October 6, 2010

TO: Aaron Pickrell

FR: Diane Feldman
RE: This week’s tracking poll1
________________________________________________________________________

Our Week 4 tracking poll, conducted October 3-5, 2010, shows Governor Ted
Strickland at 46 percent and Republican John Kasich at 42 percent, a 4-point lead for
Strickland. The Strickland lead expands in the four-way vote as Kasich’s unfavorable
ratings have increased and those voters who do not support Strickland are increasingly
open to alternatives. In the four-way vote, Strickland leads with 44 percent support while
alternative candidates sap Kasich’s support and leave him with just 37 percent. The Green
and Libertarian candidates draw 2 percent each with 15 percent undecided.

Strickland’s favorability ratings stand at 47 percent favorable and 40 percent

unfavorable. For the first time in our polling, Kasich’s unfavorable ratings exceed his
favorable ratings. Currently, 34 percent of voters are unfavorable toward Kasich and only
32 percent are favorable.

Strickland has a stronger and broader base than Kasich. Seventy-six (76) percent
of Democrats are favorable toward Strickland, as are 21 percent of Republicans and 41
percent of independents. In contrast, a bare 51 percent majority of Republican voters are
favorable toward Kasich, as are just 15 percent of Democrats and 33 percent of
independents. Kasich still leads narrowly among independents in the two-way match up,
but his lead is clearly vulnerable given Strickland’s rising favorable ratings and the drop in
Kasich favorability among independent voters.

On our trait comparisons, we continue double-digit advantages on being for

working people (15 points), putting the middle class first (14 points) and improving
education (12 points), and being trustworthy (10 points). We now lead (by 1 point) on job
creation. Kasich leads on putting the wealthy first (by 21 points) and on support for
outsourcing jobs overseas (15 points), both negative traits, and by a smaller margin on
keeping taxes down.

The enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans is rapidly closing. More
Democratic than Republican voters say they plan to vote early both in the mail and in
person (a 10 point gap; two percent of our sample volunteered they had already voted). On
our 10-point scale, enthusiasm has risen to an average of 7.25. It is still higher among
Republicans than Democrats but lowest among independents. One of the biggest gains in
enthusiasm since last week was among union members.
1
Sample size=600; Voters with prior history sampled from voter file and screened for likely voting; margin
of error +/- 4 percentage points

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