9/6/2018 POOLHOUSE and Cygnal Release Virginia Statewide Poll 

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POOLHOUSE and Cygnal Release Virginia

Statewide Poll

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 6th, 2018
Contact: Will Ritter
Will@Poolhouse.co

With 61 days until the first general election of the Trump Presidency, and
campaigns shifting into high gear, we wanted to take a closer look at voter
sentiment in Virginia.
 
POOLHOUSE & Cygnal combined forces, pairing Virginia political know-how
with top-shelf polling, to survey likely Virginia midterm voters. We interviewed
1,199 likely voters in Virginia and had a margin of error of ±2.83%. For this
initial release, we spotlight three questions: Trump’s popularity, the top-of-the-
ticket Senate race, and the generic ballot. More questions results will be
released over the coming days and weeks.
 
Neither POOLHOUSE nor Cygnal is associated with the Trump, Stewart or
Kaine campaigns.

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9/6/2018 POOLHOUSE and Cygnal Release Virginia Statewide Poll 

Key Findings
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The race between Senator Tim Kaine and Corey Stewart is a 5-point
race, roughly 50% to 45%.
Even with worst-case, low-Republican turnout scenario modeling,
the gap widens to 9 points, 51% to 42%. This is better than where
Ed Gillespie was polling against Mark Warner in 2014. Kaine’s
standing in the POOLHOUSE + Cygnal poll mirrors other public
polling results.
The generic ballot is knotted up in Virginia, 47% Republican to 48%
Democrat
President Donald Trump’s fav/unfav is 46/51, 3 points sunnier than the
most recent comparable nationwide poll.

Bullet-Point Analysis

Voter enthusiasm is high. More than 85% of respondents said they will
definitely vote in November.
Similarly, voters are evenly divided (47% GOP / 47% Dem) on the generic
ballot in a normal midterm turnout.
President Trump’s image is still underwater.
Only 4% of respondents were undecided – much lower than other publicly
released polls to date. This likely benefits Stewart, who may have gained
support from “not Kaine” respondents.
This survey shows support of Kaine reaching levels similar to other polling
in VA, but with higher support of Stewart and lower undecided voters. A
key takeaway is that there seems to be a block of voters that will not
break for Kaine. If these voters had to choose today, they would break for
Stewart.
Kaine’s sizeable campaign war chest puts Stewart at a disadvantage as
the campaign goes on. ($6 million vs $142,000 as of most recent FEC
report) However, Kaine is a well-known former governor and vice
presidential nominee in a state that went for Hillary Clinton by 5 points.
Kaine has been advertising on TV for 3 weeks before this poll was
conducted with no competitive advertising from Stewart, and the result is
a very tight race.

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9/6/2018 POOLHOUSE and Cygnal Release Virginia Statewide Poll 

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Methodology Statement
 
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9/6/2018 POOLHOUSE and Cygnal Release Virginia Statewide Poll 

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This probabilistic
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registration-based phone survey was conducted from August
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22 – 24, 2018 with 1,119 responses from likely November 2018 general
election voters. It has a margin of error of ±2.83%. The margin of error for
subgroups may be greater due to limited sample size. Interviewers were
conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) to landline phones, allowing
any registered voter within the household to complete the survey. All data was
collected, processed, and weighted by Cygnal and its affiliate data collection
partners.
 
The partisan makeup of the sample is based on previous midterm election
participation and confirmed by voter response on the survey. Respondents
were asked “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat,
Republican, or Independent?” The collected sample consists of:
 
Republican 30%
Independent 38%
Democrat 31%
 
An alternate “low-Republican” turnout model was created by weighting the
partisan composition of the sample to mirror other publicly released surveys.
The partisan makeup of this model consists of:  
 
Republican 24%
Independent 40%
Democrat 29%
 
The landline sample was stratified based on past participation and current voter
registration within the state of Virginia. Cygnal used statistical weighting
procedures to correct sample deviations from known voter characteristics,
including: age, gender, ethnicity, and DMA.
 
###

Contact Us

Contact: Will Ritter

Co-founder of POOLHOUSE
Will@Poolhouse.co

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9/6/2018 POOLHOUSE and Cygnal Release Virginia Statewide Poll 

 804.257.7136
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poolhouse.co 23 W Broad Street 1372 Peachtree St. NE

info@poolhouse.co Suite 404 Atlanta, GA 30309

 804.257.7136 Richmond, VA 23220  

 

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