 2050.

As a rule, the anchor sets in each of the country blocks have a demographic dynamism
clearly lower than the remaining countries of the same set. In the case of Central and
Eastern Asia, in the 46 years ending in 2016, the population is slightly more than
doubling for the anchor countries but multiplies by 2.7 times for the remaining ones;
and in the projection for 2050, also in relation to 1970, the anchor countries tend to
increase their population 2.1 times, whereas for others the increase could be of 3.6
times.

In the case of the countries of the Near and Middle East the situation is similar to the
one mentioned above, but at much higher levels. The anchor countries show growth
figures clearly below the others, compared to 1970 (2.8 against 4.9 times in 2016); in
forecasts for 2050 increases disproportion (3.4 times for anchor countries and 8.5
times for others in the cluster).

Finally, it should be noted that the demographic growth of the anchoring countries in
the Near and Middle East evolves in parallel with the others (not anchor) in Central and
Eastern Asia; which will reveal - we will not go into the question further - differences in
birth rates and infant mortality, as well as a relative equalization between the

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demographic dynamism between the poorest of the richest and the richest of the
poorest states.

Comparing the situation of the anchor and remaining countries in Africa and the Near
and Middle East in 2016 and 2050, it can be observed that in Africa there is an
approximate demographic evolution between the anchor countries and the remaining
countries; and that in the countries of the Near and Middle East the differences are
much more pronounced. This could be interpreted as a great homogeneity among the
African populations, with indices of population growth indifferent to the situation of
anchor countries or not; and that differences in economic dynamism do not differentiate
levels of population growth.
nº of times the population of 1970
2016 2050
Anchors - Africa 3.2 6.3
Anchors - NM East 2.8 3.4
Remaining - Africa 3.6 8.1
Remaining - NM East 4.9 8.5

2.1 - Demographic trends in the Near and Middle East

The countries of the Near and Middle East can group together in various ways. Almost
all are of Islamic matrix, except Armenia and Georgia where the dominant culture is
based on Byzantine Christianity. The same is true of the Zionist entity politically using a
designation of a "Jewish state" that it is not; first, because historical Judaism has
always been integrated into the other nation-states without aiming to constitute its own
- until the rise of Zionism in the mid-nineteenth century; and, secondly, because in
power a racist, genocidal and unbelieving oligarchy dominates.

Among the states of Islamic culture, most of them have a Sunni population, although
Shiites are dominant in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, Azerbaijan and Yemen (zaidites)
or are major minorities in Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Syria (Alawites) and Turkey. On
the other hand, in Oman, the predominance belongs to the Ibadites, another
expression of the Islamism.

Most of the countries in this group are heavily dependent on fossil fuels - Azerbaijan,
Saudi Arabia, the Emirates (among which only three have hydrocarbons, Abu Dhabi,
Dubai and Sharjah), Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar and Oman, with the Zionist entity having
recently started capturing natural gas at sea. In the others, hydrocarbons have little or
no relative significance; in addition to Bahrain - a pioneer of extraction in the Gulf in
1932 - where exploitation ended, by exhaustion of the deposits.

In many of these countries there are large numbers of immigrants. In Jordan a


substantial part of the population is Palestinian or of that descent. In Saudi Arabia there
is a large minority of Yemenis besides Shiites from the Gulf who, being Saudi, are not
without discrimination, for that reason. Kuwait, Qatar and the Emirates are their natural

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frankly minority and immigrants, mostly Pakistanis, Bangladeshis or Philippines, are
discriminated and subject to large poverty, working mainly in domestic services.

As for demography in the region, there is a great diversity of situations in the period
1970/2016. Firstly, we note the staggering rate of population growth in the Emirates
(83.4% per year), followed by Qatar with "only" 48.8% per annum; in real terms, from
235,000 to 9270,000 in the first case and from 110,000 to 2,570,000 in the second,
following an unusual recourse to immigrants. Other cases of high average population
growth occur in Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

The cases with the lowest annual population growth are recorded in Azerbaijan (1.2%)
and Turkey (2.8%). Compared with Europe, in the same period, only a few countries
have rates similar to or higher than the latter; we speak of ... Andorra (4.8%), S. Marino
(1.6) and Luxembourg (1.5%) as we have recently observed. In sum, Europe's largest
demographic dynamics are at the lowest level that occur in the Near and Middle East.
And this, despite the wars brought to this region by so-called Westerners, whose
meager demographic growth - when it exists - depends essentially on the importation
of cheap immigrants, especially from Africa or the Near and Middle East. "This is
civilization, so said a lord" (Fausto Bordalo Dias, a Portuguese singer).

In the Near and Middle East there are also cases of population reduction in 1970/2016
- Armenia and Georgia - whose losses are respectively -0.3 and -1.1% per year.

As for the outlook for 2050, based on the populations registered in 2016, there is a
marked and widespread fall in the rates of annual population growth, compared to the
period previously mentioned, ending in 2016. For Lebanon there is an average
population decrease of 0.3%, as well as in Armenia and Georgia, in the latter cases,
with a slowing down of the population.

The cases with the highest population growth rates for 2050 are Iraq (3.5% per year),
Palestine (3%) and Syria (2.5%); Iran (0.5%) and Turkey (0.6%), two of the three
nation-states we considered as regional anchors. These last two cases, however,
present indicators much higher than most European countries, if Luxembourg and
Norway are excluded.

Evolution of the population of the Near and Middle East in 2050 compared to 2016

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An interesting comparison between indicators of population growth in 1970/2016 is the
one that relates Palestine (7.1% annually) and the Zionist entity (4.1%), reproducing
this great disproportion in expectations for 2050 (3% and 1.6%, respectively). If we
consider the population of the Palestinian state, adding the so-called "Arabs" of
Palestinian origin who live in the Zionist state (15-20% of the total), adding that their
birth rate is higher than that of the occupiers and, finally, that there are a large number
of immigrants from other places, it can be said that today the Palestinian population is
equated with the Israeli population. If the demographic dynamics until 2050 are
confirmed and a massive arrival of new Jews attracted by the "Israeli homeland" is not
foreseen, it is evident that there is a serious problem that arises, in the long term, to the
so-called Israeli state, revealing its strategic fragility. This frailty remains as long as it is
guaranteed by military power, by the disunity or connivance of the Arab states, and by
the tolerance of Europeans or the declared US support of Trump, as seen in the
episode of recognition of Jerusalem as a Zionist capital, or in the contempt over the

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death of popular Palestinians by the bullets of the FDI / Tsahal, on the anniversary of
the Nakba.

Another issue that continues to exist in the region is the Kurdish identity, divided by
four countries - Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria - with greater weight in the total population
of the first two. The wars in Iraq have elevated the autonomous organization capacities
of the Kurds, benefiting, first from the US protection against Saddam; and after the
same support in the face of the ISIS threat to Kurdish territory, as well as the Iraqi
(Shiite) government in Baghdad. In Syria, Kurdish communities living along the Turkish
border have benefited from Assad's initial military inability to invade ISIS and other
groups to generate areas of self-organization following the expulsion of jihadists from
Kurdish deployment areas in Syria. It is known, however, that for the Turkish
government, his example is seen as a contagious factor for the Kurdish population
living in Turkey; as was noted in the recent Turkish attack on Afrin.

The US has been involved in destabilizing the corridor linking the Syrian / Lebanese
coast to Iraq or Iran, seeking its closure, while Russia is determined to maintain its
unique political and military position in the Mediterranean around of what is called the
Shiite axis. The United States and its regional pawns - mainly Saudi Arabia and the
Zionist entity - failed to overthrow Assad, whose consequences would be the isolation
of Lebanon, dominated by Shi'ite Hezbollah and above all, distancing Iran, whose
access to the Mediterranean would pass through Turkey, also for purposes of
suzerainty in the region. When the defeat of jihadist groups became clear 4 Trump
created a new front of dispute, denouncing the multilateral agreement of 2015
regarding the non use by Iran of nuclear weapons that, however, have been tacitly held
and accepted to Israel for decades.

Turkey, for its part, pursues a zigzag policy. It gives a natural priority to the non-
withdrawal of its Kurdish population; negotiated oil at an early stage with the ISIS that
was fighting Assad; accepted the EU money supply to control / withhold refugees on
their way to Europe; has waited for the right moment to occupy Afrin's Syrian Kurdish
area and, despite being a member of NATO, has been establishing bridges with Russia
with promises of buying sophisticated weapons.

Saudi Arabia several years ago, with the support of the Gulf emirs, had been involved
in a civil war in Yemen, with the aim of gaining wider access to the Indian Ocean, with
control of the eastern shore of Bab el Mandeb and extending the predominance of
Wahhabi in the region, to the detriment of Shi'ism. A little media war for which the
"international community" - aligned by its tenor Trump (as before by Obama) - looks

4
About jihadism see http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2015/11/o-jijadismo-os-semeadores-de-ventos-
e_24.html or http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2016/02/jihadism-wind-sowers-and-storm-victims-1.
(english version)

GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 13/06/2018 14
aside; such as happen with the killing of Palestinian demonstrators by the Zionists,
which also became a routine.

Another chronic focus of conflict in the region is Afghanistan. After the failed Soviet
invasion which largely contributed to the break-up of the USSR, the US intervention at
the head of the "international community"5 in search of Bin Laden and mullah Omar.
With the formation of an Afghan government supported by the USA, they rehearsed a
withdrawal; but the Taliban currently control much of the territory and the US embassy
and government are stationed in a heavily defended "green zone" of Kabul with the
presence of American troops with Portuguese soldiers assisting in airport security of
the capital. In this context, China negotiates with the Afghan government mining areas
and will certainly know how not to fall prey to Taliban attacks.

(to be continued)

Previous texts on the evolution of the world population

Europe

https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2018/05/evolucao-da-populacao-mundial-19502050.html

Africa

https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2018/05/evolucao-da-populacao-mundial-19502050_26.html

This and other texts in:

http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/

https://en.scribd.com/uploads

http://www.slideshare.net/durgarrai/documents

5
On the interventions of the "international community" see
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2015/04/os-naufragios-no-mediterraneo-e-da-ue.html
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2013/05/the-empires-warlike-manoeuvres-in.html
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2012/08/o-militarismo-instrumento-politico-e_18.html
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2012/02/as-manobras-guerreiras-do-imperio-no.html
http://www.slideshare.net/durgarrai/comunicado-da-pagan-sobre-a-intervenido-ocidental-na-lbia
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2012/01/oneoliberalismo-e-geopolitica-no.html
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2012/01/opentagono-e-nato.html

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